Assesing the NL East in bullpen

Washington Nationals

Sean Doolittle
Ryan Madson
Brandon Kintzler
Koda Glover
Enny Romero
Shawn Kelley

The Nationals rebuilt their crumbling bullpen with a couple mid-season trades. Doolittle and Madson came as a packaged deal. The lefty-righty combo both performed superbly upon landing in the nation's capital. Doolittle is a unique reliever. He leans on the high heat over 87 percent of the time. The pitch induces whiffs and plenty of easy fly outs. He'll mix in a rare slider, changeup, or splitter to catch hitters off guard. Even with a predictable repertoire, he's able to frequently throw strikes (1.75 BB/9) without any ill effects. He has a history of shoulder injuries so you may want to roster a handcuff.

The handcuff to own is Madson. The former closer out-pitched Doolittle last season despite losing the closer job over the previous winter. Now entering his age 37 season, he combines a high whiff rate and few walks with a 55 percent ground ball rate. Madson has four plus offerings, making him a rare species of reliever. Don't be surprised if the righty squeezes ahead of Doolittle on the depth chart.

Kintzler is an effective ground ball specialist. Although he spent parts of two seasons closing for the Twins, he's best suited to a middle relief role. Once he joined the Nationals, he had some issues with his sinker movement. It's probably why he re-signed so cheaply with Washington this winter. Assuming he gets back on track, he'll be a valuable weapon. Even the lesser version of Kintzler was useful. His low strikeout rate hurts his value in most leagues.

The future of the Nationals bullpen is Glover. His stuff is so visibility delicious, and yet he posted a 5.12 ERA with only 7.91 K/9. I suspect he's working a little to predictably within the strike zone. One thing to watch is his strand rate – in a tiny sample, he's really struggled with runners on base. It could be a fluke or an early warning sign. Much of the damage against Glover occurred against his changeup and curve ball. Both are show-me offerings. His fastball is effective despite a low whiff rate while his slider is flat out unfair. He has some adjustments to make before returning to the late innings.

Romero is a weird left-handed reliever. He stymies right-handed hitters while fellow southpaws tee off. There's no obvious explanation for his reverse splits. Batters crushed his cutter last season. He should strongly consider retiring the pitch. Kelley, a slider specialist, had a disaster of a season. His fastball was destroyed to the tune of a .323 average and .785 slugging percentage. Still, he has a long track record of success. A healthy return could lead to holds with useful rate stats.

Southpaws Matt Grace and Sammy Solis figure to vie for a role – especially since Doolittle is the closer and Romero has those reverse platoon splits. Hard thrower Trevor Gott will eventually receive another chance to deliver on his upside. Don't hold your breath.

New York Mets

Jeurys Familia
A.J. Ramos
Anthony Swarzak
Paul Sewald
Jerry Blevins
Hansel Robles

For the moment, Familia has a loose grasp on the closer role. He missed big chunks of the 2017 season for a domestic violence suspension and a blood clot. When he pitched, he combined his typical velocity, strikeout rate, and bulky ground ball rate. Unfortunately, he also had some issues with walks (5.47 BB/9). The result was a 4.38 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. Not fantasy friendly. Since the rest of his stuff remains present, better command would presage a rebound to his sterling 2015 to 2016 production. He has a chance to massively outperform his ADP.

The Mets have two backup closers just in case Familia falters. Long time readers of the column probably know exactly what I have to say about Ramos. He features a below average quality fastball with a double-plus changeup and plus slider. He'll typically use those offerings as often as his fastball. He tinkered with some alternatives last year, but they performed horrifically. Even without a useful fastball, his offspeed stuff is good enough close. Over his career, he has 99 saves and a 2.88 ERA.

Swarzak was a surprise breakout for the White Sox and Brewers in his age 31 season. He shifted to throwing more sliders than fastballs in 2016. Apparently, it took him a year to adapt to his new pitch usage. Neither of Swarzak's pitches are particularly impressive. Instead, he relies on above average command to keep hitters swinging at offerings outside of the strike zone. He's valuable in holds leagues and could potentially snipe some saves.

