Baseball is a game of secrets

Baseball is a game of secrets and half-truths. All 30 teams employ a man whose entire job (well, most of it) is to stand there and dance around in code to relay instructions to the batter and runners. The pitcher and catcher have their own gestural language. After the game, players usually speak in a strange code in which they appear to be speaking English and answering questions, but they somehow don’t manage to say anything coherent at all. Then there’s the front office, where the secrets run so deep that depending on the day of the week, you might not be able to get the people there to admit that they are running a baseball team.
Secrets are important in the game. Teams have all sorts of things which they know that they prefer that no one else knows or—even moreso—that no one else even knows that they know. If that information is truly exclusive and if it’s important, then that secret can be worth a lot of money. If there’s a reason that the “analytics revolution” is now simply the “we all have an analytics department” statement of facts, it’s that an analytics department is a way for a team to potentially find a nugget of information that they can use to their advantage. It’s the same reason that teams have invested in all sorts of areas of knowledge.
The thing about secrets is that eventually, they get out. Ben Franklin famously observed that “three may keep a secret if two are dead.” As of this writing, there are 30 major-league teams.
How long does it take for a secret to make the rounds in baseball? One recent roster fad—the good-framing catcher—was once a secret super-power that teams sorta knew about, but few really realized how valuable (and worth chasing) it was. Some teams knew about it earlier than others, although knowing about it and doing something about it are two separate things.
Even once a secret gets out—the first public article quantifying pitch framing appeared in 2008—it took a while for the league to adjust, so there was a definite advantage to being the first to adopt the new technology. The now-famous example of the Rays signing Jose Molina (with his career .233/.282/.327 batting line), largely to take advantage of his otherworldly talents in framing the ball and provide them value well beyond what his contract actually paid, was an exercise in a team that hopped on the train early. They realized that a) this talent existed, and b) Molina was a good source of it, and no one else was paying attention to those facts.
Now, we hear about teams pricing that framing skill into their contract offers. Teams have begun training their catchers in the fine art of the frame and even moving players behind the plate if they feel they might have a good framing candidate. Now, framing is so passe that few bother to write about it. When Jason Castro got a three-year, $24.5 million deal from the Twins in the offseason, everyone nodded that while his batting line hasn’t been so great in recent years, he can still steal a few strikes. All the work that went into finding, then quantifying, then acting on that framing effect is now for naught. Everyone has it now.
But, let’s say that tomorrow, someone finds something interesting in one of the 30 MLB StatCaves out there. How long can they expect that advantage to last?

Let’s start with a strategic innovation that we know has completely saturated the league: the one-inning closer. The generally accepted theory is that the idea was “invented” in the late 1980s by A's manager Tony La Russa and his use of Dennis Eckersley (although as Rob Mains has pointed out, Pete Rose used John Franco in much the same way in 1987, before Eckersley really solidified his role in 1988).
How long did it take for the idea of having a pitcher pitch the ninth inning (and the ninth inning only) to record saves to overrun the league? First, here’s a graph of the percentage of saves from 1950-2016 that involved the pitcher getting three outs or fewer.
 Saves were “invented” in the early 1960s and not formally adopted by MLB as a statistic until 1969, but any game that has an extant box score can be retroactively awarded a save. We can see that up until about the late 1980s, the majority of saves required more than three outs. In 1987, the number was 40.0 percent. Fourteen years later, in 2001, the number had more than doubled to 83.4 percent.

From the time of Franco and Eck, it actually took more than a decade to get to near-universal use of the strategy, although within the first seven years or so, more than half the teams in MLB were using it. It is debatable whether the advent of the one-inning closer is a net positive or a net negative for teams, but clearly teams have voted on which side they prefer.
Let’s pull a number completely out of the air and say that using the strategy was worth 1.0 win above replacement in an environment where no one else was doing it. Once everyone was doing it, there was no more advantage to be gained. If it took roughly 10 years for the strategy to be fully adapted and implemented league wide, and the rate of implementation was mostly consistent (a few teams picked it up each year, and it was roughly the same number in each of the years), that insight would be worth about 5.5 wins over the course of those 10 years (1.0 WAR + 0.9 WARP + 0.8 WARP + ...). Those might not be pitch-perfect assumptions, but they give us the correct order of magnitude.
Now let’s look at a couple of other strategic trends in baseball that have appeared and that we can easily observe in the data. One is the aforementioned catcher framing, which helpfully, BP has statistics on back to 1988 (though the numbers from 1988 to 2007 are calculated in a different way—using play-by-play data—than those from 2008 to 2016.) I took data at the team level on how many framing runs each team had gotten from its catchers and then took the standard deviation of that number. Here’s the graph from 1988 to 2016.

 If teams were all getting roughly the same performance from their catchers in terms of framing, the standard deviation would be low. It seems that from the late 1980s onward, the standard deviation actually drifted ever higher, suggesting that teams were getting wildly different amounts of value from their catchers (and apparently, no one really noticed how much).


It’s not entirely clear when the “framing revolution” began to be implemented, and when teams went from just trying to grab the catchers who were good at framing to actively trying to increase the supply of good framers in the league (and kicking out the Ryan Doumit types). The numbers show that the common wisdom that the catcher market is now being flooded with good framers, decreasing the relative advantage of having a good one, is correct.
We see that in 2011, the standard deviation between teams was over 20 runs, but in 2016, it had fallen to 14 runs. There’s still a lot to be gained from having a good framer, although at this point, not as much as there once was. We don’t know what the natural low for the standard deviation is. Even if we assumed that the only thing that teams cared about in their catchers was the ability to frame (not true), and that they were out to find the 60 best practitioners of that craft, one of them would still be better than the rest, and there would be some variance.
But we can see that certainly there’s been a move toward teams striving to find (or make) their own good-framing catcher. More importantly, the key nugget of wisdom is that teams should factor this skill into their evaluations of catchers. If we mark the time from the original Dan Turkenkopf catcher-framing article to the end of the 2016 season, we get a roughly nine-year period.
Now, let’s look at shifts. Again, it’s not entirely clear that The Shift is actually a net positive for the defense, but the league keeps shifting more and more. The fact that the shifting rate for the league overall has gone up by an order of magnitude over the past few years makes this analysis a little tougher, but we can still make a graph. This time, I’m using the coefficient of variation, which is just the ratio of the standard deviation of a distribution to its mean.

