Monday, April 24, 2017

The Big Picture




You should always have the big picture in mind when it comes to your season-long fantasy baseball leagues. Putting too much stock in a small sample size might cause you to make a decision that hurts you in the long run. That said, it doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be taking stock of what’s happened in the immediate past. It can be useful when it comes to weekly or especially daily lineup decisions, waiver wire considerations, tracking who might be coming into more playing time, etc.

The Rotoworld Player Rater is a handy tool that’s among the extensive offerings in Season Pass. Each week, I’ll be using the Player Rater to look at the hottest hitters, position by position, over the last week, and providing commentary.

The following data is based on 5x5 Roto scoring and covers games played from April 17-23.



Catcher

Rank
Player
Tm
Pos
HR
RBI
SB
AVG
R
VAL
#1
Austin Hedges
SD
C
3.87934
3.16113
-0.46435
0.42274
1.55075
8.55
#2
Jett Bandy
MLW
C
2.73551
0.88763
-0.46435
1.26628
0.45954
4.88
#3
Robinson Chirinos
TEX
C
2.73551
0.43292
-0.46435
0.57289
0.45954
3.74
#4
Miguel Montero
CHC
C
0.44786
-0.02178
-0.46435
2.53191
1.00515
3.50
#5
Willson Contreras
CHC
C
0.44786
1.34233
-0.46435
1.14577
1.00515
3.48
#6
Evan Gattis
HOU
C
0.44786
0.88763
-0.46435
0.48267
-0.08607
1.27
#7
Chris Iannetta
ARZ
C
0.44786
0.43292
-0.46435
0.36216
0.45954
1.24
#8
Russell Martin
TOR
C
0.44786
-0.47648
-0.46435
0.12115
1.55075
1.18
#9
Manny Pina
MLW
C
0.44786
-0.02178
-0.46435
0.72368
-0.08607
.60
#10
Yasmani Grandal
LA
C
0.44786
0.43292
-0.46435
0.24166
-0.08607
.57

Austin Hedges was a popular second catcher target for some this spring after he walloped the ball at Triple-A El Paso last season. After a 0-for-23 start, the Padres’ backstop has now hit .294 with five home runs and 10 RBI over his last 10 games. That’s earned him a move up in the batting order, as he’s hit fifth in each of his last two starts … It’s a little odd that two catchers in Jonathan Lucroy’s former home in Milwaukee are on this list, along with his backup in Texas, but Lucroy is nowhere to be found. Jett Bandy and Manny Pina have been in a virtual even timeshare with the Brewers so far, with Bandy receiving 11 starts to Pina’s nine. That’s obviously going to cap their fantasy potential, although one of them could separate themselves eventually. I’m hoping it’s Bandy, simply because his power should be good enough to make him a No. 2 fantasy catcher … Willson Contreras has made twice as many starts as Miguel Montero (12 to 6), but Montero will continue to play more than most backups. By the way, Kyle Schwarber hasn’t played any at catcher yet and I wouldn’t expect him to do so anytime soon … The Diamondbacks have made good on their promise to use all three catchers on their roster, giving Jeff Mathis 10 starts, Chris Iannetta seven starts and Chris Herrmann five starts (although two of them came in the outfield). As long as this continues – especially if it’s the offensively-challenged Mathis leading the way – there’s not going to be any fantasy value to be had here …

