Hot hitting

You should always have the big picture in mind when it comes to your season-long fantasy baseball leagues. Putting too much stock in a small sample size might cause you to make a decision that hurts you in the long run. That said, it doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be taking stock of what’s happened in the immediate past. It can be useful when it comes to weekly or especially daily lineup decisions, waiver wire considerations, tracking who might be coming into more playing time, etc.


The following data is based on 5x5 Roto scoring and covers games played from July 3-July 9.

Catcher

Rank	Player	Tm	Pos	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	R	VAL
#1	Russell Martin	TOR	C	1.50979	0.30260	-0.40089	1.58814	2.27336	5.27
#2	Evan Gattis	HOU	C	1.50979	2.03801	-0.40089	0.79196	1.27937	5.22
#3	J.T. Realmuto	MIA	C	0.38219	-0.13125	1.08989	2.26997	0.78238	4.39
#4	Salvador Perez	KC	C	1.50979	1.60416	-0.40089	0.33460	-0.21160	2.84
#5	Francisco Cervelli	PIT	C	0.38219	1.60416	-0.40089	-0.00562	0.28539	1.87
#6	Austin Hedges	SD	C	1.50979	0.73646	-0.40089	-0.11855	-0.21160	1.52
#7	Kurt Suzuki	ATL	C	0.38219	0.30260	-0.40089	0.68043	0.28539	1.25
#8	Stephen Vogt	MLW	C	1.50979	0.30260	-0.40089	-0.34583	-0.21160	.85
#9	Wilson Ramos	TB	C	0.38219	0.73646	-0.40089	0.22307	-0.21160	.73
#10	Nick Hundley	SF	C	0.38219	-0.13125	-0.40089	0.90771	-0.21160	.55

Russell Martin appears pretty locked into the No. 2 spot in the Blue Jays’ batting order at this point, which is a great spot to be even though their offense is under performing as a whole. Martin isn’t going to hit for average and he’s somehow managed to drive in only 19 runs so far, but he’s still among the best at the position as far as on-base percentage goes and is on a nearly 20-homer pace again … Evan Gattis has had an interesting season. If you drafted him, you did so for his power and were just going to accept his other shortcomings. While he has slugged three dingers already in July, he’s certainly been a disappointment so far in the power department overall. However, Gattis’ strikeout rate has plummeted to 13.9 percent, which is a huge drop from last year’s 25.5 percent mark and his career 21.6 percent rate. Unsurprisingly, more contact has led to a much better average (.284). Fantasy owners would like to see a blend of the two, and Gattis has started to give it to them of late with a .348 average and four homers in his last 11 games … J.T. Realmuto continues to be one of the more underrated catchers in the game (with apologies to Yadier Molina, he should be in the All-Star Game). The 26-year-old has been playing some of his best ball heading into the break, hitting .441/.457/.588 with one homer and one steal over his last seven games. Realmuto isn’t going to overwhelm you with counting stats, but he’s the best bet at the position other than Buster Posey for average and he also chips in with some stolen bases …

First Base

Rank	Player	Tm	Pos	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	R	VAL
#1	Freddie Freeman	ATL	1B	1.50979	2.47187	-0.40089	1.58674	1.77637	6.94
#2	Joey Votto	CIN	1B	2.63739	2.90572	-0.40089	0.44753	1.27937	6.87
#3	Jesus Aguilar	MLW	1B	1.50979	2.90572	-0.40089	1.24792	0.78238	6.04
#4	Luke Voit	STL	1B	2.63739	2.47187	-0.40089	0.44613	0.78238	5.94
#5	Yonder Alonso	OAK	1B	2.63739	1.17031	-0.40089	-0.23711	1.77637	4.95
#6	Justin Bour	MIA	1B	1.50979	1.60416	-0.40089	0.90209	0.78238	4.40
#7	Josh Bell	PIT	1B	0.38219	1.60416	-0.40089	1.01643	1.77637	4.38
#8	Eric Hosmer	KC	1B	0.38219	0.73646	-0.40089	2.27138	1.27937	4.27
#9	Eric Thames	MLW	1B	1.50979	-0.13125	-0.40089	0.56468	1.27937	2.82
#10	Yulieski Gurriel	HOU	1B	0.38219	1.17031	-0.40089	1.13218	0.28539	2.57