I pulled the number of batters that each team shifted on, from 2010 to 2016 (the only years for which we have public data). The publicly available data is only plate appearances that ended up with a ball in play, so strikeouts, walks, hit by pitch, and home runs are not included.

Teams are getting more similar, and that coefficient of variance has been halved over the course of a mere five seasons, but teams are not completely in line with each other at this point. Maybe this year, we will see a further tightening. If The Shift truly is spreading across the league, we will. Teams all face the same (basic) set of hitters and if it makes sense for one team to shift against a hitter, it probably makes sense for the other 29 to do so as well.
Unlike catcher framing, where to increase the supply of good framers in the ecosystem a team has to locate and groom a good framer, increasing the number of shifts is (in theory) as simple as pointing the third baseman to a new spot on the diamond. Once the strategy reaches full saturation, the variation will probably reach down near zero. Again, if we’ve deleted half of the variation within five years and the trend line holds, then we are looking at a situation where everyone shifts as much as everyone else (roughly) in about 10 years.
I’ll gladly admit that some of this is slap-dash math, but I’d argue that we have a decent case that it takes about a decade for an idea to fully engulf Major League Baseball and become the new normal.
What’s a New Idea Worth?

I’ve previously lamented the problem of the “second-move advantage” in baseball research. It’s easy to start a sentence with “if a win is worth $9 million dollars ...” and end it with “then the brilliant idea I have is worth a cool million at least!” The problem is that eventually your idea gets out into the baseball ecosystem and eventually every other team can copy it without paying for the R&D costs that it took to come up with it.
That line of thought might be a little too pessimistic. Yes, a brilliant idea can be copied after a while, and eventually everyone will adopt it, but there’s an intermezzo in there that lasts a few years where even if a team doesn’t have a monopoly on the idea, they still have a relative advantage over some of the other teams in the game. And that’s still worth something.
If it takes a decade (or so, and yes there are error bars and I’m fine with that) for the full depreciation to happen, then a new idea is going to produce value, even if it’s diminishing value, for a while. It’s possible that I’m over-estimating that time, and that these sorts of big-ticket items take longer to fully make their way into the fabric of the game, but the point is that the process is not instant. It’s gradual and incremental, and the spaces in between are where the money is made.
Earlier in this article, I completely pulled a number out of the air and suggested that for an idea that produced a strategic advantage worth one win in the very short term for the team that had initially adopted it, we could expect that idea to produce 5.5 wins (or so, and yes there are error bars and I’m fine with that) of value over 10 years. Maybe it’s a little less. Maybe it varies by the type of idea. But in that delay is value.

It’s hard to come up with an idea that’s worth one win, but we can start to mold a math equation around how much value an idea worth X short-term wins would produce, accounting for the depreciation that comes from the fact that in a few years, everyone will copy it. This also begins to show the value of competitive intelligence. Maybe a team isn’t the first to think of a new idea, but if they can identify what another team is doing and see the value in it, then they could be the second to jump on the bandwagon, and could gain value that way while everyone else catches up.

It probably also explains why general managers say so little about the fun things that are going on behind those office walls. After all, the longer they can hold their brilliant idea out from the light, the longer it will take until that “discover and adapt” process begins in the other 29 front offices. Silence is worth money. We need to accept a depressing conclusion that comes with this train of thought, too. In any business, sports included, you’re only as good as your last idea and your idea comes pre-installed with an expiration date on how useful it is.
But before we depart for the day, let’s look at this from one other angle. One baffling question that has never been quite fully answered is what a general manager (or more broadly, a front office) is worth. If we assume that a general manager’s job is to come up and implement strategies that make a team better, including coming up with cool ideas and not being the last one to take up other people’s good ideas once they inevitably leak out, we are now a little closer to a framework for figuring out the sum total of those contributions.

Smoak Rises

I guess we’ve officially entered prospect season. Cody Bellinger has been making fantasy owners very happy since his debut, but we saw the return of Jose Berrios and surprising call-up of Ian Happ last weekend before injuries in the Indians’ outfield brought Bradley Zimmer to the majors this week. Most fantasy owners have been waiting on Yoan Moncada, but he’s expected to be placed on the 7-day disabled list with Triple-A Charlotte due to a sore left thumb. Don’t worry, his time should still come soon enough. Hopefully we can say the same for Mets prospect Amed Rosario, who owns a ridiculous .365/.407/.519 batting line through 39 games with Triple-A Las Vegas and appears to have little else to prove down there. Come on, Mets.

Berrios struggled with his control while posting an ugly 8.02 ERA through 14 starts with the Twins last season, but he allowed just one run on two hits and one walk over 7 2/3 innings against the Indians last Saturday. It was obviously a very encouraging outing, though four strikeouts and nine swinging strikes (including none on his curveball) left me wanting more. Berrios is already owned in 50 percent of Yahoo leagues, so he’s not in this week’s recommendations and he might not have been even if he was below that number. I wouldn’t go out of my way to pick him up just yet in standard formats.

 Tommy Joseph 1B, Phillies (Yahoo: 20 percent owned)

I mentioned Joseph in the first Waiver Wired of the season, as I was excited to see what was in store for a follow-up after he hit 21 homers with an .813 OPS in just 107 games last season, but he really scuffled out of the gate in April and soon appeared at risk of losing playing time. However, he has solidified his place in the Phillies’ lineup this month by batting .395 (17-for-43) with four home runs and six doubles through 14 games. He has improved his season OPS from .476 to .806 along the way. With the recent hot streak, Joseph has found himself in the cleanup spot in each of his last four starts. It took a little while longer than I expected, but he’s a viable corner infielder option.

