Well, if that’s true, you know what that means. It means we’ve done it again. It means we’ve officially persevered through another long (and especially insane) baseball winter.
It means there’s hope. For warmth. For daylight that extends past 4:30 in the afternoon. And, especially, for a glimpse of Mike Trout and Christian Yelich flashing across a gleaming green baseball field near you. It’s time for actual spring baseball, unfolding this week on the same planet you live on. How uplifting is that?
So unlock those gates of Hohokam Stadium. Open that Waze app and tap in “JetBlue Park.” Spring training 2020 has finally arrived. And to help us make sense of what’s about to unfold, we just finished polling 30 of the smartest baseball people we know, from outposts across this great land. How do they see the spring training landscape that’s about to take shape? Read on. You’re about to find out.
Are the Astros ready for the onslaught?
As part of this survey, we asked our panelists to name the spring stories that intrigued them most. You’ll never, ever guess the first thing we learned: That those 2020 Houston Astros haven’t begun to grasp the fury, the questions, the boos or the derision that’s about to descend upon them. Here’s just a sampling of the answers in the category of “Most Intriguing American League Storyline.”• “Come on, man. Isn’t it kind of obvious what the biggest story in the American League is going to be — all year?”
• “Was there any other story this winter besides sign-stealing?”
• “Are opposing teams actually going to throw at the Astros all the time? This seems scary.”
• “I don’t think the Astros thing is over. I still think there is something out there where someone is going to start chirping about things they know.”
And on and on and on. On one hand, we wonder: How will these guys answer the questions that are about to start spewing at them? Will they answer them at all? Do they understand that those questions are never going to stop, even if they say stuff like: “We’re only going to talk about this one time?”
Are they ready for that daily soundtrack of fans banging on trash cans in the stands? Do they understand there is now a dark shadow over everything they’ve accomplished — and it’s possible that shadow will follow them for years? Have they grasped how many people have already consigned them to the Cheaters Hall of Fame, right there alongside Lance Armstrong, the old Soviet Olympic teams and Tonya Harding?
But on the other hand, how long will it take for the rest of us to be able to put this aside and focus on anything else? As one NL exec put it, the story of this offseason should have been the wild, hyperactive free-agent market and the refreshing sight of so many mid-market teams trying to win. Instead, the Astros turned into the baseball eclipse that blotted out all other stories.
“It all got overshadowed by the Astros,” that exec said. “It was such a black eye for baseball and such a PR hit for baseball that we couldn’t really celebrate an offseason that both sides should be celebrating.”
SURVEY SAID … Various plot twists in the Astros’ saga got 25 votes for “Most Intriguing AL Story.” And to prove our earlier point, it was hard for our voters to muster interest in anything else. Even though panelists were allowed to vote for more than one, only two other storylines got more than one vote — the MLB-investigated post-Mookie Betts/Alex Cora Red Sox (six votes) and when/where will the Indians trade Francisco Lindor (two)?
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| Bryant Arrenado |
Will Bryant or Arenado stay put through the spring?
At least we had furious competition for the prestigious title of “Most Intriguing National League Story.” There was Mookie in Dodger blue, the Reds “going for it,” the many swirling Mets plot lines — from ownership to the manager to the annual how healthy will their rotation be drama — and lots of NL East fascination in general. But let’s put those angles aside, because they took a back seat to the interest in the uncertain future of two of the best third basemen in baseball — Kris Bryant and Nolan Arenado.When we asked our panel, in a separate category, which National League players they were most surprised didn’t get traded this winter, guess which two stars finished 1-2 for that “honor?” Yessir. It was Bryant (five votes) and Arenado (four).
At least that, technically, was the voting. But in reality, it wasn’t that close. We also awarded Bryant bonus points for two additional two votes that went to “any Cub.” Plus Bryant got extra-extra credit, since it’s the second week of February and the Kris Bryant rumors are still keeping MLB Trade Rumors hopping — at such a level that one NL exec said: “I wouldn’t be surprised if Bryant still gets traded.”
Funny he should say that because, as The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney wrote just this week, the Cubs and Rockies have even kicked around the idea of trading Bryant and Arenado for each other. Don’t bet your season tickets on that one happening this spring. But it’s also fair to ponder what happens if neither guy gets dealt after all these weeks of rumblings — especially Arenado, whose relationship with his bosses in Colorado has turned into what one exec described as “a debacle.”
“I’m not sure that (Arenado/front office) relationship is repairable,” said another of our voters. “That toothpaste is too far out of the tube.”
SURVEY SAID … Here come all the NL players who got mentioned in the “Surprised They Didn’t Get Traded” voting: Bryant 5, Arenado 4, “Any Cub” 2, Kyle Schwarber 1, Wil Myers 1, Josh Bell 1, J.D. Davis 1. Yep, J.D. Davis!
