Saturday, March 31, 2018

Surprise ! Surprise !




As rosters were cut down to 25 players on Opening Day, MLB had its fair share of surprise roster spot winners that we didn’t expect when Spring Training started in mid-February. Here are some who have the potential to help fantasy owners this season, either immediately or later in the season.

-Ryan Flaherty was signed by the Braves just before Opening Day and was the starting third baseman to open the season while Johan Camargo recovers from an oblique strain. The career .639 OPS won’t be helping anyone in mixed leagues, but at-bats are at-bats in NL-only.

-Colby Rasmus and Pedro Alvarez both signed after camp opened and received plate appearances on Opening Day. Rasmus seemingly retired in the middle of last season when he left the Rays, but the O’s decided early on that Austin Hays wasn’t ready and brought in Rasmus, who hit .268-1-4 with an .801 OPS this spring. Alvarez and Baltimore just can’t seem to shake one another. The DH spent almost all of 2017 at Triple-A, with just a .737 OPS, but he made the 25-man roster this year despite a .585 OPS during Spring Training. We know Alvarez has power (154 career home runs in 3,194 plate appearances), but he’s likely to be sent down when Mark Trumbo returns in a week or two.

-Injuries to Anthony DeSclafani and Brandon Finnegan, as well as the Reds insistence on using Amir Garrett in the pen, has allowed Cody Reed to start the year as the fifth starter. His MLB showings over the last two years haven’t been pretty, but the lefty was one of the centerpieces of the Johnny Cueto trade in 2015 and remains a quality prospect. He has a solid 8.4 K/9 at Triple-A for his career (not to mention a 3.36 ERA) and showed improved control this spring after walking 61 batters in 106.1 innings at Triple-A last season. It’s too soon to take the plunge until Reed shows better control in regular season action, but don’t be shocked if he does emerge as a viable pitcher this season.

-Tyler Naquin is back, and he started in left field for Cleveland on Opening Day while Michael Brantley recovers from ankle surgery. It’s been an odd two years for the former first-round pick, who had a breakout year in 2016 hitting .296-14-43 in 365 plate appearances, but spent most of last year in the majors while playing through injuries. A strong line drive hitter, Naquin has been a consistent batting average contributor in the upper minors and into the majors (.289 batting average for his minor league career), and could be useful if you’re in a pinch until Brantley returns.




-There were rumors Ryan McMahon would be relegated back to the minors after Carlos Gonzalez was re-signed this spring, but he managed to make the Opening Day roster. McMahon didn’t start vs. lefty Patrick Corbin, but the left-handed hitter is expected to see consistent at-bats at first base against right-handers after hitting .319-2-9 this spring. A natural third baseman, McMahon hit a sweltering .355-20-88 with 11 steals in 519 plate appearances between Double- and Triple-A last season after a sub-par 2016 season. Still available in some shallow mixed leagues, McMahon has the ability to be an asset in most leagues, especially if you can be choosy about when to use him.

-Daniel Norris made the Tigers rotation because of Mike Fiers’ back injury, which is a sad sentence for an organization that’s supposedly rebuilding. His struggles in 2017 are well-documented, but the former top prospect is just one year removed from posting a 3.38 ERA with more than one strikeout per inning. He was terrible for the Tigers last season as his strikeout rate plummeted (7.6 K/9), but Norris looked okay this spring, finishing with a 3.86 ERA in 14 innings. While he’s probably too risky to use just yet, there should be ample opportunity this season for a pitcher who has shown plenty of past upside with a career 4.35 ERA in 237.2 innings.

-A weight has been lifted off Matt Kemp’s shoulders – and torso – and thighs. He reportedly lost 40 pounds this offseason, and made an extremely deep Dodgers roster despite many reports that the team would release him after taking him on in a salary dump. Kemp not only made the 25-man roster but started on Opening Day in left field after hitting .263-5-9 this spring. LA apparently decided that Kemp’s defense was good enough this spring after grading near the bottom of all outfielders over the last four seasons, and it’s also worth noting that the former 30/30 man failed to steal a base and hit into a league-high 25 double plays in only 115 games in 2017. There is limited margin for error with Joc Pederson on the bench and the talented Andrew Toles and Alex Verdugo at Triple-A, but Kemp could still be worth a flier if he was left on your mixed league wire, just one year removed from hitting 35 home runs and 108 RBI.

