When Zach Britton returned last week, I advised Brad Brach owners to “wait a few days before cutting him.” Hopefully you listened. Britton is back on the shelf for six to eight weeks. That time table smells aggressive to me. Based on similar injuries, I figure we're see him again around the end of July. Britton wasn't the only relief ace to hit the skids. Mark Melancon is down with a minor pronator injury. The Giants hope he'll return in 10 days. Meanwhile, Francisco Rodriguez melted down twice and lost his job. Say hello to Justin Wilson.
Over the last week, Edwin Diaz, Cody Allen, and Brach led the majors with three saves apiece. Greg Holland has a stranglehold atop the seasonal leaderboard with 13 saves. Craig Kimbrel has 10 saves. Allen is third with nine saves.
On the stolen base front, Billy Hamilton is a force for which there is no reckoning. He stole four bases in five attempts over the last seven days. Aaron Hicks, Lorenzo Cain, and Dee Gordon all swiped three bags. Hamilton now has 19 steals, a dominating lead over A.J. Pollock (11) and Gordon (10). For the curious among you, Stephen Piscotty is the worst base thief. He's gone 1-for-5.
Tier 1: The Elite (5)
Aroldis Chapman, New York Yankees
Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers
Craig Kimbrel, Boston Red Sox
Cody Allen, Cleveland Indians
Wade Davis, Chicago Cubs
I've tinkered with the tiers once again. It's a work in progress. Rather than fitting closers into cookie cutter categories, I like to let the state of the position determine how I organize the rankings. Presently, we have very few good, reliable arms to call upon.
Chapman started the week in typical fashion. Then, on Sunday, he blew a three-run lead in what turned into an 18-inning game. That's a costly blown save.
Jansen allowed an unearned run in a tune up outing on Saturday. He received a hold and a plate appearance as part of the 10-2
Allen continued to rack up the strikeouts with four in three innings. He also walked four batters. I'm not too concerned about the free passes, they represent 80 percent of his season total. He's sitting on a 0.69 ERA with 16.62 K/9 and 3.46 BB/9.
Davis has allowed one hit in his last 10 innings. That'll do pig, that'll do. He struck out five and earned one save in three innings of work.
Tier 2: The Core Performers (7)
Edwin Diaz, Seattle Mariners
Roberto Osuna, Toronto Blue Jays
Jeurys Familia, New York Mets
Alex Colome, Tampa Bay Rays
Kelvin Herrera, Kansas City Royals
David Robertson, Chicago White Sox
Ken Giles, Houston Astros
Herrera is marked as moving down because this is formerly Tier 3. The Nearly Elite tier completely vanished with two moving up, one moving down, and another hitting the disabled list.
Diaz had a great week despite kicking it off with a solo home run. He added three saves and seven strikeouts in four innings.
Osuna nearly matched Diaz. He nabbed two saves and seven strikeouts in four innings. His velocity has recovered most of its zip in recent appearances. It's still down about half a mph.
Familia tossed three perfect innings, good for a win and a save. He recorded precisely zero strikeouts. Addison Reed also pitched well in his setup role.
Herrera pitched four times in the last week, three of which went swimmingly. On Saturday, he coughed up a couple solo home runs to the Indians en route to a blown save loss. A small positive – his strikeout totals are edging upwards. He needs to do better than 7.62 K/9.
Giles was credited with a vulture win on Friday. He allowed a run via three hits, but the Astros offense bailed him out. He rebounded with a perfect two-strikeout save on Sunday.
Tier 3: Stable Hands (5)
Greg Holland, Colorado Rockies
Brad Brach, Baltimore Orioles
Seung Hwan Oh, St. Louis Cardinals
Tony Watson, Pittsburgh Pirates
Jim Johnson, Atlanta Braves
Restructuring the tiers can get confusing with regards to who gets an up or down arrow. This used to be the Questions tier. I'm not longer questioning their job security. You'll soon notice I made a brand new between the old Tier 4 and Tier 5. And to add to the confusion, I named it Questions. What? It's an appropriate title!
By results, Holland should probably rank somewhere around Diaz and Osuna. As I frequently state, this column is about future value. And there's just so little room for forgiveness at Coors Field. He added two saves and four strikeouts in two innings this week.
Brach allowed a couple runs while converting three of three save opportunities. After posting a massive strikeout rate through April 14, he's recorded just 5.68 K/9 over his last 12.2 innings. Keep an eye on Darren O'Day. He's also pitching well.
As much as I want Trevor Rosenthal to push Oh back out of the ninth inning, the Final Boss continues to do enough to feel secure in his role. Despite only 7.02 K/9, Oh's swinging strike rate suggests more strikeouts are ahead. He picked up two saves.
Watson blew a one-run lead against the Dodgers last night. Los Angeles eventually won in the 10th inning. Watson's only other appearance was a two-inning victory. Felipe Rivero is pitching very well if Watson falters.
Tier 4: Questions (5)
Matt Bush, Texas Rangers Bud Norris, Los Angeles Angels A.J. Ramos, Miami Marlins
Brandon Maurer, San Diego Padres Raisel Iglesias, Cincinnati RedsBush has one save for the season despite earning the closer job over three weeks ago. Last year, the Blue Jays produced something like six save opportunities through the first three months. Thereafter, they generated a normal total of save chances. The Rangers will also turn into a normal team before long. And then we'll finally get to see Bush.
