Neil Walker
was born and raised in the Pittsburgh area. The hometown kid was a
first round selection of the Pirates (11th overall) in the 2004 draft
out of Pine-Richland High School in Gibsonia, Pennsylvania.
He worked his way through the minor league system with the
Buccos, making his big league debut during the 2009 season as a
23-year-old. Walker would remain with the Pirates through the next six
full seasons, averaging 16 homers and 70 RBI per season while slashing
.273/.338/.433.
While he was never an All-Star, he was always a very solid
regular that found a home in the middle of the Pirates' lineup. He also
loved hitting at PNC Park. Entering play on Friday, Walker was a
.279/.347/.427 hitter with 42 career homers and 199 RBI in the ballpark.
He picked up his 200th (and 201st) career RBI's in the park when he smashed a Chad Kuhl
offering over the wall in right field in the third inning, giving the
Pirates a 3-0 lead. He added to that total his next at-bat, lining
another Kuhl offering over the boards in right for a solo shot.
He also chipped in an RBI single, finishing the night
3-for-5 with three runs scored and four RBI, leading the Mets to an 8-1
victory over his former mates.
Putting up Zeroes
Alex Wood
began the 2017 season as a long reliever in the Dodgers' bullpen after
he failed to win a spot in the Opening Day rotation during spring
training.
The former top prospect got his chance to shine in early April while Rich Hill battled his blister issue and he hasn't looked back.
The 26-year-old southpaw entered Friday's start against the
Cubs riding a 20 1/3 scoreless inning streak. That streak lives on after
firing five shutout innings and striking out eight in a victory on
Friday. Wood now owns a 25 1/3 scoreless inning streak, the longest
streak in the league this season.
On the season as a whole, he has been a godsend to the
Dodgers and fantasy owners alike. With Friday's victory, Wood now sits
at 6-0 on the season. He owns a sparkling 1.69 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 60/15
K/BB ratio across 48 innings.
American League Quick Hits: Chris Archer punched out 11 over 7 2/3 innings in a victory over the Twins... Logan Morrison provided the support there with his 13th home run... Eduardo Rodriguez earned his fourth win with six shutout innings against the Mariners... Jean Segura had three hits and a stolen base in a losing effort... Mike Pelfrey struck out a season-high seven in a victory over the Tigers... Joe Musgrove shut out the Orioles over seven innings in Friday's victory... Ken Giles notched his 14th save with a perfect ninth inning... Devon Travis had three hits including a grand slam in a win over the Rangers... Sean Manaea struck out eight over seven shutout innings in a no-decision against the Yankees... Masahiro Tanaka punched out a career-high 13 in a tough-luck loss there... Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki will sit on Saturday after returning to the lineup on Friday... Ubaldo Jimenez has been bumped from the Orioles' rotation in favor of Alec Asher... Glen Perkins (shoulder) could begin facing live hitters next week... Corey Kluber
fired five shutout innings in his minor league rehab start with
Double-A Akron. He's expected to rejoin the Indians' rotation next
week... A.J. Griffin was forced to leave Friday's start due to a left intercostal strain... J.A. Happ (elbow) could rejoin the Blue Jays' rotation as soon as Tuesday... Bud Norris was forced to leave his appearance on Friday due to soreness in his right knee. He's considered day-to-day... Cameron Maybin (knee) expects to return to the starting lineup on Saturday... James Shields (lat) will throw a simulated game on Monday.. Yonder Alonso (wrist) missed another game, but was able to hit off of a tee during pregame work... Kendall Graveman was scratched from Friday's start due to soreness in his pitching shoulder... Twins' prospect Nick Burdi was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery... Dustin Pedroia (knee) missed Friday's game but expects to play on Saturday... Jharel Cotton
will be recalled from Triple-A to start against the Yankees on
Saturday.... The Tigers plan to make all veterans available via trade if
they remain under .500 by the end of June.
National League Quick Hits: Antonio Senzatela was brilliant on Friday, shutting out the Cardinals over eight innings at Coors Field... Charlie Blackmon went 4-for-4 with a homer, triple and three RBI in the win... Jaime Garcia fired 6 2/3 shutout innings in a victory over the Giants... Adrian Gonzalez clubbed his first home run of the season in Friday's win over the Cubs... Jake Lamb clubbed his 14th home run of the season as the Diamondbacks rallied to beat the Brewers in extra innings... Corey Knebel suffered a blown save in that one, surrendering a game-tying homer to Chris Iannetta with two outs in the ninth inning... Zack Godley fired six shutout innings in a no-decision there... Junior Guerra pitched well in his return from the disabled list, allowing one run over 5 2/3 innings... Justin Bour belted a three-run homer (his 13th) in a rout of the Angels... Jacob deGrom punched out 10 over 8 1/3 innings of one-run baseball in a victory against the Pirates... Gregory Polanco clubbed a solo homer in his return from the disabled list... Scott Schebler launched his 14th homer in a win over the Phillies... Tim Adleman fired eight innings of one-hit ball to beat the Phillies... Trea Turner, Bryce Harper and Michael Taylor left the yard in a win over the Padres... Yoenis Cespedes
(hamstring) went 0-for-2 with a walk and a run scored while playing six
innings defensively in his first minor league rehab game with High-A
St. Lucie... Rob Segedin is expected to miss the next 4-to-6 weeks after undergoing surgery on his injured right wrist... Manuel Margot is expected to be placed on the disabled list due to his sore right calf... Randall Delgado will make another start for the Diamondbacks on Monday... Cesar Hernandez was held out of the Phillies' lineup due to a minor groin injury... The Nationals acquired lefty-masher Ryan Raburn from the White Sox... Andrew McCutchen was dropped to sixth in the lineup for Friday's game against the Mets... Ryan Braun officially landed on the disabled list with his right calf strain... Tom Murphy (wrist) could begin a rehab assignment next week... A.J. Pollock (groin) is on track to return from the disabled list next week.
There have been times over the past few weeks where Todd Frazier has thought about or discussed trade rumors involving his name.
Usually the White Sox third baseman is answering questions brought about by his friends on the matter.
"They always hit me up," Frazier said. "I
have guys at home who are big Red Sox fans, and they are like, 'It's
going to happen.' I'm like, 'You guys have no clue.' Or Mets fans or
whatever it is.
