I’ll be breaking down category sleepers at each
of the 5x5 roto categories. The first installment of the series was
batting average sleepers. This week, we’ll be looking at possible WHIP
sleepers. Over 10 weeks, I will be providing a list of sleepers for each
5x5 roto category (BA, HR, RBI, R, SB, W, ERA, WHIP, K, SV). Since the
hot stove league still has a long way to go this offseason, for the
next few weeks we will focus on players in categories that are less
based on opportunity and more based on skill. Other roto categories
that are more dependent on opportunity, supporting cast, and batting
order spot (R, RBI, SB) or team and manager (W, SV) will be discussed in
the latter half of the 10-week series.
Before reading any further, it’s important to note the definition of a
sleeper. In this case, it’s a player who will exceed draft day ADP AND
projections in a particular category. The players are broken down by
mixed league sleepers and single league sleepers.
Fantasy owners, especially those new to the game, often have a bias
toward ERA given that it’s the category most often quoted as we learn
the game. However, WHIP is just as important, with recent pitchers like
Bartolo Colon and
Josh Tomlin making a living on fantasy rosters for their WHIP contributions.
It’s simple enough to say that good control creates a WHIP asset for
fantasy owners, but the table below is proof. The following table shows
data from pitchers with at least 10 major league starts in the given
year, proving just how important control is to finding pitchers who will
help your WHIP.
BB/9
|
2017
|
2016
|
2015
|
2014
|
2013
|
| |
1.12
|
1.01
|
1.12
|
1.10
|
1.14
|
1.5-2
|
1.17
|
1.21
|
1.11
|
1.17
|
1.17
|
2-2.5
|
1.27
|
1.23
|
1.22
|
1.23
|
1.24
|
2.5-3
|
1.30
|
1.30
|
1.33
|
1.31
|
1.28
|
3-3.5
|
1.37
|
1.35
|
1.40
|
1.32
|
1.41
|
3.5-4
|
1.43
|
1.48
|
1.39
|
1.40
|
1.45
|
4+
|
1.56
|
1.57
|
1.49
|
1.52
|
1.47
|
Avg
|
1.37
|
1.34
|
1.30
|
1.28
|
1.32
|
Based on the yearly WHIP average at the bottom of the table, it’s
clear that finding pitchers capable of producing sub-2.5 BB/9 is key
when uncovering potential value for the category. With that fact in
mind, here’s a rundown of eight names to track in 2018 for fantasy
leagues of varying sizes.
Mixed League Sleepers
Jakob Junis, SP, Royals
It’s apparently rebuilding time in KC, and Junis is one of the
organization’s most intriguing young pitchers. He was one of the team’s
bright spots in 2017, posting a 4.30 ERA in 98.1 innings, including 16
starts. That followed a great start of the year at Triple-A Omaha in
which he posted a 2.92 ERA in 12 starts, with 86/15 K/BB in 71 innings.
Junis was at his best after the All-Star break with KC, going 7-1 with a
3.55 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 52/9 K/BB in 63.1 innings, showing elite
control.
With a fastball that averages only 91 mph, Junis leans heavily on his
slider, throwing it 31 percent of the time during his rookie debut.
Using his extreme flyball tendencies, he took full advantage of Kauffman
Stadium and the Royals strong defensive outfield with a 40 percent
flyball rate. Home runs were still a problem for Junis, particularly
early in the year, but he allowed only six long balls in 63.1 innings
after the break. For the purpose of his fantasy value, Junis’ control is
what makes him most intriguing, with a sub-1.0 BB/9 after the break and
2.1 BB/9 for his minor league career. Junis is far from dominant, but
could serve well as a back of the rotation starter if the control he
showed late last season keeps up.
