Wednesday, April 25, 2018

Acuna Matata




Acuna Matata. What a wonderful phrase. Acuna Matata. Ain't no passing craze. It means no worries … OK, you get it.

Venezuelan reporter Daniel Alvarez Montes of EVTV Miami heard from a source late Tuesday night that the Braves are calling up top outfield prospect Ronald Acuna from Triple-A Gwinnett. MLB.com’s Mark Bowman soon confirmed that report, noting that the 20-year-old will join the team ahead of Wednesday night’s game against the Reds at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati.

Acuna got off to a sluggish start this year at Gwinnett, but some of that can be blamed on the nine days of inactivity between the end of Braves camp and the start of the Triple-A season. He had caught fire over the last week-plus, going 11-for-33 (.333) with a homer, a double, four walks, and three stolen bases in eight games between April 17 and April 24.

Acuna slashed .325/.374/.522 with 21 home runs, 82 RBI, 44 stolen bases, and 88 runs scored in 139 games last season between three different levels of the Braves’ minor league system.

If the picture hasn’t already been painted well enough, this dude is going to be a fantasy monster.

Acuna will take over as the Braves’ everyday left fielder, with Ender Inciarte sticking in center field and Nick Markakis continuing to man right field. Preston Tucker, who showed impressive power early on but is in an 8-for-48 slump, figures to become more of a utility outfielder and bench bat.

The hype is real. The wait is over. Get Acuna active and reap the rewards.





Donaldson Down On Farm Soon

Good news here for the Blue Jays, as manager John Gibbons told reporters on Tuesday that injured third baseman Josh Donaldson could get into some minor league rehab games by the end of this week. A more detailed plan is expected to be announced Wednesday.

Donaldson landed on the disabled list April 13, retroactive to April 11, with inflammation in his right shoulder that first popped up in spring training and had been affecting his ability to make strong and accurate throws across the diamond over the first two weeks of the regular season.

Tests showed no structural damage in the shoulder and the Blue Jays seem confident that Donaldson will be able to return to the hot corner when the time comes. Yangervis Solarte has filled in nicely at third base since Donaldson went down and figures to remain a fixture in the starting lineup, which could mean a demotion for second baseman Devon Travis, who’s batting just .130/.203/.148 with one extra-base hit (a double) in 59 plate appearances this season. Solarte, for reference, has an .842 OPS with five home runs and three doubles.

But the Blue Jays also have to figure out what they want to do with Lourdes Gurriel, the highly-ranked Cuban infield prospect who was promoted from Double-A New Hampshire on Friday. He’s made two starts at second base and one start at shortstop so far at the major league level, going 3-for-11 with three RBI at the plate. Aledmys Diaz has served as the Jays’ primary shortstop so far in 2018 and got off to a nice start offensively, but has fallen into a bad slump over the last week. There’s still some time for Toronto to get this all sorted out.



Flaherty Up For Cardinals On Saturday

Cardinals manager Mike Matheny announced after Tuesday night’s loss to the Mets that Jack Flaherty will be called up to start this Saturday against the Pirates in Pittsburgh.

The 22-year-old right-hander will be filling in for Adam Wainwright, who landed on the 10-day disabled list Sunday with inflammation in his right elbow. Wainwright believes he will be ready to return when first eligible, but elbow injuries are always tricky and this is not his first one.

Flaherty struck out nine batters over five innings of one-run ball back on April 3, but he got optioned to Memphis the next day with Adam Wainwright returning from a late-spring hamstring strain to start the Cardinals’ home opener on April 5 against the Diamondbacks.

Flaherty has registered a 2.25 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, and 22/3 K/BB ratio in 20 innings (three starts) for Memphis since the demotion. He holds a 2.65 ERA in 105 1/3 career innings at Triple-A.

This might be another one-start deal, but Flaherty is worth activating again in mixed fantasy leagues.



Walker Buehler

National League Quick Hits: Brewers manager Craig Counsell said late Tuesday that Eric Thames will undergo tests on his thumb … Dodgers optioned right-hander Walker Buehler to High-A Rancho Cucamonga with the intention of recalling him as the 26th man to start one half of Saturday’s doubleheader against the Giants … Kris Bryant (head) was held out of the Cubs’ starting lineup on Tuesday night against the Indians … Tyler Mahle took a no-hitter into the seventh inning and struck out a career-high 11 batters in Tuesday’s 9-7 extra-innings win over the Braves … Jay Bruce had three hits -- including a go-ahead solo home run in the top of the 10th inning -- in Tuesday's win over the Cardinals … Joey Votto smashed his first home run of the season in Tuesday's win over the Braves … Making a triumphant return to Kansas City, Lorenzo Cain went 2-for-3 with a homer and two walks in the Brewers' 5-2 victory over the Royals on Tuesday … Cardinals manager Mike Matheny said Bud Norris was not available out of the bullpen Tuesday because of "a little soreness” … Scooter Gennett hit his first two home runs of the season Tuesday, with the second one being a walk-off shot in the 12th inning versus the Braves … Christian Villanueva (hamstring) was out of the Padres' starting lineup again on Tuesday night and might be sidelined until Friday … Kyle Schwarber punished a pair of solo home runs Tuesday in Cleveland … Rich Hill (finger) is expecting to return to the Dodgers' rotation Monday in Arizona … Jason Vargas (hand) is set to make his Mets debut on Saturday in San Diego … Padres placed first baseman Eric Hosmer on the family medical emergency list … Freddie Freeman swatted a pair of solo home runs Tuesday in Cincinnati … Wei-Yin Chen (elbow) is scheduled to make his season debut on Saturday night against the Rockies … Devin Mesoraco was scratched from the Reds' starting lineup Tuesday due to neck stiffness … Orlando Arcia was absent from the Brewers' starting lineup on Tuesday because of a stomach bug … Joe Musgrove (shoulder) is scheduled to make a simulated start on Wednesday … Stephen Vogt (shoulder) will head to extended spring training on Wednesday … Cardinals left-hander Brett Cecil (shoulder) has reported to High-A Palm Beach to begin a minor league rehab assignment … Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Yimi Garcia (elbow) will likely be activated sometime in May … Brewers left-hander Boone Logan (triceps) will begin a minor league rehab assignment later this week with Double-A Biloxi … Reds designated right-hander Kevin Quackenbush for assignment.

American League Quick Hits: Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre suffered a left hamstring strain in Tuesday night’s loss to the Athletics and is likely headed to the disabled list … White Sox placed outfielder Avisail Garcia on the 10-day disabled list with a right hamstring strain … Mike Trout became the first player to reach double figures in homers when he took Charlie Morton deep on Tuesday … Xander Bogaerts (ankle) went 2-for-3 with a homer and a double Tuesday in his first rehab game at Triple-A Pawtucket … Gary Sanchez socked a pair of home runs and drove in three runs Tuesday against the Twins … Curtis Granderson went 3-for-5 and delivered a walkoff homer against Craig Kimbrel as the Blue Jays edged the Red Sox in extra innings on Tuesday … Jonathan Schoop (oblique) hit off a tee, took grounders, and threw on Tuesday … Mariners left-hander Marco Gonzales held the White Sox off the scoreboard for six-plus innings in Tuesday’s 1-0 victory … Athletics closer Blake Treinen suffered a bruised right shin Tuesday when he was struck by a Shin-Soo Choo line drive, but he is expected to be fine in a couple of days … Salvador Perez (knee) homered in his return from the disabled list Tuesday against the Brewers … Andrelton Simmons went 3-for-5 with two homers and five RBI in leading the Angels to an 8-7 win over the Astros on Tuesday … Byron Buxton will receive treatment on his bruised left toe in Fort Myers before resuming his minor league rehab assignment … Zach Britton (heel) threw a bullpen session off a regular mound Tuesday at Camden Yards … Ian Kennedy will be in a walking boot for the next 12-24 hours after exiting his start Tuesday night against the Brewers with a bruised right foot … Roberto Osuna took his first blown save after giving up two runs in the ninth Tuesday against the Red Sox … Royals placed setup man Justin Grimm on the 10-day disabled list with lower back stiffness … Greg Bird (ankle) will travel to Tampa on Friday to continue his rehab … Jayson Werth has joined the Mariners' Triple-A affiliate in Tacoma … Steven Wright (knee) is scheduled to resume his rehab assignment Wednesday … Athletics reliever Liam Hendriks recently had a cyst removed from his hip and a platelet-rich plasma injection … Orioles claimed utilityman Jace Peterson off waivers from the Yankees.

