Kershaw Shoulda Drama

Shoulder inflammation.

All that for some shoulder inflammation.

Sirens were sounded late last week when news got around that Clayton Kershaw had been shut down after a "discouraging" bullpen session, but the news on Sunday was more encouraging when Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said soreness in his left shoulder was the cause of Kershaw's troubles. Kershaw reportedly responded well to the few days off and will play catch on Monday.
“It’s better now than later,” Roberts said. “So we have plenty of time to address this, reset, and see where it takes us. But we’re hopeful. ... Just talking with Clayton and the training staff, there’s no cause for concern.”

That doesn't mean that the southpaw is out of the woods yet, but the secrecy surrounding the ailment in the days immediately following the troubling bullpen session led some to fear he had a recurrence of the back issues that have plagued him in recent years, or some other more worrisome development. The left shoulder isn't an ideal place for an injury, but some inflammation -- possibly caused, according to Roberts, by trying to throw too hard in hopes of reclaiming some lost velocity -- is on the low end of the concern spectrum.

One thing of interest will be to see how the past week affects Kershaw's draft stock, which was already deflated after a 2018 season in which he posted a 2.73 ERA in 26 starts. Even if Kershaw still makes his Opening Day start as Roberts expects, the negative media piled on top of the already bruised perception could lower the 30-year-old's draft-day cost even more. His current NFBC ADP of 37 ranks him 13th among pitchers, behind teammate Walker Buehler, among others.

For their part, Roberts and Kershaw aren't among those panicking.

“He’s in a good place,” Roberts said. “He feels good. And I think that he understands that it’s a process and we’re all on the same page where we don’t want to rush it back. If we’re going to take a few days to take a step back, let’s take advantage of it.”

Kang Announces Presence in Third Base Race

Jung Ho Kang has missed plenty of time the past two years.

He started trying to make up for it Sunday.

The Pirates third baseman, who has been limited to three games since the end of the 2016 season due to off-field legal issues, blasted a pair of solo homers in his Grapefruit League debut Sunday. His first came off Marlins starter Trevor Richards in the second inning, and he hit his second off Hector Noesi in the fourth.

“I prepared well during the wintertime,” Kang said after the game. “That actually helped a lot to keep a good feeling and good shape and strength and everything.”

Clearly.

It's an uphill battle for Kang this spring, as the past two years have seen a lot change in Pittsburgh in his (mostly) absence. The trade of Gerrit Cole before the 2018 season brought third baseman Colin Moran to hold down the hot corner, and Ke'Bryan Hayes -- who also homered twice Sunday, including a walk-off grand slam -- has risen quickly through the ranks to be recognized as a top-100 prospect in the game.

Kang has always possessed serious offensive chops, though -- he hit 21 homers in 103 games in 2016 -- and a strong spring could force the Pirates' hand. If he does hit his way into regular playing time, Kang could become a mixed-league relevant corner infielder with his power.

Harper Sweepstakes Drawing To A Close?

The Bryce Harper-to-the-Phillies smoke is still just that, but there's been no shortage of said smoke in recent days.

Phillies owner John Middleton flew out to Las Vegas on Saturday to meet with Harper's team, and the negotiations dragged on into the night -- perhaps even including Middleton's plane leaving without him. (Or maybe not; #sources ran wild Saturday.) At one point, USA Today's Bob Nightengale tweeted there was "optimism" that a 10-year deal would be finalized "by Monday afternoon."

Other reports from MLB Network insider Jon Heyman suggested there were multiple teams still involved, though. The Giants are believed to be interested, and the Padres were floated as a possible suitor even in the wake of the Manny Machado signing.

Monday is now upon us, and with the calendar turning to March this week, it would seem we'll know something sooner than later. Then again, we've said that before.

Quick Hits: Luke Voit went 2-for-3 with a three-run home run and four RBI in Sunday's Grapefruit League win over the Rays. Voit knocked in Tyler Wade with an RBI single in the first inning before launching a three-run dinger in the fourth. For those who saw Voit as a member of the Yanks last summer this is nothing new, as he mashed 14 home runs with a .333/.405/.689 batting line in 39 regular season games following a July trade from the Cardinals. Whether that's an even remotely sustainable pace is a question on the minds of lots of forecasters and fantasy players this spring, but if given the chance, we're confident the 28-year-old can do some serious damage in Yankee Stadium again in 2019 ... Matt Chapman (thumb, shoulder) could make his Cactus League debut as soon as Tuesday. Chapman is being slow-played this spring following offseason thumb and shoulder surgeries, but he's coming along well and isn't far behind. Barring a setback, he'll be ready to roll by the time Opening Day comes around ... Brandon Nimmo (shoulder) is slated to make his Grapefruit League debut on Tuesday in the designated hitter spot. Nimmo is still a bit limited from a throwing perspective as he works his way back from some right shoulder soreness, but he's participating in all other activities without issue. It's unclear when he will be cleared to play the outfield in games, but it doesn't sound like it will be long ... Hernan Perez racked up seven RBI in the Brewers' Cactus League rout of the Rangers on Sunday. Perez slugged a three-run homer off Rangers left-hander Yohander Mendez in the top of the first inning and then laced a bases-clearing three-run double off right-hander Zach McAllister in the top of the third. Perez, 27, is poised to serve as a super-utilityman this season in Milwaukee and doesn't carry much draft-day appeal in that role, though an injury somewhere on the Brewers' depth chart could quickly change his fantasy outlook ... Max Kepler homered twice in a Grapefruit League loss to the Red Sox on Sunday. Kepler hit a pair of solo blasts in the game, the first off Sox starter Ryan Weber and then again in the second inning against someone named Dedgar Jimenez. Name value of the opposing pitchers aside, it's a good start to the spring for the 26-year-old Kepler, of whom big things are expected by many this year ... Madison Bumgarner was charged with six earned runs over one-plus innings in his Cactus League debut Sunday versus the Cubs. Bumgarner pitched a 1-2-3 first inning, but he gave up five hits and struck David Bote near the helmet with a pitch before getting lifted with no outs in the top of the second. It's far too early in the spring to freak out about stat lines, but Bumgarner is under the microscope in Giants camp as he enters his final year under team control. The 29-year-old ace is San Francisco's biggest trade chip ... Yadier Molina (knee) caught a bullpen session on Sunday. It's the first one he's caught this spring as he eases back into things following a cleanup surgery on his left knee in December. Molina isn't expected to catch in Grapefruit League games until mid-March but is fully expected to be ready to go by the time Opening Day rolls around ... The Red Sox are targeting March 6 for Dustin Pedroia's (knee) Grapefruit League debut. It's a very tentative date at this point. Pedroia has been eased into things this spring after he missed virtually all of last season following multiple setbacks with his surgically-repaired left knee. Obviously, the 35-year-old is a major health question mark at this point, but the Red Sox are hopeful that he will be ready to play second base on Opening Day.

