Zach Attack

A rival executive pondered the Diamondbacks’ roster situation earlier this month and recognized an odd juxtaposition: The decisions the team’s front office has to make, particularly when it comes to expensive right-hander Zack Greinke, would be far easier if the club hadn’t reached the postseason this year.

“You take it as the price of having had the year they had,” the executive said. “But it puts them in a much trickier spot.”

Obviously, he noted, any club would always prefer to have success, something the Diamondbacks and Greinke did this year, winning 93 games, plus the wild-card game, before falling in the division series.

And they did it with Greinke turning in an impressive, bounce-back year in his second season with the Diamondbacks. Greinke threw 202 1/3 innings and logged a 3.20 ERA. It might not have been the best season of his career, but it was impressive; he’d never had a year in which he both struck out so many and walked so few, and he did it at age 33, despite having lost a tick or two off his fastball.

What the executive was suggesting was this: If Greinke had managed to have the same season while the team around him won, say, 78 games, General Manager Mike Hazen’s course would be far easier to chart.

It would free up Hazen to make the sort of fiscally prudent move that no longer seems obvious. It would free him up to trade Greinke along with the four years and $126.5 million remaining on his $206.5 million contract.

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And, judging by what happened at baseball’s winter meetings in Orlando earlier this month, where at least three clubs, including the Texas Rangers, expressed interest in trading for Greinke, there appears to be a market for the veteran pitcher, despite his age and guaranteed dollars.

A year ago, finding a way to get out from under Greinke’s contract seemed not just wise but essential. But today, that sort of move feels harder to justify.

Greinke was perhaps the biggest reason the Diamondbacks owned one of the best rotations in the National League – and, thus, he arguably was the biggest reason the team managed such a big turnaround from last year’s 69-win performance.

During this past season, Hazen repeatedly talked about how he does not “take lightly” the chance to contend. As such, he didn’t let the club’s low expectations entering the year color the way he approached the trade deadline. Because his team had a chance to play in October, Hazen went for it, pulling off the mid-July deal for slugger J.D. Martinez.

It figures he views this situation similarly. Certainly, the safest move for the organization in the long term would be to shed Greinke’s contract. Not only would the Diamondbacks no longer be tying up huge money in the scary demographic of “aging pitcher,” they no longer would be spending 30 percent of their payroll on a single player.

It would create much-needed payroll flexibility. It would free them up to address needs on their roster in a variety of ways rather than having to find bargains around the edges of the free-agent market.

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But it would also be “taking lightly” the chance to contend, a point that doesn’t need to be driven home to Diamondbacks fans, who have watched enough teams in recent years enter spring training with high hopes only to see them crash and burn.

Trading Greinke would create a huge hole in the rotation, and while they might be able to get solid production from a prospect like Anthony Banda, what happens if the Diamondbacks run into an injury or two and suddenly don’t have enough depth? What happens if Zack Godley, Robbie Ray or Taijuan Walker take steps back while Greinke is off in Texas posting ace-caliber numbers?

Of course, none of this means a Greinke trade can’t make sense. Perhaps a deal exists in which the Diamondbacks don’t have to pay down too much of the contract while still getting good value in return, and they can then turn around and sign another starter or trade for one in a different deal.

Or perhaps the Diamondbacks are concerned about the way he finished his season, with an ERA near 4.00 over the final two months, plus two unimpressive postseason starts.

Maybe they’re worried about his health or how he’ll age, though Greinke has a lot going for him to allay concerns on that front. He’s not reliant on velocity. He has excellent command. He possesses good secondary pitches. He’s in excellent shape. Then again, the same things were said about Bronson Arroyo before he blew out – and the reality is, it’s possible this is the Diamondbacks’ last, best chance to get real value for Greinke.

If the opportunity to move the contract without severely crippling their odds in 2018 presents itself, the Diamondbacks would have to consider it. Having so many of their eggs in one pitcher’s basket is a tenuous way to operate.

But so is passing on a chance to contend now for a theoretical chance to contend later. The Diamondbacks were a good team this past year. They should have every chance to be one again next year. And, more than anything, they know that could change soon, with their Paul Goldschmidt window down to just two more years.

As the rival exec said, these sorts of decisions are the price for this year’s success. It’s a price the Diamondbacks are gladly paying.