Vlad the Clobbering Giant

I just wrote about Vladimir Guerrero Jr. last week, but how can I not do it again? The 19-year-old homered twice for Double-A New Hampshire on Monday. He’s batting .500 in his last 10 games, and he’s up to a ridiculous .398/.453/.673 overall, with as many walks as strikeouts (12) in his 90 at-bats. The Jays, meanwhile, continue to get very little from Kendrys Morales, and though Josh Donaldson homered in his first two games back from the DL, he still seems a little off. I’m still not sure what the correct play is here for the Jays, but it has to be awfully tempting to give him a shot, even though it’d interfere with his development at third base. It’d probably just mean releasing Morales, but I don’t see the harm in that. Let Guerrero play third a couple of times per week and DH the rest of the time. If it doesn’t work out, the Jays would still be better off with Teoscar Hernandez and Randal Grichuk in the outfield corners and Curtis Granderson and Steve Pearce forming a DH platoon than they are worrying about Morales getting at-bats.

- Roberto Osuna’s status is highly uncertain after he was arrested for assault on Monday night. Given the lack of any sort of details, it’s pretty much impossible to speculate on when he might pitch again. What does have to be speculated on, given that this is a fantasy baseball column, is who might replace him in the closer’s role for Toronto. What initially looked like a weak setup corps, especially with Joe Biagini being treated as a starter, has been excellent this season, with Tyler Clippard, John Axford, Seung-hwan Oh, Danny Barnes (currently in Triple-A) and Ryan Tepera sporting ERAs ranging from 1.47 to 2.70. Purely from a performance standpoint, I like Barnes best in the group. Still, he doesn’t figure to join the saves mix right away… he’s not even in the majors at the moment. I’d rank them Tepera, Oh and then Clippard as fantasy pickups. Tepera has been working the eighth in front of Osuna, which is why I presume he has the edge. However, he has given up four homers already, including two in his last two appearances. I like Oh to outpitch Tepera. His stuff is down from two years ago, but he’s still getting strikeouts and he won’t fall victim to walks. I think he’s the more trustworthy option.

- Aledmys Diaz’s ankle sprain means that Lourdes Gurriel will serve as the Jays’ starting shortstop for at least the next 10 days. Not a whole lot should be expected there; Gurriel hasn’t embarrassed himself since his surprise callup, but he would benefit from some Triple-A time.

- Everyone is trying to put Manny Machado on another team, but I’m not sure we’re any closer to a workable deal than we were in the offseason. The Orioles still have sky-high expectations even though we’re talking about a player who is now just five months away from free agency. They can and should argue that Machado is hitting like a superstar for the first time in his career, which is certainly true. But now the team that acquires him won’t even get a draft pick if he leaves in free agency. I just don’t see any of the usual suspects out there desperate enough to give up their best young talent for a rental. The most interesting scenario would be if an upstart contender decided to go for it. The Braves and Phillies shouldn’t trade for Machado now, but if things are still looking good in 6-8 weeks, maybe they go for it then. I don’t think we’ll see a resolution anytime soon anyway.

- The Yankees could activate Brandon Drury (migraines) at any moment, and Greg Bird (ankle) has started playing in extended spring games, putting him on track to join the team in a couple of weeks. It’s going to make for a very crowded Yankees infield. Neil Walker finally seems to be finding his stroke, but one wonders if his roster spot might be in jeopardy soon. Tyler Austin has produced, but he’ll probably be sent down anyway. Gleyber Torres is locked into a starting spot, but the Yankees do have the option of shifting him to third if Miguel Andujar continues to slump. It’ll be interesting to see how they handle things. The Yankees will only have to shed one infielder -- presumably Austin -- if they’re willing to drop down to 12 pitchers. However, in order to stick with 13 pitchers, it seems either Walker or Andujar would have to go to make room for Bird.

