The Times they are a Changin....

So we now have the direction A.A. is taking pretty much laid out.

Scutaro is gone, but the Jays might covet the obligatory extra draft picks that a Type A free agent garners.

Barajas is gone, just reported that A.A. realises that Rod is seeking a multi year deal, which the Jays are no interested in.

Also, a note to Travis Snider, hello dear boy, do not come to camp expecting to handed a starting assignment.

Roy Halladay, start filling out those change of address cards.

In 2010 we shall all have to learn the new Jays fight song " Tread Water" because that's what is expected.

2 shortstops making $4.2 mill, rather than re sign Scutaro to a 3 year deal at maybe $ 3 plus a season, and still then resign a suitable back up. Nope, not going in that direction.

Behind the plate will be from this cast, Kyle Phillips ( 2009 in Triple AAA, Raul Chavez, JP Arencebia, or maybe a return for 1 year by Gregg Zaun ). I say Zaun for a simple reason, the last 2 years Rogers Sportsnet has used Zaun as a colour analyst during the post season, and he's very good at it. When you're career is coming to a close, and if you are not the managing type, the media beckons sometimes.

As I wrote awhile back, the road map is clearly set by Beeston and A.A., take 2 giant steps back, in hopes of taking the bigger step forward.

I don't agree, but then again, I don't disagree, at least it's a plan of attack. In the great stockpile of young Jay pitchers , there are still huge question marks in my mind. Once you admit to yourself that Halladay is leaving, what stands behind him, rookies, kids, 2nd year hopefuls, and guys coming off long stints on the DL. If A.A. and Beeston are reading the tea leaves the way I think they are, 2010 will be stumbling effort and a year of maturation and growth. But not winning.

This rotation then gets a boost with experienced shortstops who field the ball well, and maybe catchers ( like Zaun and Chavez ) that work well with youngsters.

Listening to the radio the other day, there was a discussion about the Jays black hole at 3rd base, and that will continue to be a concern, because traidng Gold Glover Rolen for Dr. Strangelove ( Encarnacion ) is going to add on additional hits, and force more 4 out innings, something young pitchers don't always handle well.

Just add David Stieb about fielders.....

So maybe the ever patient new arctitects of the team will look to see if 3rd base can be another stop gap position, a platoon of Encarnacion and anyone with a glove. That would require spending a few shells but our resident 3rd sacker is not here forever, and can be moved to DH, where his defense is superior.

I wrote back in October about the 2010 payroll heading south to 60 million, so I would say based on the recent events that is bang on accurate.

" Oh the Times, they are a changin...."

Drawing Comparisons

How does one compare what Hidecki Matsui did in the 2009 Series, and post season against the same or similar feats performed by one George Herman Ruth.

The topic came up because of Matsui's 2009 numbers in post season, and that only Ruth had ever batted over .600 in a World Series before, so the stories began filtering out. Matsui had reached hallowed ground, equally the immortal Babe, and maybe surpassing it.

There is an argument, and a strong one that Babe Ruth could not perform at his level of excellence in today's game.

To that point I would have to agree, I do not think Ruth could perform the way he did in the 1920's in the modern era. His personal conditioning would be an issue, the length of the season, the travel, these things would wear the Bambino down too much.

The media scrutiny with facebook, twitter, blogs ( like mine ) you tube, it is a lot for anyone to make sense of, and while the Babe was the centre of baseball, there was radio and newspapers, and that was it.

The game is also too detailed, departmental now, pinch runners, defensive replacements, left handed set up relievers. Games are run through computer simulations, hitting zones, very advanced stuff, and all the Babe knew was, I can hit this guy's best pitch a mile. Watch me do it again.

The Babe would not adjust well to the current game, but by the same token, Matsui would not thrive in the 1920's the way he did in 2009. The reasons are many, and easily understood. Players today are pampered, well fed, very well paid demi gods. Yes, the Babe was a demi god in his time, but he still led a more quiet life away from the game. Could Matsui handle the train travel, sleeping in cramped berths, playing defense every out of every game, year after year.

Could he deal with lesser equipment, and could he handle perhaps even worse than the language barrier, but maybe the racism that would have existed.

What about the rougher playing fields, the "no give " fences, these things all add up to a much more difficult environment for Godzilla.

Someone told me he would be surprised if Ruth could hit 15 home runs in the modern game. Maybe, I think the big palooka would not reach his 60 homer status, but more than the 15 dingers. Pitching while specialised, but he talent is arguably not as strong, enough so that Ruth could hit for average at least. The Babe being a gamer, I know he could DH and play 1 or 2 days in the outfield, much like Matsui does now. He'd at least get starts on grass surfaces, and oh, he should know Fenway.

Now it sounds like I am describing Matsui, a DH , a defensive liability, and occasional outfielder, and a high average, moderate power hitter. I guess I am.

