Pitching previews

Starting Pitching Projections Review

Top 25

1. Clayton Kershaw - Dodgers
Projection: 19-7, 2.08 ERA, 0.863 WHIP, 15 HR, 253/28 K/BB in 212 IP
2017 stats: 18-4, 2.31 ERA, 0.949 WHIP, 23 HR, 202/30 K/BB in 175 IP

It wasn’t quite the same Kershaw this year; after three straight years with sub-2.00 FIPs, he came in at 3.07 this year. He gave up as many homers in 175 innings as he did in 383 innings between 2015 & 2016.

2. Noah Syndergaard - Mets
Projection: 17-6, 2.65 ERA, 1.051 WHIP, 14 HR, 223/41 K/BB in 190 1/3 IP
2017 stats: 1-2, 2.97 ERA, 1.055 WHIP, 0 HR, 34/3 K/BB in 30 1/3 IP

3. Max Scherzer - Nationals
Projection: 17-9, 3.23 ERA, 1.071 WHIP, 28 HR, 255/47 K/BB in 214 2/3 IP
2017 stats: 16-6, 2.51 ERA, 0.902 WHIP, 22 HR, 268/55 K/BB in 200 2/3 IP

While most saw their home run totals rise this year, Scherzer’s fell from 31 to 22, albeit in 28 fewer innings.

4. Chris Sale - Red Sox
Projection: 17-8, 3.19 ERA, 1.050 WHIP, 24 HR, 224/39 K/BB in 205 2/3 IP
2017 stats: 17-8, 2.90 ERA, 0.970 WHIP, 24 HR, 308/43 K/BB in 214 1/3 IP

5. Jake Arrieta - Cubs
Projection: 16-9, 2.96 ERA, 1.050 WHIP, 17 HR, 198/53 K/BB in 201 IP
2017 stats: 14-10, 3.53 ERA, 1.218 WHIP, 23 HR, 163/55 K/BB in 168 1/3 IP

6. Madison Bumgarner - Giants
Projection: 16-11, 3.10 ERA, 1.078 WHIP, 24 HR, 224/47 K/BB in 218 IP
2017 stats: 4-9, 3.32 ERA, 1.090 WHIP, 17 HR, 101/20 K/BB in 111 IP

7. Corey Kluber - Indians
Projection: 16-10, 3.33 ERA, 1.083 WHIP, 26 HR, 231/45 K/BB in 216 IP
2017 stats: 18-4, 2.25 ERA, 0.869 WHIP, 21 HR, 265/36 K/BB in 203 2/3 IP

8. Kyle Hendricks - Cubs
Projection: 16-8, 3.02 ERA, 1.066 WHIP, 18 HR, 167/41 K/BB in 197 IP
2017 stats: 7-5, 3.03 ERA, 1.189 WHIP, 17 HR, 123/40 K/BB in 139 2/3 IP

Hendricks amassing a 3.03 ERA this year while throwing 86 mph was even more impressive than his 2.13 ERA in 2016, especially considering the decline in the Cubs’ defense. His velocity was a little better at the end of the year than at the beginning, but I’m still not going to be nearly this high on him again next spring. His margin for error is going to be razor thin unless he somehow gets more on his fastball.

9. Yu Darvish - Rangers/Dodgers
Projection: 15-8, 3.32 ERA, 1.132 WHIP, 23 HR, 244/61 K/BB in 190 IP
2017 stats: 10-12, 3.86 ERA, 1.163 WHIP, 27 HR, 209/58 K/BB in 186 2/3 IP

10. Jacob deGrom - Mets
Projection: 16-8, 3.22 ERA, 1.133 WHIP, 21 HR, 207/44 K/BB in 198 2/3 IP
2017 stats: 15-10, 3.53 ERA, 1.187 WHIP, 28 HR, 239/59 K/BB in 201 1/3 IP

11. Jon Lester - Cubs
Projection: 15-9, 3.24 ERA, 1.086 WHIP, 21 HR, 187/46 K/BB in 194 1/3 IP
2017 stats: 13-8, 4.33 ERA, 1.323 WHIP, 26 HR, 180/60 K/BB in 180 2/3 IP

12. Justin Verlander - Tigers/Astros
Projection: 16-11, 3.53 ERA, 1.136 WHIP, 30 HR, 222/48 K/BB in 214 IP
2017 stats: 15-8, 3.36 ERA, 1.175 WHIP, 27 HR, 219/72 K/BB in 206 IP

A 15-8 record because of those five late starts with the Astros. If he stayed with the Tigers, he’s probably 12-10 at best.