Manny becomes a Padre

The wait is finally over. Manny Machado has found a landing spot.

As first reported by Jeff Passan of ESPN, the Padres have signed the 26-year-old superstar to a 10-year, $300 million contract (MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand had the financials first). There is an opt-out after the fifth year, when Machado will be 31. 

It’s the richest single free agent contract in the history of North American sports, though Bryce Harper will now aim to surpass it. Giancarlo Stanton signed a 13-year, $325 million deal with the Marlins back in November 2014, but that was a contract extension.

Machado also drew reported interest this winter from the White Sox, Phillies, and Yankees, but it seems the Padres simply out-bid the competition here. They also shelled out the biggest contract of the 2018 offseason, a seemingly-ill-advised eight-year, $144 million pact with first baseman Eric Hosmer.

San Diego is generally considered one of the best places to live in the United States and our hats got off to the Padres for stepping up in a winter that has seen most MLB teams tighten their purse strings, but the fantasy fallout here is mostly negative, at least for 2019. Petco Park has become a little more power-friendly than when it first opened -- portions of the wall were moved in five years ago and it ranked 16th among the 30 major league stadiums in home runs allowed last season -- but the environment still leans pitcher-friendly and Machado probably isn’t going to match the career-high-tying 37 home runs that he generated between the Orioles and Dodgers in 2018.

 He will probably also take a hit in a couple of other teammate-dependent counting stats as he joins a Padres team that finished 28th in both runs scored and team OPS (.677) in 2018.

But the Padres’ roster is improving -- they boast three of the top-30 position-player prospects in baseball in Francisco Mejia, Luis Urias, and Fernando Tatis Jr. -- and they could be a postseason contender as soon as 2020 if some of their better pitching prospects develop quickly into impactful major league starters. Machado figures to play third base primarily for the Friars, with Urias covering the shortstop position until Tatis Jr. is deemed ready.

The formerly low-payroll Padres are suddenly building a behemoth.

Francisco Mejia

From deep in the nest

For a team that lost 115 games, cleaned house in the front office and field staff, and plays in the toughest division in baseball, the Orioles' offseason was quiet from a player acquisition standpoint.
The prioritizing of front office and coaching hires meant that roster additions were scarce, with right-hander Nate Karns the only major league free agent and fewer than a dozen announced minor league free agents from outside the organization.

Their strategy from those signings and the waiver claims that supplemented the roster give a glimpse into what the Orioles are looking for. What the Orioles had to offer was something every player on the market is seeking: opportunity.

"That is pretty much it — a new front office, a new staff, a lot of new faces on the team itself, and it provides a lot of opportunity," non-roster right-hander Bo Schultz said. "But then also, it's something where you don't have to feel like you're fighting into a culture. It seems like the culture is turning around at the same time. Everyone is learning the same thing at the same time."

In an era where MLB teams are looking for players who have specific skills they can accentuate, that could be enough information to provide the start of a gem — as much as a non-roster reliever can turn into such. But it's something the Orioles are clearly focusing on. One potential free agent was told in the offseason that TrackMan was all they were going off of in filling out the rest of their roster, though more went into it from the Orioles' perspective than that.

No one who got signed focused much on that, though, and as the likes of Lucas and Schultz threw their first bullpens Thursday since camp officially began, the only thing on their mind was what's in front of them.

Fellow non-roster right-hander Josh Lucas said: "They just contacted my agent and said, 'Hey, is he willing to hear an offer?' I knew there was going to be a lot of competition this spring training, so I said, 'Yea, let's do it.' It's a chance to win a big-league spot. ...
"That's definitely the first thing you look at every offseason when you go into free agency. Where's the best opportunity for me to succeed? I like looking at cultures. Going from St. Louis, where there's such a good culture, there's a lot of that too."
Especially when someone who has tasted life in the major leagues hits the open market, getting back there by any means necessary is the goal. Both the former front-office structure under interim general manager Brian Graham, and the current one under executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias, have been able to provide that opportunity.
The team's first wave of offseason minor league free agents — not including those they re-signed in September to keep in the organization — was initiated by the front office under Graham, including infielders Zach Vincej and Chris Bostick, who are both in major league camp. The allure of opportunity existed then, too.

"It's kind of the name of the game — every place has its own kind of set of opportunities that may arise, depending on the player, depending on the situation of the team," Bostick said. "So, you kind of look to align yourself in whatever situation you think is best for you."
Once Elias and company took over, they began to fill out the pitching staff some, with a specific set of goals. Without much major league scouting infrastructure carried over, the organization relied on pitch data from MLB's Statcast system and TrackMan to provide targets on the open market.
Though Schultz pitched in the minors last year as he rehabbed from Tommy John elbow reconstruction surgery from 2017, he had above-average fastball spin (2,367 rpm against the league-average of 2,266) in his last go-around in the majors in 2016 with the Toronto Blue Jays, and has the kind of breaking ball that gets weak contact and whiffs down in the zone.
Lucas, who was with the Oakland Athletics last year, had a slider with spin rate (2,558 rpm) in the top quarter of the majors among pitchers who threw at least 100 last year, according to Statcast. Austin Brice, the right-hander who was claimed then lost on waivers, had a similar high spin rate on his curveball.

