Greg Holland was ranked the very worst closer in the league. He’s outlasted several more highly rated relievers, moving steadily up the tiers. Last week, he was the last closer in the third tier, good for 17th best. His upward mobility went against my better judgment, but it can be hard to argue against positive results. Now it’s time to re-reassess Holland.
Over the last month, he’s posted a 6.75 ERA in eight innings with 4.50 K/9 and 7.88 BB/9. An unlikely .050 BABIP was necessary to avoid a complete disaster over the span. The worst came to pass on Tuesday night. After retiring the first two Dodgers he faced, Holland walked four consecutive batters, tying the game. He was lifted for southpaw T.J. McFarland who proceeded to dispense a walk off walk.
For our purposes, the implications of Holland’s meltdown are somewhat contrary. The Diamondbacks are probably trade deadline sellers. If he continues to struggle, Holland won’t be attractive to contenders. He’ll remain with Arizona – the only place he’s likely to continue earning saves. Of course, if he stays put, it means he’s blowing up his owners’ ERA and WHIP. Kind of a lose-lose situation, huh?
The Upper Elite (3)
Aroldis Chapman, New York YankeesKirby Yates, San Diego Padres
Josh Hader, Milwaukee Brewers
Hader was called upon for a potential two-inning save on Monday. At the time he was nursing an 11.1 inning hitless streak. He proceeded to allow a pair of runs. Jeremy Jeffress was summoned in the ninth inning for his first save of the season. There’s no cause for concern with Hader, he remains uniquely potent despite a modest homer problem.
The Lower Elite (8)
Roberto Osuna, Houston AstrosFelipe Vazquez, Pittsburgh Pirates
Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers
Will Smith, San Francisco Giants
Ken Giles, Toronto Blue Jays
Edwin Diaz, New York Mets
Brad Hand, Cleveland Indians
Sean Doolittle, Washington Nationals
Last Wednesday, Diaz delivered his second disasterpiece of the season, a two-home run, five-run blown save loss to the Phillies. This followed a Hector Neris blown save. Diaz now has a 4.64 ERA – hardly an elite figure. ERA estimators suggest he should have a sub-3.00 ERA which, when paired with 14.73 K/9, is still deserving of a spot among the elite.
The rest of this tier barely pitched over the last week. Doolittle was the only one with a busy week. He allowed a run in a non-save situation. He earned a save of Sunday and a win on Tuesday. Oddly, given his reputation for rarely walking hitters, he surrendered a free pass in each appearance.
To date, Giles has top five closer numbers despite a mere 12 saves. With a 1.24 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 15.83 K/9, his owners should be quite pleased. Three factors have me cautious about an overly aggressive promotion. He has a history of deep and painful slumps – typically one per season. His current performance is heavily slider reliant which could sour if he loses feel for the pitch – as he did for nearly all of 2018. Second, the Blue Jays are very likely to trade Giles who is arguably the top reliever on the market (Smith and possibly Yates or Vazquez being the other candidates). It’s not certain Giles would close with a new club. Third, he’s only recently recovered from a minor elbow injury.
Core Performers (8)
Hector Neris, Philadelphia PhilliesLiam Hendriks, Oakland Athletics
Luke Jackson, Atlanta Braves
Shane Greene, Detroit Tigers
Hansel Robles, Los Angeles Angels
Alex Colome, Chicago White Sox
Raisel Iglesias, Cincinnati Reds
Carlos Martinez, St. Louis Cardinals
Diaz’s ugly blown save (discussed in the Tier 2 write up) was proceeded by a poor outing by Neris. He rebounded on Tuesday by striking out the side. Iglesias’ struggles continued on Sunday. He managed to earn a save despite allowing three runs over two innings. He notched a win on Tuesday. Colome had one of the busiest weeks among closers, picking up a win and two saves in four innings.
