Jump Ball

Openly flirting with a lovelorn fan base in Montreal, the Tampa Bay Rays have a clear message as they pursue the possibility of playing home games in both Montreal and their current home in St. Petersburg, Fla.:
We’re going to have an open marriage, or we’re getting a divorce.
“Unless they agree to allow (the Rays) to look into this … the team is gone,” a person with knowledge of the club’s plan said.
Contractually obligated, for now, to play their home games at Tropicana Field through 2027, the Rays are suggesting the only way to save baseball in the market is to stay half the time.


At meetings in New York this week, Rays principal owner Stu Sternberg received permission from fellow Major League Baseball owners to explore a plan that would have the Rays play roughly their first 40 home games in Florida to start the season before wrapping up the rest of the home schedule in Montreal.
Government officials in the Tampa-St. Petersburg area now must determine whether the Rays are bluffing and whether potentially building a reduced-cost stadium for a team playing just 40 games a season is any more appealing than the other proposed stadium deals for the Rays that have failed for a standard 81-game season over the last decade.

Potentially, the Rays could play in new stadiums in both markets, but numerous hurdles would need to be cleared, including getting permission from the players union, which would have to consider the strain on players calling two different countries home.
The Players Association had no comment on Thursday.

“The news definitely surprised me, waking up to that text,” Rays center fielder Kevin Kiermaier said in Oakland. “We were talking on the bus today — it’s weird to think about splitting games.
“Once spring training ends, I know I’m staying in a house and many hotels throughout the year. Now to sit here and think about living in a place for the first part of the season and then moving everything for the second half, it’s wild. … If this were to happen, you’re asking a lot of guys to get a lease for three months then go find a new one.”
Taxes would rise considerably from what players pay in Florida, Rays player rep Tyler Glasnow pointed out.
At least in spirit, the timeshare idea gives hope to many baseball fans in Montreal, which lost the Expos to Washington D.C. after the 2004 season. But the Rays are not sold on Montreal as a viable option beyond a half-time arrangement — creating a situation where the whole of the two-city plan is greater than the sum of its parts. Part of the impetus here for the Rays is a sense they need an answer sooner rather than later on where their home(s) will be beyond 2027. Nashville, Tenn., Portland, Ore., Las Vegas and San Antonio are prospective destinations.
Funding will probably determine everything, and the Rays could be asking for something that the people of the greater Tampa area won’t go for.
The Rays hope that a schedule where they play games in Florida early in the regular season, when the weather isn’t as hot as July and beyond, could mean that a roofless stadium could be built in Florida at a cost of around $600 million, a source with knowledge of their thinking said. That’s a reduction in cost of roughly $300 million to $400 million from the initial estimate for a domed park. The stadium, which could be in St. Petersburg or Tampa, would be proposed as a small (likely to seat around 27,000 people), multi-purpose park. Other attractions would be part of the selling point.


So, do the Rays mean it? Or is this just a ploy?
Sternberg is scheduled to speak on Tuesday.
“Love it. Yeah, wouldn’t it be kind of cool?” former Rays manager Joe Maddon said of the split-season idea. “Let’s do a little ‘European Vacation’ in the middle of the summer, head north of the border. It sounds really groovy, actually. I’ve never been to Montreal, but I’ve heard so many wonderful things about it. Um, I don’t see it ever happening.”
The language in the Rays’ lease at The Trop is firm: Permission to play home games elsewhere would have to be granted by the City of St. Petersburg. So the city has legal grounds to stand in the way of the Rays exploring another home until the current lease expires. The team is preparing a lobbying effort.
The Rays, too, understand they’re at the city’s mercy. What the club is banking on, though, is a realization from the city that if it plays hardball, the team is out the door.
The city has concerns the Rays may be gone anyway.
In a market that hasn’t looked viable for two decades, the Rays entered Thursday with an average of 14,545 tickets sold at home games in 2019, worse than every team but the Marlins. The Rays receive a huge amount of revenue-sharing dollars, affecting ownership across the league. After years of wrangling, MLB and the Rays seem to have reached a point where they’re wondering what they have to lose. A few more fans?
The Rays realize that Florida officials likely would not grant permission to play home games in Montreal if there is no renewed commitment to stay in Florida. Allowing the Rays to play elsewhere, only to leave at the earliest point they could, wouldn’t help the Tampa area, where the Rays remain bound.

The mayor of St. Pete, Rick Kriseman, indicated on Thursday that he’ll do everything in his power to keep the Rays through 2027.
“I want to be crystal clear: The Rays cannot explore playing any Major League Baseball games in Montreal or anywhere else for that matter prior to 2028,” Kriseman said, “without reaching a formal memorandum of understanding with the City of St. Petersburg.
“Ultimately, such a decision is up to me. And I have no intention of bringing this latest idea to our city council to consider. In fact, I believe this is getting a bit silly.”
Kriseman is scheduled to speak to media again on Friday.

MLB commissioner Rob Manfred noted that anything could happen once the respective parties engage. But whether the city is open to talking at all under these circumstances — which include a public overture to another city and a suggestion that half of the baseball schedule in St. Petersburg is already out the window — remains to be seen.
The language from the 1995 deal that the Rays are working against:
“Neither the club nor any of its respective parties, principals, directors, officers, employees, owners, or agents will enter into, initiate or conduct any agreement or negotiations (directly or indirectly) for the use of any facility other than the Dome for the Home Games of the Franchise.”
There are some limited exceptions, including for a major disaster, which the Rays do not yet qualify as.
Well, there it is , the city of Tampa making it quite clear it's intentions.

What will become of the franchise ? Who wants this team ? Who deserves this team ?