- Kole Calhoun was held out of the Angels lineup for a third straight game Tuesday and will likely sit again Wednesday against a left-hander. Already coming off a disappointing 2017, he’s hit just .167/.195/.211 with two extra-base hits and a 33/4 K/BB ratio in 118 plate appearances this year. The interesting thing is that FanGraphs has his hard-hit percentage at a career-high 39.5. His exit velocity is below average, but not as horrible as the numbers suggest. However, he’s hitting a ton of grounders, most of them pulled into the shift, and when he does get the ball in the air, he’s going the other way and he’s not strong enough to hit the ball out of the yard to left. He’s in need of a serious retooling, and it doesn’t look like much fantasy value is in store for him. The real shame of it is that he had the potential to benefit from the move to drop the fence in right more than any other Angels hitter.

- The Angels are about to get Keynan Middleton back from his elbow injury. I don’t know that I’d want to count on him staying healthy with the way the Angels are treating him, but it figures that he’ll regain the closer’s role in short order.

- Despite walking six and hitting two batters in 11 2/3 innings, Twins right-hander Fernando Romero went his first two major league starts without allowing a run. It’s hard to see why his minor league strikeout rates weren’t better given the movement on his 94-98 mph fastball and slider. That’s not to say they were bad; they just weren’t exceptional (he fanned 22% of the batters he faced in Double-A last year and 23 percent in Triple-A to begin this season). Walks are likely to remain a problem, but he should induce enough grounders and miss enough bats to make up for them. There’s quite a bit to like here, as long as the control doesn’t abandon him.

- Logan Morrison’s season stats are still unappealing, but he’s hit .267/.343/.517 with four homers and 11 RBI in his last 17 games, and the Twins just moved him up from seventh to first in the lineup for Tuesday’s game. I still think he’s likely to possess solid mixed-league value this year.

- The Rangers got Adrian Beltre back on Tuesday and could activate Rougned Odor on Friday. Unfortunately, Willie Calhoun still isn’t making much of a push for the roster -- he’s hitting .252/.319/.374 in Triple-A -- so it looks like Ronald Guzman will get a little while longer to try to establish himself at first base. One still imagines the Rangers would prefer having Joey Gallo at first base, rather than in left field, if all else is equal, and Guzman is sporting just a .194/.254/.330 line in 18 games since his callup.

The Matt Harvey-for-Devin Mesoraco trade probably won’t amount to much, but it is kind of fun. It’s unfortunate for Harvey that he’ll now have to try to resuscitate his career in Cincinnati instead of San Francisco, which had looked like the leading suitor. Harvey has been a flyball pitcher with a below average strikeout rate since returning from thoracic outlet surgery, and that’s a bad combination in a home run park like Cincinnati’s. I wouldn’t have wagered on him succeeding with the Giants, either, but it certainly would have been a better situation given his currently below average stuff. It’s still a worthy gamble for the Reds; Mesoraco wasn’t part of the future, and if Harvey does somehow bounce back, he could be traded at a significant profit in July.
Mesoraco should be much happier, given that he’s looking at quite a bit more playing time for a better team in New York. Still, it’s hard to say if either his body or his bat is up for a starter’s workload; he’s hit .214/.314/.379 with seven homers in 182 at-bats the last two years. If I were hurting for a second catcher in two-catcher mixed leagues, I’d consider taking a flier. Still, expectations should be modest. Any chance of him recapturing his past offensive form for any significant length of time would likely hinge on him giving up catching.

- Braves youngsters Lucas Sims and Max Fried have spent this season alternating between starting in Triple-A and mopping up in the majors, eating into their development process because the Braves don’t want to employ a true innings-eating middle reliever. Now 21-year-old Luiz Gohara, who was expected to make the Braves rotation before getting hurt this spring, is up to pitch out of the bullpen, something he’s never done outside of the Arizona Fall League a couple of years ago. Gohara is a big talent, but he had struggled in his rehab assignment, especially in his last two starts (10 earned runs, seven walks in 8 1/3 innings). I think he’ll have mixed-league value as a starter later this year, but I’d much rather see him pitch six innings every five days in the minors right now than work an inning or two in eight-run games for the Braves.

