What's in my Christmas stocking ?

 

The Blue Jays reportedly signed free-agent starting pitcher Hyun-Jin Ryu Sunday night to a four-year deal worth US$80 million, according to the MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.

The Korean lefty gives the Blue Jays a front of the rotation starter, joining the likes of off-season acquisitions Chase Anderson and Tanner Roark.
 Ryu led the majors in earned-run average during a breakout 2019 season, finishing at 2.32, and he was the runner-up for the National League Cy Young Award and a mid-season all-star.

The 32-year-old went 14-5 with 163 strikeouts in 182.2 innings with the Dodgers.

In six seasons with the Dodgers, Ryu went 54-33 with a 2.98 ERA. He was a star in the Korea Baseball Organization before joining the Dodgers, going 98-52 in seven seasons.
News of the signing comes the same day as the Jays inking infielder Travis Shaw to a one-year-contract.

Ryu was an All-Star for the first time in 2019, seven years after leaving the Korean Baseball Organization for U.S. free agency and, eventually, a six-year, $36 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers. He played last season with the Dodgers after accepting the $17.9nmillion qualifying offer and was healthy enough to make 29 starts for the first time since 2013, his rookie year.

He also changed his dietary and conditioning habits for the better, a process that included reconnecting with a coach he’d worked with in Korea.

His best season resulted. Ryu stood among National League leaders in ERA (2.32) and wins (14). He was third (to Jack Flaherty and Jacob deGrom) in WHIP, second (to Max Scherzer) in strikeouts per walk and led in walks per nine. His leading asset was command — 163 strikeouts and 22 unintentional walks in 182 2/3 innings — and he rode that as frontrunner for the NL Cy Young Award well into August, when his ERA after 22 starts was 1.45.

His next four starts likely cost him that recognition.  Over those 2 1/2 weeks, against the Atlanta Braves, New York Yankees, Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies, Ryu allowed 31 hits and 21 runs in 19 innings. His ERA, bordering on historic, rose to 2.45. He was more effective to finish September and was just so-so in a division series start against the Washington Nationals.

Important, for Ryu and the Dodgers, was a season without injury. He’d missed significant time in 2015 and 2016 because of shoulder surgery and setbacks related to it. He was on the disabled list in 2018 because of a groin injury. Since his return in the middle of August of that season, Ryu has made 38 starts. In them, he is 18-8 with a 2.22 ERA.

It was commonly believed Ryu would prefer to remain on the West Coast, even in the Los Angeles area, which offered re-signing with the Dodgers or signing with the pitching-poor Angels.

Ryu will turn 33 before the start of the 2020 season and has yet to prove he can put one full season after the other, representing some risk.

Shaw signs with the Jays

The newest first baseman

The Toronto Blue Jays and infielder have agreed to a one-year, $4 Million contract, according to multiple reports.

Shaw, 29 is coming off a season with the Milwaukee Brewers in which he hit seven home runs, while driving in 16 runs in 86 games.

The corner infielder begin his career with the Boston Red Sox in 2015, he was then traded to Milwaukee in 2016 and has spent the last three seasons with the team.

In five MLB seasons, the American has 99 home runs, 310 runs batted in and a 10.6 Wins Above Replacement.

With recently signing a one-year deal with the Brewers, Shaw will provide an experienced left-handed bat to this young Jays lineup.

Shaw spent most of his 2018 season playing third base (71 games) and has logged 434 games at that position, but he has also played 129 games at first base, while adding 41 at second base.

It's not surprising that he settled for a one-year deal, as his age-29 season was easily his worst as a big leaguer. He hit .157/.281/.270 with seven home runs and a career-worst 33 percent strikeout rate -- well above the 18.4 and 22.8 percent rates he logged in 2018 and 2017, respectively.

 Shaw figures to compete with Rowdy Tellez and Brandon Drury for time at first base and designated hitter while backing up Vladimir Guerrero at third base. His contract could end up being worth $4.675 million with incentives.

 He also saves a lot of money better spent on starting pitching.

Desert Dogs

MadBum goes to the desert

Madison Bumgarner is trading in his oceanside home ballpark for a more understated poolside view.
The southpaw is making the leap from one NL West club to another, reportedly agreeing to a five-year, $85 million contract with the Diamondbacks on Sunday.

As part of the deal, Bumgarner will receive $15 million in deferred money, per Rosenthal. That means Bumgarner will make $70 million over the course of his five years, a number comparable to the four-year, $70-plus million offer the Giants made to keep him in San Francisco.  In the end, the guarantee of a fifth year proved to be the difference.

The move represents the latest for a Diamondbacks rotation that looks nothing like it did a little over a year ago. At the end of the 2018 season, the staff was anchored by veteran Zack Greinke and prepared to watch 11-game winner Patrick Corbin depart via free agency. Zack Godley had made 32 starts that season and Clay Buchholz and Matt Koch made 16 and 14, respectively.
Now, Bumgarner will head a rotation that includes Zac Gallen, acquired from the Marlins at July's trade deadline; Robbie Ray, who may actually be on his way out the door with the Bumgarner signing; and guys like Luke Weaver, Merrill Kelly, Alex Young and Mike Leake, all of whom will vie for starting jobs in spring. Taylor Clarke, Godley and prospect Jon Duplantier could also make their case in spring.

