The Jays look run down

The field looks so big, and the team looks quite small at this stage of the season. I think they got the most they could, but appear they are still a .500 ball club who had a hot May.
They lost players, but so does many teams, Just look at the NY Yankees rotation, not the stuff of legends there. I think the current GM is maybe on his way out. Reason I say that is that I am not sure how long the board will let Paul Beeston stay and Anthopolous is a Besston boy.

I think the die is cast, profits grew , fans appeared, at a considerable cost, but like the Leafs, the Jays are skidding off the to the side like a old car and will plummet below not only the Yankees, but Tampa eventually. A 4rth place finish when they perched in first by 6 games spells doom for the GM and manager.  Gibbons was Alex's choice, so should Alex walk, Gibbons will follow.

I like both guys, don't get me wrong, I though Anthopolous was a breathe of fresh air versus Riccardi, a spin doctor of the worst kind. But new shake ups in ownership have alerted us that Rogers wanted product placement, not championships. Blackberry's using Rogers air space, promos, TV spots, and new customers.

The team looks like they wish August 31st was September 30th, and September they have numerous games against top teams, and they will have nothing left.

I think they need to shut Hutchinson down now, and perhaps if they fall to 4rth soon, Strohman in early September. What's to be proven to let them achieve 200 innings. Hutch already had 3 very rough outings, Strohman less so but he came up part way into the season, but had his worst outing last weekend. He is fresher, but his psyche is fragil, despite his birth certificate. 

Lind has scuffled, Edwin is not in the groove and let's face it, too many Triple AAA types litter their line up.  They just look spent. The farm system was gutted, and needs a few good drafts now to recover. USA rate the Jays farm system in the bottom 10 of the majors, and bottom 10 is a compliment. So have other baseball evaluators.

GM's don't see the next wave of solid prospects, which is why they were asking for Sanchez and Strohman at the July deadline, or everyday players. The cupboard is sparse.

The problems the Jays will face is that they have money tied up in Buerhle, RA Dickey, Bautista, Reyes, and long deals. I expect these guys are all on revoccable waivers, such as the TExas Rangers have Darvish, Beltre and Rios, and Andrus. In hopes of returning kids and reducing payroll.

3 of their big money players need to move on, use that capital wisely and re stock the shelf with draftees and kids from other teams.  Next year cut ties with Rasmus, try and re sign Melky, get Gose back in CF, find a bloody 2nd baseman and put safety bubble wrap on Brett Lawrie,  Strohman, Hutchinson, and Sanchez are your core arms, try and move  out the deadwood, or the expensice kindling before they burn up. 

Hire Ernie Whitt as your next manager. He knows how to talk to kids, knows the market and the history, and go back to drawing board. See if you can pry Ortiz out of Boston, he always hits well here, and for him, a change of scenary might help for a year. Meld smart savvy vets with the kids.

They look old and tried to me, do they to you ?



August Swoon, Dog Days, and summer movies

August has brought a swoon to Toronto. After dusting off the yanks, Red Sox, the Jays cannot get things into the first gear.

Orioles came in an took 2 of 3. Tigers stole game1 of 3,Casey got knocked his perch in a 9th inning met down,Jays won the middle game, thanks to a less than stellar Joe Nathan, but the Jays don't look formidable.  They seem be ready for an August swoon, the Rays are coming !

Jays toss the old horsehide around.   In August, it is tradition for each team to hold a " dog days " event.


The Jays are no exception to that promotion, but the term The phrase dog days refers to the sultry days of summer  In the Northern Hemisphere the dog days of summer are most commonly experienced in the months of July and August, which typically observe the hottest summer temperatures. In the Southern Hemisphere, they typically occur in January and February, in the midst of the austral summer.

 The August swoon is upon us, 3weeks till someone says these games really count. Of course they count, but these next 3 count out teams, and count in those that survive.

And August movies, I like the Guardians, the Apes so far. Somehow I am the 6th guardian, but cannot divulge the plot twist in the sequel.