-Top prospect Lewis Brinson not only played his way onto the Marlins Opening Day roster but batted leadoff to open the season. There are certainly more impressive feats than making this roster, but it was a question mark entering the spring. Brinson did it after hitting .328-2-9 this spring. There will be growing pains for the top prospect acquired in the Christian Yelich trade, as we saw when he was caught stealing four times and fanned 17 times in 23 games in the exhibition season. However, he has loads of fantasy talent as a former 20/20 man in the minors, and has apparently convinced Don Mattingly that he’s ready.

-Tyler Austin had little chance of making the Yankees roster until Greg Bird went down with yet another injury. He started at first base and batted ninth on Opening Day after hitting four home runs this spring. Maybe he’s not Bird, but Austin has shown power in the minors, hitting .274-27-108 and an .828 OPS in 723 career plate appearances at Triple-A. Obviously, he will be useful in AL-only leagues during Bird’s absence, but there could also be sneaky value in deep mixed leagues with a long 10-game homestand at the end of April.

-There’s not much to say about Scott Kingery that hasn’t already been said. He sat on Opening Day, but Phils manager Gabe Kapler is expected to use him as a utilityman with plenty of starts all over the field. After hitting .304-26-65 with 29 steals in 132 games between Double- and Triple-A last season, Kingery tore up major league pitching this spring (.411-5-8 with four steals) and should be owned in all leagues.

-Pablo Sandoval was rejuvenated this spring and was surprisingly able to win a roster spot after hitting .302-4-17 in 60 plate appearances. Of course, he has almost no path for at-bats with Evan Longoria at third base and Brandon Belt healthy again at first, but stranger things have happened.

-Dan Vogelbach was one of the big stories of spring training after hitting .407-7-15 with 13/11 BB/K in 68 plate appearances. He convinced the Mariners to carry him on the roster despite Ryon Healy returning healthy from a hand injury. Unfortunately, Vogelbach has no defensive versatility, with doubts for many years that he could even stick at first base. Still, the offensive breakout shouldn’t be a shock if you’ve paid attention to his minor league stats, as Vogelbach is a career .291/.403/.480 hitter at Triple-A in more than 1,100 plate appearances. If something happens to Healy, Kyle Seager, or Nelson Cruz, all fantasy owners should be ready to pounce on Vogelbach.

-Jordan Hicks has made the jump from starter at High-A last season to major league bullpen after an excellent spring for the Cardinals. The transition to relief started late last season and into the Arizona Fall League this offseason, and Hicks looked terrific in his MLB debut yesterday, throwing almost all fastballs and averaging better than 100 mph. Could he be this year’s Chad Green?

Going Twice…


Note: Probable pitchers as of Friday, March 30, and are subject to change.


American League



Mike Clevinger: @LAA, KC
Charlie Morton: BAL, SD

Decent Plays

Jaime Garcia: CHW, @TEX
Jakob Junis: @DET, @CLE
Jordan Montgomery: TB, BAL
Andrew Triggs: TEX, @LAA
Cole Hamels: @OAK, TOR
Jacob Faria: @NYY, @BOS
Matt Boyd: KC, @CHW

At Your Own Risk

Dylan Bundy: @HOU, @NYY
Daniel Gossett: TEX, @LAA
Miguel Gonzalez: @TOR, DET
Chris Tillman: @HOU, @NYY


National League


Jameson Taillon: MIN, CIN

Decent Plays

Taijuan Walker: LAD, @STL
Tyler Chatwood: @CIN, @MIL
Miles Mikolas: @MIL, ARI
Tanner Roark: @ATL, NYM
Hyun Jin-Ryu: @ARI, @SF
Kyle Freeland: @SD, ATL
Zach Davies: STL, CHC
Brandon Woodruff: STL, CHC
Chad Bettis: @SD, ATL
Ben Lively: @NYM, MIA

