Tuesday, December 30, 2014

Jays need a closer

Jays need a guy still that comes in the ninth inning and gets them 1-2-3, done.

To date, I hear that Krod is being sought, and here is the item.

Jon Heyman reports that Francisco Rodriguez is on the Blue Jays' radar.
Heyman adds, however, that the Jays are trying to trade for a closer first. Rodriguez posted a strong 3.04 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 73/18 K/BB ratio in 68 innings this season for the Brewers while recording 44 saves in 49 chances. He's only 32 years old, so the asking price is probably pretty high. 
 
The above photo is Rollie Fingers, maybe in the discussion of most successful closer, 3 WS titles with the 70's Athletics. 
 
 Mo Rivera is of course the modern age standard for closers, and perhaps the best ever.  Well he had Jeter at shortstop, so he defense behind him. Ha ha , just kidding, makes him even more valuable.

Will Jays get a someone or a committee ?  I would spend to get a someone, but it ain't my money so spend some Rogers. Krod, or someone with a reputation for not blowing up.

The free agent market is pretty thin for quality closers, not to mention the fact that you often have to overpay for pitchers with high save totals. Francisco Rodriguez and Rafael Soriano are both still available as well as recently released Brian Wilson who could be signed for an extremely team-friendly contract. The options through trade are obviously endless, but acquiring a team's closer is often a pricey endeavor.
 
My choice is Brian Wilson, and here is why,
 
The Dodgers officially cut ties on Friday with relief pitcher Brian Wilson, releasing the right-hander, a team source confirmed.
Wilson was designated for assignment on Tuesday to make room on the 40-man roster for Brandon McCarthy. The team had 10 days to try to make a deal for Wilson, or put him on waivers.
"We have had conversations with other clubs leading up to this to see if there is interest out there," general manager Farhan Zaidi said on Tuesday. "We have a few days to sort that out."
The Dodgers are on the hook for Wilson's $10 million salary in 2015, the result of his exercise of a player option for 2015. The right-hander parlayed 19⅔ great innings in 2013 (including playoffs) coming off Tommy John surgery into a one-year deal plus an option that will ultimately pay Wilson $20 million.
Wilson put up a 4.66 ERA and 4.29 FIP in 61 games, with 54 strikeouts and 29 walks in 48⅓ innings.
Should Wilson sign elsewhere in 2015, the Dodgers' financial obligation would be reduced. In other words, look for some other team to pay Wilson no more than the major league minimum of $507,500 in base salary. 
 
Alex would be glad to pay the Beard $ 507,500 and lett he Dodgers pay the balance and let Wilson try to rebound.  Reduce the walks Brian, and watch the ERA plummet. 
 
I would say, give it a shot, why not. What can you lose.  If someone emerges as a better closer, gteat, sign him for 2 years, the second year being a club option.
 
There you go Alex, problem solved.   Next blog I will hope to make sense of second base.


Saturday, December 20, 2014

The Trade before Christmas.

It was the trade before Christmas andall throught the house, I was grinning ear to ear.

Happiness is a warm gun, quote the Beatles, but for me it is a wonderful off season fantasy baseball trade.

I finished in the wild card slot, due to a unspectacular September, and the loss of Garrett Richards with a season ending injury, then the Rays shut down Drew Smyly just to make sure my carcas was done.

So we lost an owner after the season ended, it happens, but up sprouts a new owner, eager and looking for deals.

He sends Pedroia for Machado, which I think is okay in my books,  then after a few e-mails, where upon I ask about 23 year old Marcus Stroman,and he offers me Lorenzo Cain, and Stroman for my 8th round pick and Brett Gardner.  I asked the junior partner ( my son ) and faster than Jackie Robinson can say Jackie Robinson, he says make the deal before he changes his mind.

The deal in half an hour is concluded before anyone get get on their kerchielf or night cap and winter's naps have begun.

Visions of a strengthened centre field defense danced through my head, and an ace on the mound, and it's ain't Saint Nick, but young Stroman out on the new fallen snow, gave a lot of luster, despite the lack of snow.

Wax poetic, I do, it is the happiness of a wonderful trade before Christmas.

Now if I can permitted to be a sight Scrooge like in looking for some replacement picks perhaps for young Santiago, and longtime Elephant Matt Holliday.


Monday, November 24, 2014

The Window just shut

The window on the Blue Jays just shut with the report that the Red Sox have added The Panda, and also Hanley Ramirez.   We thought the Sox would re tool after dealing John Lester. and they have.

I can only imagine what those Bronx Bombers are thinking today.  The Red Sox are reported to have snageed 2 large prize additions.  Hanley will play short or perhaps the outfield while The Panda will patrol 3rd base. At least for a year until David Ortiz retires, then The Panda will replace Big Papi at DH. 

And then they will get started at re tooling the rotation. And then let's wait for Steinbrenners kids to start screaming at Brian Cashman, and then those Yanks will start up. Depending on whether they have sent Arod and his contract to the curb. They will need the money, but frankly when has spending money been a problem for New York.

Don't forget about the Birds, they have re sign Nelson Cruz, or get a suitable replacement.  Anyway you slice it, with the Red Sox getting a jump on Black Friday, and Xmas shopping, let's agree that adding Russell Martin was a nice Canadian come home story, and move on.

Let's enjoy the fact we were in first for a stage, and be nostalgic.  The window folks, has just shut on 2015.

Friday, September 19, 2014

September

Find me a newspaper, I cannot stand internet reading any longer. Into September I crave to read the paper and box scores, look at the games ahead, the games in hand, and upcoming serties.

