Giancarlo Stanton and Justin Upton are among those to have cleared waivers, but if a star is going to be moved this month, it’s probably going to be Justin Verlander. Houston keeps getting brought up as the most likely destination.
It’s easy to see why it makes sense for the Tigers to move on. They’re set to pay Verlander, Miguel Cabrera, Jordan Zimmerman and Victor Martinez a combined $100 million next year. They’d have another $22 million committed to Justin Upton unless he opts out of his current deal. The only one of those contracts set to expire after next year is Martinez’s. It just doesn’t seem realistic that they can rebuild on the fly and still contend with so much committed to one-fifth of the team, especially with Zimmerman and Martinez looking like sunk costs. Shedding Verlander’s $28 million per season through 2019 would help get the payroll under control, and while the move would presumably doom the Tigers’ chances for the next two years, things seem pretty bleak regardless.
The Astros have to be feeling a little better about things after Dallas Keuchel, who had three poor outings after returning from the DL, pitched 6 2/3 innings of one-run ball Sunday against the Rangers. Still, they don’t know what they’re getting from Lance McCullers in October and I don’t think Collin McHugh is going to emerge as a quality postseason option. Adding Verlander wouldn’t promise them anything, either, but he’s a possibility to throw seven strong innings in a postseason game in a way that Charlie Morton or Brad Peacock probably isn’t. That seems a little more important for the Astros than it might be the Yankees or the Indians, given that the bullpen looks iffy with Will Harris hurt and Chris Devenski having worn down some under a too-heavy workload.
Is that worth $64 million through 2019? I’m not sure. The Astros don’t need Verlander to get to the postseason, and the playoffs are largely a crapshoot anyway. The Indians nearly won the World Series last year with Trevor Bauer, Josh Tomlin and Ryan Merritt backing up Corey Kluber in the rotation. The Astros can top that without McCullers, and if McCullers comes back strong, he might be a better bet than Verlander in a Game 2 anyway. If the Tigers were just trying to dump Verlander’s contract, then, sure, the Astros can afford to take it and probably should. The Tigers, though, are going to want multiple quality prospects, and the Astros shouldn’t go that route, not when they’re so well set up already.
American League notes
- The Astros’ recent bad luck with injuries continued when Brian McCann joined Evan Gattis (concussion) on the disabled list Monday due to a knee problem. They could do just fine without one of their catchers, but losing both leaves them with Juan Centeno and Max Stassi behind the plate for now. Centeno likely will get the bulk of the starts. It’s hard to say who will be back first between McCann and Gattis. Gattis is still dealing with symptoms, so there’s just no timetable for him right now.
- Rick Hahn’s plan with Tyler Clippard worked to perfection: forced to take him in the Todd Frazier deal with the Yankees, the White Sox used him as a closer for a couple of weeks and he pitched just well enough to make the Astros want to give him a try. Now the White Sox are again scrambling to find someone to save whatever few leads they’re able to cobble together the rest of the way. Juan Minaya seems like the best bet at the moment; he’s sporting a 4.61 ERA overall, but he’s at 2.87 over 15 2/3 innings during his current stint in the majors. He throws 95 mph and has the kind of strikeout rate (36 in 27 1/3 innings) that teams want from a closer. I wouldn’t rush to pick him up in a mixed league, but if I were desperate, he’s the White Sox reliever I’d try.
- Rafael Devers… wow. Sunday’s homer off Aroldis Chapman’s 103-mph fastball -- in a lefty-lefty matchup -- was an incredibly impressive feat, and in his very next at-bat, he hit a screamer the opposite way off a reliever in Tommy Kahnle who has been nearly as tough as any righty in the game this year. After 17 games, Devers has a 1.078 OPS. It won’t always seem this easy, but he certainly looks like a monster, a guy capable of emerging as one of the league’s best players. He’s already shaping up as a top-10 third baseman for 2018, and that’s a pretty loaded position.
