February 3rd, 2014 and waiting for pitchers and catchers, and Orioles in 14'

The Plate

Find me anyone after the Super Bowl who is not actively checking when the boys report.

Most as of the end of the Super Bowl have started planning that winter trip to south Florida, or Arizona to follow the dream.

Right now the fields are covered, the grounds keepers have begun to cut and add more seed, and trim the foul lines.

The Field

Florida awaits the players so until then, we shall begin a short analysis of the teams in the American League.


Baltimore Orioles

Batters

Whether by design or not, Baltimore appears to be doing a bit of work with the stars-and-scrubs model of roster construction at the moment. Chris Davis, J.J. Hardy , Adam Jones,Manny Machado ,Matt Weiters : these are the names of five Oriole position players who are projected to record something better than three wins in 2014. Meanwhile, no other batter both (a) presently employed by Baltimore and also (b) expected to begin the season as a starter — no other such player is projected to produce anything better than even one win.
Provided the club is still looking to add talent, this actually isn’t an entirely unenviable state of affairs. Where it might be difficult to upgrade a roster full entirely of average players, there are very clear means by which to improve this roster. Like at DH, for example. Or second base, for other example. Or left field. Or even right field, where starter Nick Markakis has managed just three wins over the last three seasons.

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Manny Machado	R	21	3B	684	84	173	43	5	19	80	8	6
Matt Wieters	B	28	C	573	62	129	28	0	21	80	2	0
J.J. Hardy	R	31	SS	612	70	150	26	1	22	72	1	1
Adam Jones	R	28	CF	662	88	172	32	2	28	92	13	5
Chris Davis	L	28	1B	612	83	145	27	1	41	107	3	3
Michael Ohlman	R	23	C	388	42	92	20	2	8	39	4	0
Jonathan Schoop	R	22	2B	471	55	107	19	1	15	51	3	4
Michael Morse	R	32	RF	427	52	100	19	0	20	57	0	1
Nate McLouth	L	32	LF	482	57	103	21	3	11	35	17	4
Ryan Flaherty	L	27	2B	391	39	84	16	2	13	47	3	2
Danny Valencia	R	29	3B	513	55	123	29	2	16	68	2	4
Nick Markakis	L	30	RF	639	72	159	29	2	12	62	5	2
Cord Phelps	B	27	2B	475	51	104	21	3	10	50	5	4
Jason Pridie	L	30	CF	368	36	80	13	2	10	35	6	2
Lew Ford	R	37	CF	198	22	45	12	1	7	24	2	1
Steve Clevenger	L	28	C	298	27	70	14	1	4	27	0	1
Luis Exposito	R	27	C	319	30	67	17	0	7	31	0	1
Jemile Weeks	B	27	2B	592	67	129	20	7	4	38	17	6
Chris Snyder	R	33	C	260	26	50	8	0	9	33	0	1
Steve Pearce	R	31	DH	223	23	47	10	0	7	27	2	1
Trayvon Robinson	B	26	CF	478	50	95	17	2	13	47	15	6
Brian Roberts	B	36	2B	214	21	48	9	1	4	25	3	1
Alexi Casilla	B	29	2B	243	30	54	12	2	1	21	13	2
Conor Jackson	R	32	RF	214	21	47	10	0	4	19	2	1
Henry Urrutia	L	27	RF	428	45	114	17	2	9	41	1	1
Nolan Reimold	R	30	DH	257	29	54	8	1	10	28	3	1
Taylor Teagarden	R	30	C	143	11	25	4	0	4	14	0	0
Wilson Betemit	B	32	3B	253	26	56	12	1	7	27	1	1
Glynn Davis	R	22	CF	496	43	106	16	2	1	28	22	12
Chris Dickerson	L	32	DH	282	32	55	12	1	6	23	10	2
Francisco Peguero	R	26	RF	454	51	111	15	4	7	47	8	3
Brandon Wood	R	29	SS	313	27	61	12	1	6	28	1	0
Christian Walker	R	23	1B	486	48	122	23	0	9	45	3	4
Chih-Hsien Chiang	L	26	RF	531	50	121	29	2	10	52	2	2
Brenden Webb	L	24	RF	452	39	72	15	2	8	33	9	6

