Baseball has 162 individual skirmishes to it's long season, and experts tend to find it necessary to chop up the segments, like "after the All Star break", and " September ball ", amongst the many ways to see what can be learned or predicted. It is always thought certain players perform better after 81 games have past, and some pitchers fade like a bad black and white photo in September.
Not a lot can be seen after 40-41 games are in the books to demonstrate how teams will finish, some get an early lead and never relinquish it. Such a team was Sparky Anderson's 1984 Detroit Tigers, who inexplicably surged to a 35-5 start. Unheard of in modern day, these were not the 27 Yankees, nor the 1970 Cincinnati Reds, a good team, but they had a great jump after 40 games, and rode it to a division championship. Beat the Padres in the World Series.
So we look at the standings, and find the Tampa Rays heading the Yankees in the east, the Twins and Tigers at the top of the Central, and the Rangers , and Angels and A's all lumped into a 3 team morass in the west. For now, forget about the National League, because I want to make a remark concerning the Jays, one that I never thought would creep into the discussions this year. They are not that bad. A 24-17 record with no Halladay, and Lind and Hill not hitting .250, I mean come on, not a chance. That Zepper-Chinski dude on the shelf, no Litsch, still no Dustin McGowan and Jason Fraser has lost his closer role after 2 weeks. You put these facts down and you would have to conclude we having a clunker of a year.
Last year at this time the team was 27-14 and tied for the best record with the Dodgers of LA. They had great performances from the bullpen, and the Doc was fabulous, and then it all went to hell in a hand basket, and they rattled off 10 straight losses, and that was the season, they stumbled, and bumbled until October came, and they ran out games.
What is noticeable is as follows, Wells is healthy, and they have received long ball support from 2 unlikely sources, shortstop Alex Gonzalez and 3B/OF Jose Bautista, with 10 and 11 big flies, so the part that worries me about their success is their team batting average is woe full, but their power says "over achievers ", and would due for a drop off.
The nay sayers like me would point that out, but the positive thinkers would remind me that they Aaron Hill and Adam Lind to begin to offer major contributions, so we have many half empty cups, and half full cups in the same sentence.
The truth is generally somewhere in the middle. Most are never as bad as they appear in a losing streak, and some not as good in a winning streak.
I predicted a grand total of 67 wins, and I am man enough to admit that I was wrong. Adding Freddy Lewis was a genius stroke, and provided the team with a true lead off hitter, and Kevin Gregg has been wonderful as new closer. My Lord even John Buck is hitting well over .260 with 8 homers and a bunch of key timely hits. But the pitching has kept them around, and ahead of the Red Sox, and only a handful of games behind Tampa and NY, so while there are hills to climb, at the quarter pole, they are further in front than I expected.
I cannot take back the 67 win prediction, and while I still caution that it is only May, while you don't win the pennant in May, a poor start can leave you making plans for the next year.
It is a long horse race, but so far Jays fans, it still that, a race, and your team has the leaders in sight. You know there was one team that stayed close with those 35-5 rampaging Tigers, and for a brief glimpse were trailing them in mid June by 2 and half games.
Ladies and Gentleman, that was your Toronto Blue Jays.
There is always the unexpected.
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