Scherzer breaks his schnazz . AKA his nose

Mad Max

The Nationals and Phillies were rained out for the second consecutive night on Tuesday, but that bizarre occurrence was relegated to a minor footnote, because Nationals’ ace Max Scherzer suffered a broken nose when he fouled a ball into his face while trying to lay down a bunt in batting practice earlier that afternoon. The good news for fantasy owners is that a CT scan came back negative and he isn’t expected to miss any significant time. However, the Nationals have not said anything official about his status. At this point, it seems unlikely that Scherzer will take the mound for his regularly scheduled start in the second game of Wednesday’s twin billing. However, if there was one pitcher on the planet who would be undeterred by a broken nose (and willing to pitch through pain) it’s Scherzer. The 34-year-old righty has been arguably the most durable workhorse in the game over the last decade, making at least 30 starts in every season during that span, dating back to the 2009 campaign. He simply doesn’t miss starts.

Nationals manager Davey Martinez told reporters that he still expected Scherzer to start one half of Wednesday's doubleheader against the Phillies, but that statement came prior to the rainout and official diagnosis of a broken nose. Veteran southpaw Patrick Corbin, who was originally slated to pitch on Monday, will take the mound for the front-end of the doubleheader, but it remains to be seen what the Nationals’ elect to do in the nightcap. They have several options. If they decide that Scherzer could use an extra day of rest, which seems like the obvious course of action here, it’s likely that the assignment will go to either Erick Fedde or spot starter Austin Voth, who is expected to be called up from Triple-A Fresno to serve as the 26th man. Fantasy owners should stay tuned for further updates on Scherzer, but there’s a strong possibility that he’s ready to go in the series finale on Thursday.

Pete Pummels Braves

On a night in which reigning National League Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom was utterly sensational, striking out 10 batters over 8 1/3 innings of two-run ball, it was rookie sensation Pete Alonso who stole the spotlight. The 24-year-old slugger went 4-for-4 with a two-run homer, a pair of doubles, three RBI and three runs scored in the Mets’ - blowout win over the division-rival Braves on Tuesday. He also walked twice, reaching base safely in all six of his plate appearances in the contest. He got the Mets on the board in the third inning with an RBI double, one of his two doubles on the night, and clobbered a mammoth 426-foot two-run homer off Braves starter Julio Teheran in the fourth inning. Alonso has certainly lived up to the lofty preseason prospect hype, delivering top-of-the-scale 80-grade light-tower power in his first exposure to major-league pitching. He’s up to 24 round-trippers on the season and owns a sublime .274/.359/.624 triple-slash line to go along with 46 runs scored and 57 RBI. He’s already cemented his status as a legitimate four-category fantasy superstar and has a realistic shot at eclipsing the 50-homer plateau this season. To put that in context, only four hitters have accomplished that feat since 2010. He’ll be the unquestioned centerpiece of the Mets’ offense for years to come and a likely late-first, early-second round selection in fantasy drafts next spring.

Minnesota Marathon

Max Kepler delivered a walk-off single in the bottom of the 17th inning to propel the Twins to a 4-3 victory over the Red Sox. The 17-inning affair lasted a grand total of five hours and 45 minutes. The two teams combined for 32 hits, stranded 30 base runners, used a grand total of 18 pitchers and threw 487 pitches in this marathon contest. The two teams went into extra-innings tied at two runs apiece. Mookie Betts launched a solo homer -- his 12th of the season -- to put the Red Sox ahead in the 13th inning, but Max Kepler, who entered the game as a pinch-hitter in the sixth inning and finished 3-for-5 with three RBI, responded with a game-tying solo shot in the bottom of the frame to keep the Twins alive. Considering how much these bullpens were taxed, there is a lot of pressure on Wednesday’s starters Eduardo Rodriguez and Kyle Gibson to soak up some innings. No matter how you look at it, this was easily the craziest game of the 2019 campaign so far.

Cincinnati Quashes Controversy

Reds manager David Bell expressed confidence in closer Raisel Iglesias after pulling him in favor of Michael Lorenzen to close Monday's game against the Astros. The 29-year-old right-hander was summoned in the eighth inning to attempt to preserve a one-run lead and secure a five-out save. Iglesias managed to work around a walk and a wild pitch to escape the eighth inning, but got wild again in the ninth. He issued a leadoff walk to pinch-hitter Myles Straw before bouncing back to retire Alex Bregman. With the tying run on-base, and Iglesias already at 21 pitches (10 strikes) Bell elected to turn the ball over to Lorenzen, who got Michael Brantley to line out to center field and whiffed rookie sensation Yordan Alvarez to end the contest. “We’re just trying to do whatever we can to give us our best chance to win. Raisel’s done it before, he’s going to do it again. He’s a great pitcher. He’s going to be ready next time,” said Bell after Monday’s game.

When a nearly identical situation presented itself against the Astros on Tuesday, Iglesias was once again summoned to protect a one-run lead in the eighth inning. He whiffed Yuli Gurriel and Robinson Chirinos to escape the jam created by lefty Amir Garrett. Instead of coming back out for the ninth inning to attempt to complete the five-out save, Bell once again turned to Lorenzen, this time to face the bottom of the Astros’ lineup. He managed to retire the side in order to secure his fourth save of the season. Despite the odd events in this series, fantasy owners shouldn’t draw any significant conclusions. Iglesias remains firmly entrenched as the Reds' primary closer. However, they aren’t afraid of using him (and Lorenzen to a greater extent) in a non-traditional manner. He made some noise about his abnormal usage patterns, complaining to reporters that the team was using him “horribly wrong” in early May. The Reds have clearly made an effort to scale back his portfolio, using him in a more traditional one-inning closer role ever since, but they still want to use him in high-leverage, multi-inning situations outside of the ninth inning. This is a situation worth monitoring moving forward, but it doesn’t look like there will be a significant change anytime soon in Cincinnati.