"It's mainly for them. I've been around it before a bunch of times.
It's just like another day, I guess. Until you get a call or the GM
tells you, I'm not worried about it. I'm worried about being a [member
of the] White Sox right now."
Frazier is in an interesting position as a free agent-to-be in the
midst of a slightly weird season, health-wise. He battled through a
sprained left pointer finger in January, a left oblique strain during
Spring Training, a knockdown bad case of the flu in-season and most recently back stiffness.
As the White Sox return from a 3-7 road trip, the 31-year-old has a
.192 average with five home runs, seven doubles and 19 RBIs -- not
exactly the numbers of what great trades are based upon.
But teams understand Frazier's value, both on the field and in the
clubhouse, and he feels closer at the plate to where he needs to be. He
has a .301 on-base percentage and seems to be tracking the ball much
better offensively. Frazier's two-run single
Todd Frazier singles to plate a pair, extending the lead to 12-2 in the top of the 7th inning
"Just trying to focus on squaring the ball up," Frazier said. "That's
basically it and seeing the ball. No matter what pitch it is."
In a Tuesday night loss to the D-backs in which Frazier hit a long
home run to right-center field, he didn't chase one pitch out of the
strike zone. He only had one hit to show for his work, followed by two
walks on Wednesday, but Frazier feels on the right path back toward his
40-homer, 98-RBI performance of 2016.
"Hopefully I just keep on rolling," Frazier said. "It's one of those
things where you feel good. You don't ever want that feeling to go away.
When it does go away, it's like, 'What the heck happened?' Just keep on
focusing on what I've been doing and just seeing the right pitch I need
to hit."
Frazier spoke at SoxFest and during Spring Training about a desire to
stay with the White Sox, even with the rebuild. That desire might not
be fulfilled and he soon could find himself on a true contender, but he
enjoys serving as the veteran mentor among a group of talented young
prospects, and he would like to extend that unofficial job description.
"No talks or anything," said Frazier of possible contract discussions
with the White Sox. "Hopefully one day they will. It will be a great
opportunity here and just depends on what road they want to go.
"I've expressed to them how much I would like to stay here. We have a
really good time. We have a good mix, and they are learning fast. It
has been fun to watch."
Here’s a look at 10 of the best young players in baseball. 10. Manuel Margot, 22, OF, San Diego Padres
This
spot could have just as easily gone to Hunter Renfroe, Jharel Cotton,
Robert Gsellman or Josh Bell, but we’re going with Manuel Margot for a
number of reasons.
Capable of playing all outfield positions,
Margot has primarily been used in center field due to his ability to
patrol large amounts of space. In Triple-A a season ago, the 22-year-old
Margot recorded 311 putouts and 18 assists, which were each second to
none. Needless to say, his ability to cover ground at Petco Park is
unparalleled.
But that’s not all Margot has in his bag of tricks.
He’s a solid hitter for average and is capable of swiping some bases if
need be. He’s batting .264 on the season but has plenty of extra-base
hits, including six doubles, three triples and four home runs. Margot
has shown he has some pop in his bat, which will undoubtedly improve as
he gets stronger and more accustomed to quality pitching.
And
while he’ll need to refine his decision-making at the major league
level, the base stealing ability will become a more substantial asset
over time (he’s 5-for-10 on attempts this season). 9. Trey Mancini, 25, DH, Baltimore Orioles
Trey
Mancini may not have been discussed among the most exciting rookies in
baseball entering the season, but if that conversation were held right
now, his name would come up repeatedly and no one would bat an eye.
After
hitting three home runs in 15 plate appearances as a late-season
call-up a year ago, Mancini has begun this season by proving to the
Orioles that his power was no fluke. In 106 at-bats so far this season,
Mancini has sent seven over the wall. He’s also hit six doubles, meaning
more than a third of all his early-season hits have been for extra
bases.
If that doesn’t describe the sort of impact he’s had on Baltimore’s lineup, perhaps the reaction of his teammates will.
Mancini
has been so blisteringly hot this season that his teammates, including
Manny Machado, have resorted to using his bats at the plate. In fact, in
a mid-April game, Mancini, Machado and Craig Gentry each hit home runs
over a nine-batter span using the youngster’s Louisville Slugger C243.
8. Trea Turner, 23, SS, Washington Nationals
Trea
Turner was initially a late-season call-up in 2015, but he didn’t play
particularly well. In 2016, that changed drastically when Turner was
given more of an opportunity with the Nationals. He hit .342/.370/.567
with 13 home runs, 40 RBI and an impressive 33 stolen bases.
Those
2016 numbers were enough to warrant NL Rookie of the Year
conversations, where Turner finished second. They were also enough to
warrant starting consideration, which he then went on to secure out of
camp this year.
Although Turner is not hitting for the same
average early in 2017, it remains clear just how much potential he has.
And while far from perfect — there have been some lumps along the way —
Turner is again playing well and proving to Washington why he deserves
to be in the everyday lineup. The 23-year-old is batting .241 but has
nine doubles and four home runs, giving him a .400 slugging percentage.
A
versatile player who can also play in center field if need be, Turner
is more like an old school base-runner and base stealer than anything
else. There are hiccups to his game, but he’s more than capable of
snagging a bag in a critical spot.
7. Michael Fulmer, 24, SP, Detroit Tigers
Michael
Fulmer went from the minor leagues to the AL Rookie of the Year in what
felt like the blink of an eye. There was no transition moment for him —
no late-season call-up the year prior. Fulmer was thrust into the fire,
starting 26 games for the Tigers in 2016, and he did exceptionally well.
As rookie, Fulmer compiled a record of 11-7 with a 3.06 ERA, while
striking out 132 batters in 159 innings. And while the win/loss record
may not be eye-opening, his ERA and 1.119 WHIP as an inexperienced
rookie certainly were.
Through nine games this season, Fulmer looks even better.
He’s
5-2 with a 2.55 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 50 strikeouts in 60 innings. He’s
also displayed increased poise and control on the mound, which has
allowed him to work on both sides of the plate. The No. 44 overall pick
in 2011 is paying off nicely for Detroit.
6. Corey Seager, 23, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
Corey
Seager is already a star. In his first professional season, the
shortstop hit .308/.365/.512 with 26 home runs and 72 RBIs. Those
numbers were good enough to win him the NL Rookie of the Year award, an All-Star nod, the Silver Slugger award, and third place in MVP voting.