At Your Own Risk

Clayton Richard: COL, @HOU
Matt Harvey: PHI, @WAS
Sean Newcomb: WAS, @COL
Bryan Mitchell: COL, @HOU



Streamer City


The following pitchers are generally available in over 50 percent of fantasy leagues and have favorable match-ups this week:

American League

Monday, April 2: Brian Johnson @ MIA
Almost any pitcher is worth a look this year vs. the Marlins offense, but Johnson actually has an interesting track record that includes a 4.33 ERA in five starts last season, 1.72 ERA in five Spring Training starts, and a career 3.18 ERA and 2.23 K/BB ratio in 50 career starts at Triple-A.

Thursday, April 5: Kyle Gibson vs. SEA
I believe in Gibson this year, I think. After a brief minor league stint around the trade deadline last year, Gibson concluded his 2017 season by going 6-2 with a 3.55 ERA and 59/15 K/BB in 63.1 innings. He carried that performance over to spring this year, with an identical ERA (3.55) and 9/1 K/BB in 12.2 innings. Gibson could be worth a shot against a Seattle offense that was in the middle of the pack vs. RHP last season.

Friday, April 6: Tyler Skaggs vs. OAK
Oakland partially addressed last year’s woes vs. lefties with the addition of Stephen Piscotty, but the team had a lot of ground to cover after posting a .704 OPS last season, sixth worst in baseball. Of course, Skaggs didn’t pitch great against the A’s in three starts last year.


National League

Tuesday, April 3: Kyle Freeland @ SD
The Padres lineup looks better with the additions of Eric Hosmer and Chase Headley, but that didn’t really address their issues vs. lefties, in which they had the worst OPS in the NL. Freeland showed increased velocity this spring, and could be viable outside of Coors Field.

Thursday, April 5: Tyler Anderson @ SD
Most of the same reasoning to stream Freeland at San Diego applies here with Anderson, another lefty.

Thursday, April 5: Vince Velasquez vs. MIA
The Miami rule applies here again. If Opening Day is any indication, new Phillies manager Gabe Kapler is going to have a quick hook this season, but Velasquez is healthy again and coming off a very good spring (2.51 ERA, 15/4 K/BB in 14.1 innings).

Total Games


American League

5: BOS, MIN, SEA, TB
6: CHW, CLE, DET, HOU, KC, LAA, NYY, TOR
7: BAL, OAK, TEX

National League

5: MIA, SF
6: ARI, ATL, CHC, CIN, LAD, NYM, PHI, PIT, STL, WAS
7: COL, MIL, SD


The Infirmary


Here’s some injuries to prominent players from the first week, and other players to watch for in the coming week. You can get a full listing of injured players at Rotoworld's Injury Page.

Greg Bird: Could return in June (ankle)
Paul Blackburn: Could return in late April (forearm)
Johan Camargo: Could return in mid-April (oblique)
Michael Conforto: Could return April 5 (shoulder)
Nathan Eovaldi: Out 6-8 weeks (elbow)
Tyler Flowers: Left Thursday’s game (oblique)
Yuli Gurriel: Placed on restricted list but could return next week (hand and suspension)
Andrew Heaney: Placed on DL (elbow)
Aaron Hicks: Placed on DL (intercostal muscle)
Raisel Iglesas: Placed on paternity leave list
Dinelson Lamet: Could return in May (elbow)
Mark Melancon: Will miss at least two weeks (forearm)
Adalberto Mondesi: Placed on DL (shoulder)
Pat Neshek: Was unavailable on Thursday (lat)
Salvador Perez: Out 4-6 weeks (knee)
J.T. Realmuto: Placed on DL (back)
Jeff Samardzija: Placed on DL (pectoral)
Mark Trumbo: Could return in mid-April (quad)
Mike Zunino: Scratched from Thursday’s game (oblique)

Well that's enough for now, my coffee is calling me. And so is my wife.

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