This will be an important offseason for the Blue Jays. After a third straight losing season, the team needs to make upgrades to their roster, with the most pressing need on the mound in the rotation, followed by first base and the outfield. While the Blue Jays saw some of their young players emerge in 2019 as likely core pieces, it’s now up to the front office to acquire additional talent to support them.
And following two fairly tame winters in terms of activity, this one should be a different story for the Blue Jays. So over the next few weeks, we’ll be identifying and assessing players around Major League Baseball — both free agents and potential trade targets — who we think might currently find their name on some of those infamous Blue Jays whiteboards, as the front office looks to improve the club heading into the 2020 season.
After putting together a respectable career over seven MLB seasons prior to 2019, Jake Odorizzi had a career year as he helped the Minnesota Twins win the 2019 American League Central title. Odorizzi was selected in the first-round (32nd overall) of the 2008 draft by the Milwaukee Brewers. In 2010, he was traded to the Kansas City Royals as a key player in the deal that brought back Zack Greinke. While a prospect, he impressed, ranking among Baseball America’s top 100 prospects in 2011. He debuted for the Royals in September 2012 but was traded again that offseason, this time to the Tampa Bay Rays in the controversial James Shields deal.
By 2014, when he was 24 years old, Odorizzi was in the Rays rotation. He was fine in his first full season, pitching to a 4.13 ERA over 168 innings. He fared better in his next two seasons, and over four years with Tampa, he posted a respectable 3.82 ERA and 1.215 WHIP over 698 innings. In February 2018, for the third time in his career, Odorizzi was traded in the offseason, this time going to the Minnesota Twins for minor-leaguer Jermaine Palacios.
As his year began with the Twins, Odorizzi was expected to eat innings as a mid-rotation arm. But as The Athletic’s Dan Hayes detailed in his piece from August, Odorizzi’s 4.49 ERA in 2018 was largely a result of some mechanical flaws. After an offseason working on his fitness and mechanics with trainer and coach Randy Sullivan, Odorizzi added velocity to his fastball leading to career-high strikeout numbers (10.1/9), an All-Star berth and a tidy 3.51 ERA.
Following the World Series, the Twins will have the opportunity to give the 29-year-old Odorizzi a one-year qualifying offer, worth $17.8 million. Should he decline it, he will be a free agent, albeit one with a compensatory draft pick assigned to him. But with so many teams seeking rotation reinforcements, Odorizzi should attract plenty of attention on the open market.
Odorizzi’s 2019 in review:
Randy Sullivan is part coach, part physical therapist and part strength and conditioning expert. In the past, he’s worked with fellow Twins pitcher Kyle Gibson as well as Justin Verlander. Odorizzi’s offseason work with Sullivan propelled him to a stellar start, going 9-0 over 10 starts from April 17-June 9, with a 1.07 ERA and 63 strikeouts to 13 walks in 59 innings. His strong first half earned him his first All-Star appearance.
He hit a rough patch mid-season, however, pitching to a 7.99 ERA over seven starts (32 2/3 innings) from June 15 to July 24, which included a particularly disastrous outing against the New York Yankees, where he allowed nine earned runs over four innings. During that stretch, opponents hit .316 against him. Later, Odorizzi told Dan Hayes he attributed the blip to “a lapse in not keeping up with the things that had got me to that point and letting it ride because I was going good.”
Eventually, he got back on track and finished the season strong, accumulating a 15-7 record, a 3.51 ERA and a career-high 178 strikeouts. He made his postseason debut in Game 3 of the ALDS. Despite limiting the Yankees to two runs over five innings, the Twins couldn’t muster the offence they needed and were soundly swept out of the playoffs.
Odorizzi’s final 2019 numbers: 15-7, 30 GS, 159 IP, 3.51 ERA, 10.1 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 131 ERA+, 3.36
“I felt strong health-wise. But the mechanics weren’t there (in 2018). The offseason was about finding those mechanics again. I knew what I needed to change, I just didn’t know how to change it…I knew I didn’t make the impression I wanted to make my first year in a new place. I wasn’t the pitcher I’ve viewed myself as over the years. There was only one way to go about it and it was to try something new to get back to how I view myself and how I think I should be throwing. Lo and behold, I found the recipe.” — Odorizzi, speaking to The Athletic about his turnaround in 2019.
How is Odorizzi trending?
An uptick in velocity proved pivotal for Odorizzi. In 2019, his four-seam fastball topped out at 95.8 mph and averaged 93, per Brooks Baseball. That was up nearly two miles per hour from 2018 when his four-seamer sat at 91.5 mph. The extra mileage was a product of his offseason regime, which saw him work on lower body strength to correct the movement of his lower half during his delivery. The increased velocity led to more strikeouts as he upped his strikeout rate to 27.1 percent, more than four percent higher than his career norm. His 10.1 strikeouts per nine were also a career-high. He was earning more swings and misses, too, with a career-best 12.7 percent swinging-strike rate. He also lowered his 2018 walk rate (9.9) by nearly two percent to 8.1, just slightly better than league average.
Odorizzi is primarily a flyball pitcher. Over the past three seasons, his flyball rate has been 46.9 percent, the highest among starters with at least 400 innings. But in 2019, it was down to 44.3 percent, while his ground ball rate rose to 35 percent. Allowing so many flyballs is like walking a tightrope, but in 2019, Odorizzi lowered his home-run rates, posting a career-best 0.91 HR per nine with an above-average home run to flyball ratio of 8.8 percent, per FanGraphs.