Those who might be worried how Freddie Freeman would look at the plate after coming back from a fractured wrist, worry no more. Freeman missed seven weeks of action and played only two rehab games, but I think the great John Schuerholz quote on George Brett applies to Freeman in that he “could roll out of bed on Christmas morning and hit a line drive.” The Braves’ first baseman is 10-for-26 (.385) with a couple homers and eight RBI over six contests since returning to action … I’ve gotten a lot of questions the last few days about whether to pick up Jesus Aguilar in a standard mixed league. It’s true that he’s been very productive for the upstart Brewers while Eric Thames has leveled off after a brilliant start. However, Aguilar still looks to be on the short side of a platoon and I think the Brew Crew would be best served to continue using him how they have been and not overexpose him. Yes, six of Aguilar’s nine longballs have come off of righties, but he’s hitting just .255 with a .325 OBP against them, whereas he’s sporting a blistering .367/.418/.617 line versus lefties … Luke Voit has been a cool story with the Cardinals as a late-round draft pick who is from St. Louis and went to a local college and has now made it up to the majors and is producing. The hulking slugger has popped three homers and driven in eight over his last seven games, as he’s been drawing regular starts at first base while the Cards shift Matt Carpenter over to second. Voit is 26 and has never been considered much of a prospect, but he’s hit really well the last couple seasons in the minors and it’s encouraging that his strikeout rate in the majors so far is just 17.1 percent (it was 17.8 percent in the minors, as he makes a lot of contact for a guy whose best attribute is his power). It’s hard to envision everyday at-bats for Voit once Kolten Wong (triceps) returns after the All-Star break, but perhaps St. Louis can clear room with a trade …

Second Base

Rank	Player	Tm	Pos	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	R	VAL
#1	Jose Altuve	HOU	2B	1.50979	3.33957	2.58067	4.09064	3.26735	14.79
#2	Scooter Gennett	CIN	2B	2.63739	1.17031	1.08989	1.35879	1.77637	8.03
#3	Paul DeJong	STL	2B	2.63739	0.73646	-0.40089	2.72392	2.27336	7.97
#4	Dee Gordon	MIA	2B	-0.74541	-0.99895	4.07145	2.03660	3.26735	7.63
#5	Rougned Odor	TEX	2B	2.63739	1.17031	-0.40089	0.67464	2.27336	6.35
#6	Dustin Pedroia	BOS	2B	1.50979	2.90572	-0.40089	1.46832	0.28539	5.77
#7	Whit Merrifield	KC	2B	0.38219	-0.13125	4.07145	-0.23809	0.78238	4.87
#8	Daniel Murphy	WAS	2B	-0.74541	2.90572	-0.40089	1.92707	0.28539	3.97
#9	Jonathan Schoop	BAL	2B	1.50979	0.30260	-0.40089	0.78576	0.78238	2.98
#10	DJ LeMahieu	COL	2B	0.38219	0.30260	-0.40089	0.90480	0.78238	1.97

Paul DeJong is listed at second base here because that’s still where he’s played the most this season, but he looks to have settled in as the Cardinals’ regular shortstop following Aledmys Diaz’s demotion to the minors. DeJong had a series for the ages against the Mets over the weekend, going 9-for-12 with three home runs and four doubles as the Cards took two of three. The former fourth-round pick now has nine taters over his first 133 plate appearances in the big leagues. DeJong’s power is for real, as he smashed 22 homers last season and has already matched that total this year between the majors and minors. However, he’s also sporting a 38/4 K/BB ratio in the majors and had a rather pedestrian .267/.289/.474 line prior to his exploits over the weekend. I think DeJong could continue to be useful in deep leagues with his pop and multi-position eligibility, and he looks to have some leash with Diaz struggling at Triple-A (.510 OPS), but there will definitely be some rough patches … Rougned Odor was in a 3-for-37 stretch late last month which dropped his season batting line to an ugly .205/.244/.371. It was looking like the Rangers might be best served in sending him to the minors for a bit to clear his head. However, the fiery second baseman has since reeled off an 11-game stretch where he’s batting .333/.381/.744 with five home runs, nine RBI and two stolen bases.  Odor’s .220 average isn’t going to help you win any fantasy league titles, but he enters the All-Star break on pace for 31 homers, 74 RBI, 87 runs and 17 steals. You’d probably have signed up for that before the season … DJ LeMahieu’s average was sitting at .275 after a June 9 game against the Cubs. Since then he’s batted a robust .391/.424/.457 over his last 23 contests to push his batting mark to .307 heading into the All-Star break. LeMahieu has just four dingers and four thefts at the break, and his 47 runs is relatively disappointing for a guy who’s predominantly hit second for the Rockies. That said, I fully expect the runs and the average to be there in the end, and those are often the two categories that are overlooked by fantasy owners obsessed with finding the sexy power/speed guy …