Bradley Zimmer OF, Indians (Yahoo: 21 percent owned)

You can see some of my extended thoughts on Zimmer in this week’s Rotoworld Roundtable. I generally see him as someone worth picking up outside of shallow formats. The strikeouts are a concern, but there’s opportunity in Cleveland’s outfield with Abraham Almonte and Brandon Guyer facing extended absences. Zimmer should have some leash to
start out with here. The 24-year-old had a rough first stint in Triple-A last year, but he was batting .294/.371/.532 with five home runs and nine steals over through his first 33 games at the level this season. I like the potential for pop and speed, even if he’s hitting in the bottom-third of the order.

Nate Karns SP/RP, Royals (Yahoo: 31 percent owned)

While the overall numbers are underwhelming on the surface, I can’t ignore a pitcher with back-to-back double-digit strikeout games. Karns actually has a 2.08 ERA and 29/4 K/BB ratio in 17 1/3 innings across three starts this month. Perhaps this is just a blip, but something has changed here, as Karns is relying more heavily on his curveball in his most recent starts and getting more swings and misses in the process. It’s fair to wonder how viable this approach will be for the long-term, but I’ll happily chase the strikeouts here. Karns has quietly struck out 318 batters in 305 2/3 innings in the majors.

Zack Godley SP/RP, Diamondbacks (Yahoo: 26 percent owned)

It was looking like the Diamondbacks would be forced to turn to Archie Bradley to fill a rotation spot after Shelby Miller required Tommy John surgery, but Godley is staking his claim on that gig. After coming into the year with a 5.34 ERA over 36 appearances (including 15 starts) in the majors, the 27-year-old has a 1.93 ERA with 19 strikeouts in 18 2/3 innings in three starts this season. He held the scuffling Mets to just one hit on Monday. I wouldn’t mention Godley in this space unless I saw something interesting behind his performance. He has ramped up the use of his curveball so far while missing a ton of bats in the process. He’s also inducing ground balls at an insane (73.2 percent) clip. Yes, it’s a small sample and yes, walks have been a trouble spot for him, but he’s suddenly very interesting. Give him a try against the Padres this weekend.

Ian Happ 2B, Cubs (Yahoo: 31 percent owned)

This was perhaps the toughest call of the week for me. Happ’s call-up was a surprise and I’m not sure what his role will be after Jason Heyward returns from the disabled list, but he has at least forced the possibility of sticking around by going 4-for-13 with two homers, one double, and four walks through his first four games in the majors. Selected ninth overall back in 2015, the 22-year-old enjoyed a monster spring and was batting .298/.362/.615 with nine homers and 25 RBI through his first 26 games in Triple-A this year. I’m not sure about the batting average, but he looks like he belongs. It’s just a matter of opportunity, which is a tricky call with Joe Maddon’s moving parts. I wouldn’t go dropping someone really important for him, but if you have the proper roster flexibility, I could see being aggressive here while we wait to see how things are going to play out.

Devon Travis 2B, Blue Jays (Yahoo: 29 percent owned)

Travis was a target of mine this spring, but he was flat-out awful in April and lost his leadoff hitter job in the process. Fortunately, he has gotten back into the game this month, batting .327 with six RBI, two stolen bases, and nine runs scored over 15 games. Amazingly, 12 of his 17 hits this month have been doubles. This is a guy who hit .303 with 19 homers and 85 RBI in 163 games between 2015-2016, so I think we’ll see more power soon. The Blue Jays are obviously encouraged with what they are seeing, as Travis has moved into the fifth spot in each of his last two starts. He’s a fine play in most formats, ideally as a middle infielder option.

Neil Walker 2B, Mets (Yahoo: 37 percent owned)

There aren’t many positives with the reeling Mets right now, but Walker has at least awoken from his early-season slumber. After putting up two homers with a .583 OPS in April, the 31-year-old is batting .351 with nine extra-base hits (including two homers) and 12 RBI through 15 games this month while settling into the cleanup spot. If anything, he’s answering concerns about his back following season-ending surgery last year. Given his past production, it’s not a stretch to think that he could hit 15-plus homers the rest of the way. I just wonder if he’ll actually finish the year with the Mets or end up being trade bait by July.

Justin Smoak 1B, Blue Jays (Yahoo: 22 percent owned)

Smoak has been featured in Waiver Wired a couple of times over the years, but his career hasn’t exactly worked out as originally hoped. But maybe, just maybe we’re seeing him turn a new leaf. Now 30 years old, Smoak is already up to nine homers and 27 RBI to go along with a strong .280/.342/.545 batting line. It’s easy to dismiss this as a possible fluke, but he’s currently sporting the highest contact rate of his career. The switch-hitter has struck out just once in 36 plate appearances against lefties all season while putting up four homers and 10 RBI. I’m not saying to drop Edwin Encarnacion for him or something, but why not take a chance on him as a corner infielder or bench option?

Tony Zych RP, Mariners (Yahoo: 13 percent owned)
Steve Cishek RP, Mariners (Yahoo: 7 percent owned)
James Pazos RP, Mariners (Yahoo: 0 percent owned)

I’ve had about enough with the closer changes, thank you very much. Edwin Diaz was a top-five closer for me after his dominant rookie season and appeared to be righting the ship after getting off to a shaky start this year, but four walks on Monday was enough for the Mariners to give him a break from the role. Diaz is still missing plenty of bats, but he’s already allowed more walks and home runs than he did for all of last season. The Mariners want him to work on his mechanics before putting him back in save situations. I don’t think it will be long before Diaz figures it out, so definitely don’t drop him, but feel free to grab the alternatives while we wait. Cishek has the most experience of this group, but he just made his return from hip surgery and he blew his first save chance on Tuesday. This opens the door for Zych and Pazos (3 percent owned), among others. Go crazy, you save-hungry monsters.

Shopping at the five-and-dime:


Brad Hand RP, Padres (Yahoo: 7 percent owned)

Carter Capps appeared to be the most logical stash in the Padres’ bullpen coming into the spring, but his return from Tommy John surgery hasn’t gone as smoothly as originally hoped. The hard-throwing right-hander pitched in some minor league rehab games last month, but the Padres recently sent him back to Arizona to work on his mechanics. There’s no clear timetable for him to join the major league bullpen, so Hand should be stashed away in case the Padres decide to make a change with closer Brandon Maurer. Maurer deserved better luck on Wednesday, but he’s now allowed nine runs over his last four appearances. Meanwhile, Hand owns a 1.88 ERA and 31/9 K/BB ratio over 24 innings this season. This isn’t complicated. Stash and see how it goes.