Monday, April 23, 2018

A swing and a belt....

 No, I am not writing about Dan Schulman's new podcast, but one Brandon Belt.

It isn’t often that a routine fly out to right field is noteworthy, and most certainly have no business in the all-time record books. Brandon Belt’s at-bat against Jaime Barria in the first inning on Sunday was no ordinary plate appearance though.

The at-bat began with a foul ball. Followed by a pitch out of the zone to even the count at 1-1. He then swung and missed, putting him in a hole at 1-2. That’s when Belt went into battle mode. He fouled off the fourth and fifth pitches of the at-bat before taking ball two outside the zone.

Belt then spoiled each of the next two pitches foul, before taking ball three on the ninth pitch of the at-bat. Regardless of how this one turned out, it was going to be a quality first-inning at-bat for the Giants’ first baseman. He was just getting started though.

Belt fouled off the 10th pitch of the at-bat. Then the 11th. And the 12th. He spoiled the 13th foul as well. And the 14th. Likewise for the 15th.

The 16th pitch of the at-bat he knocked foul as well. Same with the 17th and the 18th. The 19th pitch of this epic battle? That one was sent foul as well. As he stood waiting to see his 20th pitch of the at-bat, Belt etched his name in baseball history. The record for most pitches in an at-bat was held by Ricky Gutiererez of the Astros who battled the ageless wonder Bartolo Colon for 20 pitches before eventually striking out back in June of 1998.

It was at this point that Belt must have thought to himself, well, I’ve come this far, might as well just keep on going. That’s exactly what he did, when he fouled off Barria’s 20th offering of the at-bat. That was the 16th foul ball of the at-bat.

Finally, on the 21st pitch, Belt flew out to right field, to a chorus of applause from the opposing fans in Los Angeles.

Just having that type of historic battle in your first plate appearance would be enough for most hitters to consider their day a success. The Baby Giraffe had more in store.

In his next at-bat in the third inning, Belt fouled off four straight two-strike pitches before lining a single into center field.

In the fifth inning, he fouled off three straight full count offerings before smashing a solo home run to right field that increased the Giants’ advantage to 4-0. That blast was Belt’s fifth home run of the season and marked the fourth consecutive start in which he has left the yard. He became the first Giants’ hitter to homer in four consecutive games since Hunter Pence accomplished the feat in 2013.

In his next trip to the plate, he didn’t waste any time, lining the first pitch that he saw from Jim Johnson into right field for his third hit of the ballgame. In the eighth inning, the Angels finally got him to go down without a fight, flying out to left field on the first pitch that he saw.

All told, Belt finished his memorable evening 3-for-5 with a pair of runs scored. He’s off to a terrific start through his first 17 games, slashing .288/.386/.576 with five homers and 10 RBI. Health has always been the primary concern for Belt, as he has always been a solid contributor while in the Giants’ lineup.



Haniger Heating Up

Mitch Haniger burst onto the scene during the 2017 season, earning a starting job in the Mariners’ outfield and slashing a ridiculous .332/.447/.608 with four homers and 16 RBI through his first 21 games.

Then, on April 25, his season was derailed by an oblique strain that landed him on the disabled list. He didn’t return until June 11 and clearly wasn’t the same player upon his return. Many fantasy owners chalked it up to him leveling off after overachieving for the first month of the season.

He started to sway those doubters though in September, when he hit .353/.374/.613 with seven homers and 14 RBI over 28 games during the final month of the 2017 regular season.

He hasn’t slowed down since. Haniger has come out of the gate on fire in 2018. On Sunday he logged three extra-base hits, going 3-for-5 with a pair of doubles and a homer in a loss to the Rangers.

His two-run blast in the seventh inning marked the third consecutive game in which Haniger has homered this season. He has been one of the top offensive performers in all of baseball this year, hitting a robust .314/.390/.671 with seven long balls, 22 RBI and a stolen bases.

He has ascended to the second spot in the Mariners’ lineup, sandwiched between Jean Segura and Robinson Cano, which seems like an optimal spot for production. As long as he can avoid the disabled list. Haniger is looking like an early lock to deliver substantial profit to fantasy owners who invested in him this spring.



Getting Better With Age

It’s difficult to entertain the notion that Mike Trout, already widely believed to be the best all-around player in Major League Baseball, is continually getting better.

This is a guy that has already won two American League MVP Awards, and has been the runner-up three times in his six full seasons in the big leagues. Then you remember, he’s still only 26-years-old.

If the first 22 games of the 2018 season are any indication, this could be the best that we’ve seen from Trout yet.

On Sunday, Trout crushed a two-run homer in the eighth inning of a loss to the Giants. It was his American League-leading ninth home run of the season and the third straight game in which he has left the yard.

He finished the day 1-for-4 and is now slashing .306/.406/.682 with nine homers, 18 runs scored, 17 RBI and three stolen bases. All while playing Gold Glove-caliber defense in center field.

As long as he remains healthy, there’s no limit to the heights that he could potentially reach both for this season and for his career.



American League Quick Hits: Byron Buxton (migraines) could be activated from the disabled list as early as Wednesday… Trey Mancini missed his second straight game with a right knee injury… Mark Trumbo (quad) will resume his minor league rehab assignment at Double-A Bowie on Monday… Bradley Zimmer was scratched from the Indians’ lineup on Sunday due to a minor right ankle sprain… Dee Gordon sat out on Sunday due to a minor foot injury… Andrelton Simmons was forced to leave Sunday’s game with a right forearm contusion after being hit by a pitch. He’s day-to-day... Luis Severino struck out six over seven innings of one-run ball in a victory over the Blue Jays… Miguel Andujar went 4-for-4 with two doubles as the Yankees beat the Jays… Jose Ramirez blasted a pair of home runs, his fifth and sixth of the season, as the Indians topped the Orioles… Manny Machado crushed two home runs of his own in a losing effort there… Mike Moustakas belted a go-ahead three-run homer to sink the Tigers on Sunday… Carlos Gomez launched a walk-off two-run homer to beat the Twins… Daniel Robertson went 4-for-4 with a double and a run scored in that win… Joey Gallo swatted his seventh home run in a win over the Mariners… Khris Davis crushed a go-ahead three-run homer in the eighth inning to beat the Red Sox.