Pitchers
Conveniently for the narrative created by the author above, the Baltimore starting rotation is constructed in almost the exact opposite way as its field players. Where there’s a considerable gap in talent between the best and worst of the latter, the former is at least — composed of pitchers likely to produce similar outcomes (if by different means). Here, from best to worst, are the projected ERA minuses (“ERA-s,” plural?) of the pitchers most likely to begin the season in the O’s rotation: 99, 100, 100, 103, 104. That, in the event that the reader is unacquainted with arithmetic, is only a five-point difference between starter No. 1 and No. 5. Not a bad thing, that, but indicative of a club lacking in high-end starters.
Insofar as it won’t feature Jim Johnson as closer, the Baltimore relief corps will have changed entering 2014. Insofar as Johnson-clone Ryan Webb— signed for two years and $4.5 million after being non-tendered by Miami — insofar as Webb will pitch for Baltimore, the relief corps will actually remain largely unchanged. Generally average, is what that would appear to mean.

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Chris Tillman	R	26	32	32	187.0	167	66	27	176	92	86
Wei-Yin Chen	L	28	27	27	160.0	129	46	21	161	79	74
Bud Norris	R	29	30	29	173.3	158	64	22	172	89	83
Miguel Gonzalez	R	30	29	24	150.7	117	49	20	147	75	70
Kevin Gausman	R	23	27	27	147.3	129	36	18	151	75	70
Mike Wright	R	24	25	25	137.0	93	36	17	148	73	68
Scott Feldman	R	31	26	22	128.7	93	38	18	132	68	64
Jason Hammel	R	31	25	22	132.7	100	48	18	138	73	68
Darren O’Day	R	31	66	0	59.3	62	15	7	51	24	22
Dylan Bundy	R	21	13	13	78.0	59	33	10	81	43	40
Zach Britton	L	26	26	25	133.3	93	61	17	145	78	73
Eduardo Rodriguez	L	21	23	23	120.3	76	49	15	132	71	66
Brian Matusz	L	27	69	0	59.0	58	21	6	54	26	24
Tommy Hunter	R	27	70	0	81.0	69	17	12	79	39	36
Francisco Rodriguez	R	32	62	0	58.7	61	23	7	53	27	25
Troy Patton	L	28	51	0	58.7	47	16	7	58	28	26
T.J. McFarland	L	25	31	14	109.7	69	45	13	122	65	61
Ryan Webb	R	28	64	0	69.0	46	24	7	71	34	32
Kelvin De La Cruz	L	25	53	0	68.3	63	37	7	64	34	32
Zech Zinicola	R	29	36	0	45.7	35	16	5	47	24	22
Tim Bascom	R	29	25	13	88.3	55	46	10	96	55	51
Oliver Drake	R	27	32	0	42.7	34	18	5	42	22	21
Tsuyoshi Wada	L	33	17	17	93.3	70	41	16	103	60	56
Edgmer Escalona	R	27	47	0	57.3	48	20	9	57	31	29
Eddie Gamboa	R	29	24	18	103.7	61	43	15	117	66	62
Brad Brach	R	28	71	0	74.0	71	31	12	73	41	38
Tim Berry	L	23	26	25	132.3	76	50	19	155	86	80
Daniel Schlereth	L	28	24	0	24.0	22	18	3	23	15	14
Jon Rauch	R	35	41	0	36.3	28	12	7	39	22	21
Steve Johnson	R	26	27	18	100.3	84	57	17	105	66	62
Nick Additon	L	26	22	20	112.7	81	49	21	124	75	70
Devin Jones	R	23	26	19	117.3	75	43	21	136	78	73
Daniel McCutchen	R	31	39	3	61.7	41	25	10	69	40	37
Brock Huntzinger	R	25	41	7	78.3	55	38	13	87	51	48
Mike Belfiore	L	25	39	0	70.3	58	36	12	75	45	42
Chris Jones	L	25	41	0	68.0	41	40	8	76	44	41
Jake Pettit	L	27	24	23	124.3	70	46	23	148	88	82
Tim Alderson	R	25	39	4	80.0	56	33	16	91	56	52
Tyler Wilson	R	24	35	25	152.7	96	59	29	178	108	101
Zach Clark	R	30	24	22	116.7	50	71	17	141	87	81
Josh Stinson	R	26	38	21	128.3	67	79	20	148	93	87
Mark Hendrickson	L	40	31	0	51.3	23	21	11	64	41	38