That’s all just a sign of things to come for Seager, who is again off to a hot start
in 2017. He’s batting .292 with 12 doubles and seven home runs this
season, giving him an OPS just shy of .900. His 26 walks to 35
strikeouts also represents an improvement over his ratio from a season
ago.
Although some may not like his placement on this list after a
full year of service in the big leagues, it’s important to remember
he’s only 23 years old and has only just begun to scratch the surface of
his talent.
Seager has a career average of .308, which is highly
impressive for a player his age. If he can improve his patience at the
plate and cut down on his strikeouts a bit, he’ll be able to hit
effectively in any ballpark in North America.
5. Dansby Swanson, 23, SS, Atlanta Braves
Another
top prospect who was relatively well known before his late-season
call-up in 2016, Dansby Swanson has already established himself as the
Braves’ shortstop of the future.
The 23-year-old hit
.302/.361/.442 with three home runs, 17 RBIs and three stolen bases in
38 games for the Braves last season, and that was more than enough
evidence to prove he belonged. And while he may be struggling to start
the 2017 season, it’s inevitable that Swanson ultimately turns it around
and becomes a fixture in the NL.
Following his poor April in which he batted just .156, Swanson is batting .288 with an .863 OPS in May.
With
loose hands and good bat speed, Swanson has all the markings of a
contact hitter with a high average. As he continues to develop and gain
strength, he’ll add a little pop at the plate as well. Swanson is also a
solid defender who will get better over time.
His early-season slump aside, Swanson is an exciting young player who should be a mainstay for years to come.
4. Gary Sanchez, 24, C, New York Yankees
Although
Gary Sanchez was long considered one of the Yankees’ best prospects, he
wasn’t continuously in the conversation about the best young prospects
in baseball. Then he got called up in 2016 and went on a tear that
nearly won him the AL Rookie of the Year award.
After mashing 20
home runs and 42 RBIs to go along with a near .300 batting average, the
Yankees were convinced it was time to usher in their next starting
catcher. And although an early-season injury slowed him in 2017, Sanchez
is back behind the plate and is slowly becoming a force in the lineup
once again.
Through 19 games in 2017, Sanchez is batting .270 with
four home runs. He has posted an .811 OPS while playing a premium
position.
In addition to hitting for both average and power,
Sanchez has proven to be a valuable asset behind the plate. He’s
developed a solid rapport with all five members of the Yankees’ rotation
and has, at times, displayed a rocket for an arm.
3. Tyler Glasnow, 23, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Like
several others on this list, Tyler Glasnow was widely known before he
even stepped foot on a Major League diamond. Considered one of the best
pitching prospects in baseball, the clock had been anxiously ticking
until his debut.
Unfortunately for the Pirates and Glasnow,
injuries and a lack of control sullied his first series of games in
2016, but he returned this season with job security and a longer leash.
And while the numbers have been far from remarkable — Glasnow is 2-3
with a 7.34 ERA in eight starts — there’s no denying his ceiling is
arguably unlimited.
The 23-year-old Glasnow features a mid-90s
fastball that bears down on hitters thanks to his 6-foot-8 frame, which
only makes his sharp curveball that much harder to hit. When he’s able
to throw strikes early in the count, he’s almost unhittable. But for the
youngster, it’s all about control and poise, which will come with time.
2. Andrew Benintendi, 22, OF, Boston Red Sox
Andrew
Benintendi was on the scene long before he made it to the majors,
through his first 75 career games, it’s become clear that hype was
completely warranted.
The Red Sox got a brief glimpse into the
future a year ago when Benintendi was called up, but his play so far in
2017 has led to him being dubbed “Lil’ Papi”
— an obvious and deliberate comparison to retired slugger David Ortiz.
And while some say it’s entirely too early for such a nickname, it’s an
indication of where things are headed for Benintendi.
Through the
first month-plus of the season, the 22-year-old Benintendi is also
considered among the favorites to win the AL Rookie of the Year and
rightfully so.
Benintendi is hitting .280/.355/.422 with five home
runs, 24 RBIs and five stolen bases. He posted similar numbers over 34
games last season, as he batted .295 with 11 doubles and two home runs.
Between him and Mookie Betts, the Red Sox have some serious young studs
in the outfield.
1. Aaron Judge, 25, RF, New York Yankees
Aaron Judge may not be the best prospect in baseball, but it’s easy to understand why he’s No. 1 on this list.
After
a somewhat clunky start to the season, Judge caught fire and hasn’t let
up since. He led the Yankees in the early absence of Gary Sanchez,
moving all over the batting order based on matchups, and hitting with
unlimited power. Judge improved his patience at the plate and has played
surprisingly good (and sometimes fearless) defense.
Through 40
games this season, the slugger is batting .315 with five doubles, two
triples and 15 big home runs. His 49 strikeouts are a concern, but if
that’s the cost of a hitter slugging nearly .700, it’s worth it.
The highest-paid player in Red Sox history is about to do something he hasn’t done all year—pitch for the Boston Red Sox.
A former Cy Young winner returning from a major injury will always be front page news, but which version of David Price
will the Red Sox be getting when he makes his season debut Monday
against the White Sox? In the early days of Price, that was never a
question. Back then there was only one version of Price: the one that
showed up every fifth day to put on a clinic. Price was a remarkably
consistent pitcher before joining the Red Sox, recording a minuscule
2.97 ERA with 94 wins from 2010-2015. That six-year stretch would later
become known as the Golden Age of David Price.
Even if it took a little longer than expected, Price’s
return to a big league mound on Memorial Day has to be thought of as a
huge victory, not because of who Price is but because of how dire things
looked for him back in March. I remember escalating the situation to Threat Level Midnight with this panicked Dose
I wrote back in spring training. At that point, Price was being looked
at by famed surgeon Dr. James Andrews, which is usually a worst-case
scenario. It looked dicey for a minute but Price was able to avoid elbow
surgery and now at long last, he’s ready to rejoin the Red Sox’s
starting rotation.