First Base

Rank
Player
Tm
Pos
HR
RBI
SB
AVG
R
VAL
#1
Freddie Freeman
ATL
1B
3.87934
1.79703
1.28930
2.47198
2.64197
12.08
#2
Anthony Rizzo
CHC
1B
2.73551
2.70643
3.04295
1.20635
2.09636
11.79
#3
Ryan Zimmerman
WAS
1B
2.73551
3.61583
-0.46435
2.71299
1.00515
9.61
#4
Joey Votto
CIN
1B
2.73551
3.16113
-0.46435
0.42274
2.09636
7.95
#5
Eric Thames
MLW
1B
1.59169
0.43292
-0.46435
1.47765
3.73318
6.77
#6
Paul Goldschmidt
ARZ
1B
0.44786
1.79703
1.28930
-0.21008
2.09636
5.42
#7
Yulieski Gurriel
HOU
1B
0.44786
0.88763
-0.46435
2.59249
1.00515
4.47
#8
Justin Bour
MIA
1B
1.59169
1.34233
-0.46435
0.66375
0.45954
3.59
#9
Justin Smoak
TOR
1B
1.59169
1.79703
-0.46435
0.69404
-0.08607
3.53
#10
John Hicks
DET
1B
0.44786
1.79703
-0.46435
1.35650
-0.08607
3.05
Freddie Freeman has batted .334/.437/.664 with 33 home runs across 554 plate appearances since June 1 of last season. His 1.101 OPS over that stretch is tops in baseball, leading Joey Votto by 37 points. SunTrust Park is looking like a pretty favorable environment for hitters and that should only amplify in the summer months. Freeman is going to have a monster season … Ryan Zimmerman has appeared on this list in two of the first three weeks, as he ranks second in the National League with a .387 average and is tied for fifth in both home runs (six) and RBI (16). As long as he stays healthy – and that’s certainly a fair question with him – I see no reason why he can’t continue to produce for fantasy owners in the middle of that great lineup … I love seeing Yulieski Gurriel get hot, as he’s now sporting a .457/.486/.657 batting line over his last 10 games. He’s hitting it on the ground a lot so far this season, so hopefully he can start lofting it more and homers come with it … Just missing from this list is Josh Bell, who has rebounded from a rough start with a .333/.417/.619 line and a couple dingers over his last eight contests. It’s fair to question how much power he’ll ultimately provide, but Bell continues to show an advanced approach at the plate with a 10.7 percent walk rate and 17.9 percent strikeout rate …

Second Base

Rank
Player
Tm
Pos
HR
RBI
SB
AVG
R
VAL
#1
Jose Altuve
HOU
2B
1.59169
1.34233
3.04295
1.35714
1.00515
8.34
#2
Robinson Cano
SEA
2B
1.59169
1.79703
-0.46435
1.98996
2.64197
7.56
#3
Kolten Wong
STL
2B
0.44786
1.34233
3.04295
1.05555
1.55075
7.44
#4
Jose Ramirez
CLE
2B
1.59169
0.88763
3.04295
0.06122
1.00515
6.59
#5
Starlin Castro
NYY
2B
1.59169
2.25173
-0.46435
1.95967
1.00515
6.34
#6
Cesar Hernandez
PHI
2B
0.44786
-0.02178
3.04295
1.23664
1.55075
6.26
#7
Brandon Phillips
ATL
2B
0.44786
0.43292
1.28930
1.74895
0.45954
4.38
#8
Joe Panik
SF
2B
0.44786
0.88763
1.28930
1.53758
-0.08607
4.08
#9
Ian Kinsler
DET
2B
0.44786
-0.47648
1.28930
-0.33058
1.55075
2.48
#10
Jonathan Schoop
BAL
2B
1.59169
0.88763
-0.46435
0.15144
-0.08607
2.08
Kolten Wong had an awful spring and didn’t do himself any favors within the Cardinals organization when he complained about possibly platooning. Things only got worse after a 4-for-27 start, but he’s since batted .333/.440/.667 with one homer, five RBI and two steals over the past week. Wong is probably going to continue batting at the bottom of the order, but there remains an intriguing power/speed skill set here … Things are going well so far for Brandon Phillips in his return to his home state, as he’s put up a .343/.378/.500 batting line with two homers and nine RBI in the early going. He’s also a perfect 5-for-5 in stolen base attempts, which is especially encouraging for a guy who turns 36 soon and who went just 14-for-22 in steals attempts last year. Also very noteworthy is that Phillips moved up to the No. 2 spot in the Braves’ batting order Sunday and he figures to stay there a while with Dansby Swanson struggling … It would be nice to see Jonathan Schoop move up to the No. 6 spot in the Orioles’ order instead of him hitting mostly eighth. Regardless, he’s well on his way to another nice power season …

