Mike Trout is an Angel for Life

The Angels have agreed to a record-shattering contract with superstar outfielder Mike Trout, according to ESPN's Jeff Passan. Trout stands to earn more than $430MM over a twelve-year term.

 It will not include any opt-outs, per Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times.
It’s a contract befitting Trout’s status as a player of historic excellence. The peerless center fielder was two years from free agency, playing on the remainder of his earlier six-year extension, but decided to commit the rest of his prime to the organization that drafted and developed him.
Trout was already due $66.5MM for the 2019 and 2020 seasons under the previous deal negotiated by agent Craig Landis. It seems, then, that he’s now set to take down an average annual value in excess of $36MM over the new decade of campaigns covered by this agreement. Trout will turn 40 during the final season (2030) of the deal.

There are some eye-popping figures in there, to be sure, but frankly they pale in comparison to Trout’s own productivity on the ballfield. Since his first full season of play, in 2012, Trout has vastly outproduced every player in the game with a tally of 64.2 fWAR and 63.8 rWAR. Others have approached and even bettered Trout in single seasons, but none of his contemporaries has maintained anything approaching his nearly unfathomably consistent level of top-end output.

Viewed in that light, there’s an argument to be made that this deal actually underpays Trout. It’s important to bear in mind that he was still two years shy of free agency, which he’d have reached at 29 years of age owing to his earlier contract. In that regard, Nolan Arrenado had more leverage relative to his own abilities. But it’s notable that Arrenado's new contract checks in with a $33.4MM AAV for the seven new seasons that it added to his existing season of control. Unsurprisingly, Trout’s new deal easily tops the previous record for total guarantee that was recently set by Bryce Harper and the Phillies.

It is the Stro Show for Opening Day

Two weeks before camp breaks, the Blue Jays have announced their pitching plans for opening day against the Detroit Tigers.
And sure enough, it will be Stro Time.
Indeed, all the work paid off for Marcus Stroman to achieve his first goal of the 2019 season. The two-a-day workouts, the yoga, the mobility drills, the time spent in his own personal hyperbaric chamber, the visit with Duke basketball coaching legend Mike Krzyzewski … it all helped get his body and mind right the for spring training.
The rest followed naturally.


Prior to his fourth straight strong outing, Stroman was named the Blue Jays opening day pitcher for the second time in his career.The first was in 2016, when he threw eight innings en route to a 5-3 victory over the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field.
This one will be at home, Mar. 28. This one is something he wanted very badly.
“It’s an honour,” Stroman said after giving up one run and two hits while striking out six over 4.1 innings against the Orioles in Sarasota on Wednesday. “Something you strive for. Something that I always kind of pride myself on. I’m just excited to feel the electricity, the energy of Toronto, of Canada, when I get out there on the mound.
“I’ve pitched in some pretty big moments before,” he added. “I’m not shy of the moment. I think I thrive off energy and emotion, so I’m excited. I can’t wait to be out there.”
Stroman, who will become the 10th pitcher to draw multiple opening day assignments for the franchise, has anxiously awaited a chance to get his career back on track.
Last year, shoulder and blister problems kept him to just 102 innings, or half of what he pitched the previous two seasons.
He also went 4-9 with a 5.54 ERA — numbers he’s in a hurry to forget.
“I’m ready to pitch,” said Stroman, “regardless of where I am in the rotation. Like I said, I put a huge emphasis on getting back to where I was, and I’m there. So regardless of when you give me the ball, I’m going to go out there and have that mentality to dominate.”
The decision between Stroman and Aaron Sanchez was not an easy one for manager Charlie Montoyo, pitching coach Pete Walker and GM Ross Atkins.
“Stroman is the right guy,” Montoyo said when making it official.
Said Walker: “Every time you’ve got two guys like Sanchez and Stroman, obviously when they’re healthy, as far as I’m concerned, they’re as good as there is out there. I think Sanchey might have been a click behind early in camp, and gave him the extra live BP. That’s about the main reason.
“But they’re both certainly capable of doing that and holding on to that top spot in the rotation. Once the season starts it doesn’t matter.”
Montoyo said he talked to Sanchez about the decision before it was announced.
“Whatever I do, I always think as a player,” said Montoyo. “So that’s why we talked to Sanchez, to make sure he knows we were going to give it to Stroman. He’s fine.
“I did talk to people before. It’s almost like when I was in triple-A and I’d tell you you’re going up to the big leagues, and then I’ve got to talk to somebody else who’s not very happy (it wasn’t him being promoted) that he didn’t get the shot. It’s the same way here. You’ve got to communicate.”
Saying Clay Buchholz will not be ready to start the season, Montoyo has pencilled in a rotation that, after Stroman, has Matt Shoemaker second, followed by Sanchez, Ryan Borucki and Clayton Richard.
“I like the fact of splitting Stroman and Sanchez, because they’re kind of the same type of pitchers … sinker-ballers and stuff,” said Montoyo. “So I want to have somebody in between that’s different, and Shoemaker’s the guy that can do that.”