13. Stephen Strasburg - Nationals
Projection: 13-7, 3.17 ERA, 1.062 WHIP, 19 HR, 184/34 K/BB in 162 IP
2017 stats: 15-4, 2.52 ERA, 1.015 WHIP, 13 HR, 204/47 K/BB in 175 1/3 IP

He still couldn’t quite turn in a full season, but this is the closest that Strasburg has come to pitching to his full potential. His 2.72 FIP was best in the NL.

14. Johnny Cueto - Giants
Projection: 14-11, 3.35 ERA, 1.142 WHIP, 20 HR, 181/47 K/BB in 209 1/3 IP
2017 stats: 8-8, 4.52 ERA, 1.446 WHIP, 22 HR, 136/53 K/BB in 147 1/3 IP

15. Aaron Nola - Phillies
Projection: 13-9, 3.27 ERA, 1.139 WHIP, 18 HR, 184/40 K/BB in 181 2/3 IP
2017 stats: 12-11, 3.54 ERA, 1.208 WHIP, 18 HR, 184/49 K/BB in 168 IP

16. Masahiro Tanaka - Yankees
Projection: 13-9, 3.36 ERA, 1.121 WHIP, 24 HR, 163/31 K/BB in 184 2/3 IP
2017 stats: 13-12, 4.74 ERA, 1.239 WHIP, 35 HR, 194/41 K/BB in 178 1/3 IP

17. Carlos Carrasco - Indians
Projection: 13-10, 3.50 ERA, 1.138 WHIP, 23 HR, 184/41 K/BB in 185 1/3 IP
2017 stats: 18-6, 3.29 ERA, 1.095 WHIP, 21 HR, 226/46 K/BB in 200 IP

18. Carlos Martinez - Indians
Projection: 15-8, 3.24 ERA, 1.206 WHIP, 14 HR, 174/58 K/BB in 189 IP
2017 stats: 12-11, 3.64 ERA, 1.220 WHIP, 27 HR, 217/71 K/BB in 205 IP

Martinez’s home-run rate doubled from his career mark this year; he went from allowing 0.60 per nine innings to 1.19 in 2017. There still aren’t any real red flags here, though.

19. David Price - Red Sox
Projection: 12-9, 3.50 ERA, 1.120 WHIP, 21 HR, 165/33 K/BB in 169 2/3 IP
2017 stats: 6-3, 3.38 ERA, 1.192 WHIP, 8 HR, 76/24 K/BB in 74 2/3 IP

20. Gerrit Cole - Pirates
Projection: 13-8, 3.31 ERA, 1.149 WHIP, 14 HR, 167/43 K/BB in 174 IP
2017 stats: 12-12, 4.26 ERA, 1.251 WHIP, 31 HR, 196/55 K/BB in 203 IP

Cole is another one who had been really good at eluding the home run ball until this year. In fact, his spike was bigger than Martinez’s; he went from allowing 0.56 HR per nine innings to 1.37 this year. His strikeout and walk rates were strong, and apart from the homers, he allowed fewer hits than usual. I assume we’ll see some sort of rebound next year.

21. Jose Quintana - White Sox/Cubs
Projection: 13-11, 3.56 ERA, 1.166 WHIP, 23 HR, 183/44 K/BB in 205 IP
2017 stats: 11-11, 4.15 ERA, 1.224 WHIP, 23 HR, 207/61 K/BB in 188 2/3 IP

22. Lance McCullers - Astros
Projection: 12-7, 3.09 ERA, 1.192 WHIP, 12 HR, 180/59 K/BB in 154 1/3 IP
2017 stats: 7-4, 4.25 ERA, 1.298 WHIP, 8 HR, 132/40 K/BB in 118 2/3 IP

23. Matt Harvey - Mets
Projection: 12-9, 3.53 ERA, 1.153 WHIP, 21 HR, 165/33 K/BB in 176 IP
2017 stats: 5-7, 6.70 ERA, 1.694 WHIP, 21 HR, 67/47 K/BB in 92 2/3 IP

Is he still paying for throwing so many innings in 2015? We’ll never know whether that’s really the case, but things seem awfully bleak at the moment. The Mets will tender him a contract and sign him for about $5.5 million, but if he doesn’t show something in spring training, they could cut him and owe him just a quarter of the amount.