The loss of their ace means Johnny Cueto will slide into that role for the Giants after returning at the end of 2019. Jeff Samardzija and the newly signed Kevin Gausman will follow, with Tyler Beede, Logan Webb and others behind them.
For Bumgarner, the move to Arizona isn't entirely neutral given how pitcher-friendly Oracle Park is, but Chase Field plays fairly neutral for power. That's good news for the southpaw, who gave up a career-high 30 homers this past season.
His leaving the free agent market means another top target for some teams is off the board. With Bumgarner gone, lefties Hyun-Jin Ryu and Dallas Keuchel are the next top options for clubs seeking pitching help.

 

 

Rangers Get Kluber For Clase, DeShields

One such club seeking help was the Rangers.
They filled a need Sunday when they acquired former Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber from the Indians for reliever Emmanuel Clase and outfielder Delino DeShields.

"Before last year, Corey was one of the elite pitchers in the game for an extended stretch," Rangers general manager Jon Daniels said. "Last year was a little bit of a lost year for him but we think the reasons for it don't necessarily give us pause. In some ways the time off may have been a good thing, a blessing in disguise that he had thrown a lot of innings [418] in the previous two years."
The acquisition was the third for the Rangers' rotation this winter, as they previously added free agents Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles. Holdovers Mike Minor and Lance Lynn will round out the rotation.
"It sets up pretty well," Daniels said. "Now we have to go out and perform. This group has a track record and pedigree. We are excited to see them work together. This group has a chance to go out and give us both quantity and quality innings. We should be in the ballgame every night."
Kluber suffered from both injury and ineffectiveness in 2019, posting a 5.80 ERA in seven starts. In each of the prior five seasons, though, he's received Cy Young votes, including winning the award in 2014 and 2017.
The return for the Indians was met with confusion and some dismay. Clase posted a 2.31 ERA in 23 1/3 innings with the Rangers this past season and possesses a cut fastball that touches triple digits, making his ceiling as high as any young reliever's. DeShields stole 24 bases while batting .249/.325/.347 in 118 games last year.

"There were a lot of teams that had interest in Corey,", according to Chris Antonetti. "We had a variety of different packages, some of whom had players who were a little further away from the Major Leagues. One of the things we did like about what the Rangers offered were two players that could come back and help us in 2020 and help us try to sustain the level of competitiveness we've had over the last seven years."
We'll see soon enough how the trade works out for both sides.

National League Quick Hits:

  Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports that the Marlins met with Yasiel Puig last week. Heyman also notes that the Marlins have talked with the agents for Avisail Garcia, Corey Dickerson and Kole Calhoun, as well, which had been reported previously. Miami's outfield is pretty barren right now, so it's not a surprise that they're kicking the tires on multiple players. Puig had an up-and-down 2019 season, but he just turned 29 and could wind up being a nice value addition this winter. ... Dodgers signed RHP Blake Treinen to a one-year, $10 million contract. The deal was first reported last week and has now been made official. Treinen struggled to a 4.91 ERA and 59/37 K/BB ratio over 58 2/3 innings this past season, but he was one of the best relievers in baseball in 2018. Especially on a one-year contract, he's a nice bounce-back game for the Dodgers ... Phillies signed SS Didi Gregorius to a one-year, $14 million contract. The deal was first reported on Tuesday and has now been made official. Gregorius reportedly had multi-year contract offers, but he preferred to take a one-year pact to re-establish his value after his down 2019 campaign following a return from Tommy John surgery. He's a good bet to bounce back in 2020 after a normal offseason. With Gregorius taking over at shortstop, the Phillies plan to move Jean Segura to second base ... Brewers signed LHP Brett Anderson to a one-year, $5 million contract. He can earn an additional $2 million in incentives. Anderson stayed healthy for 30 starts in 2019 for just the third time in his career, posting a 3.89 ERA over 176 innings. The veteran left-hander should be a solid back-end starter for the Brew Crew, although his lack of strikeouts makes him pretty useless for fantasy purposes.

American League Quick Hits: Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports that the Rays are finalizing a contract with Japanese slugger Yoshitomo Tsutsugo. It will be a two-year deal in the range of $12 million, plus a posting fee of around $2.4 million. Topkin says that the Rays will likely rotate Tsutsugo between left field, third base and designated hitter. The 28-year-old is known for his bat, having put up a .899 OPS with 29 home runs in 131 games this past season with the Yokohama Bay Stars. There's obviously a wild card element with Tsutsugo, but he certainly has a shot to be mixed league-viable out of the gate ... he Twins are still engaged in talks with free agent third baseman Josh Donaldson. The Nationals are believed to have the largest offer on the table for Donaldson at this time. Donaldson is on record as stating he would like to return to Atlanta if the money is there. The Twins think they still have a chance and would love to bring in Donaldson to man their hot corner so they can move Miguel Sano to first base. The former AL MVP seems likely to get a four-year contract even though he is 34 years old. Last winter he had to settle for a one-year, $23 million contract with the Braves. He responded with a .900 OPS, 34 bombs and 94 RBI in 155 games ... The Blue Jays are attempting to sign free agent starter Hyun-Jin Ryu. Now that Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg are off the market, Ryu could be the top remaining target for teams looking to boost their rotations. Ryu went 14-5 with a 2.32 ERA in 29 starts for the Dodgers this year, although he faded down the stretch. He has a 2.98 career ERA in 125 starts since joining the Dodgers in 2013. The knock on Ryu is his durability -- he's never thrown more than 192 innings in a season (and that was in 2013) and has suffered multiple long-term injuries. The Dodgers and Twins are also in the hunt for Ryu, and there are probably other suitors as well. The Blue Jays signed free agent starter Tanner Roark to a two-year, $24 million deal last week but apparently they aren't finished upgrading their rotation yet ... Angels signed 3B Anthony Rendon to a seven-year, $245 million contract. He'll be formally introduced at a press conference at Angel Stadium at noon on Saturday. The superstar third baseman agreed to the contract on Wednesday during the Winter Meetings in San Diego, and now it's officially official. Rendon will get an average annual value of $35 million per season -- with the deal being slightly back-loaded. .

