Monday, September 4, 2017

Streaming Away



Welcome back to Streaming Away, a twice weekly column serving all your fantasy streaming needs. I'll be using DFS techniques to help you select players for your normal fantasy leagues. With careful execution, you'll be one step closer to a fantasy championship. As always, the column will run on Sundays and Wednesdays to better prepare you for the thin Monday and Thursday schedules.

For more info about how and why to stream, check out the first edition of Streaming Away..



Monday, September 4

We're down to the final month of baseball. Labor Day features a full 15 game slate with nary a rain drop in the weather forecast. It's time to take a proactive approach to earning your stats.

Pitchers to Use




The stream-able pitchers section can be divided into two parts – Jake Junis and a bunch of high risk, medium reward volume arms. Junis has a soft matchup against the Tigers, a team that recently traded Justin Upton, lost Victor Martinez to injury, and will be without a suspended Miguel Cabrera. Long term, Junis is probably a reliever or spot starter. While he's had success this season, including a 4.41 ERA, 8.10 K/9, and 1.29 WHIP, his fastball-slider repertoire and spotty command don't often succeed in a rotation. The best case scenarios are Tyson Ross and Joe Ross. The slider is a true plus offering. It's possible he'll reach that upside.

The Mets and Phillies strike fear in the hearts of precisely nobody. They're sending Rafael Montero and Mark Leiter to the bump tomorrow. Montero is coming off his best outing as a professional – part of a recent hot streak in which he's produced a 2.77 ERA over 26 innings. Montero possesses below average command, although the Phillies feature enough free swingers to get away with it. Leiter looks like a long reliever with fortunate results. He has a 3.88 ERA buoyed by a high soft contact rate. It doesn't look sustainable. They're both fine gambles for this particular pairing.

Mostly because he throws hard with a decent slider and changeup, Chad Kuhl is an interesting breakout candidate for 2018. The soon-to-be 25-year-old has a 4.54 ERA, 7.82 K/9, and 4.08 BB/9. His command was much better in past seasons and could be an area where he improves in the future. In the meantime, he puts together seemingly random strong outings. He'll host the Cubs.

Luis Perdomo has eight straight appearances of between six and seven innings. You might think that means you'll get a quality start, but he's only converted half of them. I imagine he's very unlikely to earn a victory opposite Carlos Martinez. He could provide tolerable rates.

I've been waiting for Andrew Cashner to fall apart all season long. After five baffling months of success, I'll admit defeat. Cashner has a 3.30 ERA despite a 4.41 FIP and 5.21 xFIP. He allows a ton of contact (4.65 K/9 and 3.30 BB/9). He'll face an unimpressive Braves squad. Consider him to have a 30 percent chance for a win with a decent ERA and WHIP. Across the aisle, you'll find R.A. Dickey. The knuckleballer has a 2.58 ERA over his last 13 starts. The Rangers offense can be a tough opponent for right-handed pitchers. He probably also has a 30 percent chance for a win.

Pitchers to Abuse



The name you don't know tomorrow is Artie Lewicki. He'll start for the Tigers. Lewicki pitched well in Double-A and continued his success through five Triple-A starts where he posted a 2.03 ERA, 9.58 K/9 and 2.03 BB/9. The scouting report isn't very generous. He has a 92 to 94 mph fastball, an average slider, and fringy tertiary offerings. That's usually the profile of a long reliever. Lewicki may have a rude awakening in the majors due to his penchant to work within the strike zone.

Let's not over-analyze pitchers like James Shields (hosting the Indians) and Homer Bailey (hosting the Brewers). Shields has allowed 2.22 HR/9. The Indians can bop with the best of them. Bailey has allowed 1.30 HR/9. The Brewers bop too. So go get the boppers.

Enigmatic and frustrating southpaw Matt Moore is visiting Chad Bettis at Coors Field. As we know, elevation increases offensive output. Go ahead and grab anybody still floating around waivers from these offenses. You'll have better luck targeting Giants.

Chris Smith has the same strikeout and walk rates as Cashner – 4.94 K/9 and 3.23 BB/9. Unfortunately, that's where the similarities end. The soft-tossing fly ball pitcher is extremely homer prone (2.47 HR/9), although he does limit hits on balls in play. He has a luck neutral 6.27 ERA. The newly reinforce Angels should enjoy this matchup.

Marco Gonzales has a nasty habit of throwing too many hittable pitches. He's allowed 2.25 HR/9 with a .376 BABIP. The combination is ruinous. He's been tagged for a 7.07 ERA. The Astros will mash.




Hitters: Power

As is typically the case this season, you can find power aplenty on the wire. The Phillies offer an entire stack of bats. Odubel Herrera (56 percent owned) is set to return from the disabled list. He'll join Nick Williams (14 percent owned) and Cesar Hernandez (27 percent owned) atop the lineup versus Montero. Other options include Freddy Galvis, Tommy Joseph, and Jorge Alfaro. Lest you scoff at Joseph, he has four home runs and a .317/.317/.683 triple slash over his most recent 41 plate appearances. He's a streaky hitter.

Historically, Enrique Hernandez is one of the most successful hitters against Robbie Ray (small sample alert!). The two faced off last week with Ray coming away the victor. Hernandez when 0-for-4. Time for a rematch.

Lonnie Chisenhall is back from the disabled list. As noted above, Shields is extremely homer prone. Chisenhall was having a Yonder Alonso-like breakout prior to suffering an injury. We'll see if he can tap back into his power stroke.

The Athletics lineup tends to produce disappointing results. Regardless, most of the offense has the potential to help fantasy owners on any given day. Marcus Semien leads the charge as a low OBP leadoff man with power and speed. Multi-homer threats like Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, and Matt Joyce have low ownership rates. Jed Lowrie and Chad Pinder can contribute in a pinch too.

Any time you can grab a power hitter at Great American Smallpark, you should. Scott Schebler's ownership has fallen to 29 percent despite 26 home runs. He'll face Chase Anderson. Of greater interest are Keon Broxton and Neil Walker against Bailey. That's a far tastier matchup for fantasy purposes. Broxton is an all-or-nothing bat who can also steal bases. Walker has been hitting cleanup most days.

Jayson Werth has a long history of lefty mashing. He has just 33 plate appearances against southpaws this season (.240/.424/.400). Over his lengthy career, he's slashed .294/.395/.538 with the platoon advantage. Granted, the current iteration of Werth is rather old.

Other prominent bats on the wire include Jarrett Parker, Brandon Crawford, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, Stephen Piscotty, Brandon Moss, Wilmer Flores, and Dominic Smith.

Hitters: Speed




There's really only one place to go for stolen bases this Labor Day – it's the Angels offense versus a theft-prone Athletics battery. Brandon Phillips has been batting leadoff since his acquisition. He's not a rabbit in the same sense as a Billy Hamilton or Dee Gordon, but he can exploit a lax defense. Ben Revere is far more likely to run. Alas, with Justin Upton in the fold, the club doesn't have regular playing time for either runner.

Unless the Padres completely forget about him, Kolten Wong isn't really a threat to run tomorrow. He does reach base at a healthy clip - .304/.388/.443 this season. Wong is a ground ball hitter, making his matchup against worm-burning Perdomo far from ideal.

Denard Span rarely runs anymore. He has just eight steals in 14 attempts. A visit to Coors Field should help him to reach base. An actual steal attempt is unlikely – especially since nobody wants to make an out on the bases at that stadium.




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