Estevan

Over the last couple of years, the Yankees farm system has become one of the best systems in the entire league. In addition to recently producing such gems as Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez, the system has been bolstered with the recent acquisitions of high-end talents such as Gleyber Torres and Clint Frazier via trades, Blake Rutherford and James Kaprelian via the draft, and Jorge Mateo and Miguel Andujar via the international market.

However, one of the more overlooked prospects in the Yankees system is outfielder Estevan Florial who, before the year is out, could be prove himself to be as good if not better than any prospect in the Yankees system or even all of baseball if he can reach his considerably high ceiling.

I had the chance to watch Florial in action against the Rome Braves on June 28 and, as a happy accident and as I was writing this, he was just named to the 2017 Futures Game as a member of the World team roster. For reference sake, Florial has posted a .310/.388/.522 line in 2017 in low-A with 10 home runs, 34 RBIs, and 13 stolen bases. In the game I watched him, he went 2-5 with an RBI, a run scored, and two strikeouts.

First, some background

Estevan Florial originally hailed from Haiti before his mother, who was trying to get him into school and who did not have his official identifying paperwork, enrolled him in the Dominican Republic as Haniel d’Oleo. Under this new identity, Estevan would become one of the top international prospects in the 2014 international free agent class.

However, before he could report to the Yankees, the discrepancies in his paperwork caught up with him which nearly cost him a contract altogether. After his Haitian birth records were retrieved, the Yankees and the league were satisfied that there wasn’t any intent to deceive the league per se and New York signed him for $200,000 and assigned him to its Dominican Summer League affiliate in 2015.

After dominating the DSL in 2015 with a .921 OPS over 57 games, the Yankees made some some puzzling league assignment decisions with Florial. In 2016 he played games across three levels and largely struggled throughout the year, in particular with pitch recognition and swing-and-miss issues. Usually posting a .227/.312/.371 over the course of a season is cause for concern especially when the vast majority of that playing time is in Rookie ball, but the Yankees’ player development team saw real talent and value and it is paying dividends now.

Now, the good news

Florial has an impressive toolset. His speed, raw power, and arm in the outfield stand out as the best tools, but he has a chance to be a true 5-tool guy. He is listed at 6’1 and 185, but to my eye I would guess he has bulked up a bit more than that by maybe 10 pounds. There is room on his frame for more muscle, but given how fast he is, doing so could be a detriment to his overall game and he certainly isn’t lacking power.

His swing is a bit busy to start, but he has quick hands, plus bat speed, and good feel for the barrel. He also does a good job keeping his lower body involved in his swing without messing up his timing. After getting drilling by a HBP in his first at-bat on the first pitch he saw, he jumped all over a fastball in his second at-bat and sent it for a line drive single into right with an exit velocity right at 107 MPH. He was pulling a lot of balls in the game I saw him, but a cursory look at his spray chart from this season over at MLBFarm indicates that he does a good job of using the entire field, although he does seem hit a lot of grounders to the right side of the infield.

His raw power is evident especially in batting practice, but his game power may not match it because it could interfere with his approach which already aggressive. That isn’t to say that he won’t hit his fair share of home runs given that he is so strong, but his speed will allow him to stretch a lot of extra-base hits as is without making him sell out trying to clear the fences.

Speaking of his speed, Estevan is really fast. He hit a ground ball to the the first baseman in his third at-bat where the fielder was maybe seven to eight feet away (if that) from first and he was only out by maybe a step. He then beat out an infield single on a grounder to shortstop and the play was not close. He also scored from second on a play where he came within about six steps of catching up with the runner ahead of him who scored from third. Florial gets up to speed quickly which bodes well both for his ability to beat grounders out as well as to steal bases as he climbs the ladder.

On the defensive side of the ball, he uses his speed to his advantage and he seems particularly good at coming in on balls. His route running is a little raw and I didn’t get a chance to see him going back on any balls of note given that their opponents (the Rome Braves) were struggling to do much of anything in this particular game. I also did get a chance to see him use his arm, but it was clear that Rome (a team filled with speedsters of their own) respected it as they had no interest in testing him on the chances they had.