Oz or Caz

The Winter Meetings have come and gone. While there was no shortage of action this week in San Diego, the top two outfielders on the free-agent market both remain unsigned.

That could change before too long, though. Marcell Ozuna and Nicholas Castellanos are among the candidates to be next in line, according to MLB's Mark Feinsand -- although they might have to wait for another big bat (third baseman Josh Donaldson) to clear the way.

Ozuna and Castellanos often are lumped together -- not only due to position, but also because they offer similar profiles. So it would make sense that their markets would overlap. The Reds are one club that has been connected to both players, with a lineup that could use reinforcements beyond free-agent acquisition Mike Moustakas.

But which player is the better buy? Let's break them down.
Age
This is a factor that can't be overlooked in any free-agent situation, especially with players drawing enough interest to land a deal for more than a year or two. Fortunately, in this case, Ozuna just turned 29 last month, and Castellanos will turn 28 during Spring Training -- so both are in a good spot.

Qualifying offer
When the Tigers traded Castellanos to the Cubs on July 31, it not only sparked the slugger's late-season surge, but also made him ineligible to receive a qualifying offer. It turned out to be quite a one-two punch in favor of Castellanos' free-agency prospects.
On the other hand, the Cardinals made the one-year, $17.8 million offer to Ozuna, who turned it down. That means the team signing him would forfeit a prized Draft pick in 2020 (If the Cardinals re-signed Ozuna, they wouldn't lose a pick but also would not receive a compensatory pick). It certainly doesn't help.

Power
Both players have spent seven years in the Majors, and their overall, surface-level results have been fairly similar: a .455 slugging percentage, 148 home runs, and .183 isolated power for Ozuna; a .471 SLG, 120 homers, and a .194 ISO for Castellanos. Ozuna has the best individual season, when he slugged .548 with 37 big flies for the 2017 Marlins.
Ozuna stands out more for his quality of contact, too, even if his results in St. Louis didn't quite live up to that level. He ranked in the 93rd percentile of MLB hitters this past season in average exit velocity, 96th percentile in hard-hit rate, and 91st percentile in expected slugging percentage. But Castellanos can crush the ball, too, and he did so far more after the trade to Chicago, tying for second in MLB in barrels (27) in August and September. Was that a blip, or did he unlock something permanent?

Contact
Another thing these two have in common is they do not strike out a ton for modern sluggers. In 2019, the MLB strikeout rate was an all-time record 23 percent -- above both Castellanos (21.5 percent) and Ozuna (20.8 percent), who have lived in a similar range in recent years.
Both players do swing and miss a bit more than the average hitter, but they are aggressive in the strike zone -- and Castellanos in particular doesn't take many called strikes. So while neither player offers the upside of last year's premier free-agent outfielder (Bryce Harper), they also don't strike out on nearly the same level.

On-base ability
Just going by OBP, this is another neck-and-neck category between Castellanos (.326 career, .337 in 2019) and Ozuna (.329, .330 in '19), though it's not a strength for either player.
Castellanos has one of the game's highest chase rates on out-of-zone pitches (38.4 percent last season), and has never topped a 7.2-percent walk rate (The MLB average in 2019 was 8.5 percent). While a .243 batting average held down Ozuna's OBP last season, he also raised his walk rate to a career-high 11.3 percent. Ozuna is more disciplined than Castellanos, and if he can sustain that gain in free passes while his batting average bounces back to its level over the previous three seasons (.287), the results would be strong.

Speed
Neither player is going to make tens of millions of dollars based on his wheels, but neither is exactly a plodding base-clogger, either. Ozuna nearly doubled his career total by swiping 12 bags last season, and he has added a bit of value on the bases over his career, per FanGraphs.
Castellanos hasn't been as productive, but he did have a small edge in average sprint speed in 2019 (27.9 feet per second vs. 27.4 ft/sec, both above the MLB average of 27). He also consistently got down the line better, posting 88 of the 100 fastest home-to-first times between the two of them this past season.

Defense
There is a whole lot to consider here. Simply taking each player's career numbers in the outfield wouldn't be much of a comparison, with Ozuna (+25 Defensive Runs Saved, +28 Ultimate Zone Rating, -8 Outs Above Average) appearing far more competent than Castellanos (-36 DRS, -26 UZR, -33 OAA).
But the situation may be more complicated than that. Ozuna has not passed the eye test of late, making some notable flubs for the Cardinals -- and his OAA (a range-based Statcast metric) has declined from +3 to -1 to -8 over the past few seasons. Ozuna has also dealt with right shoulder woes that have visibly sapped his arm strength.
Castellanos, meanwhile, only converted to the outfield in late 2017. While the early results were extremely rough, he improved from -24 to -7 OAA in '19, showing an ability to make the plays he should -- even if highlights were rare. As MLB.com's Mike Petriello showed in much greater detail, there is real reason to think the inexperienced Castellanos could keep improving with the glove. He also doesn't have Ozuna's arm strength concerns, making 23 of the 25 hardest tracked throws between the two in 2019.

