2011 is just around the corner, but don't peek

The good folks at TSN have posted the projections for hitters and pitchers and for the top 5 staring pitchers, I would not go there, it is not for the faint of heart. No Jay starter is projected as being under a 4.00 ERA, and 5th man Jesse Litsch is well over 5.

The consensus is that Romero, Morrow, Cecil, Drabek, and Litsch will win 14,11, 10, 10 and 5 respectively. No one hazards a guess as to what the bullpen can add to that total, but that's 50 wins, but the rotations combined ERA is around 4.45, give or take.

The hitters project to mostly do what they did last year, with Lind and Hill's batting averages ascend to the .260's, while Mickey Bautista is expected to drop 20 dingers. Snider and Arrencebia are expected to mature, and Wells to slide back a bit. All tolled, about the same overall batting average, no .300 hitters, no 100 rbi guys, but just solid decent expectations.

Just based on these ZIPS Stats and Bill James editions, ir appears that Anthopolous is a genius, we are not ready for prime time yet, so that 2012 expectation looks better.

A crack bullpen, of Frasor, Purcey, Camp, Richmond, Carlson, Janssen and Octo Man, and well, I agree, just will not say how many wins this squad is capable of.

My opinion is that TSN does not see a repeat of 2010 any time soon, so 85 wins in their minds is a stretch, but nobody gave last years team much of a chance, and there were some 100 loss comments in March.

Marcum gone, Gregg and Downs gone, Lyle's defense gone, no Fred Lewis, and the 4rth starter has 3 games under his belt, that's the downside.

The upside is still Yunel Escobar, a better Aaron Hill , JP Arrencebia, and some speed from the Rajah.

The keys to 2011 are as follows;

1. Aaron Hill returns to 2009 form

2. Romero wins 16 games, his ERA at 3.65

3. Dotel saves 35, keeps his ERA under 3.00

4. Travis Snider......

5. Lind can play defense

6. CC Sabathia breaks his hip and missed 4 months

7. The Red Sox all watch the solar eclipse without eye protetcion.

8. Tampa declares bankrupcy

9. The bullpen blows less than 10 games

10. John Farrell knows where to bat Vernon Wells, and gets Snider 500 at bats.

As we inch closer to 2011, a few topics we will explore.

The deals we made and how they worked out.

Are the Rays pulling a Florida Marlin act.

Big Red, is he closer to induction

Roger's trials and tribulations

Which way is Andy Pettitte leaning today, money, money, money, or a rocking chair.