When will Oakland find the right mixture

 

When the Athletics finally reach the World Series  the fans in California will breathe a sigh of relief, as the A's are often bridesmaids, and never brides.



Batters
What the depth-chart graphic below doesn’t represent very well, but what is still true of the Oakland A’s, is that they’ll probably be getting value from players who aren’t proper starters. Of particular note in this regard is outfielder Craig Gentry for whom Oakland traded Micheal Choice and a friend to Texas this offseason. Gentry’s defensive figures over the last three season have been, speaking in very technical sabermetric terms, entirely bananas. Accordingly, it’s not so unexpected to see him receive a very optimistic projection here in just 300 or so plate appearances.
Also of note: John Jaso is projected as a catcher here, but is likely to get a significant numbers of plate appearances — perhaps the bulk of them — at DH. Even a poor defensive catcher still receives a pretty substantial increase in value by way of positional adjustment — relative to a designated hitter, certainly. Expecting him to produce two wins in a DH capacity might be unrealistic

Pitchers
The starting pitchers in the depth-chart graphic below are arranged not in order of expected rotation slot.What doing that reveals is how Sonny Gray , and probably not Jarrod Parker, is maybe the staff ace. What it also reveals is that Tommy Milone, currently not expected to be included in the opening-day rotation, is projected like a pitcher who probably should be.
Elsewhere, one finds that Scott Kazmir‘s projection  isn’t a particularly favorable one. The reason for that, though, appears due less to mediocrity on a rate basis and more to a pretty conservative innings projections (91.1). This isn’t particularly strange for a pitcher who returned in 2013 following nearly a full two-year layoff.

Bench/Prospects

Given both his (a) skills and (b) performances relative to age/level, it’s not surprising to learn that shortstop Addison Russell is one of the top prospects in baseball. What’s perhaps more surprising is that Russell, who’s recorded just 13 cursory plate appearances above High-A ball, is projected already to produce wins at a league-average rate in the majors. He would appear, at this juncture, to be considerably more advanced than most of the other rookie-eligible players in the Oakland system.

Depth Chart

Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the A’s, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post.

Baseball in the streets

You can play the game anywhere and I have.

The game was initially supposed to be a pastoral set outdoors to allow young people to fill their lungs with clean air and benefit their health. Poppycock ! The games most ardent roots come from playing in downtown Brooklyn, or San Juan, or east LA or downtown Detroit or across from the drug store in Boston.  Side of a hill or in a deserted schoolyard.

In Latin America, the  difficulties stem from what equipment is available. No gloves, or tattered ones, fields are make shift, no grass, mostly rocks, hard scrabble grey and bumpy.

The highest baseball tournament in Latin America is the Caribbean Series (Serie del Caribe), with participants including the winners of the Winter Leagues in Mexico, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic and Venezuela.
According to some, baseball is today more popular in Latin America than in the United States. It is no secret that USA, Japan and Latin America are top baseball countries but it seems that recently the game has lost some of its popularity in the United States.

This never happened in Latin America, where people are still very passionate about the game.

There is absolutely no doubt that baseball is one of the most popular sports in Latin America, especially in the Caribbean region. There are many possible reasons for this. First of all, sporting competition has always been a big thing in Latin America. Just think about the popularity of soccer, among other sports. When it comes to baseball, it seems that this game is perceived as a perfect way for a poor buy from a humble environment to rise above his status and become a star.

Baseball players in Latin America are highly regarded and often idolized by the fans, maybe even more than their colleagues in the USA. Winter League stars are regarded as national heroes and if they are lucky enough to reach the American major league (which many of them actually do), they are in for something of a cult status. This probably has much to do with the fact that so many people in Latin America struggle with poverty and they find much consolation in the fact that some of them can actually reach success and a better life.

In addition to that, baseball is more suitable for kids in dense urban areas to play. It does not require vast fields and can be played in the street. If you are poor, you only need a small field and some rocks to mark the bases. If you don’t have a proper baseball, you can use a tennis ball or some other sort of ball. Not having proper equipment never seems to stop kids in Latin America from playing.