The Big O lands in Harlem

The Big O

The ambient pop of a catcher’s mitt greets you before you see the interior of the Lab. Inside the unmarked door on St. Nicholas Avenue in Harlem, past the canvas tarp blacking out the windows and around the ladder serving as a makeshift camera stand, awaits an 80-foot-long pitching mecca where the outside world quickly disappears.

The hurried passers-by might think this place amiss, but the former shoe store two blocks from the Apollo Theater and beneath a Chuck E. Cheese’s feels just right to the ballplayers who trek uptown to hone their craft.

On a Wednesday in January, that group included Adam Ottavino, the facility’s gatekeeper, host and a major league reliever for the past seven seasons; four minor league pitchers; and one Baruch College catcher. Ottavino’s father, John, an actor based in Brooklyn, is also there.

“These guys are just a bunch of big kids,” said the older Ottavino, gesturing to the men aged 22 to 33. “I come in and clean the place once a week. If they can’t find something, I usually know where it is.”

On this day, that meant finding a misplaced blue lacrosse ball that his son uses for warm-up exercises. On any other Wednesday, Adam Ottavino would be throwing off the portable pitching mound, but on the eve of the day his life would change, there was a bit too much at stake.

“Something good might be happening soon,” a coy Ottavino told the five fellow ballplayers who hope to follow in his footsteps. “I can’t get injured today.” 

 The next day, Jan. 17, Ottavino, a 33-year-old right-hander from Park Slope,

completed a three year $ 27 million contract with  the Yankees. 

At the Lab, Ottavino sat behind a laptop and a tripod, filming his friends with a small, blue 3,350-frame-per-second camera and giving advice between pitches. The cameras are part of the data-driven pursuit with which Ottavino has saved his career. Now, after a breakout 2018 season with the Colorado Rockies, he’s spreading the word as he prepares for spring training, which opens Thursday.

“You learn things in here, about preparation and practice, that you didn’t even expect to pick up,” said Alex Katz, a St. John’s alumnus now in the Chicago White Sox organization. When Katz finished throwing, one of the Lab’s most loyal regulars, a 30-year-old left-hander named Andres Caceres, took the mound. A Queens native and veteran of independent leagues, Caceres is trying to perfect a cutter with tons of late movement.

“Whatever it is, it’s filthy,” said Ottavino, suggesting Caceres put more pressure on his pointer finger.

Asked about his role as the veteran sage in a circle of peers still chasing their major league dreams, Ottavino was direct: He’s no one’s superior, nor has he cracked some magic code. Rather, he is still searching for ways to improve.

“I don’t ever want to be the guy who’s always telling people what they’re doing right or wrong,” Ottavino said. “But if I do have some insight, I try to be fair about sharing it and see if we can get each other better. I learn from these guys all the time.”

A die-hard Yankees fan, Ottavino was at David Wells’s perfect game in 1998 and attended the team’s Fanfest annually with his father. Ottavino played ball at the Youth Service League in Brooklyn and graduated from Berkeley Carroll School in Park Slope in 2003. Three years later, he was drafted by the St. Louis Cardinals in the first round out of Northeastern University.

He made his debut with the Cardinals in 2010 and was claimed off waivers by Colorado in 2012. After missing most of two seasons because of Tommy John surgery, Ottavino struggled mightily in 2017. He logged a 5.06 earned run average and 39 walks in 53 1/3 innings and was left off the playoff roster.

“I knew the next year was do or die for my career,” Ottavino said. “But that’s the stuff I really enjoy — attacking the root of the problem. It’s better that I hit rock bottom because I wasn’t holding on to anything I’d done before.”

A power pitcher with a dominant slider, Ottavino decided his command and consistency needed fixing. Having spent time at Driveline — a data driven performance training center in Washington State — he determined that videotaping every practice session would be his answer, rather than making adjustments based on “feel” or opinion. Fully committed to coaching himself, he bought two cameras — a Rapsodo to measure spin rate and a high-speed Edgertronic SC2 that compresses each pitch into a slow-motion replay. Then he worked to become more fluent in the data. 

The resulting knowledge, he said, helped establish a consistent foundation and led to increased confidence. The only problem? Ottavino had nowhere to do any of this. His off-season throwing partner, the Mets starter Steven Matz, had moved away, and daily trips to a facility on Long Island ate up too much time that could be spent with his wife and two toddlers.

In stepped his father-in-law, a developer with a vacant Harlem storefront for rent. After Ottavino, with his father’s help, spent two weeks laying turf, buying equipment and learning to use the cameras, the Lab was in session and the real fun began. 

“If he didn’t have this place,” John Ottavino said, “it might have been over for him.”

Ottavino was one of the best relievers in baseball last season with a 2.43 E.R.A. and a career-best 112 strikeouts to 36 walks in 77 2/3 innings. He held right-handed batters to a devastating .142 average and ranked 12th in the majors with 12.98 strikeouts per nine innings. He shut down a Chicago Cubs rally in the National League wild-card game last season, proving capable of getting postseason outs. Can he do it in the Bronx?

Ottavino said the time spent hidden in Harlem — “scheming in an evil lair,” he joked — had prepared him for the challenge.

“You want to show up to spring training with a secret weapon,” he said.

The topic of pitching at Yankee Stadium has often been discussed. In December, he boasted on a podcast that he “would strike Babe Ruth out every time” because players these days are so much better prepared physically.

“If I have a slow start, I’ll never hear the end of it,” he said.

The Lab, in its current state, will close for good this month. Ottavino, Katz, Caceres and the other honorary members will report to their respective clubs with new tricks to unveil, hoping to rescue or advance however much career they have left.

