Rankings and Opinions

 



The No. 1 spot: I had Christian Yelich at the top of my rankings when the draft guide debuted this year, barely ahead of Ronald Acuna Jr. That was before the Marcell Ozuna signing, though, and that added boost to the Braves lineup was enough to give Acuna the slightest of edges in my predictions. Acuna’s perch is a little more comfortable now as a result of the universal DH. While that should benefit the Brewers a little more than the Braves on the whole, Acuna’s status as a leadoff man gives him an extra lift, as he’ll be batting behind Ender Inciarte or Johan Camargo instead of the pitcher.

The No. 1 pitcher: That Jacob deGrom got the nod over Gerrit Cole originally was a function of his easier assignment in the NL East. Now that every game in the 2020 season will feature a designated hitter, there’s no longer much of a bias in favor of NL starters in my projections. Cole has assumed the top spot, and 16 of my top 30 SPs are American Leaguers. Of course, deGrom is still a strong No. 2, and while the schedule isn’t great for NL East pitchers, I see no reason to avoid him in drafts.

The second-tier shortstops: Beyond the first-round trio of Trevor Story, Trea Turner and Francisco Lindor, I placed Alex Bregman 17th, Fernando Tatis Jr. 22nd and Adalberto Mondesi 24th in my original top 300 this year. Now, though, Mondesi is 16th, Tatis is 17th and Bregman sits 22nd. Mondesi was iffy for Opening Day after shoulder surgery, but he should again be fully healthy and he looks like the best bet in the league for steals this year. Tatis was also dinged because of injury risk, but he’s more likely to get through 60 games than he was 162 and he’ll also benefit from getting out behind the pitcher in the Padres’ lineup. He might even DH on occasion.

Starting pitchers with injury histories: It’s the season without innings limits, and many of the pitchers who would be lousy bets to get through 30 starts in a normal year should be better positioned to pitch just 12 times. Tyler Glasnow, James Paxton, Charlie Morton, Yu Darvish and Rich Hill are among those moving up some in my rankings now that I’m not worrying much about durability, and Julio Urias, Jose Urquidy and Jesus Luzardo have moved into my top 30 SPs since innings just aren’t really a factor. If I had a draft tonight, I wouldn’t want to go nuts drafting starting pitchers, since a number will surely come up with strains and sprains while trying to quickly ramp up for the season. However, in late drafts, I’ll be changing my typical hitter-pitcher mix some, valuing the currently healthy pitchers higher (as compared to hitters) than I typically would.

Risky closers: Managers have itchy trigger fingers with closers during the best of times, and 60-game seasons certainly don’t qualify as the best of times. As a result, I’m not valuing upside with relievers as much as I usually would. Edwin Diaz opened up as my No. 3 closer, but if he blows a game in the first week of the season, he might never see another ninth-inning lead. He’s seventh now with the potential to tumble further if doesn’t look sharp next month. Craig Kimbrel and Nick Anderson have also slid some in my rankings, while Aroldis Chapman, Ken Giles and Sean Doolittle, all of whom have durability concerns, have moved up.

NL designated hitters moving up: Ryan Braun, Howie Kendrick and Wil Myers rated as the biggest beneficiaries of the universal DH in my rankings. Braun, who seemed destined to sit against the majority of righties as a result of the Avisail Garcia addition, jumped from No. 250 to No. 186 on my list. Kendrick is No. 201, and Myers comes in at No. 240. I’m also a lot more excited about Nick Senzel again, as the DH spot should free up room of the Reds to use him regularly in the outfield.

Ohtani Oh My

AL DH’s are helped, too: It doesn’t apply to all of them equally, but those American League designated hitters who can’t play the field no longer have to worry about interleague games on the schedule. In a typical season, that’s 5.6 percent of the time Nelson Cruz or Shohei Ohtani would be limited to pinch-hitting appearances. Taking that out of the equation lifted Cruz a couple of spots.

Boosts for NL leadoff men: As already mentioned in regards to Acuna and Tatis, it’s a pretty nice lift for NL leadoff men to be batting behind hitters instead of pitchers. It’s especially important for those batters with pop, like Mookie Betts, Kris Bryant and Jonathan Villar. Bryant had been among my least favorite picks this year because of his lofty price tag and lack of RBI opportunities. I still rate him as a poor value, but not to the same extent that he was a few months ago.
Of course, all of the adjusting I’ve done since the shutdown to take my projections from 162 games to 108 to 81 and now to 60 could look like small potatoes compared to what’s coming over the next four weeks. Some players will opt out of the season. Some will suffer new injuries or experience setbacks with previous ailments. Unfortunately, some will catch COVID-19, and while many of those cases could prove asymptomatic, it’s unclear how long it will take for anyone diagnosed with the virus to be cleared to return (it will require two negative tests).