Third Base

Rank	Player	Tm	Pos	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	R	VAL
#1	Travis Shaw	MLW	3B	1.50979	1.60416	-0.40089	1.36086	2.77035	6.84
#2	Jose Ramirez	CLE	3B	1.50979	1.60416	1.08989	1.92976	0.28539	6.42
#3	Alex Bregman	HOU	3B	-0.74541	-0.56510	2.58067	1.47380	3.26735	6.01
#4	Kris Bryant	CHC	3B	1.50979	1.60416	-0.40089	1.01924	2.27336	6.01
#5	Nolan Arenado	COL	3B	1.50979	2.47187	-0.40089	1.01784	0.78238	5.38
#6	Manny Machado	BAL	3B	1.50979	1.60416	-0.40089	1.47099	0.78238	4.97
#7	Mike Moustakas	KC	3B	2.63739	1.17031	-0.40089	0.22026	1.27937	4.91
#8	Justin Turner	LA	3B	2.63739	1.60416	-0.40089	0.45034	0.28539	4.58
#9	Adrian Beltre	TEX	3B	1.50979	1.17031	-0.40089	0.79056	1.27937	4.35
#10	Jedd Gyorko	STL	3B	0.38219	1.17031	1.08989	0.90630	0.28539	3.83

Travis Shaw just keeps chugging along. The All-Star snub drove in four of the Brewers’ five runs in their win Sunday over the Yankees and has put up a 1.326 OPS with five longballs and 14 RBI across his last 12 contests. Shaw has actually bucked the trend this season and has been hitting way fewer flyballs, but he’s still got a 30+ homer pace thanks in part to his hitter-friendly environment (although he’s actually hit more homers on the road). The 27-year-old’s .333 BABIP points to some batting average regression, but with his hard-hit rate way up and both his walk and strikeout rates slightly improved, I don’t think Shaw’s average will be falling off a cliff. You think the Red Sox want to undo that trade? … We’re still waiting for Alex Bregman to string together a sustained run, but he did have a 9-for-23 (.391) week that included nine runs and a pair of stolen bases. He’s still hitting just .256, and his 27 RBI is an embarrassing total for a guy that’s part of an offensive juggernaut (even if he’s stuck in the No. 8 spot). But, Bregman is at least entering the break on a 15-homer, 15-steal pace, so I guess it could be worse? … Mike Moustakas entered July just one home run shy of a new career high, and he’s easily surpassed that total now after clubbing four bombs over his first seven games this month. “Moose” is walking less than ever (4.6 percent), but he continues to have an excellent contact rate for a power hitter (17 percent whiff rate) and his 46.9 percent flyball rate is his best mark since his first full season back in 2012 … Moustakas’ fellow Final Vote winner, Justin Turner, is not only hitting a blistering .377, he’s also really upped his power production of late with eight blasts over his last 19 games. Of players with at least 250 plate appearances, only Turner, Joey Votto, Anthony Rizzo, Anthony Rendon, Mookie Betts and Dustin Pedroia have accumulated more walks than strikeouts …

Shortstops

Rank	Player	Tm	Pos	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	R	VAL
#1	Carlos Correa	HOU	SS	2.63739	2.03801	-0.40089	1.47520	1.77637	7.53
#2	Freddy Galvis	PHI	SS	2.63739	1.60416	1.08989	0.10451	0.78238	6.22
#3	Jean Segura	SEA	SS	0.38219	0.73646	1.08989	2.49725	1.27937	5.99
#4	Pat Valaika	COL	SS	1.50979	2.47187	-0.40089	0.67903	-0.21160	4.05
#5	Troy Tulowitzki	TOR	SS	1.50979	1.17031	-0.40089	1.35946	0.28539	3.92
#6	Brandon Crawford	SF	SS	1.50979	2.03801	-0.40089	-0.69167	0.78238	3.24
#7	Wilmer Difo	WAS	SS	-0.74541	-0.56510	1.08989	2.04691	1.27937	3.11
#8	Francisco Lindor	CLE	SS	-0.74541	1.17031	1.08989	0.56047	0.78238	2.86
#9	Tim Anderson	CWS	SS	1.50979	0.73646	-0.40089	-0.35005	0.78238	2.28
#10	J.T. Riddle	MIA	SS	-0.74541	1.60416	-0.40089	1.47239	0.28539	2.22