Life is already fast paced, isn't it ?

That is why I crave the krinkle of the sports section, the feel in my hands, folded , rolled, bent and yet always there and reliable, like a good chair to observe the baseball world.

There are times, I am happy to look at my tablet/ipad, but I always rely on the net , passwords, and being able to avoid the tedious process to get to what I really want to see.  Have the Dodgers clinched, will the Pirates have a chance. Who is matched up today for Oakland, what pitcher is throwing against what pitcher.


To me, I can do all that on one page, and I carry that image around all day, and can relive that experience on the way home.

It is a comfort, in September, when it counts the most, less than a dozen games, then down to 10, who's out and who's home and cooled.  How often are the O's playing their regulars, are the Nats pitching Strasbourg more than 5 innings, what kids are playing, how's that new Boston Cuban OF doing, Rusney something.  Boy is Jeter gone cold.

I get more from reading boxscores that Steven Hawking gets from a slide rule, or at least, I get more out of reading them.

Days were when I kept the Saturday scores and last 2 pages because they showed the top 50 hitters, and pitchers, innings, won-loss, era leaders, they do not need to, as there is somewhere out there on the net you can filter, and look at.

I wish for simpler days, but I won't get them, but they were far easier to fathom.

By the way, regarding the home squad, since Joey Bats explained after the O's clinched and he did not care about the division, they have not won a game.

And are falling again. 

My next entry will be after the season is over, let the playoffs begin.



Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Come with me now, watch the Angels



So the song is stuck in my head currently, even as I watch the game. This Spouth African quartet and their cajun styling and thumping lrics have me hummin their damn song all the way home.

Don't they know I am trying to pay attention to the game, I have pitchers pitching I gotta pay attention to.
These Kongoes or Kongos or whatever the hell they are called are screwing up my mojo.

A week ago I watched an Ice Bucket Challenge starring Paul Bissonette, and this song is playing. The trailer for Expendables 3 is on, and this song wafts through.

Anyhow,  can you believe the Angels luck ?

Tyler Skaggs, Tommy John surgery
Garrett Richards..really hard to watch...not as gut wrenching as the Dave Dravecky ( go on youtube ) injury.

Enter Matt Shoemaker..1 hits the Fish.. Hec Santiago churning out 5-6 innings keeping his team in the game. Albert has picked up the slack, and if Josh Hamilton can kick it up, theses guys have the every day players to make noise.

SHHHH !!!


So please do not disturb the local ball club, they are trying to curl up in a ball and ignore the rest of the world. Based on their recent road performance, I question whether they even showed up at all.
Since they have come home, they have eked out a single win over the Rays, and given Boston new life.

The Sox had gone 8 straight without seeing a win, then the landed in the land of milk and honey, and shazzam, suddenly they can pitch, they can hit, they field, and they have taken the first 2 games so far.

Are these guys still sleeping, or just sleep walking ?   If it matters , we are at the end of August, the dog days have ended, dogs are sleeping. You all know about letting sleeping dogs, leave them alone.

So while the Jays do not matter, I will offer some insights on the American League.

>
The Orioles are home free
The Tigers are toothless
Royals are team of destiny
A's - who the christ knows
Angels lose 2 starting pitchers, and keep winning
Rays..looks like 2015 will be good
Rangers..holy christ..what happened to them, weren't they in the World Series a few years ago
Yanks..gotta give it to the pin stripes, they got game
White Sox....fire sale anyone
Mariners..still think they are pretenders..but  a 1 game playoff with Felix...I like their chances if that happens

What will happen in the off season for the sleepy Jays, change the bedding, change some pieces but what direction will they be headed in.

What do I see ?

Royals or Angels playing the Orioles to get into the World Series.  So much for the Tigers and A's dueling it out.



Wednesday, August 20, 2014

The Jays look run down

The field looks so big, and the team looks quite small at this stage of the season. I think they got the most they could, but appear they are still a .500 ball club who had a hot May.
They lost players, but so does many teams, Just look at the NY Yankees rotation, not the stuff of legends there. I think the current GM is maybe on his way out. Reason I say that is that I am not sure how long the board will let Paul Beeston stay and Anthopolous is a Besston boy.

I think the die is cast, profits grew , fans appeared, at a considerable cost, but like the Leafs, the Jays are skidding off the to the side like a old car and will plummet below not only the Yankees, but Tampa eventually. A 4rth place finish when they perched in first by 6 games spells doom for the GM and manager.  Gibbons was Alex's choice, so should Alex walk, Gibbons will follow.

I like both guys, don't get me wrong, I though Anthopolous was a breathe of fresh air versus Riccardi, a spin doctor of the worst kind. But new shake ups in ownership have alerted us that Rogers wanted product placement, not championships. Blackberry's using Rogers air space, promos, TV spots, and new customers.

The team looks like they wish August 31st was September 30th, and September they have numerous games against top teams, and they will have nothing left.

I think they need to shut Hutchinson down now, and perhaps if they fall to 4rth soon, Strohman in early September. What's to be proven to let them achieve 200 innings. Hutch already had 3 very rough outings, Strohman less so but he came up part way into the season, but had his worst outing last weekend. He is fresher, but his psyche is fragil, despite his birth certificate. 

Lind has scuffled, Edwin is not in the groove and let's face it, too many Triple AAA types litter their line up.  They just look spent. The farm system was gutted, and needs a few good drafts now to recover. USA rate the Jays farm system in the bottom 10 of the majors, and bottom 10 is a compliment. So have other baseball evaluators.