Also, baseball does not require perfect or at least specific physical shape and condition, like football and basketball, which is one of the possible reasons for the popularity of baseball in Latin America.
Compared to Americans, the Latinos seem to care more about baseball, its rules, seasons and players. Baseball is not a sport with simple rules and enjoying it to the fullest often requires a great deal of knowledge and focus. Latin American fans are believed by many to be the most dedicated and knowledgeable when it comes to baseball. They also expect a lot from their players, who need to go all in in each and every game, or else the fans may actually turn their backs on them. This, of course, increases the quality of the players and of the game.

 American kids would sneak out of the orphanages into empty parks. Here the kids begin the ritual of deciding who has first ups.

Central America and the winter leagues

Major league players will be allowed to compete in winter leagues this season after Major League Baseball and the players' association reached an agreement on restrictions that will limit pitchers' participation but loosen limitations on position players, sources with knowledge of the deal told Yahoo Sports.

Terse negotiations between the parties in recent months stoked fears that players on teams' 40-man rosters – the stars and staples of leagues in the Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Puerto Rico and Mexico – would be barred from playing this year. The five-year agreement, reached Friday and ratified by the Caribbean Confederation on Saturday, will allow players to report within a week.

MLB aimed to keep pitchers – particularly young ones – from taxing their arms after significant workloads, while the union wanted to allow players as much leeway as possible to play if they desire. In the past, teams have been allowed to restrict players based on "extreme fatigue" and "physical incapacity" rules that related to player usage and injuries the previous season. 

Starting this year, Double-A starting pitchers – those on the 40-man roster with a majority of their time spent at Double-A – cannot participate in winter ball if they threw 140 or more innings. The previous threshold was 155. Similarly, Double-A relievers cannot have appeared in more than 45 games, while in years past it was 55.

Pitchers also are ineligible if their workload in games or innings grew 25 percent over the prior season. The caveats: They must've reached 60 percent of the games-or-innings threshold the previous season, and players switching from the rotation to the bullpen or vice versa don't count.

Instead of a 502-plate appearance threshold for major league position players, those with up to 552 now can play winter ball. Moreover, the past procedure of declaring a "physical incapacity" – teams simply had to provide documentation – now has strict rules. Unless a player finishes the season on the disabled list or spent 60 days on the DL (including 15 over the final 60 days of the season), a team cannot declare him physically incapable. The exception is pitchers who have undergone major surgery in the previous 18 months.

Off-field improvements for players include the requirement of MLB-certified trainers, higher-quality equipment and increased standards for fields, clubhouses and bathrooms, with a compliance program to address issues.

The Venezuelan Winter League and Mexican Pacific League began play this week. The biggest and best league, the Dominican Winter League, starts Friday, and opening day for the Puerto Rican League is Nov. 1. The league's winners will meet in the Caribbean Series, scheduled to be held on Margarita Island, Venezuela, in February 2014. 

Jeter

Run a Google search for :Derek Jeter" and “defense” and you get almost 700,000 results. Run a Google search for "Chipper Jones" and you get fewer than 450,000 results. I suppose now you can bump each of those up by one. The matter of Jeter’s defense is a tired, tired topic, and it was a tired, tired topic years ago. Personally, I try to avoid tired topics. But in this instance, I think there’s something; something not enough attention has been paid to on account of the raging argument elsewhere.

People have argued about only part of the story.
 
You all should be familiar with the position of the advanced defensive metrics like DRS and UZR. It’s because of those metrics that an argument exists in the first place. Jeter loyalists have continued to insist he was at least a solid defensive shortstop in the past. UZR has disagreed, and DRS has more extremely disagreed, as they’ve both evaluated Jeter as subpar for the position. On the occasion of Jeter’s retirement announcement, there were people who couldn’t help but make fun of his defensive ability, and he’s been the butt of such jokes for much of his career. Jeter’s often been described as an awful defensive shortstop, or as something along those lines. While there’s been some basis for this, though, one of the key words in that description is “shortstop.”
 

Let’s say you’re a professional pie-eater. Congratulations! You’re one of the lucky ones! You’re able to reliably consume three pies in a timed sitting. Among the pie-eating circuit, this makes you more or less average. In one competition, against weaker foes, you eat your three pies, and no one else eats more than two. You’ve won! Then you move on to another, more challenging competition. Against stronger foes, you eat your three pies, but most everyone else eats four. You’ve lost. Your ability level was exactly the same, but the peers you were matched up against were better than the peers before, so relatively speaking, you looked worse.