AL Quick Hits: Adalberto Mondesi left Tuesday night's game against the Mariners with right groin tightness. … The Indians are optimistic that Mike Clevinger (ankle) will be able to make his next scheduled start Saturday against the Tigers. … Joey Gallo (oblique) could return to the Rangers' active roster next Tuesday for the start of a series against the Tigers. … Jose Altuve (hamstring, knee) will be activated from the 10-day injured list on Wednesday. … George Springer (hamstring) is set to begin a minor league rehab assignment Thursday with Double-A Corpus Christi. … Aaron Judge (oblique) homered Tuesday in his fourth rehab game with Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. … Tyler Glasnow (forearm) threw another successful bullpen on Tuesday. … Blue Jays manager Charlie Montoyo said Monday that Ken Giles (elbow) is expected to return from the 10-day injured list when he's first eligible. … Domingo German (hip) began throwing off flat ground on Monday. … Luis Severino (shoulder) hopes to start throwing from a mound on either June 25 or 26th. …  Twins placed Byron Buxton on the 10-day injured list with a right wrist contusion. … Blue Jays placed Justin Smoak (quad) on the 10-day injured list. … White Sox placed Welington Castillo on the 10-day injured list with a strained left oblique. … Yoan Moncada (back) remained out of the White Sox starting lineup Tuesday. He’s expected to return on Wednesday. … Yandy Diaz was held out of the Rays' lineup Tuesday because of a hamstring issue. … Giancarlo Stanton went 0-for-4 in his return from the injured list on Tuesday. … Whit Merrifield went 3-for-4 with a pair of home runs, a career-high six RBI to lead the Royals to a blowout victory over the Mariners. … Eloy Jimenez socked a go-ahead two-run homer to propel the White Sox to a win over the crosstown-rival Cubs. … Jose Ramirez walloped a three-run homer to power the Indians to a rout of the Rangers. … Oscar Mercado swiped a pair of bases in the victory. … Luke Voit went 3-for-3 with an RBI in the Yankees’ win over the Rays … Edwin Encarnacion launched his 22nd homer of the year, his first in a Yankees’ uniform, in that one .. Tyler Skaggs struck out six batters over 7 1/3 innings of one-run ball in a win over the Blue Jays. … Hansel Robles converted his 11th save in that one. … Shane Greene netted his 21st save in the Tigers’ win over the Pirates. … Alex Bregman slugged his 20th homer in the Astros’ loss to the Reds. … Ramon Laureano went 4-for-5 with a three-run homer in the A’s blowout win over the Orioles.. … Hunter Dozier (chest) went 2-for-5 with a double, two RBI, and a run scored Tuesday in his second rehab game with Double-A Northwest Arkansas. … Hunter Pence (groin) could return from the 10-day injured list when first eligible. … Joe Palumbo will start for the Rangers against the Indians on Wednesday. … Jordan Zimmermann (elbow, glute) is expected to start for the Tigers against the Pirates on Wednesday. … Andrelton Simmons (ankle) will begin a minor league rehab assignment Tuesday with the Angels' rookie league affiliate. … Jordan Montgomery shut down a bullpen session Tuesday in Tampa after experiencing discomfort in his surgically-repaired left elbow. … The Angels have requested release waivers on Cody Allen.

NL Quick Hits: Craig Kimbrel worked a scoreless inning for Triple-A Iowa on Tuesday. … Dodgers manager Dave Roberts noted Tuesday that Joc Pederson will play first base at some point this season. … A.J. Pollock (elbow) could begin a minor league rehab assignment over the All-Star break. … Kyle Hendricks has been diagnosed with a right shoulder impingement. … Jay Bruce (hamstring) remained sidelined Tuesday against the Nationals. … Caleb Smith (hip) will make a rehab start before returning to the Marlins rotation. … Scooter Gennett (groin) was scratched from a scheduled rehab game on Tuesday due to wet field conditions at High-A Dayton … Brandon Nimmo (neck) will be shut down completely from baseball activities for the next month. … Mike Moustakas was removed from Tuesday night's game against the Padres due to a left hand contusion. He’s expected to remain out of the Brewers’ lineup on Wednesday. … Logan Allen tossed seven scoreless innings to earn a victory over the Brewers in his major-league debut. … Kirby Yates recorded his major league-leading 26th save in the Padres’ win over the Brewers. … Clayton Kershaw struck out six batters over seven shutout innings in a win over the Giants. … Nolan Arenado went 3-for-4 with a homer and three RBI in the Rockies’ lopsided win over the Diamondbacks. … Charlie Blackmon notched his fifth consecutive three-hit game in that one. … Jordan Yamamoto whiffed seven batters over seven scoreless frames in a win over the Cardinals. … Jack Flaherty fanned eight batters over seven innings of three-run ball in a loss to the Marlins. … Josh Bell launched his 20th homer in the Pirates’ loss to the Tigers. … Jeff McNeil went 3-for-5 with a solo homer, stolen base and three runs scored in the Mets’ lopsided win over the Braves. … Freddie Freeman swatted his 20th long ball in the losing effort. … Mets placed Jeurys Familia on the 10-day injured list with a Bennett lesion in his right shoulder. … Adam Wainwright (hamstring) will return to the Cardinals' starting rotation on Thursday against the Marlins. … Tyler Chatwood will start for the Cubs on Thursday against the Mets. … Brandon Morrow (elbow) has begun throwing from a distance of 135 feet. … Rockies designated Mike Dunn for assignment.

National League potential trades

With about six weeks left until the trade deadline, contending teams are already in heavy discussions with their GM counterparts in an attempt to improve their teams. The playoffs, and home-field advantage, could be decided on the transaction wire just as much as by on-field play.

