February 3rd, 2014 and waiting for pitchers and catchers, and Orioles in 14'

The Plate

Find me anyone after the Super Bowl who is not actively checking when the boys report.

Most as of the end of the Super Bowl have started planning that winter trip to south Florida, or Arizona to follow the dream.

Right now the fields are covered, the grounds keepers have begun to cut and add more seed, and trim the foul lines.

The Field

Florida awaits the players so until then, we shall begin a short analysis of the teams in the American League.


Baltimore Orioles

Batters

Whether by design or not, Baltimore appears to be doing a bit of work with the stars-and-scrubs model of roster construction at the moment. Chris Davis, J.J. Hardy , Adam Jones,Manny Machado ,Matt Weiters : these are the names of five Oriole position players who are projected to record something better than three wins in 2014. Meanwhile, no other batter both (a) presently employed by Baltimore and also (b) expected to begin the season as a starter — no other such player is projected to produce anything better than even one win.
Provided the club is still looking to add talent, this actually isn’t an entirely unenviable state of affairs. Where it might be difficult to upgrade a roster full entirely of average players, there are very clear means by which to improve this roster. Like at DH, for example. Or second base, for other example. Or left field. Or even right field, where starter Nick Markakis has managed just three wins over the last three seasons.

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Manny Machado	R	21	3B	684	84	173	43	5	19	80	8	6
Matt Wieters	B	28	C	573	62	129	28	0	21	80	2	0
J.J. Hardy	R	31	SS	612	70	150	26	1	22	72	1	1
Adam Jones	R	28	CF	662	88	172	32	2	28	92	13	5
Chris Davis	L	28	1B	612	83	145	27	1	41	107	3	3
Michael Ohlman	R	23	C	388	42	92	20	2	8	39	4	0
Jonathan Schoop	R	22	2B	471	55	107	19	1	15	51	3	4
Michael Morse	R	32	RF	427	52	100	19	0	20	57	0	1
Nate McLouth	L	32	LF	482	57	103	21	3	11	35	17	4
Ryan Flaherty	L	27	2B	391	39	84	16	2	13	47	3	2
Danny Valencia	R	29	3B	513	55	123	29	2	16	68	2	4
Nick Markakis	L	30	RF	639	72	159	29	2	12	62	5	2
Cord Phelps	B	27	2B	475	51	104	21	3	10	50	5	4
Jason Pridie	L	30	CF	368	36	80	13	2	10	35	6	2
Lew Ford	R	37	CF	198	22	45	12	1	7	24	2	1
Steve Clevenger	L	28	C	298	27	70	14	1	4	27	0	1
Luis Exposito	R	27	C	319	30	67	17	0	7	31	0	1
Jemile Weeks	B	27	2B	592	67	129	20	7	4	38	17	6
Chris Snyder	R	33	C	260	26	50	8	0	9	33	0	1
Steve Pearce	R	31	DH	223	23	47	10	0	7	27	2	1
Trayvon Robinson	B	26	CF	478	50	95	17	2	13	47	15	6
Brian Roberts	B	36	2B	214	21	48	9	1	4	25	3	1
Alexi Casilla	B	29	2B	243	30	54	12	2	1	21	13	2
Conor Jackson	R	32	RF	214	21	47	10	0	4	19	2	1
Henry Urrutia	L	27	RF	428	45	114	17	2	9	41	1	1
Nolan Reimold	R	30	DH	257	29	54	8	1	10	28	3	1
Taylor Teagarden	R	30	C	143	11	25	4	0	4	14	0	0
Wilson Betemit	B	32	3B	253	26	56	12	1	7	27	1	1
Glynn Davis	R	22	CF	496	43	106	16	2	1	28	22	12
Chris Dickerson	L	32	DH	282	32	55	12	1	6	23	10	2
Francisco Peguero	R	26	RF	454	51	111	15	4	7	47	8	3
Brandon Wood	R	29	SS	313	27	61	12	1	6	28	1	0
Christian Walker	R	23	1B	486	48	122	23	0	9	45	3	4
Chih-Hsien Chiang	L	26	RF	531	50	121	29	2	10	52	2	2
Brenden Webb	L	24	RF	452	39	72	15	2	8	33	9	6

Pitchers
Conveniently for the narrative created by the author above, the Baltimore starting rotation is constructed in almost the exact opposite way as its field players. Where there’s a considerable gap in talent between the best and worst of the latter, the former is at least — composed of pitchers likely to produce similar outcomes (if by different means). Here, from best to worst, are the projected ERA minuses (“ERA-s,” plural?) of the pitchers most likely to begin the season in the O’s rotation: 99, 100, 100, 103, 104. That, in the event that the reader is unacquainted with arithmetic, is only a five-point difference between starter No. 1 and No. 5. Not a bad thing, that, but indicative of a club lacking in high-end starters.
Insofar as it won’t feature Jim Johnson as closer, the Baltimore relief corps will have changed entering 2014. Insofar as Johnson-clone Ryan Webb— signed for two years and $4.5 million after being non-tendered by Miami — insofar as Webb will pitch for Baltimore, the relief corps will actually remain largely unchanged. Generally average, is what that would appear to mean.