Ottavino, his wife and the children are moving to the suburbs, where he said he would find a suitable space in Westchester County for another lab. So long as it’s hidden, preferably in a dark basement. Or maybe a wooded cabin.

Lindor out

Oh how the mighty have fallen.

Lindor

If the Cleveland Indians didn’t think they had problems with their lineup before heading to spring training, they almost certainly do now. 
Friday’s news that All Star Francisco Lindor will miss seven to nine weeks and likely the beginning of the regular season while rehabbing a strained right calf muscle casts a pall on an already iffy lineup that was set to rely disproportionately on the 24-year-old shortstop’s production from the get-go.

Lindor was one of the most reliable leadoff hitters in the game over the last two seasons, leading baseball with 123 runs scored in 2018 and blasting home runs at a franchise record pace for his position.

With Lindor on the shelf, a lineup that was already set to have depth concerns beyond the No. 5 spot now has a gaping hole at the top. Below is a look at candidates on the Indians 40-man roster and spring invitees to take over the leadoff spot while Lindor is out.

Greg Allen

With only five career starts in the leadoff spot on his resume, Allen would be the player with the most to prove in order to earn a shot at Lindor’s leadoff spot. In 25 plate appearances in the leadoff role, Allen hit .304 with a double, four runs scored and a .708 OPS.

Jason Kipnis

No stranger to the leadoff spot for Terry Francona, Kipnis has started 220 games at the top of the Indians batting order. He’s a .274 lifetime hitter in the leadoff spot with a .779 OPS including 245 hits, 90 RBI and 139 runs scored. If experience is the determining factor, Kipnis is the strongest candidate.

Carlos Santana

Francona has experimented with Santana in the top spot rather frequently since 2016 because of the slugger’s ability to get on base consistently. His .845 OPS as a leadoff hitter in 132 lifetime games testifies to that. Santana would provide pop with 26 career home runs at the top of the order to go along with 95 walks.

Ryan Flaherty ?

Announced as a spring training invitee on Thursday, Flaherty’s chances of making the roster on opening day have increased with Lindor’s predicament. But Flaherty has just 12 career games batting in the leadoff spot under his belt and he’s not fared well at the plate in those chances, hitting just .167 with seven strikeouts in 18 plate appearances.

Max Moroff

A switch hitter acquired in the Erik Gonzalez trade, Moroff also lacks experience in leadoff situations, starting just six career games as a leadoff hitter. His .160 batting average and .521 OPS from the top spot in the order fail to impress as do his 13 strikeouts in 29 plate appearances.

Beyond the offensive impact of Lindor’s absence, The Tribe must account for the specter of his Gold Glove-caliber defense leaving a rather large hole in the middle of the diamond. Below are candidates from the 40-man roster and spring invitees to replace Lindor defensively at shortstop.

Jose Ramirez

If moving from third base to second base in each of the last two seasons didn’t bother Ramirez (and we’re still not 100 percent sure that’s the case), then a temporary shift back to his original position would be no big deal, right? Ramirez has logged 109 major league games at shortstop, most significantly in 2014 and 2015. He has a .970 fielding percentage with 12 errors in 399 chances. But his total zone total fielding runs are well below league average at the position.

Franky Lindor

The Fish haul in their Phil

The Marlins have spent the entire offseason trying to unload their best player but up until now no team was willing to meet their sky-high demands. The game's top-hitting catcher will move to a cozy new ballpark in Philadelphia and hit in the heart of a more productive lineup. For two years' control of Realmuto the Phillies are sending young catcher Jorge Alfaro, top pitching prospect Sixto Sanchez, low-level pitching prospect Will Stewart and a $250,000 international bonus pool slot to the Marlins. Realmuto was unhappy in Miami, mostly because they were in the midst of a complete tear down and rebuild cycle. Realmuto has been demanding a trade for the past two years and finally gets his wish.

Realmuto was the top-rated catcher in fantasy baseball last year as ranked by both the ESPN Player Rater and the Yahoo rating system. The move from Marlins Park to Citizens Bank Park can only do wonders for his offensive production. Fangraphs' home run park factors indicate that home runs are 21 percent more likely in Philly compared to Miami. Last year Realmuto batted .277/.340/.484 with 21 home runs and 74 RBI. Those home run and RBI totals were new career highs despite a career-low 125 games played -- and he has a great chance of besting those marks again in the upcoming season. For the record, Realmuto has a career .676 OPS at home and an .852 OPS on the road. Now he has a new home and his fantasy owners are dreaming in anticipation. One more reason that Realmuto is the best fantasy catcher is that he is one of the few catchers who can run -- he leads the majors among catchers with 31 stolen bases over the last four years (Yadier Molina is next with just 19 bags over that period). Realmuto should be the first catcher off the board on draft day in all formats.

Heading to the Marlins will be catcher Jorge Alfaro. Even though he is going to a less batter-friendly environment the trade could actually be a positive for his fantasy value, largely because he is likely to get a lot more at-bats with his new club. He received just 344 at-bats with the Phillies last year while batting .262/.324/.407 with 10 homers and 37 RBI. He has plenty of power and can knock the ball out of any ballpark. His problem is two-fold: a career 35.2 percent strikeout rate and a 4.3 percent walk rate. Pitchers are not going to challenge him with hittable pitches over the plate until he proves he can lay off the junk outside of the strike zone. Alfaro has a career .270 batting average, which is quite good -- but his .405 career BABIP will take a big tumble as the sample size grows. He is likely to settle in for the long term as a power hitter with a low batting average.

The centerpiece of the deal for the Marlins is 20-year-old right-hander Sixto Sanchez. He is widely considered one of the ten best pitching prospects in the game and was ranked as the number 27 overall prospect by MLB Pipeline last month. He spent last season at High Single-A Clearwater and registered a 2.51 ERA with 45 strikeouts in 46 2/3 innings across eight starts. He was shut down in June because of elbow inflammation and missed the rest of the season. At an even six-feet-tall he is a bit undersized for a traditional workhorse starting pitcher. He is a desirable asset in dynasty leagues but can be disregarded in redraft leagues this season. His major league debut is not likely to come until 2020 at the earliest. Sanchez immediately becomes the prize of the Marlins' farm system. The Marlins have one of the weakest farm systems in baseball despite their recent trades of Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna.