Carlos Correa has still yet to even attempt a stolen base this season, which is certainly a bummer for those of you in Roto leagues. I’m going to go out on a limb and guess that his fantasy owners are still pretty pleased with his production, however. Correa has already equaled last season’s home run total of 20, and he heads into the All-Star break on pace for 118 RBI and 113 runs scored. The 22-year-old has a pair of two-homer games over the past two weeks, including one on Sunday as part of a four-hit, five-RBI day … Speaking of two-homer days, Freddy Galvis also had one of those Sunday, putting him at an even 10 bombs for the first half. Galvis has consistently posted poor OBPs, but that hasn’t stopped Phillies manager Pete Mackanin from batting the shortstop second each of the last 17 contests. The 27-year-old continues to be an underrated source of pop and speed at the position and he’s going to score more runs while hitting second even if he shouldn’t be there … A Troy Tulowitzki sighting! All the injuries over the years seem to have caught up with Tulo, as his bat just isn’t nearly as quick as it used to be. He’s certainly still capable of spurts of production, though, especially in the power department. The Toronto shortstop put up a 1.025 OPS over the past week, and five of his seven home runs this season have come over his last 15 games … Since Trea Turner (wrist) went down, Stephen Drew and Wilmer Difo have each received five starts apiece at shortstop for the Nationals. While Drew has gone 3-for-20 with a 7/2 K/BB over that stretch, Difo is 9-for-17 with a 1/7 K/BB ratio and one stolen base. Difo has even batted second a couple times over that stretch. The fantasy appeal here is minimal as long as the two are splitting up playing time, but if Difo continues to trend upward he could have deep league relevance. The 25-year-old can run (although he hasn’t done a ton of it at the major league level so far) …

Outfield

Rank	Player	Tm	Pos	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	R	VAL
#1	George Springer	HOU	OF	2.63739	2.90572	2.58067	3.86654	4.75833	16.75
#2	Giancarlo Stanton	MIA	OF	4.89258	2.47187	-0.40089	1.81401	3.26735	12.04
#3	Charlie Blackmon	COL	OF	2.63739	0.30260	4.07145	1.81401	2.27336	11.10
#4	Tommy Pham	STL	OF	0.38219	2.03801	2.58067	1.81542	1.77637	8.59
#5	Domingo Santana	MLW	OF	0.38219	1.60416	1.08989	2.04270	2.77035	7.89
#6	Billy Hamilton	CIN	OF	-0.74541	0.30260	7.05301	0.21885	0.78238	7.61
#7	Andrew McCutchen	PIT	OF	2.63739	0.30260	-0.40089	2.15563	2.77035	7.47
#8	Marwin Gonzalez	HOU	OF	1.50979	2.47187	1.08989	0.21885	1.27937	6.57
#9	Andrew Benintendi	BOS	OF	1.50979	2.90572	-0.40089	0.90350	1.27937	6.20
#10	Byron Buxton	MIN	OF	0.38219	-0.13125	2.58067	1.47380	1.77637	6.08

The most important numbers Giancarlo Stanton has put up this season are 86 (games) and 369 (plate appearances). He has started 82 of the Marlins’ 87 games so far, and when he stays on the field, the dude swats homers. Stanton’s 26 longballs are tied for the National League lead, and five of them came over the last week as he had a pair of two-homer games. In other words, he’s ready for Monday’s Home Run Derby … Tommy Pham has been consistently aggressive on the bases since his promotion at the beginning of May. It’s led to some mistakes, whether it’s been him getting caught stealing or picked off. But, fantasy owners will take 11 steals over 59 games, especially when it’s coming along with 11 homers and a .299 average. I’d like to see Pham hit the ball in the air more, as his 22.1 percent flyball rate ranks 241^st out of 246 players with at least 200 plate appearances. That said, he’s looking like a legit power/speed threat and appears entrenched in the No. 2 spot in the Cardinals’ batting order in between Matt Carpenter and Dexter Fowler … Domingo Santana seems to get lost in the shuffle sometimes when it comes to the Brewers’ surprise season, but that shouldn’t be the case. The 24-year-old had an ugly .599 OPS with just two home runs over his first 21 games this season, but since then he’s hit .325/.415/.545 with 13 taters, 45 RBI, 45 runs and six steals over 65 games. Santana is hitting .469 so far in July and has batted either second or third in five of his last seven contests. My one gripe with Santana is that, like Pham, he hits a lot of balls on the ground, as his 27.2 percent flyball rate ranks 152^nd among 165 qualifiers and matches his career rate … We haven’t seen Byron Buxton really even flirt with this list much, let alone appear on it, so I should probably highlight him when I can. Buxton went 9-for-19 (.474) with a home run and two stolen bases over his last five games. Unfortunately, that nice little run was preceded by a 4-for-37 (.108) stretch. Buxton has only been caught once in 17 stolen base attempts this season and would be a threat to lead the league in steals if he could get on base enough, but that just hasn’t happened …

Suprises in the first half

It's the annual MLB All-Star break, a good time to do some looking behind and looking ahead in real-life and fantasy baseball terms. Give me a player who surprised you in the first half of the 2017 campaign, and do you expect that player's fantasy production to continue into the second half?

