April, 1974.
"He's sitting on 714"
I can remember the moment on Monday Night Night Baseball, an anticipation of history. LA Dodgers pitcher, left hander Al Downing tossed another hard inside pitch to Henry Aaron.
This pitch would not get tossed back by Joe Ferguson.
This pitch would leave the field and be a record.
Lest we forget Babe Ruth, but 715 had been reached, a home run milestone. He finished his career off with his 755th home run. No drugs, no scandals, no issues.
This week we celebrate a 40 year reminder that a black baseball player passed the legendary Babe Ruth. Somehow, I never felt Aaron got his due, there was always something missing.
The reason was easy, Aaron was black, and the USA was not quite as race tolerant as they feel they have become. Ruth, still a hero of many generations was white and a cultural icon. Forget the fact he drank heavily, cheated on his fight, and had an ego the size of his gut, he is remembered fondly for changing the game.
Aaron was the victim of horrible racism, hate letters and death threats. White racism was very prevalent in 1974.
Aaron soldiered on, we all thought that before the end of the 1973 season, Aaron would have caught and passed Ruth, but pitchers seemed to be pitching very carefully. Some reporters stated openly that white pitchers were avoiding being the one to give up a home run to Henry.
Al Downing of the LA Dodgers, a black pitcher, never worried about that. The LA Dodgers were very good team in 74, and would challenge for the World Series against the Oakland A's. Al did not care what record was at stake, he just wanted the out.
I watched that game, anticipating an event, and was not disappointed. It went high, deep and long and not come back.
40 years from now, there might another record set, and I hope my son will see it. By then, I hope society has dropped all feelings of racism, or at least most criticism of others. Celebrate the event !
Sunday, April 13, 2014
Saturday, March 22, 2014
$pring Training
I think if you ask any players today after 3 weeks of games, on March 22, they would say we're ready to play, and managers would love to avoid playing vets in meaningless games.
When or if will they reduce the amount of games in Spring Training.
Not any time soon. The amount of money made in running games in Florida and Arizona. Unfortunately, many smaller communities depend on 30 games and 30 dates selling 8 to 10,000 seats, parking revenue, plus all the souvenirs.
40 years ago these games were needed because many players needed 4-5 weeks time to reduce winter fat, but players show up in shape as they train year round.
$pring Training is a combo of getting pitchers ready, and a pure money grab. As I say, 30 chances to re coup dollars, plus the chance in January to get the cash from fantasy camps.
Now this year, is anyone ready for baseball to return to the north ?
I just hope someone reminded the weather man that March 31 st is Game 1, and that is just 9 days from today.
Saturday, February 15, 2014
When will Oakland find the right mixture
When the Athletics finally reach the World Series the fans in California will breathe a sigh of relief, as the A's are often bridesmaids, and never brides.
Batters
What the depth-chart graphic below doesn’t represent very well, but what is still true of the Oakland A’s, is that they’ll probably be getting value from players who aren’t proper starters. Of particular note in this regard is outfielder Craig Gentry for whom Oakland traded Micheal Choice and a friend to Texas this offseason. Gentry’s defensive figures over the last three season have been, speaking in very technical sabermetric terms, entirely bananas. Accordingly, it’s not so unexpected to see him receive a very optimistic projection here in just 300 or so plate appearances.
Also of note: John Jaso is projected as a catcher here, but is likely to get a significant numbers of plate appearances — perhaps the bulk of them — at DH. Even a poor defensive catcher still receives a pretty substantial increase in value by way of positional adjustment — relative to a designated hitter, certainly. Expecting him to produce two wins in a DH capacity might be unrealistic
Pitchers
The starting pitchers in the depth-chart graphic below are arranged not in order of expected rotation slot.What doing that reveals is how Sonny Gray , and probably not Jarrod Parker, is maybe the staff ace. What it also reveals is that Tommy Milone, currently not expected to be included in the opening-day rotation, is projected like a pitcher who probably should be.
Elsewhere, one finds that Scott Kazmir‘s projection isn’t a particularly favorable one. The reason for that, though, appears due less to mediocrity on a rate basis and more to a pretty conservative innings projections (91.1). This isn’t particularly strange for a pitcher who returned in 2013 following nearly a full two-year layoff.