Overall
There isn't much daylight between Castellanos and Ozuna in any one area. Given that, it wouldn't be a surprise if Ozuna was more productive going forward. In fact, the Steamer projections at FanGraphs give him the edge for 2020 -- with an .847 OPS and 3.1 WAR, compared to an .821 OPS and 1.5 WAR for Castellanos.

On the other hand, Castellanos is a year younger -- and at this point, may be the more athletic of the two. His defense seems to be trending up, rather than down, and the gains his bat showed in Chicago give hope that he has elevated his game to another level.

 The lack of Draft pick compensation attached to him is the cherry on top.

NY captures the Great White Whale

When Gerrit Cole agreed to a record-shattering nine-year, $324 million contract with the Yankees late on Tuesday, Aaron Boone received the news much the same as the rest of the world. The manager's phone buzzed with a text message, prompting a visit to Twitter. Several of his players shared their late-night glee, with Aaron Judge and Gleyber Torres taking to social media in celebration.

"That's when you knew it looked like it was happening, so I was excited," Boone said on Wednesday. "I had a couple of interactions with players. I think there's some excitement."

That sentence, delivered with a knowing smirk, represents an understatement of massive proportions. By offering a pact that exceeds previous marks in terms of total value for free-agent pitchers and average annual value for any player, general manager Brian Cashman finally landed the pitcher to whom he referred as his "great white whale."

Here are several questions we've entertained in the hours since Cole's decision sent shock waves through the Winter Meetings lobby:

Yep, those numbers are not typos. In terms of dollars given to a free-agent pitcher, Cole's $324 million blew past the seven-year, $245 million deal that Stephen Strasburg signed with the Nationals on Monday. Before this week, David Price's seven-year, $217 million pact with the Red Sox (signed in December 2015) held the high mark.

With an average annual value of $36 million, Cole's deal exceeds the $35.54 million that Mike Trout is bringing in from the Angels.

"Elite players get paid, typically," Cashman said. "If you want to compete for the elite-type talent, you're going to have to step up to the plate and allow yourself to be noticed."

In addition to potentially incurring penalties by exceeding the third luxury tax threshold of $248 million, the Cole signing will force the Yankees to forfeit their second- and fifth-round picks in the 2020 MLB Draft, plus $1 million from their international bonus pool in the 2020-21 signing period.

The deal is not official because Cole still must pass a physical, but that is thought to be a formality. The Yankees said that an announcement will not occur before next week, when they plan to have Cole don the pinstripes at a Yankee Stadium news conference. Cole's uniform number has not yet been announced; Cole wore No. 45 with the Pirates and Astros, but that is currently assigned to Luke Voit. 

Cashman's Great White Whale

Las Vegas didn't waste time adjusting to reflect the Cole signing, with some oddsmakers on the Strip identifying the Yankees as World Series favorites. 

Why? To start, Cole's arrival delivers a 1-2 punch, solidifying the top of the Yankees' rotation while weakening the starting five of the American League champion Astros. The 29-year-old Cole was 20-5 with a league-leading 2.50 ERA (185 ERA+) last season, pacing the Majors with 326 strikeouts and finishing second to teammate Justin Verlander in the AL Cy Young Award voting.

"You are talking about a guy who is the best of the best, in the prime of his career," Boone said. "Any time we can add an impact performer like that, we feel like that potentially brings more than just between the lines. This is the kind of person that you feel like has all the winning intangibles and makeup."

New York's full-court press to sign Cole moved into high gear on Dec. 3, when a contingent that included Cashman, assistant general manager Michael Fishman, Boone, pitching coach Matt Blake and retired hurler Andy Pettitte traveled to Newport Beach, Calif., to meet with Cole and his wife, Amy. Managing general partner Hal Steinbrenner did not attend, but he spoke to Cole via telephone.

The meeting with the Coles and the pitcher's agent, Scott Boras, lasted more than four hours, during which the club attempted to describe what life would be like if they selected the Yankees' offer. The presentation was reminiscent of the one that the team utilized to woo CC Sabathia in December 2008, when they convinced a California product that the Bronx would be the right fit.

Boone strongly believes that having Pettite in the room helped to sway Cole's decision -- after all, who better to express the differences between performing in New York and Houston, and what a Yankees World Series ring can do to cement a legacy?

"I think so much of him," Boone said of Pettitte. "He brings so much to the table. We've started to try and increase his role a little bit with the organization because he does have such a positive impact on guys. When he says something, he connects. It's impactful and I'm confident that was the case when he came with us."

The Yankees believe that Cole's willingness to bet on himself speaks volumes about his character -- he did so as a high school draftee in 2008, bypassing their offer in order to attend UCLA, then turned down extension offers as a big leaguer so he could reach free agency.

On several occasions this week, Boone and Cashman have expressed that they have no doubt Cole will be an instant fit in New York, lauding his intensity and focused mindset.

"Those are examples of someone who's talking the talk and can walk the walk," Cashman said. "They're just little glimpses into the persona. There's no guarantee for anybody on any level, but you try to have your takeaways from the people that coach them and that played alongside of them. Then you see how they react in the crazy environment of playoff baseball and World Series baseball. And listen, he has checked every box thus far."

With the Cole holding pattern lifted, Cashman is free to continue engaging with outfielder Brett Gardner, as both sides aim to continue their productive relationship. Gardner is expected to earn a significant raise over the $9.5 million he earned this past season, and he would provide a capable option in center field with Aaron Hicks (Tommy John surgery) expected to be out until at least June.

