Prospects, forever prospects

Prospect rankings can be tricky.

Oh yeah, tell me about it.

That's not to say they can't be useful. On the contrary. There's a reason that everyone drops lists before, after and during the season. They can be extremely helpful in helping you sort out players you can pick up for the season or prospects that can help your dynasty club in the near or distant future.

It's just that not all prospect lists have a fantasy tilt, and some prospects are better bets to give you fantasy value, and some prospects are more likely to provide value in the real world than on a rotosheet.  What's a rotosheet ?  Google it, what I am ...an encyclopedia.

I thought I'd give some examples of both over the next two weeks, starting with some prospects that should be ranked higher on "real" prospect lists than fantasy. Please note: These prospects certainly have fantasy value, too. With some rare exceptions, any prospect that projects to be a regular in the majors or pitch in a rotation are worth taking a look at, of course.

Without further ado, here's a look at six prospects that have more real life value than fantasy.

Hitters

Sean Murphy, C, Oakland Athletics -- Murphy has made big strides with the bat since being drafted in the third-round out of Wright State in 2016. That being said, the reason why Murphy is considered a top 50 prospect by some is because of the defensive value he provides behind the plate. He has average power from the right side of the plate, and while he makes a lot of contact, a good deal of it is weak, keeping the hit tool from reaching that level. The fact that his double-plus defense gives him an excellent chance to be an everyday player is solid, but it's hard to imagine he'll provide a ton of offensive fireworks in Oakland.

Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates -- Give Hayes a ton of credit; the word "bust" was beginning to be used on the 2015 first-round pick, and to say that phrasing isn't being used anymore is an understatement. As for his fantasy value, however, there are some limitations that should give you at least some pause. The 21-year-old can certainly hit for average, but there are serious questions about his power, and since he's a lock for the corner infield, that could present issues. There's also a lot of value tied to his on-base percentage -- not always a fantasy category -- and his defense -- never a fantasy category. Hayes is certainly a quality fantasy prospect, but there's a great deal more "real life" value here.

Evan White, 1B, Seattle Mariners -- White has become one of the best prospects at first base in baseball, but he's nowhere close to one of the best fantasy options at the position. He is unlikely to ever hit for power, and while he certainly has a chance to hit for average, you'd really like more doubles and homers to go along with it if he's going to be in your lineup. A caveat here is that White has excellent speed for the position, so if he starts stealing bases, his ranking would obviously rise. He hasn't been running as a professional, however (four steals last year), so until he starts running/starts showing more pop, you will want to take a cautious approach.

Pitchers

Kolby Allard, LHP, Atlanta Braves -- Allard's profile is the definition of one who is going to be more successful in the MLB than it is in fantasy. That wasn't always the case, but because the left-hander has lost so much on his fastball (once up to 96, now sitting 88-90 mph), it's difficult to project many strikeouts. Take note kids: Velocity matters. Allard has a great chance to stick in a rotation because he commands that fastball and two other solid secondary pitches well, but he's always going to be at risk to be lit up because of the mediocre heater, and he just won't give you enough strikeouts to be more than a spot starter, in my estimation.

Justus Sheffield, LHP, Seattle Mariners -- This one is tough. I've been a big fan of Sheffield for a long time, and I think his fantasy value took a big step up after being trades to Seattle in the James Paxton Deal. I also think there are some limitations here that could give you long-term trouble. His fastball is a plus offering and there are two more above-average offerings here that can miss bats. My issue here is that the command went backwards last year -- though some of that has to do with experimenting with a new delivery -- and he hasn't always missed bats at an elite level in the minors. I think he has a high floor because of his profile and he'll be a member of my top 10 prospects for 2019 with good reason, but there are some long-term concerns about his role. At least in fantasy circles.

Jon Duplantier, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks -- A caveat here: If Duplantier ends up pitching as either a starter or a closer, there's a lot of intrigue here. The reason why the right-hander makes this list is because I'm not sure he's going to be either. He's going to turn 25 in July, and he's never thrown more than 136 innings in a season. Because of his injury issues that have followed him since college, he seems like the perfect candidate to be one a multi-inning reliever that bridges the gap to a closer. There's a ton of value on that in an MLB roster, in fantasy? You better miss a ton of bats. It's certainly possible Duplantier will with three plus pitches, but it's asking an awful lot.

From A to LA

A.J.  Pollack

If you predicted that A.J. Pollock would be the first free agent position player to receive more than three guaranteed years in a contract this offseason, please step forward and collect your prize.

Moving from one NL West team to another, Pollock has agreed to a four-year deal with the Dodgers. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported news of the deal while Buster Olney of ESPN.com passed along the contract details. Pollock will make $55 million over the first four years and there’s a $5 million buyout on a $10 million player option for a fifth year. It’s a creative structure aimed at giving the Dodgers some breathing room on the luxury tax. The deal also includes an opt-out after the third year based on plate appearance benchmarks.

Some Dodgers fans undoubtedly would have preferred the club to go all in on mega free agent Bryce Harper, especially as his market continues to be a mystery, but the club ended up going the more conservative route. Pollock turned 31 in December and has been dogged by injuries since his All-Star season in 2015, but he’s still a plus defensively and provides balance to a lefty-heavy Dodgers’ lineup.

If healthy, Pollock should be the regular center fielder for Los Angeles while Cody Bellinger projects to spend most of his time at first base while being mixed in at the corner outfield spots. Of course, Bellinger also provides an insurance policy in center field. The Dodgers traded Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp to the Reds in December, so that likely leaves prospect Alex Verdugo with an opportunity in right field. Joc Pederson is the best option in left field against right-handers, at least assuming he isn’t traded.

Pollock batted .257/.316/.484 with 21 homers, 65 RBI, and 13 steals over 113 games with the Diamondbacks last season. His injury history is a legitimate concern, but as noted above, the Dodgers have the flexibility to get by if Pollock needs to miss some time.