Brent Honeywell, SP, Rays
The Rays have resisted the temptation to promote Honeywell to the
majors, and with their current pitching depth, he will be hard pressed
to break camp on the 25-man roster. Fortunately for Honeywell, the Rays
could be in for another rebuild after moving
Evan Longoria
to San Francisco. Honeywell is coming off a dominant season between
Double- and Triple-A, going 13-9 with a 3.49 ERA and 172/35 K/BB in
136.2 innings. Again, the former second-round pick showed exemplary
control with a 2.3 BB/9 for the year, and his 11.3 K/9 was the best of
his four-year professional career.
Honeywell mixes his mid-90’s fastball with a unique repertoire that
includes a screwball, and his career 1.08 WHIP and 2.0 BB/9 shows the
polish that he’s had at a young age. He will turn 23 at the end of
March, and should get a long look in spring training after making 24
starts at Triple-A Durham last season. At the time of this writing,
Tampa Bay has six starting candidates clearly ahead of Honeywell (
Chris Archer,
Blake Snell,
Jake Odorizzi,
Matt Andriese,
Jake Faria, Nate Eovaldi), not to mention minor leaguers
Ryan Yarbrough and
Jose De Leon,
so it will be difficult for Honeywell to make the rotation out of
spring training again this year. However, he will almost certainly be a
big part of the 2018 squad and a fantasy contributor later in the year.
Miles Mikolas, P, Cardinals
St. Louis added pitching depth by signing Mikolas to a two-year
contract earlier this month. The former Padre and Ranger has done well
for himself in Japan over the last three seasons, with a 2.18 ERA and
0.99 WHIP over 62 starts. His success directly correlates with his great
control, posting a 1.5 BB/9 for the Yomiuri Giants. That control isn’t
out of the ordinary for Mikolas, who posted a 1.8 BB/9 in six minor
league seasons.
It’s notable that Mikolas was rarely used as a starter in the States
until the Rangers added him in 2014. His struggle to miss bats was
exposed with a Rangers, posting a 6.0 K/9 in 10 starts. The reports
indicate that Mikolas’ slider has improved in Japan, resulting in nearly
one strikeout per inning last season. Whether that strikeout rate spike
can hold remains to be seen, but the Cardinals were convinced enough to
give him $15.5 million and hope that the terrific control can continue.
If nothing else, we can certainly see the upside in his WHIP.
Andrew Moore, SP, Mariners
Moore threw 59 innings for Seattle last season with mixed results. At
age 23, he went just 1-5 with a 5.34 ERA in his major league debut,
struggling to miss bats with a very mediocre 4.7 K/9 and awful 2.1 HR/9.
However, the rookie’s minor league control also held at the highest
level, with an elite 1.2 BB/9 and strong 1.15 WHIP. The former
second-round pick’s control was his calling card prior to his promotion,
with a 1.6 BB/9 in three minor league seasons, resulting in a 1.08
WHIP.
We can’t understate the fact that Moore’s inability to miss bats and
extreme flyball rate gives him big ERA downside, as we saw last season.
Moore’s 49 percent flyball rate ranked 15
th highest among
pitchers with at least 50 innings and could continue to pose a big
problem outside of Safeco Field. Still, Moore did start to come around
late in the year, posting a 3.48 ERA and 6.1 K/9 in 20.2 innings during
September, doing a better job of keeping the ball down after some minor
league adjustments. The upside is very limited without the ability to
miss bats, but Moore’s
Josh Tomlin-like peripherals could make him usable in mixed leagues.
Single League Sleepers
Paul Blackburn, SP, Athletics
Traded by Seattle straight up for
Danny Valencia
last offseason, Blackburn found pitching in the majors to be just as
easy as the minors. During his rookie debut, Blackburn posted a 3.22 ERA
and 1.26 WHIP in 10 starts. That continued his minor league trend, with
a career 3.21 ERA and 1.25 WHIP over six seasons. Despite the success,
Blackburn’s early ADP in NFBC is just better than 700 due to his
inability to miss bats (3.4 K/9).
Like A’s teammate
Kendall Graveman,
Blackburn gets by on strong command and an excellent groundball rate.