 This has, in essence, been Jeter’s dilemma. Statistically, he’s been a below-average defensive shortstop, and everybody knows that. He’s also been a shortstop for his entire career, and shortstops are above-average defenders, relative to the Major League Baseball player pool. So on the one hand, Jeter’s been one of the worst. But on the other, he’s been one of the worst out of the best, so it’s important remember defensive numbers come within a certain positional context. Maybe Jeter’s like the worst beer from an excellent brewery.
In case you haven’t been able to look ahead, this whole post is basically just going to call attention to Jeter’s Defense rating. Every player on FanGraphs gets a Fielding rating, and a Positional rating. Combine them and you get the Defense rating, which allows for a direct comparison of players across different positions. Most of the talk about Jeter has had to do with the Fielding rating. That paints an incomplete picture.

In the past 50 years, 507 different players have batted at least 5,000 times. Sort by Fielding-per-150-games, and you find Jeter in 487th place, around names like Jay Buhner,Micheal Young and Bobby Bonilla. However, sort by Positional-per-150-games, and you find Jeter in 57th place, around names like Cal Ripken, Rafael Furcal and Omar Vizquel. This is the positional adjustment, and Jeter gets major points for being a shortstop — a position of considerable difficulty.
Sort by Defense-per-150-games, and you find Jeter in 252nd place. In other words, he’s right in the middle of the pack, near guys like Jeff Blauser, Andre Dawson, and Willie McGee. He comes out at -1.5 runs on that scale. He’s ahead of John Olerud. He’s ahead of Mark Grace and Rickey Henderson and Moises Alou. Jeter has drawn the criticism that he’s cost his team runs by playing a lousy shortstop, but overall he’s still been a reasonably valuable defensive player. That’s just because of his reliability at a difficult position.

The numbers they have at Baseball-Reference like Jeter less, and if you use their numbers for those same 507 guys in the past 50 years, you find Jeter in 341st place. It’s a worse place, to be sure, but it’s certainly not a dreadful place. And Jeter’s right by names like Nick Markakis and Shannon Stewart . He’s ahead of Jeff Bagwell. . And of course, we’re loyal to the numbers we have right here, so I look at these as a backup.

Let’s say you only want to know about the era during which we’ve had UZR. This stretches from 2002 to 2013, and during that span, 322 players have batted at least 2,500 times. Keep in mind this window ignores Jeter’s youngest years. Sort by Fielding-per-150-games, and you find Jeter in 280th place. Sort by Positional-per-150-games, and you find Jeter in 50th place. Sort by Defense-per-150-games, and you find Jeter in 161st place. Again, right in the middle. His spreadsheet neighbors include Andrew McCutcheon, Eric Byrnes and Ronnie Belliard and  I feel like I’d just be repeating myself if I noted the significance of this. There’s a difference between criticizing Jeter as a defensive shortstop, and criticizing Jeter as a defensive player.

To the eyes, Jeter can be pretty convincingly OK. At least, that has to be the takeaway from so many Yankees fans insisting he’s been fine. Part of that is because Yankees fans haven’t been able to watch any other Yankees shortstops. Part of it is because his missed plays aren’t egregious. Part of it is because the bar for defensive shortstops is really high, and so even a weaker shortstop can look playable. And part of it is because Jeter has long been so athletic, because his position has demanded it, because his position has been among the most demanding. He’s looked like he belongs on the field. That’s mostly because he has.

I get that Derek Jeter is polarizing, and I get that it’s fun to criticize a player the media’s never stopped putting on a pedestal. It’s certainly worthwhile to note Jeter hasn’t been a great defensive shortstop. While he’ll have absolutely zero trouble getting into the Hall of Fame, defense still is important when it comes to our understanding of what he’s been as a player. Jeter has had his on-field shortcomings. But it’s also important to not get carried away.

For his position, Jeter’s been one of the game’s worse defensive players. His position has included some of the very best defensive players in baseball. In terms of overall value, those about negate one another. In the end, the most correct opinion of Jeter’s defensive ability is, `Hey, he’s been all right.’

Angels have high hopes

Send help

High Hopes, we have high hopes,  just like the Sinatra song here in Anaheim. They have stiff competition as well.