We can officially rule the Dodgers out for Harper, but that doesn’t mean they are done making moves. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported Thursday that the Dodgers are engaged in “intensive ongoing talks” with the Marlins regarding catcher J.T. Realmuto. Specifics aren’t known, but the Dodgers definitely have the sort of players who would make sense for the Marlins. Joe Frisaro of MLB.com wrote earlier this week that Dodgers prospect catcher Keibert Ruiz was a possible player of interest.

Relief Market Moving

With the calendar about to flip to February, we’re starting to see some bargain contracts in free agency. Asdrubal Cabrera (one-year, $3.5 million with the Rangers), Nick Markakis (one-year, $6 million with the Braves), and Drew Pomeranz (one-year, $1.5 million with the Giants) are three examples from this week. The latest, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, is reliever Brad Brach agreeing to a one-year deal with the Cubs worth at least $4.35 million. There’s a second year mutual option which could bring the total to $9.5 million.

Brach turns 33 in April and posted a 3.59 ERA and 60/28 K/BB ratio over 62 2/3 innings between the Orioles and Braves last season. His strikeout percentage has dipped from 29.6 percent to 20.8 percent over the past two seasons, but he finished 2018 strong and gives Cubs manager Joe Maddon another experienced late-inning option. That’s relevant with Brandon Morrow expected to miss the early part of the season following November elbow debridement surgery. As of now, Pedro Strop is the likely fill-in at closer.

Edwin Diaz is a difficult act to follow, but the Mariners appear to be zeroing in on his replacement at closer. As first reported by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the club has agreed to a one-year contract with right-handed reliever Hunter Strickland. Terms aren't yet available.

Strickland was non-tendered by the Giants in late-November after posting a 3.97 ERA and 37/21 K/BB ratio over 45 1/3 innings in 2018. He began the year filling in at closer with Mark Melancon sidelined and pitched quite well, but he broke his right hand punching a wall after a blown save in mid-June and ended up missing two months. He scuffled and showed diminished velocity after returning in August, which was enough for the Giants to move on despite him being projected to make only around $2.5 million via arbitration in 2019.

Strickland is still only 30 years old and boasts a 2.91 ERA for his career, so taking a chance on a bounceback is a reasonable strategy. He’s under team control through 2021 via arbitration, so the Mariners could have an interesting trade chip depending on how things play out. As if Jerry Dipoto needs incentives to make trades. 

We should see an avalanche of relievers come off the board very soon. Jon Heyman of Fancred reported Thursday afternoon that Sergio Romo, Shawn Kelley, and Ryan Madson are among the veteran arms “who are being heavily pursued.” Mark Feinsand of MLB.com writes that Kelley is deciding between three teams. As for Craig Kimbrel, easily the top reliever remaining on the market, it’s still crickets for now.




 

Castellanos Ready to Move On

With Nicholas Castellanos going into his walk year and the Tigers in rebuild-mode, it’s not hard to see where this situation is headed. This is one of those “when” not “if” scenarios, but if Castellanos has it his way, a trade would come sooner rather than later. Castellanos’ agent, David Meter, told Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press on Thursday that his client would prefer to be dealt prior to spring training.

The Tigers are under no obligation to grant Castellanos’ wish, as they could always wait until July’s trade deadline. Barring a surprise suitor, it sounds like he’ll stay put to begin the 2019 season. Tigers general manager Al Avila was surprisingly candid in his comments to 97.1 The Ticket on Thursday, saying that the market for Castellanos has been “very frustrating” and “there’s been no interest at this point.”

Castellanos turns 27 in March and is coming off a career-best year where he slugged 23 homers with a .298/.354/.500 batting line over 157 games. Unfortunately, his defense in right field takes away from his overall value. He’s the best trade chip the Tigers have, so they understandably want to hold out for a solid package of prospects, but it’s fair to wonder how far teams will be willing to go for someone who will be a free agent after 2019.

The Tigers and Castellanos recently avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $9.95 million contract.

Arenado

Quick Hits: According to the Associated Press, MLB is proposing going back to a 15-day disabled list as well as option time minimums (from 10 days to 15 days) for players … Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reports that the Rockies and third baseman Nolan Arenado are likely headed to an arbitration hearing next month in regard to his salary for the 2019 season … Jon Heyman of Fancred reports that the Astros “still have interest in bringing back” free agent left-hander Dallas Keuchel … Carlos Correa, who has an arbitration hearing scheduled for January 31, said Thursday that his back feels 100 percent …  Dan Hayes of The Athletic writes that Byron Buxton has added 21 pounds of muscle this offseason … The Yankees finalized their three-year, $23 million contract with reliever Adam Ottavino … The Astros and right-hander Chris Devenski have an arbitration hearing scheduled for February 5 … Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto confirmed Thursday that Sam Tuivailala (Achilles) is expected back in June … The Padres signed outfielder Boog Powell and catcher Chris Stewart to minor league contracts with invitations to major league spring training … The Tigers claimed Kaleb Cowart off waivers from the Mariners and plan to use him as a two-way player in spring training.

Roy Halladay - 2019 HOF Blue Jay - Homegrown Hero

Former Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay has been voted into the Baseball Hall of Fame.

Halladay, who died in a plane crash on Nov. 7, 2017 at age 40, will be inducted into the national baseball shrine in Cooperstown, N.Y., this July along with Mariano Rivera, Edgar Martinez and Mike Mussina.


Former Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay has been voted into the Baseball Hall of Fame.


Halladay, a two-time Cy Young Award winner, received 85.4 per cent of the vote by the Baseball Writers' Association of America announced Tuesday night. Eligible players need at least 75 per cent to be inducted.

Halladay spent 12 seasons with the Blue Jays from 1998-2009, pitching more than 2,000 innings and winning the American League Cy Young in 2003.

