I think we do indeed.
Let's recap what has transpired.
Jan. 30: Six days after reports emerged that the Padres were discussing a trade for Mookie Betts, San Diego remains actively engaged in trade talks involving the 2018 American League MVP Award winner, sources tell MLB.com's AJ Cassavell.
But one of their NL West rivals, the Dodgers, is also still holding discussions with the Red Sox about Betts, per The Athletic's Andy McCullough ( no relation ) who adds that "dialogue with Boston has approached a resolution on Betts."
The principles of a Padres-Red Sox deal are in place, but Wil Myers appears to be the sticking point. The issue, more specifically, is just how much of the $61 million remaining on Myers' contract the Red Sox are willing to take on.
Meanwhile, Andy McCullough of the Athletic speculates that the Dodgers would likely balk at the prospect of taking on the entirety of David Price's contract ($96 million over the next three years) despite their considerable financial resources. Los Angeles' lineup as currently constructed already ranks among the National League's best. But adding Betts at the top could be a difference-maker in finally getting the Dodgers over the October hump.
MLB.com's Jon Paul Morosi reports that the Dodgers will not deal shortstop Gavin Lux (MLB's second ranked prospect according to MLB Pipeline) in a Betts trade package, but they are willing to include outfielder Alex Verdugo -- a former top 100 prospect himself. That kind of depth in the Dodgers' system is a big reason why Los Angeles could ultimately get a Betts deal done, says MLB Network insider Jon Heyman.
Jan. 28: Trade talks involving Betts have picked up steam over the past week or so, and MLB Network insider Jon Heyman gets the sense that the Red Sox are "more serious than ever" about moving the 27-year-old outfielder.
Per Heyman, some rivals are starting to think a deal will happen, which is a stark change from the industry consensus earlier in the offseason.
The Padres and Dodgers are the two clubs that have been most heavily connected to Betts lately, but it's unclear if there's a front runner to acquire the 2018 American League MVP Award winner.
a San diego repotersaid that on Monday that multiple people within the Padres organization aren't optimistic about the team's chances of acquiring Betts. That feeling is due to the Dodgers' presence in negotiations, as well as the belief that the Red Sox are unwilling to take on more of the $61 million owed to Wil Myers over the next three years.
Per Acee, the Padres have offered to send the Red Sox multiple young Major Leaguers and at least one prospect along with Myers in exchange for Betts, but they want Boston to assume roughly 75 percent of Myers' remaining salary in the deal, while the Sox have offered to pick up about half. It's assumed that the Dodgers, given their deep pockets and strong farm system, can offer a comparable package of young talent without requiring the Red Sox to take back significant money.
Jan. 27: The Padres are still pushing for a Betts trade reports out of San Diego that money is impeding a potential deal., but San Diego is willing to package two young Major Leaguers -- Manuel Margot or Josh Naylor and Cal Quantrill or Joey Lucchesi -- plus one prospect in exchange for Betts, with Boston also taking on Wil Myers, who is owed a guaranteed $61 million over the next three years. However, the Sox are only willing to assume about half of Myers' remaining salary, while the Padres want the team to take on roughly 75 percent.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers are also discussing a Betts trade with the Red Sox, per a report from the Boston Globe on Sunday. If Los Angeles is willing to assume all of Betts' $27 million salary in 2020 without requiring Boston to take back significant money in the deal, the Red Sox may prefer trading with the Dodgers over the Padres. But in that case, the package of prospects going to Boston likely wouldn't be as good.
Jan. 26: The Red Sox are still discussing Betts trade scenarios with the Dodgers and Padres, according to a report by a reporter from the Boston Globe.
That doesn't make a Betts trade certain, but the fact that Boston is still considering both clubs' proposals -- each reportedly containing combinations of Major Leaguers and top prospects -- with Spring Training on the horizon signals that the club is still open-minded to a swap. Speier reports that the Red Sox's willingness to trade Betts "appears serious."