GM's don't see the next wave of solid prospects, which is why they were asking for Sanchez and Strohman at the July deadline, or everyday players. The cupboard is sparse.

The problems the Jays will face is that they have money tied up in Buerhle, RA Dickey, Bautista, Reyes, and long deals. I expect these guys are all on revoccable waivers, such as the TExas Rangers have Darvish, Beltre and Rios, and Andrus. In hopes of returning kids and reducing payroll.

3 of their big money players need to move on, use that capital wisely and re stock the shelf with draftees and kids from other teams.  Next year cut ties with Rasmus, try and re sign Melky, get Gose back in CF, find a bloody 2nd baseman and put safety bubble wrap on Brett Lawrie,  Strohman, Hutchinson, and Sanchez are your core arms, try and move  out the deadwood, or the expensice kindling before they burn up. 

Hire Ernie Whitt as your next manager. He knows how to talk to kids, knows the market and the history, and go back to drawing board. See if you can pry Ortiz out of Boston, he always hits well here, and for him, a change of scenary might help for a year. Meld smart savvy vets with the kids.

They look old and tried to me, do they to you ?



Sunday, August 10, 2014

August Swoon, Dog Days, and summer movies

August has brought a swoon to Toronto. After dusting off the yanks, Red Sox, the Jays cannot get things into the first gear.

Orioles came in an took 2 of 3. Tigers stole game1 of 3,Casey got knocked his perch in a 9th inning met down,Jays won the middle game, thanks to a less than stellar Joe Nathan, but the Jays don't look formidable.  They seem be ready for an August swoon, the Rays are coming !



Jays toss the old horsehide around.   In August, it is tradition for each team to hold a " dog days " event.


The Jays are no exception to that promotion, but the term The phrase dog days refers to the sultry days of summer  In the Northern Hemisphere the dog days of summer are most commonly experienced in the months of July and August, which typically observe the hottest summer temperatures. In the Southern Hemisphere, they typically occur in January and February, in the midst of the austral summer.

 The August swoon is upon us, 3weeks till someone says these games really count. Of course they count, but these next 3 count out teams, and count in those that survive.

And August movies, I like the Guardians, the Apes so far. Somehow I am the 6th guardian, but cannot divulge the plot twist in the sequel.


The debate rages - Would youy rather have Kadri or Brett Lawrie

A little over a year ago, I thought it was a fair argument that we compared Brett Lawrie, and Kadri.
Usually it becomes clearer that one of these two local athletes would exert themselves as the better choice by now, but after almost 2 years, we are not any further ahead.

I have watched both players have huge hi lights and major low lights, but both always show tremendous upside. Kadri gets the big goal in a big game, Brett Lawrie display remarkable defensive skills, and makes incredible plays in the field.

They both have the eyes of the city of Toronto upon them as Canadian born talent. Kadri a real local, Lawrie a BC home product in an American sport.  They both arrived with fanfare. Kadri, the first round pick of the Leafs, Lawrie was acquired via trade.

The other similarity is position, Lawrie has played 3rd base predominantly, but 2nd base most recently and Kadri has bounced from wing to centre , form 3rd line, 2nd line, and had a tryout with Kessel.

I also think Kadri has the largest edge because Toronto is a Leaf town, but Lawrie has the chance to play twice as many games as Kadri.

So who is ahead of whom at this point ?

Leaf fans would say Kadri, but he has been the centre of so many trade rumours,I don't think management totally hears the die hard fans.

After the Jays season is over, the spotlight is back on Kadri, and with Lawrie's injuries, he can have the stage again.  I still don't have the answer, the debate rages on.

Sunday, July 13, 2014

At the half

So here we are at the half, and I apologize for the lack of writing, it has been a struggle. We lost my Dad in March, and my life changed.

But slow recoveries we earned. Life goes on, I listened to more people, took their advise and feel like I will make it.

Strong family, great  job, and my love of sports give me strength, and so I am back behind the keyboard.

So, as I listen to Dan Schulman on Baseball Tonight, I write at the last league game before the All Star Break. 

And it is the Oakland A's leading the charge, looking for some 40 year magic, the last time the A's won the World Series.  They were playing day World Series games in that time, now, they all start at 8 or 8:30 pm.

So, this photo this the owner Charles O. Finlay, with Rudi, Blue, Hunter, Campy, Tenace, Bando, Reggie Reggie and Rollie Fingers. Quite a collection, most soon to be millionaires on the open market.

Reggie left for the Tanks, Fingers to San Diego, Catfish a Yank, Rudi to the Sox.  They strung 3 Series wins together 72, 73 and 74.

These rebels existed before "fear the Beard", the "Country up Sox",  these dudes broke all the conventional rules for a cohesive clubhouse.

They have 59 wins, most in the majors, and they do it pitching, good defense and they use the whole roster.

And they don't hesitate to make changes. They brought in Samardzija and Hammel from the Cubs to a pitching staff that looked solid. A bullpen, which looks damn perfect.

If you put another bat in their line-up, I'd stack them against the Dodders or Giants or Brewers.





The World Series does not get awarded in early July, but they clearly rise up over the Tigers, anyone in the East, and Mariners and Angels might both be Wild card teamd.

Clearly the west cost can boast this year, there is no less that 5 teams that could make the playoffs from out west. The A's are the class of the American League, but we as usual, we've got a lot of baseball left to play.

Enjoy !