- Luis Urias is hitting .305/.431/.463 with more walks (19) than strikeouts (18) for Triple-A El Paso, and the Padres should be thinking about swapping him in for Carlos Asuaje at second base. Since he’s not a stolen base threat, Urias isn’t nearly the fantasy prospect that he is a real prospect. However, he offers great contact ability with real patience at the plate and doubles power. He’s going to be a quality regular in the majors, and even though he’s just 21, he’s probably already the Padres’ best option at second.

- The Brewers are looking for a boost up the middle and appeared to be weighing promoting prospect Mauricio Dubon before he injured his knee in a game for Triple-A Colorado Springs on Saturday. Unfortunately, he’s now out for the year with a torn ACL. Veteran Nick Franklin wound up with that promotion instead. The utilityman was hitting .288/.394/.441 in Double-A, but he’s lacking when it comes to defense at second and short. He’ll get some of the at-bats that had been going to Eric Sogard, but I’m not sure it makes much sense to play him over Jonathan Villar. It might not matter now anyway, as he left Tuesday’s game with a leg injury.

- The Brewers are getting closer Corey Knebel (hamstring) back Wednesday. Josh Hader should maintain some mixed-league value, though.

- Jose Martinez is legit as a serious offensive threat, but I still wonder exactly how much that offensive boost is helping the Cardinals when it means sitting Jedd Gyorko and playing Matt Carpenter at third or second. Carpenter hasn’t acquitted himself too badly at his old positions, but he is a downgrade from Gyorko and Kolten Wong, and Martinez might be an even bigger downgrade from Carpenter at first. Considering that Gyorko, the Cardinals’ second most valuable player by WAR last year, is none too shabby with the bat himself, I would think something will give eventually. Maybe it’s actually Carpenter who should lose the playing time; I’m not giving up on him by any means, but someone has to be the weakest link.

- Of course, it’s a little more difficult for the Cardinals to give up offense now that they’ve lost Yadier Molina (groin) for a month. Carson Kelly was so shaky defensively this spring that the Cards went away from the original plan to carry him as a backup, choosing journeyman defensive specialist Francisco Pena instead, and Kelly failed to tear it up back in Triple-A, hitting .234/.337/.364 in 21 games. Now Pena has been chosen to start two of the three games since Molina went down, and that’s not much different than having two pitchers in the lineup.

- David Dahl was on the Rockies’ bench again Tuesday. That makes some sense against a left-hander, but on Friday, he was off against a right-hander, meaning he’s started just one of the last four games. Even though he’s struck out 17 times, he’s still hitting .300/.349/.500 in 40 at-bats since his callup. Unfortunately, it’s just so risky to give up on Rockies hitters no matter how badly the team mangles every situation it’s presented with offensively. Gerardo Parra is playing better of late, but he’s still Gerardo Parra (career 93 OPS+). Ian Desmond has stepped it up, too, but he’s still Ian Desmond (career 96 OPS+). In the end, both players are going to finish up with production well short of what should be expected from left fielders and first basemen, and the Rockies will be too blinded by Coors Field and the occasional hot streak to notice. Maybe Dahl (career 113 OPS+ in 262 AB) isn’t as much of an upgrade as I hope he will be -- the plate discipline really is an issue -- but how do you not give him every opportunity, especially when he’s been an asset to date?

- The Dodgers outfield is about to get crowded again with Yasiel Puig (hip, foot) set to come off the disabled list. Matt Kemp has yet to slow down and Joc Pederson is currently rocking an OBP in the .400 range, so it could be that Alex Verdugo will be sent down, if not immediately then in the relatively near future. Verdugo has looked plenty solid himself, but it doesn’t make sense to put Pederson back on the bench and the 22-year-old Verdugo is better off playing regularly in the minors than serving as a major league reserve. The Dodgers can just demote Tim Locastro initially if they’d prefer, but that’d be a temporary fix.

- I’m skeptical that Alen Hanson will keep hitting for the Giants, but he does have quite a bit to offer in the steal department, making him a short-term option in mixed leagues.

- After sitting out against several righties recently, Ian Happ will get a few games to try to regain a foothold while Jason Heyward is absent due to a concussion. He’s hit .289 with three homers and seven RBI in just 38 at-bats since April 21.