National League Quick Hits: Sunday’s game between the Mets and Braves was postponed due to inclement weather. It’ll be made up as part of a split doubleheader on May 28… Kris Bryant was forced to leave Sunday’s game against the Rockies after getting hit in the head by a pitch thrown by German Marquez. He passed through the initial concussion tests without issue and will be re-evaluated on Monday… Todd Frazier sat out Sunday’s game due to a sore toe. He’s considered day-to-day… Tommy Pham sat out another contest due to groin tightness… The Cardinals placed Adam Wainwright on the 10-day disabled list with right elbow inflammation. He’s expected to be replaced by Jack Flaherty in the Cardinals’ rotation… Carlos Gonzalez landed on the 10-day disabled list with a right hamstring strain. With Gonzalez sidelined and Gerardo Parra serving his suspension, the Rockies recalled David Dahl from Triple-A Albuquerque… Eugenio Suarez hit off a tee and took soft toss on Saturday as he works his way back from a fractured left thumb… Orlando Arcia (ankle) is expected to return to the Brewers’ lineup on Tuesday… Dodgers’ manager Dave Roberts announced that Walker Buehler will be recalled from Triple-A to start on Monday… Jose Bautista is expected to be added to the Braves’ roster as some point during their road trip that begins on Monday. He’ll play in a doubleheader with Triple-A Gwinnett on Monday… The Nationals finally placed Anthony Rendon on the 10-day disabled list with his toe injury, after missing eight games with the ailment… Jake Lamb (shoulder) will be shut down for the next few days due to tendinitis in his elbow… Caleb Smith racked up a career-high 10 strikeouts over six innings of two-run baseball in a loss to the Brewers… Miles Mikolas improved to 3-0, allowing just one unearned run over seven innings in a win over the Reds… Paul DeJong clubbed his seventh home run as the Cardinals thrashed the Reds… Charlie Blackmon went 3-for-5 and launched his National League-leading eighth home run in a loss to the Cubs… Javy Baez smoked his seventh long ball and drove in three to lead the Cubs to victory… Christian Villanueva hit his seventh home run of the season and is now riding a nine-game hitting streak… Patrick Corbin punched out 11 over six innings of two-run ball in a win over the Padres… Johnny Cueto whiffed seven over six shutout innings to beat the Angels...Michael Taylor went 3-for-3 plus a walk with a homer and two stolen bases in a loss to the Dodgers on Sunday night.


Sunday, April 22, 2018

Buy Low Sell High




As we head into the final full week of April, the time has passed where fantasy owners can imagine vaulting up the standings in just a couple days. Standings are clearly going to evolve over the remaining five-plus months, but owners will need more than a five-homer or three-win day move from 10th place to 3rd. With the climb starting to seem longer, owners who are off to a slow start are prone to making panic moves.

To be clear, we are still at the point in the season where most outlier statistics are a mirage. The inevitable swings that occur with influential stats such as BABIP, strand rate and HR/FB rate seem especially pronounced right now when they are not offset by results over a longer period, which creates opportunities for owners to dig deeper on specific players and separate those who have made real changes in their game from those who have enjoyed good or bad luck.  With the goal of looking at the trade market from a variety of angles, here are 10 players who should be the topic of many discussions right now.




Buy Low

Joey Votto, First baseman (Reds): Considered to be one of the best pure hitters in baseball (.320/.454/.578 slash line in 2017), Votto is batting just .246 and has yet to put a ball over the outfield wall this year. Further, the slugger is currently lacking his trademark plate discipline, posting a 7.8 percent walk rate that pales in comparison to his lifetime 16.1 percent mark. However, while some Votto owners will be panicking that the 34-year-old is at the outset of an age-related decline, those who know their stuff will recognize that the veteran has become a slow starter in recent seasons. In fact, since the outset of 2016, Votto has logged a .728 OPS in April, a .935 mark in May and an OPS above 1.000 in each subsequent month of the season. This is the perfect time to acquire Votto, who seems destined to heat up with the weather.

Daniel Murphy, Second baseman (Nationals): With a rash of April injuries across the Majors, owners who were happy to stash an injured Murphy until he returns from offseason knee surgery are likely feeling the pinch with their DL slots. While Murphy owners who have mostly escaped the injury bug are fine to hold him until he returns to action, those who are struggling to keep healthy bodies in their lineup and bench will have to strongly consider trading him at a reduced cost. Wise owners will focus on Murphy’s uncertain return date while trading for someone who could be a top-20 hitter (.334 average, 48 homers, 197 RBIs across 2016-17) when he is back to full strength.

Adrian Beltre, Third baseman (Rangers): Although Beltre is off to a respectable start (.288/.357/.397 slash line), he has homered just once and has thus far been a marginal fantasy asset. The nondescript early season results should create a buying opportunity for owners who can convince the Beltre owner that at age 39, his days of providing difference-making statistics have come to an end. The veteran has thus far produced a 42.9 percent hard-contact rate that is better than his lifetime 33.1 mark and would have an extra homer or two if not for a 6.7 percent HR/FB rate (lifetime 13.5 percent rate). When all is said and done, Beltre will likely wrap up this season with a .300 average and 25 long balls.

Whit Merrifield, Second baseman (Royals): The start of the season has been a nondescript one for Merrifield, who is batting .271 with 10 runs scored, five RBIs and one steal. His teammates haven’t done much to help his cause either, as the team has collectively posted a .657 OPS while averaging just 3.1 runs per game. However, things should soon improve for Merrifield, who has thus far posted a 42.1 percent hard-contact rate that dwarfs his 30.6 mark from his breakout 2017 season. With steals sources at a premium, wise owners will try to get Merrifield at a discount from those who are currently concerned that they wasted a pick on a one-year wonder.

Josh Hader, Reliever (Brewers): While most fantasy owners understand that there is value attached to skilled setup men, few owners truly understand how valuable they can be.  Hader is a great model to illustrate this point, as he currently ranks among the 10 most productive relievers despite accumulating zero wins and two saves. With many starters struggling to work deep into games and closers regularly losing their jobs, talented setup men have become some of the most stable pitching commodities. Among middle relievers, few can match the talent of Hader (1.54 ERA, 0.51 WHIP, 19.3 K/9 rate in 2018). Brewers manager Craig Counsell has made it clear that he has no interest in using Hader as a traditional closer while Corey Knebel is on the disabled list, giving wise owners a clear path to explaining why they should be able to acquire the southpaw at a reasonable cost.


Sell High

Bryce Harper, Outfielder (Nationals): When everything is going right for Harper, he is perhaps the only hitter in baseball who can compare to Angels superstar Mike Trout. Things have certainly been going right thus far, with Harper leading the Majors in homers (eight) and placing third in RBIs (19) on the way to ranking alongside Mookie Betts as the most productive fantasy commodities. However, hot starts aren’t anything new to Harper, who owns a lifetime 1.088 OPS in April that is more than 100 points higher than any other month. Further, the 25-year-old remains an injury risk, having just recorded an OPS over .854 across at least 140 games just once in his previous six campaigns. While it should take a king’s ransom to acquire Harper, his fantasy owners should be willing to listen.

Brad Hand, Reliever (Padres): As was recently mentioned in this space for relievers Wade Davis and Jeurys Familia, early season saves leaders are likely to be overvalued by owners who don’t recognize that save opportunities often come in bunches. And Hand certainly fits this description, as he currently ranks fourth in baseball with six saves. Unfortunatey, due to the rebuilding nature of the Padres this season, the southpaw stopper is more likely than the other saves leaders to eventually go through a dry spell. Hand has thus far collected saves in six of his club’s eight victories, which is a rate that simply can’t continue. Additionally, after having signed a reasonable long-term deal in the offseason, the 28-year-old could be traded this summer to a contending club who slots him into a setup role.

Sean Manaea, Starter (A’s): As a 26-year-old who is off to a great start (1.63 ERA, 0.72 WHIP heading into a Saturday start against Boston), Manaea is bound to get attention by fantasy owners as someone who is possibly at the outset of a breakout season. However, the southpaw has benefited from a .169 BABIP, and his 4.14 FIP is likely a better representation of someone who logged a mediocre 6.5 K/9 rate across his initial four outings. While his control gains (1.3 BB/9 rate in 2018) are encouraging, Manaea could be traded away by those who correctly see him as more of a mid-rotation asset than a mixed-league ace.