Sunday, April 13, 2014

It has been 40 years

April, 1974.

"He's sitting on 714"

I can remember the moment on Monday Night Night Baseball, an anticipation of history.   LA Dodgers pitcher, left hander Al Downing tossed another hard inside pitch to Henry Aaron.

This pitch would not get tossed back by Joe Ferguson.

This pitch would leave the field and be a record.

Lest we forget Babe Ruth, but 715 had been reached, a home run milestone. He finished his career off with his 755th home run.  No drugs, no scandals, no issues.

This week we celebrate a 40 year reminder that a black baseball player passed the legendary Babe Ruth.  Somehow, I never felt Aaron got his due, there was always something missing.

The reason was easy, Aaron was black, and the USA was not quite as race tolerant as they feel they have become.  Ruth, still a hero of many generations was white and a cultural icon.  Forget the fact he drank heavily, cheated on his fight, and had an ego the size of his gut, he is remembered fondly for changing the game. 


Aaron was the victim of horrible racism, hate letters and death threats. White racism was very prevalent in 1974.

Aaron soldiered on, we all thought that before the end of the 1973 season, Aaron would have caught and passed Ruth, but pitchers seemed to be pitching very carefully.  Some reporters stated openly that white pitchers were avoiding being the one to give up a home run to Henry.

Al Downing of the LA Dodgers, a black pitcher, never worried about that. The LA Dodgers were very good team in 74, and would challenge for the World Series against the Oakland A's.  Al did not care what record was at stake, he just wanted the out.

I watched that game, anticipating an event, and was not disappointed. It went high, deep and long and not come back. 

40 years from now, there might another record set, and I hope my son will see it. By then, I hope society has dropped all feelings of racism, or at least most criticism of others. Celebrate the event !

Saturday, March 22, 2014

$pring Training


I think if you ask any players today after 3 weeks of games, on March 22, they would say we're ready to play, and managers would love to avoid playing vets in meaningless games.


When or if will they reduce the amount of games in Spring Training.






Not any time soon. The amount of money made in running games in Florida and Arizona. Unfortunately, many smaller communities depend on 30 games and 30 dates selling 8 to 10,000 seats, parking revenue, plus all the souvenirs.





40 years ago these games were needed because many players needed 4-5 weeks time to reduce winter fat, but players show up in shape as they train year round.









$pring Training is a combo of getting pitchers ready, and a pure money grab. As I say, 30 chances to re coup dollars, plus the chance in January to get the cash from fantasy camps. 

Now this year, is anyone ready for baseball to return to the north ?


I just hope someone reminded the weather man that March 31 st is Game 1, and that is just 9 days from today.









Saturday, February 15, 2014

When will Oakland find the right mixture

 

When the Athletics finally reach the World Series  the fans in California will breathe a sigh of relief, as the A's are often bridesmaids, and never brides.



Batters
What the depth-chart graphic below doesn’t represent very well, but what is still true of the Oakland A’s, is that they’ll probably be getting value from players who aren’t proper starters. Of particular note in this regard is outfielder Craig Gentry for whom Oakland traded Micheal Choice and a friend to Texas this offseason. Gentry’s defensive figures over the last three season have been, speaking in very technical sabermetric terms, entirely bananas. Accordingly, it’s not so unexpected to see him receive a very optimistic projection here in just 300 or so plate appearances.
Also of note: John Jaso is projected as a catcher here, but is likely to get a significant numbers of plate appearances — perhaps the bulk of them — at DH. Even a poor defensive catcher still receives a pretty substantial increase in value by way of positional adjustment — relative to a designated hitter, certainly. Expecting him to produce two wins in a DH capacity might be unrealistic

Pitchers
The starting pitchers in the depth-chart graphic below are arranged not in order of expected rotation slot.What doing that reveals is how Sonny Gray , and probably not Jarrod Parker, is maybe the staff ace. What it also reveals is that Tommy Milone, currently not expected to be included in the opening-day rotation, is projected like a pitcher who probably should be.
Elsewhere, one finds that Scott Kazmir‘s projection  isn’t a particularly favorable one. The reason for that, though, appears due less to mediocrity on a rate basis and more to a pretty conservative innings projections (91.1). This isn’t particularly strange for a pitcher who returned in 2013 following nearly a full two-year layoff.

Bench/Prospects

Given both his (a) skills and (b) performances relative to age/level, it’s not surprising to learn that shortstop Addison Russell is one of the top prospects in baseball. What’s perhaps more surprising is that Russell, who’s recorded just 13 cursory plate appearances above High-A ball, is projected already to produce wins at a league-average rate in the majors. He would appear, at this juncture, to be considerably more advanced than most of the other rookie-eligible players in the Oakland system.

Depth Chart

Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the A’s, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post.

Oakland Depth

Baseball in the streets


You can play the game anywhere and I have.

The game was initially supposed to be a pastoral set outdoors to allow young people to fill their lungs with clean air and benefit their health. Poppycock ! The games most ardent roots come from playing in downtown Brooklyn, or San Juan, or east LA or downtown Detroit or across from the drug store in Boston.  Side of a hill or in a deserted schoolyard.

In Latin America, the  difficulties stem from what equipment is available. No gloves, or tattered ones, fields are make shift, no grass, mostly rocks, hard scrabble grey and bumpy.

The highest baseball tournament in Latin America is the Caribbean Series (Serie del Caribe), with participants including the winners of the Winter Leagues in Mexico, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic and Venezuela.
According to some, baseball is today more popular in Latin America than in the United States. It is no secret that USA, Japan and Latin America are top baseball countries but it seems that recently the game has lost some of its popularity in the United States.