Third Base

Rank
Player
Tm
Pos
HR
RBI
SB
AVG
R
VAL
#1
Travis Shaw
MLW
3B
2.73551
3.61583
1.28930
0.72433
1.00515
9.37
#2
Joey Gallo
TEX
3B
3.87934
1.34233
-0.46435
-0.08957
2.64197
7.31
#3
Nolan Arenado
COL
3B
1.59169
1.34233
1.28930
0.90476
1.55075
6.68
#4
Jake Lamb
ARZ
3B
1.59169
2.25173
-0.46435
1.11613
1.55075
6.05
#5
Eugenio Suarez
CIN
3B
1.59169
-0.02178
-0.46435
1.41707
1.55075
4.07
#6
Trevor Plouffe
OAK
3B
1.59169
1.34233
-0.46435
0.30223
1.00515
3.78
#7
Nick Castellanos
DET
3B
0.44786
1.34233
-0.46435
0.57353
1.55075
3.45
#8
Kris Bryant
CHC
3B
-0.69596
0.43292
1.28930
-0.05928
1.55075
2.52
#9
Jedd Gyorko
STL
3B
0.44786
-0.02178
-0.46435
1.38678
1.00515
2.35
#10
Evan Longoria
TB
3B
0.44786
1.79703
-0.46435
0.60382
-0.08607
2.30
All Travis Shaw does is get extra-base hits. Fourteen of the Brewers third baseman’s 18 base knocks on the season have gone for extra bases, which includes five home runs to go along with 18 RBI. That’s how you provide fantasy value in spite of a .243 average and .288 on-base percentage. Shaw’s OPS versus lefties is currently 582 points higher than it was last season, so, yeah, that’ll come down. I think he’ll continue to be a mixed league-worthy corner infielder, though. He’s a mediocre hitter but in a great situation … Joey Gallo leads the Rangers in home runs and runs and is second on the team in RBI and walks. Adrian Beltre (calf) doesn’t appear poised for a return anytime soon, but it’s hard to see the club benching Gallo when the future Hall of Famer does come back. Texas can stick Gallo in left field, or, probably more likely, put Shin-Soo Choo back in the outfield and let Gallo settle into the designated hitter spot … It’s nice to see all of that Nick Castellanos exit velocity start to turn into production. Castellanos’ strikeout rate it up, but he’s hitting the ball with authority and could be poised for a big breakout in his age-25 campaign … Jedd Gyorko is not only in line to see the bulk of the starts at third base with Jhonny Peralta (illness) out, he’s also batted cleanup in his last two games. Gyorko is a flawed hitter with a career .299 OBP, but he slugged 30 homers in 2016 and has multi-position eligibility. I think he keeps the third base job even after the struggling Peralta returns …

Shortstop

Rank
Player
Tm
Pos
HR
RBI
SB
AVG
R
VAL
#1
Taylor Motter
SEA
SS
2.73551
2.25173
1.28930
-0.17979
1.00515
7.10
#2
Trevor Story
COL
SS
2.73551
2.70643
-0.46435
0.54324
1.55075
7.07
#3
Tim Beckham
TB
SS
0.44786
0.88763
1.28930
1.35714
1.55075
5.53
#4
Andrelton Simmons
LAA
SS
1.59169
1.34233
1.28930
1.23664
-0.08607
5.37
#5
Addison Russell
CHC
SS
0.44786
1.34233
1.28930
0.39245
0.45954
3.93
#6
Adam Rosales
OAK
SS
1.59169
1.34233
-0.46435
0.42274
0.45954
3.35
#7
Corey Seager
LA
SS
0.44786
1.34233
-0.46435
1.05555
0.45954
2.84
#8
Elvis Andrus
TEX
SS
-0.69596
0.43292
3.04295
-0.57160
-0.63168
1.58
#9
Jorge Polanco
MIN
SS
-0.69596
1.34233
1.28930
-0.39116
-0.08607
1.46
#10
Aledmys Diaz
STL
SS
0.44786
-0.02178
1.28930
0.30223
-0.63168
1.39
Jean Segura (hamstring) is due back on Tuesday, but the Mariners now have to be contemplating how they can keep Taylor Motter’s bat in the lineup. The former Ray slugged a grand slam Sunday and is tops on the club with his five longballs. He’ll see at-bats in left field with Jarrod Dyson now in center after Leonys Martin was designated for assignment. The 27-year-old could do enough from a power/speed perspective to stay relevant in deep leagues … Adam Rosales is the A’s new shortstop following Marcus Semien’s (wrist) injury and he’s off to a nice start. He actually hit well in the second half last season, too, as he’s sporting an impressive .285/.357/.610 line since last year’s All-Star break. However, we’re still talking about a soon-to-be 34-year-old utility player with a career .669 OPS in over 1,500 plate appearances … Jorge Polanco doesn’t really stand out in one area, but he’s quietly put together a .281/.338/.422 batting line over his first 357 big league plate appearances. That’s not bad for a middle infielder who doesn’t turn 24 until July. Polanco has a little pop and a little speed and batted second for the Twins in his last start …