DJ LeMahieu, Second baseman (Rockies): While LeMahieu is definitely a mixed-league asset who should rank among the league leaders in batting average and runs scored, he is likely set for a short stay on the home-run leaders list. The 29-year-old -- who has already tallied five homers this year -- has a career-high of 11 long balls and posted his second-best total when he went deep eight times last season. While LeMahieu owners should not be desperate to trade him away, they should also recognize the looming power regression from someone who currently has a 26.3 percent HR/FB rate that dwarfs his lifetime 7.4 percent mark.

Dansby Swanson, Shortstop (Braves): Formerly a top prospect who is off to a great start this season (.342 average, .928 OPS), Swanson is going to pique the interest of owners who believe that he could be the next skilled youngster to enjoy a breakout season. However, the youngster has benefited from an unsustainable .429 BABIP while showing terrible plate control (27 percent BB:K ratio) and logging an unremarkable 29.3 percent hard-contact rate. With little power and speed (six homers, three steals in 2017), Swanson should be peddled for a low price by owners who recognize that he could eventually return to the waiver wire in mixed formats.

Saturday, April 21, 2018

Oakland Explodes

 
It was a busy Friday night in Major League Baseball with a doubleheader, a few amazing pitching performances and some big stats from offensive players, too. A few of the outings we have come to expect, but there were a few other players that perhaps the casual fan is just getting to know. We also had a handful of players making their season debut after overcoming injuries. Pitchers had the upper hand in a lot of the games, but the bats were on fire in places like Denver and St. Petersburg. Let's get started!




Friday's Fantasy Five

Jed Lowrie continues to roll up huge numbers, and he was at it again on Friday night against his original MLB organization. He finished 4-for-5 with a pair of doubles, a run scored and an RBI to raise his average to .372. He leads the majors with 32 hits while also sitting atop the list with 22 RBI. Is he a triple crown candidate? Well, let's not get crazy. However, he is doing an amazing job in pitcher-friendly O.co Coliseum. He'll look to keep it rolling on Saturday against Red Sox RHP Chris Sale. He is 8-for-20 (.400) with two RBI and four strikeouts all-time against the BoSox ace.

Justin Verlander has the fastball dancing against a very familiar opponent. He knows the White Sox all too well from his days with the Detroit Tigers, and he picked up another win at Guaranteed Rate Field on Friday. He allowed just two hits with three walks and five strikeouts over six strikeouts to run his record to 3-0 and lower his ERA to 1.10. He is 4-0 across his past nine starts against the White Sox dating back to the start of the 2015 season, and he has 71 strikeouts over 55 1/3 innings during the impressive span. He has won seven of his past eight decisions against the White Sox, and his last loss against the came on June 11, 2014.




Brian Dozier finished Friday's game in Tampa Bay with two hits over five at-bats with a run scored. It wasn't all great, as he was caught stealing at second base. He has hit safely in all 14 games this season, going 18-for-62 (.290) with 13 runs scored, four homers and seven RBI, and he has a 21-game hitting streak going back to last season. It's the longest active hitting streak in the majors, and the longest by a member of the Twins since Dozier hit safely in 24 straight back during the 2016 campaign.

Javier Baez is doing amazing things for the Cubbies, and he had another big line in Friday's rout at Coors Field. The second baseman posted four hits, including a double and a two-run home run while ending up with four RBI. He is in some rare Chicago Cubs company, posting 20 RBI through the first 17 games. He is the first player in the organization to reach 20 or more RBI through the club's first 17 outings since Billy Williams collected 25 RBI during the 1970 season. He has done a majority of the good work lately, driving in 16 runs over the past eight games.

Tyson Ross is normally not someone fantasy owners are going to depend upon, but anyone who rolled the dice on his in DFS as a contrarian play in Arizona was treated to a great pitching line. He carried a no-hitter into the eighth inning before pinch hitter Christian Walker doubled in a run to spoil the bid with two outs. Despite the impressive 127-pitch outing he ended up coming up empty with a very unsatisfying no-decision, although he'll certainly be encouraged by the start. He'll try to keep it rolling in San Francisco next Tuesday. The Padres remain the only active organization without a no-hitter in franchise history.





Game of the Night

A game at Coors Field can be the best game for fantasy purposes most nights, but it was especially so on Friday. The Cubs racked up 16 runs and 18 hits in the road win. We mentioned Baez and his exploits above, but he wasn't the only one raking. Albert Almora racked up four hits with a double, an RBI and four runs scored in the win. It was his first-career four-hit game, and he is now slashing .325/.372/.525, including an impressive 9-for-18 (.500) with nine runs scored across the past six contests. Kyle Schwarber is loving life at Coors Field, collecting five hits with six RBI in the first two games of the series. He is now slashing .283/.406/.566, as he is finally healthy and getting a chance to play frequently. Kyle Hendricks picked up his first win of the season, and Coors Field probably wouldn't be the guess for most where that would happen. Most pitchers do not iron their problems out in the rarefied air, but he yielded just three runs and five hits with no walks and six strikeouts over five innings for his first victory of the 2018 campaign.

For the Rockies, Nolan Arenado was back from a five-game suspension. He didn't show any rust from his layoff, going 3-for-4 with a two-run home run in his first at-bat. While Jon Gray was getting tattooed on the mound, allowing seven runs - five earned - and eight hits over five innings, he was able to collect a single and a double in two at-bats to at least try and help himself out. The Rockies didn't offer very much relief, either, as Bryan Shaw has been a disaster in relief with a 7.84 ERA. He coughed up five runs, four hits and a walk while retiring just two batters. Antonio Senzatela has also been terrible out of the bullpen, yielding four earned runs, six hits and a walk in just two innings as his ERA ballooned to 9.53. Ryan MacMahon ended up 2-for-4 with a double and two runs scored, posting his first-career multi-hit game.

American League Quick Hits: Jason Hammel allowed two earned runs, five hits and two walks with four strikeouts over nine innings in a no-decision in Game 1 of a doubleheader in Detroit, matching the longest outing of his career. … Mike Moustakas hit in each end of the twin bill, an he has now hit safely in 12 straight games. … JaCoby Jones shined in Game 1, going 2-for-4 with a double, a solo home run and two runs scored with two RBI. He then went 1-for-2 with a triple, a run scored and an RBI in the nightcap. Play like that is certain to buy him some more regular playing time. … Roberto Osuna slammed the door for his sixth save of the season against the Yankees and he has yet to yield a run this season. … Yangervis Solarte swatted a home run and he now has left the yard five times this season. … Lourdes Gurriel made his MLB debut, going 2-for-5 with three RBI. … Giancarlo Stanton cracked a two-run home run to hopefully snap him back on track. … Sonny Gray was terrible in his outing, allowing five earned runs, five hits and four walks with no strikeouts and two wild pitches in 3 1/3 innings in a no-decision. … Roberto Perez got a chance to play, but he took the golden sombrero with four strikeouts in four at-bats. … Dylan Bundy allowed just one run, five hits and two walks with nine strikeouts against the Indians, improving to 1-2 while lowering his ERA to a minuscule 1.42. … Darren O'Day slammed the door shut with two strikeouts for his first save, racking up 11 strikes on 16 pitches. … Jeff Junis was impressive in Game 2 of the K.C.-Detroit double dip, allowing just two earned runs with four hits, a walk and four strikeouts over eight innings. He is still only worth a look in deeper AL-only leagues, but perhaps he is starting to come around. … Fernando Rodney blew his second save chance for the Twins, although he did strike out three in the inning of work. … Mitch Haniger had an impressive showing, going 3-for-4 with a double, a home run, two RBI and a walk. Jean Segura also collected three hits, including a key hit in a late-inning rally to help the team to a road victory. … Keone Kela was smacked around for three earned runs and three hits while retiring just one batter in a relief loss in the non-save situation. … Carlos Correa cracked two homers with three RBI across five at-bats. … George Springer went 2-for-5 with two doubles, two runs scored and four RBI. … Mitch Moreland cracked a grand slam to help the Red Sox to a nice road win.