This never happened in Latin America, where people are still very passionate about the game.

There is absolutely no doubt that baseball is one of the most popular sports in Latin America, especially in the Caribbean region. There are many possible reasons for this. First of all, sporting competition has always been a big thing in Latin America. Just think about the popularity of soccer, among other sports. When it comes to baseball, it seems that this game is perceived as a perfect way for a poor buy from a humble environment to rise above his status and become a star.

Baseball players in Latin America are highly regarded and often idolized by the fans, maybe even more than their colleagues in the USA. Winter League stars are regarded as national heroes and if they are lucky enough to reach the American major league (which many of them actually do), they are in for something of a cult status. This probably has much to do with the fact that so many people in Latin America struggle with poverty and they find much consolation in the fact that some of them can actually reach success and a better life.

In addition to that, baseball is more suitable for kids in dense urban areas to play. It does not require vast fields and can be played in the street. If you are poor, you only need a small field and some rocks to mark the bases. If you don’t have a proper baseball, you can use a tennis ball or some other sort of ball. Not having proper equipment never seems to stop kids in Latin America from playing.

Also, baseball does not require perfect or at least specific physical shape and condition, like football and basketball, which is one of the possible reasons for the popularity of baseball in Latin America.
Compared to Americans, the Latinos seem to care more about baseball, its rules, seasons and players. Baseball is not a sport with simple rules and enjoying it to the fullest often requires a great deal of knowledge and focus. Latin American fans are believed by many to be the most dedicated and knowledgeable when it comes to baseball. They also expect a lot from their players, who need to go all in in each and every game, or else the fans may actually turn their backs on them. This, of course, increases the quality of the players and of the game.



 American kids would sneak out of the orphanages into empty parks. Here the kids begin the ritual of deciding who has first ups.


Central America and the winter leagues














Major league players will be allowed to compete in winter leagues this season after Major League Baseball and the players' association reached an agreement on restrictions that will limit pitchers' participation but loosen limitations on position players, sources with knowledge of the deal told Yahoo Sports.

Terse negotiations between the parties in recent months stoked fears that players on teams' 40-man rosters – the stars and staples of leagues in the Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Puerto Rico and Mexico – would be barred from playing this year. The five-year agreement, reached Friday and ratified by the Caribbean Confederation on Saturday, will allow players to report within a week.

MLB aimed to keep pitchers – particularly young ones – from taxing their arms after significant workloads, while the union wanted to allow players as much leeway as possible to play if they desire. In the past, teams have been allowed to restrict players based on "extreme fatigue" and "physical incapacity" rules that related to player usage and injuries the previous season. 

Starting this year, Double-A starting pitchers – those on the 40-man roster with a majority of their time spent at Double-A – cannot participate in winter ball if they threw 140 or more innings. The previous threshold was 155. Similarly, Double-A relievers cannot have appeared in more than 45 games, while in years past it was 55.

Pitchers also are ineligible if their workload in games or innings grew 25 percent over the prior season. The caveats: They must've reached 60 percent of the games-or-innings threshold the previous season, and players switching from the rotation to the bullpen or vice versa don't count.
Instead of a 502-plate appearance threshold for major league position players, those with up to 552 now can play winter ball. Moreover, the past procedure of declaring a "physical incapacity" – teams simply had to provide documentation – now has strict rules. Unless a player finishes the season on the disabled list or spent 60 days on the DL (including 15 over the final 60 days of the season), a team cannot declare him physically incapable. The exception is pitchers who have undergone major surgery in the previous 18 months.

Off-field improvements for players include the requirement of MLB-certified trainers, higher-quality equipment and increased standards for fields, clubhouses and bathrooms, with a compliance program to address issues.

The Venezuelan Winter League and Mexican Pacific League began play this week. The biggest and best league, the Dominican Winter League, starts Friday, and opening day for the Puerto Rican League is Nov. 1. The league's winners will meet in the Caribbean Series, scheduled to be held on Margarita Island, Venezuela, in February 2014. 











Jeter



Run a Google search for :Derek Jeter" and “defense” and you get almost 700,000 results. Run a Google search for "Chipper Jones" and you get fewer than 450,000 results. I suppose now you can bump each of those up by one. The matter of Jeter’s defense is a tired, tired topic, and it was a tired, tired topic years ago. Personally, I try to avoid tired topics. But in this instance, I think there’s something; something not enough attention has been paid to on account of the raging argument elsewhere.

People have argued about only part of the story.
 
You all should be familiar with the position of the advanced defensive metrics like DRS and UZR. It’s because of those metrics that an argument exists in the first place. Jeter loyalists have continued to insist he was at least a solid defensive shortstop in the past. UZR has disagreed, and DRS has more extremely disagreed, as they’ve both evaluated Jeter as subpar for the position. On the occasion of Jeter’s retirement announcement, there were people who couldn’t help but make fun of his defensive ability, and he’s been the butt of such jokes for much of his career. Jeter’s often been described as an awful defensive shortstop, or as something along those lines. While there’s been some basis for this, though, one of the key words in that description is “shortstop.”
 

Let’s say you’re a professional pie-eater. Congratulations! You’re one of the lucky ones! You’re able to reliably consume three pies in a timed sitting. Among the pie-eating circuit, this makes you more or less average. In one competition, against weaker foes, you eat your three pies, and no one else eats more than two. You’ve won! Then you move on to another, more challenging competition. Against stronger foes, you eat your three pies, but most everyone else eats four. You’ve lost. Your ability level was exactly the same, but the peers you were matched up against were better than the peers before, so relatively speaking, you looked worse.