His outfield assist total isn’t gaudy this year, but that could easily be due to guys knowing that it would not be wise to try to get too frisky against him as opposed to him doing anything wrong. By all accounts, he has a strong arm as well. With some more refinement with taking efficient routes to the ball, he could easily end up as a plus defender in center field.

That said, nobody is perfect

Let us be clear…..Florial definitely strikes out a lot and of all his tools, his hit tool is the biggest question mark. He is an aggressive hitter, but he showed some good signs in terms of pitch selection and recognition, but some others that were less that good. He currently sports the highest strikeout percentage of his minor league career at 30.9% and he will have to improve there. He struck out looking on the outside corner and then looking again when facing a position player, Kurt Hoekstra, on the mound. Being able to recognize pitches out of the pitcher’s hand is going to be crucial for him, especially when he faces more quality opposition where he won’t be able to solely use his considerable physical gifts and talent to bail him out.

One other note in the realm of not so good: for a guy that has very real raw power and the ability to barrel balls, he hits a lot of ground balls and he will need to convert more of them into line drives. Again, this hasn’t hurt his ability to get hits because he can beat sub-par fielding with his legs, but that won’t hold as much as he advances up levels in the minor leagues. That said, his ground ball rate is definitely trending in the right direction as he has cut over 15% from his ground ball percentage over last year and his line drive and fly ball percentages are trending upwards as well. While his current BABIP of .439 is unsustainable, if he continues to improve and drive the ball with more authority, the more likely he will able to keep his production up.

The verdict

Estevan Florial is an impressive athlete and has a ton of tantalizing potential. It is also really important to note that he is just 19 years old and he will be 19 for the entirety of this season. Many of the issues I have mentioned that he has are completely normal for someone of his age and experience level. For his first real taste of full season ball, he is performing incredibly well. An OPS of .910 (good for fifth in the entire South Atlantic League) is a high level of production and watching him live confirms that it is the product of an impressive skill set and talent level.

MLB Pipeline has Florial listed as the 15th best prospect in the Yankees system. Yes, the Yankees system is loaded and yes, there is very real risk in Florial’s profile. That said, that ranking seems very soft and barring the unforeseen, he should be a top 10 guy on Yankees prospects lists by season’s end.

Makeup:
Off the charts. His manager Pat Osborn echoed the sentiments of several sources when he said, “Not only is he a tremendous player, he’s a tremendous person…if you could build a baseball player it would look like Florial, if you could build a person it would look like him as well”. I was told that he bought a car in extended spring training so that he could show up early to the yard and stay late, and that he also cooks for all his teammates as well. Osborn continued to describe Florial by having three tremendous traits, “poise, respect and humility”.

Tool:
Hit – Swing contains plus bat speed. When asked about the strikeouts and what improvements are needed for Florial to advance to the next level, River Dogs manager Pat Osborn said, “It’s just part of his development, learning how to cut back on strikeouts, what pitches to not swing at, and what pitches he can handle. Getting a better grasp of a two-strike approach… When he does hit the ball, he impacts it and does damage”. I couldn’t agree more with that statement.
Power – I see him having plus power in the future. His swing possesses a high leg kick that will assist in this category. Even though he has been pull side dominant thus far in his career, his strength actually comes into play when he goes to left-center field.
Speed/Baserunning – Florial is a plus runner. I would give him at least a 70 grade on the 20-80 scouting scale.
Glove – Will stick in center field. Has a great first step and plus reactions. Backs up every pitch and is moving on every ball in play.
Arm – Possesses tremendous (plus) arm strength. Throws the ball on a line, with plenty of zip on it.

Overall:

I think Florial is somehow still the most underrated player in the Yankees system, and possibly in all of Minor League Baseball. Pat Osborn (the River-dogs manager) said, “the sky is the limit for this kid, I think the industry knows that, we certainly know that”. He has plus power, speed and arm strength which will allow him to be successful as a corner outfielder should the organization choose to move him from center. Once he cuts down on his strikeouts, beware, he will fly up prospect rankings.

Florial has a really unique profile and I don’t know how to rank him.

