The big Vee

Since the All-Star break, there haven’t been many pitchers who have pitched better than Justin Verlander. Over six starts, he’s 3-1 with a 2.01 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 44/12 K/BB in 40.1 innings. That follows a first half in which Verlander posted a pedestrian 4.73 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, and K/BB ratio lower than 2.00.

Verlander’s control improvement recently has made a huge difference, but there were signs even during the first half that he was ready to bounce back. His success during his career has often correlated with the radar gun, and Verlander’s average fastball velocity this season (95.7 mph) is the best he’s shown since 2010. Since that time, Verlander has won an AL Cy Young, MVP, and finished second in the Cy Young voting twice.

Of course, the control still needs to hold down the stretch. Overall, Verlander has a mediocre 3.9 BB/9 after to his control struggles in the first half, and he’s also had trouble keeping the ball in the park for the second consecutive season. As a result, Verlander’s ERA metrics aren’t great, with a 4.07 FIP and 4.58 SIERA. Those bleak signs are at least worth considering, but Verlander’s ERA is likely to continue its decline as long as he’s throwing strikes consistently.

Looking ahead, Verlander has a tough two-start week at Texas and vs. the Dodgers. Despite the matchup challenges, particularly against the best team in baseball late in the week, Verlander has reclaimed his status in fantasy leagues as an automatic start every time he takes the mound.

-Trevor Bauer has been mentioned in this spot before, with peripherals that showed he was due to rebound. If you’ve been patient, it’s certainly paid off. Bauer has allowed just one run in each of his last three starts, spanning 22 innings. Over that time, he had 22/3 K/BB. For the season, the hard-throwing right-handover  is nearly a full run lower than his 4.79 ERA, and he has an elite 9.9 K/9. Like Verlander, Bauer has been an enigma, but there’s reason to believe he can keep up his great recent performance. His two starts next week come at Boston and Kansas City.

-Dinelson Lamet has been one of San Diego’s most promising young players this season despite a 5.00 ERA. A regularly elite strikeout pitcher in the minors, Lamet’s 11.2 K/9 ranks seventh best in MLB among starters with at least 60 innings pitched. He’s been erratic, as you’d expect from a rookie, with a 3.7 BB/9 and 1.4 HR/9, but Lamet has come around recently. His ERA has decreased by 1.40 over his last four starts, allowing two runs or less in each outing. The strikeouts and recent success make him worthy of a look in mixed leagues, and he has two home starts ahead next week vs. Philadelphia and Washington.

-It certainly looks like the Giants have found themselves a fifth starter this season in Ty Blach. Despite a 4.5 K/9, lowest in MLB among qualified starters, Blach’s ERA is down to 4.15 due to his near-perfect control. Among the impressive numbers are a 1.9 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9, and 3.82 FIP. The lack of strikeouts has prevented Blach from holding much fantasy value, but he has been a viable spot starter, especially recently with six quality starts over his last seven outings.

-Next week is another one of those exciting weeks when the Rockies have a full slate of games at Coors Field. The Rockies hitters have a league-leading .864 OPS at home compared to .693 on the road, which ranks second worst.

-With mention of the Rockies, it’s appropriate to also mention the return Chad Bettis on Monday. Bettis is returning from testicular cancer and is a great story to pull for as we head toward the stretch run.

Chad Bettis