Three relievers escaped the mess hall. Even though he was promoted a tier, Martinez was leapfrogged by Jackson and Hendriks based on usage. His only outing of the week was a 2.2 inning appearance against the Padres. As a former starter, the Cardinals may look to use him infrequently for longer outings.
To my eyes, it’s pretty likely Hendriks will retain the Oakland closer role even if Blake Treinen returns. Hendriks hasn’t allowed a run since June 5. In a particularly torrid streak since June 8, he’s posted 16.78 K/9, 0.73 BB/9, and only 10 base runners in 12.1 innings. Jackson isn’t as hot, but his skill set is perhaps more sustainable. As a ground ball pitcher with a hefty strikeout rate, he’s the most useful new closer to emerge this season. Now, he just needs to convince Atlanta to forgo buying a closer on the trade market.
Mess Hall (7)
Craig Kimbrel, Chicago CubsJose Alvarado, Emilio Pagan, Tampa Bay Rays
Taylor Rogers, Trevor May, Minnesota Twins
Wade Davis, Scott Oberg, Colorado Rockies
Greg Holland, Arizona Diamondbacks
Ian Kennedy, Kansas City Royals
Shawn Kelley, Texas Rangers
Kimbrel received a rude introduction to 2019. After a fairly tame debut, he was touched up for a pair of home runs in his second appearance. His fastball and curve are down about one mph from their usual velocity. He also has a history of command issues. There’s serious upward mobility for Kimbrel, but I’d first like to see a string of positive results.
Alvarado is back. He earned the save on Monday with Pagan notching a hold. As with the previous Alvarado-Castillo alliance, the pair will probably share save situations based on matchup.
Davis is at serious risk of losing his job. He now has an unsightly 5.76 ERA with 9.36 K/9 and 5.76 BB/9. I’m not convinced his command is quite so lost as his walk rate implies, hence his inclusion ahead of a handful of guys with better numbers. Coors Field sure doesn’t help. Now is a good time to stash Oberg - not that he's particularly talented.
Rogers is clawing closer and closer to a full claim on the Twins ninth inning job – just in time to be replaced with a trade acquisition. It’s all but certain Minnesota will put in offers for Smith and Giles. All that remains unknown is if they’ll win the bidding.
The Forgotten (4)
Brandon Workman, Boston Red SoxRoenis Elias, Austin Adams, Seattle Mariners
Mychal Givens, Baltimore Orioles
Sergio Romo, Miami Marlins
Elias snagged a loss on Saturday. While that’s not really a bad thing for a rebuilding a club, you have to figure they’ll want to experiment with Adams before too much longer. Elias is a viable placeholder, but Adams has posted mid-tier quality numbers through 23.2 innings including a luck neutral 2.66 ERA, 15.97 K/9, and 4.56 BB/9.
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Injured
Brandon Morrow, Chicago Cubs (elbow)Corey Knebel, Milwaukee Brewers (partial UCL tear – out for season)
Hunter Strickland, Seattle Mariners (lat)
Arodys Vizcaino, Seattle Mariners (shoulder inflammation – out for season)
David Robertson, Philadelphia Phillies (flexor strain)
Blake Treinen, Oakland Athletics (strained rotator cuff)
Diego Castillo, Tampa Bay Rays (shoulder impingement)
Jordan Hicks, St. Louis Cardinals (torn UCL, out for season)
Robertson and Morrow are nearing rehab assignments. Strickland recently threw a bullpen session and could be on the rehab trail before much longer. Treinen got tagged for three runs in a Triple-A game on Monday. Castillo is scheduled to re-join the Rays on July 12.
The Deposed
Cody Allen, Los Angeles AngelsJose Leclerc, Texas Rangers
A.J. Minter, Atlanta Braves
Anthony Swarzak, Atlanta Braves
Ryan Brasier, Boston Red Sox
Chris Martin, Texas Rangers
Steve Cishek, Chicago Cubs
Scott Oberg, Colorado Rockies
Matt Barnes, Boston Red Sox
Pedro Strop, Chicago Cubs
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