But back to my original thought bubble—which David Price
will be in attendance Monday at Guaranteed Rate Field (which I guess is
what they’re calling Comiskey Park these days)? Coming off a lousy
first year in Boston and an even lousier rehab stint with Triple-A
Pawtucket, Price’s reign as MLB’s Mr. Reliable has come to an abrupt
end. Price’s velocity is about where it should be—he topped out at 95
mph during his rehab while mostly sitting in the 92-94 mph range. But
how can the Red Sox feel any sort of confidence after seeing Price get
bombed for seven hits and six runs (three earned) over 3 2/3 innings
Wednesday in his final tune-up?
I realize there’s a danger in overanalyzing minor league
rehab starts. The main objective is to dust off the cobwebs, which Price
has successfully done over his last two outings. I thought MLB Network
analyst John Smoltz
brought up a fascinating point when he theorized that minor leaguers
tend to save their best for big league stars like Price. For Price,
making the hour-long trek from Boston to Pawtucket is a means to an
end—get your work in and hopefully make enough progress so you’ll never
have to come back. But it’s a much different mindset for the hitters
he’s facing. For fringe players still trying to make their case for the
big leagues, smoking one off a former Cy Young winner would probably be a
good place to start.
And on the other side of the coin, maybe Price was saving a little juice for when the games
actually matter. Price didn’t have his best stuff when he made a rehab
start in 2013, allowing two runs in only 2 1/3 innings for High-A
Charlotte. Once he got back to the big leagues, he went 9-4 with a 2.53
ERA over his final 18 starts. That’s quite the turnaround, though it’s
important to remember that Price was 28 back then and had much less
mileage on his arm than he does now.
As if the shark-infested waters of Boston sports radio
needed another reason to ambush Price, the left-hander set himself up
for scrutiny by ducking out on his media obligations after Wednesday’s
tough outing. Blowing off small-market reporters who were probably
waiting all week to talk to Price isn’t a good look, especially when you
make your escape in this $230,000 monstrosity.
Price isn’t the first player to leave the media hanging and
he won’t be the last. But to me, seeing Price slip out the backdoor
without talking to anyone shows me that he’s frustrated with how he
pitched, which isn’t a good sign heading into his debut on Monday. It
also shows me that Price is still adjusting to Boston after spending the
bulk of his career in small-market Tampa Bay. Maybe Price just had an
off year in 2016 but I’m sure the increased media presence and added
pressure of pitching for a household name like the Red Sox played some
role in his early struggles. The pressure-packed environment of Boston
isn’t for everyone, as evidenced by the failures of Carl Crawford and countless other big names who never panned out, which makes Chris Sale’s seamless transition this year all the more impressive.
Regardless of whether Price ever returns to the Cy Young
form he showed at previous stops in Tampa Bay, Detroit and Toronto, the
Red Sox need healthy bodies to chew up innings. That’s a low bar to
clear, especially considering Price’s prodigious track record, but
surely the Red Sox would settle for mere competence at this point. The
patchwork group of starters Boston used to replace Price (that includes Brian Johnson, Kyle Kendrick, Hector Velazquez and Steven Wright)
went a combined 2-5 with a pitiful 9.35 ERA over nine starts. So just
by showing up, Price is already giving the Red Sox a massive upgrade.
And who knows, maybe he’ll catch a second wind and return to ace status,
giving the Red Sox a formidable 1-2 punch along with Chris Sale.
Speaking of Sale, he’ll follow Price in the rotation Tuesday
in his first start against the White Sox since December’s blockbuster
trade. Sale’s final year with Chicago was anything but pleasant—he
openly criticized the team for banning Adam LaRoche’s
son from the clubhouse (which eventually led to LaRoche’s retirement)
and was later suspended for cutting up throwback jerseys he found
uncomfortable. That surely left White Sox fans with a bad taste in their
mouths, though that doesn’t erase Sale’s seven years of complete and
utter dominance including five straight All-Star appearances from
2012-16.
Despite his nearly three-month rehab, I can’t help but feel
like Price is being rushed back. Neither of his starts in Pawtucket were
very convincing and it seems like the Red Sox are just desperate to
have another arm after two months of aimless mixing and matching. Is it
too soon to take the training wheels off of Price? We’ll find out on
Monday.
AL Quick Hits: Cam Bedrosian
(groin) is expected to face live hitters over the weekend and could
begin a rehab assignment next week. Bedrosian began the year as the
Angels’ closer but with Huston Street (shoulder) on the mend and Bud Norris excelling in the ninth inning, Bedrosian may have to settle for a setup role upon his return … Edwin Diaz
picked up his ninth save Thursday against the Nationals. Diaz was
removed from the closer role last week after seeing his ERA balloon to
5.28 but it didn’t take long for him to pull himself out of manager Scott Servais’ doghouse … Led by Drew Pomeranz
and his 11 Ks, the Red Sox tied the major league record for most
strikeouts in a nine-inning game by recording 20 punch-outs in
Thursday’s win over the Rangers. Craig Kimbrel contributed to Boston’s strikeout bonanza by fanning four batters in the ninth inning … Ever wonder what David Ortiz is up to these days?
NL Quick Hits: Eduardo Nunez
was originally listed in the Giants’ lineup Thursday against the Cubs
but was scratched due to a lingering hamstring injury. Nunez received
treatment during the game and is hoping to suit up Friday night against
Atlanta … Closer has been a revolving door for the Nationals this year.