The reader likely already knows, but the author will state for the benefit of anyone who might not, that it is generally the case with these projections that they’re more conservative than one’s own intuition might otherwise suggest.


Not infrequently, partisan commenters will respond to these posts with regard to this or that player, saying “I’ll take the over on that projection.” Perhaps, in some cases, that’s a fair statement to make: the relative success of the FAN projections also hosted at this site suggests that the crowd might have some insight into these matters. Still,my forecasts are derived empirically — and, to that end, can’t be merely ignored.

As has been the case in other editions of these posts, the starting pitchers included on the depth-chart graphic below are not listed in order of probable rotation slot. Rather what the author has done is to arrange the five pitchers most likely to make the opening-day rotation in order of projected WAR, according to experts.

While not a prospect proper, right fielder KoleCalhoun is a young player who enters the season with fewer than 250 career plate appearances and yet a decidedly encouraging projection — one basically on par with left fielder Josh Hamilton‘s, for example, at considerably fewer dollars per win. Perhaps somewhat surprisingly — even to Eric Stamets himself — shortstop Eric Stamets is projected to approach major-league average (or its equivalent in the minors), despite having recorded zero plate appearances above High-A. Much of that is due to his defensive projection, which benefits from +7 defensive runs beyond the already lofty positional adjustment for shortstops.



Watch for Garrett Richards early struggles, it may provide an opening for Skaggs to fit nicely. Also Freese is a nice addition, his steady defense and reliable RBI bat in the middle of the line up will reduce pressures on Pujols and Hamilton.


Here are composites of 2013 batting results, 

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Mike Trout	R	22	CF	714	119	179	35	9	29	95	43	7
Albert Pujols	R	34	1B	538	68	133	28	0	24	81	5	1
Howie Kendrick	R	30	2B	579	65	150	27	4	13	65	11	5
Erick Aybar	B	30	SS	607	74	155	32	6	8	55	19	6
Josh Hamilton	L	33	RF	591	70	138	27	4	22	79	5	1
Kole Calhoun	L	26	CF	542	64	124	23	5	15	66	10	4
Chris Iannetta	R	31	C	352	34	64	12	0	10	36	2	2
David Freese	R	31	3B	484	46	107	20	1	11	55	2	2
Hank Conger	B	26	C	329	31	73	15	1	8	32	0	1
Jett Bandy	R	24	C	400	37	83	22	1	6	37	1	1
Eric Stamets	R	22	SS	498	49	112	19	1	3	35	10	4
Raul Ibanez	L	42	DH	424	47	94	18	2	20	59	1	0
Tommy Field	R	27	SS	498	48	97	19	3	9	41	6	2
Taylor Lindsey	L	22	2B	598	62	138	23	4	12	52	4	5
Shawn O’Malley	B	26	SS	383	41	78	9	4	2	23	15	5
Grant Green	R	26	2B	631	67	148	30	3	11	61	6	5
Luis Jimenez	R	26	3B	496	53	116	26	2	9	53	11	5
Collin Cowgill	R	28	LF	448	47	96	18	3	8	42	11	3
Alex Yarbrough	B	22	2B	523	51	126	21	4	6	47	9	3
Andrew Romine	B	28	SS	501	49	105	13	3	3	35	14	6
Luis Rodriguez	B	34	2B	386	38	84	17	1	6	40	2	4
Luis Martinez	R	29	C	282	23	59	13	1	1	21	1	1
Jimmy Swift	R	26	SS	434	36	89	17	2	5	33	5	3
Chris Nelson	R	28	3B	448	41	99	18	4	9	49	4	2
J.B. Shuck	L	27	LF	497	57	117	17	4	1	36	10	6
Zach Borenstein	L	23	LF	441	49	97	18	2	14	50	6	6
Cyle Hankerd	R	29	LF	210	23	43	8	1	6	23	1	1
Kaleb Cowart	B	22	3B	600	55	122	23	3	9	50	11	6
Luke Carlin	B	33	C	267	26	49	7	0	3	20	2	1
John Hester	R	30	C	296	30	56	10	1	6	23	1	2
Matt Long	L	27	RF	572	64	118	23	6	9	53	17	6
Scott Cousins	L	29	CF	262	27	51	7	2	4	21	6	2
Brad Hawpe	L	35	RF	187	17	34	6	0	4	16	1	1
Lou Montanez	R	32	LF	246	22	53	9	1	3	22	2	3
C.J. Cron	R	24	1B	536	52	121	26	1	13	63	4	4
Efren Navarro	L	28	1B	592	59	132	28	2	6	53	5	3
Trent Oeltjen	L	31	RF	403	41	75	18	3	8	37	12	6
Bill Hall	R	34	2B	242	23	42	8	0	7	22	2	1
Rusty Ryal	R	31	1B	336	28	65	11	1	3	23	1	1

2014 - Year of the Tiger

Cobb slides cleats up.