Strike One Mr. Roboto

Get ready for strikes by robots.
No, overworked machines aren’t walking out in a labour protest.


Computers will be used for ball/strike calls starting April 28 in the independent Atlantic League, where the distance between home and first will be shortened by three inches. The ground between the mound and home plate will lengthen by about two feet for the second half of the season beginning July 12.
The 60-foot-six-inch distance between the front of the pitching rubber and the back point of home plate has been standard since 1893, but Major League Baseball reached a three-year deal to experiment in the Atlantic League, an eight-team circuit that occasionally produces big leaguers.


Plate umpires will wear earpieces and be informed of ball/strike calls by a TrackMan computer system that uses Doppler radar. Umps will have the ability to override the computer, which considers a pitch a strike when the ball bounces and then crosses the zone. TrackMan also does not evaluate check swings.
“The beauty of baseball is that it’s not foolproof. You’ve got to hit a round ball with a cylindrical bat square, and then you’ve got to get it past people,” said Joe West, who umpired his first big league game in 1976. “The game is typically American. It’s always somebody else’s fault when they lose — and usually it’s us.”
MLB has evaluated its umpires since first starting to install a QuesTec system in 2001 that umpires initially criticized as being inaccurate. Questec was used at a maximum of 11 ballparks in 2008, its final year.


A PitchF/x system, a partnership of MLB Advanced Media and Sportvision, was the basis of evaluations from 2009-16, and the TrackMan system was tested during the final year of that span. TrackMan has been used to evaluate umpires since 2017.
West, who has umpired more than 5,000 big league games and is on track to break Bill Klem’s record in 2020, said the 2016 test was far from perfect.
“It missed 500 pitches in April, and when I say it missed 500 pitches, that didn’t mean they called them wrong. They didn’t call them at all,” he said

In addition, bases will become 18-inch squares in the Atlantic League, up from the 15-inch squares that have been standard since 1877. That will in effect cut the distance from the front of home plate to the front of first base from 87 feet, nine inches to 87 feet, six inches. The 90-foot measurement between bases is from the back of the plate to the back corner of first and third along the foul line.
Other changes for the season:

• Infield shifts will be restricted by requiring two infielders to be on each side of second base when a pitcher releases his pitch. Infielders also will be prohibited from setting up on the outfield grass.

• Each pitcher must face at least three batters or complete the half-inning, unless injured.

• Between inning breaks will be cut from 2 minutes, 5 seconds to 1:45.

Mound visits are banned, except for pitching changes or medical issues.

The Extension is Coming

Sign Here ?

It is the beginnings of a new age in major league baseball, and it has to do with giving players extensions.

Cardinals signed RHP Miles Mikolas to a four-year, $68 million contract extension.

The shiny new deal comes with $15.75 million salaries for 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023, along with a $5 million signing bonus that he can tack onto his already-locked-in $8 million salary for the 2019 season. Mikolas was brilliant in his first year in St. Louis, delivering an 18-4 record, 2.83 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 146/29 K/BB ratio across 200 2/3 innings. If he ups the strikeout rate a bit this year, which he would seem capable of doing, he can be a front-line fantasy starter. The 30-year-old right-hander will take the ball for the Cardinals on Opening Day against the Brewers.
  
Yankees signed OF Aaron Hicks to a seven-year, $70 million extension.
 

The deal is now official. According to the announcement from the team, there's a club option for an eighth year in 2026. The upcoming free agent class doesn't have much to offer in center field, so the Yankees didn't want Hicks to get away. The 29-year-old has thrived during his time in New York and is now locked in for the long-term.

 Mike Trout will then consider the best way to say no. Rosenthal reports that the deal would cover his 2021-2030 seasons, meaning they'd cover him for his 29-to-38 years. While that would be the largest contract in the history of North American sports, it's tough to imagine that Trout would say yes to this; even with Manny Machado and Bryce Harper having to wait until the end of February to get their paper. The Angels are going to have to pony up more than that if they're going to keep the best player in baseball from testing the market.

 Dallas Kuechel would have resigned an extension, but the Astros saw a decline in his fastball, and choose not to. Adam Jones , at 33, would have been happy to re sign with the Orioles for another 3 yr term, but alas, they choose to move forward towards another 100 loss season with Cedric Mullens II.