Right-hander Dellin Betances and catcher Austin Romine are among the club's other free agents. Cashman has expressed confidence in Kyle Higashioka as a backup to catcher Gary Sanchez, but another option could be free agent Martin Maldonado, who caught Cole 10 times in 2019. In those games, Cole had a 1.57 ERA and .471 opponents' OPS, his lowest numbers with any of Houston's catchers.

Now boasting an impressive rotation headed by Cole, Masahiro Tanaka, James Paxton and Luis Severino, the Yankees are expected to continue shopping left-hander J.A. Happ, though there is no imminent deadline to move the veteran. Happ is set to earn $17 million in 2020, a figure that could offset some of Cole's contract and help the Yanks avoid luxury tax penalties.

 "I've got simultaneous conversations going on," Cashman said. "Everything gets tied together because you don't have unlimited resources, even though our resources are more than most. I am having sidebars all over the place."

---

Jays hunt big game

More Toronto Blue Jays ‘Off season Targets’:
Edwin Encarnación
Dallas Keuchel
David Price
Justin Smoak
Jake Odorizzi (Accepted qualifying offer from Minnesota on Nov. 14)
Zack Wheeler
Wade Miley

Next up, Japanese first baseman/left fielder Yoshitomo Tsutsugo.



Over the past several years, Yoshitomo Tsutsugo has been among the preeminent sluggers in Japanese baseball. But after 10 seasons playing in Nippon Professional Baseball, Tsutsugo wants to play in North America. Earlier this month, the 28-year-old, lefty slugger was made available to all 30 MLB clubs via the Japanese posting process.

How the posting system works:  Any MLB team is free to sign him by paying a fee to his current team, the Yokohama DeNA Bay Stars. Teams have until 5 p.m. ET Dec. 19 to agree to terms.
Tsutsugo debuted for Yokohama in 2010 at 18 but played only three games that season. By 2014, he was a full-time player appearing in 114 games and batting .300/.373/.529 with 22 home runs. In every season since then, he’s hit at least 22 home runs, including 44 in 2016 when he led the league. Tsutsugo is now the captain of his club, a respected teammate and a popular face of the franchise. He’s also represented Japan on the international stage, including at the 2017 World Baseball Classic.

Off the field, calling for less tournament-style play and stricter pitch limits to protect young arms.
After the Bay Stars were eliminated in the 2019 playoffs, Tsutsugo announced his intention to play in MLB. Over his 10-year career in Japan, Tsutsugo has hit .285 with a .910 OPS and 205 home runs. As for the rest of his game, he’s not known for his baserunning skills, thanks to his stocky, 6-foot, 210-pound build. Defensively, he’s spent most of his time in left field, but he also has experience at first and third base. He’s not considered a plus-defender at any position.
Naturally, there are questions surrounding Tsutsugo’s possible move to the majors: Will his power translate? How will he fare facing more elite pitching? What position will he play?
His raw power is intriguing, so while he’s a bit of a wild card, he’ll have no shortage of off-season suitors, including perhaps Toronto.

Tsutsugo’s 2019 in review:
Statistically, this past season was Tsutsugo’s least productive since 2013. In 131 games (557 PAs), he slashed .272/.388/.511, although he still hit 29 home runs, and posted an above-average 15.8 percent walk rate. However, he stuck out more than usual — 141 times — with a career-worst strikeout rate of 25.3 percent.
Defensively, Tsutsugo moved from left field to third base for the first time since 2014 after the Bay Stars’ regular third baseman broke his finger in August. And while he wasn’t elite at the hot corner, Tsutsugo was serviceable, according to Jim Allen, who has written about Japanese baseball for more than two decades and currently writes for Kyodo News.
“It’s not that he could play it OK, but it didn’t bother his offence at all,” Allen said.
Following the season, after the second-place Bay Stars were upset in the first round of the playoffs by the third-place Hanshin Tigers, Tsutsugo was emotional — not only because of the loss, but also due to the fact he had likely played his last game of Japanese baseball.
Here’s what teammate Spencer Patton, a relief pitcher with the Bay Stars since 2017, told The Athletic about his captain.

“He felt as the leader of the team, and us getting beat out in the first round of the playoffs, he felt responsibility to stay and help the team win a championship,” said Patton, who made 52 appearances in the majors between 2014-16, before moving overseas. “But he said he wanted to come over to the States and try to get better and try to compete with the best players in the world. I think it’s about testing his skills and proving that he can do it — to himself and to everyone else. I think that’s ultimately why anybody pursues Major League Baseball; to say that you got a chance to compete with the best players in the world.”

Quote that best sums up Tsutsugo’s 2019:
“Of course, it’s baseball, so batting and defence and base running are all important,” “I can’t assess myself. But I can say for sure I’ll do the best I can.”