Each of the four positions within Detroit’s opening-day infield this coming season will very likely be occupied by a different player than on opening day in 2013. Part of the reason for that is because of how Miguel Cabrera returns to first base, a role to which his defensive abilities are more well suited. Another part of the reason is owing to the departures both of Prince Fielder (via trade) and Omar infante (via free agency) this off season. Despite the changes, the probable infield contingent for 2014 (as depicted in the depth-chart image below) ought to rival, in terms of wins, any of those belonging to the last three iterations of the Detroit Tigers, each of which has qualified for the playoffs.



There are few, if any, clubs which could have dealt a four-win pitcher this off season, made basically no other alterations to its starting rotation, and still appeared likely to enter the 2014 season with a rotation full only of league-average starters or better. It appears as though Detroit is such a club, however. This isn’t to suggest, of course, that the trade of Doug Fister wasn’t curious in its way. It does suggest, though, that Detroit was working from a position of strength in this regard.
There is likely something to be learned about human behavior from Detroit’s relationship with Jose Valverde over the last year-plus. The club signed the gentleman reliever to a minor-league contract at the beginning of April, promoted him to the majors after just 3.0 innings of work at High-A Lakeland, and then re-installed him as closer before the beginning of May — this after Valverde demonstrated all manner of warning sign in 2012. None of this immediately concerns the Tigers bullpen in 2014 — unless Detroit acquires Valverde again, of course. Which, if they do that, he’ll pitch at replacement level.

Bench/Prospects

The Tigers aren’t presently teeming with what anyone would call a “surplus” of young talent. Nick Castellanos is decidedly the most impressive prospect in the system, and he’ll very likely be starting the season with the parent club. After Castellanos, there’s less in the way of impact talent, however. Catcher Bryan Holyday is rookie-eligible and looks promising as a backup catcher. Shortstop Eugenio Suarez is also not entirely without merit — but also unlikely to produce anything much in the majors in 2014.





Are the Tigers finally ready, they think so,  and ere's what they should look like. Rotation looks strong, strong closer. Defense should be better. Are they getting old ? Hunter and Vic Martinez are older, but they appear battle tested, and will walk away with AL Central. Watch for young Smyly to move up rotation order.

Damn Yanks or Damned Yanks

Them Yanks

If you think they would just sit there and go moo all winter waiting for green grass to grow under their feet, well forget that.

These are still for the most part your fathers Yankees, they added 35 year Carlos Beltran, they added 30 year old Brian McCann to catch re signed 38 year old Hideki Kuroda.

Jeter is back, and he is older, Big Tex is back at 1st base, and he is older and more fragile.  The Yanks lost Robinson Cano, and if you believe that does not hurt the Yanks, then your are smoking wacky tobacco.

The Yanks infield reads like an Abbott & Costello comedy routine of who's on first, doesn't it folks. They spent money, so what is knew, they got thee big fish, Tanaka, and that will help. But....Sabathia , Tanaka and prayer.
No more Mo ...and that will be different. First time in many a year.


Where will the team finish...I could do the same evaluation, like the O's and Red Sox, the batting averages, the ERA projections.









Just to satisfy those that"just wanna know", here you are. ( see above )

No Arod controversy since he is suspended for one year, but expect the tabloids to have many side stories as Alex decides to tell his side through the press.

The team has outfield, give them that at least, but that infield of Brian Roberts, Derek Jeter, Kelly Johnson and Teixiera is creaky and I guarantee won't hold up this season.

57 years ago this came out, wish I had a copy, but the Bronx Bombers were on top of the world, now they sit on top on the most money spent.

Who is their best player ?

Is it a 24 year old Japanese pitcher ?

