The No. 1 spot: I had
Christian Yelich at the top of my rankings when the draft guide debuted this year, barely ahead of
Ronald Acuna Jr. That was before the
Marcell Ozuna
signing, though, and that added boost to the Braves lineup was enough
to give Acuna the slightest of edges in my predictions. Acuna’s perch is
a little more comfortable now as a result of the universal DH. While
that should benefit the Brewers a little more than the Braves on the
whole, Acuna’s status as a leadoff man gives him an extra lift, as he’ll
be batting behind
Ender Inciarte or
Johan Camargo instead of the pitcher.
The No. 1 pitcher: That
Jacob deGrom got the nod over
Gerrit Cole
originally was a function of his easier assignment in the NL East. Now
that every game in the 2020 season will feature a designated hitter,
there’s no longer much of a bias in favor of NL starters in my
projections. Cole has assumed the top spot, and 16 of my top 30 SPs are
American Leaguers. Of course, deGrom is still a strong No. 2, and while
the schedule isn’t great for NL East pitchers, I see no reason to avoid
him in drafts.
The second-tier shortstops: Beyond the first-round trio of
Trevor Story,
Trea Turner and
Francisco Lindor, I placed
Alex Bregman 17th,
Fernando Tatis Jr. 22nd and
Adalberto Mondesi
24th in my original top 300 this year. Now, though, Mondesi is 16th,
Tatis is 17th and Bregman sits 22nd. Mondesi was iffy for Opening Day
after shoulder surgery, but he should again be fully healthy and he
looks like the best bet in the league for steals this year. Tatis was
also dinged because of injury risk, but he’s more likely to get through
60 games than he was 162 and he’ll also benefit from getting out behind
the pitcher in the Padres’ lineup. He might even DH on occasion.
Starting pitchers with injury histories: It’s the
season without innings limits, and many of the pitchers who would be
lousy bets to get through 30 starts in a normal year should be better
positioned to pitch just 12 times.
Tyler Glasnow,
James Paxton,
Charlie Morton,
Yu Darvish and
Rich Hill are among those moving up some in my rankings now that I’m not worrying much about durability, and
Julio Urias,
Jose Urquidy and
Jesus Luzardo
have moved into my top 30 SPs since innings just aren’t really a
factor. If I had a draft tonight, I wouldn’t want to go nuts drafting
starting pitchers, since a number will surely come up with strains and
sprains while trying to quickly ramp up for the season. However, in late
drafts, I’ll be changing my typical hitter-pitcher mix some, valuing
the currently healthy pitchers higher (as compared to hitters) than I
typically would.
Risky closers: Managers have itchy trigger fingers
with closers during the best of times, and 60-game seasons certainly
don’t qualify as the best of times. As a result, I’m not valuing upside
with relievers as much as I usually would.
Edwin Diaz
opened up as my No. 3 closer, but if he blows a game in the first week
of the season, he might never see another ninth-inning lead. He’s
seventh now with the potential to tumble further if doesn’t look sharp
next month.
Craig Kimbrel and
Nick Anderson have also slid some in my rankings, while
Aroldis Chapman,
Ken Giles and
Sean Doolittle, all of whom have durability concerns, have moved up.
NL designated hitters moving up: Ryan Braun,
Howie Kendrick and
Wil Myers
rated as the biggest beneficiaries of the universal DH in my rankings.
Braun, who seemed destined to sit against the majority of righties as a
result of the
Avisail Garcia
addition, jumped from No. 250 to No. 186 on my list. Kendrick is No.
201, and Myers comes in at No. 240. I’m also a lot more excited about
Nick Senzel again, as the DH spot should free up room of the Reds to use him regularly in the outfield.
|
Ohtani Oh My |
AL DH’s are helped, too: It doesn’t apply to all of
them equally, but those American League designated hitters who can’t
play the field no longer have to worry about interleague games on the
schedule. In a typical season, that’s 5.6 percent of the time
Nelson Cruz or
Shohei Ohtani would be limited to pinch-hitting appearances. Taking that out of the equation lifted Cruz a couple of spots.
Boosts for NL leadoff men: As already mentioned in
regards to Acuna and Tatis, it’s a pretty nice lift for NL leadoff men
to be batting behind hitters instead of pitchers. It’s especially
important for those batters with pop, like
Mookie Betts,
Kris Bryant and
Jonathan Villar.
Bryant had been among my least favorite picks this year because of his
lofty price tag and lack of RBI opportunities. I still rate him as a
poor value, but not to the same extent that he was a few months ago.
Of course, all of the adjusting I’ve done since the shutdown to take
my projections from 162 games to 108 to 81 and now to 60 could look like
small potatoes compared to what’s coming over the next four weeks. Some
players will opt out of the season. Some will suffer new injuries or
experience setbacks with previous ailments. Unfortunately, some will
catch COVID-19, and while many of those cases could prove asymptomatic,
it’s unclear how long it will take for anyone diagnosed with the virus
to be cleared to return (it will require two negative tests).
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Yelich & Mustard |
I also need to dig in and make some adjustments to account for a
schedule that sees teams play 10 games each against their division
rivals and 20 games total against the corresponding division in the
other league. That’d seem to benefit the Central division clubs,
particularly the Twins, Indians and White Sox in the AL. 20 games each
against the Tigers and Royals will be very nice, and while the other
Central is no pushover, it’s probably the weakest division in the NL. I
was quite a bit lower than the pack on
Jose Berrios and
Jake Odorizzi this spring, but given the schedule they’ll be facing, they definitely need to move up some in my rankings.
Anything goes in a 60-game season. We make our best guesses, but it’s
not like projections are all that reliable for 162-game samples. Now
we’re just taking a 37% chunk of that while also having little way to
account for the three-month pause in between spring trainings and
everything this virus could do to teams and players. It’s going to be a
free-for-all, and I hope to have fun with it. However, when it’s over,
we probably shouldn’t make many judgments based on the results.