However the difference is, I think Ruth in 2009 plays on the this version of the Yanks, but Matsui would have a hard time even making those mid 20's squads or Murderers Row.

Matsui was not even the 3rd best player on his team, Ruth dominated the game, his team, and his league. The 27 Yanks had Earl Coombs ( .356 ), Tony Lazerri ( .309 ), Bob Meusel ( .337 ), Lou Gehrig ( .373 ) and Babe Ruth ( .356 ). Ruth and Gehrig combined for 342 RBI's that year.

Matsui is an excellent hitter, and his 2009 production in the post season are not to be ignored, but comparing his feats to Ruth's, well you just haven't done your homework.

End of story.

2010 - A Jays Odyssey

Lately, I keep hearing that the Jays just need a few bodies here or there, and perhaps they are not as bad as others would portray them.


So, let's look at the situation by position, and see where they stand.

Catcher - Well Rod Barajas ( 34 ) is about ready to file for free agency, but I think he'd be glad to get an offer from Toronto, and maybe partner with Raul Chavez. I think the youngster Arenciebia is still quite far off, his batting numbers slipped badly, so he is not ready to assume the back up duties. This position needs a good game caller, and some one that has a rapport with young arms, so I would try and keep Raul Chavez, and get another younger backup, let them split the job. There are usually some guys that fit that bill.

I would say they will be no further ahead offensively, perhaps a bid worse.

1st base - So there's rumours of Overbay being shopped. Hey Mike Wilner ( FAN 590 ), the biggest Overbay fan in Toronto, where are those juicy 50 plus doubles, and mid teens in home runs coming along for Lyle ??? Yup, Jays need to move him out, and move Adam Lind to 1st base. If that happens, 1st base is the best position on the team.

2nd base So here is the 2nd best position on the team, Aaron Hill, fresh off his All Star super human performance of 2009. His stats were amazing, considering he'd never come close in the past. I do not believe he'll duplicate the power numbers, but I would settle for a few more 2 baggers, and reduce the k's, and improve his on base %, and he is the number 3 hitter in front of Lind.

3rd base - It starts downhill from here. Encarnacion has proven a few certainties, he does possess some long ball potential, some, not enough to ignore his erratic defense, and his strikeouts, and the fact his batting average last year was below his career average. But he had a wrist problem, so perhaps he was affected by that injury. He is a below average fielder, decent arm, but too many throws in the dirt. Oh, Overbay was still there, he would snag a few errant balls and save Edwin a few errors, but if Lind moves there, his error total will only increase.

shortstop - Scutaro has filed for free agency as well, and had a good year at age 34, and made the majority of the defensive plays, but the Jays should not get caught up in giving him a raise or long term deal. Twins made the deal the Jays would liked to make, sending Carlos Gomez to the Brewers for JJ Hardy.


Scutaro if retained will be fine, but won't be able to duplicate those numbers, and the Jays need to rethink their lead off spot, since they will have to generate more runs with speed, so maybe take a pass on Marco, and bring in someone else, and platoon with Johny MacDonald, who would love to stay.


Centre Field - VW still drives the outfield, and his big salary will kick in and likely cause him to press more than he already does. I expect nothing more than 130 games, and mediocre numbers and good defense. Hey, Mike Cameron could fill that bill for less than a 3rd of Vernon's $$. Oh well.

Left/ Right Field - Travis Snider patrols one slot, and if Lind does not move, he gets the other. Lind is already written about, he's great, the other guy, who knows yet. He strikes out too much, and while he has a strong arm, he is slow afoot, and has limited range. His batting numbers should improve in 2010, but he has to show he has a better handle on the strike zone, and some patience.

So the offense is Lind and Hill with a dash of Encarnacion, and newbies behind the plate, in the outfield and short, so expect some cheaper one yr deals along the lines of Kevin Millar types.

Unless they have dealt Halladay and have picked up a corner OF, or starting shortstop ( likely a kid at Triple AAA who's blocked at the major league level ) Hope for the Elvis Andrus scenario, that was lightening in a bottle for the Rangers.

At DH, they will try Randy Ruiz and maybe they will pick up a scrap heap left handed version and platoon them. Would help if this mystery DH can play the outfield. Or maybe it's Jose Bautista , who will carry 3 gloves ( of/3rd, and 1st ).

On the mound, first off, the bullpen is fine, not lights out, but fine. Keep Downs in closer role for now, hope Casey Janssen improves, same for Brandon League, and you have a fairly decent pen.

Rotation wise, this all depends on dealing Halladay, which is more likely to happen than not.'

If you get a mid rotation youngster in return, great, that and a few body parts at other positions is the most you can expect.

Marcum , Litsch, Romero, Cecil, Mr X, and Scott Richmond or Brian Talett are the expected rotation, with outside shots to Brad Mills, and David Purcey.