The debate rages - Would youy rather have Kadri or Brett Lawrie

A little over a year ago, I thought it was a fair argument that we compared Brett Lawrie, and Kadri.

Usually it becomes clearer that one of these two local athletes would exert themselves as the better choice by now, but after almost 2 years, we are not any further ahead.

I have watched both players have huge hi lights and major low lights, but both always show tremendous upside. Kadri gets the big goal in a big game, Brett Lawrie display remarkable defensive skills, and makes incredible plays in the field.

They both have the eyes of the city of Toronto upon them as Canadian born talent. Kadri a real local, Lawrie a BC home product in an American sport.  They both arrived with fanfare. Kadri, the first round pick of the Leafs, Lawrie was acquired via trade.

The other similarity is position, Lawrie has played 3rd base predominantly, but 2nd base most recently and Kadri has bounced from wing to centre , form 3rd line, 2nd line, and had a tryout with Kessel.

I also think Kadri has the largest edge because Toronto is a Leaf town, but Lawrie has the chance to play twice as many games as Kadri.

So who is ahead of whom at this point ?

Leaf fans would say Kadri, but he has been the centre of so many trade rumours,I don't think management totally hears the die hard fans.

After the Jays season is over, the spotlight is back on Kadri, and with Lawrie's injuries, he can have the stage again.  I still don't have the answer, the debate rages on.

At the half

So here we are at the half, and I apologize for the lack of writing, it has been a struggle. We lost my Dad in March, and my life changed.

But slow recoveries we earned. Life goes on, I listened to more people, took their advise and feel like I will make it.

Strong family, great  job, and my love of sports give me strength, and so I am back behind the keyboard.

So, as I listen to Dan Schulman on Baseball Tonight, I write at the last league game before the All Star Break. 

And it is the Oakland A's leading the charge, looking for some 40 year magic, the last time the A's won the World Series.  They were playing day World Series games in that time, now, they all start at 8 or 8:30 pm.

So, this photo this the owner Charles O. Finlay, with Rudi, Blue, Hunter, Campy, Tenace, Bando, Reggie Reggie and Rollie Fingers. Quite a collection, most soon to be millionaires on the open market.

Reggie left for the Tanks, Fingers to San Diego, Catfish a Yank, Rudi to the Sox.  They strung 3 Series wins together 72, 73 and 74.

These rebels existed before "fear the Beard", the "Country up Sox",  these dudes broke all the conventional rules for a cohesive clubhouse.

They have 59 wins, most in the majors, and they do it pitching, good defense and they use the whole roster.

And they don't hesitate to make changes. They brought in Samardzija and Hammel from the Cubs to a pitching staff that looked solid. A bullpen, which looks damn perfect.

If you put another bat in their line-up, I'd stack them against the Dodders or Giants or Brewers.

The World Series does not get awarded in early July, but they clearly rise up over the Tigers, anyone in the East, and Mariners and Angels might both be Wild card teamd.

Clearly the west cost can boast this year, there is no less that 5 teams that could make the playoffs from out west. The A's are the class of the American League, but we as usual, we've got a lot of baseball left to play.

Enjoy !

It has been 40 years

April, 1974.

"He's sitting on 714"

I can remember the moment on Monday Night Night Baseball, an anticipation of history.   LA Dodgers pitcher, left hander Al Downing tossed another hard inside pitch to Henry Aaron.

This pitch would not get tossed back by Joe Ferguson.

This pitch would leave the field and be a record.

Lest we forget Babe Ruth, but 715 had been reached, a home run milestone. He finished his career off with his 755th home run.  No drugs, no scandals, no issues.

This week we celebrate a 40 year reminder that a black baseball player passed the legendary Babe Ruth.  Somehow, I never felt Aaron got his due, there was always something missing.