Is it a centre fielder stolen from their hated Red Sox rivals ?

Time has caught up with this team, they just refuse to look at their own drivers license. If they were milk, we would have poured them down the drain.  But this organization has lasted a long time, and will re invent themselves, again.

It is their nature and their destiny to be the New York Yankees.

Finding your groove zone and oh them 2013 World Series champs

Find your grove zone

At times, batters once find their groove zone wonder if they will ever lose it, when will they re locate it if they ever lose it. Hit it to left field, right field, hitting is instinctive, and instincts are the best tools a hitter can have.

Batters
In Stephen Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Napoli (re - signed ), and Saltalamacchia, Boston has lost to free agency a foursome that accounted for over 2100 plate appearances and 16 wins in the club’s championship 2013 campaign. A difficult thing, is what that would appear to be. One notes, however, that a team never loses a departed player’s performance from the previous season, but from the one ahead. Napoli and Saltalamacchia, for example, are unlikely to match their plus-.350 BABIP figures from 2013. discounts their likely 2014 value accordingly.
One notes also that Boston isn’t entirely ill-equipped to deal with those departures. Two of the organization’s more promising young players, Boegarts and Bradley appear to be reasonable — and very cost-effective — alternatives to Drew and Ellsbury. A.J.Pierzynski, meanwhile — whose signing was announced as this actual paragraph was being written — will likely provide as much in the way of wins as Saltalamacchia would have, with less of an investment. Some combination of Mike Carp and  David Nava ought to approximate Napoli’s two-win projection at first base. All told, the Red Sox are probably at a deficit of something like two wins.
This, of course, ignores how Boston might choose to utilize the payroll freed up by the aforementioned departures. That same foursome was paid about $30 million collectively in 2013. With a well-established starting rotation, Boston is in a position to focus its resources on upgrades among its field players. Pierzynski is one step in that direction. One supposes that an upgrade at first base/left field could be another.

Pitchers
It’s difficult to tell whether a year is a very long or very short unit of measure. Relative to the wild expanse of the universe, of course, each year is like a finger snap. For anyone reasonably well acquainted with John Lackey,, however, it assuredly seems much longer. The right-hander entered 2013 having not pitched at all the previous season — and having been a source of considerable angst among Bostonians when he had pitched before that. Over the course of this past year, however, he became the next-most dependable starter after Jon Lester on Boston’s staff. His 2013 strikeout projection, : 5.53 K/9. His projection for 2014: 7.54 K/9. Striking out two more batters per nine innings is of some benefit to a pitcher’s success.
While there’s likely to be considerable turnover among Boston’s field players, the pitching staff will enter 2014 relatively unchanged, it would appear. Ryan Dempster and Felix Doubrant are both candidates for the fifth spot in the rotation. Other than that, however, the rotation is pretty clear. Boston’s top two relievers in 2013,Uehara and Tazawa, are also returning.

Bench/Prospects
As noted above — and despite the fact that they’ve recorded only about 150 major-league plate appearances between them — both Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley appear to be important pieces for Boston entering 2014. Nor does that appear to represent the entirety of the Sox’ minor-league talent likely capable of producing something of note at the major leagues. Very promising infielders Garin Cecchini and Mookie Betts are regarded  as something better than replacement level — as is each member of the catching triumvirate of Daniel Butler, Ryan Lavarnway. Among pitchers there’s perhaps less in the way of ready talent, although Matt Barnes made his way to Triple-A by the end of the season and is reasonably well-acquitted , as well.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Red Sox, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

February 3rd, 2014 and waiting for pitchers and catchers, and Orioles in 14'

The Plate

Find me anyone after the Super Bowl who is not actively checking when the boys report.

Most as of the end of the Super Bowl have started planning that winter trip to south Florida, or Arizona to follow the dream.

Right now the fields are covered, the grounds keepers have begun to cut and add more seed, and trim the foul lines.

The Field

Florida awaits the players so until then, we shall begin a short analysis of the teams in the American League.