Left-handed starter Will Stewart will join Sanchez and Alfaro on the plane to Miami. The 21-year-old spent 2018 at Low Single-A Lakewood and registered an impressive 2.06 ERA with 90 strikeouts in 113 2/3 innings while making 20 starts. Considering he was a 20th-round pick in the 2015 draft he has vastly outperformed expectations. His fastball velocity is average at best. He is more of a sinker baller who induces a lot of groundball outs while keeping the ball in the yard. He surrendered just five longballs last year and recorded an elite 62.1 percent groundball rate. The true test will come when he reaches the upper minors.

Bryce Harper Has to Pick a New Team Eventually... Right?

Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports that the Giants recently met with Bryce Harper. Heyman further adds that "multiple new teams" have emerged for Harper in the last week or so, perhaps an indicator that his price has dropped with the start of spring training fast approaching. Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area hears that Giants CEO Larry Baer, manager Bruce Bochy, and new president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi were all present at the meeting with Harper. The Giants are in re-tooling mode and have previously stated they would not be making any big splashes in the free agent market this winter. Obviously a Harper signing would be the biggest possible splash. Adding Harper would jump-start their rebuild in one fell swoop. San Francisco would not be the ideal landing spot for Harper's fantasy value. Oracle Park is a pitcher-friendly stadium and perhaps the hardest park in the league in which to hit home runs. Harper has also met recently with the Padres. The Phillies are considered by some to be the favorite in the race for Harper, with the White Sox and Nationals also trying hard to sign him. Spring training is coming up fast. Which team is going to write out the huge check it will take to land Harper?

News From Around the League

** The Royals signed RHP Brad Boxberger to a one-year, $2.2 million contract. The 30-year-old saved 32 games for the Diamondbacks last season and struck out 71 over 53 1/3 innings, but he also blew eight saves and finished with a pedestrian 4.39 ERA. Boxberger is probably the favorite to close for the Royals, which would push Wily Peralta to a setup role. Boxberger routinely posts huge strikeout rates but issues too many walks and is prone to the gopherball as well -- he served up nine home runs in just 53 1/3 innings last year. The change in ballparks should help with that but he is likely to be one of the most volatile closers in baseball this year.

** The Rangers signed OF Hunter Pence to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training. Pence batted just .226/.258/.332 with four home runs and 24 RBI over 248 plate appearances last year with the Giants. He used to be a perennial early-round draft pick in fantasy leagues but we can barely see those days in the rear view mirror.

** Gerrit Cole's arbitration hearing with the Astros is scheduled for Monday. Cole requested a $13.5 million salary for 2019 and was offered $11.425 million from the Astros when arbitration figures were exchanged last month. The 28-year-old right-hander went 15-5 with a 2.88 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 276/64 K/BB ratio in 200 1/3 innings (32 starts) last season while earning $6.75 million. This is his final year of arbitration eligibility. Free agency looms next winter.

** Alex Bregman, who underwent surgery last month to remove loose bodies from his elbow, resumed hitting Wednesday. The surgery has an estimated six-week recovery time, so the young star is expected to be fully healthy for the start of the regular season. He broke out to the tune of a .286/.394/.532 slash line with 31 home runs, 103 RBI, 105 runs scored and 10 stolen bases last year for the Astros. The injury adds a small amount of uncertainty for those in leagues with early drafts. It would be wise to make sure he is playing in spring training games before investing too heavily in Bregman.

** According to Jon Heyman of MLB Network, the Blue Jays are among the teams showing interest in free agent reliever Sergio Romo. The veteran right-hander pitched to a 4.14 ERA and 75/20 K/BB ratio in 67 1/3 innings as a versatile bullpen arm for the Rays in 2018, earning 25 saves while also starting a handful of games. He would likely work in a setup role behind closer Ken Giles with the Jays if that is where he lands. We shall see what happens.

** Brewers signed RHP Josh Tomlin to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training. Tomlin spent most of last season in a mop-up role for the Indians after a rough start, ultimately posting a 6.14 ERA across 32 appearances. Tomlin is strictly an innings eater.

** Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports that the Nationals have re-signed Jeremy Hellickson to a one-year, $1.3 million contract. There are performance-based incentives in the deal that can push its total value to $4 million. Hellickson pitched well for the Nationals last year when healthy, but the peripheral numbers suggest he had some luck, and he doesn't strike out enough batters to hold significant mixed-league fantasy relevance. He had a 3.45 ERA in 19 starts last year, but fantasy owners won't forget about his 5.43 ERA in 30 starts the year before.

Quick Hits: Indians signed C Dioner Navarro to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training. Navarro spent the 2018 season in the independent Atlantic League, batting .268/.299/.437 with three home runs and 13 RBI in 78 plate appearances with the Long Island Ducks. ... Indians signed INF Ryan Flaherty to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training. Flaherty appeared in 81 games for the Braves last season and slashed just .217/.298/.292. ... Mets re-signed C Devin Mesoraco to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training. He batted .221/.303/.398 with 11 home runs and 33 RBI in 84 games last season between the Reds and Mets. ... Orioles signed RHP Nate Karns to a one-year, $800,000 contract. The 31-year-old right-hander sat out the entire 2018 season due to shoulder and elbow issues. ... Dodgers signed INF/OF Cody Asche to a minor league contract. Asche spent all of 2018 in the minors, batting .220/.304/.399 in 105 games between the Triple-A affiliates of the Mets and Yankees. ... Cubs signed RHP Carlos Ramirez to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training. He's pitched 25 major league innings over the past two years and owns a 2.88 ERA. ... Twins signed LHP Tim Collins to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training. He had a 4.37 ERA in 22 2/3 innings for the Nationals last year. ... Pirates signed RHP Tom Koehler to a minor league contract with a $1.25 million club option for 2020. He is recovering from shoulder surgery and will miss at least the first half of the upcoming season.