Outfield

Rank
Player
Tm
Pos
HR
RBI
SB
AVG
R
VAL
#1
Bryce Harper
WAS
OF
2.73551
2.25173
-0.46435
3.22530
4.27879
12.03
#2
Mookie Betts
BOS
OF
1.59169
3.16113
4.79659
1.23664
1.00515
11.79
#3
Mike Trout
LAA
OF
1.59169
0.88763
3.04295
2.77357
1.55075
9.85
#4
Giancarlo Stanton
MIA
OF
3.87934
2.25173
-0.46435
2.11046
1.55075
9.33
#5
Aaron Altherr
PHI
OF
0.44786
0.88763
3.04295
2.08018
2.64197
9.10
#6
A.J. Pollock
ARZ
OF
0.44786
-0.02178
3.04295
3.91870
1.55075
8.94
#7
Steven Souza
TB
OF
1.59169
3.16113
-0.46435
2.65306
1.55075
8.49
#8
Kevin Pillar
TOR
OF
1.59169
0.43292
3.04295
1.86945
1.00515
7.94
#9
Michael Brantley
CLE
OF
1.59169
1.34233
1.28930
1.56787
2.09636
7.89
#10
Ryan Braun
MLW
OF
1.59169
1.34233
1.28930
1.83917
1.55075
7.61

There are a lot of familiar names on this list, but the first one that stands out is Aaron Altherr.
 Altherr has been getting a chance to play regularly with Howie Kendrick (oblique) going down and he’s responded with a .429/.478/.714 batting line with a homer and two stolen bases over the past week. The 26-year-old strikes out too much and is never going to hit for average consistently, but he’s always possessed a blend of power and speed. Kendrick will be out another couple weeks, and even after that it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Altherr steal at-bats from the struggling Michael Saunders

 Steven Souza is ninth in baseball with his 1.037 OPS and is tied for the American League lead with his 17 RBI. Perhaps most encouraging is that he’s dropped his strikeout rate to a digestible 25.6 percent, which is a notable improvement for a guy who was at well over 30 percent in his first two years with the Rays. I still don’t expect Souza to hit for average, and he’s also dealt with his fair share of injuries. He’s got power and a dose of speed, though, and has been batting either leadoff or fifth for Tampa depending on whether there’s a righty or lefty on the mound … Kevin Pillar is one of the few Jays that’s healthy and hitting, and that’s resulted in a move up to the leadoff spot. The speedy outfielder has an 11-game hitting streak going and is batting .375/.405/.700 with three dingers and two steals since moving to the top of the order. Pillar isn’t going to continue to hit for average, but we could easily see a bounce-back to his 2015 levels of power and speed when he belted 12 homers and stole 25 bases … I’ll be the first to admit that I didn’t see this start from Michael Brantley coming. I doubt anyone really did following a season wrecked by multiple shoulder and biceps surgeries. The soon-to-be 30-year-old is hitting .382/.447/.706 with three homers and two steals over his last eight games, and there have been no hints of any health issues. It might be a tad early to say the former All-Star is totally back. He’s sat out four games already and we can’t say for sure how his shoulder will hold up once his workload is increased. But, it’s impossible not to be super encouraged … 

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