Bench/Prospects
Given both his (a) skills and (b) performances relative to age/level, it’s not surprising to learn that shortstop Addison Russell is one of the top prospects in baseball. What’s perhaps more surprising is that Russell, who’s recorded just 13 cursory plate appearances above High-A ball, is projected already to produce wins at a league-average rate in the majors. He would appear, at this juncture, to be considerably more advanced than most of the other rookie-eligible players in the Oakland system.
Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the A’s, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post.
Baseball in the streets
You can play the game anywhere and I have.
The game was initially supposed to be a pastoral set outdoors to allow young people to fill their lungs with clean air and benefit their health. Poppycock ! The games most ardent roots come from playing in downtown Brooklyn, or San Juan, or east LA or downtown Detroit or across from the drug store in Boston. Side of a hill or in a deserted schoolyard.
In Latin America, the difficulties stem from what equipment is available. No gloves, or tattered ones, fields are make shift, no grass, mostly rocks, hard scrabble grey and bumpy.
The highest baseball tournament in Latin America is the Caribbean Series (Serie del Caribe), with participants including the winners of the Winter Leagues in Mexico, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic and Venezuela.
According to some, baseball is today more popular in Latin America than in the United States. It is no secret that USA, Japan and Latin America are top baseball countries but it seems that recently the game has lost some of its popularity in the United States.
This never happened in Latin America, where people are still very passionate about the game.
There is absolutely no doubt that baseball is one of the most popular sports in Latin America, especially in the Caribbean region. There are many possible reasons for this. First of all, sporting competition has always been a big thing in Latin America. Just think about the popularity of soccer, among other sports. When it comes to baseball, it seems that this game is perceived as a perfect way for a poor buy from a humble environment to rise above his status and become a star.
Baseball players in Latin America are highly regarded and often idolized by the fans, maybe even more than their colleagues in the USA. Winter League stars are regarded as national heroes and if they are lucky enough to reach the American major league (which many of them actually do), they are in for something of a cult status. This probably has much to do with the fact that so many people in Latin America struggle with poverty and they find much consolation in the fact that some of them can actually reach success and a better life.
In addition to that, baseball is more suitable for kids in dense urban areas to play. It does not require vast fields and can be played in the street. If you are poor, you only need a small field and some rocks to mark the bases. If you don’t have a proper baseball, you can use a tennis ball or some other sort of ball. Not having proper equipment never seems to stop kids in Latin America from playing.
Also, baseball does not require perfect or at least specific physical shape and condition, like football and basketball, which is one of the possible reasons for the popularity of baseball in Latin America.
Compared to Americans, the Latinos seem to care more about baseball, its rules, seasons and players. Baseball is not a sport with simple rules and enjoying it to the fullest often requires a great deal of knowledge and focus. Latin American fans are believed by many to be the most dedicated and knowledgeable when it comes to baseball. They also expect a lot from their players, who need to go all in in each and every game, or else the fans may actually turn their backs on them. This, of course, increases the quality of the players and of the game.
American kids would sneak out of the orphanages into empty parks. Here the kids begin the ritual of deciding who has first ups.
Central America and the winter leagues
Major league players will be allowed to compete in winter leagues this season after Major League Baseball and the players' association reached an agreement on restrictions that will limit pitchers' participation but loosen limitations on position players, sources with knowledge of the deal told Yahoo Sports.
Terse negotiations between the parties in recent months stoked fears that players on teams' 40-man rosters – the stars and staples of leagues in the Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Puerto Rico and Mexico – would be barred from playing this year. The five-year agreement, reached Friday and ratified by the Caribbean Confederation on Saturday, will allow players to report within a week.
MLB aimed to keep pitchers –
particularly young ones – from taxing their arms after significant
workloads, while the union wanted to allow players as much leeway as
possible to play if they desire. In the past, teams have been allowed to
restrict players based on "extreme fatigue" and "physical incapacity"
rules that related to player usage and injuries the previous season.
Starting
this year, Double-A starting pitchers – those on the 40-man roster with
a majority of their time spent at Double-A – cannot participate in
winter ball if they threw 140 or more innings. The previous threshold
was 155. Similarly, Double-A relievers cannot have appeared in more than
45 games, while in years past it was 55.
Pitchers
also are ineligible if their workload in games or innings grew 25
percent over the prior season. The caveats: They must've reached 60
percent of the games-or-innings threshold the previous season, and
players switching from the rotation to the bullpen or vice versa don't
count.