His 56 percent groundball rate last season is on par with what we’ve
seen from Blackburn in the minors. His .273 BABIP in the majors does
show a high degree of luck. In other words, it will be difficult for
Blackburn to survive with his currently atrocious strikeout rate. The
control will hopefully continue to improve and offset the batted ball
karma, after posting a 2.7 BB/9 for his minor league career and 2.5 BB/9
in his major league debut. Blackburn sits as a very cheap backend
starter for either ERA or WHIP in single leagues despite missing all of
September with a hand injury.
Tom Eshelman, SP, Phillies
A small part of Philadelphia’s return for
Ken Giles
from Houston two years ago, Eshelman could turn out to be its greatest
contributor for the Phillies. The former second-round pick had easily
his best season as a pro in 2017, going 13-3 with a 2.40 ERA and 0.97
WHIP in 23 starts over 150 innings between Double- and Triple-A. While
he had a solid 2.1 BB/9 between High-A and Double-A in 2016, he took his
control to another level last season with a 1.1 BB/9. The pro
performance is on par with what Eshelman did as an amateur at Cal State
Fullerton, walking a total of 18 batters in 376.1 innings with a
sub-2.00 ERA in all three of his college seasons.
There’s nothing about Eshelman’s stuff that demonstrates he’s more
than a fifth starter, but it’s also rare to see pitchers with control as
good as Eshelman. After 18 starts at Triple-A, Eshelman has earned a
long look in spring training, at the very least. The ceiling is just a
fifth starter, especially considering Eshelman’s 6.1 K/9 last season,
but the control could make him a WHIP asset in NL-only leagues.
Ryan Merritt, SP, Indians
Merritt continues to befuddle major league hitters, yet he’s rarely
seen a prolonged opportunity in Cleveland. He made headlines in the 2016
ALCS by throwing 4.1 scoreless innings against the Blue Jays, but that
still wasn’t enough to earn him more than five major league appearances
for last year’s great Indians squad. He now has an ERA well below 2.00
in 36.1 major league innings, including the playoffs, but the Indians
are clearly nervous about exposing Merritt. He has a
Jason Vargas-like
fastball that averages just 87 mph, but Merritt has been effective
against minor league hitters during his career with a 3.33 ERA, 1.20
WHIP, and 1.5 BB/9.
The time to give Merritt a longer look should be coming soon. He’s
now made 47 starts at Triple-A over three seasons, with a 3.48 ERA and
1.7 BB/9 at that level. Not surprisingly, Merritt has struggled to miss
bats in the upper levels of the minors but is surely deserving if an
opportunity, if not in Cleveland than elsewhere.
Brent Suter, P, Brewers
Suter made a splash for the Brewers last season, though his NFBC ADP
above 500 shows that fantasy owners are far from convinced. He posted a
3.42 ERA in 81.2 innings between starting and relief, with a K/BB ratio
near 3.00, 2.4 BB/9, and 1.29 WHIP. Perhaps the skepticism is due to his
late major league arrival, making his debut in 2016 on the cusp of
turning 27. Or it could be his sub-par velocity, with a fastball that
averaged just 86 mph last season and was actually a significant
improvement over his 2016 debut. Even with the age and velocity red
flags, Suter has been consistently successful in the minors (3.42 ERA,
1.29 WHIP for his career) and thrown strikes with a 1.4 BB/9 in three
seasons at Triple-A.
The Harvard alum might not bring much velocity on his fastball, but
he certainly trusts it. He used the pitch about 70 percent of the time
with the Brewers last season, unlike a pitcher of similar ilk,
Jason Vargas,
who throws his fastball less than 50 percent of the time. One would
think major league hitters would eventually catch up to the slow
fastball, but that has yet to occur, as shown by his 2.42 ERA in
September. Judging by the early offseason signings of
Jhoulys Chacin and
Yovani Gallardo,
the Brewers don’t completely trust Suter for a rotation spot, but that
doesn’t mean he won’t get an opportunity, especially with
Jimmy Nelson (shoulder) set to miss the start of the year.