National League Quick Hits: Ivan Nova and Ben Lively put on a nice and unexpected pitching performance, as each allowed just one earned run across six innings in a pair of no-decisions. … Noah Syndergaard allowed earned runs while scattering seven hits over six innings in a road no-decision in Atlanta, and he did not walk any batters while striking out six. … Ozzie Albies cracked his sixth homer, as he continues to please his fantasy owner with nice power. … Ryan Braun was powering up again, going 2-for-5 with a homer, two runs scored and two RBI. … Jonathan Villar also took the golden sombrero in the team's 8-0 victory against the Marlins. … Travis Shaw picked him up by going 3-for-4 with a double, a home run and two runs scored. … Michael Wacha shut down the Reds, allowing one earned run, six hits and a walk over 6 2/3 innings in a victory against the struggling Cincinnati Reds. A managerial change did nothing to get the Reds back on track. … Harrison Bader was 1-for-3 with a run scored and a walk, extending his hitting streak to six games. … Jeff Samardzija (pectoral) made his season debut, allowing just two hits with four walks and four strikeouts over five innings to pick up the win against the Angels. … Mac Williamson belted a homer in his first game back in the majors, seizing an opportunity to play for the injured Hunter Pence (thumb). … Max Scherzer outdueled Clayton Kershaw in a battle of three-time Cy Young Award winners, the first such matchup since 2006. Scherzer came away with the win, allowing just one run with nine strikeouts over six innings. … Kershaw picked up his third loss of the season. Last year he didn't lose his third decision until Sept. 7.

Friday, April 20, 2018

Price Reduced







To say the Reds’ season has been bleak would be putting it lightly. Cincinnati’s nightmare start has nothing on Simon and Garfunkel. They’ve won just three of their 18 games so far, giving them the worst record in MLB. Cincinnati’s run differential (-46) is only second-worst in the league, but that’s mostly because the Marlins got whooped by the Brewers on Thursday while the Reds had the day off. Speaking of days off, the Reds’ offense has taken the whole WEEK off. Seriously—the Reds haven’t scored a run since Monday after being shut out in back-to-back games by the Brewers. Wednesday’s defeat was their fifth shutout loss of the season and it’s only April.

Sure, Charlie Brown’s team was bad but at least they had Snoopy. What do the Reds have going for them right now? Not a whole lot. Homer Bailey, who looks like a superhero but doesn’t pitch like one, has been a shell of his pre-Tommy John self with three losses in the early going, though it’s come with a reasonable 3.42 ERA. The Reds have roughly a million outfielders on their roster, none of whom can hit including Billy Hamilton, who runs like the wind but can barely hit his weight (he weighs 160 pounds). Luis Castillo, one of the few bright spots from last year, has fallen victim to the dreaded sophomore slump. Raisel Iglesias gets a save opportunity about as often as the Olympics. Greg Oden—I mean Anthony DeSclafani—hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2016. Zack Cozart left to sign with the Angels this offseason and took his donkey with him. Even old reliable Joey Votto doesn’t have it this year. Last year’s MVP runner-up in the National League has one extra-base hit in 66 at-bats this season.

When a team does this badly, someone has to be held responsible. On Thursday, the Reds cleaned house by dumping manager Bryan Price along with pitching coach Mack Jenkins. Thursday’s dismissal concluded Price’s four-year run in Cincinnati, which ended with three straight last-place finishes in the NL Central. Aside from losing all the time, Price was probably most known for his profane rant in 2015 which included the use of not one, not two but 77 F-bombs. If this were A Christmas Story, he’d be eating a bar of soap right now. The Reds have had their fair share of bad luck with injuries to Eugenio Suarez and Scott Schebler, but Price wasn’t getting the job done.

With Price gone, the Reds will turn to Jim Riggleman—yes, he’s still around—as their interim manager. The last team to fire their manager in April was the Tigers in 2002. They finished with a 55-106 record that year. Good luck to you, Jim.



I hate to be the glass-half empty guy, but this probably won’t end well. The time for silver linings has come and gone. It’s all bad. Well maybe not all bad. The Reds do have a few interesting prospects on the way. In fact, three of them are ranked in MLB.com’s top 50 including prized infielder Nick Senzel, a 22-year-old who took the minors by storm last season (.321 AVG in 455 at-bats). Senzel could be a game-changer for the Reds’ offense when he arrives in the majors, but even he can’t solve their pitching woes. So far Cincinnati has yielded a league-high 28 long balls while posting MLB’s second-worst ERA (5.42). That might be passable if you have a murderer’s row lineup that can put up runs in a hurry, but if Tucker Barnhart is leading your team in batting average (.277!), the “murderer’s row” label does not apply to you.

The Cubs and Astros have taught us that bottoming out isn’t the worst thing a struggling franchise can do. Both teams floundered for a number of years but were able to turn their luck around by stockpiling prospects. If the Reds want to be successful, they’ll have to follow the same blueprint. Building through the draft is important but if the Reds want to accelerate their turnaround, they should consider moving assets like Hamilton and Iglesias. Neither of those players are costing the Reds very much, which is exactly what makes them attractive to other teams.

Though maybe not as pronounced as the Reds’ early struggles, the Orioles are going through a similarly trying stretch. They’ve lost 14 of 19 games to begin the year and have little chance of competing in what should be a two-horse race between the Red Sox and Yankees in the AL East. The Orioles just put the finishing touches on a disastrous road trip, losing all six games including three straight to the Tigers, who aren’t anyone’s idea of a world beater.

Baltimore’s rebuild is long overdue. For years the Orioles have tried to stay relevant, probably as a way of enticing superstar Manny Machado to stay instead of bolting at the end of his rookie deal, but it seems like reality is finally setting in for all parties. Machado knows his future isn’t in Baltimore and the Orioles can see the writing on the wall for Chris Davis and Adam Jones, who are both in steep decline. Mark Trumbo, who has yet to play a game this year, falls under the same umbrella. Zach Britton, an All-Star closer and Cy Young contender as recently as two years ago, has battled a seemingly endless string of injuries while free agent signing Alex Cobb has limped to a 15.43 ERA through two starts. Even Jonathan Schoop, who was arguably the team MVP last season with 32 homers and 105 RBI, has yet to come out of hibernation (.230 AVG in 61 at-bats).

The solution is staring Baltimore square in the face. The Orioles would surely get a king’s ransom for Machado, who could help a contending team in the same way that Justin Verlander did last year in Houston’s run to the World Series. He should be a goner come July 31 along with Britton and perhaps even Schoop if the O’s really want to blow this thing up. Trading away a franchise cornerstone like Machado will do little to quell the team’s attendance problem, but the prospect haul will at least give the Orioles a chance to start over. More importantly, Baltimore can’t risk losing Machado for nothing when he inevitably skips town next winter.