Instead of a 502-plate
appearance threshold for major league position players, those with up to
552 now can play winter ball. Moreover, the past procedure of declaring
a "physical incapacity" – teams simply had to provide documentation –
now has strict rules. Unless a player finishes the season on the
disabled list or spent 60 days on the DL (including 15 over the final 60
days of the season), a team cannot declare him physically incapable.
The exception is pitchers who have undergone major surgery in the
previous 18 months.
Off-field
improvements for players include the requirement of MLB-certified
trainers, higher-quality equipment and increased standards for fields,
clubhouses and bathrooms, with a compliance program to address issues.
The
Venezuelan Winter League and Mexican Pacific League began play this
week. The biggest and best league, the Dominican Winter League, starts
Friday, and opening day for the Puerto Rican League is Nov. 1. The
league's winners will meet in the Caribbean Series, scheduled to be held
on Margarita Island, Venezuela, in February 2014.
Jeter
Run a Google search for :Derek Jeter" and “defense” and you get almost 700,000 results. Run a Google search for "Chipper Jones" and you get fewer than 450,000 results. I suppose now you can bump each of those up by one. The matter of Jeter’s defense is a tired, tired topic, and it was a tired, tired topic years ago. Personally, I try to avoid tired topics. But in this instance, I think there’s something; something not enough attention has been paid to on account of the raging argument elsewhere.
People have argued about only part of the story.
You all should be familiar with the position of the advanced defensive metrics like DRS and UZR. It’s because of those metrics that an argument exists in the first place. Jeter loyalists have continued to insist he was at least a solid defensive shortstop in the past. UZR has disagreed, and DRS has more extremely disagreed, as they’ve both evaluated Jeter as subpar for the position. On the occasion of Jeter’s retirement announcement, there were people who couldn’t help but make fun of his defensive ability, and he’s been the butt of such jokes for much of his career. Jeter’s often been described as an awful defensive shortstop, or as something along those lines. While there’s been some basis for this, though, one of the key words in that description is “shortstop.”
Let’s say you’re a professional pie-eater. Congratulations! You’re one of the lucky ones! You’re able to reliably consume three pies in a timed sitting. Among the pie-eating circuit, this makes you more or less average. In one competition, against weaker foes, you eat your three pies, and no one else eats more than two. You’ve won! Then you move on to another, more challenging competition. Against stronger foes, you eat your three pies, but most everyone else eats four. You’ve lost. Your ability level was exactly the same, but the peers you were matched up against were better than the peers before, so relatively speaking, you looked worse.
This has, in essence, been Jeter’s dilemma. Statistically, he’s been a below-average defensive shortstop, and everybody knows that. He’s also been a shortstop for his entire career, and shortstops are above-average defenders, relative to the Major League Baseball player pool. So on the one hand, Jeter’s been one of the worst. But on the other, he’s been one of the worst out of the best, so it’s important remember defensive numbers come within a certain positional context. Maybe Jeter’s like the worst beer from an excellent brewery.
In case you haven’t been able to look ahead, this whole post is basically just going to call attention to Jeter’s Defense rating. Every player on FanGraphs gets a Fielding rating, and a Positional rating. Combine them and you get the Defense rating, which allows for a direct comparison of players across different positions. Most of the talk about Jeter has had to do with the Fielding rating. That paints an incomplete picture.
In the past 50 years, 507 different players have batted at least 5,000 times. Sort by Fielding-per-150-games, and you find Jeter in 487th place, around names like Jay Buhner,Micheal Young and Bobby Bonilla. However, sort by Positional-per-150-games, and you find Jeter in 57th place, around names like Cal Ripken, Rafael Furcal and Omar Vizquel. This is the positional adjustment, and Jeter gets major points for being a shortstop — a position of considerable difficulty.
Sort by Defense-per-150-games, and you find Jeter in 252nd place. In other words, he’s right in the middle of the pack, near guys like Jeff Blauser, Andre Dawson, and Willie McGee. He comes out at -1.5 runs on that scale. He’s ahead of John Olerud. He’s ahead of Mark Grace and Rickey Henderson and Moises Alou. Jeter has drawn the criticism that he’s cost his team runs by playing a lousy shortstop, but overall he’s still been a reasonably valuable defensive player. That’s just because of his reliability at a difficult position.