24. James Paxton - Mariners
Projection: 13-8, 3.45 ERA, 1.197 WHIP, 19 HR, 180/51 K/BB in 174 2/3 IP
2017 stats: 12-5, 2.98 ERA, 1.103 WHIP, 9 HR, 156/37 K/BB in 136 IP

25. Cole Hamels - Rangers
Projection: 15-10, 3.72 ERA, 1.211 WHIP, 25 HR, 198/58 K/BB in 205 2/3 IP
2017 stats: 11-6, 4.20 ERA, 1.203 WHIP, 18 HR, 105/53 K/BB in 148 IP  

The 6.4 K/9 IP is going to scare off a bunch of people next year. Hamels fanned 200 in 200 2/3 innings in 2016, so the decline was really sudden. His velocity drop wasn’t all that severe, but if he loses more off his fastball next year, things could get ugly in a hurry.
27. Rick Porcello - Red Sox
Projection: 15-11, 3.87 ERA, 1.150 WHIP, 28 HR, 175/38 K/BB in 214 IP
2017 stats: 11-17, 4.65 ERA, 1.397 WHIP, 38 HR, 181/48 K/BB in 203 1/3 IP

28. Chris Archer - Rays
Projection: 13-10, 3.57 ERA, 1.227 WHIP, 22 HR, 198/58 K/BB in 186 2/3 IP
2017 stats: 10-12, 4.07 ERA, 1.259 WHIP, 27 HR, 249/60 K/BB in 201 IP

29. Julio Teheran - Braves
Projection: 13-11, 3.75 ERA, 1.155 WHIP, 28 HR, 175/45 K/BB in 206 IP
2017 stats: 11-13, 4.49 ERA, 1.370 WHIP, 31 HR, 151/72 K/BB in 188 1/3 IP

30. Rich Hill - Cubs
Projection: 10-6, 3.16 ERA, 1.106 WHIP, 13 HR, 147/41 K/BB in 128 1/3 IP
2017 stats: 12-8, 3.32 ERA, 1.091 WHIP, 18 HR, 166/49 K/BB in 135 2/3 IP

34. Marcus Stroman - Blue Jays
Projection: 14-10, 3.64 ERA, 1.204 WHIP, 19 HR, 159/45 K/BB in 197 2/3 IP
2017 stats: 13-9, 3.09 ERA, 1.308 WHIP, 21 HR, 164/62 K/BB in 201 IP

Stroman’s 3.09 ERA this year came with slightly worse peripherals than his 4.37 ERA in 2016. I still feel pretty good about him going forward, but because his ERA was so good this year, he probably won’t be much of a value pick next spring.

38. Dallas Keuchel - Astros
Projection: 14-9, 3.66 ERA, 1.206 WHIP, 19 HR, 161/47 K/BB in 194 IP
2017 stats: 14-5, 2.90 ERA, 1.119 WHIP, 15 HR, 125/47 K/BB in 145 2/3 IP

43. Alex Cobb - Rays
Projection: 12-9, 3.61 ERA, 1.204 WHIP, 18 HR, 161/53 K/BB in 184 1/3 IP
2017 stats: 12-10, 3.66 ERA, 1.221 WHIP, 22 HR, 128/44 K/BB in 179 1/3 IP

45. Matt Moore - Giants
Projection: 12-11, 3.67 ERA, 1.233 WHIP, 23 HR, 183/62 K/BB in 189 IP
2017 stats: 6-15, 5.52 ERA, 1.532 WHIP, 27 HR, 148/67 K/BB in 174 1/3 IP

Matt Less.

47. Zack Greinke - Rays
Projection: 12-12, 3.90 ERA, 1.210 WHIP, 26 HR, 182/45 K/BB in 203 1/3 IP
2017 stats: 17-7, 3.20 ERA, 1.072 WHIP, 25 HR, 215/45 K/BB in 202 1/3 IP

The lesson here is never to assume you have Greinke figured out. I didn’t expect much of a rebound with his velocity and strikeout rate dipping. Well, the velocity continued to drop, yet he came up with his second biggest strikeout rate ever. Greinke’s ERA has started with a different number each of the last four years (2.71, 1.66, 4.37, 3.20).