 So far this season the 19-year-old Florial is hitting .300/.383/.502 (152 wRC+) with eleven homers, 15 steals in 21 attempts, and an 11.4% walks in 74 Low-A games. That is across the board excellence for a kid who is more than two years younger than the average South Atlantic League player. At the same time, Florial has a 30.2% strikeout rate, which is awfully high. You don’t often see a player pair that strikeout rate with the kind of overall success at the plate Florial is having. It’s very unique, though we are watching Judge do the same thing in the big leagues, so it’s not unprecedented. Does the strikeout rate mean Florial will fail against more advanced pitchers as he climbs the ladder? Or does the strong overall numbers indicate he will make the adjustment and cut down on the whiffs as he moves forward? This much is clear: Florial’s tools are off the charts. He’s got power from the left side of the plate, he runs well, he’s a very good center fielder, and he has a rocket arm. Based on the natural talent and overall production, Florial is a top 100 caliber prospect. I’m just not sure what that strikeout rate means. I’m more fascinated than alarmed.

 The New York Yankees and Oakland A's are reportedly discussing a trade that would send righty starting pitcher Sonny Gray to the Bronx. Outfielder Estevan Florial, 19, is rumored to be among the prospects Oakland wants in return. Let's break down whether the Yankees should be willing to part with Florial for Gray.

The A’s are in an interesting position with Gray. The 27-year-old is the unquestioned leader of their starting rotation, a former All-Star who’s really dialed it in the last few weeks. Gray would improve any staff in the majors, and probably slot in as at least a No. 2 just about anywhere. He can be that good, and he’s got another two years of team control after this one to boot.

But there’s a problem. Oakland will be sellers at the trade deadline. And Gray, a right-hander, is their best chip. Jettisoning him will be their best way to restock their farm system with young, controllable talent — kind of like what Gray used to be.

According to reports — and common sense — Oakland wants a special return for Gray. And according to FanRag’s Jon Heyman, they’re looking at center field prospects. Makes sense. Oakland lacks young talent in general. Why not aim for someone who can hit and play the most valuable position in the outfield?

Who's Florial?

 

 

The 19-year-old center fielder was one of two players — alongside righty Domingo Acevedo — that the Yankees sent to the Futures Game a couple weeks ago.

He's stood out at Low-A Charleston, even while playing alongside 2016 first-round pick Blake Rutherford, whom the Yankees sent to the White Sox last week. In 87 games, Florial has 11 homers with 41 RBI, 16 steals and .299 batting average.

Scouts rave about just about all Florial’s tools, but especially his raw power, speed and arm strength. The Dominican Republic native is expected to stick in center field for quite some time. Bench coach and outfield coordinator Rob Thomson said people he’s talked to in the organization rave about his worth ethic and professionalism for his age.

MLB.com ranks Florial the Yankees’ No. 5 overall prospect and No. 90 in the game. Baseball America has Florial at No. 71 in the league, the fifth highest-ranked current Yankees prospect on its midseason top 100 update.

Is there a match?

Well, of course. The Yankees are going for it. The A’s aren’t. One’s buying. One’s selling. Yada, yada. The Yankees want a starting pitcher and, really, they need one. With Michael Pineda (Tommy John surgery) down and Masahiro Tanaka unsteady, they can’t have just one starting pitcher — Luis Severino — that they can rely on every fifth day.

So, of course, a Florial-for-Gray deal makes sense. But the A’s will want more than than just Florial for their accomplished, young, relatively cheap, front-of-the-rotation starter. It depends how much more, though, if you’re the Yankees. The A’s have been scouring Double-A Trenton and Low-A Charleston. That means they’ve undoubtedly had their eyes on Jorge Mateo, a shortstop who’s learning center field and whom many think could end up there for a long time. In fact, on Tuesday, Gary Denbo, the Yankees’ vice president of player development, said he believes Mateo could be an elite center fielder someday.

That’s high praise, and that’s why I wouldn’t part with Florial AND Mateo in the same package for Gray. Make the second piece someone else out of pitchers Freicer Perez, Domingo Acevedo, or Jorge Guzman.