Cameron Maybin OF, Angels (Yahoo: 4 percent owned)

After falling into a brutal slump at the plate, Maybin has picked up eight hits in 10 at-bats over the last two games to pull his batting average up from .180 to .231 on the year. Perhaps most importantly, he’s hitting leadoff for the Angels these days with third baseman Yunel Escobar expected to miss 2-4 weeks due to a strained left hamstring. Maybin carries his own injury concerns, but he’s 9-for-9 in stolen base attempts this season, so he’s one of the better widely-available speed options out there right now.

Luis Perdomo SP/RP, Padres (Yahoo: 4 percent owned)

Prior to his trip to the disabled list on Wednesday, Trevor Cahill was the most interesting pitcher in the Padres’ rotation, but don’t overlook what Perdomo is doing. After a couple of subpar outings to begin the year, the 24-year-old has reeled off four straight quality starts while posting a 3.00 ERA and 26/6 K/BB ratio in 24 innings. He fanned a career-high nine batters in his most recent start Monday against the Brewers. Perdomo is getting a ton of whiffs on his curveball and owns the highest ground ball rate (70.5 percent) among pitchers with at least 30 innings pitched. We can’t ignore that the Padres aren’t helping when it comes to offense or defense, but Perdomo should certainly be owned in more leagues at this point.

 Jared Hoying OF, Rangers (Yahoo: 0 percent owned)

I don’t have high expectations here, but Hoying should see plenty of playing time in center field against right-handed starters with Carlos Gomez on the shelf with a right hamstring strain. Ryan Rua should see at-bats against lefties, although in left field. The 28-year-old (Happy Birthday!) Hoying didn’t do much in his sporadic opportunities in the majors last season, but he has shown some pop and speed in the minors. The opportunity is there for value, so that’s something.

Jacob Faria SP, Rays (Yahoo: 0 percent owned)

I mentioned Chase Whitley in this space last week, but it turns out that Erasmo Ramirez (Yahoo: 3 percent owned) will fill a spot in the rotation with Blake Snell back in Triple-A. This might only be a short-term situation, as Faria is making a strong case for a call-up. Selected in the 10th round back in 2011, the 23-year-old has piled up 62 strikeouts in 41 1/3 innings in Triple-A this season while posting a 3.92 ERA over eight starts. He walks more batters than you’d like to see and home runs have been an issue for him this year, but it’s probably time to stash him if you haven’t already.



Reymond Fuentes OF, Diamondbacks (Yahoo: 0 percent owned)

The Diamondbacks have been a nice surprise this season under new manager Torey Lovullo, but they’ll have to get by without A.J. Pollock for a while after he went down with a Grade 1 strain of his right groin on Sunday. Fuentes and Gregor Blanco (Yahoo: 0 percent) figure to share playing time in center field during his absence. Blanco is obviously the more established player, but both bring some interesting speed to the table. Fuentes had nine steals in 34
games in Triple-A this season prior to his call-up. He has hit leadoff in both of his starts so far. Given the injury situation with the Braves right now, Jace Peterson (Yahoo: 0 percent owned) and Danny Santana (Yahoo: 0 percent owned) should also get some consideration. The Braves might look outside the organization (James Loney, perhaps) if the reports are true and Freddie Freeman requires a lengthy absence.

Seth Lugo SP/RP, Mets (Yahoo: 2 percent owned)

I’m not counting on anything from Lugo as he attempts to rehab from a partial tear of the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, but he’s scheduled to begin a minor league rehab assignment on Thursday and could be an option for the Mets’ rotation within the next couple of weeks. With Robert Gsellman struggling and recent waiver claim Tommy Milone holding down another spot, the club has a clear need. Lugo posted a 2.67 ERA in eight starts and nine relief appearances as a rookie last year and is at least worth stashing as he begins his rehab assignment.

Injuries

Injuries happen.


The 15 day DL, the 30 day , the 60 day DL are common resting spots for wounded players.


But nowadays teams seem to use the 10 day DL as a place to rest players, take the edge off a veteran who is struggling.

But teams are abusing the DL and they know it, it has been made simpler with the 10 day DL. You can bring up a hot pitcher and save a start or two for an aged vet.


Ten days is over so quick, you do not even have to send the "injured player " down for a rehab assignment.

Just ask the team doctor to make up a phony prescription alleging an injury.

The "fire sale " aspect of any team has to be taken into consideration, of course, but the Jays are dusting off the "sell now" plan in preparation for a summer sale of key assets.

Donaldson, Estrada, Tulowitski, even Russ Martin could be available for younger players.
Blow everything up, like the Yankees did in  2016, and come close to the same result.

I don't think the Jays have the farm system is rich enough on it's own.  The richest farm system in the majors a few years ago has been stripped bare.

But injuries take their toll, they decimate a rich farm system,

All is Wellington

In what was a bit of a head-scratching move late in the off-season, the Diamondbacks made a decision to designate Welington Castillo for assignment. The 30-year-old backstop had served as their starting catcher for each of the previous two seasons and had performed as one of the upper-echelon catchers in the league.

The D'Backs had serious questions about his defense, game-calling and pitch framing though, and opted instead to employ a platoon of Jeff Mathis and Chris Iannetta.

That left other clubs, like the Orioles, able to swoop in late in the game and land a bat-first catcher at a discount price, a one-year deal for $6 million with a club option for 2018.

The fantasy community as a whole seemingly kept its belief in Beef. Heading into the final weekend of fantasy draft season in March, Castillo resided as the 11th catcher by average draft position, being selected on average right around pick 180.

Sure, he was experiencing a slight downgrade in home park by leading Chase Field, but Camden Yards is still one of the top run-scoring environments in the American League.