All in all, the extension is getting pretty popular in MLB these days. Players have sen that the grass is not always greener hitting free agency. Ask Craig Kimbrel of the World Series Champion Boston Red  Sox, they have made there only offer to Kimbrel, who contemplated taking a year away from the game. Careful Craig, absence may make the heart grow fonder, but out of sight out of mind might apply better.

My bet is that by the time Spring  Training rolls around next year, Mike Trout will not be the only one that has signed an extension. Mookie Betts, Xavier Bogearts among others.

Harper's Bazaar

Well, they did it. The Philadelphia Phillies signed Bryce Harper to a 13-year, $330 million contract, reported with no opt-outs, opt-ins, options, opt-arounds, or any other sort of contract-related shenanigans. The Phillies have been circling this offseason in their diaries for years, the winter that a flood of awesome free agents would hit the market and the team could splash some cash and add a build-around star or two.
The plan largely went as designed. The Phillies went about their rebuilding business in a disciplined and careful fashion, seizing an opportunity or two as they popped up along the way (for example, a depressed market for Jake Arrieta and the availability of Jean Segura in a trade). Not all the free agents who hit free agency this winter did so in as exciting a manner as expected — players like Josh Donaldson and Dallas Keuchel saw their stocks drop, and Clayton Kershaw didn’t even test the market — but Bryce Harper and Manny Machado still tested the waters, with both expecting to end up with contracts near or exceeding $300 million in total value, and $30 million a year.
It was actually conceivable that the Phillies would end up with both Harper and Machado, though this bit of free agent fan fiction didn’t quite come to pass. Machado never seemed as excited about the possibility of going to Philadelphia as fans hoped even though he would have been just as useful in Philadelphia as Harper, given that the great Maikel Franco breakout appears not to be happening. With Machado gone to the Padres — who would’ve thought that two years ago — Harper was the team’s last real chance to spend that “stupid money” they were promising.
And it’s not actually stupid.
Bryce Harper is most likely to play right field for the Phillies, with Andrew McCutchen in left, and Odubel Herrera the long-term incumbent in centerfield. ZiPS was more keen on Nick Williams than Steamer was, but only to the tune of .256/.308/.448, which comes out to a 1.4 WAR, assuming 543 plate appearances. Williams, or whatever combination of Williams and Aaron Altherr or Dylan Cozens you can concoct, was the stopgap until the Phillies found something better and something better they’ve found.
ZiPS doesn’t have the back years of the contract for Harper at the same level of detail as Machado, but less a function of ZiPS thinking Harper will age poorly and than it is the fact that a lot about Harper remains speculative. He’s not a player next to whom you can simply write six or seven WAR a year in permanent marker. Harper likely has greater upside than Machado in that he could very well become an eight-win player a year, something both ZiPS and I agree on. But he’s also more likely than Machado to be a yearly two-win player over the course of his contract. Thirteen years is an extremely long time, after all. The fact remains that Harper still only has one of those crazy MVP seasons everyone thought would be yearly occurrences when he broke into the league to his name.
The Phillies have largely protected themselves from these outcomes by not including an opt-out clause for Harper. Opt-outs are essentially player options by a different name. If the Phillies could know with 100% certainty that Bryce Harper would average four wins a year, they probably wouldn’t mind including opt-outs in the contract. But there’s a lot we don’t know about how good Bryce Harper will be long-term, and an opt-out would leave the Phillies paying for the downside risk while losing Harper early if he displays the upside he’s capable of. At least this way, they’re sure to enjoy that upside.


We project Harper to be worth approximately $289 million over the course of his contract, with almost all that value over the first ten years of the deal. Given that the Phillies are a competitive team, likely matching their best seasons with Harper’s prime, ten years, $330 million would be a perfectly reasonable move for the Phillies to make. And if ten years, $330 million is a reasonable contract, then $330 million with Harper throwing in three additional years as a gratuity certainly would be.
On a team level, ZiPS comes in with Harper as roughly a three-and-a-half to four win upgrade for the Philadelphia Phillies in 2019. These wins are very likely of the high-leverage variety given the dynamics of the NL East. Right now on the FanGraphs Depth Charts, which don’t (yet) reflect the effects of the Bryce Harper signing, four of the NL East’s five teams project to win between 83-90 games. The Phillies aren’t adding generic wins; they’re adding wins that, especially in 2019, will very likely play a large part in determining the team’s fate. Teams will (and should) pay a lot more for win 85 than win 65 or win 105, and the Phillies are almost certainly cognizant of that.
To get a better look at the 2019 odds, I’m using the ZiPS simulator, with the up-to-date ZiPS projections and default depth charts reflecting those on FanGraphs. (As an aside, since I’m in charge of maintaining the depth charts now, you’ll tend to see more agreement between the FanGraphs standings and the  standings from here on out.) First off, let’s check out the divisional standings as of this morning.

