Hometown Bias

One of the cliches in baseball is that a team will go as far as its pitching takes it. If that's the case, the Blue Jays of 2010 are headed down an unknown path.

When they open the season April 5 against the Texas Rangers in Arlington, the Jays will sport a rotation that has three pitchers 25 or younger (Ricky Romero, Marc Rzepczynski and Brandon Morrow), a veteran who has spent the bulk of his career in the bullpen (Brian Tallet) and a No. 1 starter who missed 2009 because of elbow surgery (Shaun Marcum). And more youngsters are on the way.

Where that takes them no one knows, but the plan of new general manager Alex Anthopoulos is to get younger, get better and then fill in the blanks with a free agent or two.

The Jays say they aren't giving up on 2010 and have no intentions of finishing in the basement of the AL East. But to avoid that happening, their youthful rotation will have to overachieve. They could also get a boost later in the season with the expected return to health of right-handers Dustin McGowan and Jesse Litsch.

Offensively, the Jays should not score as many runs (798) or hit as many home runs (209) as they did in 2009 because of the changes at catcher (John Buck in, Rod Barajas out) shortstop (Alex Gonzalez in, Marco Scutaro out) and the outfield (Jose Bautista in, Alex Rios out). They will lean heavily on second baseman Aaron Hill and DH Adam Lind.

To stay offensively competitive, the Jays will require bounce-back seasons from center fielder Vernon Wells and first baseman Lyle Overbay as well as productivity from the likes of Bautista and third baseman Edwin Encarnacion.

The Jays figure to have a fluid roster during the season. Right-hander Kyle Drabek, the prize they received from the Phillies in the Roy Halladay trade, could make an appearance ahead of schedule. Ditto for Brett Wallace, who is being groomed to take over at first for Overbay.

One of the team's strengths is its bullpen, which will be manned by proven veterans. Given all the ifs in the rotation, those relievers need to live up to what's on the back of their baseball cards.

THE BLUE JAYS WILL CONTEND IF ...: The other four teams in the American League East get struck by meteors. Realistically, the Blue Jays have absolutely no chance of contending even in a best-case scenario. They are committed to rebuilding the franchise from the bottom up and will sport a youthful rotation that includes three pitchers 25 and younger in LHP Ricky Romero, RHP Brandon Morrow and LHP Marc Rzepczynski. At a later point in the season the rotation also could feature RHP Kyle Drabek, 22, the key player the Jays received in their trade of RHP Roy Halladay.

PRIMED FOR A BIG SEASON: CF Vernon Wells has been bogged down by nagging injuries the last three seasons — shoulder, hamstring or wrist problems — and his production has declined steadily. Wells, though, arrived this spring in great shape and, barring another injury, should bounce back from his 15-homer, 66-RBI season in 2009.

ON THE DECLINE: 1B Lyle Overbay has not had a productive season from a position that demands power and run production since his right hand was broken by a pitch in June 2007. The Jays are grooming INF Brett Wallace for the position and are expected to trade Overbay by the July 31 deadline if not sooner.

Of Note :

—3B Edwin Encarnacion, who had surgery on the hamate bone of his left wrist in the off season, played in his first spring training game March 25. Encarnacion said that he needs about 30 at-bats to be ready for opening day. If Encarnacion has any type of setback and opens the season on the disabled list, the position will be filled by Jose Bautista.

—RHP Brandon Morrow was scheduled to throw three innings March 29 after missing his last two starts because of soreness in his right shoulder. If all goes well, Morrow then will throw five innings against the Astros in Houston in an exhibition game April 3. That would set him up to make his first regular-season start for the Jays on April 8 in Arlington against the Texas Rangers.

—RHP Shaun Marcum was selected by manager Cito Gaston to be his opening-day starter. It will be the Jays' first opening-day starter not named Roy Halladay since RHP Chris Carpenter opened against Boston in 2002. Marcum missed all of 2009 because of Tommy John surgery. It will be his first start in the big leagues since September 2008. Marcum is 24-17 in parts of four major league seasons.

—SS Alex Gonzalez doesn't figure to give the Jays as much offense at the shortstop position as they got from Marco Scutaro, but they believe Gonzalez will supply more range at the position. "He can sure pick it. I've never seen a guy out there with so much confidence," manager Cito Gaston said.

—LHP Marc Rzepczynski said that one of his chief goals in 2010 is to pitch deeper into games. In 11 starts as a rookie in 2009, Rzepczynski's longest start was just 6 1/3 innings. Since turning pro in 2007, going deep into games has not been part of his resume. Not only has he never thrown a complete game as a pro, he said he has never pitched in the ninth inning.

BY THE NUMBERS: 7 — Consecutive years that RHP Roy Halladay was the Blue Jays' opening-day starter. With Halladay traded to the Phillies, that honor will fall to RHP Shaun Marcum.

QUOTE TO NOTE: "We are on a path and we're going to have growing pains." — CF Vernon Wells on the rebuilding Jays and what he expects in 2010.

ROSTER REPORT

The Blue Jays suffered just one unexpected setback this spring when RHP Brandon Morrow, obtained from the Seattle Mariners in a trade, missed two scheduled starts because of soreness in his right shoulder. His status as the No. 3 starter in the rotation remains up in the air.