While the Red Sox could compete for the American League East title this year, MLB Network insider Ken Rosenthal notes in his Sunday column from The Athletic that clearing Betts' salary -- and getting a prospect-laden return for him before he departs via free agency -- would potentially give Boston a more flexible future.
The Dodgers have the financial wherewithal to take on Betts' $27 million salary this year, and possess multiple highly regarded prospects besides shortstop Gavin Lux and pitcher Dustin May, who appear to be untouchable. Los Angeles could probably take on the remaining $96 million left on David Price's contract as part of a deal, too. A deal with the Padres could involve the Red Sox acquiring outfielder Wil Myers, who is owed $61 million over the next three years. San Diego would probably need to tack on significant prospect talent to convince Boston to take on Myers in a swap. Rosenthal reports that the D-backs, with former Boston ties in manager Torey Lovullo and general manager Mike Hazen, have also shown at least some interest in trading for Betts. However, on paper, Arizona doesn't appear to have either the financial or prospect resources to compete with the Dodgers or Padres in a bidding war.
Jan. 23: The Padres have discussed a trade with the Red Sox involving Betts, with recent talks focusing on a package of Wil Myers and prospects going to Boston, sources told a reporter from MLB.com confirming what was initially reported by Dennis Lin of the Athletic. People familiar with the discussions consider a trade to be a long shot at this juncture, but there's at least legitimate interest on both sides, Lin notes.
Myers is owed $61 million guaranteed over the next three seasons, including a $1 million buyout of his $20 million club option for 2023. However, the average annual value of his contract is only $13.8 million, which would help Boston in its goal of getting under the $208 million.
Betts will earn $27 million in his final year before free agency. Cot's Baseball Contracts projects that the Red Sox, as currently constituted, will have a CBT figure of roughly $225 million this season.
The Padres' front office is entering a critical campaign. The team has yet to register a winning record during general manager A.J. Preller's tenure, despite his penchant for aggressive moves. Although they signed Manny Machado to a 10-year, $300 million contract last winter and got stellar rookie seasons from Fernando Tatis Jr. and Chris Paddack, the Padres ended up winning only four more games in 2019 than they did the previous season. Exchanging Myers and prospects for Betts could go a long way toward helping San Diego reach the postseason for the first time since 2006.
The Padres have one of the best farm systems in baseball and could present an enticing package to the Red Sox, even with the team unwilling to trade Mackenzie Gore, Luis Patiño, CJ Abrams and possibly others..
Buster Olney recently reported that the Red Sox were asking for multiple high-end prospects in exchange for Betts, and for the acquiring team to take on David Price -- and most or all of the $96 million owed to the left-hander over the next three years -- in any deal. However, Boston's talks with the Padres perhaps show a willingness to lower its demands.
According to Lin, the Padres and Red Sox kicked around a Myers-for-Price swap earlier this offseason, but San Diego has limited interest in that scenario.
Jan. 19: Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom may still be exploring trades for Betts, but ESPN's Buster Olney reports in an article that some rival evaluators view the team's asking price as overly steep.
Per Olney, any deal for Betts must include David Price, with the acquiring team taking on most or all of the $96 million still owed to the left-hander over the next three seasons. And that's not all. The Red Sox also are asking for two high-end prospects.
Principal owner John Henry said at the end of the 2019 season that he wanted the club to get under the $208 million threshold to reset the penalty rate, leading to speculation that Boston would look to move Betts this offseason. The 27-year-old can become a free agent after the 2020 campaign, during which he'll earn $27 million.
However, Henry told The Boston Globe earlier this month that the Red Sox are "focused on competitiveness over the next five years over and above resetting" the CBT penalty rate.
Given Boston's lofty trade demands, it's looking more and more likely that the 2018 American League MVP Award winner will be with the club entering the upcoming season.
Well , Boston have ultimately what they wanted....a bidding war from two teams chock full of young protectable players. Let's see where Mookie ends up.
No comments:
Post a Comment