The numbers they have at Baseball-Reference like Jeter less, and if you use their numbers for those same 507 guys in the past 50 years, you find Jeter in 341st place. It’s a worse place, to be sure, but it’s certainly not a dreadful place. And Jeter’s right by names like Nick Markakis and Shannon Stewart . He’s ahead of Jeff Bagwell. . And of course, we’re loyal to the numbers we have right here, so I look at these as a backup.
Let’s say you only want to know about the era during which we’ve had UZR. This stretches from 2002 to 2013, and during that span, 322 players have batted at least 2,500 times. Keep in mind this window ignores Jeter’s youngest years. Sort by Fielding-per-150-games, and you find Jeter in 280th place. Sort by Positional-per-150-games, and you find Jeter in 50th place. Sort by Defense-per-150-games, and you find Jeter in 161st place. Again, right in the middle. His spreadsheet neighbors include Andrew McCutcheon, Eric Byrnes and Ronnie Belliard and I feel like I’d just be repeating myself if I noted the significance of this. There’s a difference between criticizing Jeter as a defensive shortstop, and criticizing Jeter as a defensive player.
To the eyes, Jeter can be pretty convincingly OK. At least, that has to be the takeaway from so many Yankees fans insisting he’s been fine. Part of that is because Yankees fans haven’t been able to watch any other Yankees shortstops. Part of it is because his missed plays aren’t egregious. Part of it is because the bar for defensive shortstops is really high, and so even a weaker shortstop can look playable. And part of it is because Jeter has long been so athletic, because his position has demanded it, because his position has been among the most demanding. He’s looked like he belongs on the field. That’s mostly because he has.
I get that Derek Jeter is polarizing, and I get that it’s fun to criticize a player the media’s never stopped putting on a pedestal. It’s certainly worthwhile to note Jeter hasn’t been a great defensive shortstop. While he’ll have absolutely zero trouble getting into the Hall of Fame, defense still is important when it comes to our understanding of what he’s been as a player. Jeter has had his on-field shortcomings. But it’s also important to not get carried away.
For his position, Jeter’s been one of the game’s worse defensive players. His position has included some of the very best defensive players in baseball. In terms of overall value, those about negate one another. In the end, the most correct opinion of Jeter’s defensive ability is, `Hey, he’s been all right.’
Sunday, February 9, 2014
Angels have high hopes
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The reader likely already knows, but the author will state for the benefit of anyone who might not, that it is generally the case with these projections that they’re more conservative than one’s own intuition might otherwise suggest.
Not infrequently, partisan commenters will respond to these posts with regard to this or that player, saying “I’ll take the over on that projection.” Perhaps, in some cases, that’s a fair statement to make: the relative success of the FAN projections also hosted at this site suggests that the crowd might have some insight into these matters. Still,my forecasts are derived empirically — and, to that end, can’t be merely ignored.
As has been the case in other editions of these posts, the starting pitchers included on the depth-chart graphic below are not listed in order of probable rotation slot. Rather what the author has done is to arrange the five pitchers most likely to make the opening-day rotation in order of projected WAR, according to experts.
While not a prospect proper, right fielder KoleCalhoun is a young player who enters the season with fewer than 250 career plate appearances and yet a decidedly encouraging projection — one basically on par with left fielder Josh Hamilton‘s, for example, at considerably fewer dollars per win. Perhaps somewhat surprisingly — even to Eric Stamets himself — shortstop Eric Stamets is projected to approach major-league average (or its equivalent in the minors), despite having recorded zero plate appearances above High-A. Much of that is due to his defensive projection, which benefits from +7 defensive runs beyond the already lofty positional adjustment for shortstops.
Watch for Garrett Richards early struggles, it may provide an opening for Skaggs to fit nicely. Also Freese is a nice addition, his steady defense and reliable RBI bat in the middle of the line up will reduce pressures on Pujols and Hamilton.