He represented Toronto at six all-star games — he appeared in eight overall — had three 20-win seasons and five with 200 or more strikeouts, and earned the NL Cy Young with the Phillies in 2010 in his first season in Philadelphia.

The towering right-hander signed a one-day contract with Toronto in December 2013 to retire as a Blue Jay.
Toronto retired Halladay's No. 32 on opening day of the 2018 season, four months after he died when the small sport plane he was piloting crashed into the Gulf of Mexico.
"The other day I was thinking how sad it is that he's not around to be with his family and enjoy this great moment," said Edgar Martinez, a former designated hitter with the Mariners. "It will be a moment that his family will be very proud of him and remember him and honour him so it's kind of bittersweet.
"As a player facing him, he was very difficult. ... I don't remember having a lot of success against him because it felt like it was always a tough at-bat."


"Unfortunately we don't have him with us but he was a tremendous competitor," Mariano Rivera said.

"Of the countless players that have worn the Blue Jays uniform, few have done so with the determination and elegance of Roy Halladay," Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro said in a release. "Today is a bittersweet day for our community and organization, as we remember a beloved pitcher, teammate, and family man, but we can take comfort in the boundless impact Roy had on Canadian fans nationwide and the game of baseball.

"On behalf of the Toronto Blue Jays organization and all of our fans, we congratulate Brandy, Braden, Ryan, and the entire Halladay family on this monumental honour."

Halladay amassed a 203-105 record and a 3.38 earned-run average and 2,117 strikeouts over 416 regular-season major league games and was 3-2 with a 2.37 ERA through five post-season starts, all with Philadelphia.

He became just the second pitcher in major league history to throw a no-hitter in the post-season, opening the 2010 National League Division Series with one against the Cincinnati Reds in the first playoff start of his career.

 He was a winner, and he usually finished what he started.

His games traditionally finished in under 2 hours, a rarity nowadays.

He was a Blue Jay.

He will be remembered, and honored always.

Sunny Skies in Cincy

Sunny Skies in Cincinnati.

On Friday afternoon, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that the Yankees and Reds were making progress on a potential deal that would send 29-year-old right-hander Sonny Gray to the Reds.

Jon Heyman of Fancred added fuel to the fire, indicating that the Yankees had shown interest in Reds’ prospects Shed Long and Tyler Stephenson. The Reds were reportedly reluctant to include Stephenson in the deal, so it sounds like the Bombers will wind up with Long, a competitive balance draft pick and perhaps an unidentified lower level prospect.

Long, a 23-year-old second baseman, was a 12th round pick of the Reds from the 2013 draft class. He hit .261/.353/.412 with 12 homers, 56 RBI and 19 stolen bases in 126 games at Double-A Pensacola in 2018. Long is a converted catcher who has developed into a bat-first second baseman. He is nearly ready for the major leagues but is blocked in Cincinnati by Scooter Gennett and Nick Senzel.

Not nearly the haul the Yanks were hoping for, but not too shabby.

Gray will make a $7.5 million salary in 2019 after going 11-9 with a 4.90 ERA and woeful 1.50 WHIP in 30 games (23 starts) last year for the Yankees. Based on those numbers we wouldn't expect Gray to net much of a return in trade value, but his xFIP was better at 4.10 and he owns a career ERA of 3.66 over six seasons.

The move to the National League, and a chance to be reunited with former college pitching coach Derek Johnson, should both help Gray’s fantasy outlook. Also, while he would be pitching half of his games in the Great American Ballpark, a noted hitters-haven, it’s basically a neutral move with him leaving Yankee Stadium.

The Reds are currently in an exclusive 72-hour negotiation window with Gray to try to work out a contract extension. If they are unable to do so before the end of the day on Monday, the Yankees could reopen trade talks with other interested teams including the Giants, Athletics, Brewers or Braves.

Rays snag Avisail Garcia

In a bit of an under-the-radar move, the Rays officially signed Avisail Garcia to a one-year, $3.5 million contract on Friday. The deal also includes incentives that could drive the contract as high as $6 million.

The former White Sox’ outfielder had a massive breakout in 2017 where he slashed .330/.380/.506 with 18 homers, 80 RBI and five stolen bases in 136 games. He floundered during an injury-plagued 2018 campaign in Chicago, but is still only 27-years-old and has plenty of upside remaining.

Garcia should find himself as the Rays’ everyday designated hitter, and should land a juicy run-producing spot in the middle of the Rays’ lineup. On the one-year pillow contract, and with motivation to prove himself, Garcia is an incredibly intriguing bounce-back candidate.

Garcia currently sports an ADP in the month of January of 437 in National Fantasy Baseball Championship drafts. That’s misleading for two reasons. Prior to being non-tendered by the White Sox, his ADP sat around 365 overall. Now, in a much better situation, his stock should soar from that spot, likely inside the top 300.

For savvy drafters, now is the time to profit. Drafters who are slaves to the current ADP will be looking at Garcia right around pick 400. If you snag him a round or two before then, there’s still ample room for profit, with enough upside that he could blow that valuation out of the water.

Dodgers eye Pollock

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported Saturday that the Dodgers had interest in free agent outfielder A.J. Pollock, then followed that up on Sunday by noting that the two sides were currently “in discussions” on a possible contract.

Pollock would provide the Dodgers with a right-handed bat to add to a left-handed-heavy lineup and allow them to play Cody Bellinger more at first base if that's what they'd prefer.

Pollock has averaged only 101 games and 402 plate appearances per season over the last six years due to wide array of injuries. While Pollock's injury history is a concern, Rosenthal correctly notes that the Dodgers could deal with his absence more easily than most clubs due to their depth and versatility.