 This has, in essence, been Jeter’s dilemma. Statistically, he’s been a below-average defensive shortstop, and everybody knows that. He’s also been a shortstop for his entire career, and shortstops are above-average defenders, relative to the Major League Baseball player pool. So on the one hand, Jeter’s been one of the worst. But on the other, he’s been one of the worst out of the best, so it’s important remember defensive numbers come within a certain positional context. Maybe Jeter’s like the worst beer from an excellent brewery.
In case you haven’t been able to look ahead, this whole post is basically just going to call attention to Jeter’s Defense rating. Every player on FanGraphs gets a Fielding rating, and a Positional rating. Combine them and you get the Defense rating, which allows for a direct comparison of players across different positions. Most of the talk about Jeter has had to do with the Fielding rating. That paints an incomplete picture.

In the past 50 years, 507 different players have batted at least 5,000 times. Sort by Fielding-per-150-games, and you find Jeter in 487th place, around names like Jay Buhner,Micheal Young and Bobby Bonilla. However, sort by Positional-per-150-games, and you find Jeter in 57th place, around names like Cal Ripken, Rafael Furcal and Omar Vizquel. This is the positional adjustment, and Jeter gets major points for being a shortstop — a position of considerable difficulty.
Sort by Defense-per-150-games, and you find Jeter in 252nd place. In other words, he’s right in the middle of the pack, near guys like Jeff Blauser, Andre Dawson, and Willie McGee. He comes out at -1.5 runs on that scale. He’s ahead of John Olerud. He’s ahead of Mark Grace and Rickey Henderson and Moises Alou. Jeter has drawn the criticism that he’s cost his team runs by playing a lousy shortstop, but overall he’s still been a reasonably valuable defensive player. That’s just because of his reliability at a difficult position.

The numbers they have at Baseball-Reference like Jeter less, and if you use their numbers for those same 507 guys in the past 50 years, you find Jeter in 341st place. It’s a worse place, to be sure, but it’s certainly not a dreadful place. And Jeter’s right by names like Nick Markakis and Shannon Stewart . He’s ahead of Jeff Bagwell. . And of course, we’re loyal to the numbers we have right here, so I look at these as a backup.

Let’s say you only want to know about the era during which we’ve had UZR. This stretches from 2002 to 2013, and during that span, 322 players have batted at least 2,500 times. Keep in mind this window ignores Jeter’s youngest years. Sort by Fielding-per-150-games, and you find Jeter in 280th place. Sort by Positional-per-150-games, and you find Jeter in 50th place. Sort by Defense-per-150-games, and you find Jeter in 161st place. Again, right in the middle. His spreadsheet neighbors include Andrew McCutcheon, Eric Byrnes and Ronnie Belliard and  I feel like I’d just be repeating myself if I noted the significance of this. There’s a difference between criticizing Jeter as a defensive shortstop, and criticizing Jeter as a defensive player.

To the eyes, Jeter can be pretty convincingly OK. At least, that has to be the takeaway from so many Yankees fans insisting he’s been fine. Part of that is because Yankees fans haven’t been able to watch any other Yankees shortstops. Part of it is because his missed plays aren’t egregious. Part of it is because the bar for defensive shortstops is really high, and so even a weaker shortstop can look playable. And part of it is because Jeter has long been so athletic, because his position has demanded it, because his position has been among the most demanding. He’s looked like he belongs on the field. That’s mostly because he has.

I get that Derek Jeter is polarizing, and I get that it’s fun to criticize a player the media’s never stopped putting on a pedestal. It’s certainly worthwhile to note Jeter hasn’t been a great defensive shortstop. While he’ll have absolutely zero trouble getting into the Hall of Fame, defense still is important when it comes to our understanding of what he’s been as a player. Jeter has had his on-field shortcomings. But it’s also important to not get carried away.

For his position, Jeter’s been one of the game’s worse defensive players. His position has included some of the very best defensive players in baseball. In terms of overall value, those about negate one another. In the end, the most correct opinion of Jeter’s defensive ability is, `Hey, he’s been all right.’



Sunday, February 9, 2014

Angels have high hopes

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High Hopes, we have high hopes,  just like the Sinatra song here in Anaheim. They have stiff competition as well.

The reader likely already knows, but the author will state for the benefit of anyone who might not, that it is generally the case with these projections that they’re more conservative than one’s own intuition might otherwise suggest.


Not infrequently, partisan commenters will respond to these posts with regard to this or that player, saying “I’ll take the over on that projection.” Perhaps, in some cases, that’s a fair statement to make: the relative success of the FAN projections also hosted at this site suggests that the crowd might have some insight into these matters. Still,my forecasts are derived empirically — and, to that end, can’t be merely ignored.

As has been the case in other editions of these posts, the starting pitchers included on the depth-chart graphic below are not listed in order of probable rotation slot. Rather what the author has done is to arrange the five pitchers most likely to make the opening-day rotation in order of projected WAR, according to experts.


While not a prospect proper, right fielder KoleCalhoun is a young player who enters the season with fewer than 250 career plate appearances and yet a decidedly encouraging projection — one basically on par with left fielder Josh Hamilton‘s, for example, at considerably fewer dollars per win. Perhaps somewhat surprisingly — even to Eric Stamets himself — shortstop Eric Stamets is projected to approach major-league average (or its equivalent in the minors), despite having recorded zero plate appearances above High-A. Much of that is due to his defensive projection, which benefits from +7 defensive runs beyond the already lofty positional adjustment for shortstops.