49. Danny Duffy - Royals
Projection: 11-10, 3.89 ERA, 1.199 WHIP, 24 HR, 173/50 K/BB in 176 IP
2017 stats: 9-10, 3.81 ERA, 1.257 WHIP, 13 HR, 130/41 K/BB in 146 1/3 IP

58. Robbie Ray - Diamondbacks
Projection: 11-11, 3.86 ERA, 1.291 WHIP, 24 HR, 215/67 K/BB in 191 1/3 IP
2017 stats: 15-5, 2.89 ERA, 1.154 WHIP, 23 HR, 218/71 K/BB in 162 IP

61. Michael Wacha - Cardinals
Projection: 12-9, 3.74 ERA, 1.242 WHIP, 18 HR, 147/49 K/BB in 170 2/3 IP
2017 stats: 12-9, 4.13 ERA, 1.358 WHIP, 17 HR, 158/55 K/BB in 165 2/3 IP

67. Jharel Cotton - Athletics
Projection: 10-10, 3.90 ERA, 1.212 WHIP, 25 HR, 161/44 K/BB in 168 1/3 IP
2017 stats: 9-10, 5.58 ERA, 1.442 WHIP, 28 HR, 105/53 K/BB in 129 IP

I was high on Cotton going in, but it seems his fastball just isn’t good enough, at least not as a starter. Maybe he’d get a velocity boost in relief.

71. Tyler Glasnow - Pirates
Projection: 11-9, 3.73 ERA, 1.341 WHIP, 16 HR, 182/79 K/BB in 164 IP
2017 stats: 2-7, 7.69 ERA, 2.016 WHIP, 13 HR, 56/44 K/BB in 62 IP

Big yikes. Glasnow was lights out in Triple-A after losing his spot in the Pirates’ rotation, but when he rejoined the team in September, he just couldn’t throw strikes. Spring training will determine whether he’s worth taking a chance on next year. His ceiling remains sky-high.

74. Alex Wood - Dodgers
Projection: 9-7, 3.57 ERA, 1.238 WHIP, 14 HR, 136/45 K/BB in 141 1/3 IP
2017 stats: 16-3, 2.72 ERA, 1.057 WHIP, 15 HR, 151/38 K/BB in 152 1/3 IP

78. Sonny Gray - Athletics/Yankees
Projection: 11-10, 3.86 ERA, 1.277 WHIP, 18 HR, 141/52 K/BB in 174 2/3 IP
2017 stats: 10-12, 3.55 ERA, 1.207 WHIP, 19 HR, 153/57 K/BB in 162 1/3 IP

82. Lance Lynn - Cardinals
Projection: 11-9, 3.79 ERA, 1.323 WHIP, 16 HR, 157/64 K/BB in 178 1/3 IP
2017 stats: 11-8, 3.43 ERA, 1.229 WHIP, 27 HR, 153/78 K/BB in 186 1/3 IP

83. Hyun-Jin Ryu - Dodgers
Projection: 9-7, 3.66 ERA, 1.221 WHIP, 14 HR, 109/31 K/BB in 132 2/3 IP
2017 stats: 5-9, 3.77 ERA, 1.366 WHIP, 22 HR, 116/45 K/BB in 126 2/3 IP

84. Mike Leake - Cardinals/Mariners
Projection: 12-12, 3.94 ERA, 1.237 WHIP, 22 HR, 130/40 K/BB in 194 IP
2017 stats: 10-13, 3.92 ERA, 1.280 WHIP, 20 HR, 130/37 K/BB in 186 IP

When Leake ended May with a 2.24 ERA, it didn’t seem likely that this would go down as one of my best projections. It actually took a late rally; Leake had a 4.21 ERA for the Cardinals before he went 3-1 with a 2.53 ERA in his five starts for the Mariners.

85. Gio Gonzalez - Nationals
Projection: 11-10, 3.94 ERA, 1.290 WHIP, 18 HR, 159/59 K/BB in 171 1/3 IP
2017 stats: 15-9, 2.96 ERA, 1.179 WHIP, 21 HR, 188/79 K/BB in 201 IP

93. Zach Davies - Brewers
Projection: 11-12, 4.18 ERA, 1.233 WHIP, 25 HR, 157/47 K/BB in 187 1/3 IP
2017 stats: 17-9, 3.90 ERA, 1.354 WHIP, 20 HR, 124/55 K/BB in 191 1/3 IP

Way under in wins and WHIP. Way over in strikeouts. Somewhat over in ERA. Davies was about as effective as expected, but this looks like it should be a projection for a totally different pitcher.

97. Dylan Bundy - Orioles
Projection: 9-9, 4.21 ERA, 1.269 WHIP, 22 HR, 149/48 K/BB in 147 1/3 IP
2017 stats: 13-9, 4.24 ERA, 1.196 WHIP, 26 HR, 152/51 K/BB in 169 2/3 IP

98. Dan Straily - Marlins
Projection: 11-12, 4.23 ERA, 1.270 WHIP, 26 HR, 164/62 K/BB in 187 1/3 IP
2017 stats: 10-9, 4.26 ERA, 1.299 WHIP, 31 HR, 170/60 K/BB in 181 2/3 IP

102. Jhoulys Chacin - Padres
Projection: 10-11, 3.95 ERA, 1.306 WHIP, 19 HR, 148/61 K/BB in 180 IP
2017 stats: 13-10, 3.89 ERA, 1.270 WHIP, 19 HR, 153/72 K/BB in 180 1/3 IP

A sneaky good season from Chacin. He worked for $1.75 million for the Padres this year. I wouldn’t want to give him a multiyear deal as a free agent this winter, but he should be in line for a rather nice salary on a one-year deal.