Here are five trades I’d like to see National League contending teams make now:

Milwaukee Brewers
Trade Partner: Cleveland Indians

The Brewers continue to have a strong need for an ace and acquiring Trevor Bauer from the Indians might be their best play. Bauer is controllable through 2020 and would really enhance the Brewers’ chances of winning the NL Central division or give them a much better chance of winning a win-or-go-home wild-card game come October. In return, they would have to sacrifice their best prospect — and one of the best young hitters in all of minor-league baseball — in former first-round pick, second baseman Keston Hiura. The Indians are in need of retooling, improving their offense and acquiring cheaper, more controllable players.
With Mike Clevinger coming back to the rotation and Corey Kluber hopefully not that far behind, the Indians do have a rotation that can continue to keep them at least competitive in the AL wild-card race even without Bauer. Hiura is major-league ready and would fit in nicely near the top of the Indians’ lineup and provide some much-needed offense both short- and long-term.
Bauer, 28, is 4-6 this year with a 3.71 ERA and 1.178 WHIP resulting in a WAR of 1.4. Last year, he went 12-6 with a 2.21 ERA, finishing sixth in the AL Cy Young Award voting. Hiura, 22, is slashing .331/.399/.703 at Triple-A San Antonio with 14 doubles, 16 home runs and 39 runs batted in. He also hit .281 with five home runs in 17 games with the Brewers’ major-league club earlier this year.
The Brewers have Mike Moustakas at second base, who’s having an All-Star-caliber season, and although this deal would be painful for the team in the long-term, it might be a postseason difference-maker for them this year or next in their small window to bring a world championship to Milwaukee, something this franchise has never accomplished.

Philadelphia Phillies
Trade Partner: Detroit Tigers

The Phillies could use another legitimate left-handed starting pitcher to put between Aaron Nola and right-handers Jake Arrieta and Zach Eflin, and the Tigers’ Matthew Boyd would be a perfect fit. Boyd, 28, is controllable through 2022 and is arbitration-eligible in 2020. He’s having a breakout-type season, going 5-5 with an impressive 3.35 ERA, 3.0 WAR with 112 strikeouts in 88 2/3 innings in 15 starts. He could be a difference-maker and a strong counter to the Braves’ signing of Dallas Keuchel last week.
The prospect cost to the Phillies would be significant because of the contractual control years of Boyd, and perhaps a deal centered on outfielder Adam Haseley coupled with one of their top pitching prospects not named Adonis Medina or Spencer Howard, such as righty Francisco Morales, would make sense. Haseley, 23, can play all three outfield positions and is slashing .275/.358/.466 with 11 doubles and seven home runs in the minors for the Phillies this year and would be major-league ready for the Tigers. Morales, 19, is pitching in Class A, where he has punched out 66 batters in just 42 innings. He has a mid-90s fastball coupled with a solid breaking ball. Once his delivery is cleaned up, his command and control should arrive and if that happens, the 6-4 right-hander has the potential of developing into a solid No. 2- or 3-type starter.

Atlanta Braves
Trade Partner: Pittsburgh Pirates

The Atlanta Braves made a big splash last week when they signed left-handed starting pitcher Dallas Keuchel in free agency, but GM Alex Anthopoulos is not done making moves. He’s been very aggressive on the trade front, talking to several GMs on a regular basis regarding every possible reliever and closer who’s available or could become available. If the Pirates continue to fall out of the race, the Braves might be a perfect match in a trade for impact closer Felipe Vázquez. Perhaps a package of southpaws Kolby Allard and Thomas Burrows could get a deal done.
Vázquez, 27, is in his prime and controllable through 2023 with the last two years of his deal being team options. He’s under a club-friendly deal that pays him $4.5 million this year, $5.75 million in 2020 and $7.75 million in 2021 with club options at $10 million for both 2022 and 2023 and the buyouts totaling $1.5 million. Vázquez has appeared in 26 games this year with a 2.22 ERA with 15 saves and a staggering 46 strikeouts in 28 1/3 innings.
In return, the Pirates would need one of the Braves’ top starting pitching prospects, and although they can’t get Ian Anderson from them, they might be able to pry away 21-year-old Allard. The lefty is currently pitching at Triple-A Gwinnett in the International League and is 5-3 with a 3.88 ERA. Allard has an 89-92 mph sneaky fastball with a filthy curveball and a solid changeup and would fit nicely in the Pirates’ young rotation. Burrows, 24, was the Mariners’ fourth-round pick back in 2016 and was acquired by Atlanta, along with Luiz Gohara, for outfielder Mallex Smith and right-handed reliever Shae Simmons. Burrows has pitched at both Double A and Triple A and has struck out 28 batters in 25 1/3 innings over 21 appearances. His lack of command is the only thing standing in his way of being a productive left-handed set-up reliever in the majors.
This deal would make the Braves heavy favorites in the NL East and give them a legitimate chance of getting back to the World Series. For the Pirates, it’s business as usual, lowering payroll and building for the future.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Trade Partner: Kansas City Royals

The Dodgers are always prepared to deal with injuries without making a trade, as was the case when Corey Seager went down last week with a Grade 1 1/2 hamstring strain. At the major-league level, they had Chris Taylor and Kiké Hernández capable of filling in, and they have top shortstop prospect Gavin Lux waiting in Double A. However, there is one player who would really add to the Dodgers’ pool of position players who could be a potential difference-maker, and that’s Whit Merrifield of the Royals. Merrifield fits the Dodgers’ mold of being able to play multiple positions, including second base, third base and either corner outfield position. I think he would win the everyday job at second base (with Max Muncy moving to first base most of the time) because he’s a definite upgrade offensively over both Taylor and Hernández. Merrifield, 30, is slashing .302/.351/.492 with 18 doubles, seven triples, eight home runs and stolen 10 bases. He would give the Dodgers even more flexibility than they already have, and he’s signed to a club-friendly contract pays him $1 million this year, $5 million in 2020, $6.75 million in 2021 and $2.75 million in 2022 with a club option for 2023. There are some escalators and incentives in the contract. Merrifield has great makeup and character, and his positive energy would fit in great with the Dodgers’ clubhouse.
In return, the Royals would be thrilled if they could get a package of second baseman Jeter Downs and right-handed pitching prospect Josiah Gray, even though they are both a few years away from the majors. Downs, 20, was acquired by the Dodgers from the Reds the last offseason in the Yasiel Puig and Alex Wood trade. He’s slashing .249/.315/.469 with 12 doubles, 12 home runs, 45 runs batted in and 17 stolen bases in 21 attempts at Rancho Cucamonga in the California League. He profiles as an everyday second baseman with a special speed-and-power combination for the position. Gray, 21, is dominating in Class A, where he’s 4-0 with a 2.64 ERA, punching out 69 batters in 58 innings. Both prospects have high upside but both also have some risk.