In 2019, Odorizzi remained relatively healthy, missing just 10 days in July with a blister. He has pitched at least 140 innings every season since 2014, but he’s never hit the 200-inning mark in his eight-year career, the closest coming in 2016 when he pitched 187 2/3 innings for the Rays. This past season, he pitched more than six innings just twice and averaged 5.3 innings per start. And understandably so: opponents had a .883 OPS against him the third time through the order as opposed to a .610 OPS the first time through.
Why Odorizzi is a fit for the Blue Jays:
While the Blue Jays have maintained they’re intent on spending on starting pitching this offseason, it seems unlikely they’ll be in the mix for the top free-agent starters, if not because they can be easily outspent by the likes of the New York Yankees, but because free agents have been reluctant to sign with Toronto, especially during a rebuild. Odorizzi, however, is situated in that mid-tier of available starters, and that’s likely where Toronto will look to do their shopping. The aim, according to general manager Ross Atkins, is to bring in starters “that we can count on.”
Odorizzi would fill a few needs for the Blue Jays and could be a stabilizer for their rotation going forward. He’s a reliable arm with minimal injury history and a career 3.88 ERA. He’s heading into his age-30 season and coming off his best campaign, where it appeared as though he cracked the code on how to throw his fastball harder. That said, he isn’t in the same category as a Gerrit Cole or Madison Bumgarner, and won’t demand the salary (or term) they will. In other words, he’s not an ace, but he would make a lot of sense and, more pertinently, he seems like an achievable target for the Blue Jays, who have ample room to add to their 2020 payroll and beyond.
In his session with reporters following the season, Atkins indicated this offseason would resemble the club’s 2015 and 2016 winters. In 2015, the Blue Jays signed J.A. Happ to a three-year deal worth $36 million, which might in the range of what Odorizzi can expect. Back then, Happ, also a flyball-prone pitcher, was coming off a good season, brought on by mechanical adjustments he made with the Pittsburgh Pirates. It was far from a flashy deal and could have backfired had Happ underperformed. But, four years removed, it still stands as one of their better recent free-agent signings. (And it should be noted the deal was completed while Tony LaCava was the team’s interim GM.)
And, most importantly, Odorizzi’s Twitter bio states he is a “hockey enthusiast.” What better place for a hockey enthusiast to be than the centre of the hockey universe?
Why Odorizzi might not be a fit for the Blue Jays:
After having pitched in the postseason for the first time in his career, Odorizzi may be seeking a more competitive atmosphere than the Blue Jays can offer next season. While the aim in Toronto is to build a sustainable winner, the Blue Jays still remain in the early stages of that process, with a return to relevancy in the AL East looking, at best, more likely for 2021 or beyond. With so many teams vying for starting pitchers this offseason, Odorizzi may receive more enticing offers, including from the Twins, who will look to stay competitive in the weak AL Central next season.
There also remains the possibility that the Twins will make Odorizzi a qualifying offer, and, if he declines it, it will saddle him with a compensatory draft pick. That means, if a team other than the Twins sign him, they’ll have to forfeit a 2020 draft pick. A year ago, draft pick compensation proved to be a major drag on the markets for free-agent pitchers Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel. However, in an interview earlier this month on Sportsnet 590 The Fan with Jeff Blair and Stephen Brunt, Atkins said draft pick compensation “is not something that is going to deter us or keep us away from acquiring a player.”
Odorizzi’s flyball tendencies could also be concerning in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre, not to mention the other AL East ballparks. When he pitched for the Rays, he averaged more than a home run per nine innings (1.3 HR/9), with the number peaking in 2017 when he surrendered 1.9 home runs per nine. Looking at his ERA+, which takes into account factors such as ballpark and opponent to normalize it across the league, prior to 2019 Odorizzi owned a 102 ERA+, which is league average. In 2019, his ERA+ was 131, meaning he pitched 31 percent better than league average.
The likely competition:
The Twins will be a favourite to sign Odorizzi. At the conclusion of the World Series, they’ll have a five-day exclusive window to negotiate with him. During this time, the Twins may also decide to make him a qualifying offer. With pitchers Kyle Gibson and Michael Pineda also set to become free agents, the Twins will need starters for next season. Based on his numbers, Odorizzi seems like the guy they’d most want to keep. That said, he might choose to explore what else is out there.
The list of other teams in search of starters this season is long: Yankees, Rangers, White Sox, Astros, Angels, Mariners, Phillies, Giants, Padres, Mets, Cardinals, Dodgers.
In conclusion:
It’s easy to picture Jake Odorizzi on the Blue Jays next season. Of the available free-agent starters this offseason, he is near the top of that middle-tier, which is likely where Toronto will be looking to spend their money. After putting in the work in the offseason, Odorizzi had his best season yet in 2019, which is good timing for his wallet. Odorizzi won’t demand a huge salary commitment, but he should attract plenty of suitors, with so many teams in search of starters. So, if the Blue Jays do pursue him, they likely won’t be alone.
Among the teams after Odorizzi, his former club, the Twins have the inside track on negotiations. But Odorizzi can also decide to see what else is out there. He would fill an obvious need for the Blue Jays and they can afford to award term and salary to attract free agents. Will it be enough to lure Odorizzi to Toronto?
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