I’ll say Angels closer Bud Norris, who grabbed the ninth-inning job after Cam Bedrosian went down with a groin injury in late April and has held on through Bedrosian’s return. Huston Street (groin) is due back from the disabled list after the All-Star break, but he won’t be a challenger to Norris either.

Norris earned his 13th save Sunday in the Angels’ first-half finale against the Rangers, striking out one batter in a spotless frame. For the season, the 32-year-old right-hander boasts a 2.23 ERA, 1.046 WHIP, and 47/14 K/BB ratio in 36 1/3 innings. A full-time reliever for the first time in his career, he’s registered a personal-best strikeout rate on the back of a personal-best average fastball velocity of 94.2 mph.

The big worry for Norris’ fantasy owners is that he will be traded ahead of the July 31 deadline, into a setup role on a contending team. He is an impending free agent and the Angels are two games under .500 with no chance of catching the Astros in the American League West standings and only an outside shot at a Wild Card berth. Norris may very well be pitching himself out of Anaheim, and out of fantasy prominence. It’s something that hangs over many closers on non-contending clubs as front offices prepare for the wheeling-and-dealing phase of the regular season.

 Alex Wood wasn’t even a sure thing to begin the season in the Dodgers’ starting rotation, but he was one of the best pitchers in the major leagues during the first half. In addition to his 10-0 record — hey, pitcher wins matter in the fantasy game — he’s sporting a 1.67 ERA and 97/22 K/BB ratio over 80 2/3 innings. That makes him the No. 4 ranked pitcher in Yahoo leagues behind only Max Scherzer, teammate Clayton Kershaw, and Chris Sale. Elite of the elite with that group.

Wood has been a useful fantasy pitcher in the past. The 26-year-old southpaw posted a 3.35 ERA (111 ERA+) in 77 starts and 35 relief appearances between 2013-2016. But he has taken things to a new level this year thanks to an uptick in velocity and a shift in his pitch mix. Previously averaging around right around 90 mph with his fastball, he has checked in at 92.5 mph on the pitch this year while relying more on his changeup. It’s hard to argue with the results. Not only is he blowing his previous swinging strike percentage out of the water, but his ground ball percentage is among the highest in the game.

The advanced metrics are backing up what Wood is doing, as he’s tops in the majors (min. 80 IP) in both FIP (2.03) and xFIP (2.57). Meanwhile, he ranks third in SIERA (2.81) behind only Sale and Scherzer. It’s unfair to expect him to maintain a sub-2.00 ERA, but there’s nothing to suggest what he’s doing is a fluke. The only thing that could hold him back is himself. Wood had a brief stint on the disabled list during the first half due to left SC joint inflammation and he dealt with an elbow issue last year. So my concerns are more health-based than performance-based.

 I had pretty much written Jimmy Nelson off for fantasy purposes coming into this season. He's a former top-100 prospect who had shown us spurts of mixed league viability in the past, but the righty had been a headache more often than not with a career 4.38 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 353/75 K/BB ratio over 436 innings coming into 2017. He managed to lead all pitchers with 86 walks last season even though he ranked just 50th with his 179 1/3 innings.

Something seems to have clicked with Nelson this season, though. While many starters' performances have gone in the wrong direction, Nelson has pitched the best ball of his career with a 3.30 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 118/27 K/BB ratio across 109 frames. He boasts a 2.58 ERA and 95/17 K/BB ratio over 80 1/3 innings since the start of May, and he has four 10+ strikeout games over that stretch. A changed arm slot that's led to better breaking balls seems to be a big driver of Nelson's success, as our pals Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris touched on in a recent podcast for Fan Graphs. Nelson has slashed his walk rate and bumped his strikeout rate up significantly, all the while continuing to induce grounders at a near-50 percent clip. He's also held left-handed batters to a sub-.700 OPS, which is huge since they've often tormented him in the past.

I have a tough time fully buying into Nelson's improved control given how wild he's been in the past, and any regression there could lead to trouble when you're calling Miller Park home. That said, I'm comfortable in projecting Nelson to continue being a mixed league asset after the break even if the walk rate comes up a bit.

 With Aaron Judge starring in both the Home Run Derby and the All-Star Game this week, it can be easy to forget just how poor of an initial impression the slugger made after being called up last August. The hulking outfielder homered in his first big league at-bat before proceeding to fall flat on his face as his first go-around with the Yankees progressed. Notably, Judge hit just .179 while striking out 42 times in 84 at-bats. He was readily available -- and for good reason -- in the back ends of fantasy drafts this spring. Indeed, he looked so unprepared to face major league pitching in 2016 that following a nice showing in spring training, the Yankees still seriously considered starting him out in Triple-A. Good decision by Brian Cashman to take the plunge.