The 31-year-old outfielder slashed .257/.316/.484 with 21 homers, 65 RBI and 13 stolen bases in 113 games with the Diamondbacks in 2018. The potential move to the Dodgers would hurt him from a power perspective, as Dodger Stadium would be a major downgrade for right-handed power, though hitting near the top of the star-studded Dodgers lineup could do wonders for his counting stats.

Pollock’s current ADP sits just outside the top 115 in mixed league drafts. If he were to sign with the Dodgers, it’s unlikely that his stock would change significantly.

Quick Hits: Jon Heyman of Fancred reports that there’s a mystery team in the bidding for superstar free agent Manny Machado, and they reportedly have the highest offer currently on the table…Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Dodgers have been discussing Joc Pederson in possible trades, and the White Sox are "one of clubs in those conversations."... The Jon Heyman of Fancred Sports reports that the Dodgers, Giants, Angels, Phillies and Rays are among the teams pursuing Josh Harrison… Twins signed free agent left-hander Martin Perez to a one-year, $3.5 million contract with a club option for 2020… Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic writes that the Cubs have "bandied about the idea of trading Ben Zobrist this offseason.".. Dan Hayes of The Athletic believes that Fernando Romero will wind up as part of the Twins’ bullpen during the 2019 season and “could play an important role”... 34-year-old left-hander Ricky Romero officially announced his retirement from professional baseball. He sported a 4.16 ERA across 801 ⅓ innings over five seasons at the big league level with the Blue Jays… The Rays designated Oliver Drake for assignment, again… Yu Darvish (elbow) expects to be ready for Opening Day… Kris Bryant (shoulder) is now fully healthy and has been taking batting practice at full strength since December 1… Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe notes that Chris Sale said his shoulder is fully healthy again… Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports the Cardinals' brass intends to visit Marcell Ozuna in the Dominican Republic to check on his recovery from offseason shoulder surgery… Jon Heyman of Fancred reports that the Giants have been gauging trade interest in third baseman Evan Longoria… Cardinals' general manager John Mozeliak indicated Saturday that Luke Gregerson (shoulder) has "not felt right" during his throwing program this winter… Jon Heyman of Fancred reports that the Phillies maintain interest in free agent third baseman Mike Moustakas… The Reds and Red Sox are among the teams interested in free agent right-hander Shawn Kelley…. The Angels officially signed Cody Allen to a one-year, $8.5 million contract. Allen also has the potential to earn an additional $2.5 million in incentives. He’s expected to begin the season as the Angels’ closer.

Big O signs with the Yanks

 

The Yankees’ bullpen was already a strength at the start of the day Thursday. Now it’s poised to be even better.
As first reported by Jeff Passan of ESPN, the Yankees have signed reliever Adam Ottavino to a three-year contract. Jon Heyman of Fancred hears that the deal will be worth $27 million guaranteed. It’s another impact move after the club already retained Zach Britton for three years and $39 million earlier this month.
Ottavino, a native New Yorker, enjoyed a huge walk year in Colorado with a 2.43 ERA and 112/36 K/BB ratio over 77 2/3 innings. His strikeout percentage was fourth-highest among pitchers with at least 70 innings pitched. Only Josh Hader and Edwin Diaz struck out more batters among relievers.
The 33-year-old Ottavino struggled big-time with his control in 2017 while posting a 5.06 ERA. In fact, his first-pitch strike percentage (46.9 percent) was the lowest among all pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched. Not ideal when you call Coors Field home. However, he improved that number to 60.2 percent in 2018. Ottavino carries an injury history, but there’s no doubting his stuff if healthy. Now that he's headed to the Bronx, surely nobody is going to ask him about his recent assertion that he'd strike out Babe Ruth "every time."


Aside from Ottavino and Britton, the Yankees are also locked and loaded with the likes of Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, Chad Green, Jonathan Holder, and Tommy Kahnle in their bullpen. That group struck out 538 batters in 2018. Good golly.   It’s hard to look at the exceptional depth of the Yankees’ bullpen and not think about the contrast with the defending World Series champion Red Sox. Joe Kelly moved on with a three-year, $21 million contract with the Dodgers and Boston appears unwilling to meet the asking price of closer Craig Kimbrel, so the team’s top late-inning relief options at the moment are Matt Barnes and Ryan Brasier. There’s still time to add, but the situation doesn’t inspire confidence.
There are still plenty of notable relievers on the market, even looking beyond Kimbrel. Brad Boxberger, Adam Warren, Greg Holland, Brad Brach, Justin Wilson, Bud Norris, and Sergio Romo are among them.

Allen to Angels
You’ll notice that former Indians closer Cody Allen wasn’t included in the list above and that’s because he’s reportedly on his way to the Angels. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes that it’s believed an agreement is in place for a one-year deal, pending a physical. Terms weren’t yet available as of late Thursday evening.
The market for Allen has been quiet after he struggled with a 4.70 ERA over 70 appearances in 2018. The 30-year-old saw decreases in velocity, strikeout percentage, and swinging strike rate while posting his highest walk rate since 2012 and giving up a career-high 11 homers. Despite that, Rosenthal writes that Allen was looking for an opportunity to close. The Angels would seem to be a good match on that end, as Ty Buttrey, Justin Anderson, and Cam Bedrosian are at the top of the depth chart at the moment. It should be Allen's job.

Allen entered 2018 with a 2.67 ERA over 386 appearances for his career and was among the league’s best closers from 2014-2017, so it’s hard to fault the Angels for gambling on a rebound. If he’s able to bounce back and re-establish his value, he could cash in nicely next offseason.

Machado Market
It’s mid-January and we’re still waiting on a resolution regarding top free agents Manny Machado and Bryce Harper. Things at least got interesting for a few hours on Wednesday when Buster Olney of ESPN reported that Machado’s offer from the White Sox checked in at seven years and $175 million, a shockingly low number given expectations going into the winter. The report was quickly refuted and even resulted in a scathing statement from Machado’s agent, Dan Lozano.
If anything, this episode functions as a reminder that many of the reports during the offseason are being leaked by someone with an agenda. It could be from a team source or an agent, but part of the goal is to influence negotiations. Fans are understandably champing at the bit for some action on these big names, but the reports we see need to be taken with a grain of salt. The same can be said for Lozano’s statement, really.