Next week , they all descend upon Florida and Arizona as pitchers and catchers are to report.

Can I say it now "Play Ball".

Real Muto

Tommy Pham

As we wait for literally anything to happen on the free agent market, arbitration cases are working themselves out between clubs and players. And while no teams seem willing to voluntarily lay out money for players' services, arbiters have no problem making sure the players are being paid what they're worth.

Two of the biggest wins in recent days have been in Tampa and Houston. Tommy Pham celebrated his win over the Rays

A former No. 1 overall draft pick also had his worth recognized, as Carlos Correa won his arbitration hearing against the Astros. Correa had filed for $5 million, and the Astros had filed for $4.25 million.

There remain eight arbitration hearings, but to this point three of the four rulings have come in favor of the players -- top-tier closer Blake Treinen got an even larger payday than Correa and Pham, winning his case to make $6.4 million in 2019. Treinen's $4.25 million raise from 2018 to 2019 is the highest one-year raise for a player in his second year of arbitration eligibility. That's not to mention the players who didn't go to arbitration, including Nolan Arenado, who settled with the Rockies for a record-high $26 million late last month.

Among the high-profile cases still to be settled are those of frontline starters Luis Severino, Aaron Nola and Gerrit Cole. Severino requested $5.25 million and was offered $4.4 million by the Yankees, Nola asked for $6.75 million and was offered $4.5 million by the Phillies and Cole requested $13.5 million and was offered $11.425 million by the Astros.

Getting  'Real'

It wouldn't be an offseason lowdown if there wasn't a J.T. Realmuto update.

Realmuto's exit is all but guaranteed, and the Marlins would prefer to have it done before pitchers and catchers report next week. Where he'll be reporting remains a mystery.

Tuesday brought two new interesting pieces of news on possible destinations. First, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported the Phillies had recently checked in on Realmuto, and later in the day Yahoo Sports' Tim Brown warned to "keep an eye on" the Philly club in the pursuit of the catcher. The Phils are poised to enter the season with Jorge Alfaro post-dish but have long been searching for another impact bat to add to their lineup.


In recent days and weeks, the Reds, Rays, Dodgers and Braves have all been tied to the 27-year-old as well. So, much like the courtship of free agents Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, Realmuto's club on Opening Day seems to be anybody's guess as we approach spring training.



One of the ways in which teams have skirted laying out guaranteed contracts to relatively pricey free agents is the minor league contract.

Minor league deals guarantee almost nothing, both in dollars and role on the team, but can return non-negligible value if a team hits on a player primed for a bounce-back year or a late-career resurgence. Recent successes of note include Mark Reynolds, who swatted 30 homers with 97 RBI in 2017 after earning a job in camp, and one of the few bright spots on the Giants last season, Derek Holland, who was given a rotation spot out of spring and proceeded to post a 3.57 ERA across 171 1/3 innings of work.

Though there will surely be come to come in the approaching weeks, recent days have brought two such signings of note -- the Marlins reeled in Curtis Granderson on a minors deal, and the Bucs did the same with Francisco Liriano.

The Granderson deal is interesting because of the numbers game; the Marlins just don't have that many major league outfielders on their 40-man roster. As such, the veteran Granderson, though turning 38 before the season, could easily earn an Opening Day roster spot after hitting 13 homers with a .782 OPS in 123 games last year.

The Liriano signing is more interesting for two reasons, not unrelated: not long ago he was a Pirate, making this a reunion; and as a Pirate he was terrific. This go-round the Bucs plan to try him as a reliever, so the ultimate ceiling isn't super high, but Liriano did hold southpaws to a .170/.255/.261 line last year and could emerge as a dangerous situational reliever for the Pittsburgh outfit.

Quick Hits: Cuban shortstop Yolbert Sanchez became eligible to sign with MLB teams Tuesday. It's unclear whether he'll sign with a team soon or wait until the new international signing period begins on July 2. The Orioles still have close to $6 million in international spending money and have shown heavy interest in Sanchez, who turns 22 in March. Per Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com, the Cuban shortstop is believed to be major-league ready with the glove right now and profiles to be an average to above-average runner ... Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports that Sergio Romo is close to a one-year deal with an unspecified team. We also don't know the dollar amount. The market for the 35-year-old Romo has been rather quiet this winter after he posted a 4.14 ERA with 25 saves and a 75/20 K/BB ratio over 67 1/3 innings with the Rays in 2018. He's still capable of being a useful late-inning arm ... Didi Gregorius (elbow) has been cleared to begin a throwing program. Gregorius is on the right track in his recovery from Tommy John surgery and should join the Yankees around the All-Star break, if not a little before. He'll mostly be limited to rehab work in camp this spring ... Indians acquired RHP Nick Wittgren from the Marlins for RHP Jordan Milbrath. It was no surprise that Wittgren drew interest after being designated for assignment last week. The 27-year-old posted a solid 2.94 ERA over 33 2/3 innings last season. He should slot right into Cleveland's bullpen for 2019 ... Niko Goodrum is the favorite to serve as the Tigers' primary second baseman in 2019. Goodrum made starts at six different positions last season, but he saw the majority of his playing time at second base and that's where he projects to be in 2019. However, he's still preparing to play multiple spots if needed. Goodrum, a non-roster invitee last spring, batted .245/.315/.432 with 16 homers and 12 steals over 131 games last season. The counting stats make him worth watching, but he's mostly a deeper league option in mixed fantasy formats.

Why hasn't Bryce Harper or Machado signed ?

In the days following the World Series, David Freese pondered his options for the coming spring. At 35, he felt rejuvenated after joining the Dodgers in August. He displayed his value with an excellent postseason, enough for the team to consider picking up his $6-million option for 2019.