Angels Depth

Watch for Garrett Richards early struggles, it may provide an opening for Skaggs to fit nicely. Also Freese is a nice addition, his steady defense and reliable RBI bat in the middle of the line up will reduce pressures on Pujols and Hamilton.


Here are composites of 2013 batting results, 

Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Mike Trout R 22 CF 714 119 179 35 9 29 95 43 7
Albert Pujols R 34 1B 538 68 133 28 0 24 81 5 1
Howie Kendrick R 30 2B 579 65 150 27 4 13 65 11 5
Erick Aybar B 30 SS 607 74 155 32 6 8 55 19 6
Josh Hamilton L 33 RF 591 70 138 27 4 22 79 5 1
Kole Calhoun L 26 CF 542 64 124 23 5 15 66 10 4
Chris Iannetta R 31 C 352 34 64 12 0 10 36 2 2
David Freese R 31 3B 484 46 107 20 1 11 55 2 2
Hank Conger B 26 C 329 31 73 15 1 8 32 0 1
Jett Bandy R 24 C 400 37 83 22 1 6 37 1 1
Eric Stamets R 22 SS 498 49 112 19 1 3 35 10 4
Raul Ibanez L 42 DH 424 47 94 18 2 20 59 1 0
Tommy Field R 27 SS 498 48 97 19 3 9 41 6 2
Taylor Lindsey L 22 2B 598 62 138 23 4 12 52 4 5
Shawn O’Malley B 26 SS 383 41 78 9 4 2 23 15 5
Grant Green R 26 2B 631 67 148 30 3 11 61 6 5
Luis Jimenez R 26 3B 496 53 116 26 2 9 53 11 5
Collin Cowgill R 28 LF 448 47 96 18 3 8 42 11 3
Alex Yarbrough B 22 2B 523 51 126 21 4 6 47 9 3
Andrew Romine B 28 SS 501 49 105 13 3 3 35 14 6
Luis Rodriguez B 34 2B 386 38 84 17 1 6 40 2 4
Luis Martinez R 29 C 282 23 59 13 1 1 21 1 1
Jimmy Swift R 26 SS 434 36 89 17 2 5 33 5 3
Chris Nelson R 28 3B 448 41 99 18 4 9 49 4 2
J.B. Shuck L 27 LF 497 57 117 17 4 1 36 10 6
Zach Borenstein L 23 LF 441 49 97 18 2 14 50 6 6
Cyle Hankerd R 29 LF 210 23 43 8 1 6 23 1 1
Kaleb Cowart B 22 3B 600 55 122 23 3 9 50 11 6
Luke Carlin B 33 C 267 26 49 7 0 3 20 2 1
John Hester R 30 C 296 30 56 10 1 6 23 1 2
Matt Long L 27 RF 572 64 118 23 6 9 53 17 6
Scott Cousins L 29 CF 262 27 51 7 2 4 21 6 2
Brad Hawpe L 35 RF 187 17 34 6 0 4 16 1 1
Lou Montanez R 32 LF 246 22 53 9 1 3 22 2 3
C.J. Cron R 24 1B 536 52 121 26 1 13 63 4 4
Efren Navarro L 28 1B 592 59 132 28 2 6 53 5 3
Trent Oeltjen L 31 RF 403 41 75 18 3 8 37 12 6
Bill Hall R 34 2B 242 23 42 8 0 7 22 2 1
Rusty Ryal R 31 1B 336 28 65 11 1 3 23 1 1

2014 - Year of the Tiger












Cobb slides cleats up.



Each of the four positions within Detroit’s opening-day infield this coming season will very likely be occupied by a different player than on opening day in 2013. Part of the reason for that is because of how Miguel Cabrera returns to first base, a role to which his defensive abilities are more well suited. Another part of the reason is owing to the departures both of Prince Fielder (via trade) and Omar infante (via free agency) this off season. Despite the changes, the probable infield contingent for 2014 (as depicted in the depth-chart image below) ought to rival, in terms of wins, any of those belonging to the last three iterations of the Detroit Tigers, each of which has qualified for the playoffs.



There are few, if any, clubs which could have dealt a four-win pitcher this off season, made basically no other alterations to its starting rotation, and still appeared likely to enter the 2014 season with a rotation full only of league-average starters or better. It appears as though Detroit is such a club, however. This isn’t to suggest, of course, that the trade of Doug Fister wasn’t curious in its way. It does suggest, though, that Detroit was working from a position of strength in this regard.
There is likely something to be learned about human behavior from Detroit’s relationship with Jose Valverde over the last year-plus. The club signed the gentleman reliever to a minor-league contract at the beginning of April, promoted him to the majors after just 3.0 innings of work at High-A Lakeland, and then re-installed him as closer before the beginning of May — this after Valverde demonstrated all manner of warning sign in 2012. None of this immediately concerns the Tigers bullpen in 2014 — unless Detroit acquires Valverde again, of course. Which, if they do that, he’ll pitch at replacement level.

Bench/Prospects

The Tigers aren’t presently teeming with what anyone would call a “surplus” of young talent. Nick Castellanos is decidedly the most impressive prospect in the system, and he’ll very likely be starting the season with the parent club. After Castellanos, there’s less in the way of impact talent, however. Catcher Bryan Holyday is rookie-eligible and looks promising as a backup catcher. Shortstop Eugenio Suarez is also not entirely without merit — but also unlikely to produce anything much in the majors in 2014.