Lindor’s last stand
We spent lots of time last week debating the last time a player as great as Mookie Betts got traded. So on that note, here’s a topic we can chew on for our next slow day in sports talk: When was the last time a shortstop quite like Francisco Lindor got traded?As you think about that one over the next few months, remember that Lindor is a 26-year-old four-time All-Star and two-time Gold Glove winner who has averaged 34 homers, 21 steals and 79 extra-base hits a year over the last three seasons. And once upon a time, it took a court order to move a player like that out of any town. But in the AL division of the “Surprised They Didn’t Get Traded” balloting, Lindor was the only player who even got more than two votes.
So how serious were the Indians about moving him? One panelist whose team kicked those tires this winter described the Lindor rumors as “total B.S.” — not because the Indians didn’t listen but because “I think they just threw his name out there to set a market” for a deal down the road. But an exec from another team had a totally different take.
“They never act like they’re trying to move anybody,” he said. “That’s their whole thing … I thought for sure they’d move him, just to max out on his value. Two years of control. If you wait till the deadline, only certain teams need a shortstop so you don’t have the same amount of teams. Then you get to next offseason, and you’ve only got one year of control. So the longer you wait, the harder it gets.”
SURVEY SAID … How ’bout this eclectic mix of AL players who showed up in the “Surprised They Didn’t Get Traded” voting: Lindor 9, Mitch Haniger 2, Mychal Givens 1, Miguel Andújar 1. What? Couldn’t even muster a single vote for Whit Merrifield?
Will Gerrit Cole be the greatest free-agent pitcher ever?
Until now, there had never been such a thing on this earth as a $324 million pitcher. For that matter, there had never been a pitcher contract that came within 100 million bucks of that. But then Gerrit Cole showed up.He’s not just the newest Yankee. He’s the highest-paid Yankee in the history of pinstripes. Nine years, $324 million. Can he possibly be worth it? Sheez, can anybody?
Apparently, yes — because check out the voting in the “Best Free Agent Signing” competition:
Gerrit Cole: 18
Didi Gregorius: 12
Anthony Rendon: 11
Stephen Strasburg: 7
Josh Donaldson: 5
Marcell Ozuna: 5
Madison Bumgarner: 5
We can report, with great amusement, that two of our voters put Cole on their list of best and worst signings — and made sure to let us know that wasn’t a mistake. But other than them, not one voter included Cole on their worst-signing list. And we can testify, after more than a decade of doing this survey, that’s pretty much unprecedented for any monster contract.
“He’s worth it,” said one exec known for his never-ending disdain for the free-agent starting-pitcher market. “He’d be worth it at 10 years at $30 million a year. He’s worth it because there’s just such limited access to talent of that magnitude.”
SURVEY SAID… You know this market was shockingly robust when 19 different free agents got votes in the “Best Signing” balloting. Our favorite guy who got a vote? Dusty Baker!
The new Big Red Machine?
Here’s a little trivia question you can use to stump your buddies down at the old corner tavern: The last time the Cincinnati Reds won a postseason series, which pitcher won the clincher?The correct answer: None other than legendary Reds lefthander David Wells! Outdueled Hideo Nomo and the Dodgers in Game 3 of the 1995 NLDS. And in a related development, that’s also the last time the Reds won a postseason game in Cincinnati. Boy, those 25 years can sure whoosh by, can’t they?
But here’s some big news that should bring joy to everyone down at Skyline Chili: The Reds won the winter! That’s official — at least according to our annual spring training survey, where the Reds tied the Dodgers for “Most Improved NL Team.” Here’s the leader board (in which voters were asked to vote for their three most improved):
Reds: 23
Dodgers: 23
Diamondbacks: 19
Phillies: 9
Braves: 7
Just to catch you up on how the Reds attained this exalted status, they’ve been busy. They guaranteed $164 million to five free agents — Nick Castellanos, Mike Moustakas (to play second base), Wade Miley, Pedro Strop and Japanese outfielder Shogo Akiyama. Add all that to their deal last July that inserted Trevor Bauer into their rotation, and this is now one fascinating team.
But they should know that our voters also had their doubts. One NL exec wondered if this group will gel into “a better team,” as opposed to just “a better roster.” And another NL exec had so many questions about how the defensive pieces will fit (or not) that he pronounced this “the most overrated offseason I can remember in a long time.”
Historical note: The Reds also got 20 votes in last year’s “Most Improved NL Team” balloting — and were so inspired, they went out and started 1-8 and finished 75-87. So apparently, winning the winter isn’t always all it’s cracked up to be.
SURVEY SAID … Another sign it was quite the active offseason: Nine of the 15 NL teams got at least one vote for Most Improved. (The only exceptions: Rockies, Giants, Brewers, Cardinals, Cubs and Pirates.) On the other hand, five teams got votes for most and least improved: Mets, Marlins, Padres, Braves and Nationals.