104. Luke Weaver - Cardinals
Projection: 8-7, 3.97 ERA, 1.227 WHIP, 18 HR, 115/31 K/BB in 133 2/3 IP
2017 stats: 7-2, 3.88 ERA, 1.260 WHIP, 7 HR, 72/17 K/BB in 60 1/3 IP

107. Trevor Bauer - Indians
Projection: 11-12, 4.33 ERA, 1.301 WHIP, 26 HR, 175/67 K/BB in 191 1/3 IP
2017 stats: 17-9, 4.19 ERA, 1.367 WHIP, 25 HR, 196/60 K/BB in 176 1/3 IP

114. Luis Severino - Yankees
Projection: 9-10, 4.25 ERA, 1.285 WHIP, 24 HR, 150/50 K/BB in 167 1/3 IP
2017 stats: 14-6, 2.98 ERA, 1.040 WHIP, 21 HR, 230/51 K/BB in 193 1/3 IP

122. Jose Berrios - Twins
Projection: 8-9, 4.21 ERA, 1.303 WHIP, 21 HR, 143/48 K/BB in 147 1/3 IP
2017 stats: 14-8, 3.89 ERA, 1.229 WHIP, 15 HR, 139/48 K/BB in 145 2/3 IP

135. Ervin Santana - Twins
Projection: 10-13, 4.41 ERA, 1.312 WHIP, 28 HR, 157/55 K/BB in 193 2/3 IP
2017 stats: 16-8, 3.28 ERA, 1.126 WHIP, 31 HR, 167/61 K/BB in 211 1/3 IP

140. CC Sabathia - Yankees
Projection: 9-11, 4.39 ERA, 1.304 WHIP, 25 HR, 130/56 K/BB in 168 IP
2017 stats: 14-5, 3.69 ERA, 1.271 WHIP, 21 HR, 120/50 K/BB in 148 2/3 IP

I wouldn’t have imagined back in 2014 that Sabathia would still be a quality pitcher in 2017. That said, while he just posted his best ERA since 2012, his 4.49 FIP wasn’t so impressive. He’s not someone who typically outpitches his FIP, either; in fact, his career ERA and FIP are both right at 3.70.

146. Jimmy Nelson - Brewers
Projection: 9-12, 4.40 ERA, 1.343 WHIP, 22 HR, 152/61 K/BB in 172 IP
2017 stats: 12-6, 3.49 ERA, 1.249 WHIP, 16 HR, 199/48 K/BB in 175 1/3 IP

177. Chase Anderson - Brewers
Projection: 7-11, 4.65 ERA, 1.327 WHIP, 25 HR, 121/45 K/BB in 153 IP
2017 stats: 12-4, 2.74 ERA, 1.090 WHIP, 14 HR, 133/41 K/BB in 141 1/3 IP

An extra two mph on his fastball did wonders for Anderson.

185. Mike Clevinger - Indians
Projection: 5-6, 4.52 ERA, 1.375 WHIP, 14 HR, 88/37 K/BB in 91 2/3 IP
2017 stats: 12-6, 3.11 ERA, 1.249 WHIP, 13 HR, 137/60 K/BB in 121 2/3 IP

188. German Marquez - Rockies
Projection: 5-5, 4.39 ERA, 1.360 WHIP, 13 HR, 79/26 K/BB in 96 1/3 IP
2017 stats: 11-7, 4.39 ERA, 1.377 WHIP, 25 HR, 147/49 K/BB in 162 IP

289. Brad Peacock - Astros
Projection: 5-8, 4.77 ERA, 1.438 WHIP, 16 HR, 95/43 K/BB in 105 2/3 IP
2017 stats: 13-2, 3.00 ERA, 1.189 WHIP, 10 HR, 161/57 K/BB in 132 IP

301. Matt Garza - Brewers
Projection: 6-10, 4.83 ERA, 1.404 WHIP, 19 HR, 93/42 K/BB in 130 1/3 IP
2017 stats: 6-9, 4.94 ERA, 1.448 WHIP, 17 HR, 79/45 K/BB in 114 2/3 IP

Because I have to wrap this up on a good one, of course.