Kershaw Shoulda Drama

Shoulder inflammation.

All that for some shoulder inflammation.

Sirens were sounded late last week when news got around that Clayton Kershaw had been shut down after a "discouraging" bullpen session, but the news on Sunday was more encouraging when Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said soreness in his left shoulder was the cause of Kershaw's troubles. Kershaw reportedly responded well to the few days off and will play catch on Monday.
“It’s better now than later,” Roberts said. “So we have plenty of time to address this, reset, and see where it takes us. But we’re hopeful. ... Just talking with Clayton and the training staff, there’s no cause for concern.”

That doesn't mean that the southpaw is out of the woods yet, but the secrecy surrounding the ailment in the days immediately following the troubling bullpen session led some to fear he had a recurrence of the back issues that have plagued him in recent years, or some other more worrisome development. The left shoulder isn't an ideal place for an injury, but some inflammation -- possibly caused, according to Roberts, by trying to throw too hard in hopes of reclaiming some lost velocity -- is on the low end of the concern spectrum.

One thing of interest will be to see how the past week affects Kershaw's draft stock, which was already deflated after a 2018 season in which he posted a 2.73 ERA in 26 starts. Even if Kershaw still makes his Opening Day start as Roberts expects, the negative media piled on top of the already bruised perception could lower the 30-year-old's draft-day cost even more. His current NFBC ADP of 37 ranks him 13th among pitchers, behind teammate Walker Buehler, among others.

For their part, Roberts and Kershaw aren't among those panicking.

“He’s in a good place,” Roberts said. “He feels good. And I think that he understands that it’s a process and we’re all on the same page where we don’t want to rush it back. If we’re going to take a few days to take a step back, let’s take advantage of it.”

Kang Announces Presence in Third Base Race

Jung Ho Kang has missed plenty of time the past two years.

He started trying to make up for it Sunday.

The Pirates third baseman, who has been limited to three games since the end of the 2016 season due to off-field legal issues, blasted a pair of solo homers in his Grapefruit League debut Sunday. His first came off Marlins starter Trevor Richards in the second inning, and he hit his second off Hector Noesi in the fourth.

“I prepared well during the wintertime,” Kang said after the game. “That actually helped a lot to keep a good feeling and good shape and strength and everything.”

Clearly.

It's an uphill battle for Kang this spring, as the past two years have seen a lot change in Pittsburgh in his (mostly) absence. The trade of Gerrit Cole before the 2018 season brought third baseman Colin Moran to hold down the hot corner, and Ke'Bryan Hayes -- who also homered twice Sunday, including a walk-off grand slam -- has risen quickly through the ranks to be recognized as a top-100 prospect in the game.

Kang has always possessed serious offensive chops, though -- he hit 21 homers in 103 games in 2016 -- and a strong spring could force the Pirates' hand. If he does hit his way into regular playing time, Kang could become a mixed-league relevant corner infielder with his power.

Harper Sweepstakes Drawing To A Close?

The Bryce Harper-to-the-Phillies smoke is still just that, but there's been no shortage of said smoke in recent days.

Phillies owner John Middleton flew out to Las Vegas on Saturday to meet with Harper's team, and the negotiations dragged on into the night -- perhaps even including Middleton's plane leaving without him. (Or maybe not; #sources ran wild Saturday.) At one point, USA Today's Bob Nightengale tweeted there was "optimism" that a 10-year deal would be finalized "by Monday afternoon."

Other reports from MLB Network insider Jon Heyman suggested there were multiple teams still involved, though. The Giants are believed to be interested, and the Padres were floated as a possible suitor even in the wake of the Manny Machado signing.

Monday is now upon us, and with the calendar turning to March this week, it would seem we'll know something sooner than later. Then again, we've said that before.