How is Tsutsugo trending?
Tsutsugo is a gifted fly-ball hitter with exceptional raw power. FanGraphs reported that he averaged 92 m.p.h. off the bat last season in the NPB, a number that in MLB would have placed him among the top 30 players in 2019. He’s a natural pull-hitter, but he can still hit the ball the other way with power to centre and left-centre.
Patton said Tsutsugo’s power to the opposite field is one of his most impressive attributes.
“Most guys that are pull hitters are yanking balls down the line and really driving the ball over the pull side a lot, (and) really struggle hitting good quality pitches to the other side,” Patton said. “But Tsutsugo, he’s hitting doubles off the wall to left-centre and he’ll have no problem beating shifts over there.”
How his power translates to the majors, however, is the big unknown. One of the challenges for Tsutsugo will be how he adapts to MLB pitching, specifically, facing guys who on a regular basis throw 95 and up with elite breaking stuff. In Japan, there are some pitchers who throw 95-plus, but not many.
According to Allen, Tsutsugo has struggled to hit upper-90s fastballs in his career.
“Anything 95 and up inside is probably going to eat him up,” he said.
So he’ll need to work on his timing at the plate. That said, Tsutsugo has excellent plate discipline. He can also crush breaking balls — and if you can do it in Japan, where breaking stuff tends to be nastier, you can probably do it over here — and punish mistake pitches.
“What I see from him, he’s going to force people to throw fastballs,” Allen said. “He’s going to force people who throw mediocre fastballs to throw them, and he’ll crush them. I think that 25 to 30 home runs is not an impossibility and because he’s a left-handed hitter, of course, he’ll have the platoon advantage most of the time. I see him as being a fairly useful player.”
Defensively, Tsutsugo has drawbacks. In the outfield, he has a weak arm and he’s not quick. He’s likely limited to a corner outfield spot, first base or DH. He can play third base, but ideally not on a regular basis. Because of these limitations, there are questions about where exactly Tsutsugo fits on an MLB diamond.
“I think he can play,” said Patton. “I think he can find a spot on the roster and play and be beneficial to a team — but in my opinion, I don’t know what position he would play.”
Thanks to the excellent work of colleague Eno Sarris, we have an idea of how the 28-year-old might perform in the majors.
 But briefly, by using Clay Davenport’s website to translate Tsutsugo’s Japanese stats into MLB equivalent numbers, Sarris projects Tsutsugo could slash .271/.339/.442 next season. From there, Sarris combined his offensive projections with his poor base running and defence and found that J.D. Davis, (Mets), Ji-Man Choi (Rays) and Brandon Belt (Giants) were apt comparables.

Why Tsutsugo is a fit for the Blue Jays:

Earlier this offseason, Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins expressed interest in adding a first baseman who could play multiple positions. Tsutsugo fits the bill there, even if he won’t be a Gold Glove candidate. As a lefty bat, Tsutsugo would also give the Jays’ right-handed heavy lineup some balance. Although, his addition would rule out any possible platoon with fellow lefty Rowdy Tellez.
When asked directly about Tsutsugo earlier this month at the GM meetings, Atkins admitted the team has looked at the Japanese slugger.
“He’s an exciting hitter and versatile,”  “An interesting player, for sure.”

He’s not projected to be a star, but he has the chance to be an average-to-slightly-above-average major-leaguer. Even if his home run rates drop, his ability to get on base and draw walks should hold steady, which is an area Toronto needs to improve in. In terms of intangibles, Tsutsugo is said to have an outgoing, positive personality and a strong work ethic, useful traits during a rebuild.
“I think getting used to failing at that level is probably not going to get him down,” Allen said.
That said, any team acquiring him may need to be patient. A contending club may be unwilling to wait out potential early struggles, but with a young roster, a rebuilding team like the Blue Jays may be able to offer him more runway.
According to Patton, Tsutsugo has tried to connect with his foreign teammates, picking up a few words in English and Spanish. In 2015-16, he played a season of Dominican Winter Ball.
“He’s just eager to learn other cultures and try to speak different languages and stuff like that,” Patton said. “He’s a great guy to have in the clubhouse. He’s not strict about anything or tries to be too hard on people. He likes to keep it light and play around and then once it’s time to go between the lines, then it’s all business.”

Why Tsutsugo might not be a fit for the Blue Jays:
There are a lot of unknowns regarding Tsutsugo and how he’ll fare in the majors. Because of that, there seems to be a wide variance in expectations. Allen called him a “wild card.”
“He has a high upside,” he said. “He has a super-high ceiling compared to the other guys who are (being posted). He could be a guy who could hit 30 home runs, 35, depending on the park. Or, he could be a guy who basically has no role because he’s essentially a 28-year-old Triple-A player with poor defence who can hit 25 home runs. So, there’s that gap.”
With the way the ball flies in the majors now, hitting 20-25 home runs is more commonplace and therefore, what Tsutsugo offers may not be that hard to find elsewhere. There is also a chance that he is a complete bust.
Meanwhile, the Blue Jays have also been a bottom tier defensive team over the past two seasons and must get better in that area. Tsutsugo won’t help them there.

 But currently, three of the six current Japanese major leaguers (Shohei Ohtani, Yusei Kikuchi, Kenta Maeda) play on the west coast, while Yoshihisa Hirano is in Arizona. Yu Darvish is with the Cubs, while Masahiro Tanaka plays for the Yankees.
The likely competition:
Milwaukee is a logical landing spot for Tsutsugo,  The Brewers declined a team option on Eric Thames — who himself was a successful international signing after he played three seasons in Korea — and are now in the market for another first baseman.
The Mariners, Nationals, White Sox or Angels could also be potential fits.
Dollars and Sense:
Because Tsutsugo would be acquired via the posting system, his financials are a little more complicated than merely signing a free agent. Per the revised rules of the posting system, the MLB team that signs Tsutsugo would need to pay his Japanese club a posting fee that is calculated using the guaranteed money in the contract. Teams pay 20 percent of the first $25 million, 17.5 percent of the next $25 million and 15 percent of any amount above $50 million. For a minor-league contract, the fee is a flat 25 percent. In essence, a club is playing Tsutsugo a salary, plus a little more, to acquire him.

 Kiley McDaniel projects he could earn a two-year deal at $8 million per year, while the median projection for the Japanese slugger is a four-year deal worth $40 million for an AAV of $10 million.
Whatever he ends up signing for, Allen suggested Tsutsugo could be a “bargain” because of his makeup and intangibles. “They’re going to get more, I think, than scouts see. I think because of the makeup and because of his attitude and his desire.”