The down arrow doesn't do Norris justice. He's pitched superbly, but his long term job security is in serious doubt. As an Angel, it comes with the territory. Norris experienced a little bit of everything this week – a
Ramos was tagged with the loss on Tuesday after allowing an unearned run. He's not in this section because of his performance though. Rather, the Marlins have given every indication that they prefer to upgrade. Probably because he lacks the calling card fastball of a typical closer. With Miami looking for an excuse to move on, he always has a short leash.
The Padres produce few save opportunities, but there's no questioning Maurer's performance. Long viewed as baffling disappointing, Maurer is mixing strikeout stuff (12.83 K/9), a low walk rate (0.68 BB/9), and a solid 51.9 percent ground ball rate. It adds up to a believable 2.03 ERA. Too bad about the lack of opportunities.
Iglesias had a rare three appearance week. He usually has a couple long outings. He did toss a two-inning save on Tuesday. He's probably unavailable tonight. Look to Michael Lorenzen.
Tier 5: Roller Coasters (7)
Justin Wilson, Detroit TigersHector Neris, Philadelphia Phillies
Derek Law, San Francisco LawNeftali Feliz, Milwaukee Brewers
Brandon Kintzler, Minnesota Twins
Santiago Casilla, Oakland Athletics
UP Matt Albers, Enny Romero, Washington Nationals
Fernando Rodney, Arizona Diamondbacks
With K-Rod deposed, closing duties fall to Wilson. Since he's a southpaw, his job security is always iffy until he's fully established. He certainly has the numbers to support a good long look in the ninth – 14.11 K/9, 2.45 BB/9, and a 1.23 ERA in 14.2 innings.
Neris was saddled with a loss last night. Despite this, the outlook for him is improving. He's recommitted to his signature splitter. That should drive his strikeout rate north. In the meantime, don't be surprised if Joaquin Benoit is asked to save
Law should be a solid closer until Melancon returns. He has a 2.40 ERA with 8.40 K/9 and 3.60 BB/9. He throws a 94 mph fastball and two breaking balls.
Kintzler has allowed four runs in his last three innings. Keep an eye on the Twins bullpen. Matt Belisle is the speculative target – not that he's a great asset.
With Sean Doolittle shelved, Casilla is the undisputed closer in Oakland. He was credited with the win for one of those K-Rod meltdowns. Be wary, his 2.77 ERA isn't supported by a 6.92 K/9 and 4.15 BB/9.
The Nationals bullpen is disaster time. Albers saved the day last Wednesday. Then he blew a save on Sunday. Enny Romero got a chance to close the door yesterday and failed. Luckily, Shawn Kelley is expected to return soon. Until then, it's a revolving door.
Rodney is still a closer. He even earned a two-out save in his only appearance. It was at Coors Field too.
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Injured
Cam Bedrosian, Los Angeles Angels (groin)
Zach Britton, Baltimore Orioles (forearm strain)
Mark Melancon, San Francisco Giants (pronator strain)
Shawn Kelley, Washington Nationals (back)
Bedrosian's throwing program has advanced beyond 120 feet. He'll be back on the bump soon.
Britton is said to be out six to eight weeks. Melancon hopes to return in 10 days. Kelley is also set to return soon. He's already throwing off a mound. The Nationals bullpen is a disaster. They'll be happy to have him back. Koda Glover is on the rehab trail too.
The Deposed
Jeanmar Gomez, Philadelphia Phillies
Blake Treinen, Washington Nationals
Ryan Madson, Oakland Athletics
Joaquin Benoit, Philadelphia Phillies
Sam Dyson, Texas Rangers
Francisco Rodriguez, Detroit Tigers
After two more blown save losses, the Tigers were forced to bump K-Rod from the ninth inning. He allowed five runs in one inning of work (two appearances).
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The Steals Department
The waiver wire is flush with power and bereft of stolen bases. Let's continue targeting specific pitchers and catchers. The Pirates are the team to watch. Now that Noah Syndergaard is on the shelf, Tyler Glasnow and Gerrit Cole are competing for top target status. Cole pitches on Thursday against the Diamondbacks. He'll also face the Nationals next week. Glasnow pitches Friday.
Arizona lacks freely available stolen base threats. If you have access to Chris Owings, use him. David Peralta, Brandon Drury, and Gregor Blanco are lesser threats for a stolen base. If you're looking ahead to the Nationals matchup, Jayson Werth and Michael Taylor are the guys to own for swipes. And more in the case of Werth.
Any time Miguel Montero is catching for the Cubs, it's green light day on the bases. He's allowed 11 steals in 11 attempts through just 87 innings. Willson Contreras catches the ever-exploitable Jon Lester. The Cardinals are the next team to face the Cubbies. Leadoff man Kolten Wong is the guy to try, followed by power hitter Randal Grichuk.
The Padres have had some trouble with stolen bases too, especially Trevor Cahill. He's next scheduled to pitch on Saturday versus the White Sox. Tyler Saladino, Tim Anderson, and Leury Garcia are the top baserunning threats in Chicago.