- Chapman held on for the save Tuesday against the Mets, but not before giving up his second homer in two appearances (and of the season), this one to 21-year-old Amed Rosario. The Yankees might back off Chapman for a brief spell, but I don’t think it would turn into a long-term switch; Chapman is vulnerable, but his velocity is intact and, even with the swings and misses well down, there still hasn’t been a whole lot of hard contact against him, at least not prior to Sunday. Though Chapman probably won’t be the Yankees’ best reliever going forward, he’s still the one that makes the most sense in the ninth, since you don’t want to start creating situations in which he comes into games with men on base. If Chapman does get a break, I imagine David Robertson would be picked over Dellin Betances to replace him, even though Betances has retained the eighth-inning role since Robertson was acquired.
- With Matt Belisle getting the day off after blowing a save Saturday, Trevor Hildenberger notched his first career save Sunday against the Tigers. I’ve quickly grown fond of Hildenberger, a 26-year-old sidearmer who relies on his excellent changeup for strikeouts. He sporting a 3.13 ERA for the Twins, but his peripherals are even better; he has a 26/3 K/BB ratio and he’s allowed two homers in 23 innings. There’s no way he’s going to be a long-term closer, but he’s my favorite guy in the Minnesota pen right now and he could get more saves if Belisle stumbles.
- In signing a minor league contract with the Blue Jays, Brett Anderson found a team willing to take him on and give him a chance to audition for 2018. Anderson’s latest lost year had him sporting an 8.18 ERA in six starts for the Cubs. Since making 31 starts with a 3.69 ERA for the Dodgers in 2015, he’s given up 35 earned runs in 33 1/3 innings in the majors. Still, his velocity was OK before he got hurt again and his groundball ability would seem to be even more useful now that everyone is hitting homers again. He’ll probably get several starts in September.
- Bud Norris has pitched himself completely out of the saves mix in Anaheim after giving up 13 runs over a span of seven appearances. Cam Bedrosian and Kenyon Middleton have split the last four saves, with Blake Parker, the Angels’ best reliever this year, remaining confined to a setup role. It seems like Mike Scioscia doesn’t believe Parker has the “closer’s mentality,” so Bedrosian appears to be the best bet going forward. The 23-year-old Middleton has emerged as a decent reliever this year, but his 4.12 ERA and 4.38 FIP don’t match up with Bedrosian’s 3.67 ERA and impressive 2.32 FIP.
- The Rangers have had just one save all month. It still looks like Alex Claudio is Jeff Banister’s preferred choice in the ninth, but he has given up seven hits over 2 1/3 innings in his last two appearances. Apart from one bad appearance last month in a game the Rangers were already losing, Matt Bush has been terrific, allowing a total of eight hits and striking out 21 in 16 2/3 innings since the beginning of July. He’s gone scoreless in 16 of 17 appearances. Claudio is the guy for now, but it could flip back to Bush if Claudio takes a blown save or two.
It’s easy to see why it makes sense for the Tigers to move on. They’re set to pay Verlander, Miguel Cabrera, Jordan Zimmerman and Victor Martinez a combined $100 million next year. They’d have another $22 million committed to Justin Upton unless he opts out of his current deal. The only one of those contracts set to expire after next year is Martinez’s. It just doesn’t seem realistic that they can rebuild on the fly and still contend with so much committed to one-fifth of the team, especially with Zimmerman and Martinez looking like sunk costs. Shedding Verlander’s $28 million per season through 2019 would help get the payroll under control, and while the move would presumably doom the Tigers’ chances for the next two years, things seem pretty bleak regardless.
The Astros have to be feeling a little better about things after Dallas Keuchel, who had three poor outings after returning from the DL, pitched 6 2/3 innings of one-run ball Sunday against the Rangers. Still, they don’t know what they’re getting from Lance McCullers in October and I don’t think Collin McHugh is going to emerge as a quality postseason option. Adding Verlander wouldn’t promise them anything, either, but he’s a possibility to throw seven strong innings in a postseason game in a way that Charlie Morton or Brad Peacock probably isn’t. That seems a little more important for the Astros than it might be the Yankees or the Indians, given that the bullpen looks iffy with Will Harris hurt and Chris Devenski having worn down some under a too-heavy workload.