Blevins is also useful for holds leagues. The lefty specialist typically produces a high strikeout rate, a sub-3.00 ERA, and appears in over 70 games. He'll only supply about 45 innings because he doesn't face many right-handed hitters. Sewald and Robles will probably open the season in the 'pen. Both are middle relievers. Robles has some small potential for a breakout. I think he needs to scrap the slider for a curve ball.

Rafael Montero is the odds-on favorite to fill a long reliever role. It's also possible the club will need to stash as many as two of Seth Lugo, Zack Wheeler, Robert Gsellman, and Steven Matz in the bullpen.

Philadelphia Phillies

Hector Neris
Pat Neshek
Tommy Hunter
Edubray Ramos
Adam Morgan
Luis Garcia

Over the second half of 2017, the Phillies had one of the top performing bullpens in baseball. Neris was fine during that string of success, but it was the other guys who really shined. Neris will enter 2018 as the presumed closer, although his grip on the job could be more tenuous than we realize. He occasionally loses command of his premium splitter which puts a lot of pressure on an unimpressive fastball. He's good enough to close, but the Phillies are reaching a point in their rebuild where “good enough” won't cut it. Even if he loses the ninth inning job, he'll still pitch the late innings.

Philadelphia turned to free agency to re-sign Pat Neshek and add Tommy Hunter. The pair should provide consistency to an otherwise talented but volatile unit. Neshek is widely considered to be one of the best command relievers in the game. Coupled with his funky delivery, he's a tough opponent. His managers usually try to hide him from left-handed hitters. He throws more sliders than fastballs. As for Hunter, he began using a cutter more aggressively last season, leading to a spike in his strikeout rate. He ought to consider abandoning his sinker in favor of more cutters.

Ramos scuffled early in 2017. After a demotion and subsequent return on August 3, he posted a 2.70 ERA (1.55 FIP) on the strength of 12.49 K/9 and 2.03 BB/9. Command was an issue before the demotion (6.39 BB/9). Assuming he can maintain the improved walk rate, he could challenge Neris for the closer role. He's another guy who throws more sliders than fastball. Opponents couldn't do anything with the pitch. It should be noted that his fastball is probably below average


Morgan, a lefty with a history of big platoon splits, had a similar experience for Ramos. Starting August 2, he turned a corner. He pitched to a 1.69 ERA (1.85 FIP) with 11.14 K/9 and 2.03 BB/9 over his final 26.2 innings. That even includes a three-run mess in his final outing. Not only did Morgan prefer his slider to the heater, he also used his changeup more often. The Phillies used Morgan as a multi-inning guy last year, but he could be converted into late-inning LOOGY duty.

Garcia is a right-handed hard throwing ground ball specialist who can absorb the middle innings in bulk. He combines his above average sinker with a plus slider and a newly minted above average changeup which he uses almost exclusively against left-handed hitters. This is a profile that can find it's way into the late innings. Given the quality stuff, it's a tad surprising he only managed 7.57 K/9 and 3.28 BB/9. Improved command could spark a breakout.

The Phillies have impressive depth. Francisco Rodriguez will make a comeback attempt as a non-roster invitee. Victor Arano posted a sub-2.00 FIP in a brief cup of tea. He's yet another guy who throws more sliders than fastballs. Southpaws Hoby Milner and Zac Curtis could see some work if anything happens to Morgan. Neither is fantasy relevant. Seranthony Dominguez is expected to take a big step forward now that he's been converted to relief. Other current starting pitchers could surge upon transitioning to the 'pen.