He was off to a nice start through 17 games, slashing .314/.333/.443 before landing on the 10-day disabled list with tendinitis in his right shoulder.

He has been a man possessed since returning though. Castillo went 6-for-10 with three RBI in two games against the Tigers earlier in the week. On Friday he kicked his production up another notch.

Castillo tagged Jays' starter Aaron Sanchez for a game-tying two-run homer in the sixth inning, pulling the O's even at 3-3. He wasn't finished though. After Mark Trumbo reached on a two-out single in the 10th inning, Castillo pummeled a Jason Grilli offering over the wall for a walk-off homer.

It was the fourth multi-homer game of Castillo's career. He's now 9-for-15 (.600) with a pair of homers and seven RBI in three games since returning from the DL. As long as he can remain healthy, he looks like a lock to finish as a top-10 catcher.



It's a Wwwwwwwwwwinning Streak!

On May 8, the Texas Rangers dropped their series opener to the Padres in San Diego. It was their third straight loss and seventh in their last nine games.

Their record sat at a dismal 13-20 and the two-time reigning champions of the American League West found themselves in the cellar in their own division.

While their outlook for the season was beginning to look dim, it was nothing that a matchup against Jered Weaver couldn't fix.

The Rangers pounded Weaver and the Padres 11-0 the next day and they've been on fire ever since. After taking the final three games from the Padres and sweeping three-game sets from both the Athletics and Phillies, the Rangers rode a nine-game winning streak into Motown on Friday night.

The Tigers, playing without ailing slugger Miguel Cabrera (oblique), were also without cleanup hitter Victor Martinez who was away from the club on paternity leave. That made what's normally a very dangerous middle of the order look much more tame on Friday evening, and Nick Martinez took advantage.

The right-hander allowed only an unearned run in his five innings of work, earning his first victory of the season and giving the Rangers a 10-game winning streak. It's the longest streak in the majors this season, and the fourth-longest in Rangers' club history.

Matt Bush allowed an unearned run in the ninth inning, but was still able to convert his save chance. He has now closed out four games during the Rangers' streak and owns a scintillating 1.10 ERA and 0.98 WHIP on the year.

The power was supplied by a pair of hard-hitting sluggers who have struggled to make consistent contact this season. Mike Napoli clubbed his ninth home run of the season, a solo shot off of Daniel Norris in the fourth inning, while Gallo added the dagger with a mammoth two-run blast in the sixth, his 13th of the season.

While both have been terrific run producers in the Rangers' lineup this season, with a combined 51 RBI to their credit, they're each hitting under .190 on the season.

Now 23-20, the Rangers sit in second place in their division, 6 1/2 games back of the Houston Astros. If the season were to end today however, they comfortably sit in the top Wild Card spot and wouldn't miss out on the postseason.

The Rangers will look to extend their streak to 11 game when they battle Tigers' ace Justin Verlander on Saturday night.

The Canha Man Can

Mark Canha provided an unexpected lift to the Athletics' offense against Chris Sale and the Red Sox on Friday night in Oakland.

Canha doubled in his first at-bat of the night, leading off the third inning, but was stranded there. His next trip to the dish he crushed a run-scoring triple off of Sale to get the A's on the board in the fifth inning.

Continuing his trend of adding an extra base with each hit, Canha led off the 10th inning by clobbering a Heath Hembree offering deep into the seats in left field, sending the A's home as walk-off winners.

Since his recall from Triple-A on May 9, Canha is 10-for-21 (.476) with a pair of homers, three doubles and a triple. As long as he continues to hit, he should see semi-regular at-bats, especially against left-handed pitching.

That makes him a very interesting addition in AL-only formats and someone who could be useful in the deepest of mixed leagues as well.


American League Quick Hits:  Jose Quintana was forced to settle for a no-decision after eight brilliant innings of one-hit baseball against the Mariners... Edwin Diaz fired two scoreless innings in relief during a tied game against the White Sox, and has seemingly moved closer to recapturing the closer's role... Chris Sale struck out 10 in a no-decision against the A's and has now fanned 10 or more batters in each of his last eight starts... Nate Karns was lifted from his start against the Twins after just five innings and 72 pitches due to stiffness in his forearm. The Royals are calling his exit precautionary though and sound optimistic that he'll be able to make his next scheduled start... Kelvin Herrera blew his second save of the season, serving up a game-tying homer to Kennys Vargas in the ninth inning... Cody Allen worked a perfect ninth inning against the Astros to secure his 11th save of the season... Luis Severino fanned seven in a no-decision against the Rays, but had to be lifted after five innings due to an elevated pitch count... Miguel Cabrera (oblique) is expected to return to the Tigers' lineup on Saturday...Athletics' manager Bob Melvin indicated that Yonder Alonso (knee) could be held out of the starting lineup for the remainder of the weekend... The Mariners had to back off of Mitch Haniger (oblique) for a couple of days after he experienced soreness following Thursday's workout... Tyson Ross (shoulder) will begin a minor league rehab assignment on Tuesday... Tyler Skaggs (oblique) will resume his throwing program on Monday... Josh Donaldson (calf) is expected to begin a minor league rehab assignment next week... Troy Tulowitzki (hamstring) could be activated from the DL on Saturday.... An MRI on the injured hamstring of Albert Pujols came back clean... Matt Dufy (Achilles) was able to take batting practice and field ground balls on Friday, and could soon resume his minor league rehab assignment.... Wilson Ramos (knee) looked impressive in batting practice on Friday and has been catching bullpen sessions as he progresses in his recovery... Barring any setbacks, Robinson Cano (quad) will be activated from the disabled list on Tuesday.