Are the Tigers finally ready, they think so,  and ere's what they should look like. Rotation looks strong, strong closer. Defense should be better. Are they getting old ? Hunter and Vic Martinez are older, but they appear battle tested, and will walk away with AL Central. Watch for young Smyly to move up rotation order.

Tigers Depth


Monday, February 3, 2014

Damn Yanks or Damned Yanks

Them Yanks

If you think they would just sit there and go moo all winter waiting for green grass to grow under their feet, well forget that.

These are still for the most part your fathers Yankees, they added 35 year Carlos Beltran, they added 30 year old Brian McCann to catch re signed 38 year old Hideki Kuroda.

Jeter is back, and he is older, Big Tex is back at 1st base, and he is older and more fragile.  The Yanks lost Robinson Cano, and if you believe that does not hurt the Yanks, then your are smoking wacky tobacco.

The Yanks infield reads like an Abbott & Costello comedy routine of who's on first, doesn't it folks. They spent money, so what is knew, they got thee big fish, Tanaka, and that will help. But....Sabathia , Tanaka and prayer.
No more Mo ...and that will be different. First time in many a year.


Where will the team finish...I could do the same evaluation, like the O's and Red Sox, the batting averages, the ERA projections.







Yankees Depth Chart

Just to satisfy those that"just wanna know", here you are. ( see above )

No Arod controversy since he is suspended for one year, but expect the tabloids to have many side stories as Alex decides to tell his side through the press.

The team has outfield, give them that at least, but that infield of Brian Roberts, Derek Jeter, Kelly Johnson and Teixiera is creaky and I guarantee won't hold up this season.



57 years ago this came out, wish I had a copy, but the Bronx Bombers were on top of the world, now they sit on top on the most money spent.

Who is their best player ?

Is it a 24 year old Japanese pitcher ?

Is it a centre fielder stolen from their hated Red Sox rivals ?

Time has caught up with this team, they just refuse to look at their own drivers license. If they were milk, we would have poured them down the drain.  But this organization has lasted a long time, and will re invent themselves, again.

It is their nature and their destiny to be the New York Yankees.

Finding your groove zone and oh them 2013 World Series champs

Find your grove zone

At times, batters once find their groove zone wonder if they will ever lose it, when will they re locate it if they ever lose it. Hit it to left field, right field, hitting is instinctive, and instincts are the best tools a hitter can have.

Batters
In Stephen Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Napoli (re - signed ), and Saltalamacchia, Boston has lost to free agency a foursome that accounted for over 2100 plate appearances and 16 wins in the club’s championship 2013 campaign. A difficult thing, is what that would appear to be. One notes, however, that a team never loses a departed player’s performance from the previous season, but from the one ahead. Napoli and Saltalamacchia, for example, are unlikely to match their plus-.350 BABIP figures from 2013. discounts their likely 2014 value accordingly.
One notes also that Boston isn’t entirely ill-equipped to deal with those departures. Two of the organization’s more promising young players, Boegarts and Bradley appear to be reasonable — and very cost-effective — alternatives to Drew and Ellsbury. A.J.Pierzynski, meanwhile — whose signing was announced as this actual paragraph was being written — will likely provide as much in the way of wins as Saltalamacchia would have, with less of an investment. Some combination of Mike Carp and  David Nava ought to approximate Napoli’s two-win projection at first base. All told, the Red Sox are probably at a deficit of something like two wins.
This, of course, ignores how Boston might choose to utilize the payroll freed up by the aforementioned departures. That same foursome was paid about $30 million collectively in 2013. With a well-established starting rotation, Boston is in a position to focus its resources on upgrades among its field players. Pierzynski is one step in that direction. One supposes that an upgrade at first base/left field could be another.

Pitchers
It’s difficult to tell whether a year is a very long or very short unit of measure. Relative to the wild expanse of the universe, of course, each year is like a finger snap. For anyone reasonably well acquainted with John Lackey,, however, it assuredly seems much longer. The right-hander entered 2013 having not pitched at all the previous season — and having been a source of considerable angst among Bostonians when he had pitched before that. Over the course of this past year, however, he became the next-most dependable starter after Jon Lester on Boston’s staff. His 2013 strikeout projection, : 5.53 K/9. His projection for 2014: 7.54 K/9. Striking out two more batters per nine innings is of some benefit to a pitcher’s success.
While there’s likely to be considerable turnover among Boston’s field players, the pitching staff will enter 2014 relatively unchanged, it would appear. Ryan Dempster and Felix Doubrant are both candidates for the fifth spot in the rotation. Other than that, however, the rotation is pretty clear. Boston’s top two relievers in 2013,Uehara and Tazawa, are also returning.

Bench/Prospects
As noted above — and despite the fact that they’ve recorded only about 150 major-league plate appearances between them — both Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley appear to be important pieces for Boston entering 2014. Nor does that appear to represent the entirety of the Sox’ minor-league talent likely capable of producing something of note at the major leagues. Very promising infielders Garin Cecchini and Mookie Betts are regarded  as something better than replacement level — as is each member of the catching triumvirate of Daniel Butler, Ryan Lavarnway. Among pitchers there’s perhaps less in the way of ready talent, although Matt Barnes made his way to Triple-A by the end of the season and is reasonably well-acquitted , as well.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Red Sox, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Red Sox Depth