With that out of the way, we know that the White Sox and Phillies have been linked most prominently to Machado, with the Yankees potentially lurking in the background. It’s crazy that this would be the extent of the market for an elite player going into his age-26 season. Harper’s market has been similarly limited, with the White Sox and Phillies also in the mix there. What is going on here? We’re no closer to an answer just yet.

Quick Hits: Jon Heyman of Fancred reports that the Yankees are “working hard now” on a trade involving right-hander Sonny Gray, though David O’Brien of The Athletic hears that the Braves aren’t interested … Heyman also reports that the Yankees are getting calls on relievers Jonathan Holder and Tommy Kahnle … The Diamondbacks have reportedly agreed to a one-year, $4.25 million contract with former Mets infielder Wilmer Flores, who is expected to play second base while Ketel Marte will make the move to center field … Dustin Pedroia (knee) has resumed running in preparation for the 2019 season, though Red Sox president baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said he feels comfortable with Eduardo Nunez and Brock Holt as insurance at second base … Alex Reyes (lat) has already been throwing over the last couple of weeks at the Cardinals’ spring training complex in Jupiter, Florida … Red Sox president baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told reporters on Thursday that it’s unlikely Carson Smith (shoulder) is ready for the start of the season … The Nationals signed left-hander Vidal Nuno to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training … Royals left-hander Eric Skoglund was suspended 80 games by MLB on Wednesday for PED violations … Former Rangers closer Shawn Tolleson has retired following another setback from Tommy John surgery … The Cubs claimed left-hander Ian Clarkin off waivers from the White Sox …

ERA sleepers for 2019

It’s never too early to prepare for your draft, and some of us draft fiends are already setting our draft dates for 2019 or even drafting now. The hot stove league is just taking shape, but it’s still a fun time to look toward the 2019 fantasy baseball season.

For the fifth year in a row, I’ll be breaking down category sleepers at each of the 5x5 roto categories. The first four articles in the series were batting average, WHIP, home run, and strikeout sleepers. This week, we’ll be looking at ERA sleepers. Over 10 weeks, I will be providing a list of sleepers for each 5x5 roto category (BA, HR, RBI, R, SB, W, ERA, WHIP, K, SV).  Since the hot stove league still has a long way to go this offseason, for the next few weeks we will focus on players in categories that are less based on opportunity and more based on skill.  Other roto categories that are more dependent on opportunity, supporting cast, and batting order spot (R, RBI, SB) or team and manager (W, SV) will be discussed in the latter half of the 10-week series.

Before reading any further, it’s important to note the definition of a sleeper. In this case, it’s a player who will exceed draft day ADP AND projections in a particular category. The players are broken down by mixed league sleepers and single league sleepers.

Mixed League Sleepers

Alex Cobb, SP, Orioles

There should be no sugarcoating the fact that Cobb was destructive to many fantasy teams in 2018. After signing a four-year, $57 million contract in spring training, the right-hander completely imploded with the O’s. Despite entering last season with a career 3.50 ERA in 115 starts, he produced a 4.90 ERA in 28 starts. He also had the worst K/9 of his career (6.0) and struggled to keep the ball in the park at Camden Yards.

So why the optimism? Two words: The thing. More specifically, Cobb’s changeup affectionately referred to as “the thing” came back late last season. That’s a significant development, as Cobb seemingly lost the pitch after having Tommy John surgery in 2015. After posting a 6.41 ERA in 17 starts before the All-Star break last season, Cobb produced a 2.56 ERA in the second half, even while working through blister issues. His FIP didn’t support the outstanding ERA results at 4.28, but it was also still significantly better than what we saw from Cobb in the first half. He also produced the best average velocity of his career last season, adding some hope that the strikeout rate will start to increase to his pre-surgery 7.7 K/9 that he had from 2011-2014. While it’s difficult to expect the sub-3.00 ERA that Cobb had twice in Tampa Bay, he is highly capable of being at least a league-average starter again and a useful piece in deeper mixed leagues.


Jon Gray, SP, Rockies

It was a frustrating 2018 season for Gray and his fantasy owners. The Rockies right-hander’s ERA went from 3.67 in 2017 to 5.12 last year, and he was even demoted to the minors at one point. There was much controversy over that demotion because of his ERA metrics. Despite a 5.76 ERA at the time of the demotion in late June, Gray had a 2.93 FIP and 3.24 SIERA at the time. Gray’s ERA after returning improved to 4.37, though his ERA metrics were actually far worse due to a dropping strikeout rate.

Following the season, Gray admitted that he was pitching through injury. Regardless of the injury, Gray was one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball during 2018. His full-season FIP (4.08) was a full run lower than his final ERA, and his SIERA was even better at 3.68. In fact, Gray has had a sub-4.00 SIERA in all four of his major league seasons and more than one strikeout per inning in each of his last three seasons. Many fantasy owners prefer to avoid Rockies starters due to Coors Field, and the risk is certainly present due to Gray’s home confines, but he has a history of success and comes in at a very reasonable 199 ADP in NFBC currently. The strikeout rate still shows his immense upside.

Joe Musgrove, SP, Pirates

Musgrove found his footing while pitching out of the Astros bullpen in 2017, posting a 1.44 ERA and 31/5 K/BB in 31.1 innings. The Pirates hoped those results would continue into starting after they acquired Musgrove in the Gerrit Cole trade last offseason, but Musgrove didn’t make his first start of 2018 until late May due to shoulder soreness. It was mostly worth the wait, as Musgrove had a career-best 1.8 BB/9 and 4.06 ERA in 19 starts, and the ERA metrics were even better with a 3.59 FIP and 3.93 SIERA.