Marcum, Litsch are both coming off year long injuries, so are not to be counted on. Romero tailed off, but looks to be talented, needs another year. Cecil showed flashes, but needs probably a full 30 starts at Triple AAA, but will be rushed. Tallet and Richmond fill in here and there, and of course, Mr. X.

Mr. X is either a blue chipper that needs more time, or a guy who's already in a rotation, but on the green side of experience. Or is the Doc still here. I think the die is cast, he's pitched his last time in Toronto.

So , weaker on the mound, weaker on defense at the corners, youngsters at short, or outfield, and what does this translate to, a 65 win season, maybe 68-69, but nothing past this.


The new GM gets a free year, to rebuild the scouting staff, and look for Cito's replacement, a manager who is a true teacher, a mentor, because the 30 something players will all be gone. it will be a new crop, and you need to teach your children well ( apologies to Crosby, Stills and Nash ).

So for those who see the glass half full, let's ee if you guys are still buying tickets in June, I will expect to see you on that bandwagon, sipping Paul Beeston's Kool Aid.

I am afriad I do not see happy days in 2010, or 2011, it will take longer and they will lack a veteran leader like Roy Halladay to help them.

Mr GM, good luck this off season,

The New Blueprint in Toronto

It began very quickly once the ink was dry on JP's exit papers, as Alex Anthopolous began remaking the front office. Dana Brown was lured ( is that the right word ) from the Washington Senators, an old ex Expo mentor.



Then he added the 2 two Mel's, Queen and Didier as senior advisers, then he moved onto the scouting. He put a new face on scouting, the started trying to reload the cupboard with qualified scouts in areas that had either been ignored, or considered not important.



It was very easy at that point to expect the announcement that Paul Beeston was staying, in fact I think if The Beest is honest with himself, he already knew weeks ago when young Alex was restocking the shelf that the search was over, he was staying on as President, it was just a matter of length of the term. 3 years and sayonara.



You don't let the kid GM make all these moves if you are planning on hiring a new President and giving that person the chance to hire his own GM and staff, now do you ?



So, the blueprint is there, they continue to add experienced heads, seek out more scouts, change the approach and direction. Oh, they will still keep all those computers JP bought to find diamonds in the rough, but they won't rely solely on internet stats, and common knowledge scouting reports, and JP's elite scouting group. The group that had Jp's mark on it. That group sought college kids with fattened on base numbers, more established ready players, while the route could produce talent, the high schoolers were largely dismissed as talent that will take too long. That's not the Billy Beane approach, the one that says take the 240 lb Dh/1b and forget he cannopt throw the ball or catch it, so long as he can hit and take a base, we can make him a player. What Billy failed to teach young JP is that if you have a Hudson, a Mulder, a Haren, a Harden, and you cannot afford them, you can trade them for 2-3, or 4 great Triple AAA well established blue chip prospects, and if one or 2 of them work out, great. That was not in JP's handbook , since he never had that type of pitching talent to barter with.



So, onto Alex Anthopolous and his new regime, a different direction, fan out over the globe and find talent, find it anywhere, where the Yankees and Red Sox aren't, return to those late 1970's, early 80's roots of scouting the islands, South American. Where is Epy Guererro now ??



There 's a good reason why this is needed here in Toronto.



They ( Beeston & Alex ) know that Halladay won't be staying past next year, so the payroll will be trimmed for 2010 where possible. No sense asking for 125 million budget, if the Doc's leaving anyhow. Other than Vernon's heavy annual salary, do not expect much more being spent.

If Scutaro will return for 1 year at cheap money, he will be back, same maybe for Rod Barajas, nobody is getting big money, 2010 is not the year, and 30 something journeyman players that had nice years are not cashing in on Toronto's dime. Simply not on the blueprint.



The blueprint is as follows;



1. Ramp up the scouting staff, and begin the process of finding young talent at every level. This is nothing new for the Blue Jays, this is the old blueprint of Gillick and others.



2. Surround the young GM with sage old baseball men, and let Anthopolous use their wisdom and learn what they know, the committee approach, same that Pat Gillick employed. maybe ask Pat to join as a adhoc advisor if he'd like.



3. Deal Halladay in the winter, as quietly as possible. Since JP is not running off at the mouth to ESPN or NESN, or FOX, or any Boston/NY area media, maybe they can deal with it. Go back tot the Phillies, try and get J. Happ, plus a body or two, or the Dodgers, and get the arm back you believe has promise down the road.



(As a side note, I wonder, if the Phillies lose, will they regret not dealing Drabek for Halladay ?

What effect would Roy Halladay have had as a Game 2, and Game 5 or 6 starter ? )



4. Begin the process of deciding who replaces Cito, and make sure Alex that he is your man, not Cito's hand picked successor. Otherwise you will quickly have Cito as senior advisor for 4 years more with more power and sway. Be prepared to cut ties with all the Cito clan after 2010.



5. Move out JP's deadwood as soon as you can.



6. Ask Rogers to be patient, the plan will work, but now it requires a lot more time to develop.