I get that it’s April 20 and anything can happen between now and October. In fact, the Rangers have gone on a mini hot streak—I assume just to spite me—since I doubted them last week. But the reality is, the Reds and Orioles simply aren’t built for 2018. Change will come soon enough but until then … hello darkness, my old friend. I’ve come to talk with you again …

AL Quick Hits: Shohei Ohtani exited Tuesday’s start with a blister but returned to action on Thursday, serving as the Angels’ DH against Boston. He went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts as the Red Sox extended their winning streak to seven … Xander Bogaerts went through agility drills on Thursday and seems to be making progress as he recovers from a broken bone in his left ankle. He’s a long shot to return during the Red Sox’s current nine-game road trip, though he should be back for Boston’s next homestand, which begins on April 27 … The Yankees activated CC Sabathia from the disabled list on Thursday. He scattered four hits and two runs (both unearned) over 4 1/3 innings in a no-decision against Toronto. Sabathia needed about two weeks to recover from a strained hip … Blue Jays manager John Gibbons confirmed Kendrys Morales (hamstring) will be activated from the disabled list on Friday. The Jays will have a difficult roster decision to make with Randal Grichuk out of minor league options and Teoscar Hernandez off to a strong start (.375 AVG in 24 at-bats) … Zach Britton is slated to throw off a half-mound on Friday. The All-Star closer is still recovering from a ruptured Achilles he suffered in January … Astros manager A.J. Hinch said Ken Giles hasn’t been available the past few days due to a back injury. The closer wasn’t needed Thursday as Houston rolled to a 9-2 win over Seattle … Ryon Healy is set to begin a rehab assignment with Double-A Arkansas. He sprained his ankle in a weight room mishap earlier this month … The Mariners didn’t win on Thursday but they did pull off an interesting triple play thanks to a brain camp by Astros DH Evan Gattis. You can see it for yourself here.

NL Quick Hits: Freddie Freeman left Wednesday’s game after taking a pitch off his left wrist but returned for Thursday’s series opener against the Mets. He went for 2-for-3 with a pair of singles … Matt Harvey labored through another tough outing on Thursday, yielding eight hits and six runs in six innings of work as the Mets fell 12-4 to Atlanta. With Jason Vargas (broken hand) nearing a return, manager Mickey Callaway wouldn’t commit to Harvey making another start … Chris Owings exited Thursday’s game with a head contusion following a collision with teammate A.J. Pollock. Jarrod Dyson replaced Owings in right field as Arizona held on for a 3-1 win over San Francisco … Hunter Pence sat out Thursday’s game against the D’Backs with a sore right thumb. He underwent an MRI and may be headed to the disabled list. That decision could come as soon as Friday with Jeff Samardzija set to return from a strained pectoral muscle … Ryan Braun didn’t start Thursday’s game due to a nagging calf injury but appeared as a pinch-hitter and smacked a three-run homer off Marlins right-hander Junichi Tazawa as Milwaukee cruised to a 12-3 victory. That pushed Braun’s career RBI total to 1,000 … The Padres made room on the roster for Kirby Yates, who is back from an ankle injury, by optioning right-hander Luis Perdomo to Triple-A El Paso. Perdomo has fared miserably in his four starts (8.36 ERA) this year and just finished serving a five-game suspension for inciting a brawl with Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado. This will be Perdomo’s first trip to the minors since 2015 when he was still in the Cardinals’ organization … The Cards called up Tyler O’Neill (MLB.com’s No. 94 prospect) for his major league debut on Thursday. He went 0-for-1 in an 8-5 loss to the Cubs … Tommy Pham didn’t start Thursday’s game against the Cubs after injuring his groin a day earlier, though he did make a pinch-hitting appearance in the seventh inning. He should be back in the St. Louis lineup on Friday … Jake Arrieta improved to 2-0 with Thursday’s win over the Pirates. The right-hander allowed just one hit over seven shutout frames while setting a season-high with 10 punch-outs … Lewis Brinson connected on his first two homers of the year in Thursday’s loss to the Brewers, who traded him this offseason in a deal that sent Christian Yelich to Milwaukee. Brinson has mostly struggled this year, batting .156 with 21 strikeouts in only 64 at-bats.


Wednesday, April 18, 2018

Didi goes Deep Deep




Of the three reasons I suggested staying away from Didi Gregorius this spring, two have gone by the wayside. One was that he was due to hit lower in the Yankees lineup, but that was taken care of by the Greg Bird injury. All spring it looked like Bird would hit ahead of Gregorius, and since the lefties wouldn’t bat back-to-back, Gregorius was looking at hitting sixth or seventh. Aaron Hicks getting hurt on Opening Day also helped; Gregorius hit sixth against a left-hander in the opener, but he’s hit mostly fourth and never lower than fifth since.

Another reason to avoid Gregorius was that he’s a zero in steals. Gregorius, though, was 2-for-3 stealing bases in a series against the Orioles last week. He attempted a total of four steals in 136 games last year. Gregorius shouldn’t remain much of a factor in that category, but having two steals already is part of why he’s rated as a top-10 position player to date.

Neither of those was the big reason I was avoiding Gregorius, though. It was that his power production just wasn’t backed up by his weak exit velocities. Last year, his exit velocity on flyballs/line drives ranked 357th of the 387 players with 100 batted-ball events. His hard-hit percentage, according to FanGraphs, was sixth worst of the 144 players to qualify for the batting title. I didn’t see much to be encouraged about, though I still wasn’t exactly projecting him to be a bust; I had him hitting .271 with 21 homers and 80 RBI.

Did I miss something? There’s certainly something to be said for quantity. Yasmany Tomas kills it when it comes to exit velocity on balls in the air, but he strikes out a quarter of the time and hits grounders half of the time when he makes contract. Gregorius, last year, struck out just 12 percent of the time and hit grounders only 36 percent of the time on contact. That’s a whole lot more chances to sneak one over the wall or dump a double down the line. This year, Gregorius has struck out just three times and hit grounders a mere 31 percent of the time (that would have ranked fourth lowest of batting-title qualifiers last year).

Probably Gregorius has just gotten better. His average exit velocity on flies/liners this year is 93.5 mph, way up from last year’s 88.5 mph. That would have ranked among the upper half of regulars last year, as opposed to the 10th percentile. His hard-hit percentage is up by nearly 50 percent, too. One never wants to read too much into 15 games, but those are very good signs. It also helps his fantasy value substantially that he’d locked into hitting right behind Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton for the foreseeable future. I don’t think he’ll hit like Carlos Correa or Francisco Lindor the rest of the way, but he’s in such a great situation that he doesn’t need to in order to remain very valuable for fantasy purposes. If he wants to keep stealing the occasional base, that’d help, too





American League notes

- Getting pulled from Monday’s game at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre led to speculation that Gleyber Torres was getting called up, though that didn’t make much sense; for service-time reasons, Wednesday was the earliest Torres was going to come up. I’m skeptical that Torres is ready to be all that much of an asset; he’s going to be an excellent player in time, but he’s still just 21 and his power isn’t fully developed yet. If the Yankees do call him up, they’d surely play him regularly initially, making him worth trying in mixed leagues. For the short term, though, his ceiling doesn’t seem particularly high. A Torres promotion would likely result in Miguel Andujar getting sent down; Torres’s last seven starts in Triple-A have all come at third base. Andujar, though, seems to be finding his stroke.

- Ditching his curve in favor of a slider has made a big difference for Reynaldo Lopez, who is sporting a 1.42 ERA over his first three starts. He’s fanned 28.4 percent of the batters he’s faced, nearly double last year’s 14.5 percent from his eight big-league starts. I’m not sure Lopez is a mixed-league asset now; he’s still a big flyball pitcher and he’s walked 11 through 19 innings. He’s certainly gotten more interesting, but I wouldn’t drop anyone of significance to pick him in a 10- or 12-team league.