Is that worth $64 million through 2019? I’m not sure. The Astros don’t need Verlander to get to the postseason, and the playoffs are largely a crapshoot anyway. The Indians nearly won the World Series last year with Trevor Bauer, Josh Tomlin and Ryan Merritt backing up Corey Kluber in the rotation. The Astros can top that without McCullers, and if McCullers comes back strong, he might be a better bet than Verlander in a Game 2 anyway. If the Tigers were just trying to dump Verlander’s contract, then, sure, the Astros can afford to take it and probably should. The Tigers, though, are going to want multiple quality prospects, and the Astros shouldn’t go that route, not when they’re so well set up already.
American League notes
- The Astros’ recent bad luck with injuries continued when Brian McCann joined Evan Gattis (concussion) on the disabled list Monday due to a knee problem. They could do just fine without one of their catchers, but losing both leaves them with Juan Centeno and Max Stassi behind the plate for now. Centeno likely will get the bulk of the starts. It’s hard to say who will be back first between McCann and Gattis. Gattis is still dealing with symptoms, so there’s just no timetable for him right now.
- Rick Hahn’s plan with Tyler Clippard worked to perfection: forced to take him in the Todd Frazier deal with the Yankees, the White Sox used him as a closer for a couple of weeks and he pitched just well enough to make the Astros want to give him a try. Now the White Sox are again scrambling to find someone to save whatever few leads they’re able to cobble together the rest of the way. Juan Minaya seems like the best bet at the moment; he’s sporting a 4.61 ERA overall, but he’s at 2.87 over 15 2/3 innings during his current stint in the majors. He throws 95 mph and has the kind of strikeout rate (36 in 27 1/3 innings) that teams want from a closer. I wouldn’t rush to pick him up in a mixed league, but if I were desperate, he’s the White Sox reliever I’d try.
- Rafael Devers… wow. Sunday’s homer off Aroldis Chapman’s 103-mph fastball -- in a lefty-lefty matchup -- was an incredibly impressive feat, and in his very next at-bat, he hit a screamer the opposite way off a reliever in Tommy Kahnle who has been nearly as tough as any righty in the game this year. After 17 games, Devers has a 1.078 OPS. It won’t always seem this easy, but he certainly looks like a monster, a guy capable of emerging as one of the league’s best players. He’s already shaping up as a top-10 third baseman for 2018, and that’s a pretty loaded position.
- Chapman held on for the save Tuesday against the Mets, but not before giving up his second homer in two appearances (and of the season), this one to 21-year-old Amed Rosario. The Yankees might back off Chapman for a brief spell, but I don’t think it would turn into a long-term switch; Chapman is vulnerable, but his velocity is intact and, even with the swings and misses well down, there still hasn’t been a whole lot of hard contact against him, at least not prior to Sunday. Though Chapman probably won’t be the Yankees’ best reliever going forward, he’s still the one that makes the most sense in the ninth, since you don’t want to start creating situations in which he comes into games with men on base. If Chapman does get a break, I imagine David Robertson would be picked over Dellin Betances to replace him, even though Betances has retained the eighth-inning role since Robertson was acquired.
- With Matt Belisle getting the day off after blowing a save Saturday, Trevor Hildenberger notched his first career save Sunday against the Tigers. I’ve quickly grown fond of Hildenberger, a 26-year-old sidearmer who relies on his excellent changeup for strikeouts. He sporting a 3.13 ERA for the Twins, but his peripherals are even better; he has a 26/3 K/BB ratio and he’s allowed two homers in 23 innings. There’s no way he’s going to be a long-term closer, but he’s my favorite guy in the Minnesota pen right now and he could get more saves if Belisle stumbles.
- In signing a minor league contract with the Blue Jays, Brett Anderson found a team willing to take him on and give him a chance to audition for 2018. Anderson’s latest lost year had him sporting an 8.18 ERA in six starts for the Cubs. Since making 31 starts with a 3.69 ERA for the Dodgers in 2015, he’s given up 35 earned runs in 33 1/3 innings in the majors. Still, his velocity was OK before he got hurt again and his groundball ability would seem to be even more useful now that everyone is hitting homers again. He’ll probably get several starts in September.