Tsutsugo is a proven slugger in the NPB, but there’s no guarantee his game will succeed in North America. He has swing-and-miss in his game, and that could accelerate in the majors, where he’ll face elite pitching on a more regular basis. And with little to offer defensively, his success will rely primarily on whether he can produce offensively.
He has the chance to be an above-average hitter, although as Eno Sarris points out, he can contribute, but he likely won’t move the needle for a big-budget contender.
Not yet a contender, the Blue Jays could be a nice landing spot for Tsutsugo, where he won’t face the pressure to immediately perform, the way he might with a contending team. He fits the Atkins-preferred mould as a first baseman who can play other positions, and at 28, he’s younger than many of the free agents out there. If he pans out, he should still be in his prime years when the Blue Jays hope to become AL East contenders.
The Blue Jays could be a fit for Tsutsugo. But does the upside outweigh the potential risk?

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Brave New World

This past October the Braves came within a run of their first National League Championship Series appearance since 2001.
In the weeks since, they've set out to make sure they score more and allow fewer runs in 2020.
After seeing a 2-1 NLDS series lead against the Cardinals slip away, including a Game 4 loss in which they led after seven innings, the Atlanta club has been the most active team in free agency since the postseason ended, most recently signing catcher Travis d'Arnaud to a two-year, $16 million deal on Sunday. The deal was just the latest for the Braves, who have also inked big-name reliever Will Smith and re-signed relievers Chris Martin and Darren O'Day and catcher Tyler Flowers.

“We’ve been pretty clear about needing someone to add to the roster and we had Travis near the top,” general manager Alex Anthopoulos said. “We like the fit in the clubhouse, we like the bat as well. ... Travis is a guy we identified and tried to get a deal done with.”

Earlier this offseason the Braves re-signed Flowers, but Brian McCann retired and left the Braves with just Flowers behind the plate. The two will likely split time, but the respective deals -- Flowers got $4 million on a one-year deal, while d'Arnaud got $16 million over two years -- speaks to how the timeshare might shake out.

In the 30-year-old d'Arnaud, the Braves are getting a player whose major league career was arguably on the ropes coming into the 2019 season. After a number of injury-plagued and disappointing years with the Mets, the New York club released him in early May and he caught on with the Dodgers, who then sold him to the Rays less than a week later.
In typical Rays fashion, d'Arnaud experienced a revitalization with the club. Manager Kevin Cash wasn't afraid to use him in various roles, including at first base and designated hitter, while also moving him up and down the lineup, with the backstop even logging 69 plate appearances at leadoff. In response, d'Arnaud hit .263/.323/.459 in his 92 games with the Rays, bopping a career-high 16 homers and 67 RBI.
The Braves boast a more potent offense than the Swiss Army Rays, so d'Arnaud isn't likely to challenge Ronald Acuna Jr. for the leadoff role in Atlanta, but he could hit fifth or sixth in a lineup that figures to score plenty of runs this year. That puts him on the fantasy radar at a position as weak as catcher, even if he's part of a timeshare.
As noted, just a few runs in either direction could be the difference between a good year and an unforgettable year for the Braves in 2020.

Reddick Undergoes Shoulder Surgery

After undergoing arthroscopic surgery on his left shoulder on Friday, Josh Reddick is expected to be ready for spring training in February.
What role he'll have, and whether it'll even be as a member of the Astros, remains to be seen.
Reddick underwent surgery to address the AC joint in his non-throwing shoulder, per the Astros. The team said he's expected to make a full recovery by the start of spring training.
The bigger question is what the Astros envision for the 32-year-old, who will earn $13 million in the final year of a four-year, $52 million contract in 2020 before hitting free agency at season's end. Reddick hit .275 with 14 homers and five steals in 141 games last season but has been a below-average offensive player, by wRC+, in each of the last two years.

Compound that with the fact that the Astros are stocked with position players -- Michael Brantley, George Springer, Yordan Alvarez and Jake Marisnick are all under team control through at least this upcoming season -- and that Kyle Tucker, the heir apparent in right field, appears to have finally arrived with a strong close to the 2019 season and the path to playing time for Reddick in Houston appears difficult. Of course, finding a trade partner might also prove difficult if the Astros aren't willing to eat a big chunk of the money owed to the veteran outfielder.
For their part, the Astros haven't expressed interest in or been rumored to be looking to move Reddick. But it will be interesting to see how they approach their outfield surplus heading into spring.

Evan White

M's, Prospect Agree To Historic Deal

Evan White isn't yet a household name. The Mariners appear willing to bet millions of dollars that he will be.
The M's are reportedly set to sign the 23-year-old first baseman to a six-year, $24 million contract that includes three club option years that could make the deal worth as much as $55.5 million, according to MLB.com. The Mariners didn't publicly confirm nor deny the Friday report, with expectations that a deal might be finalized Monday.
The deal would be historic in that it would be the first time a player with zero experience playing above Double-A received a long-term deal from a team. Three other players have signed long-term deals without any MLB service time, all of them in this decade: Eloy Jimenez, Scott Kingery and Jon Singleton.