Musgrove’s season ended with an abdominal injury that required surgery, but he’s expected to be ready for spring training. Not only do Musgrove’s ERA metrics from last season show the likelihood of better results, but his minor league track record is phenomenal with a 2.86 ERA, 8.6 K/9, and 1.1 BB/9. Musgrove already appeared to be a great WHIP option after posting a 1.18 WHIP last season, and the ERA upside makes him an all-around terrific buy that can be had outside the top 200 picks, according to NFBC ADP.


Andrew Suarez, SP, Giants

Among Giants rookie starting pitchers last season, Dereck Rodriguez got most of the attention. He was worthy given the results, but Suarez also pitched better than the 5x5 results appeared. For the season, the lefty went 7-13 with a 4.49 ERA, and 1.30 WHIP, but he finished with a 4.30 FIP and 4.07 SIERA, showing impressive command (2.89 K/BB ratio). Suarez’s arrival wasn’t highly anticipated despite an outstanding minor league track record, with a 3.11 ERA and 3.75 K/BB ratio over four seasons.

It is somewhat concerning that major league hitters seemed to catch up with Suarez during the second half, as he produced a 3.94 ERA and 8.3 K/9 in the first half compared to 5.17 ERA and 6.1 K/9 after the break. Part of that can probably be explained by Suarez simply wearing down, as his velocity was slightly down overall in the second half. Still, there is a lot to like here on top of the ERA metrics, with a solid 51 percent groundball rate, adding hope that he will do a better job of keeping the ball in park going forward. Suarez isn’t even currently in the top 500 picks in NFBC ADP, so he comes as a cheap flier for deep mixed leagues.


Single League Sleepers

Erick Fedde, SP, Nationals

Although Fedde was the 18^th overall pick in the 2014 draft by the Nats, he didn’t have the fastest path to the majors. The UNLV alum didn’t get his first promotion until late in the 2017 season and still only has 14 major league starts. During those starts, his ERA is a hefty 6.44, so it’s not as if fantasy owners are in a hurry to collect those numbers. There is reason to believe that better results are on the way. The right-hander had a 3.56 ERA and 3.81 K/BB ratio in his minor league career and has consistently been a strong groundball pitcher, helping him keep the ball in the park.

While the high groundball rate has continued into the majors with a 62 percent rate in his 2017 debut and a 53 percent rate last season, it hasn’t shown in his ability to keep the ball in the park with Washington. That does seem likely to change. Fedde showed increased velocity last season, and his ERA metrics were far better than his actual ERA. Fedde’s 4.71 FIP and 4.27 SIERA were far more impressive than his 5.54 ERA last season, and there’s no reason to think Washington has soured on their former first-round pick. As it stands now, Fedde is on the outside looking in on a rotation spot after the team signed Patrick Corbin and Anibal Sanchez this offseason. Nevertheless, it doesn’t take much imagination to project 20-plus starts for Fedde in 2019 with the injury histories of Sanchez, Stephen Strasburg, and Joe Ross.


Dustin May, SP, Dodgers

A third-round pick out of high school in 2016, the 21-year-old May has emerged as one of baseball’s best pitching prospects. That’s pretty much par for the course in the Dodgers farm system, which has routinely produced elite pitchers in recent seasons, with Walker Buehler being the most recent example. A 6-6 power pitcher, May resembles Buehler in one key way that should help his ERA in the future. May has shown a great ability to provoke groundballs in the minors, with a groundball rate above 50 percent at almost every level where he has pitched thus far. He did that last season between High-A and Double-A, along with an 8.3 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9, to help him produce a 3.39 ERA in 132.2 innings. Those results are especially impressive given the hitter’s leagues where he pitched.

With only six starts at Double-A, it’s almost a certainty that May will remain in the minors at the start of 2019. The major league rotation depth that the Dodgers possess currently also makes May’s path to helping this season a bit more difficult, but certainly not impossible. May has already shown the control to move quickly with a 2.0 BB/9 or better every pro season thus far. It’s not a stretch to project May’s arrival after the All-Star break, and at that time he would be a popular NL-only addition, if not better.

David Paulino, P, Blue Jays

Paulino is a pitcher I’ve mentioned in the past while with the Astros. Injuries and a suspension have sidetracked his career, but I’m not ready to give up on him just yet. Acquired by Toronto in the Roberto Osuna trade, Paulino has missed time over the last several seasons due to elbow and shoulder injuries, as well as a PEDs suspension in 2017. He made only 14 appearances during all of last season, including seven relief appearances with Toronto, but nearly all of his minor league history is as a starter. His minor league track record is simply dominant, with a 2.62 ERA, 10.0 K/9, and 2.5 BB/9, though he’s had limited work at Triple-A due to the injury and suspension disruptions.

The big right-hander did look very good late last season out the bullpen for the Blue Jays (1.35 ERA in 6.2 innings), averaging 93 mph on his fastball. Toronto seems to be in a bit of a rebuild as they wait for their elite hitting prospects to get established, and have some spots in their rotation available, at the time of this writing. If Paulino is finally able to avoid injuries, the great command and success in the minors shows not only upside for AL-only leagues but possibly even mixed leagues at some point in 2019.


Ranger Suarez, SP, Phillies

Among the Phillies top pitching prospects, Suarez is rarely mentioned. The 23-year-old lefty got his first taste of the majors late last season after a very good season between Double- and Triple-A at age 22, posting a 2.75 ERA in 21 starts. A pro since age 16, Suarez has produced a sub-3.00 ERA in five consecutive seasons and has an amazing 2.27 ERA in 451 minor league innings. The recipe for success has been simple, with an above average groundball rate hovering near 50 percent for most of his pro career that’s helped him prevent extra-base hits and a 2.0 BB/9.