- Bud Norris has pitched himself completely out of the saves mix in Anaheim after giving up 13 runs over a span of seven appearances. Cam Bedrosian and Kenyon Middleton have split the last four saves, with Blake Parker, the Angels’ best reliever this year, remaining confined to a setup role. It seems like Mike Scioscia doesn’t believe Parker has the “closer’s mentality,” so Bedrosian appears to be the best bet going forward. The 23-year-old Middleton has emerged as a decent reliever this year, but his 4.12 ERA and 4.38 FIP don’t match up with Bedrosian’s 3.67 ERA and impressive 2.32 FIP.
- The Rangers have had just one save all month. It still looks like Alex Claudio is Jeff Banister’s preferred choice in the ninth, but he has given up seven hits over 2 1/3 innings in his last two appearances. Apart from one bad appearance last month in a game the Rangers were already losing, Matt Bush has been terrific, allowing a total of eight hits and striking out 21 in 16 2/3 innings since the beginning of July. He’s gone scoreless in 16 of 17 appearances. Claudio is the guy for now, but it could flip back to Bush if Claudio takes a blown save or two.
National League notes
- That Chad Bettis returned from testicular cancer at all this season was an incredible feat; he was originally diagnosed last November and then needed an additional round of treatment in March after learning the cancer had spread. That he did so with seven scoreless innings against the Braves on Monday was unbelievable. Bettis was an underrated cog in the Rockies’ rotation in 2015 and 2016, putting up ERA+s of 110 and 101, respectively. Ideally, his return would strengthen a rotation that’s been one of the year’s most pleasant surprises. Still, it should be noted that his velocity was down 2-3 mph from last year in his outing Monday. It’s perfectly understandable, but it wouldn’t seem to bode well for him in the short term. NL-only leaguers should be wary.
- The Mets were able to deal Jay Bruce to open up a spot for Dominic Smith at first base and followed that up by sending Neil Walker to Milwaukee. They still could trade Curtis Granderson, which would give them more of an opportunity to take a look at former first-round pick Brandon Nimmo in the outfield. Nimmo elevated his stock by hitting .352/.423/.541 in 392 at-bats in his Triple-A debut last year, but that’s the only time in six minor league seasons that he’s topped an .800 OPS. Nimmo is adequate in center, but he’s not a big speedster and it doesn’t look like he’ll turn into more than 15-homer guy in the majors. He’d seem to profile best as a fourth outfielder. Still, if he does show something the last six weeks, maybe the Mets could afford to stay out of the bidding for center fielders and go with some combination of Nimmo and Juan Lagares next year.
- Jonathan Villar finally showed some signs of heating up just before the Brewers finalized their Walker acquisition; he’s 7-for-17 with three extra-base hits in his last four games. Still, this time there no longer seems to be an opportunity for him to win his way back into regular playing time with a few good games in a row. As much as it hurts to drop someone with his power-speed upside, there isn’t as much reason to hold on to him in mixed leagues.
- Reds catcher Devin Mesoraco is on the disabled list for a third time this year, now due to a fractured foot (the result of a HBP). If he doesn’t play again this season, he’ll have appeared in just 95 games and taken 271 plate appearances over a three-year span. Mesoraco signed a four-year deal after his All-Star campaign in 2014, and he’s due $13 million next season. I think he can still hit -- he had an .893 OPS in his first 113 plate appearances this year before coming in at horrible .323 in the last 52 -- but it just doesn’t seem realistic that he’ll stay healthy as a primary catcher. The Reds like Tucker Barnhart anyway, so trading Mesoraco to an AL team for a similarly bad contract would seem to be Cincinnati’s best bet this winter; he might do a nice Gattis impersonation given the chance.
- Jeurys Familia (blood clot) began his rehab assignment on Tuesday, putting him in line to join the Mets bullpen by Sept. 1. If his stuff comes all of the way back, he’ll probably earn saves next month. It will be interesting to see if the Mets explore trading A.J. Ramos by Aug. 31 in that scenario. Ramos has reportedly cleared waivers. The Mets got him from the Marlins with an eye towards next year, but he’d hardly seem to be a bargain as an $8 million setup man. The Twins or Angels might want one more name reliever in the closing mix as they go about trying to secure a wild card berth.