The interest coincided with a pair of desires for Freese. He wanted to stay in Los Angeles. And he sought to avoid the demeaning, depleting process that free agency has become. He figured he would prefer retirement to waiting until March for a new deal. So he let the Dodgers cut his pay to $5 million, and sounded thrilled with the outcome.

“It was honestly great not to go into the market,” Freese said this past weekend at Dodgers Fan Fest.

A day after Freese re-signed, the process repeated on a grander scale. Clayton Kershaw avoided free agency by agreeing to a three-year, $93-million contract. Rather than use his potential departure as a cudgel, Kershaw leveraged his theoretical freedom into effectively what was a one-year extension. He preferred the comfort of the Dodgers over the uncertainty of the market. Hyun-Jin Ryu made a similar choice, opting for the team’s one-year, $17.9-million qualifying offer rather than seeking a larger, lengthier deal with other clubs.

Across the last three decades, as Major League Baseball emerged from the late-1980s scandal of collusion and began to compensate its workforce without manipulated prices, the players treated free agency as a panacea. It was the reward for the years spent riding minor-league buses down dusty roads. It was why they accepted three years of a league-mandated minimum salary, and three more potentially fighting with their employers in arbitration. Free agency was the goal.

If a player was fortunate enough to make it through that sluice with his health and skills intact, he could reap the reward of the open market.

Yet the winter of 2019 has reinforced the foreshadowing from last winter. Those days are gone. The compensation system for baseball players is not broken, but it has mutated in a way that has squeezed out those who had become comfortable with the old paradigm.

Two weeks shy of pitchers and catchers reporting for work this season, the list of available free agents extends beyond the high-profile duo of Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. Dallas Keuchel, two-time all-star and former Cy Young Award winner, remains unsigned. So does seven-time all-star closer Craig Kimbrel. Multiple other former all-stars are available.

More revealing is the brevity of contracts that have been given out. Only four players — Washington Nationals pitcher Patrick Corbin, , Boston Red Sox pitcher Nathan Eovaldi and Seattle Mariners pitcher Yusei Kikuchi — have netted contracts longer than three years. Fifteen teams have spent fewer than $25 million on free agents this winter.

Consider the case of former Dodgers catcher Yasmani Grandal. Heading into his age-30 season, he averaged 24 home runs and a .799 on-base plus slugging percentage during the previous three years. His production outpaced that of catcher Brian McCann, who inked a five-year, $85-million contract with the New York Yankees before the 2014 season at the same age after averaging 21 homers and a .770 OPS. Grandal settled with Milwaukee.

The era of the irrational eight- or nine-figure payday has ended, as executives have seen the folly of deals awarded to players such as Chicago Cubs outfielder Jason Heyward and Baltimore Orioles first baseman Chris Davis .

“Data is laying it out there on how guys play, how they show up later on in these huge deals,” Freese said. “And I guess it’s just not panning out. So teams are just not going to throw that out there — especially if there aren’t more than a team or two fighting for a certain player. Especially if you’re in your 30s.”

Freese understood the logic. But he still fretted over the implications.

“I don’t like it,” he said. “I don’t think it needs to be like that. We understand how much money is out there, and the question is: where is the fans’ money going?”

Both Harper and Machado are 26, but have still been caught in this storm. In recent years, the proliferation of teams tanking in the hopes of rebuilding has been replaced by a more subtle scourge. No longer does half the industry abdicate winning in an effort to replicate how the Chicago Cubs and the Houston Astros assembled their championship clubs. But a majority of the sport has embraced austerity, even the large-market clubs who once used financial might to lord over rivals.

The Yankees diverted their offseason resources to a horde of relievers and second baseman D.J. LeMahieu, rather than Harper and Machado. The Cubs preferred to bring back shortstop Addison Russell, who was suspended in October for violating the sport’s domestic-violence policy, instead of pursuing Machado. Needing to fill a hole in their outfield, the Astros opted for a two-year, $32-million contract with Michael Brantley, a good player who lacks the stratospheric upside of Harper.

The Dodgers have scant interest in Machado and tepid interest in Harper, but they’ve still spent more than most.

Who knows why neither have signed. Maybe it's an elaborate game of chicken.

Arenado Breaks the Bank

The Rockies and 3B Nolan Arenado avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $26 million contract. The two sides came to an amicable settlement after Arenado requested $30 million and the Rockies countered with $24 million. The $26 million deal is a new record for an arbitration-eligible player, shattering the mark set last year when Josh Donaldson snared $23 million from the Blue Jays in his last shot at arbitration. Arenado will be a free agent after the upcoming season unless the Rockies are able to convince him to sign an extension. Arenado's salary will be tied with Giancarlo Stanton for the tenth-highest in the majors this year. The 27-year-old third baseman batted .297/.374/.561 with 38 home runs and 110 RBI last year.

Ohtani to Start Season on the Shelf
Angels general manager Billy Eppler told reporters on Thursday that Shohei Ohtani will not be ready for Opening Day. Eppler also said that Ohtani has not yet taken any swings since undergoing Tommy John surgery on his throwing elbow in October. It is a foregone conclusion that he will not be able to pitch at all this season, but the hope is that he will be able to serve as the Angels' regular designated hitter. Today's news sets back his timetable quite a bit and makes him a very risky bet on draft day. He won the American League Rookie of the Year last season as the best two-way player in baseball since Babe Ruth. He batted .285/.361/.564 with 22 home runs, 61 RBI and 10 stolen bases in 367 plate appearances between pitching starts. So clearly, even as a one-way player he can still help lead fantasy teams to victory if he's healthy enough to see regular at-bats.