- With Kevin Kiermaier out 8-12 weeks due to a torn thumb ligament, Mallex Smith is now in line for an extended run as a regular. He was already worth picking up with Brad Miller out, but he has some added value now. Smith has been very shaky defensively, something that could have cost him playing time if everyone were healthy, but the Rays have little choice but to start him nearly everyday and hit him high in the order against right-handers now.

- The Rays just lost Matt Duffy (hamstring), too, which should give Daniel Robertson a chance at regular playing time. Duffy hasn’t looked very good anyway. That’s understandable, given that he’d missed a year and a half, but he was really just producing soft contact. I’m not sure what position he’ll end up at, but Robertson has a better chance of being a big part of the team’s long-term plans than Duffy, Adeiny Hechavarria or Joey Wendle.

- All of the Rangers’ plans seem to be going awry. Part of the problem was that they had some bad plans, but then there was no accounting for losing Delino DeShields Jr., Rougned Odor and Elvis Andrus in the first two weeks of the season. Now they’re in an even bigger mess because Jurickson Profar’s terrible footwork around the bag resulted in him sustaining a concussion on Monday. Isiah Kiner-Falefa will play regularly for a spell, though he shouldn’t have much fantasy value.

- Joey Gallo was only supposed to be a first baseman this year, but he’s in left field now to make room for prospect Ronald Guzman. Guzman is a very solid hitter, but he’s one without the power one wants from a first baseman and he has no ability to play any other position. He might be fine anyway, and since he’s in a good hitting environment in Texas, he could have some value in deeper leagues. It’s still likely that the Rangers will want Willie Calhoun in left field at some point next month, possibly crowding Guzman out of a job. However, much could happen in Texas before then.

- I had my fingers crossed for Derek Fisher in Houston, but he couldn’t establish himself while Yuli Gurriel was out and playing time is going to be hard to come by now. Not that it’s been easy to come by anyway; he has 10 fewer plate appearances than the struggling Jake Marisnick and one more than backup catcher Max Stassi. It’s too bad; Fisher offers a rather rare combination of power and speed. He might not be a good major leaguer yet, but I was really hoping he’d get the chance to succeed or fail.

National League notes

- With seemingly little interest in winning ballgames, the Reds decided against promoting Nick Senzel in the injured Eugenio Suarez’s place last weekend. Senzel did get off to something of a slow start in Triple-A, though given the alternatives, it was hard to justify not making the move. But not only did the Reds pass for now, but they’ve gone back to playing Senzel at second base; he played third in three straight games after Suarez got hurt, but he’s been back at second his last three (he also played second in all four games prior to Suarez’s injury). It suggests that there’s no plan for Senzel to join the team in April, which probably means the Reds aren’t going to chance calling him up until the super-two deadline passes in late May. Which also means the Reds are terribly cheap and thoroughly unworthy of receiving any fan support for the foreseeable future.

- And can we talk some more about Amir Garrett? The 25-year-old lefty showed up this spring with considerably better stuff than he had last year, when he was pretty much handed a rotation spot. He seemed more worthy of the opportunity this time around, but instead he’s been buried in the pen; all seven of his appearances have come with the Reds trailing, and even though he’s yet to allow a run in 9 1/3 innings, the Reds have still lost all seven of those games. I’m not sure Garrett would make for an above average starter as is, but I’d take my chances with him over four-fifths of the Reds’ current rotation. At least it sounds better than having him behind Kevin Quackenbush in the bullpen pecking order.

- When the Padres signed Eric Hosmer over the winter, they were also committing to a long-term future with only one outfield spot open for Hunter Renfroe, Jose Pirela, Franchy Cordero and anyone else who might come along. Of course, there have been plenty of at-bats to go around lately with both Wil Myers (forearm) and Manuel Margot (ribs) on the disabled list, but Myers is aiming to return Friday and Margot could be back sometime next week. So, what happens then? Presumably, either Renfroe or Cordero will be sent to Triple-A to play regularly, since there wouldn’t be enough at-bats for everyone. I doubt they’d just demote Margot, their best position player last year, because he hit .159 in 11 games, but let’s not completely rule that out, especially if he were to come back and struggle for another couple of weeks. I have faith that Margot will be a top-30 fantasy outfielder this year if left alone. However, the Padres could gain an extra year of control with him if they were to send him down for a month.

- Adam Wainwright isn’t the only problem in the Cardinals’ rotation: Michael Wacha’s velocity spike has evaporated and he hasn’t impressed in any of his starts to date. His fastball is down two mph from last year, leaving him back in the 91-95 mph range, and while that might not be the end of the world, he’s also walking too many batters and struggling to get grounders. I don’t want to totally write him off, but given his rather modest upside, he’s droppable in shallow mixed leagues at this point. I’d put him in the 70-80 range among SPs now after ranking him 54th in the preseason.

- I was down on Paul DeJong coming into the year because of his ugly plate discipline numbers last year. Oddly enough, he’s swinging at far fewer pitchers this year, yet striking out a whole bunch more (while also not walking any more). It all seems pretty discouraging to me; it seems like he’s being more selective, but he’s not actually swinging at better pitches or making any more contact. He’ll still get his homers, but the batting average probably won’t be there and he’s a zero in steals, making him a weak bet in mixed leagues.

- The Rockies’ regular first baseman has a 69 OPS+ in 403 at-bats since signing with the team. The Rockies’ regular left fielder has a 79 OPS+ in 819 at-bats since signing with the team. If Ryan McMahon isn’t the answer to one of those problems, the team still has to figure out who else might be. Unfortunately, David Dahl has been limited to two games in Triple-A by a virus of some sort. It couldn’t hurt to give Raimel Tapia a chance to play over Gerardo Parra.

- While I’m not concerned about Ronald Acuna’s start, there isn’t much reason to call him up while he’s batting .139 with 14 strikeouts in 36 at-bats. Acuna undoubtedly would have made the Braves out of spring training if not for the service-time concerns, so it’d be understandable if he weren’t in the best frame of mind while riding buses in the minors. I don’t imagine the slump will last for long, and while I do like Preston Tucker, there shouldn’t be any blocking Acuna once he heats up.

- I still don’t know about the whole Jacob Barnes vs. Matt Albers issue, but I like what Craig Counsell is doing with Josh Hader, who has earned a pair of two-inning saves over the last week. Reserving Hader for the ninth would be a bad call, but using him like this and giving him the chance to finish games when he’s got it going is the right way to play it. Hader might not get more than a couple of more saves while Corey Knebel is out, but he’s a valuable fantasy property anyway. As for the righties, I still don’t trust Jeremy Jeffress at all, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he gets the next chance.

- Joc Pederson is quite possibly the Dodgers’ best outfield option against right-handed pitching, yet he’s started just five of the team’s 16 games thus far. His big problem is that the team has declined to give Chris Taylor any infield starts, even though there’s a Justin Turner-sized hole there (entering Tuesday’s game, the Dodgers had gotten sub-.600 OPSs from both second base and third base). I find that baffling; Taylor is a pretty good infielder and quite likely a better second baseman than a center fielder (though he is also a better center fielder than Pederson). Obviously, the Dodgers still have plenty to sort through. Besides the infield problems, Taylor and Yasiel Puig haven’t hit much. Logan Forsythe, who was a major liability while trying to play through shoulder problems, has joined Turner on the disabled list. I assume the team will eventually figure out it needs Pederson’s bat. It might also need the all-around game of Andrew Toles, who was off to a 12-for-26 start in Triple-A before going down with a hamstring injury.

- Josh Harrison figures to miss six weeks with a broken bone in his hand, giving Adam Frazier the starting job he would have had if anyone had wanted to trade for Harrison over the winter. Frazier won’t have the homers or steals to amass much value in shallow mixed leagues, but he can hit for average and score runs batting at the top of the Pirates lineup. He’s worth using in deeper mixed leagues.