There is legitimate concern about Suarez’s ability to pitch in the majors due to his lack of an out-pitch. His K/9 was only 6.6 in the minors, and often pitchers with that profile struggle to find themselves in the majors. That concern certainly isn’t unfounded, but there’s also something to be said for Suarez’s ability to keep the ball down. Enyel de los Santos is likely ahead of Suarez on the Phillies prospect depth chart, but the organization’s lack of pitching moves during the offseason to this point is good news for Suarez’s opportunities at some point in 2019. He’s a deep league flier or in-season pick up in NL-only leagues that could contribute some quality innings for ERA and WHIP.

Kyler prefers pigskin

Murray Declares for NFL Draft

Athletics first-rounder Kyler Murray announced Monday that he has officially declared for the NFL Draft, but that doesn't necessarily shut the door on Murray playing baseball. The Athletics reportedly could entice the Heisman Trophy winner into choosing baseball by giving him a lucrative MLB contract, although the smart money remains on him ultimately picking football. Murray is expected to be a first-round pick in the NFL Draft, if so he would be the first player ever chosen in both the first round of the MLB draft and the NFL draft. The Athletics took him with the ninth overall pick of last year's draft and would not get any draft compensation if he decides to give up baseball for football. If Murray doesn't announce his intentions before the NFL draft it could harm his chances of being selected early because teams would not want to risk a precious early pick on a player who might not play for them. For this reason we should hear a final statement explaining his plans in the coming weeks.

It is not out of the question that he could play both sports. Bo Jackson won the Heisman Trophy while at Auburn University in 1985. He played for the Royals and the Los Angeles Raiders for several years. He would play the full baseball season and then report to the Raiders about halfway through their schedule. Jackson continued that arrangement until he suffered a hip injury in an NFL game that ended his football career, although he continued to play baseball for a few more years after that. He is the only player to play in both an MLB All Star game and an NFL Pro Bowl game. Deion Sanders played both baseball and football as well. He is the only player to play in both a Super Bowl and a World Series. Sanders generally played baseball until the NFL season started, then left for the gridiron -- but he would come back for the baseball playoffs if his team made it there. More recently, outfielder Brian Jordan was a first round pick by the Cardinals in 1988 and while he was working his way through the minor leagues he moonlighted as a safety for the Atlanta Falcons. When he reached the major leagues he gave up football. Maybe Kyler Murray could do something similar. The A's will retain his rights as a baseball player if he opts for the NFL. Now he has to give back the money.

Phillies Dreaming

According to USA Today's Bob Nightengale, the Phillies "have visions" of signing outfielder Bryce Harper, starting pitcher Dallas Keuchel, and closer Craig Kimbrel. They must have a ton of cash saved up. Harper will cost at least $300 million, Keuchel is estimated to get a four-year $70-80 million contract and Kimbrel is looking for a deal in the $80 million range for five years. That is close to half a billion dollars for three players. They are also in the running to sign megastar Manny Machado, although the Phillies feel like they have a better shot to snare Harper after their weekend meeting in Las Vegas went so well.

Kluber rumor mill still going strong

Dennis Lin and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic report that the Indians, Padres and Reds have discussed a three-team trade that would send Corey Kluber to Cincinnati. The Padres would want to acquire third base prospect Nick Senzel from the Reds in the trade, but Lin cautions that Cincy "does not want to move" the top prospect and "no deal is close" at this time. San Diego is on the lookout for a third baseman and it appears this is just one of the scenarios they've kicked around. Lin doesn't mention what the Padres would send to the Indians in that leg of the three-way deal. The Padres have been connected to Kluber a few times this offseason, but Lin says it would be to flip him to another team. Previous reports indicated the Padres were not willing to trade their top five prospects (SS Fernando Tatis Jr., LHP Mackenzie Gore, C Francisco Mejia, 2B Luis Urias and RHP Chris Paddack). Even if that is true the Padres still have a lot of good trade chips in their loaded farm system, including pitchers Adrian Morejon, Michel Baez, Logan Allen, Cal Quantrill and Anderson Espinoza along with hitters like Buddy Reed, Josh Naylor and Tirso Ornelas.

Previously-announced Deals Now Official

 Brewers signed C Yasmani Grandal to a one-year, $16 million contract with a $16 million mutual option for 2020. Jon Heyman of Fancred Sports says the buyout of the option is $2.25 million, so Grandal is guaranteed at least $18.25 million. It is not much different than the one-year, $17.9 million qualifying offer he rejected from the Dodgers. Grandal is moving to a better environment for hitters and may be able to improve upon his .241/.349/.466 slash line with 24 homers and 68 RBI from a year ago.

 Mets signed INF Jed Lowrie to a two-year, $20 million contract. The deal was finalized Tuesday evening after Lowrie passed the necessary pre-signing physical. The versatile veteran is expected to play all around the infield for the Mets and he should regularly hit near the very top of their lineup. Lowrie, 34, posted a cool .801 OPS with 23 home runs and 99 RBI over 157 games last season with the Athletics. The home runs and RBI were both career highs by very wide margins.

 Yankees signed 2B DJ LeMahieu to a two-year, $24 million contract. LeMahieu is expected to play all over the infield for the Yankees, although given Troy Tulowitzki's injury history there's a good chance Gleyber Torres will wind up sliding over to shortstop and LeMahieu will settle in at his customary second base (at least until Didi Gregorius returns). LeMahieu has huge home/away splits in his career and most observers are expecting his stats to experience a drop-off now that he won't be playing half his games in Coors Field. That being said, Yankee Stadium is a good place for him to land. He will still be playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark and he will be in a loaded, high-scoring lineup that will provide him with more RBI and run-scoring opportunities than he had in Colorado last year.