Judge raced out to a .303/.411/.750 slash line for the month of April, a month in which he clocked 10 homers and drove in 20 runs. He has not slowed since. That .303 mark is his lowest average in any month this season. Heading into the All-Star break, he has driven in 66 runs while slashing ..329/.448/.691. He leads the majors in home runs (30), WAR (5.3) and his 208 total bases are second only to Colorado's Charlie Blackmon. After walking just nine times in 84 at-bats last year, he has drawn a whopping 61 free passes in 301 at-bats during the current campaign. The White Sox walked him intentionally with nobody on base during a June game. Things have escalated to that level.

Even with all of the terrifying offensive statistics to his name, though, some regression is almost certain on the average front given his .426 BABIP. He is also on pace to strike out more than 200 times. Despite the remaining holes in his swing -- he can be beat on good fastballs up in the zone -- Judge has yet to hit any sort of a sustained slump this year. It will be fascinating to see how he adjusts when he falls on hard times. Which will presumably happen, eventually, but even if he does find himself in a prolonged rut, I fully expect him to be in the MVP conversation come September.

 It's easy to say now, but coming into the season I was a believer in the Brewers offense. We knew about Ryan Braun and Jonathan Villar (although Villar has arguably been one of the season's biggest disappointments thus far), but guys like Keon Broxton, Eric Thames and Travis Shaw (I had Shaw at No. 18 in our position rankings; he didn't make the consensus top 20, unfortunately, so you'll just have to trust me) held intrigue for me as well.

Domingo Santana was among those of interest, and in the season's first half he proved to be the Brewers outfielder to own. After a 2016 season cut short by injury, the 24-year-old is hitting .291/.384/.497 with 15 homers, 50 RBI, 54 runs scored and nine steals at the break. His .372 BABIP and his propensity for striking out (26.9 K% this year, and 31.4% for his career) say he's likely going to hit somewhere closer to .260 when it's all said and done, but nothing else in his batting profile screams regression. He's just hitting the ball hard and he's being rewarded for it, and his fantasy owners are, too.

 I think Yonder Alonso wears the crown for the biggest "out of nowhere" breakout. This is a guy who was a complete fantasy dud for the first seven years of his career. His career high for homers in a season was nine, and he had only 39 longballs in 664 career games. His career high for runs scored in a season was 52 and his career high for RBI was 62. Coming into this season his career slash line was .269/.334/.387. He was a decent contact hitter with very little power. He was definitely NOT the sort of first baseman that could help his fantasy owners win championships.

All that has changed this year. So far he has a .275/.372/.562 triple slash with 20 home runs, 46 runs scored and 43 RBI in 79 games. He's already more than doubled his career high in homers and if he keeps up this pace he could hit more home runs in 2017 than in his entire previous career combined. He is on pace to hit 36 home runs with 84 runs and 78 RBI, which would blow away all his career highs.

Can he keep it up? His .302 BABIP this season matches his .301 career BABIP, so we can't write off his newfound success as mere luck. His 13.1% walk rate and 23.2% strikeout rate are both career highs, indicating he is going deeper into counts looking for that one pitch he can crush. His career-high 48.7% fly ball rate shows he is looking to drive the ball in the air. His career-high 21.7% home run per fly ball rate shows he is hitting the ball further than ever before. His career-high 35.4% hard hit rate obviously shows he is hitting the ball hard more often. None of these stats are out of line with what we should expect from a stud power hitter. None of these stats indicate his success is a fluke nor that it is likely to end soon.

He is simply a different hitter than he was before. He has changed his approach at the plate. He now has the mindset of a slugger rather than a contact hitter. He should continue to pile up fantasy stats and guide his savvy owners to the top of the standings.

This year has been chock-full of surprises and I wish I could touch on all of them (Logan Morrison and Jason Vargas both came to mind), but in the interest of brevity I’ll go with Justin Smoak. I mean did any of us see this coming? I sure didn’t. Smoak has shown power in bursts—he slugged 20 jacks for Seattle in 2013—but he’s taken it to a whole ‘nother level this year, swatting a home run every 13 at-bats for the Jays.

But that’s not even what’s impressed me the most. Somehow Smoak is hitting a robust .294 at this juncture, which is over 60 points higher than his career average. It’s pretty rare for a guy to find the light like this so late in their career (Smoak turns 31 in December), but it’s not unheard of. Yonder Alonso has had a similar breakout at age 30, as Nick mentioned earlier.