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Chris Tillman	R	26	32	32	187.0	167	66	27	176	92	86
Wei-Yin Chen	L	28	27	27	160.0	129	46	21	161	79	74
Bud Norris	R	29	30	29	173.3	158	64	22	172	89	83
Miguel Gonzalez	R	30	29	24	150.7	117	49	20	147	75	70
Kevin Gausman	R	23	27	27	147.3	129	36	18	151	75	70
Mike Wright	R	24	25	25	137.0	93	36	17	148	73	68
Scott Feldman	R	31	26	22	128.7	93	38	18	132	68	64
Jason Hammel	R	31	25	22	132.7	100	48	18	138	73	68
Darren O’Day	R	31	66	0	59.3	62	15	7	51	24	22
Dylan Bundy	R	21	13	13	78.0	59	33	10	81	43	40
Zach Britton	L	26	26	25	133.3	93	61	17	145	78	73
Eduardo Rodriguez	L	21	23	23	120.3	76	49	15	132	71	66
Brian Matusz	L	27	69	0	59.0	58	21	6	54	26	24
Tommy Hunter	R	27	70	0	81.0	69	17	12	79	39	36
Francisco Rodriguez	R	32	62	0	58.7	61	23	7	53	27	25
Troy Patton	L	28	51	0	58.7	47	16	7	58	28	26
T.J. McFarland	L	25	31	14	109.7	69	45	13	122	65	61
Ryan Webb	R	28	64	0	69.0	46	24	7	71	34	32
Kelvin De La Cruz	L	25	53	0	68.3	63	37	7	64	34	32
Zech Zinicola	R	29	36	0	45.7	35	16	5	47	24	22
Tim Bascom	R	29	25	13	88.3	55	46	10	96	55	51
Oliver Drake	R	27	32	0	42.7	34	18	5	42	22	21
Tsuyoshi Wada	L	33	17	17	93.3	70	41	16	103	60	56
Edgmer Escalona	R	27	47	0	57.3	48	20	9	57	31	29
Eddie Gamboa	R	29	24	18	103.7	61	43	15	117	66	62
Brad Brach	R	28	71	0	74.0	71	31	12	73	41	38
Tim Berry	L	23	26	25	132.3	76	50	19	155	86	80
Daniel Schlereth	L	28	24	0	24.0	22	18	3	23	15	14
Jon Rauch	R	35	41	0	36.3	28	12	7	39	22	21
Steve Johnson	R	26	27	18	100.3	84	57	17	105	66	62
Nick Additon	L	26	22	20	112.7	81	49	21	124	75	70
Devin Jones	R	23	26	19	117.3	75	43	21	136	78	73
Daniel McCutchen	R	31	39	3	61.7	41	25	10	69	40	37
Brock Huntzinger	R	25	41	7	78.3	55	38	13	87	51	48
Mike Belfiore	L	25	39	0	70.3	58	36	12	75	45	42
Chris Jones	L	25	41	0	68.0	41	40	8	76	44	41
Jake Pettit	L	27	24	23	124.3	70	46	23	148	88	82
Tim Alderson	R	25	39	4	80.0	56	33	16	91	56	52
Tyler Wilson	R	24	35	25	152.7	96	59	29	178	108	101
Zach Clark	R	30	24	22	116.7	50	71	17	141	87	81
Josh Stinson	R	26	38	21	128.3	67	79	20	148	93	87
Mark Hendrickson	L	40	31	0	51.3	23	21	11	64	41	38

***

Baltimore's season comes down to their pitching staff and the prospects coming through the system.

Bench/Prospects
One will note the author’s careful wording in the Batters section above regarding those field players who are projected  to produce less than a win in 2014. The wording is necessary, on account of there are actually two players in the organization, Michael Ohlman and Johnathan Schoop projected to approach league-average baseball value in 2014. The former is a catcher/corner-type; the latter, an infielder who’s split his minor-league career between second and short. Neither appears likely to begin the season, however, with a substantial role at the major-league level. Among pitchers, one finds celebrated prospect Dylan Bundy‘s name among those projected here. He’s expected to return at some point in the middle of the season following Tommy John surgery.