***

Baltimore's season comes down to their pitching staff and the prospects coming through the system.

Bench/Prospects
One will note the author’s careful wording in the Batters section above regarding those field players who are projected  to produce less than a win in 2014. The wording is necessary, on account of there are actually two players in the organization, Michael Ohlman and Johnathan Schoop projected to approach league-average baseball value in 2014. The former is a catcher/corner-type; the latter, an infielder who’s split his minor-league career between second and short. Neither appears likely to begin the season, however, with a substantial role at the major-league level. Among pitchers, one finds celebrated prospect Dylan Bundy‘s name among those projected here. He’s expected to return at some point in the middle of the season following Tommy John surgery.

It is almost Christmas

Time for Santa Claus to look at his list to see what the Jays, Leafs and Raps are asking for.


Top 10 Asks

10) Leafs would like David Clarkson to stop taking stupid suspensions since they paid him $ 100 million dollars ! Seems like it.

9) Raptors looking for a bench, calling are carpenters, Raps need a bench.

8) The Argos jumped in and hoped they could be granted some new coaches for Defense and Special Teams, cause the other teams stole them.

7) The Jays are trying to get some cheap parts for replacing Arencibia, and Bonafacio, and maybe Lind.

6) Leafs would like a win, no, just a win before Christmas

5) Raptors want to stop owners crapping on hopeful trades for Kyle Lowry.

4) Argonauts would be hoping Zach Collarus is kept and them Ottawans do not take him

3) Jays to get lucky and find the Yanks and Orioles shave their budgets...hahaha

2) The Leafs are still asking for that win streak to vault them back into contention

And the number # 1 ask this Holiday Season if the Toronto TFC, and what do they want for Christmas ? Somebody get them some players that can actually play and a coach that does not want to leave after 2 weeks.

Well, Santa is no miracle worker, but he will see what he can do.....

Sox are red, sox ain't white, sox are champs, to the cards g'nite

In 6 games, the Red Sox ended a long struggle from last place, through mad bombers at the Marathon, through doubt, and scorn.


Then the season unfolded, with a new breed of Sox, their whiskers barely showing.




Sox showed themselves, and the city that they were Boston Proud, which became their season long battle hymn.



The beards of Boston, the rally monkey, the A's handle bar mustaches, these are all methods of team bonding , and Boston's beards were the NHL's version of playoff beards, just half the season, plus the pulling and tugging.



Ortiz and his Sox family, Dave O doing a Willie Stargell like post season impersonation led his group and like Stargell ages like fine wine.

Oh those Indians !

Who dat ? Who has climbed into the Wild Card ?


The Clevelands have caught up to the Rangers, who while not quite in free fall, are certainly making it easier on those below them. The Rays had a pitching gem pitched last night, an 8 and a third game tossed by Mr. Cobb.


The Tribe had 7 shutout innings from reclamation project Scott Kazmir over the Astros, who really want the calender to move faster.



The schedule for them Indians is way too favorable, give them a week and they may have passes the Rays.  This might set up an interesting AL playoff match up as follows.


If the A's can catch Boston and have the best record, they would play the Tribe. Setting up the Tigers and Sox, in a real pick'em series.  Tiger pitching I think would prevail. If Sox and Tribe win, it sets up Francona against his old team.

Watch the Tribe in the last 8-9 games, and just so I can say I said so, there is a chance of a 3 way chance of a tie in the AL Wild card, and NL Central, if the Cards falter. 