National League Quick Hits: Alex Wood fired 7 1/3 scoreless innings in a win over the Marlins and now sits at 5-0 with a tremendous 1.88 ERA on the season... Cody Bellinger blasted his eighth home run in that victory... Jake Lamb crushed a pair of homers and drove home five runs as the Diamondbacks routed Jered Weaver and the Padres... Taijuan Walker hurled six shutout frames in a victory there... David Peralta (glute) homered in his return to the D'Backs lineup... Eduardo Nunez delivered a two-run double in the ninth inning on Friday to beat the Cardinals.. Mark Melancon worked a clean ninth inning to protect a one-run lead and earn a save in his first appearance back from the disabled list... Dansby Swanson went 2-for-2 with a homer plus a pair of walks in a victory over the Nationals... Yasiel Puig left Friday's game due to tightness in his back, but he's hopeful that he will be able to return to the lineup on Saturday... Jeremy Hellickson was forced to leave Friday's game with tightness in his back. He said afterwards that his exit was precautionary and that he expects to make his next start... Alexi Amarista homered and plated four in a victory over the Reds... Jacob deGrom fired seven shutout innings to beat the Angels... Michael Conforto provided the support by going 2-for-3 and clubbing his 11th home run... Josh Bell continued his hot-hitting, going 2-for-4 with a double in a loss to the Phillies... Wily Peralta earned a victory in his first appearance out of the bullpen, striking out five over two shutout innings against the Cubs... Kenta Maeda (hamstring) is expected to rejoin the Dodgers' rotation on Thursday... Logan Forsythe is expected to return from the disabled list on Tuesday. He'll primarily play third base initially while Justin Turner is sidelined with his Grade 1 hamstring strain... Anthony DeSclafani (elbow) has been cleared to resume his throwing program... The Brewers still aren't sure if Ryan Braun will return from the disabled list when first eligible on Sunday... Eric Thames (illness) singled and walked twice in his return to the Brewers' lineup... Jason Heyward will be activated from the disabled list on Saturday.

Fantasy Baseball

Pitchers 

We only have two decent looking options tomorrow. I'll also offer a few stretch scenarios for ultra-deep leagues and the truly desperate.

J.C. Ramirez is the top guy on the wire. At 17 percent owned, he's widely available too. The righty has abandoned his four seam fastball in favor of a sinker. The new fastball is still a well below average offering, but it's also much better than the four seamer. His success can be tied to a sharp increase in slider usage – from 25 to 40 percent. He's also throwing a new curve ball. Tally it all up and he went from 73 percent to 43 percent fastballs. Ramirez has maintained a healthy 2.27 BB/9 despite the sharp uptick in breaking balls. He has a tough matchup against the Rays. They have the second best offense versus right-handed pitching.

Mike Foltynewicz is 13 percent owned. He'll face a feeble Pirates offense. Foltynewicz has a similar statistical profile to Ramirez even if he arrives there via a completely different process. He's been steadily regaining velocity. Folty once again looks like the solid starter from 2016. There are still a few flies in the ointment. He remains slightly homer prone, and his strikeouts are down. If Ramirez is option 1a, then Foltynewicz is 1b.

If you're just hunting for ratio help, you may consider Brad Peacock. The Astros righty is off to a hot start in the bullpen – 1.10 ERA with 12.12 K/9, 5.51 BB/9, no home runs, and a .212 BABIP. A deep delve into his peripherals reveals no change in his velocity, pitch usage, or command. They're exactly the same as in the past (4.37 career ERA). The big difference is a fluky looking 36.4 percent soft contact rate paired with a tiny 9.1 percent line drive rate. If you think he'll mostly maintain the weird batted ball profile, he's worth trying versus the Tigers.

Those hunting for warm bodies could try either end of the Josh Tomlin versus Scott Feldman matchup at Great American Ballpark. Since Tomlin can be homer prone, I prefer the Feldman end of the pairing. He's an uninspiring option despite four quality starts and a complete game in nine outings. He also has four brutal meltdowns to his name. High risk, medium reward.

Pitchers to Abuse

Let's talk more about Tomlin here. By dropping his arm angle, Tomlin has converted into a ground ball pitcher. Even though he continues to suffer from an elevated HR/FB ratio, the increase in ground balls has brought him down to a tolerable 1.33 HR/9. Unfortunately, he may have partially solved one weakness at the expense of his greatest strength – an ability to limit hits on balls in play. His .364 BABIP this season is a sharp reversal from his career .281 BABIP. The increase in hard grounders may be to blame. Tomlin continues to post one of the lowest walk rates in the league. Perhaps the next step in his growth as a pitcher is to work outside of the strike zone more often.

Assuming Baltimore isn't rained out, the battle between Adam Wilk and Ubaldo Jimenez may be a race to the bottom. Wilk is a soft tossing lefty who lacks major league stuff. He's nothing more than a spot starter. Meanwhile, the Orioles may be leading the AL East, but it's not because of Jimenez. He has a luck neutral 6.52 ERA with dreadful command. It's about time for Baltimore to scavenge up a replacement.

Ty Blach is another soft tossing lefty whose stuff doesn't quite cut it. Unlike Wilk, Blach is probably just good enough to remain in a major league rotation. He'll need to develop a better breaking ball for his fastball-changeup heavy repertoire to become fantasy relevant.

Other exploits include Feldman and Jeff Hoffman. To my eye, the Rockies prospect has years of adjustment ahead of him before he's a true stud. In reality, adjustments are chunky. He may suddenly mature or never reach his projected peak. As for tomorrow, I'll happily pile up some Phillies.

Hitters: Power

The first Phillie on my list is Tommy Joseph. The fly ball masher has quietly climbed out of the gutter. Since the start of May, he's slashing .352/.429/.741 with five of his six home runs. Joseph is always going to be a streaky hitter, and he certainly won't maintain a .389 BABIP. When he's running hot, he bats cleanup for the Phillies squad. He's out there for the taking in 78 percent of leagues.

Ian Happ is less widely available, but he's still on the wire in 62 percent of leagues. The Cubs top prospect has useful 2B/OF eligibility on Yahoo, and he's batting cleanup most days. Chicago originally called up Happ to cover for a flood of injuries. Everybody is back in the lineup now which means Happ needs to mash to stay on the roster.

So far, so good. He's hitting .333/.462/.714 with a couple home runs and doubles through 26 plate appearances. He also has a strong 19.1 percent walk rate to go with 23.1 percent strikeouts. Oddly, his 19.6 percent swinging strike rate practically makes Joey Gallo look like a contact hitter (that's called hyperbole). Something's gotta give – either fewer whiffs or more strikeouts. In the short term, use Happ indiscriminately in all leagues. Just be prepared for a demotion.