While I could see Smoak’s average dipping a bit in the second half, I wouldn’t expect too much regression. His contact rate is way up from last year (80.5 percent compared to 72.0 in 2016), which suggests that he’s made real strides both in his plate discipline and timing. He also plays in a hitter-friendly park at Rogers Centre in Toronto and has plenty of lineup protection hitting between Josh Donaldson and Kendrys Morales. I think a .270 average with 35-40 homers and 90 or so ribbies is a pretty fair expectation for Smoak at this point.

 One guy who has come out of nowhere to surprise me in the first half of the season is Angels' shortstop Andrelton Simmons. He was considered an afterthought in fantasy drafts this spring, going off the board as the 36th player at his position behind the likes of Ketel Marte and Gleyber Torres.

Gleyber Torres

In 90 games prior to the All-Star break, Simmons has performed capably as a five-category contributor. The 27-year-old is slashing .290/.341/.438 with nine homers, 41 runs scored, 39 RBI and 13 stolen bases. His counting stats have been boosted by hitting in the middle of a weak Angels' lineup, but that isn't something that is likely to change for the remainder of the season.

While the batting average would represent a career-best mark for Simmons, he's doing it with only a .304 BABIP, so it looks as though it should be sustainable. He also appears to be seeing the ball better, evidenced by his walk rate (7.3%) which is also the best mark of his career.

If there's one thing that may not be sustainable in the second half, it could be the massive power surge that he has experienced this season. Given the rate that balls are flying out of the ballpark around the league though, who knows. Simmons has shown power in the past, slugging 17 homers during his first full season in 2013, though he had hit just 15 total over the next three seasons. While he's hitting the ball in the air a little bit more, his fly ball rate still sits under 30%. His HR/FB rate jumps off the page at 10.6% which is nearly double his career mark and significantly higher than even the 7.9% from his breakthrough 2013 campaign.

While he isn't likely to deliver another 20+ HR/SB in the second half, Simmons has proven to be a valuable asset in mixed leagues and should continue to be a worthwhile option in the middle infield.

All Star memories

 In 1971, they played the ASG in Detroit, and Reggie Jackson took Dock Ellis way deep.

Ray Fosse blocked the plate and got run over by Pete Rose.
That's when the game meant something.

Is the ball juiced ?

Major League Baseball pitchers have spent this season trying to stay cool about it, keeping their angst to themselves, hoping it was nothing more than an anomaly.
Well, with the game's home-run surge only getting more absurd by the day, with more homers being hit now than at any time in baseball history, this proud pitching fraternity can no longer keep quiet.
Commissioner Rob Manfred, the Rawlings baseball manufacturers, and any number of lab techs keep telling us the baseballs haven’t changed this year.
For those making a living throwing these same baseballs, something awfully strange is going on.
“One hundred percent,’’ Boston Red Sox pitcher David Price said. “We have all talked about it.’’
No one is publicly accusing Major League Baseball of secretly juicing the baseballs, and testing is still is assuring that most players aren’t juicing their bodies, but the majority of pitchers interviewed by USA TODAY Sports believe the balls used this season have changed from a year ago.“There's a lot of people unhappy with the baseball, and I’m getting the same feedback,’’ says New York Mets pitching coach Dan Warthen. “You’re seeing guys going opposite field, breaking their bats, and the balls are flying out.
“It’s the balls. They’re throwing harder with it, but they’re getting less movement, so they’re just hanging there.
“There has got to be some investigation.’’

The balls not only are acting differently when hit, the pitchers say, but they simply don’t feel the same as a year ago.
“There’s just something different about the baseballs,’’ Miami Marlins veteran reliever Brad Ziegler said. “I don’t have anything to quantify it, but the balls just don’t feel the same. It just feels different to me, a little harder, tighter than the past.
“I know there’s something legitimate about hitters going after certain launch angles, and changing their approach, but at the same time, you watch guys who have a lot of movement on their pitches, and those balls aren’t moving as much.
“And they’re being hit a long ways.
“Basically, it feels like every park is Colorado.’’
There have been 2,922 homers entering Thursday’s games. At a rate of 2.52 homers per game, MLB is on pace to eclipse 6,000 homers, shattering the all-time high.
That came in the height of baseball's so-called steroid era, when 5,693 homers - 2.34 per game - were hit in the 2000 season.