Are the White Sox now the team in Chicago?
That’s kind of a trick question, because if we polled the diners at Gino’s East, we’re pretty sure they’d try to convince us the White Sox won’t ever be the team in Chicago. But let’s ignore all that and go on just this survey.Which team got the most votes for “Most Improved AL Team?” That would be your 2020 White Sox, with 25 votes — seven more than the Yankees. Meanwhile, which team finished second to the Rockies for “Most Unimproved NL Team?” That would be your 2020 Cubs, with 16 votes.
So what should we make of this? Who the heck knows? The White Sox laid out $196 million for five free agents: Yasmani Grandal, Dallas Keuchel, Gio Gonzales, Edwin Encarnación, Steve Cishek and the returning José Abreu. They also traded for Nomar Mazara and extended one of baseball’s most talented phenoms, Luis Robert, for six years, $50 million — before he’d ever played a game in the big leagues.
Yet we didn’t find much sentiment that they were now clearly better than the Twins or Indians. And one voter had so many doubts about every one of those additions, he said, flatly: “I don’t think this was as big an offseason as everyone seems to think.”
Meanwhile, the Cubs took lots of heat for not making any of the big roster-shakeup moves Theo Epstein had suggested were coming. Yet our voters still gave them a legitimate shot to win the NL Central — and thought David Ross could make a big impact from the manager’s office.
“They really didn’t have a lot they could do,” said one executive. “And adding David Ross does give them a different dynamic. I wonder how much (Joe Maddon’s) message had run its course … I think (the right) manager does make a difference.”
SURVEY SAID … Four teams dominated the “Most Improved AL Team” voting: White Sox 25, Yankees 18, Twins 17, Angels 15. Nobody else got more than four votes … But the “Most Unimproved NL Team” voting was an 11-team free-for-all. Every team but the Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Phillies and Reds got votes. And the top of the ballot looked like this: Rockies 23, Cubs 16, Pirates 15, Giants 12, Brewers 7, Cardinals 7.
How loaded are the Dodgers?
This just in: The Dodgers are going to be scary. They won 106 games last year. Then they made the trade that was the runaway winner for “Best Trade of the Offseason,” for that man they call Mookie. Before we tell you how scary, here’s the top three in that category:Dodgers trade for Mookie Betts/David Price: 17
Diamondbacks trade for Starling Marte: 7
Rangers trade for Corey Kluber: 4
So how good are the Dodgers now? Wow. They just won 106 games — and led their league in runs, homers, slugging and OPS. In fact, their whole team had a higher OPS (.810) than Manny Machado, Marcell Ozuna or Joey Votto. And now they’ve added a six-to-10-win player in Mookie? That’s not fair, is it?
“That Dodgers’ offense has a chance, historically, to be one of the best of all time,” said one NL executive. “I mean, No. 1-through-8, is there a hole anywhere, especially if (Gavin) Lux pops the way he could? I don’t see one. They’re terrifying.”
SURVEY SAID … For all the heat the Red Sox are taking, there were five voters in this survey who either said they liked this deal for both teams (L.A. or Boston) or for “all three teams” (meaning they also were looping in the Twins) … Meanwhile, the four voters who mentioned the Kluber deal were vociferous in how much they loved it for Texas. Even if the Rangers don’t contend, said one exec, if Kluber has a bounce-back first half, “they can take him and flip him at the deadline and get five times what they gave up for him.”
Didn’t you used to be the Orioles?
It seems kind of crazy to think the Orioles played a postseason game more recently than the Phillies, Tigers or Mike Trout. But we are not making this up. Remember that 2016 wild card game? Who knew that painful defeat would look like the glory days compared to whatever the heck is going on in Baltimore at the moment.Here’s another corner-tavern bet you’re sure to win. Walk into any bar outside the 410 or 301 area codes and ask: Name six Orioles. It’s so hard that even people who work in baseball — people who took part in this survey — were huffing and puffing mightily, trying to answer basic questions like: Can you name the Orioles’ lineup? How about their rotation? Or their bullpen?
“I don’t know who the hell is on their team,” said one longtime executive.
“I’m trying to do their lineup in my head right now, and I’m struggling,” said a pro scouting director.
“Let me try their bullpen,” said the same pro scouting director. “Let’s see. Mychal Givens … I’m trying to think of who else … Wow. I can name one guy in their bullpen.”
This is a major-league team, friends. But our perplexed voters will be relieved to learn it’s also the “Least Recognizable Team in Baseball,” according to our survey. Of the 30 voters, 22 picked the Orioles in this category — and one who didn’t said he refused to vote for them “because they are irrelevant.
Well I can hear the snowplow meandering down the road,so it's time for me to put my boots back on, and await the plow burying my driveway deep in the white stuff yet again.
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