Quick Hits: Luke Voit went 2-for-3 with a three-run home run and four RBI in Sunday's Grapefruit League win over the Rays. Voit knocked in Tyler Wade with an RBI single in the first inning before launching a three-run dinger in the fourth. For those who saw Voit as a member of the Yanks last summer this is nothing new, as he mashed 14 home runs with a .333/.405/.689 batting line in 39 regular season games following a July trade from the Cardinals. Whether that's an even remotely sustainable pace is a question on the minds of lots of forecasters and fantasy players this spring, but if given the chance, we're confident the 28-year-old can do some serious damage in Yankee Stadium again in 2019 ... Matt Chapman (thumb, shoulder) could make his Cactus League debut as soon as Tuesday. Chapman is being slow-played this spring following offseason thumb and shoulder surgeries, but he's coming along well and isn't far behind. Barring a setback, he'll be ready to roll by the time Opening Day comes around ... Brandon Nimmo (shoulder) is slated to make his Grapefruit League debut on Tuesday in the designated hitter spot. Nimmo is still a bit limited from a throwing perspective as he works his way back from some right shoulder soreness, but he's participating in all other activities without issue. It's unclear when he will be cleared to play the outfield in games, but it doesn't sound like it will be long ... Hernan Perez racked up seven RBI in the Brewers' Cactus League rout of the Rangers on Sunday. Perez slugged a three-run homer off Rangers left-hander Yohander Mendez in the top of the first inning and then laced a bases-clearing three-run double off right-hander Zach McAllister in the top of the third. Perez, 27, is poised to serve as a super-utilityman this season in Milwaukee and doesn't carry much draft-day appeal in that role, though an injury somewhere on the Brewers' depth chart could quickly change his fantasy outlook ... Max Kepler homered twice in a Grapefruit League loss to the Red Sox on Sunday. Kepler hit a pair of solo blasts in the game, the first off Sox starter Ryan Weber and then again in the second inning against someone named Dedgar Jimenez. Name value of the opposing pitchers aside, it's a good start to the spring for the 26-year-old Kepler, of whom big things are expected by many this year ... Madison Bumgarner was charged with six earned runs over one-plus innings in his Cactus League debut Sunday versus the Cubs. Bumgarner pitched a 1-2-3 first inning, but he gave up five hits and struck David Bote near the helmet with a pitch before getting lifted with no outs in the top of the second. It's far too early in the spring to freak out about stat lines, but Bumgarner is under the microscope in Giants camp as he enters his final year under team control. The 29-year-old ace is San Francisco's biggest trade chip ... Yadier Molina (knee) caught a bullpen session on Sunday. It's the first one he's caught this spring as he eases back into things following a cleanup surgery on his left knee in December. Molina isn't expected to catch in Grapefruit League games until mid-March but is fully expected to be ready to go by the time Opening Day rolls around ... The Red Sox are targeting March 6 for Dustin Pedroia's (knee) Grapefruit League debut. It's a very tentative date at this point. Pedroia has been eased into things this spring after he missed virtually all of last season following multiple setbacks with his surgically-repaired left knee. Obviously, the 35-year-old is a major health question mark at this point, but the Red Sox are hopeful that he will be ready to play second base on Opening Day.

Manny becomes a Padre

The wait is finally over. Manny Machado has found a landing spot.

As first reported by Jeff Passan of ESPN, the Padres have signed the 26-year-old superstar to a 10-year, $300 million contract (MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand had the financials first). There is an opt-out after the fifth year, when Machado will be 31. 

It’s the richest single free agent contract in the history of North American sports, though Bryce Harper will now aim to surpass it. Giancarlo Stanton signed a 13-year, $325 million deal with the Marlins back in November 2014, but that was a contract extension.

Machado also drew reported interest this winter from the White Sox, Phillies, and Yankees, but it seems the Padres simply out-bid the competition here. They also shelled out the biggest contract of the 2018 offseason, a seemingly-ill-advised eight-year, $144 million pact with first baseman Eric Hosmer.

San Diego is generally considered one of the best places to live in the United States and our hats got off to the Padres for stepping up in a winter that has seen most MLB teams tighten their purse strings, but the fantasy fallout here is mostly negative, at least for 2019. Petco Park has become a little more power-friendly than when it first opened -- portions of the wall were moved in five years ago and it ranked 16th among the 30 major league stadiums in home runs allowed last season -- but the environment still leans pitcher-friendly and Machado probably isn’t going to match the career-high-tying 37 home runs that he generated between the Orioles and Dodgers in 2018.

 He will probably also take a hit in a couple of other teammate-dependent counting stats as he joins a Padres team that finished 28th in both runs scored and team OPS (.677) in 2018.

But the Padres’ roster is improving -- they boast three of the top-30 position-player prospects in baseball in Francisco Mejia, Luis Urias, and Fernando Tatis Jr. -- and they could be a postseason contender as soon as 2020 if some of their better pitching prospects develop quickly into impactful major league starters. Machado figures to play third base primarily for the Friars, with Urias covering the shortstop position until Tatis Jr. is deemed ready.

The formerly low-payroll Padres are suddenly building a behemoth.

Francisco Mejia