After previously experimenting with Blake Treinen, Shawn Kelley and Matt Albers, manager Dusty Baker has now assigned ninth-inning duties to Koda Glover. The 24-year-old has converted three-of-four save opportunities with a 2.57 ERA this season … Jameson Taillon
completed a 35-pitch bullpen session on Thursday. The right-hander
underwent surgery for testicular cancer earlier this month. There’s no
timetable for his return … Not a great day at the office for Phillies
outfielder Odubel Herrera. He finished 0-for-5 with five strikeouts in a victory over the Rockies on Thursday. They call that a Platinum Sombrero … Asdrubal Cabrera
was activated from the disabled list on Thursday after missing nine
games with a sprained left thumb. He appeared as a pinch-hitter in the
Mets’ loss to San Diego … Jacob deGrom
had been scheduled to pitch Thursday’s game against the Padres but
instead the Mets pushed his start back to Friday due to weather
concerns. Rafael Montero
started in his place and scattered five hits, three runs and three
walks over three lackluster innings for his fourth loss of the season …
Padres right-hander Dinelson Lamet
made his big league debut Thursday against the Mets. The 24-year-old
impressed, allowing just three hits, one run and two walks over five
stellar innings for his first career victory. He also finished with
eight strikeouts … Brad Hand pitched the ninth inning for his second save Thursday against the Mets. That came only hours after Padres manager Andy Green
wouldn’t commit to using Hand as the team’s closer. Hand is reportedly
drawing heavy interest around the league, making it likely that he’s
dealt before the July 31 trade deadline … Jeff Samardzija walked Ian Happ
in the sixth inning of Thursday’s loss to the Cubs. Prior to that, he
hadn’t issued a free pass since April 28, a span of 154 straight batters
without allowing a walk … Kenta Maeda (hamstring) was activated from the 10-day disabled list on Thursday. The Dodgers cleared a roster spot for him by placing Joc Pederson
on the 7-day concussion DL. Maeda wasn’t sharp in his return to the
mound (5 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 2 BB) Thursday night, though he did chip in with
a two-run single off Cardinals starter Michael Wacha … Yadier Molina
extended his hitting streak to 14 games by slapping a pair of singles
in Thursday’s loss to the Dodgers. That’s the longest active streak in
the major leagues … The Cubs’ themed road-trips under manager Joe Maddon have been well documented. This one might be their best yet: Anchorman (appropriate since they’ll be in San Diego next week). All of these outfits are great but John Lackey’s Champ Kind is the clear winner.
Just when Edwin Diaz
looked to be getting back on track, he collapsed on consecutive
evenings. The Mariners have already ousted him from the ninth inning
after he walked four of five batters on Monday. While his command has
never been a plus, this was the only outing in which he's looked utterly
lost. When I see something like this, I wonder if there's an injury.
His velocity is fine, but that's not always affected. Steve Cishek was probably next in line until he was hammered last night.
Diaz isn't the only shake up in Closerland. Aroldis Chapman hit the disabled list shortly after the last edition of Saves and Steals. Look for Dellin Betances to do all the same things as Chapman. He's set to return in roughly three to four weeks. Elsewhere in New York, Jeurys Familia's
season is in jeopardy after needing surgery for a blood clot. The Mets
also have a superb fall back option to their first string closer. Last
but not least, Neftali Feliz succumbed to his home run issues. Corey Knebel is the guy to own.
Greg Holland built on his saves lead by adding four more. Four others snagged three saves apiece including Matt Bush (finally) and spot-closer Derek Law. Holland's 17 saves on the season far outpaces second place Craig Kimbrel (12). Third place is a six-way tie at 10 saves.
Eduardo Nunez and Cameron Maybin shared the weekly stolen base leaderboard with four swipes each. Xander Bogaerts was next best, going 3-for-3. Billy Hamilton (19 steals) has a comfy six steal lead over A.J. Pollock, Nunez, and Dee Gordon. Unfortunately, Pollock is probably out for a month with a strained groin.
Baseball is a game of secrets and half-truths. All 30 teams employ a man whose entire job (well, most of it)
is to stand there and dance around in code to relay instructions to the
batter and runners. The pitcher and catcher have their own gestural
language. After the game, players usually speak in a strange code in
which they appear to be speaking English and answering questions, but
they somehow don’t manage to say anything coherent at all. Then there’s
the front office, where the secrets run so deep that depending on the
day of the week, you might not be able to get the people there to admit
that they are running a baseball team.
Secrets are important in the game.
Teams have all sorts of things which they know that they prefer that no
one else knows or—even moreso—that no one else even knows that they
know. If that information is truly exclusive and if it’s important, then
that secret can be worth a lot of money. If there’s a reason that the
“analytics revolution” is now simply the “we all have an analytics
department” statement of facts, it’s that an analytics department is a
way for a team to potentially find a nugget of information that they can
use to their advantage. It’s the same reason that teams have invested
in all sorts of areas of knowledge.
The thing about secrets is that eventually, they get out.
Ben Franklin famously observed that “three may keep a secret if two are
dead.” As of this writing, there are 30 major-league teams.
How long does it take for a secret to make the rounds in baseball? One recent roster fad—the good-framing catcher—was once a secret super-power that teams sorta knew about, but few really realized how valuable (and worth chasing) it was. Some teams knew about it earlier than others, although knowing about it and doing something about it are two separate things.
Even once a secret gets out—the first public article
quantifying pitch framing appeared in 2008—it took a while for the
league to adjust, so there was a definite advantage to being the first
to adopt the new technology. The now-famous example of the Rays signing Jose Molina
(with his career .233/.282/.327 batting line), largely to take
advantage of his otherworldly talents in framing the ball and provide
them value well beyond what his contract actually paid, was an exercise
in a team that hopped on the train early. They realized that a) this
talent existed, and b) Molina was a good source of it, and no one else
was paying attention to those facts.
Now, we hear about teams pricing that framing skill into
their contract offers. Teams have begun training their catchers in the
fine art of the frame and even moving players behind the plate if they
feel they might have a good framing candidate. Now, framing is so passe
that few bother to write about it. When Jason Castro
got a three-year, $24.5 million deal from the Twins in the offseason,
everyone nodded that while his batting line hasn’t been so great in
recent years, he can still steal a few strikes. All the work that went
into finding, then quantifying, then acting on that framing effect is
now for naught. Everyone has it now.
But, let’s say that tomorrow, someone finds something
interesting in one of the 30 MLB StatCaves out there. How long can they
expect that advantage to last?
Let’s start with a strategic innovation that we know has
completely saturated the league: the one-inning closer. The generally
accepted theory is that the idea was “invented” in the late 1980s by A's
manager Tony La Russa and his use of Dennis Eckersley (although as Rob Mains has pointed out, Pete Rose used John Franco in much the same way in 1987, before Eckersley really solidified his role in 1988).
How long did it take for the idea of having a pitcher pitch
the ninth inning (and the ninth inning only) to record saves to overrun
the league? First, here’s a graph of the percentage of saves from
1950-2016 that involved the pitcher getting three outs or fewer.
Saves were “invented” in the early 1960s and not formally adopted by MLB
as a statistic until 1969, but any game that has an extant box score
can be retroactively awarded a save. We can see that up until about the
late 1980s, the majority of saves required more than three outs. In
1987, the number was 40.0 percent. Fourteen years later, in 2001, the
number had more than doubled to 83.4 percent.