- The Diamondbacks lack any great alternatives to step into the injured Taijuan Walker’s place in the rotation. Randall Delgado might have been an option, but he’s still down with a strained oblique. It’ll likely come down to Matt Koch or Braden Shipley. Shipley is off to a nice start in Triple-A, having posted a 1.56 ERA in 17 1/3 innings. I haven’t been impressed with his stuff in recent seasons (he lost something after emerging as a top prospect a few years ago), but he probably still has more upside than Koch, who would fit better as a middle reliever. I’d be scared to play either in an NL-only league initially.

- I’m not finding myself overly impressed by Dansby Swanson’s hot start; he has mediocre power and a mediocre contact rate, which suggests he’ll be a mediocre hitter again before long. It is good that he’s getting the ball in the air more frequently, but I still wouldn’t rank him among my top 20 fantasy shortstops.

Tuesday, April 17, 2018

The Chuck Natzy




Charlie Blackmon missed four games last week with right quad tightness. He’s trying to make up for lost time.

The two-time All-Star has now homered in each of his three contests since returning to action after going deep Monday in Pittsburgh. He took Tyler Glasnow deep in the Rockies’ 6-2 victory and also added a single and an RBI groundout.

Blackmon has homered seven times this season, a total bested only by Bryce Harper (who has 20 more plate appearances). All seven of those longballs have come on the road, although, in fairness, Blackmon has played just three games at home this season versus 10 on the road.

Blackmon’s power output has steadily increased since he became a regular in the big leagues, culminating a 37-homer showing in 2017. It’s obviously super early, but it’s certainly looking like “Chuck Nazty” is in for another robust home run total in 2018. Worth noting is that Blackmon entered Monday’s game with a flyball rate of 48.6 percent, which would be over 10 percentage points higher than his previous career high.




The center fielder will turn 32 in July and it’s looking like his running might continue to taper off. Blackmon was caught stealing on 10 of 24 attempts last season and is just 1-for-2 in stolen base attempts so far this year. While fantasy owners might not be getting the steals they used to out of Blackmon, they could wind up getting more RBI if manager Bud Black decides to keep the reigning National League batting title winner in the middle of the lineup.



Kiermaier Out Three Months

The disabled list is becoming a little too familiar for Kevin Kiermaier.

Kiermaier missed two months of action in 2016 with a fractured left hand and another two months in 2017 with a fractured right hip. He’s now slated to be absent for the next three months after being diagnosed with a torn ligament in his right thumb on Monday.

The two-time Gold Glove winner injured the thumb on a slide into second base Sunday. Initial X-rays came back negative, but Kiermaier still suspected something was amiss and an MRI confirmed his worst fears.

"I knew how my thumb was feeling, and the angle that it could go to that I've never felt or seen before," Kiermaier said. "I knew there was something that was extremely wrong."

Kiermaier balks at being labeled injury-prone, noting that each of his major injuries were freakish in nature. It’s a fair assessment on his part, but it’s of no comfort to his fantasy owners that got a .163/.250/.233 batting line out of him for 12 games before watching him go down with another ailment that will likely knock him out until after the All-Star break.

Kiermaier has 20/20 player written all over him if he could just stay on the field. He might have done it easily last season, as he had 15 home runs and 16 stolen bases over just 98 games. Now, he’ll obviously fall well short of those marks this season.

Mallex Smith is slated to see the bulk of the starts in center field while Kiermaier is on the shelf. He’s been playing regularly of late in left field but had faced the prospect of his playing time being threatened when Brad Miller (groin) returns on Friday. Now, he’ll have plenty of leash, and fantasy owners in need of speed should be interested. Smith went 4-for-4 at the dish Monday and is now hitting .409/.458/.545 over his first 49 plate appearances.

Smith has been caught on three on five stolen base attempts this season, but he’s swiped 34 bags in fewer than 550 career major league plate appearances. The 24-year-old stole 37 bases between the majors and minors last season and once had an 88-steal season on the farm. Smith’s batted ball data isn’t anything to write home about, and his average is due for a big drop when his BABIP normalizes, but he will run.




Harrison Hurting

The Pirates fell to the Rockies on Monday, but at 11-5 they remain one of the biggest early-season surprises. Unfortunately, they’re going to be without their leadoff hitter for a while.

Josh Harrison was struck on the left hand by a 96 mph Jose Urena fastball on Sunday, and on Monday it was revealed that he suffered a fractured fifth metacarpal. It’s the same injury that prematurely ended his 2017 campaign. He’s expected to be sidelined for the next six weeks. Ouch !

Harrison was scuffling over his last five games following a red-hot start, but he’s still already scored 12 runs and has notched a home run and a stolen base. The 30-year-old is known as a versatile defender capable of playing all over the field, but the Pirates have had him stick to second base so far this season.

Adam Frazier is similarly versatile and got the start at second base and in the leadoff spot in Harrison’s place Monday. The left-handed hitter figures to see most of the starts against right-handers while Harrison is sidelined.

Frazier doesn’t stand out in any area, but he can run a little bit and is a high-contact hitter who batted a solid .283/.347/.402 over the previous two seasons for the Pirates. Those in deep leagues might find him moderately useful. Sean Rodriguez likely will start at second base versus lefties, and recent call-up Max Moroff could be in the mix, as well.


American League Quick Hits: Didi Gregorius slugged two home runs in the Yankees' victory over the Marlins on Monday … Luis Severino allowed just one hit and one walk over six shutout innings Monday, striking out eight Marlins batters … James Paxton struck out seven over six frames of one-run ball in Monday’s win over the Astros … Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle has reported that the Athletics have reached out to Matt Chapman about a possible contract extension … Blake Snell limited the Rangers to one run in 6 1/3 innings and struck out nine in a victory Monday … Daniel Mengden struck out six across eight-plus frames of one-run ball in Monday’s win over the White Sox … Dallas Keuchel suffered a tough-luck loss in Seattle Monday, allowing two runs over eight innings while striking out six … Jurickson Profar will be monitored for concussion symptoms after he left Monday's game versus the Rays following a collision at second base with Mallex SmithMatt Duffy had to leave Monday’s game against the Rangers with a strained right hamstring and he could be headed to the disabled list … Nomar Mazara went 2-for-4 and hit a three-run homer against the Rays on Monday … Reynaldo Lopez struck out 10 while holding the A’s to two runs over six innings Monday …

National League Quick Hits: The Nationals are optimistic that Adam Eaton (ankle) will be activated from the disabled list when first eligible on Friday … Wil Myers (elbow) hopes to be activated from the disabled list on Friday in Arizona … Bryce Harper went 2-for-4 with a homer and three RBI in the Nationals' comeback victory over the Mets on Monday … Anthony Rizzo (back) will be activated from the disabled list Tuesday … Trevor Story went 2-for-3 with a three-run homer and a stolen base Monday in Pittsburgh … Jacob deGrom struck out 12 while being charged with three runs over 7 1/3 innings Monday versus the Nationals … The Brewers would like Christian Yelich (oblique) to get in 2-3 days of full pregame activities before activating him from the disabled list … J.T. Realmuto (back) could be activated from the disabled list as soon as Tuesday … Julio Teheran struck out nine across six innings of one-run ball in Monday’s win over the Phillies … Hyun-Jin Ryu allowed just one run and struck out nine over six innings in Monday’s win over the Padres … Manny Pina (calf) was placed on the disabled list Monday … The Cardinals activated Jedd Gyorko from the DL on Monday … Tests have cleared Victor Robles of any structural damage in his injured left elbow …