Baltimore Orioles

Batters

Whether by design or not, Baltimore appears to be doing a bit of work with the stars-and-scrubs model of roster construction at the moment. Chris Davis, J.J. Hardy , Adam Jones,Manny Machado ,Matt Weiters : these are the names of five Oriole position players who are projected to record something better than three wins in 2014. Meanwhile, no other batter both (a) presently employed by Baltimore and also (b) expected to begin the season as a starter — no other such player is projected to produce anything better than even one win.
Provided the club is still looking to add talent, this actually isn’t an entirely unenviable state of affairs. Where it might be difficult to upgrade a roster full entirely of average players, there are very clear means by which to improve this roster. Like at DH, for example. Or second base, for other example. Or left field. Or even right field, where starter Nick Markakis has managed just three wins over the last three seasons.

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Manny Machado	R	21	3B	684	84	173	43	5	19	80	8	6
Matt Wieters	B	28	C	573	62	129	28	0	21	80	2	0
J.J. Hardy	R	31	SS	612	70	150	26	1	22	72	1	1
Adam Jones	R	28	CF	662	88	172	32	2	28	92	13	5
Chris Davis	L	28	1B	612	83	145	27	1	41	107	3	3
Michael Ohlman	R	23	C	388	42	92	20	2	8	39	4	0
Jonathan Schoop	R	22	2B	471	55	107	19	1	15	51	3	4
Michael Morse	R	32	RF	427	52	100	19	0	20	57	0	1
Nate McLouth	L	32	LF	482	57	103	21	3	11	35	17	4
Ryan Flaherty	L	27	2B	391	39	84	16	2	13	47	3	2
Danny Valencia	R	29	3B	513	55	123	29	2	16	68	2	4
Nick Markakis	L	30	RF	639	72	159	29	2	12	62	5	2
Cord Phelps	B	27	2B	475	51	104	21	3	10	50	5	4
Jason Pridie	L	30	CF	368	36	80	13	2	10	35	6	2
Lew Ford	R	37	CF	198	22	45	12	1	7	24	2	1
Steve Clevenger	L	28	C	298	27	70	14	1	4	27	0	1
Luis Exposito	R	27	C	319	30	67	17	0	7	31	0	1
Jemile Weeks	B	27	2B	592	67	129	20	7	4	38	17	6
Chris Snyder	R	33	C	260	26	50	8	0	9	33	0	1
Steve Pearce	R	31	DH	223	23	47	10	0	7	27	2	1
Trayvon Robinson	B	26	CF	478	50	95	17	2	13	47	15	6
Brian Roberts	B	36	2B	214	21	48	9	1	4	25	3	1
Alexi Casilla	B	29	2B	243	30	54	12	2	1	21	13	2
Conor Jackson	R	32	RF	214	21	47	10	0	4	19	2	1
Henry Urrutia	L	27	RF	428	45	114	17	2	9	41	1	1
Nolan Reimold	R	30	DH	257	29	54	8	1	10	28	3	1
Taylor Teagarden	R	30	C	143	11	25	4	0	4	14	0	0
Wilson Betemit	B	32	3B	253	26	56	12	1	7	27	1	1
Glynn Davis	R	22	CF	496	43	106	16	2	1	28	22	12
Chris Dickerson	L	32	DH	282	32	55	12	1	6	23	10	2
Francisco Peguero	R	26	RF	454	51	111	15	4	7	47	8	3
Brandon Wood	R	29	SS	313	27	61	12	1	6	28	1	0
Christian Walker	R	23	1B	486	48	122	23	0	9	45	3	4
Chih-Hsien Chiang	L	26	RF	531	50	121	29	2	10	52	2	2
Brenden Webb	L	24	RF	452	39	72	15	2	8	33	9	6

Pitchers
Conveniently for the narrative created by the author above, the Baltimore starting rotation is constructed in almost the exact opposite way as its field players. Where there’s a considerable gap in talent between the best and worst of the latter, the former is at least — composed of pitchers likely to produce similar outcomes (if by different means). Here, from best to worst, are the projected ERA minuses (“ERA-s,” plural?) of the pitchers most likely to begin the season in the O’s rotation: 99, 100, 100, 103, 104. That, in the event that the reader is unacquainted with arithmetic, is only a five-point difference between starter No. 1 and No. 5. Not a bad thing, that, but indicative of a club lacking in high-end starters.
Insofar as it won’t feature Jim Johnson as closer, the Baltimore relief corps will have changed entering 2014. Insofar as Johnson-clone Ryan Webb— signed for two years and $4.5 million after being non-tendered by Miami — insofar as Webb will pitch for Baltimore, the relief corps will actually remain largely unchanged. Generally average, is what that would appear to mean.