White, a first-round pick of the Mariners in the 2017 MLB Draft, has done nothing but hit since becoming pro. Over three minor league seasons he owns a .296/.361/.471 line and hit .293/.350/.488 with 18 homers in 92 games with Double-A Arkansas this past season.
“Evan is a really mature kid, and we're going to give him an opportunity in Spring Training and see where he goes,” Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto said at the end of the regular season. “We have enough depth with Vogey and with Austin Nola to believe that if it's Evan's time, we're going to give him the chance to make it his time.”
What this deal doesn't do, some were quick to point out, is guarantee that White will be the team's starting first baseman on Opening Day. Rather, it allows spring training to be treated as a meritocracy -- which it should be anyway, though we know that's not how the business side of the sport works -- where White can be given the job based on his performance without concern about service time implications.
First base isn't as deep as it once was and White's performances in the minors make him an intriguing player, but he's got a long way to go to be fantasy relevant outside of AL-only and fairly deep mixed leagues at this point. Keep an eye on the competition in spring, though.

National League Quick Hits: The Mets have interest in potentially trading for Pirates outfielder Starling Marte. The Pirates are in rebuild mode and it would make sense for them to shop Marte on the trade market. The 31-year-old is under team control for two more seasons. Marte is coming off the best season of his career in which he set new highs in home runs, RBI and runs scored. He slashed .295/.342/.503 with 23 home runs, 82 RBI, 97 runs and 25 stolen bases. In fantasy terms he is a rare five-category stud. Moving to a new team could help his fantasy value -- the Pirates play in a pitcher-friendly park and haven't been able to surround him with much talent in the batting order. The Mets were one of the most active teams last offseason and could be again. Their lineup currently projects to start J.D. Davis in left field, Brandon Nimmo in center and Michael Conforto in right ... According to Jon Morosi of MLB.com, the Cubs have shown continued interest in trading for Royals' second baseman Whit Merrifield. The 30-year-old just finished the first season of an extremely team-friendly four-year, $16.25 million extension that he signed prior to the 2019 season. While he would be a perfect fit atop the Cubs' lineup, he'll require a significant haul of prospects in order to get a deal done ... Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Reds are among the clubs showing interest in Zack Wheeler. Cincinnati had interest in Yasmani Grandal and could potentially now pivot to Wheeler with Grandal off the market.

 The Reds' offense needs improvement more than their pitching, but adding Wheeler further strengthens a rotation that would look quite formidable. They'll have to fend off plenty of other suitors, though, as the market for the right-hander is looking pretty robust ... Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that the Phillies are pursuing Didi Gregorius. The Phillies already have Jean Segura, but if they added Gregorius the idea would be to move Segura to a different position or trade him. It's debatable whether Gregorius would be an upgrade at shortstop, but he no doubt has the endorsement of new Phils skipper Joe Girardi, who managed him in New York. The Reds have also been connected to Gregorius ... Jayson Stark of The Athletic reports that the Diamondbacks are "more open" to trading Robbie Ray than they have been in the past. Ray is projected to make more than $10 million in his final year of arbitration eligibility before hitting the free agent market next winter. Stark says that the D-backs are looking for "controllable pitching" in return for the left-hander. Ray's 4.34 ERA in 2019 was his highest in three years, but he also struck out a career-high 235 batters over 174 1/3 innings ... Cubs acquired RHP Jharel Cotton from the Athletics for cash considerations. The A's designated Cotton for assignment on Wednesday. The 27-year-old right-hander last pitched in the majors back in 2017 when he went 9-10 with a 5.58 ERA in 24 starts for Oakland. He underwent Tommy John elbow reconstruction surgery in late 2017 and missed the entire 2018 season. He made 18 minor-league rehab appearances in 2019 with unimpressive results. Cotton will serve as organizational depth in the Cubs' system and could reemerge as a reliever down the road.

American League Quick Hits: White Sox signed 1B Jose Abreu to a three-year, $50 million contract extension. Abreu accepted the team's qualifying offer last week, but his new contract will replace that deal and tack two additional years on. The veteran first baseman is coming off a season that saw him put up a .284/.330/.503 batting line with 33 home runs and 123 RBI. He will turn 33 in January ... Darren Wolfson of KSTP-TV reports that the Twins have "kicked the tires" on a few third basemen, including Josh Donaldson and Todd Frazier. The Twins currently have Miguel Sano penciled in at third base, but moving him to first base and non-tendering C.J. Cron "appears to be one of many options they’re discussing," per Wolfson. Donaldson's market looks to be pretty robust, so the Twins will have to bid aggressively to get him if that's the route they decide to take ... Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that the Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Reds, Braves and Rangers are "pretty heavily involved" in talks with Marcell Ozuna. Ozuna has also previously been connected to the White Sox, although it's unclear whether they'd still have the budget for him after signing Yasmani Grandal. Morosi adds that Ozuna could land a contract for as long as five years. While his performance the last two years in St. Louis was up and down, Ozuna is arguably the top free agent outfielder and he just turned 29 earlier this month ... The Mariners view outfielder Domingo Santana as a trade chip this offseason. General manager Jerry Dipoto views the starting outfield as Mitch Haniger in right field, Mallex Smith in center and Kyle Lewis in left. That would leave Santana on the small side of a platoon with Dan Vogelbach at designated hitter. The 27-year-old Santana doesn't fit into the Mariners' plan to build around youth. The club has elite outfield prospects Jared Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez on the way, with Jake Fraley being yet another intriguing young outfielder who has already made his debut. Santana was limited by injury in 2019 but hit well when able to play -- slashing .253/.329/.441 with 21 home runs and 69 RBI in 451 at-bats. He chipped in eight stolen bases as well despite being one of the largest players in the league. He should have a fair amount of trade value and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him on the move in the coming weeks.