Orioles slugger Trey Mancini is only 14 percent owned. He regularly starts versus bad left-handed pitchers like Wilk. Mancini has actually played his way into every day duty. His results have lagged since the promotion to regular work. He's homerless in his last 33 plate appearances. It's a sign that the scouting report may be catching up. Even so, don't let this dissuade you from using him tomorrow.

The rest of the options all share one trait – their matchup isn't bad. Or good. That includes Luis Valbuena versus Jake Odorizzi and Scott Schebler against Tomlin. In both cases, the batted ball profiles favor the pitchers – just not enough to scare me off from giving them a try. Logan Morrison's pairing with Ramirez is better, assuming he can jump on one of those crappy sinkers.

Kennys Vargas and Max Kepler could do some damage versus Jimenez. Camden Yards massively buffs left-handed power numbers. David Peralta and Brandon Drury are decent alternatives against .

Hitters: Speed

I have just three speedsters to offer tomorrow. Two of may be better bets for power while the third doesn't run all that often. Like Happ, Bradley Zimmer is probably only up for as long as he mashes. Through 14 plate appearances, the results have been mixed. It's nice to see a home run and a 14.3 percent walk rate but not when combined with a 50 percent strikeout rate. He stole his first base on Saturday. Between contact oriented Scott Feldman and GABP, there's a chance for Zimmer to go wild. He's available in 78 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Freddy Galvis may have supplanted Odubel Herrera as the Phillies second hitter. If so, he'll be a solid source of run production sandwiched between Cesar Hernandez and Aaron Altherr. Galvis is one of those defense-first shortstops who has slowly eked out gains at the plate. Sometimes these guys suddenly turn into Yadier Molina or Zack Cozart for a brief time. Galvis doesn't really belong at the top of a lineup. Despite solid power and speed, he has just a .297 OBP in what's shaping up as a career year at the plate. A thin schedule plus a good role making him relevant on Monday.

Last up is Joey Rickard. He bats leadoff when the Orioles face a lefty. The former Rule 5 pick is off to a miserable start at the dish, slashing .232/.259/.339. Despite the low OBP, he has stolen three bases in 58 plate appearances. He has slightly better numbers versus southpaws. Rickard is clearly trying to hit more fly balls. It's also clearly not working.

Blue Jays bury Braves

Baseball is full of beefs. Half of them involve Jose Bautista.

As you’d expect, Bautista was front and center Wednesday when things got heated between the Braves and Blue Jays. The first domino fell in the seventh inning when Blue Jays outfielder Kevin Pillar took exception to a quick pitch from Braves reliever Jason Motte. Pillar’s derogatory comment, later revealed to be a homophobic slur, emptied the benches.

An inning later Bautista took Eric O’Flaherty deep for a home run and went out of his way to admire it, even with Toronto still trailing by four runs. Bautista shared words with first baseman Jace Peterson and catcher Kurt Suzuki on his tour around the bases and soon the benches emptied for a second time. The drama continued after the game as Pillar apologized for his gay slur (the Blue Jays responded by suspending him for two games) while O’Flaherty chided Bautista in his post-game interview. “Guy wants to hit a home run in a five-run game, pimp it, throw the bat around,” he said. “It’s just tired. We’ve seen it from him enough.”

The Harvey Dent quote, “You either die a hero or you live long enough to see yourself become the villain” is a perfect summary of Bautista’s career to this point. Think of how Bautista’s reputation has evolved over the years. It may seem like forever ago but there was a time when Bautista was actually a fan favorite. Back then Bautista was just a journeyman with a drawn-on beard who woke up one day and suddenly became the best home run hitter in all of baseball.

But the “aw shucks” factor evaporated quickly. As Bautista’s home run totals shrank, his ego grew. He demanded ludicrous sums of money for his increasingly lackluster work, made enemies with the Orioles and even scrapped with Rougned Odor in one of the more iconic baseball brawls of all-time. Controversy swirled with each bat flip, tensions rising every time he took a little too long to round the bases. Soon the transformation was complete—Bautista had become baseball’s arch-villain.

In the grand scheme of things, Bautista is no worse than other abrasive athletes like Draymond Green and Odell Beckham. Sure he’s cocky and you kind of want to sock him one (Odor did just that), but ultimately it’s just a persona. Even the jovial David Ortiz, Boston's bling-wearing former DH, had a little villain in him if you searched for it. When confronted with an agitator like Bautista, you really have two choices—ignore what he’s doing and go on about your business or feed into his mind games by giving it right back to him. Care to guess which option Julio Teheran went for on Thursday night?

Teheran went with retaliation, plunking Bautista on the second pitch of his first at-bat. Rather than escalate things, Bautista took his medicine and jogged to first base. Teheran’s intention was clear—he just missed Bautista’s thigh on the first pitch before drilling him on his second attempt. That pitch was clocked at 95.6 mph, Teheran’s fastest recorded throw since 2015. Teheran could easily have been ejected but instead home plate umpire Paul Emmel issued warnings to both dugouts.



I’ve never been a fan of baseball’s unwritten rules, a doctrine Teheran was clearly following when he hit Bautista. But it’s not for the reason you might think. I’ll offer that hitting someone with a 96 mph pitch is a pretty incongruent way to avenge a bat flip, but my real problem with what Teheran did is that he put a runner on base. After giving Bautista a bruise and a free pass to first, Teheran allowed three straight hits including back-to-back doubles by Darrell Ceciliani and Chris Coghlan. By the time the inning was over the Blue Jays had already built a 3-0 lead. Whether Toronto used it as a rallying cry or if the three runs would have happened anyway, Teheran’s decision to hit Bautista obviously did not achieve the desired result.