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Chris Tillman	R	26	32	32	187.0	167	66	27	176	92	86
Wei-Yin Chen	L	28	27	27	160.0	129	46	21	161	79	74
Bud Norris	R	29	30	29	173.3	158	64	22	172	89	83
Miguel Gonzalez	R	30	29	24	150.7	117	49	20	147	75	70
Kevin Gausman	R	23	27	27	147.3	129	36	18	151	75	70
Mike Wright	R	24	25	25	137.0	93	36	17	148	73	68
Scott Feldman	R	31	26	22	128.7	93	38	18	132	68	64
Jason Hammel	R	31	25	22	132.7	100	48	18	138	73	68
Darren O’Day	R	31	66	0	59.3	62	15	7	51	24	22
Dylan Bundy	R	21	13	13	78.0	59	33	10	81	43	40
Zach Britton	L	26	26	25	133.3	93	61	17	145	78	73
Eduardo Rodriguez	L	21	23	23	120.3	76	49	15	132	71	66
Brian Matusz	L	27	69	0	59.0	58	21	6	54	26	24
Tommy Hunter	R	27	70	0	81.0	69	17	12	79	39	36
Francisco Rodriguez	R	32	62	0	58.7	61	23	7	53	27	25
Troy Patton	L	28	51	0	58.7	47	16	7	58	28	26
T.J. McFarland	L	25	31	14	109.7	69	45	13	122	65	61
Ryan Webb	R	28	64	0	69.0	46	24	7	71	34	32
Kelvin De La Cruz	L	25	53	0	68.3	63	37	7	64	34	32
Zech Zinicola	R	29	36	0	45.7	35	16	5	47	24	22
Tim Bascom	R	29	25	13	88.3	55	46	10	96	55	51
Oliver Drake	R	27	32	0	42.7	34	18	5	42	22	21
Tsuyoshi Wada	L	33	17	17	93.3	70	41	16	103	60	56
Edgmer Escalona	R	27	47	0	57.3	48	20	9	57	31	29
Eddie Gamboa	R	29	24	18	103.7	61	43	15	117	66	62
Brad Brach	R	28	71	0	74.0	71	31	12	73	41	38
Tim Berry	L	23	26	25	132.3	76	50	19	155	86	80
Daniel Schlereth	L	28	24	0	24.0	22	18	3	23	15	14
Jon Rauch	R	35	41	0	36.3	28	12	7	39	22	21
Steve Johnson	R	26	27	18	100.3	84	57	17	105	66	62
Nick Additon	L	26	22	20	112.7	81	49	21	124	75	70
Devin Jones	R	23	26	19	117.3	75	43	21	136	78	73
Daniel McCutchen	R	31	39	3	61.7	41	25	10	69	40	37
Brock Huntzinger	R	25	41	7	78.3	55	38	13	87	51	48
Mike Belfiore	L	25	39	0	70.3	58	36	12	75	45	42
Chris Jones	L	25	41	0	68.0	41	40	8	76	44	41
Jake Pettit	L	27	24	23	124.3	70	46	23	148	88	82
Tim Alderson	R	25	39	4	80.0	56	33	16	91	56	52
Tyler Wilson	R	24	35	25	152.7	96	59	29	178	108	101
Zach Clark	R	30	24	22	116.7	50	71	17	141	87	81
Josh Stinson	R	26	38	21	128.3	67	79	20	148	93	87
Mark Hendrickson	L	40	31	0	51.3	23	21	11	64	41	38

***

Baltimore's season comes down to their pitching staff and the prospects coming through the system.

Bench/Prospects
One will note the author’s careful wording in the Batters section above regarding those field players who are projected  to produce less than a win in 2014. The wording is necessary, on account of there are actually two players in the organization, Michael Ohlman and Johnathan Schoop projected to approach league-average baseball value in 2014. The former is a catcher/corner-type; the latter, an infielder who’s split his minor-league career between second and short. Neither appears likely to begin the season, however, with a substantial role at the major-league level. Among pitchers, one finds celebrated prospect Dylan Bundy‘s name among those projected here. He’s expected to return at some point in the middle of the season following Tommy John surgery.