The Mets couldn’t believe their eyes when they gave up a franchise-record 15 homers in a four-game series to the Dodgers last week. It was the most homers in four games by the Dodgers in franchise history, and the most by any team in the 55-year history of Dodger Stadium. Rookie Cody Bellinger, who leads the National League with 24 homers despite not being called up until April 25, hit three homers in six at-bats against the Mets.
“I’m staying away from my candid thoughts,’’ Tampa Bay Rays ace Chris Archer says, “but I know this for a fact: Triple-A balls travel 30 less feet than the major league ball, with the same exit velocity and launch angle. It’s wound differently in the minor leagues, which has an effect on your breaking ball, the movement of your fastball, with how the ball carries off the bat. …
“Bellinger, he didn’t showcase this kind of power (in the minor leagues) because a fly ball to the warning track is now a homer.’’
Bellinger averaged a home run every 15.4 at-bats over his final 554 minor league at-bats. Since his April 25 debut, Bellinger is hitting a home run every 9.3 at-bats in the big leagues.
Major League Baseball insists its baseballs are no different than a year ago, and while acknowledging fan surveys that show the popularity of home runs, Manfred scoffs at the conspiracy theories.
“As a quality control effort,’’ MLB said in a statement to USA TODAY Sports, “we routinely conduct in-season and off-season testing of baseballs in conjunction with our consultants at UMass-Lowell to ensure that they meet our specifications. All recent test results have been within the specifications.
“In addition, we used a third-party consultant (Alan Nathan) to test whether the baseball had any impact on offense in recent years, and he found no evidence of that.’’
It contradicts studies by The Ringer which discovered that baseballs - since roughly the 2015 All-Star break -  have become smaller with lower seams, resulting in the power surge.
“The seams are different and the balls are a lot harder,’’ Mets manager Terry Collins said. “I remember on Father’s Day, a ball got fouled back into the dugout and Dan Warthen came over and said, “Feel this ball.’
“It was as hard a ball as I’ve ever felt.
“And with these seams different, you’re seeing guys getting more blisters.’’
Price, who has been struggling with blister and cracked nail problems this season, may be Exhibit A.
“Absolutely,’’ he said. “Never have I ever gotten a blister on my ring finger. I had a huge one. And now that’s gone, I have a cracked nail on my middle finger.’’
San Francisco Giants ace Johnny Cueto is hesitant to blame this year’s baseballs, but did acknowledge this is the first time in his career that he’s had blisters on the index finger and middle finger of his pitching hand.
“There’s not much of a seam on the ball anymore,’’ Detroit Tigers ace Justin Verlander recently told the Detroit Free Press. “When you got up to the big leagues, if you picked up a minor league ball to a big league ball, the seams were always wound tighter, just a little smaller. It was noticeable, but now you look at the ball and try to look at it from the side, there isn’t one. There is no seam.’’
Washington Nationals pitching coach Mike Maddux says he hasn’t noticed a change in baseballs by the touch, but, oh, when they’re hit, he sure sees the difference.
“You just sit there and scratch your head,’ he says.
Says Rays pitcher Alex Cobb: “I’ve been at the Trop my whole career, and I’ve never seen so many balls hit catwalks. You used to see once a homestand, maybe. Now it’s twice a game, sometimes.’’
There have already been 26 homers that have traveled at least 460 feet this season, with four players - Aaron Judge, Kennys Vargas, Chad Pinder and Jorge Soler -  hitting homers of 470 feet or more.
“I think the old eye test is the best thing to go by,’’ Verlander said. “You see balls leaving the yard that otherwise shouldn’t. Whether it’s juiced or not, I don’t know.
“I wish, if it was true, that MLB would just say, ‘Yeah, you know, we wanted more offense, we juiced them just a little bit.' At least then, it’s like, ‘OK, we’re all on the same playing field, we got the same ball in our hands.’ But the explanation of why home runs are going out at such an extreme rate, I think people just want answers to that.
“Specifically, the pitchers.’’
As for the hitters? Predictably, they are less bullish on the juiced-ball theory, citing superior physical conditioning, a greater emphasis on going all in on power and, to a far lesser extent, the advent of advanced data such as launch angles and exit velocity.
"As hitters, we all know the strikeout rate is increasing," says Pittsburgh Pirates second baseman Josh Harrison. "So if that’s going to increase, something else has to increase for us. You’ve got the shift taking away hits up the middle, and balls that used to be hits are now outs.
"Averages may go down, strikeouts may go up - but power numbers may go up."
So, too, are pitchers' ERA - 4.34 overall, the highest since 2007. Even Clayton Kershaw, the Dodgers’ three-time Cy Young award winner, is yielding a 2.47 ERA - his highest in five years - while already surrendering a career-high 17 homers.
How can so many of the game’s greatest pitchers be giving up more homers than at any time in their careers without something funny going on?
“Baseball has talked a long time about getting offense in the game,’’ Marlins veteran reliever David Phelps said. “So whether it’s us pitchers struggling or the hitters doing a better job of driving the ball out of the ballpark, it’s happened.
“They’re probably not too upset about it.
“But we, as pitchers, just want answers. We want to know what changed because there’s definitely a difference with the way balls are flying out of the ballpark. If there’s a reason, we just want to know what it is.’’