From the time of Franco and Eck, it actually took more than a
decade to get to near-universal use of the strategy, although within
the first seven years or so, more than half the teams in MLB were using
it. It is debatable whether the advent of the one-inning closer is a net positive or a net negative for teams, but clearly teams have voted on which side they prefer.
Let’s pull a number completely out of the air and
say that using the strategy was worth 1.0 win above replacement in an
environment where no one else was doing it. Once everyone was doing it,
there was no more advantage to be gained. If it took roughly 10 years
for the strategy to be fully adapted and implemented league wide, and
the rate of implementation was mostly consistent (a few teams picked it
up each year, and it was roughly the same number in each of the years),
that insight would be worth about 5.5 wins over the course of those 10
years (1.0 WAR + 0.9 WARP + 0.8 WARP + ...). Those might not be pitch-perfect assumptions, but they give us the correct order of magnitude.
Now let’s look at a couple of other strategic trends in
baseball that have appeared and that we can easily observe in the data.
One is the aforementioned catcher framing, which helpfully, BP has
statistics on back to 1988 (though the numbers from 1988 to 2007 are
calculated in a different way—using play-by-play data—than those from
2008 to 2016.) I took data at the team level on how many
framing runs each team had gotten from its catchers and then took the
standard deviation of that number. Here’s the graph from 1988 to 2016.
If teams were all getting roughly the same performance from their
catchers in terms of framing, the standard deviation would be low. It
seems that from the late 1980s onward, the standard deviation actually
drifted ever higher, suggesting that teams were getting wildly
different amounts of value from their catchers (and apparently, no one
really noticed how much).
It’s not entirely clear when the “framing revolution” began
to be implemented, and when teams went from just trying to grab the
catchers who were good at framing to actively trying to increase the
supply of good framers in the league (and kicking out the Ryan Doumit
types). The numbers show that the common wisdom that the catcher market
is now being flooded with good framers, decreasing the relative
advantage of having a good one, is correct.
We see that in 2011, the standard deviation between teams
was over 20 runs, but in 2016, it had fallen to 14 runs. There’s still a
lot to be gained from having a good framer, although at this point, not
as much as there once was. We don’t know what the natural low for the
standard deviation is. Even if we assumed that the only thing that teams
cared about in their catchers was the ability to frame (not true), and
that they were out to find the 60 best practitioners of that craft, one
of them would still be better than the rest, and there would be some variance.
But we can see that certainly there’s been a move toward
teams striving to find (or make) their own good-framing catcher. More
importantly, the key nugget of wisdom is that teams should factor this
skill into their evaluations of catchers. If we mark the time from the
original Dan Turkenkopf catcher-framing article to the end of the 2016
season, we get a roughly nine-year period.
Now, let’s look at shifts. Again, it’s not entirely clear
that The Shift is actually a net positive for the defense, but the
league keeps shifting more and more. The fact that the shifting rate for
the league overall has gone up by an order of magnitude over the past
few years makes this analysis a little tougher, but we can still make a
graph. This time, I’m using the coefficient of variation, which is just
the ratio of the standard deviation of a distribution to its mean.
I pulled the number of batters that each team shifted on,
from 2010 to 2016 (the only years for which we have public data). The
publicly available data is only plate appearances that ended up with a
ball in play, so strikeouts, walks, hit by pitch, and home runs are not
included.
Teams are getting more similar, and that coefficient of
variance has been halved over the course of a mere five seasons, but
teams are not completely in line with each other at this point. Maybe
this year, we will see a further tightening. If The Shift truly is
spreading across the league, we will. Teams all face the same (basic)
set of hitters and if it makes sense for one team to shift against a
hitter, it probably makes sense for the other 29 to do so as well.
Unlike catcher framing, where to increase the supply of good
framers in the ecosystem a team has to locate and groom a good framer,
increasing the number of shifts is (in theory) as simple as pointing the
third baseman to a new spot on the diamond. Once the strategy reaches
full saturation, the variation will probably reach down near zero.
Again, if we’ve deleted half of the variation within five years and the
trend line holds, then we are looking at a situation where everyone
shifts as much as everyone else (roughly) in about 10 years.
I’ll gladly admit that some of this is slap-dash math, but
I’d argue that we have a decent case that it takes about a decade for an
idea to fully engulf Major League Baseball and become the new normal. What’s a New Idea Worth?
I’ve previously lamented
the problem of the “second-move advantage” in baseball research. It’s
easy to start a sentence with “if a win is worth $9 million dollars ...”
and end it with “then the brilliant idea I have is worth a cool million
at least!” The problem is that eventually your idea gets out into the
baseball ecosystem and eventually every other team can copy it without
paying for the R&D costs that it took to come up with it.
That line of thought might be a little too pessimistic. Yes,
a brilliant idea can be copied after a while, and eventually everyone
will adopt it, but there’s an intermezzo in there that lasts a
few years where even if a team doesn’t have a monopoly on the idea, they
still have a relative advantage over some of the other teams in the game. And that’s still worth something.
If it takes a decade (or so, and yes there are error bars
and I’m fine with that) for the full depreciation to happen, then a new
idea is going to produce value, even if it’s diminishing value, for a
while. It’s possible that I’m over-estimating that time, and that these
sorts of big-ticket items take longer to fully make their way into the
fabric of the game, but the point is that the process is not instant.
It’s gradual and incremental, and the spaces in between are where the
money is made.
Earlier in this article, I completely pulled a number out of
the air and suggested that for an idea that produced a strategic
advantage worth one win in the very short term for the team that had
initially adopted it, we could expect that idea to produce 5.5 wins (or
so, and yes there are error bars and I’m fine with that) of value over
10 years. Maybe it’s a little less. Maybe it varies by the type of idea.
But in that delay is value.
It’s hard to come up with an idea that’s worth one win, but
we can start to mold a math equation around how much value an idea worth
X short-term wins would produce, accounting for the depreciation that
comes from the fact that in a few years, everyone will copy it. This
also begins to show the value of competitive intelligence. Maybe a team
isn’t the first to think of a new idea, but if they can identify what
another team is doing and see the value in it, then they could be the second to jump on the bandwagon, and could gain value that way while everyone else catches up.
