Orioles wings clipped

Baltimore Orioles

2017 Record: 75-87

Fifth Place: AL East

Team ERA: 4.97 (27th)

Team OPS: .747 (19th)

What Went Right
A lot of things went right on the offensive side of the ledger for the Orioles during their disappointing 2017 season. Trey Mancini burst onto the scene, slashing .293/.338/.488 with 24 homers and 78 RBI in 147 games. Tim Beckham showed off his tremendous promise after being acquired from the Rays, hitting .306 with 10 homers in just 216 at-bats. Jonathan Schoop took another step forward, belting a career-best 32 home runs while crossing the 100-RBI plateau for the first time in his career. Welington Castillo performed as one of the top offensive catchers in all of baseball, hitting .282 with 20 long balls. Adam Jones had another solid all-around season, posting his highest batting average (.285) since the 2013 season. Brad Brach pitched relatively well and racked up 18 saves in the absence of the injured Zach Britton. Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman had disappointing seasons on the whole, but at least showed signs of life and should be valuable contributors in 2018.

What Went Wrong

Pitching. The Orioles didn’t do it well. Especially in the starting rotation. O’s starters as a group compiled a 5.70 ERA and 1.52 WHIP, both marks the absolute worst in all of baseball. Chris Tillman, who entered the season as the de facto ace of the O’s staff, registered a cringe-inducing 7.84 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in 93 innings. Ubaldo Jimenez posted a 6.81 ERA. Wade Miley registered a 5.61 ERA and 1.73 WHIP while losing 15 ballgames. Jeremy Hellickson was acquired in a deadline deal to bolster the rotation and he posted a 6.97 ERA over 10 starts. Zach Britton was limited to just 37 ⅓ innings due to injury, and wasn’t his usual dominant self when on the hill, registering a highly disappointing 1.53 WHIP. Chris Davis continued his free-swinging ways, whiffing 195 times in only 128 games while hitting just .215. Hyun-Soo Kim struggled mightily in 125 at-bats before being shipped to the Phillies. Mark Trumbo managed to club 23 homers, but did so while posting a minuscule .289 on-base percentage.

Fantasy Slants

** Manny Machado actually had a disappointing season from a fantasy perspective, relative to his draft day cost, but it was more being the victim of poor batted ball luck in the first half of the season. After hitting just .230/.296/.445 in the first half, Machado finished strong with a .290/.326/.500 line after the Mid-Summer Classic. He also got back to running, at least on a limited basis, swiping nine bases after being held without a successful steal in 2016. Unfortunately, he played all of his games at third base in 2017 and won’t retain his coveted shortstop eligibility heading into next season.

** It’s hard to know exactly what to make of Kevin Gausman, and it’s likely that opinions on him will vary wildly at the draft table. The 26-year-old right-hander was expected to take a step forward, perhaps assuming the mantle as the ace of the Orioles’ rotation in 2017. Instead, he stumbled to a miserable 6.39 ERA and 1.79 WHIP over 100 innings in his first 20 starts before rebounding to post a 2.70 WHIP, 1.15 WHIP and 91/27 K/BB ratio over 86 ⅔ innings in his final 14 starts.

** The health of Zach Britton was a major storyline for the Orioles in 2017 and question marks will continue to arise around him heading into next season. The normally dominant 29-year-old southpaw wasn’t sharp when he was able to take the mound, registering a very concerning 1.53 WHIP in his 37 ⅓ frames. Britton was shut down in mid-September due to continued knee soreness. When he’s healthy and on his game, he’s among the top closers in the league. His draft price should be very volatile in early drafts, at least until he has a chance to prove his health during spring training.

** Chris Davis continues to be a legitimate source of power, but with the upward trajectory of all home run totals in the league these days, those dingers just aren’t as valuable on their own. When his homers come with a .215 batting average, .310 OBP and no speed at all, it makes him a far less valuable fantasy commodity heading into 2018.

** One guy who is likely to have helium in his draft stock heading into 2018 is Jonathan Schoop. The 26-year-old blasted 32 homers and drove in 105 runs in 2017, both career highs for him. He also scored 92 runs, cementing himself in the middle of the O’s lineup in the process. While he doesn’t run, he offers strong four-category production from a surprisingly weak second base position overall.

Key Free Agents: Welington Castillo ($7 million player option), J.J. Hardy ($14 million club option, $2 million buyout), Jeremy Hellickson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Wade Miley ($12 million club option, $500,000 buyout), Seth Smith, Chris Tillman

Team Needs:

The Orioles were supposed to be a team that competed for a playoff spot and wound up finishing in the cellar in the American League East. They’ll certainly look like a different team in 2018, with Hellickson, Jimenez, Smith and Tillman likely to depart, and the O’s should also decline the options on Hardy and Miley. Rather than search on the free agent market for a new shortstop, it seems that Tim Beckham has staked his claim to that job already. Their top priority should be to sign franchise star Manny Machado to a long-term contract extension, as he’s entering his final season of arbitration. If they are unable to reach an agreement, the O’s will face a difficult decision on whether or not to trade away the face of their franchise. More importantly, the Orioles need starting pitching in the worst possible way. They’ll certainly have Bundy and Gausman in the rotation to start the season, but outside of those two, there are three spots that need to be filled either internally or from the open market. How they do on that front will go a long way to determining how competitive they’ll be as a club in 2018.