Yelich & Mustard

I also need to dig in and make some adjustments to account for a schedule that sees teams play 10 games each against their division rivals and 20 games total against the corresponding division in the other league. That’d seem to benefit the Central division clubs, particularly the Twins, Indians and White Sox in the AL. 20 games each against the Tigers and Royals will be very nice, and while the other Central is no pushover, it’s probably the weakest division in the NL. I was quite a bit lower than the pack on Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi this spring, but given the schedule they’ll be facing, they definitely need to move up some in my rankings.
Anything goes in a 60-game season. We make our best guesses, but it’s not like projections are all that reliable for 162-game samples. Now we’re just taking a 37% chunk of that while also having little way to account for the three-month pause in between spring trainings and everything this virus could do to teams and players. It’s going to be a free-for-all, and I hope to have fun with it. However, when it’s over, we probably shouldn’t make many judgments based on the results.

Baseball hit a home run

Okay, let's try and be civil, and play some damn baseball and stop this feuding.

Commissioner of Baseball Robert D. Manfred, Jr. announced today that Major League Baseball anticipates beginning its 2020 regular season approximately one month from today, on July 23rd or July 24th.

The announcement follows confirmation today that the MLB Players Association has accepted the health and safety protocols that will guide MLB’s return to play and that players will be able to report for training by July 1st. The health and safety of players and employees will remain MLB’s foremost priorities in its return to play.

MLB is working with a variety of public health experts, infectious disease specialists and technology providers on a comprehensive approach that aims to facilitate a safe return.

MLB has submitted a 60-game regular season schedule for review by the Players Association. The proposed schedule will largely feature divisional play, with the remaining portion of each Club’s games against their opposite league’s corresponding geographical division (i.e., East vs. East, Central vs. Central and West vs. West), in order to mitigate travel. The vast majority of Major League Clubs are expected to conduct training at the ballparks in their primary home cities.

Commissioner Manfred said: “Major League Baseball is thrilled to announce that the 2020 season is on the horizon. We have provided the Players Association with a schedule to play 60 games and are excited to provide our great fans with Baseball again soon.”

Is it back from the dead ?

Okay, I just reported the death of the 2020 season, let me say that if the players union ratify the health and safety protocol by 5 pm today, baseball is indeed back. 60 games , well not quite what I was looking for, a compressed season, a sprint to the finish.

 By virtue of Commissioner Rob Manfred mandating a season we will have baseball once again. We’ll get 60 games of it (kinda, sorta, maybe), and we’re going to like it. We’re going to like the sweet swings and home runs; the big fastballs and bigger benders; the spin rates and RBI. Hell, we’ll even like Kevin Cash coming out to bring in the fourth pitcher of the inning in a six-run ball game. (He’ll find a way, regardless of the new rule on pitching changes). Absence makes the heart grow fonder, and our rough edges have been worn down to a smooth, forgiving surface, ready to welcome baseball however it may look.

Keep a close eye on 5 pm, because it is the deadline of all deadlines.

And it’s going to look different. We’re going to have different roster sizes and almost definitely more relievers, the part of baseball we all love most. Some guys won’t play, and hey, we’ll understand that because we’re all trying to be reasonable here. The chaos should cover up for their absence anyway, hopefully. We want to enjoy what we’ve been given, but not at the expense of other people’s health, especially if they (or their families) are high risk. 

All of that is going to nag at us, but not enough to override the joy we get from seeing real. live. baseball. After all, we’re all veterans at compartmentalization; this is nothing we can’t handle. It’s just … it’s been so long, and also we’ve been remarkably patient as the league and union haggled and halted, halted and haggled their way to this point. We deserve a little baseball, as a treat. And besides, that little voice we’re tired of hearing, that gnawing feeling in our gut … it won’t have time to overwhelm our elation because here come the playoffs.

It’ll all be so different but, also, so good. There will be bat flips and sliders, sliders that actually snap, unlike the ones from the grainy ‘90s footage we’ve all resorted to. Players will have their first hit balls returned to them with more procedure, and less frivolity, than ever before. Highlights and lowlights and six-feet-away hug watch will, we can only hope, add up to something close enough to the big leagues we know.

Major League Baseball is back. Let that sink in. After all the breaking news that was telling us nothing had changed, the non-offers and offers that were the same, the same worn piece of paper being creased and re-creased and slowly slid across the virtual table from the league to the association … MLB is back.