It probably also explains why general managers say so little
about the fun things that are going on behind those office walls. After
all, the longer they can hold their brilliant idea out from the light,
the longer it will take until that “discover and adapt” process begins
in the other 29 front offices. Silence is worth money. We need to accept
a depressing conclusion that comes with this train of thought, too. In
any business, sports included, you’re only as good as your last idea and
your idea comes pre-installed with an expiration date on how useful it
is.
But before we depart for the day, let’s look at this from one other angle. One baffling question that has never been quite fully answered
is what a general manager (or more broadly, a front office) is worth.
If we assume that a general manager’s job is to come up and implement
strategies that make a team better, including coming up with cool ideas
and not being the last one to take up other people’s good ideas
once they inevitably leak out, we are now a little closer to a
framework for figuring out the sum total of those contributions.
I guess we’ve officially entered prospect season. Cody Bellinger has been making fantasy owners very happy since his debut, but we saw the return of Jose Berrios and surprising call-up of Ian Happ last weekend before injuries in the Indians’ outfield brought Bradley Zimmer to the majors this week. Most fantasy owners have been waiting on Yoan Moncada,
but he’s expected to be placed on the 7-day disabled list with Triple-A
Charlotte due to a sore left thumb. Don’t worry, his time should still
come soon enough. Hopefully we can say the same for Mets prospect Amed Rosario, who owns a ridiculous .365/.407/.519 batting line through 39 games with Triple-A Las Vegas and appears to have little else to prove down there. Come on, Mets.
Berrios
struggled with his control while posting an ugly 8.02 ERA through 14
starts with the Twins last season, but he allowed just one run on two
hits and one walk over 7 2/3 innings against the Indians last Saturday.
It was obviously a very encouraging outing, though four strikeouts and
nine swinging strikes (including none on his curveball) left me wanting
more. Berrios is already owned in 50 percent of Yahoo leagues, so he’s
not in this week’s recommendations and he might not have been even if he
was below that number. I wouldn’t go out of my way to pick him up just
yet in standard formats.
Tommy Joseph 1B, Phillies (Yahoo: 20 percent owned)
I
mentioned Joseph in the first Waiver Wired of the season, as I was
excited to see what was in store for a follow-up after he hit 21 homers
with an .813 OPS in just 107 games last season, but he really scuffled
out of the gate in April and soon appeared at risk of losing playing
time. However, he has solidified his place in the Phillies’ lineup this
month by batting .395 (17-for-43) with four home runs and six doubles
through 14 games. He has improved his season OPS from .476 to .806 along
the way. With the recent hot streak, Joseph has found himself in the
cleanup spot in each of his last four starts. It took a little while
longer than I expected, but he’s a viable corner infielder option.
You can see some of my extended thoughts on Zimmer in this week’s Rotoworld Roundtable.
I generally see him as someone worth picking up outside of shallow
formats. The strikeouts are a concern, but there’s opportunity in
Cleveland’s outfield with Abraham Almonte and Brandon Guyer facing extended absences. Zimmer should have some leash to start
out with here. The 24-year-old had a rough first stint in Triple-A last
year, but he was batting .294/.371/.532 with five home runs and nine
steals over through his first 33 games at the level this season. I like
the potential for pop and speed, even if he’s hitting in the
bottom-third of the order.
While
the overall numbers are underwhelming on the surface, I can’t ignore a
pitcher with back-to-back double-digit strikeout games. Karns actually
has a 2.08 ERA and 29/4 K/BB ratio in 17 1/3 innings across three starts
this month. Perhaps this is just a blip, but something has changed
here, as Karns is relying more heavily on his curveball in his most
recent starts and getting more swings and misses in the process. It’s
fair to wonder how viable this approach will be for the long-term, but
I’ll happily chase the strikeouts here. Karns has quietly struck out 318
batters in 305 2/3 innings in the majors.
It was looking like the Diamondbacks would be forced to turn to Archie Bradley to fill a rotation spot after Shelby Miller
required Tommy John surgery, but Godley is staking his claim on that
gig. After coming into the year with a 5.34 ERA over 36 appearances
(including 15 starts) in the majors, the 27-year-old has a 1.93 ERA with
19 strikeouts in 18 2/3 innings in three starts this season. He held
the scuffling Mets to just one hit on Monday. I wouldn’t mention Godley
in this space unless I saw something interesting behind his performance.
He has ramped up the use of his curveball so far while missing a ton of
bats in the process. He’s also inducing ground balls at an insane (73.2
percent) clip. Yes, it’s a small sample and yes, walks have been a
trouble spot for him, but he’s suddenly very interesting. Give him a try
against the Padres this weekend.
This
was perhaps the toughest call of the week for me. Happ’s call-up was a
surprise and I’m not sure what his role will be after Jason Heyward
returns from the disabled list, but he has at least forced the
possibility of sticking around by going 4-for-13 with two homers, one
double, and four walks through his first four games in the majors.
Selected ninth overall back in 2015, the 22-year-old enjoyed a monster
spring and was batting .298/.362/.615 with nine homers and 25 RBI
through his first 26 games in Triple-A this year. I’m not sure about the
batting average, but he looks like he belongs. It’s just a matter of
opportunity, which is a tricky call with Joe Maddon’s
moving parts. I wouldn’t go dropping someone really important for him,
but if you have the proper roster flexibility, I could see being
aggressive here while we wait to see how things are going to play out.
Devon Travis 2B, Blue Jays (Yahoo: 29 percent owned)
Travis
was a target of mine this spring, but he was flat-out awful in April
and lost his leadoff hitter job in the process. Fortunately, he has
gotten back into the game this month, batting .327 with six RBI, two
stolen bases, and nine runs scored over 15 games. Amazingly, 12 of his
17 hits this month have been doubles. This is a guy who hit .303 with 19
homers and 85 RBI in 163 games between 2015-2016, so I think we’ll see
more power soon. The Blue Jays are obviously encouraged with what they
are seeing, as Travis has moved into the fifth spot in each of his last
two starts. He’s a fine play in most formats, ideally as a middle
infielder option.
