Bangers Dingers and Homers

Krush Davis

By the way, he hit number 40 yesterday.

September baseball tends to create some pretty magnificent opportunities for power hitters. Many veteran pitchers are exhausted or pitching hurt. On non-contending rosters, they’ll sit in favor of hungry, fringy minor league call ups. Don’t be surprised when somebody completely unexpected hits 10 home runs this month. We’ll try to identify some candidates today and in the coming weeks via the Power Spotlight.


Weekly Leaders

Christian Yelich, 4 HR
Matt Chapman, 4 HR
Franmil Reyes, 4 HR
Manny Machado, 4 HR
Tyler Austin, 4 HR

Five players popped four home runs apiece. Six other supplied a trio of big flies. The headliner is Yelich who we discussed last week for the exact same feat. The previous column complemented Yelich for his athleticism and steady performance. He’s definitely received a boost from escaping Marlins Stadium. After eight home runs in two weeks, he’s now well on his way to a 30 home run campaign. Very little has changed about his batted ball profile. The only difference is that he’s making considerably more hard contact – 47.9 percent. This has led to a Stantonian 32.5 percent HR/FB ratio. Since only 22 percent of his contact is a fly ball, he only projects for five more home runs.

Chapman has quietly had one of the best overall seasons. By Fan Graphs Wins Above Replacement , he’s tied for fifth in the league with 6.3 wins. Much of his value is defensive. However, his bat hasn’t let down fantasy owners either. Multiple improvements in plate discipline and contact rate have produced a quality .364 OBP with 22 home runs. He’ll need a fiery September to reach 30 home runs, but it’s not entirely out of reach.

Machado hardly needs an introduction in this column; he’s spent a big chunk of the season with a top 10 home run projection. This recent outburst has him up to 33 homers, tied sixth with Giancarlo Stanton and Nelson Cruz. The 26-year-old couldn’t have asked for a better platform year heading into free agency.

Combined with his 16 home runs at Triple-A, Reyes now has 29 home runs in just 433 plate appearances. The Padres outfield depth chart remains a long term problem for him. Because he wasn’t a highly touted prospect like teammates Manuel Margot and Hunter Renfroe, it’s natural for him to slip into a part time role. For the rest of this season, he should receive regular starts because Wil Myers has shifted to third base.  Strikeouts remain a huge problem for Reyes. He gives away over 30 percent of his plate appearances.

Austin is also incredibly strikeout prone – he has a 36.7 percent strikeout rate this year. His performance this season is remarkably similar to Reyes. Between Triple-A and the majors, Austin has 24 home runs in only 344 plate appearances. His success depends upon a ludicrous 38.5 percent HR/FB ratio. Not even J.D. Martinez can sustain that rate. Austin is no Martinez. Still, he’s a decent source for power in the right matchups – as he proved this week.

My Top 10 Projected Home Run Leaders

J.D. Martinez, Boston Red Sox: 39 HR, 46 HR projected
Khris Davis, Oakland Athletics: 39 HR, 46 HR projected
Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Indians: 37 HR, 44 HR projected
Matt Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals: 35 HR, 42 HR projected
Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees, 33 HR, 41 HR projected
Joey Gallo, Texas Rangers: 34 HR, 41 HR projected
Nelson Cruz, Seattle Mariners: 33 HR, 40 HR projected
Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels: 31 HR, 39 HR projected
Manny Machado, Los Angeles Dodgers: 33 HR, 39 HR projected
Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies: 31 HR, 37 HR projected

With only a month left in the season, it should come as no surprise that 10 of the top 11 current home run leaders also project to finish with the most taters. The home run crown is a race between Martinez and Davis with Ramirez just one hot week from joining the fray. At the back end of the list, seven players have hit 30 or 31 home runs. They’re all fighting for two spots in the top 10 – and one of those is Mike Trout. Paul Goldschmidt and Bryce Harper are the most likely to sneak into the top 10. Harper was bumped by Machado this week.

Disabled

***Albert Pujols, Los Angeles Angels (knee surgery – out for season)
***Eddie Rosario, Minnesota Twins (strained quad – not on DL)
Marcell Ozuna, St. Louis Cardinals (right shoulder inflammation)
Mark Trumbo, Baltimore Orioles (right knee inflammation – out for season)
Christian Villanueva, San Diego Padres (fractured right middle finger –out for season)
Justin Bour, Philadelphia Phillies (left oblique strain)
Jose Abreu, Chicago White Sox (abdominal surgery)
Didi Gregorius, New York Yankees (left heel contusion)
Yangervis Solarte, Toronto Blue Jays (right oblique)
Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox (left hamstring strain)
Jake Lamb, Arizona Diamondbacks (frayed rotator cuff – out for season)
Jesse Winker, Cincinnati Reds (shoulder subluxation – out for season)
Yoenis Cespedes, New York Mets (calcified heels – out for season)
Clint Frazier, New York Yankees (post-concussion syndrome)
Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (chip fracture in right wrist)
Zack Cozart, Los Angeles Angels (torn labrum – out for season)
Lonnie Chisenhall, Cleveland Indians (calf strain)
Jorge Soler, Kansas City Royals (fractured foot)
Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers (ruptured biceps tendon – out for season)
Josh Donaldson, Cleveland Indians (calf strain)
Franchy Cordero, San Diego Padres (forearm strain)
Corey Seager, Los Angeles Dodgers (TJS – out for season)
***denotes new injury

With expanded rosters upon us, injured players are less likely to go on the disabled list. For example, Eddie Rosario suffered a quad injury a couple days ago that might have merited a DL-stint earlier in the year. He’s not expected to play until at least September 7. I’ll do my best to keep up with these phantom injuries. Pujols is the only meaningful power hitter to suffer a new injury. He’s out for the season after knee surgery. When we last met, Trumbo was considering season-ending knee surgery too. He decided to do it.

Three players returned from the disabled list in the last week – Justin Upton, Brandon Nimmo, and Joey Votto. Kris Bryant and Gary Sanchez are scheduled to be activated today. Devers, Gregorius, Ozuna, and Frazier are also on the cusp of returning. They might be used sparingly at first.

Power Spotlight

Billy McKinney was thrice traded during his minor league career. First, the Athletics sent him with Addison Russell and Dan Straily for Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel. Then, Chicago tossed him in with Gleyber Torres and two others for Aroldis Chapman. Finally, the Yankees packaged him with Brandon Drury for a rental of J.A. Happ. It’s rare for a prospect to be involved in so many high profile trades.

Since the Blue Jays activated him a couple weeks ago, McKinney is batting .395/.478/.763 with three home runs in 46 plate appearances. Part of his success can be traced to a fluky .462 BABIP. He’s also faced quite a few terrible pitchers. However, there are some positive signs in the profile too. Since the start of the 2017 season, McKinney has shown a penchant for hitting fly balls. With a decent contact rate, above average plate discipline, and enough hard contact, he could take advantage of the tiny AL East venues. Twenty home runs over a full season are not out of the question. And until major league pitchers adjust to his current approach, he may continue his hot-hitting ways. McKinney bats leadoff most days. Ride the wave. He’s only 9 percent owned.

I’ll also have my eye on Jackie Bradley Jr. this month. Although his season-long stats are hideous, the streaky lefty is batting a robust .290/.347/.514 since June 24 – a sample of 202 plate appearances. He’s been known to go on power binges and could benefit from visits to Yankee Stadium and Progressive Field. Upcoming opponents like the Blue Jays and Orioles have laughable pitching staffs.