The onslaught continued with Teheran serving up three more runs in the third and another three in the fourth before mercifully getting the hook from manager Brian Snitker. Even Toronto’s starting pitcher, Marcus Stroman, got into the act by slugging his first career homer. Bautista also chipped in with two hits including a leadoff double to begin the third inning. The Jays jumped out to a 9-0 lead and held on to win by that exact score. The end result was one of the worst outings of Teheran’s seven-year career. Thursday’s debacle raised his ERA from 4.08 to a hideous 5.47. Fantasy owners were obviously hoping for better after Teheran posted a commendable 3.21 ERA last year while earning his second All-Star nod.

Teheran’s letdown certainly influenced Thursday’s result but let’s not discount the impact of Stroman. The right-hander was far from perfect—he scattered seven hits over 5 2/3 innings—but only one of those hits went for extra bases and the Braves were unable to score against him. Stroman showed breakout potential while emerging as a national hero during the World Baseball Classic. The innings he logged during the WBC could come back to bite him later on—countless players skipped the tournament for fear of the fatigue it might cause. But so far Stroman has been as good as advertised, compiling a 4-2 record with a steady 3.00 ERA over his first nine starts. He’s been especially hot over his last three, going 2-0 with a 1.02 ERA during that span. Stroman’s WHIP (1.39) and BAA (.291) are a work in progress, but those rough edges will get smoothed out at some point.

Darrell Ceciliani a recent call-up from Triple-A Buffalo, earned the start in center field Thursday with Pillar beginning his two-game suspension. His night was memorable for reasons both good and bad. Ceciliani swatted a home run, the second of his career, but seemed to injure himself in the process. At first it looked like Ceciliani might have been imitating Edwin Encarnacion’s patented “parrot on the shoulder” act, but soon it became clear that he was actually in pain. The Blue Jays are saying he may have suffered a dislocated shoulder but an official diagnosis won’t be made until he undergoes more tests.

The Braves have won five of seven, but losing Freddie Freeman to a broken wrist has taken the wind out of their sails. Even the most optimistic timetable calls for Freeman to miss at least eight weeks and it could be as many as 12. Atlanta acted quickly by signing James Loney to a minor league deal on Thursday. Loney is known for his superior glove-work and has been a decent contact hitter throughout his career, batting .284 across 5,023 major league at-bats. He could eventually land in a platoon with Jace Peterson at first base, though after failing to make the Rangers out of spring training and struggling during a minor league stint with Detroit, Loney is a definite gamble. The Braves already rolled the dice with Ryan Howard this year before pulling the plug on that experiment after only a few weeks.

The absence of Sean Rodriguez, who was lost to season-ending shoulder surgery after getting hurt in a car accident, looms even larger now that Freeman is out for the foreseeable future. Rodriguez was a quiet savior for Atlanta last year, clubbing 18 homers while playing solid defense all over the diamond. Having Rodriguez at their disposal would have saved the Braves from indulging in tapped-out veterans like Loney and Howard, but no team is immune to injuries. Now it’s on the Braves to fight back.

AL Quick Hits: Jose Berrios was remarkable in Thursday’s win over Colorado. He allowed just two hits (both singles) while recording a career-high 11 strikeouts over 7 2/3 scoreless innings. The 22-year-old is 2-0 with a 0.59 ERA in two starts since getting called up from Triple-A Rochester … Doug Fister’s deal with the Angels became official when he passed his physical on Thursday. He’ll head to the minor leagues for a couple tune-up outings before joining the Angels’ starting rotation early next month … Yonder Alonso sat out Thursday’s game after injuring his knee Wednesday against Seattle. Alonso is still waiting for his MRI results but doesn’t anticipate missing more than a handful of games … Mitch Haniger is expected to begin a minor league rehab assignment this weekend. He’s been sidelined with a strained oblique since late April ... Manny Machado sat out Thursday’s series finale against Detroit due to a sore right index finger. Ryan Flaherty filled in for him at third base and went 1-for-4 in the Orioles’ 6-5 loss … The Tigers were also playing shorthanded on Thursday. They were without Miguel Cabrera, who was diagnosed with a strained oblique earlier this week. The Tigers are optimistic the injury will only cost him a few games … Brad Miller suffered a lower abdomen strain earlier this week and wasn’t improving, so the Rays placed him on the 10-day disabled list. Miller enjoyed a breakout season with 30 homers last year but has only homered twice in 2017 … Corey Kluber (back) made it through a 40-pitch bullpen session on Wednesday and will follow that up with a simulated game on Saturday. The next step after that will be a minor league rehab assignment.

Eric Sogard reached base five times with four hits and a walk Thursday in a win over the Padres. He’s hit a ridiculous .588 with two homers and seven RBI since his call-up last week … Eric Thames (strep throat) didn’t start Thursday’s game against the Padres but appeared as a pinch-hitter in the seventh inning. Brewers manager Craig Counsell confirmed that Thames will return to the starting lineup Friday against the Cubs … After a brief stint in the minor leagues, promising rookie Amir Garrett returned to the mound Thursday at Wrigley Field. Garrett looked rusty, allowing six runs (four of which came on a grand slam by Cubs second baseman Javier Baez) in only four innings. The slumping Reds have now lost six straight … The Dodgers are finally getting healthy. Adrian Gonzalez returned from the disabled list Thursday after missing two weeks with an elbow injury. Meanwhile Kenta Maeda (hamstring), who is slated to throw four innings in a rehab start for High-A Rancho Cucamonga on Friday, is due back on Wednesday or Thursday of next week. Logan Forsythe, out for the past month with a broken toe, is also nearing the end of his rehab assignment. He could be back in L.A. as early as Sunday … Steven Matz (elbow) and Travis d’Arnaud (wrist) both began rehab assignments for High-A St. Lucie on Thursday. D’Arnaud is expected back early next week and Matz shouldn’t be far behind him.

Zimmer gets a call up

Indians purchased the contract of OF Bradley Zimmer from Triple-A Columbus.

He'll join the big club with Abraham Almonte (biceps) hitting the disabled list. Zimmer, arguably the Indians' top prospect, was hitting .294/.371/.532 with five homers and nine steals through 33

games this season in Triple-A. Strikeouts are still an issue for him, but his blend of pop and speed makes him worth adding outside of shallow mixed fantasy leagues