Snakes Find a Closer

The Diamondbacks signed RHP Greg Holland to a one-year, $3.5 million contract. The veteran closer is now the pre-season favorite to snare the ninth-inning job come Opening Day. Youngster Archie Bradley was atop the Diamondback's bullpen depth chart prior to Holland joining the team. Holland has 189 career saves, ranking him sixth among all active pitchers -- behind Craig Kimbrel (333 saves), Fernando Rodney (325), Kenley Jansen (268), Aroldis Chapman (236) and Joakim Soria (220). Holland was basically the baseball version of Jekyll and Hyde last year -- he had a 7.92 ERA in 32 games with the Cardinals in the first half and then rebounded with a 0.84 ERA in 24 games with the Nationals in the second half. He had an unlucky .379 BABIP with the Cardinals and a lucky .186 BABIP with the Nationals. The real Greg Holland is obviously in the middle. He has a career 2.83 ERA with a .296 BABIP and an 11.63 K/9 since making his debut with the Royals in 2010.


 Multiple outlets reported that the Astros have signed free agent left-hander Wade Miley to a one-year, $4.5 million contract. The deal is not official yet but there is so much smoke around this one that there has to be a fire. The Astros have three rotation slots locked down by Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Collin McHugh. Miley will take the fourth slot. He employed a smoke-and-mirrors approach to register a 5-2 record and 2.57 ERA in 16 starts for the Brewers last year despite his strikeout rate tumbling to a career-low 5.58 K/9. Fantasy owners should be skeptical that he can come anywhere close to repeating that minuscule ERA again. His ERA was 5.61 in 2017 and 5.37 in 2016. It would not be a surprise if the Astros were to sign another free agent starter in the next few weeks, perhaps even Dallas Keuchel, who remains unsigned after declining a one-year, $17.9 million qualifying offer from the Astros.

 Joe Frisaro of MLB.com reports that the J.T. Realmuto trade talks are in "advanced stages." Frisaro pegs the Padres, Reds, Dodgers, and Braves as all being "in the mix," with San Diego possibly emerging as the "frontrunner". The Reds made an aggressive push to acquire Realmuto earlier this week and reportedly wanted a window to negotiate a contract extension for Realmuto but were denied that permission. Last week the Reds were able to make signing Sonny Gray to a contract extension a make-or-break condition of their trade with the Yankees, but they couldn't pull it off with the Marlins this time around -- at least not yet. Realmuto batted .277/.340/.484 batting line with 21 home runs and 74 RBI over 125 games last season. He is considered the best fantasy catcher in the league at this time. The Marlins' asking price for Realmuto has been astronomical for years. Any team that acquires him is going to have to sell the farm to get him.

 The Twins signed LHP Martin Perez to a one-year, $4 million contract with a $7.5 million club option for 2020. He is expected to join the rotation despite putting up a 6.22 ERA and 52/36 K/BB ratio across 85 1/3 innings for the Rangers in 2018. He might be better utilized as a situational lefty reliever because of his massive career platoon splits. For his career, right-handed batters have posted an .815 OPS against him, while left-handed batters have recorded a .650 OPS against him. Over the past three seasons combined, Perez's 5.18 K/9 is the lowest mark in the major leagues (min. 400 IP).

 MLB.com's Jon Morosi writes that the possibility of a Corey Kluber trade is "diminishing by the day." Kluber has drawn trade interest from a range of clubs, including the Dodgers, Padres, Reds, and Brewers, but the Tribe's asking price for the 32-year-old ace remains understandably sky-high and we're now just two weeks away from the beginning of spring training. Look for Kluber to take the bump on Opening Day for the Tribe. He finished third in the American League Cy Young Award balloting last season after going 20-7 with a 2.89 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 222/34 K/BB ratio in 215 innings.

Trent Rosecrans reports that the Reds are in "serious" discussions with free agent reliever Zack Duke. The situational left-hander registered a 4.15 ERA with 51 strikeouts in 52 innings while seeing action in a whopping 72 games last year for the Twins and Mariners. He missed most of the 2017 season due to forearm surgery but was one of the better left-handed relievers in baseball for a numbers of years before that.



 There are at least four realistic teams pursuing Bryce Harper. He lists the Padres, Phillies, Nationals and White Sox. The Padres sent a high-level delegation to Harper's home in Las Vegas on Thursday to see if they could entice him to choose San Diego as his new workplace.

 Sources believe that the Braves are "lying in the weeds" to sign free agent reliever Craig Kimbrel. Heyman also notes that other teams interested include the Phillies, Nats, Red Sox, Twins and a mystery team. Kimbrel was seeking a six-year deal in the $90 million range early in the offseason but it is believed both the years and dollar amount have been dropping in recent weeks. Sooner or later the price will get low enough for a team to jump on it. The 30-year-old is coming off a season where he saved 42 games and posted a 2.74 ERA with a 96/31 K/BB ratio for the Red Sox.
 The Athletics are pursuing veteran catcher Matt Weiters. Weiters missed a big chunk of last season and batted just .238/.330/.374 with eight home runs and 30 RBI across 271 plate appearances for the Nationals.
The Twins are "looking to add a reliever" and free agent Ryan Madson is among the "considerations." Madson registered an ugly 5.47 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 52 2/3 innings of relief last season between the Nationals and Dodgers.

The Rockies are interested in re-signing free agent outfielder Carlos Gonzalez. The 33-year-old outfielder had some great seasons for the Rockies in his heyday but has settled into mediocrity the last couple of years. Last year he batted .276/.329/.467 with 16 home runs and 64 RBI in 132 games.

Quick Hits: Utility man Hernan Perez underwent surgery to remove the pisiform bone from his left wrist after the 2018 season. He is expected to be ready for the start of spring training... Rockies signed 1B Mark Reynolds to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training... Pirates signed RHP Brandon Maurer to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training. Mauer registered an awful 7.76 ERA over 37 appearances with the Royals in 2018... Andrew Cashner (knee) expects to carry a clean bill of health into spring training. Cashner posted a wretched 5.29 ERA and 99/65 K/BB ratio in 153 innings with Baltimore last year... Pirates signed OF J.B. Shuck to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training.

 Shuck posted a brutal .192/.255/.231 batting line with zero home runs and four RBI in 142 plate appearances last season with the Marlins.