Here are composites of 2013 batting results,
| Player | B | Age | PO | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Trout | R | 22 | CF | 714 | 119 | 179 | 35 | 9 | 29 | 95 | 43 | 7 |
| Albert Pujols | R | 34 | 1B | 538 | 68 | 133 | 28 | 0 | 24 | 81 | 5 | 1 |
| Howie Kendrick | R | 30 | 2B | 579 | 65 | 150 | 27 | 4 | 13 | 65 | 11 | 5 |
| Erick Aybar | B | 30 | SS | 607 | 74 | 155 | 32 | 6 | 8 | 55 | 19 | 6 |
| Josh Hamilton | L | 33 | RF | 591 | 70 | 138 | 27 | 4 | 22 | 79 | 5 | 1 |
| Kole Calhoun | L | 26 | CF | 542 | 64 | 124 | 23 | 5 | 15 | 66 | 10 | 4 |
| Chris Iannetta | R | 31 | C | 352 | 34 | 64 | 12 | 0 | 10 | 36 | 2 | 2 |
| David Freese | R | 31 | 3B | 484 | 46 | 107 | 20 | 1 | 11 | 55 | 2 | 2 |
| Hank Conger | B | 26 | C | 329 | 31 | 73 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 32 | 0 | 1 |
| Jett Bandy | R | 24 | C | 400 | 37 | 83 | 22 | 1 | 6 | 37 | 1 | 1 |
| Eric Stamets | R | 22 | SS | 498 | 49 | 112 | 19 | 1 | 3 | 35 | 10 | 4 |
| Raul Ibanez | L | 42 | DH | 424 | 47 | 94 | 18 | 2 | 20 | 59 | 1 | 0 |
| Tommy Field | R | 27 | SS | 498 | 48 | 97 | 19 | 3 | 9 | 41 | 6 | 2 |
| Taylor Lindsey | L | 22 | 2B | 598 | 62 | 138 | 23 | 4 | 12 | 52 | 4 | 5 |
| Shawn O’Malley | B | 26 | SS | 383 | 41 | 78 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 23 | 15 | 5 |
| Grant Green | R | 26 | 2B | 631 | 67 | 148 | 30 | 3 | 11 | 61 | 6 | 5 |
| Luis Jimenez | R | 26 | 3B | 496 | 53 | 116 | 26 | 2 | 9 | 53 | 11 | 5 |
| Collin Cowgill | R | 28 | LF | 448 | 47 | 96 | 18 | 3 | 8 | 42 | 11 | 3 |
| Alex Yarbrough | B | 22 | 2B | 523 | 51 | 126 | 21 | 4 | 6 | 47 | 9 | 3 |
| Andrew Romine | B | 28 | SS | 501 | 49 | 105 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 35 | 14 | 6 |
| Luis Rodriguez | B | 34 | 2B | 386 | 38 | 84 | 17 | 1 | 6 | 40 | 2 | 4 |
| Luis Martinez | R | 29 | C | 282 | 23 | 59 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 1 |
| Jimmy Swift | R | 26 | SS | 434 | 36 | 89 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 33 | 5 | 3 |
| Chris Nelson | R | 28 | 3B | 448 | 41 | 99 | 18 | 4 | 9 | 49 | 4 | 2 |
| J.B. Shuck | L | 27 | LF | 497 | 57 | 117 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 36 | 10 | 6 |
| Zach Borenstein | L | 23 | LF | 441 | 49 | 97 | 18 | 2 | 14 | 50 | 6 | 6 |
| Cyle Hankerd | R | 29 | LF | 210 | 23 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 1 | 1 |
| Kaleb Cowart | B | 22 | 3B | 600 | 55 | 122 | 23 | 3 | 9 | 50 | 11 | 6 |
| Luke Carlin | B | 33 | C | 267 | 26 | 49 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 2 | 1 |
| John Hester | R | 30 | C | 296 | 30 | 56 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 1 | 2 |
| Matt Long | L | 27 | RF | 572 | 64 | 118 | 23 | 6 | 9 | 53 | 17 | 6 |
| Scott Cousins | L | 29 | CF | 262 | 27 | 51 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 6 | 2 |
| Brad Hawpe | L | 35 | RF | 187 | 17 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 1 | 1 |
| Lou Montanez | R | 32 | LF | 246 | 22 | 53 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 3 |
| C.J. Cron | R | 24 | 1B | 536 | 52 | 121 | 26 | 1 | 13 | 63 | 4 | 4 |
| Efren Navarro | L | 28 | 1B | 592 | 59 | 132 | 28 | 2 | 6 | 53 | 5 | 3 |
| Trent Oeltjen | L | 31 | RF | 403 | 41 | 75 | 18 | 3 | 8 | 37 | 12 | 6 |
| Bill Hall | R | 34 | 2B | 242 | 23 | 42 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 1 |
| Rusty Ryal | R | 31 | 1B | 336 | 28 | 65 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 1 | 1 |
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