- Brandon Drury is hitting .214/.267/.321 in the second half and has lost a bunch of playing time of late. Drury is a rather interesting player to me; the Diamondbacks handed him a starting job at second base this year after a 2016 season in which got 499 plate appearances as a utilityman and finished with 0.0 WAR, thanks to average offense and poor defense. He’s been a nice surprise defensively, playing an average second base, yet he’s struck out more and been a below average bat with his 91 OPS+. Of late, the right-handed-hitting Drury has been sitting in favor of Daniel Descalso against righties, even though he’s been quite a bit more productive versus righties (.806 OPS) than lefties (.650 OPS). I’m not sure where Drury goes from here; if the defense holds up, he should be decent enough offensively to resemble an average regular. Still, the Diamondbacks seem to have lost faith in him, and he might get even fewer at-bats next month if Nick Ahmed returns and Ketel Marte starts seeing more time at second.
- Chase Anderson, out since the end of June with an oblique strain, will make his return to the Brewers’ rotation Saturday against the Rockies at Coors Field. Anderson exceeded expectations in the first half, amassing a 2.89 ERA. He was particularly strong in the six starts before he got hurt, coming through with a 1.33 ERA and a 43/8 K/BB ratio in 40 2/3 innings. His velocity was better than ever, which helped. Still, it seemed like something of a fluke that he gave up just eight homers in 90 innings; he’s a flyball pitcher and he’s in a big-time home run environment in Miller Park. Last year, he gave up homers at twice that rate, allowing 28 in 152 innings. I’m pretty skeptical that he’ll have mixed-league value the rest of the way.
- The Marlins got Kyle Barraclough back from the disabled list on Tuesday, giving them another option in the ninth. He might have gotten the nod in the closer’s role had he been healthy when Ramos was traded. Brad Ziegler ended up as the pick and has been fine, notching four saves while throwing five scoreless innings this month (and lowering his ERA from 6.52 to 5.56 in the process). The Marlins will certainly stick with Ziegler for the time being, but one imagines they’d love to trade him and shed his $8 million salary for next season. If that happens or if he begins to falter, Barraclough would be in position to capitalize.
- Mark Melancon has pitched two scoreless innings since coming off the disabled list over the weekend. If he keeps it up, he could get a chance to return to the closer’s role next week, bumping Sam Dyson back into setup duties. The Giants will play it by ear; Melancon has admitted he’s not completely over his elbow soreness.
- That Chad Bettis returned from testicular cancer at all this season was an incredible feat; he was originally diagnosed last November and then needed an additional round of treatment in March after learning the cancer had spread. That he did so with seven scoreless innings against the Braves on Monday was unbelievable. Bettis was an underrated cog in the Rockies’ rotation in 2015 and 2016, putting up ERA+s of 110 and 101, respectively. Ideally, his return would strengthen a rotation that’s been one of the year’s most pleasant surprises. Still, it should be noted that his velocity was down 2-3 mph from last year in his outing Monday. It’s perfectly understandable, but it wouldn’t seem to bode well for him in the short term. NL-only leaguers should be wary.
- The Mets were able to deal Jay Bruce to open up a spot for Dominic Smith at first base and followed that up by sending Neil Walker to Milwaukee. They still could trade Curtis Granderson, which would give them more of an opportunity to take a look at former first-round pick Brandon Nimmo in the outfield. Nimmo elevated his stock by hitting .352/.423/.541 in 392 at-bats in his Triple-A debut last year, but that’s the only time in six minor league seasons that he’s topped an .800 OPS. Nimmo is adequate in center, but he’s not a big speedster and it doesn’t look like he’ll turn into more than 15-homer guy in the majors. He’d seem to profile best as a fourth outfielder. Still, if he does show something the last six weeks, maybe the Mets could afford to stay out of the bidding for center fielders and go with some combination of Nimmo and Juan Lagares next year.