I see the Cards winning outright, and the Pirates hosting a one game playoff with the Reds, the other races are done, and they are setting up rotations and will rest veterans with the call ups.

After the Indians and Eric Bedard finish off the Astros, they get the sad sack White Sox, who are destined for the laundry, as there sox are dirty.

After a deuce with Chicago, they finish with the Twins, the 2nd worst record. 

Here come the Tribe.

September or Bust

For most teams, the season final few days represents a chance to show coaches and scouts that they belong.

A base hit beaten out, that extra stretch to get to first, or reach that fly ball. Some rookies get forgotten, some leave the fall with a chance, a chance to impress. They hope the tape shows they have some promise.

Their winter will be a long cold winter in wait.  Perhaps some team will tap them on the shoulder and whisper "winter ball".  That chance to fly to Arizona, South America, to extend their dreams awhile longer.

Some winters there is no call, and they train, the work themselves in hope to get a spring opportunity. Work hard a coach says, "I will coach, and they bust their butts from October to February, maybe the phone will ring for them. 

Some old players simply hope to get a gig in Winter Ball to show the scouts they have something left to give. Some power, some quickness, some skill. They learned to conquer the inside pitch, and can make the throw to the plate.  Some just want the season not to end.

The dreamers are many, and the ones who enjoy the free beer, the beaches, the sights, and the adulation of fervent fans in Puerto Rico, Cuba, Colombia and Mexico.



For the rest of us, it's just a bloody cold winter.

October baseball is an exclusive club, full of high expectations, crowded parks, cool nights, and cameras in faces. The images broadcast around the world.  Nothing wrong with that, any players dream to play deep into October.

Scouts and coaches will break down the film and decide if certain players need winter ball to develop skills.

And some will settle for 3 months of training, somewhere in the sun where they can prepare for next spring. Life will renew itself, as it always does.

And others will lay on the beach wishing it was them, and just dream.

They're at the final turn...

Time to celebrate.

In Boston, they made the post season after finishing last...last.

In Dodgertown...they won the NL West, and celebrated in the Zona outfield pool.

Soon the Tigers will be next, and Atheltics and Braves.

The Cards, Reds and Pirates I think will all make it, but the Nationals still have a shot.



Teams still to decide are the Rays, the Rangers, and the hopefuls, the Orioles, Yankees, Indians and the Royals. The Indians have the easiest schedule down the stretch, but are still chasing the Rays and Rangers.  I think one of the Rays or Rangers will falter, but no idea which. The Tribe I think will  be the recipient of good fortune and playing non contenders.

As the NFL begins, it means that the regular season is ending.  It may go down to the final week, I think the National League Central will depend on the Reds staying relevant. The Reds are really working to keep the Nats at bay, and to try and beat out the other Wild Card holder to get the 1 game at home.  Frankly, I think the Pirates will win the wild card if they don't win the division.

And it all comes down to key hits, and starting pitching, doesn't it ?


Too early to pick favorites, but Tigers, Red Sox and Dodgers are all top of my list, with the Cards in the mix with the pedigree of post season mojo.

2 weeks left, much can happen, but 6 AL Wild Card contenders, I'd bet that the herd will culled down to 3-4 after next week, if that.

A Ranger and Rays win streak will eliminate the Yanks, Royals and O's, as mentioned I think the Tribe will battle to the end.

Tight Races

Races are close, so tight its like a big pile up.

Cards keep fighting with the Pirates and Red Sox and the Rays war on into September.  30 days and roughly 25 games, praying for good weather.
Hoping in tight races that the other guy gets rained out, and gets double headers.

Twins have dealt off some usable pieces, but as you can see, they keep the faith. They enter the month on a youth movement. Other than Mauer, you are hard pressed to recognize their players.
However, like the photo, its fun to watch the young players. They are tight. Okay, nuff said.

Jays are largely doing the same thing.  Edwin and Reyes play on, but they have kids in many spots, but oh I like the Twins.

 

After watching the races today, we see the races tighten more, The Cards win, the Rays as well and so another day off the schedule.

So much fun in September.