There
aren’t many positives with the reeling Mets right now, but Walker has
at least awoken from his early-season slumber. After putting up two
homers with a .583 OPS in April, the 31-year-old is batting .351 with
nine extra-base hits (including two homers) and 12 RBI through 15 games
this month while settling into the cleanup spot. If anything, he’s
answering concerns about his back following season-ending surgery last
year. Given his past production, it’s not a stretch to think that he
could hit 15-plus homers the rest of the way. I just wonder if he’ll
actually finish the year with the Mets or end up being trade bait by
July.
Justin Smoak 1B, Blue Jays (Yahoo: 22 percent owned)
Smoak
has been featured in Waiver Wired a couple of times over the years, but
his career hasn’t exactly worked out as originally hoped. But maybe,
just maybe we’re seeing him turn a new leaf. Now 30 years old, Smoak is
already up to nine homers and 27 RBI to go along with a strong
.280/.342/.545 batting line. It’s easy to dismiss this as a possible
fluke, but he’s currently sporting the highest contact rate of his
career. The switch-hitter has struck out just once in 36 plate
appearances against lefties all season while putting up four homers and
10 RBI. I’m not saying to drop Edwin Encarnacion for him or something, but why not take a chance on him as a corner infielder or bench option?
Tony Zych RP, Mariners (Yahoo: 13 percent owned) Steve Cishek RP, Mariners (Yahoo: 7 percent owned) James Pazos RP, Mariners (Yahoo: 0 percent owned)
I’ve had about enough with the closer changes, thank you very much. Edwin Diaz
was a top-five closer for me after his dominant rookie season and
appeared to be righting the ship after getting off to a shaky start this
year, but four walks on Monday was enough for the Mariners to give him a
break from the role. Diaz is still missing plenty of bats, but he’s
already allowed more walks and home runs than he did for all of last
season. The Mariners want him to work on his mechanics before putting
him back in save situations. I don’t think it will be long before Diaz
figures it out, so definitely don’t drop him, but feel free to grab the
alternatives while we wait. Cishek has the most experience of this
group, but he just made his return from hip surgery and he blew his
first save chance on Tuesday. This opens the door for Zych and Pazos (3
percent owned), among others. Go crazy, you save-hungry monsters.
Carter Capps
appeared to be the most logical stash in the Padres’ bullpen coming
into the spring, but his return from Tommy John surgery hasn’t gone as
smoothly as originally hoped. The hard-throwing right-hander pitched in
some minor league rehab games last month, but the Padres recently sent
him back to Arizona to work on his mechanics. There’s no clear timetable
for him to join the major league bullpen, so Hand should be stashed
away in case the Padres decide to make a change with closer Brandon Maurer.
Maurer deserved better luck on Wednesday, but he’s now allowed nine
runs over his last four appearances. Meanwhile, Hand owns a 1.88 ERA and
31/9 K/BB ratio over 24 innings this season. This isn’t complicated.
Stash and see how it goes.
After
falling into a brutal slump at the plate, Maybin has picked up eight
hits in 10 at-bats over the last two games to pull his batting average
up from .180 to .231 on the year. Perhaps most importantly, he’s hitting
leadoff for the Angels these days with third baseman Yunel Escobar
expected to miss 2-4 weeks due to a strained left hamstring. Maybin
carries his own injury concerns, but he’s 9-for-9 in stolen base
attempts this season, so he’s one of the better widely-available speed
options out there right now.
Luis Perdomo SP/RP, Padres (Yahoo: 4 percent owned)
Prior to his trip to the disabled list on Wednesday, Trevor Cahill
was the most interesting pitcher in the Padres’ rotation, but don’t
overlook what Perdomo is doing. After a couple of subpar outings to
begin the year, the 24-year-old has reeled off four straight quality
starts while posting a 3.00 ERA and 26/6 K/BB ratio in 24 innings. He
fanned a career-high nine batters in his most recent start Monday
against the Brewers. Perdomo is getting a ton of whiffs on his curveball
and owns the highest ground ball rate (70.5 percent) among pitchers
with at least 30 innings pitched. We can’t ignore that the Padres aren’t
helping when it comes to offense or defense, but Perdomo should
certainly be owned in more leagues at this point.
I
don’t have high expectations here, but Hoying should see plenty of
playing time in center field against right-handed starters with Carlos Gomez on the shelf with a right hamstring strain. Ryan Rua
should see at-bats against lefties, although in left field. The
28-year-old (Happy Birthday!) Hoying didn’t do much in his sporadic
opportunities in the majors last season, but he has shown some pop and
speed in the minors. The opportunity is there for value, so that’s
something.
I mentioned Chase Whitley in this space last week, but it turns out that Erasmo Ramirez (Yahoo: 3 percent owned) will fill a spot in the rotation with Blake Snell
back in Triple-A. This might only be a short-term situation, as Faria
is making a strong case for a call-up. Selected in the 10th round back
in 2011, the 23-year-old has piled up 62 strikeouts in 41 1/3 innings in
Triple-A this season while posting a 3.92 ERA over eight starts. He
walks more batters than you’d like to see and home runs have been an
issue for him this year, but it’s probably time to stash him if you
haven’t already.
The Diamondbacks have been a nice surprise this season under new manager Torey Lovullo, but they’ll have to get by without A.J. Pollock for a while after he went down with a Grade 1 strain of his right groin on Sunday. Fuentes and Gregor Blanco
(Yahoo: 0 percent) figure to share playing time in center field during
his absence. Blanco is obviously the more established player, but both
bring some interesting speed to the table. Fuentes had nine steals in 34
games
in Triple-A this season prior to his call-up. He has hit leadoff in
both of his starts so far. Given the injury situation with the Braves
right now, Jace Peterson (Yahoo: 0 percent owned) and Danny Santana (Yahoo: 0 percent owned) should also get some consideration. The Braves might look outside the organization (James Loney, perhaps) if the reports are true and Freddie Freeman requires a lengthy absence.
I’m
not counting on anything from Lugo as he attempts to rehab from a
partial tear of the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, but
he’s scheduled to begin a minor league rehab assignment on Thursday and
could be an option for the Mets’ rotation within the next couple of
weeks. With Robert Gsellman struggling and recent waiver claim Tommy Milone
holding down another spot, the club has a clear need. Lugo posted a
2.67 ERA in eight starts and nine relief appearances as a rookie last
year and is at least worth stashing as he begins his rehab assignment.