- Jonathan Villar finally showed some signs of heating up just before the Brewers finalized their Walker acquisition; he’s 7-for-17 with three extra-base hits in his last four games. Still, this time there no longer seems to be an opportunity for him to win his way back into regular playing time with a few good games in a row. As much as it hurts to drop someone with his power-speed upside, there isn’t as much reason to hold on to him in mixed leagues.
- Reds catcher Devin Mesoraco is on the disabled list for a third time this year, now due to a fractured foot (the result of a HBP). If he doesn’t play again this season, he’ll have appeared in just 95 games and taken 271 plate appearances over a three-year span. Mesoraco signed a four-year deal after his All-Star campaign in 2014, and he’s due $13 million next season. I think he can still hit -- he had an .893 OPS in his first 113 plate appearances this year before coming in at horrible .323 in the last 52 -- but it just doesn’t seem realistic that he’ll stay healthy as a primary catcher. The Reds like Tucker Barnhart anyway, so trading Mesoraco to an AL team for a similarly bad contract would seem to be Cincinnati’s best bet this winter; he might do a nice Gattis impersonation given the chance.
- Jeurys Familia (blood clot) began his rehab assignment on Tuesday, putting him in line to join the Mets bullpen by Sept. 1. If his stuff comes all of the way back, he’ll probably earn saves next month. It will be interesting to see if the Mets explore trading A.J. Ramos by Aug. 31 in that scenario. Ramos has reportedly cleared waivers. The Mets got him from the Marlins with an eye towards next year, but he’d hardly seem to be a bargain as an $8 million setup man. The Twins or Angels might want one more name reliever in the closing mix as they go about trying to secure a wild card berth.
- Brandon Drury is hitting .214/.267/.321 in the second half and has lost a bunch of playing time of late. Drury is a rather interesting player to me; the Diamondbacks handed him a starting job at second base this year after a 2016 season in which got 499 plate appearances as a utilityman and finished with 0.0 WAR, thanks to average offense and poor defense. He’s been a nice surprise defensively, playing an average second base, yet he’s struck out more and been a below average bat with his 91 OPS+. Of late, the right-handed-hitting Drury has been sitting in favor of Daniel Descalso against righties, even though he’s been quite a bit more productive versus righties (.806 OPS) than lefties (.650 OPS). I’m not sure where Drury goes from here; if the defense holds up, he should be decent enough offensively to resemble an average regular. Still, the Diamondbacks seem to have lost faith in him, and he might get even fewer at-bats next month if Nick Ahmed returns and Ketel Marte starts seeing more time at second.
- Chase Anderson, out since the end of June with an oblique strain, will make his return to the Brewers’ rotation Saturday against the Rockies at Coors Field. Anderson exceeded expectations in the first half, amassing a 2.89 ERA. He was particularly strong in the six starts before he got hurt, coming through with a 1.33 ERA and a 43/8 K/BB ratio in 40 2/3 innings. His velocity was better than ever, which helped. Still, it seemed like something of a fluke that he gave up just eight homers in 90 innings; he’s a flyball pitcher and he’s in a big-time home run environment in Miller Park. Last year, he gave up homers at twice that rate, allowing 28 in 152 innings. I’m pretty skeptical that he’ll have mixed-league value the rest of the way.
- The Marlins got Kyle Barraclough back from the disabled list on Tuesday, giving them another option in the ninth. He might have gotten the nod in the closer’s role had he been healthy when Ramos was traded. Brad Ziegler ended up as the pick and has been fine, notching four saves while throwing five scoreless innings this month (and lowering his ERA from 6.52 to 5.56 in the process). The Marlins will certainly stick with Ziegler for the time being, but one imagines they’d love to trade him and shed his $8 million salary for next season. If that happens or if he begins to falter, Barraclough would be in position to capitalize.
- Mark Melancon has pitched two scoreless innings since coming off the disabled list over the weekend. If he keeps it up, he could get a chance to return to the closer’s role next week, bumping Sam Dyson back into setup duties. The Giants will play it by ear; Melancon has admitted he’s not completely over his elbow soreness.
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