Colorado Rockies
Trade Partner: Miami Marlins

If the Rockies want to see the playoffs again this year, I think they should go outside the organization and trade for another starting pitcher, and the one they should target is the Marlins’ Caleb Smith. The lefty has three above-average pitches, a 92-94 mph fastball with a plus late-breaking slider and a deceptive changeup. The three-pitch mix is special, and he’s one of the most underrated left-handers in the sport. He is presently on the injured list with left hip inflammation so the Rockies would need to wait until he is healthy and make sure the medicals are cleared so there is no risk going forward.
In return for Smith, who is controllable through 2024 and not even eligible for salary arbitration until 2021, the Marlins would have to get both quantity and quality and be clear in their minds that they win this deal long-term when they’re ready to start contending in 4-5 years. The deal would have to be centered on minor-league first baseman Grant Lavigne, the Rockies’ first-round pick (42nd overall) in last year’s draft. Lavigne, 19, is presently at Asheville in the South Atlantic League, where he’s got a .348 on-base percentage with 13 doubles and five home runs in 64 games. In addition, to make the deal work for Miami, the Marlins would need two more prospects such as second baseman Garrett Hampson, who is blocked long-term behind the Rockies’ best prospect Brendan Rodgers, and third baseman Colton Welker, who is also blocked on the Rockies’ depth chart behind Nolan Arenado. Hampson, 24, was hitting .282 at Triple A in 85 at-bats and .186 at the major-league level in 97 at-bats. He has the potential of developing into a 10-12 home run hitter with the potential to steal 30 bases. Welker, 21, was the Rockies’ fourth-round pick in 2016, and he’s currently slashing .281/.336/.465 with 19 doubles, seven home runs and 36 runs batted in at Double-A Hartford in the Eastern League. Lavigne, Hampson and Welker would immediately improve the Marlins’ position-player prospect pool with three potential everyday future major-league players.
It’s a big price for the Rockies to pay, but worth it for Smith, 27, who has a 3.41 ERA in 12 starts, punching out 82 hitters in 66 innings with a WHIP of 1.015 and a WAR of 1.2.

The National Crisis

Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo says he is not even considering the possibility of trading Max Scherzer. But if the Nats decide to listen to offers for their ace right-hander, the interest likely would be intense, and not simply because Scherzer is a three-time Cy Young award winner who remains an elite performer at age 34.
 

The massive deferrals in Scherzer’s contract reduce the amount he will be paid in the near term, potentially increasing his appeal to both big spenders and small. Scherzer is owed the second $7.5 million portion of a $15 million payout for this season, plus $15 million in both 2020 and ‘21. He will receive additional $15 million payments, deferred without interest, from ‘22 to ‘28. 

In an interview on Friday, Rizzo continued to talk about the Nationals as a potential contender, saying, “You build these teams to compete for championships.” The Nats, however, are six games under .500, 8 1/2 games back in the NL East, and 1-2 to start a critical 11-game homestand against the Diamondbacks and the two teams Washington is chasing in the NL East, the Phillies and Braves.
A 12-4 surge prior to this stretch had the Nationals believing they were on the verge of a turnaround. A failure to regain momentum quickly will increase the chances they listen to offers for veterans such as Scherzer, potential free-agent third baseman Anthony Rendon and closer Sean Doolittle.
Asked specifically about Scherzer, Rizzo said, “We’re certainly not thinking about that right now. We control the best pitcher in baseball for 2 1/2 more years – three playoff runs. He’s extremely well-priced. If you look at his contract, he’s extremely, extremely well-priced. We would have to command something that would be franchise-altering to consider moving him.”
The unique structure of Scherzer’s contract would not help clubs trying to stay under the luxury-tax threshold – his annual charge, based on the average salary in his seven-year, $210 million contract with the Nationals, is $30 million. The Nats, however, could lower that number by including cash in a trade, reducing the financial burden for a prospective suitor in exchange for a better return.
Scherzer would be the prize of the starting-pitching market if he became available – he leads the NL with 99 1/3 innings and 33.6 percent strikeout rate, and ranks sixth with a 2.81 ERA. If the Nats are to trade him, their best chance would be within the next 6 1/2 weeks, before Scherzer gains control of the process.

The Nationals did not award Scherzer a no-trade clause when they signed him to his free-agent contract in January 2015. But baseball this season is introducing a single trade deadline on July 31, and Scherzer at the end of the season will gain full no-trade protection as a 10-and-5 player – 10 years of service, five consecutively with the same club.
Until then, he is powerless to block a trade.
“I have zero control over that. It means nothing to me,” Scherzer said on Saturday. “I’m here to win here. I have too much to worry about, trying to pitch and prepare every fifth day. Why (expend) any mental capacity on it at all when it’s completely out of my control? If we turn the corner here and win, we don’t even have to talk about it.”
Even if the Nationals fail to recover, they might prefer to retool around Scherzer rather than move him. The Nats exceeded the luxury-tax threshold in each of the past two seasons, spending more than $400 million combined in player payroll. A trade of Scherzer would represent almost a complete reversal at a time when the team’s attendance already is in decline, dropping from 31,620 in 2018 to 28,115 this season, through 33 home dates.