The reason was easy, Aaron was black, and the USA was not quite as race tolerant as they feel they have become.  Ruth, still a hero of many generations was white and a cultural icon.  Forget the fact he drank heavily, cheated on his fight, and had an ego the size of his gut, he is remembered fondly for changing the game. 

Aaron was the victim of horrible racism, hate letters and death threats. White racism was very prevalent in 1974.

Aaron soldiered on, we all thought that before the end of the 1973 season, Aaron would have caught and passed Ruth, but pitchers seemed to be pitching very carefully.  Some reporters stated openly that white pitchers were avoiding being the one to give up a home run to Henry.

Al Downing of the LA Dodgers, a black pitcher, never worried about that. The LA Dodgers were very good team in 74, and would challenge for the World Series against the Oakland A's.  Al did not care what record was at stake, he just wanted the out.

I watched that game, anticipating an event, and was not disappointed. It went high, deep and long and not come back. 

40 years from now, there might another record set, and I hope my son will see it. By then, I hope society has dropped all feelings of racism, or at least most criticism of others. Celebrate the event !

$pring Training

I think if you ask any players today after 3 weeks of games, on March 22, they would say we're ready to play, and managers would love to avoid playing vets in meaningless games.


When or if will they reduce the amount of games in Spring Training.






Not any time soon. The amount of money made in running games in Florida and Arizona. Unfortunately, many smaller communities depend on 30 games and 30 dates selling 8 to 10,000 seats, parking revenue, plus all the souvenirs.

40 years ago these games were needed because many players needed 4-5 weeks time to reduce winter fat, but players show up in shape as they train year round.

$pring Training is a combo of getting pitchers ready, and a pure money grab. As I say, 30 chances to re coup dollars, plus the chance in January to get the cash from fantasy camps. 

Now this year, is anyone ready for baseball to return to the north ?


I just hope someone reminded the weather man that March 31 st is Game 1, and that is just 9 days from today.

When will Oakland find the right mixture

 

When the Athletics finally reach the World Series  the fans in California will breathe a sigh of relief, as the A's are often bridesmaids, and never brides.



Batters
What the depth-chart graphic below doesn’t represent very well, but what is still true of the Oakland A’s, is that they’ll probably be getting value from players who aren’t proper starters. Of particular note in this regard is outfielder Craig Gentry for whom Oakland traded Micheal Choice and a friend to Texas this offseason. Gentry’s defensive figures over the last three season have been, speaking in very technical sabermetric terms, entirely bananas. Accordingly, it’s not so unexpected to see him receive a very optimistic projection here in just 300 or so plate appearances.
Also of note: John Jaso is projected as a catcher here, but is likely to get a significant numbers of plate appearances — perhaps the bulk of them — at DH. Even a poor defensive catcher still receives a pretty substantial increase in value by way of positional adjustment — relative to a designated hitter, certainly. Expecting him to produce two wins in a DH capacity might be unrealistic

Pitchers
The starting pitchers in the depth-chart graphic below are arranged not in order of expected rotation slot.What doing that reveals is how Sonny Gray , and probably not Jarrod Parker, is maybe the staff ace. What it also reveals is that Tommy Milone, currently not expected to be included in the opening-day rotation, is projected like a pitcher who probably should be.
Elsewhere, one finds that Scott Kazmir‘s projection  isn’t a particularly favorable one. The reason for that, though, appears due less to mediocrity on a rate basis and more to a pretty conservative innings projections (91.1). This isn’t particularly strange for a pitcher who returned in 2013 following nearly a full two-year layoff.

Bench/Prospects

Given both his (a) skills and (b) performances relative to age/level, it’s not surprising to learn that shortstop Addison Russell is one of the top prospects in baseball. What’s perhaps more surprising is that Russell, who’s recorded just 13 cursory plate appearances above High-A ball, is projected already to produce wins at a league-average rate in the majors. He would appear, at this juncture, to be considerably more advanced than most of the other rookie-eligible players in the Oakland system.

Depth Chart

Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the A’s, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post.