Miami Marlins

Brad Ziegler
Kyle Barraclough
Drew Steckenrider
Junichi Tazawa
Jarlin Garcia
Brian Ellington

For now, Ziegler remains the Marlins closer. The 38-year-old relies on a funky delivery and a relentless assault of the infield grass. Of pitchers with at least 600 innings, Ziegler's 66.1 percent ground ball rate in 643.2 career innings is the second highest recorded rate. Only Dennis Springer burned more worms. All those grounders ensures that Ziegler allows few home runs. For that reason, he's a steady if unspectacular reliever. A lack of strikeouts makes him a fringy fantasy asset – especially if/when he's traded into a setup role.

Savvy fantasy owners are already looking beyond Ziegler. It's only a matter of time before a contender discovers a need for a high floor veteran. Barraclough is probably the odds on favorite to jump into the ninth inning job. Last season, he lost one mph on his fastball along with a decline in his strikeout, swinging strike, and ground ball rates. His 3.00 ERA might have been very lucky (4.18 xFIP). Walks remain a huge issue (5.18 BB/9). He either needs to recover his 2016 stuff or cut down on the free passes. His slider is an elite offering. Unlike others fastball-slider specialists around the league, he can struggle to locate it for strikes – hence the high walk rate.

Steckenrider had a successful 34.2 inning debut as a 26-year-old. His fastball was a true weapon, inducing a slider-like whiff rate while allowing very little quality contact. Unfortunately, neither his slider nor changeup showed as even average offerings. Between the small sample of success and the lack of secondary pitches, I'm hesitant to jump on the bandwagon. That said, it wouldn't hurt to take a late round flier in deeper leagues. Since the Marlins don't figure to win many games, it may not make sense to chase holds in this bullpen. You just want to find the next closer.

Tazawa declined in a big way last season to the point where he could be gone from the roster by May. Brian Ellington has interesting 98 mph heat to go with terrible command. His is a name to file away for later. Nick Wittgren is an acceptable middle reliever. Jarlin Garcia and Justin Nicolino may provide some left-handed relief. Neither is impressive. If they opt to shift Sandy Alcantara to the bullpen – a long shot to happen in 2018 – he could quickly climb to a high leverage role.

Atlanta Braves

Arodys Vizcaino
Jose Ramirez
Sam Freeman
A.J. Minter
Chase Whitley

Beyond a whole lot of hard fastballs, there isn't much to see in the Braves bullpen. Vizcaino is the front-line guy. He features arguably the top performing curve ball in baseball. Unfortunately, despite sitting at 98 mph, his fastball is average at best. It can get hit around when his command isn't crisp – a not uncommon issue for Viz. The 27-year-old is also frequently injured. He's pitched just 152 career innings despite debuting in 2011. It's very likely the Braves will need late-innings reinforcements.

Ramirez is another hard thrower. He averaged 97 mph with his fastball. His slider and changeup both flashed plus, although inconsistency and iffy command have prevented him from becoming a true high leverage reliever. The ingredients are there for success if he ever improves the command.

Similarly, Freeman is a southpaw who sits 95 mph with a high ground ball rate. He had an issue with walks against right-handed batters (5.73 BB/9) but otherwise didn't show any platoon splits. Freeman features four quality offerings including a splitter he uses almost exclusively against opposite-handed hitters. His slider is largely reserved for lefty batters. There's some small breakout potential here, but his desire to end at bats quickly eats into the fantasy upside.

Guess what? Minter throws hard. He runs his fastball around 96 mph. He may also be the most likely to step forward as a future closer. Entering his age 24 season after racing through the minor leagues in just two years, Minter evenly mixes four seamers and sliders. Both pitches performed well in a 15 inning sample. Command was a problem at times in the minors so don't expect instant gratification.

The Braves will probably want Whitley around to serve as a long reliever. Don't mind him. A whole slew of other names could get involved in the bullpen. Mauricio Cabrera was briefly a closer in 2016 before it was discovered that he couldn't hit a target. He averaged 100 mph in the big leagues. Daniel Winkler shows potential during the rare occasions he's on the field. Jason Hursh has a healthy ground ball rate with the 95 mph heat the Braves have stockpiled in abundance. Rex Brothers and Jesse Biddle could be 'pen bound to serve as lefty specialists.