A trade of Rendon, who is eligible for free agency at the end of the season, also would not be a certainty. As previously reported, the Nats had a deal in place to send outfielder Bryce Harper to the Astros at last year’s deadline, but ownership quashed the possibility. Harper at the time was in the same contractual position as Rendon is now, and the two are represented by the same agent, Scott Boras.
Rendon, 29, is third in the National League in both OPS and FanGraphs’ version of Wins Above Replacement (fWAR), and might be even more valuable to the Nationals than Harper was. The Nats had an abundance of outfielders to replace Harper. They do not have a third baseman in their system to replace Rendon.
Rendon has said he wants to stay in Washington and the Nats have said they want to keep him, but Boras generally prefers his clients to establish their values on the open market. On May 22, Rizzo told Washington radio station FM 106.7 The Fan that the team was “aggressively” trying to sign Rendon. On Friday, he said, “We’ve gone back and forth with offers and counter-proposals fairly recently.”
The return in a trade for Rendon almost certainly would beat the draft pick the Nats would receive if he left as a free agent, but it would not necessarily be a game changer. Few contenders need a third baseman, and Rendon – like Manny Machado a year ago – would be strictly a rental. The Orioles acquired five minor leaguers from the Dodgers for Machado, but only one was a headliner – outfielder Yusniel Diaz.

Scherzer likely would yield a better package, particularly if the Nationals included significant cash, but such a move would be difficult for Rizzo personally as well as professionally. Rizzo was the Diamondbacks’ scouting director when the team drafted Scherzer out of the University of Missouri with the 11th pick of the 2006 draft.
“I’ve never been closer to a player in my career,” Rizzo said. “I drafted him in Arizona. I watched him grow up. We went hard after him (in free agency). We made him a promise that if you’re signing for seven years and you’re deferring all this money to help us win championships, we’re going to do everything we can to win.”
The Nats have maintained that commitment, opening the season with the game’s fifth-highest payroll, according to the Associated Press. But Rendon, shortstop Trea Turner, outfielder Juan Soto and first baseman Ryan Zimmerman are among their stalwarts who have spent time on the injured list. The team’s bullpen, even after a recent uptick, remains last in the majors with a 6.23 ERA.

“We’ve dug ourselves a big hole. But we’ve dug it early enough where hopefully we can respond,” Rizzo said. “We all build these teams to win championships. But you also have to be flexible and open-minded enough to know when you have to make changes and go in a different direction.”
The days and weeks ahead will determine whether the Nationals shift direction, and the extent of the changes they are willing to make.

It will fascinating to follow this story as it develops, after all, it is a National Crisis.

Happy Father's Day

Yordan Alvarez

Ladies and Gentlemen, boys and girls, it’s the moment we’ve all been waiting for.... The Call up of the one, the only, YORDAN ALVAREZ!!!

Although at this point, he needs little to no introduction, here’s some quick scouting reports on the man himself:

“Alvarez boasts a powerful lefty swing with improved loft and more than enough strength to muscle balls out to the opposite field. He has a keen eye in the box and has done well working counts and finding pitches to drive across the zone, utilizing the whole field. The big-bodied corner stick can get too passive at times, however, forcing himself to work from behind and expand the zone with his weakest contact coming on rolled-over grounders versus the soft stuff. Still, his approach is impressively advanced for a player of his age and with his level of reps, and the overall developmental trajectory bodes well for his future as a potential impact bat at the big-league level.” - 

John Sickles gave him a B+ with this to say: “looks like a pure hitter to me, one who makes adjustments well and should provide high batting averages and OBPs; with 6-5, 225 frame more power should come too; doesn’t run well enough to play center field and arm fits best in left but he should be a competent outfield defender and played errorless ball in 26 games at first base; grade assumes more power will come. ETA late 2019.”

Astros Future and Spencer had this to say: “The Astros got a steal in Alvarez when they acquired him from the Dodgers in a trade for Josh Fields. Alvarez had a breakout 2017 and continued to see his stock as a prospect rise in 2018. He got off to a great start hitting .299 with 8 2B, 6 HR, 26 RBI in his first 27 games but then missed about a month dealing with a hand injury. He came back in mid June and finished his time in AA hitting .325 with 12 HR, 46 RBI and 168 wRC+ in 45 games. He was promoted to AAA where he had a .801 OPS with 8 HR in 43 games (111 wRC+). Overall he had a 139 wRC+ as a 21 year old between AA and AAA. Alvarez is huge (6’5″, 225 lbs) but actually moves around really well. The Astros continue to play Alvarez and left and praise his work there, but many do project him to first base or DH. He has monster power and has improved his plate discipline. He was ranked the #34 prospect in all of baseball by Baseball America, but outside the top 100 by FanGraphs, demonstrating a wide range of opinions throughout the industry. Getting to his prodigious power more readily in games will be the biggest focus for Alvarez in the short term, alongside his enigmatic defense.”

Although Yordan has always been an excellent hitter, in 2019, he took it to an entirely new level. He is hitting .343/.443/.742 for an other worldly 1.185 OPS, which is good for 75% ABOVE LEAGUE AVERAGE IN AAA!!

He has smashed the league, hitting 23 HR’s in 213 AB - which is equal to 1 out of every 9 AB he’s hitting one out of the park.

Defensively, Yordan is limited playing LF, 1B but primarily as a DH. In AAA this year while “working on his defense”, Alvarez played 25 of his games in LF (44.6%), 2 Games in Right (3.5%), 9 Games at 1B (16%), and 20 games at DH (35.7%) - and that doesn’t account for games where he was pulled from the field early for defensive reasons. 