And it feels, well, good, but also maybe it’s more of a relief. I don’t know about you all, but I’m exhausted and maybe a little resentful. I’m glad baseball is coming back, it means a lot to me personally and professionally, but I begrudge the public, hamfisted way it has been delivered. 
The inability of the union and ownership to find their way to an expeditious agreement was frustrating, not only by virtue of its fact but also its insistent presence in our life. At every opportunity throughout this entire ordeal, we were buffeted with leaks and headlines, breaking news and breathless reports all pointing to the same dead-end that the last one had. 
There’s a strategy to this. When one side is responsible for 90 percent of the problem, making the audience equally sick of both parties is a net benefit. The league took more than 40 days from when Jeff Wilpon mentioned wanting to renegotiate the March agreement to Andrew Cuomo to actually making an offer. It took them until June 15 to make an offer for 100 percent pro rata—the terms they agreed to in March. An offer they seemingly made only as a hedge against a grievance from the union, and to run time off the clock so a shortened season implemented by the commissioner was harder to contest. 
These are not the terms under which fans rejoice in having baseball back. These are the terms under which it feels good to no longer have to hear about any of this shit. At least, for a little while.

Major League Baseball is back. Let that sink in. Really let it sink in. In the midst of double-digit players and staff testing positive for COVID-19, teams packing up their spring training facilities and relocating to their home stadiums, and spikes of positive tests in the regions of the countries that have been open the longest … baseball is back in the United States. Should it be? It’s fair to wonder where we’ll stand a month from now, when Re-Opening Day is scheduled to arrive.
The form in which baseball returns is important if the league wishes to complete its 60-game season. Beyond just the players, coaches, and umpires who will take the field every day, the health and well-being of everyone associated with the production of a game day, as well as their families, is of the utmost importance. It’s not even just COVID-19 at play here; it’s pitchers rushing through their training, batters grasping at timing, hamstrings cold in the middle of summer. It’s not clear that the league has seriously considered any of this. 
Sure, there is a 67-page document, but it falls well short of where it needs to be. They also haven’t been in touch with all the local officials they said they’d talk to, and that was weeks ago. Not to mention they weren’t even testing players or staff as they arrived at their spring training facilities, and we see how that went. Perhaps it’s unfair to some degree that this falls on baseball as a governing body. There’s an argument that this shouldn’t be their decision to make, that the government (federal, state, or local) should be taking this decision out of the league’s hands. But that isn’t the reality we’re currently occupying. In this one, the determination is up to league officials and union officials, and to some degree individual players, to decide on their future amidst a great many external pressures. There are many incentives that could drive all three groups forward, when perhaps the best move is to take a step back.
There’s every chance that players and coaches arrive, the season begins and it turns out it just isn’t feasible to do this safely. An entire team recently withdrew from the National Women’s Soccer League’s tournament, citing a large swath of the team and staff contracting COVID-19. Does MLB have a plan in place should something similar happen? Do we as fans have our own, internal, one, if things really do fall apart? Is it good enough to withstand scrutiny, and does it keep the safety of players, staff, and others at the forefront? 

A Pox on both your houses...

 I wanted to report this news, bad as it is.

Major League Baseball issued the following statement Monday night.

“Today, the Major League Baseball Players Association informed us that they have rejected the agreement framework developed by Commissioner Manfred and Tony Clark. Needless to say, we are disappointed by this development.

“The framework provided an opportunity for MLB and its players to work together to confront the difficulties and challenges presented by the pandemic. It gave our fans the chance to see an exciting new Postseason format. And, it offered players significant benefits including.

1) The universal DH for two years
2) A guaranteed $25 million in playoff pools in 2020
3) $33 million in forgiven salary advances that would increase the take home pay of 61% of Major League players
4) Overall earnings for players of 104 percent of prorated salary
5) Over the last two days, MLB agreed to remove expanded Postseason in 2021 in order to address player concerns

“In view of this rejection, the MLB Clubs have unanimously voted to proceed with the 2020 season under the terms of the March 26th Agreement. The provisions listed above will not be operative.
“In order to produce a schedule with a specific number of games, we are asking that the Players Association provide to us by 5:00 p.m. (ET) tomorrow with two pieces of information. The first is whether players will be able to report to camp within seven days (by July 1st).

The second is whether the Players Association will agree on the Operating Manual which contains the health and safety protocols necessary to give us the best opportunity to conduct and complete our regular season and Postseason.”

"A pox on both their houses " Act 111 Scene 1, Romeo and Juliet

Commissioner's notice

Commissioner of Baseball Robert D. Manfred, Jr. issued the following statement today:

“At my request, Tony Clark and I met for several hours yesterday in Phoenix.

We left that meeting with a jointly developed framework that we agreed could form the basis of an agreement and subject to conversations with our respective constituents.

 I summarized that framework numerous times in the meeting and sent Tony a written summary today.