 Twins signed RHP Blake Parker to a one-year, $1.8 million contract. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the deal could max out at $3.2 million if he's on the active roster for 160 days. He remains under team control for 2020. Parker was non-tendered by the Angels at the end of November after posting a 3.26 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 70/19 K/BB ratio across 66 1/3 innings in 2018. He has closing experience and should take over a late-inning role with his new club.

Around the League

 Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Rangers remain in contact with free agent relievers Cody Allen and Adam Ottavino. In a later tweet, Rosenthal also mentions Adam Warren as a potential target. If Allen or Ottavino did come to Texas, they could win the closing job over incumbent Jose Leclerc even though Leclerc put up better numbers in 2018 than either of them did. Leclerc had a 1.56 ERA with 12 saves and 85 strikeouts in 57 2/3 innings. He allowed just one home run last year and has given up only five dongs in 118 1/3 career innings. Allen saved 27 games last year but his ERA skyrocketed to 4.70 in 70 games. He does have a ton of closing experience, having saved 149 games in the last five years. The veteran Ottavino had a 2.43 ERA with six saves and 112 strikeouts in 77 2/3 innings with the Rockies last year.

 Jon Heyman of Fancred reports that things have begun to "ramp up" in Sonny Gray trade talks. Heyman hears that six teams are believed to be involved in talks, including the Reds. Some other teams connected to Gray include the Braves, Padres, Brewers, Athletics, and Mariners. Gray is coming off a disappointing 4.90 ERA over 23 starts last season. The Yankees and Gray recently avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $7.5 million contract for 2019, but it would be a surprise if he sticks around.

 Bruce Levine of 670 The Score reports that Manny Machado's offer from the White Sox remains at seven years. There's some contrasting information out there at the moment, as Bob Nightengale of USA Today backs up Levine's report of seven years. However, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reported late Sunday that Chicago offered eight years to Machado, with Z101Digital’s Hector Gomez adding that it's worth $250 million. Either way, Machado remains a free agent and surely wants something closer to 10 years and $300 million. The Phillies are believed to be the other top contender for Machado's services, although Bryce Harper is their first choice. The Yankees' interest in Machado is believed to have lessened after they signed DJ LeMahieu and Troy Tulowitzki in recent days.

 Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Giants have re-signed Derek Holland to a one-year, $7 million deal with a club option for 2020. Holland will receive a $6.5 million base salary in 2019 while the $6.5 million club option for 2020 carries a $500,000. His base salary for 2020 could increase depending on the number of starts he makes in 2019. This includes $7 million for 24 starts, $7.5 million for 28 starts, and $8.5 million for 32 starts. All in all, it's a nice value for the 32-year-old Holland, who surprised with a 3.57 ERA and 169/67 K/BB ratio in 171 1/3 innings this past season. One year prior in 2017 he went 7-14 with a heinous 6.20 ERA in 29 games (26 starts) for the White Sox.

 Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Rays are "closing in" on Avisail Garcia. It'll be a one-year, $3.5 million deal, with Jon Heyman of Fancred Sports adding that the pact could be worth as much as $6 million if Garcia hits his incentives. Garcia was non-tendered by the White Sox earlier this offseason, as they weren't keen on giving him a raise in his final year of arbitration eligibility. In Tampa, the 27-year-old figures to be in the mix for playing time in right field and also in the designated hitter spot. Garcia posted a .885 OPS in 2017, but he fell off to a .719 OPS in 2018 and was limited to just 93 games because of injury. Much of his 2017 success can be pinned on a lucky .392 BABIP that fell to a slightly unlucky .271 in 2018.

 Leonys Martin (illness) told Mandy Bell of MLB.com that he now feels 100 percent. Martin fought a life-threatening bacterial infection last August, but he was cleared for full baseball activities back in November and should have no restrictions going into spring training. The 30-year-old projects to begin 2019 as the starting center fielder with Cleveland. He batted .255/.323/.425 with 11 homers, 33 RBI and seven steals in 84 games for the Tigers and Indians. He has lived on the fringes of fantasy usefulness throughout his career, with stolen bases being by far his best fantasy category.

 Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that Curtis Granderson fully intends to continue his playing career in 2019. Granderson turns 38 in March and batted .241/.351/.431 with 13 home runs over 403 plate appearances between the Blue Jays and Brewers in 2018. He is sixth among all active players with 332 career home runs behind Albert Pujols (633), Miguel Cabrera (465), Edwin Encarnacion (380), Nelson Cruz (360) and Jose Bautista (344).

Quick Hits: Jon Heyman of Fancred reports that left-handed reliever Marc Rzepczynski is holding a showcase for MLB teams on Tuesday. Rzepczynski was brutal in 2018, posting a 6.97 ERA and 2.52 ERA over 23 appearances between the Mariners and Indians. ... Phillies signed OF Lane Adams to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training. The 29-year-old has hit .269/.340/.478 over 151 plate appearances with the Braves between 2017-2018. ... Red Sox signed LHP Daniel Schlereth to a minor league contract. ... Yankees designated INF/OF Tim Locastro for assignment... According to Robert Murray of The Athletic, the Orix Buffaloes of Japan's Pacific League have purchased the contract of right-hander Tyler Eppler from the Pirates. ... Rangers claimed OF John Andreoli off waivers from the Mariners. The 28-year-old hit .230/.284/.262 over 67 plate appearances at the major league level in 2018. ... Angels designated RHP Parker Bridwell for assignment. ... Diamondbacks signed LHP Tyler Matzek to a minor league contract. ... Angels acquired RHP John Curtiss from the Twins for INF Daniel Ozoria. Curtiss, 25, holds a 7.20 ERA in 17 career appearances at the MLB level. Ozoria, 18, batted .195/.248/.220 with zero home runs in 216 plate appearances last year between two different rookie-level affiliates of the Angels.

 Kyler Murray elects the NFL