For him to make Mike Trout look like a AAA player of course.

In reality, we should lower our expectations just slightly. Vlad Guerrero Jr., one of the most renowned prospects in recent history struggled upon his entry to the majors. His triple slash after 53 PA came in at a below mendoza level .191/.283/.234. That OPS of .517 is well below Adam Everett’s career .640 line - which should put a lot in perspective. After striking out 139 times in his 1,075 AB in the minors (12.9%) - he struck out a much more mortal 25.5% in his first taste in the majors.

This is not to say he is guaranteed to struggle, simply to say, let’s hold back from the high expectations everyone has based on the offensive juggernaut he’s been this season. There’s numerous examples of stars struggling in their first glimpse, even as recently as Alex Bregman for us. 

Ehh, screw it. Let’s be excited. The day is finally here!! 

Dingers, taters and long balls

As was foretold in the ancient past (April), the league wide home run pace has continued to climb with no signs of slowing. Last week, the league was on pace for 6,537 home runs. After another seven days and 267 big flies, the pace has now climbed to 6,591. I foresee more home for growth. There’s a chance for the league to beat the previous home run record of 6,105 by as many as 600 homers. That’s like stuffing an extra 10 Mark McGwire’s into the league stats.


It’s small wonder the homer pace is accelerating. In our last column, hardly anybody reached the four-homer plateau. This time around, the top eight combined for 34 blasts. Blackmon and Jimenez led the way. The Rockies outfielder is on fire in recent weeks. After a slow start to the early-season, Blackmon is hitting .373/.423/.800 with 14 home runs in his last 163 plate appearances. Unsurprisingly, his April slump coincided with a period of just four games at Coors Field. Thirteen of his 15 total home runs have come at home in 117 plate appearances despite taking 136 plate appearances on the road.

A month-long stint on the injured list seems to have served Jimenez well. Since returning, he’s batting .253/.311/.590 with eight home runs in 90 plate appearances. It’s easy to see why he’s succeeding – Jimenez is swinging at fewer pitches outside of the strike zone. There are still issues with his high whiff and ground ball rates which will prevent him from being among the league leaders. Over time, those traits may improve.
Muncy has picked up exactly where he left off last season. Although he’s whiffing a little more frequently this year, it hasn’t affected his strikeout rate because he’s become much more aggressive on pitches inside the zone. Muncy succeeded in 2018 despite a penchant for passivity. The current iteration can be described as extremely disciplined. There’s a fine line between passive and discipline. Hitters who fall on the right side of the line (discipline) are monsters.

Scott Kingery is by far the most surprising inclusion in this group of eight sluggers. Presently, a .395 BABIP has buoyed his production enough to make up for serious contact issues. While his plate discipline has also improved, it’s still below average. He’s making a boatload of hard contact which helps to explain his success to date. I expect to see some regression. At this point, he’ll start everyday in center field or third base.
The other four to mash this week are sluggers with whom we’re very familiar. Encarnacion managed the feat despite playing in only four games. He’s nursing a sore back. It’s nice to see Schwarber and Olson do what they’re best known for – power binges. Rendon would be an MVP candidate in a normal season. Alas, he’s a distant also-ran behind Christian Yelich and Cody Bellinger.

A total of 16 players are now projected to reach the 40-homer plateau. Yelich has climbed from a preseason projection of roughly 28 home runs to within a hair of 50. Not to be confused with a projection, 27 players are on pace to reach 40 home runs. “Pace” is not science. It’s a poor method for building expectations about the future.
Joc Pederson was bumped from the Top 10 this week in deference to Renfroe. He surged all the way to fourth on the list due to a hot week and an adjustment to his plate appearances. Despite Reyes’ early success in 2019, Renfroe has emerged as the superior hitter. If the Padres ever decide they can’t afford a defensive outfield of Reyes, Wil Myers, and Renfroe, I now expect Reyes to draw the short straw. For anybody who hasn’t been keeping track, Moustakas has now hit eight home runs in his last 57 plate appearances.

Electrifying

Electrifying outfielder Ramon Laureano served as the Athletics’ offensive catalyst, launching a go-ahead grand slam -- his ninth round-tripper of the year -- in the eighth inning of their 6-2 victory over the Rays on Wednesday afternoon. He finished the contest 2-for-4 and drove in five of Oakland’s six runs, while also chipping in a pair of stolen bases for good measure. The 24-year-old burst onto the major-league scene as a rocket-armed defensive wizard in center field late last year. While it didn’t take very long to cement his reputation as a Gold Glove caliber outfielder, he’s been a work in progress at the plate, flashing immense fantasy upside. As he displayed in this contest, he profiles as a true five-category, power-and-speed combo threat if it all comes together.   

It would be purely hyperbolic to infer that Laureano is on the precipice of blossoming into a true fantasy superstar. His plate skills aren’t elite. He strikes out nearly a quarter of the time and rarely walks. Those deficiencies stand out, and may prevent him from reaching his full potential, but they won’t prevent him from being a relevant fantasy asset because of his power and speed contributions. He’s already racked up nine homers and eight stolen bases across 69 games, giving him a realistic shot at eclipsing the 20-homer and 20-steal plateau. To put that in lofty achievement in context, only 10 hitters -- Mike Trout, Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Trevor Story, Christian Yelich, Javier Baez, Mookie Betts, Ian Desmond, Starling Marte and Tim Anderson -- accomplished the feat in 2018.

The fact that Laureano has a chance to join that elite group is made even more impressive by how much he struggled at the plate early this season. To say that he got off to a frosty start would be charitable. He posted an underwhelming .221/.278/.328 triple-slash line with only seven extra-base hits (three homers) and three steals across 133 plate appearances through May 5. He’s gone on an absolute tear ever since, hitting .298 (37-for-124) with 19 runs scored, 15 extra-base hits (six homers), 16 RBI and five steals across 33 games.