Consistent with our conversations yesterday, I am encouraging the Clubs to move forward and I trust Tony is doing the same.”

Now, take a knee and say a silent prayer for Baseball, amen

Let the Games begin ?

Sorry, couldn't find an image that incl a puck

The tentative reopening of sport in North America gathers pace this weekend with a PGA-Tour backed golf event in Florida and the return of NASCAR in North Carolina.

Sans the Confederate flag.

The events come as professional sports leagues across the region are attempting to hammer out solutions which will allow them to resume or save seasons put on hold by the coronavirus pandemic.

 Here is an update of where other major sport leagues stand as they map out their road to a return.

BASEBALL

Major League Baseball owners have approved a plan which will see a drastically shortened season starting in early July at ballparks which will be closed to spectators.

The baseball season was due to start on March 26 but was put on hold as the COVID-19 crisis erupted. It means teams now face the prospect of an 82-game campaign instead of the usual 162-game marathon.

The structure of the abbreviated season will also be radically different, with teams mostly playing against opponents from their own divisions, as well as the same division in the opposite league. The move will cut down travel and expenses.

Any return, however, would require backing from the MLB Players Association, which has voiced misgivings about owners' proposals to restructure player contracts for 2020 to help absorb financial losses estimated at roughly $100 million per team.

FOOTBALL🏈

Major League Soccer shut down in March after only two weeks of the season and arguably has more to lose than many other professional sports from a protracted suspension of competition.

MLS clubs derive the bulk of their earnings from game-day revenues, meaning the league will face a brutal financial hit until fans are allowed back in the stadiums.

Reports this week have suggested that MLS chiefs are aiming to end the shutdown by sending all 26 teams to Florida to participate in a stand alone tournament played inside a secure "bubble" at Disney World's ESPN Wide World of Sports complex.

According to the MLS proposal, teams would head to Florida in June for one month of training, before the tournament kicks off roughly three to four weeks later.

The games would not be part of the regular season, and it remains unclear when or if the formal 2020 campaign would be completed.

BASKETBALL 🏀

The National Basketball Association is reportedly eyeing a return which will see all 30 teams based in one or two locations, with Orlando and Las Vegas believed to be the front-runners.

However, the fine detail of what an eventual return to competition will look like remains shrouded in uncertainty.

While any return is expected to take place in empty arenas, it is unclear whether the resumption will pick up where the regular season left off in March, or whether the league will jump straight into an expanded playoffs with a play-in to determine teams beyond the usual 16 spots.

NBA Commissioner Adam Silver has told players that in the absence of a COVID-19 vaccine, fan-less arenas may be a feature of the league into 2021.

Silver said this week the league expects to study outbreak and testing developments for another two to four weeks before making a decision about a return to competition.

HOCKEY

With coronavirus shutting down the National Hockey League just days before regular season was supposed to end on April 4, the league could jump straight into the playoffs if and when it returns.

NHL commissioner Gary Bettman this week voiced his determination to finish the season but stressed that any modified format would have to preserve the integrity of the competition.

"It's got to be fair, it's got to have integrity, and if we have to do it over the summer on some modified basis, then we'll do it on that basis," Bettman said.

The NHL is reportedly planning to structure a return around four "hub" cities, with teams almost certainly playing in empty arenas.

The New York Post meanwhile has reported that one reopening plan under consideration is a 24-team tournament that would include a best-of-three, play-in round.

Jays draft an Auston, again

 No, this is not a misprint, The Blue Jays drafted Austin Martin, not Auston Matthews.

Scout Shane Farrell said he was “surprised,” but also “prepared.”

And then, eventually, “ecstatic.”
In a wildly unpredictable first round of the MLB draft on Wednesday night, Vanderbilt utility man Austin Martin fell to the Toronto Blue Jays at No. 5.


 That meant Farrell, Toronto’s amateur scouting director, had the honor of taking the player many believed to be the "best pure hitter" in the 2020 class.

“Obviously we’re keeping an eye on the mock drafts as they come out throughout the week and are aware of industry consensus,” Farrell told reporters.

 “But it really started to shake up at picks two and three and we were surprised a bit but certainly prepared to make that selection.

“We were ecstatic to have the chance to pick Austin.”

It seemed every baseball pundit and his/her cousin — at sites like MLB.com, The Athletic, ESPN, CBS Sports and Bleacher Report — had called for Martin to go No. 2 to the Baltimore Orioles. Instead, those mock drafts were ruined almost instantly.


So how exactly did Martin, who MLB.com’s Jim Callis deemed the “best pure hitter in the draft,” fall to Toronto? A pick-by-pick breakdown helps to explain.

Jays new "car"