ROTATION:

1. RHP Shaun Marcum

2. LHP Ricky Romero

3. RHP Brandon Morrow

4. LHP Marc Rzepczynski

5. LHP Brian Tallet

ROTATION ANALYSIS: The rotation is untested and untried — Marcum has the most major league victories in the quintet with all of 24. Both Romero and Rzepczynski are entering their second season, and Morrow has made just 15 starts over parts of three seasons.

The rotation will receive a boost and reshuffle if/when RHP Dustin McGowan and RHP Jesse Litsch are able to recover from their injuries. McGowan, who missed all of 2009 because of shoulder surgery, is suffering from arm fatigue and could be ready by the beginning of May. Litsch, who had Tommy John surgery last June, could be ready by the All-Star break.

If any of the projected starters falters or suffers an injury, they could be replaced by LHP Brett Cecil, who was 7-4, 5.30 in 17 starts with the Jays last year, or coveted prospect RHP Kyle Drabek, who will open the season at Class AA New Hampshire.

BULLPEN:

RHP Kevin Gregg (closer)

RHP Jason Frasor

LHP Scott Downs

LHP Jesse Carlson

RHP Casey Janssen

RHP Shawn Camp

LHP David Purcey or RHP Jeremy Accardo

BULLPEN ANALYSIS: Gregg, who was signed as a free agent, has 84 saves over the last three seasons and will open as the closer. If he falters, the Jays have no hesitation in moving either Frasor or Downs, their veteran setup artists, into the role. Frasor has been the subject of trade rumors and could go for a top prospect, the type of player GM Alex Anthopoulos covets.

With a youthful and inexperienced rotation, the bullpen is tried and true and is considered one of the team's strengths top to bottom.

Purcey, a former first-round pick in 2004, has been converted this spring from a starter and has been cut back to two pitches — fastball and slider — in an effort to achieve consistency.

LINEUP:

1. LF Jose Bautista

2. 2B Aaron Hill

3. DH Adam Lind

4. CF Vernon Wells

5. 3B Edwin Encarnacion

6. 1B Lyle Overbay

7. C John Buck

8. RF Travis Snider

9. SS Alex Gonzalez

LINEUP ANALYSIS: 3B Edwin Encarnacion missed most of spring training with a wrist injury, and if he isn't ready to start the season then Bautista will move to third, Lind will shift to left field and right-handed hitting Randy Ruiz will serve as the DH.

The Jays got breakout seasons in 2009 from both Hill (36 home runs, 108 RBI) and Lind (35, 114), and the bulk of the offense will once again rest on their shoulders.

The Jays don't have a legitimate lead off hitter, a spot that was so productive for them in 2009 when filled by SS Marco Scutaro, who signed with Boston as a free agent. Bautista, who has not shown in the past that he's a contact hitter, got the job by process of elimination.

The Jays would love to get a productive season out of 1B Lyle Overbay if for no other reason than to drive up his market value leading up to the July 31 trade deadline. They are grooming prospect Brett Wallace for the job. Overbay has not shown any ability to hit left-handers, so against the better ones manager Cito Gaston might opt for Ruiz to take over at first.

RESERVES:

C Jose Molina

INF John McDonald

INF/OF Michael McCoy or OF Jeremy Reed

RESERVES ANALYSIS: Manager Cito Gaston has never relied much on his bench, and that will be the case again in 2010.

Ruiz will see the bulk of the action as a right-handed hitting alternative to Lyle Overbay at first and also as Gaston's first choice as a pinch hitter off the bench.

Gathright came into camp as the player to beat for the backup outfield spot, just a step ahead of another veteran, Jeremy Reed. McCoy, though, has proved more versatile, has just as much speed and base-stealing ability as Gathright and can handle the bat.

ROOKIE WATCH: Because of injuries and faltering performances, the Jays had 12 players who qualified as a rookie make an appearance in 2009, including six who made their major league debuts. But when opening day arrives in 2010, they will not have one rookie on their 25-man roster. The best bets as potential rookies to make an appearance in 2010 will be INF Brett Wallace, who will open the season at Class AAA Las Vegas and is being groomed to take over at first from Lyle Overbay, and RHP Kyle Drabek, who will open the season at Class AA New Hampshire. C J.P. Arencibia (Las Vegas) is also not that far away.

MEDICAL WATCH:

—RHP Dustin McGowan (surgery, right labrum) has been out of action since July 31, 2008. He was making great strides at spring training before suffering arm fatigue in a minor league appearance. A best-case scenario is a return in May.

—RHP Jesse Litsch (Tommy John elbow surgery) has not pitched since last April and underwent the procedure in June. He is not expected back until around the All-Star Game.

—RHP Scott Richmond (right shoulder) arrived in camp with the soreness and is in the early stages of a throwing program. He has yet to throw off the mound. He is not expected to be ready until mid-June.

So, would predict a 66-67 win season but with a bright future.

On the horizon, Cecil, Brett Wallace, Travis D'Arnaud and Drabek. With Hill, Lind and Snider, the blocks to build with are in place.