The Padres dropped a bombshell on Wednesday by optioning rookie sensation Chris Paddack to High-A Lake Elsinore. While the timing of the move is rather unexpected, it shouldn't come as a total shock, because the Padres were always expected to monitor his workload closely this season. After undergoing Tommy John surgery in August 2016, Paddack threw only 90 innings between High-A and Double-A last year. The 23-year-old righty is already up to 65 2/3 frames this season and seems unlikely to eclipse the 150-inning plateau this season. He’s tailed off in recent weeks after a surreal nine-start stretch to begin his major-league career, but still owns a sparkling 3.15 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and pristine 72/13 K/BB ratio across 12 big-league starts. While the Padres’ decision may be frustrating for fantasy owners, especially those in playoff contention, opting to exercise caution and protect his long-term health is the right move. By optioning him to the minors, they now have the ability to give him a brief rest period or at least have control his workload. He should be back with the major-league rotation in a few weeks.

Clevinger Comeback Imminent

The Indians injury-depleted rotation will receive a much-needed injection with the stud righty Mike Clevinger slated to return against the Rangers on Monday. The 28-year-old fired 5 1/3 scoreless frames with five strikeouts in his last rehab start at Double-A Akron on Tuesday after struggling in his rehab debut at Triple-A Columbus last Thursday. He’s been sidelined for over two months with an upper back strain, but projects as an upper-echelon fantasy starter the rest of the way. He tallied 22 strikeouts over 12 scoreless innings (two starts) for the Indians before sustaining the injury in early April.

Seager Sidelined

Dodgers’ shortstop Corey Seager is expected to miss several weeks after straining his left hamstring while rounding third base on an Alex Verdugo single in the top of the ninth inning of Tuesday's game against the Angels. He was scheduled to undergo an MRI on Wednesday, but the team has not provided an update yet. Regardless, he’s expected to miss significant time. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told reporters after the game that it's probably a Grade 2-plus strain, which typically requires at least six weeks of rest and recovery. Utility specialist Chris Taylor will take over as the primary shortstop for Los Angeles.

AL Quick Hits: Blue Jays placed Ken Giles on the 10-day injured list retroactive to June 11 with right elbow inflammation. … Hunter Dozier (chest) is expected to start taking batting practice in the next few days. … Willie Calhoun (quad) is set to begin a minor league rehab assignment Thursday at Triple-A Nashville. … Justin Verlander struck out a career-high 15 batters over seven innings in a no-decision against the Brewers. … Daniel Vogelbach went 4-for-5 with a solo homer, his 17th long ball of the season, and a walk in the Mariners’ win over the Twins … Mallex Smith collected three hits and swiped his 18th base of the year in that contest. … Yonny Chirinos recorded seven strikeouts over six innings of two-run ball in a no-decision against the Athletics. … Matt Olson swatted his 11th long ball of the season in the Athletics’ win over the Rays. … Andrew Benintendi went 3-for-4 with a pair of RBI in the Red Sox’ comeback win over the Rangers … Lance Lynn whiffed eight over six innings in a no-decision in that contest. … Rowdy Tellez went 2-for-5 with a grand slam to lift the Blue Jays to a win over the Orioles. … Vladimir Guerrero Jr. posted three hits, an RBI and two runs scored in that one. … Shane Greene nailed down his American League-leading 20th save of the season in the Tigers’ victory over the Royals. … Adalberto Mondesi recorded his major league-leading 26th stolen base in the losing effort. … Alex Bregman walked four times in the Astros’ loss to the Brewers. … Ryan Yarbrough will start for the Rays on Thursday against the Angels. … Collin McHugh (elbow) is expected to begin a minor league rehab assignment this weekend. … Kyle Funkhouser is a candidate to start for the Tigers on Saturday against the Indians … Jordan Zimmermann (elbow, glute) will make a rehab start on Thursday for Triple-A Toledo.

NL Quick Hits: Nolan Arenado exited Wednesday's game against the Cubs with a bone contusion in his left arm. Rockies manager Bud Black told reporters that x-rays didn’t reveal any “significant” damage. … Joey Votto was removed from Wednesday's game against the Indians due to mid-back stiffness. … Marlins righty Jordan Yamamoto spun seven scoreless innings to earn a win over the Cardinals in his major league debut on Wednesday. … Garrett Cooper went 3-for-5 and smashed a grand slam in that victory. … Kyle Schwarber went 1-for-4 with a three-run homer and four RBI to power the Cubs to a blowout win over the Rockies. … Javier Baez swatted his 17th long ball in that contest. … Merrill Kelly tossed 7 2/3 shutout frames to pick up a win over the Phillies. … Zach Eflin fanned nine batters over eight innings of two-run ball in a loss to the Diamondbacks. … Mike Moustakas went 2-for-5 with a go-ahead two-run homer to lead the Brewers over the Astros in extra-innings. … Austin Riley went 3-for-5 with a game-tying solo homer and three RBI in the Braves’ win over the Pirates in extra-innings. … Josh Bell swatted his 19th homer in the loss. … Giants activated Buster Posey from the 10-day injured list. … Matt Strahm will come off the injured list on Thursday to start against the Rockies. … Daniel Ponce de Leon will start for the Cardinals against the Mets on Friday. … Jhoulys Chacin (back) will be activated from the injured list on Monday to start against the Padres. … Diamondbacks placed Jon Duplantier on the 10-day injured list with right shoulder inflammation He’ll undergo an MRI on Thursday. … David Robertson (elbow) was able to play catch on Tuesday. … Jordan Lyles (hamstring) will throw a bullpen session this weekend. … Steve Cishek has been diagnosed with a bruise on the inside of his right knee.