Tuesday, September 4, 2018

Let's tell a Story




Trevor Story failed last season to build upon his impressive rookie year. He’s seemed determined this season to make sure the next chapter has a happy ending.

Story continued his monster 2018 campaign on Monday, smashing a pair of home runs and driving in five runs as the Rockies edged out the Giants. He also added a stolen base as a nice cherry on top for his fantasy owners.

It was Story’s fourth straight multi-hit game and fifth multi-hit showing in his last six efforts. His average on the season is now up to .295, which is the highest it’s been all year. The shortstop is sitting on 28 home runs and 23 stolen bases, both career highs.

The 23 steals are certainly a surprise given that he swiped a total of 15 over his first two seasons combined. However, Story has always ran very well and compiled three straight 20-steal seasons in the minors and did so at an efficient rate. So, it’s not as if that part of his game totally came out of nowhere. He’s been running more and more as the season has gone along, going 10-for-11 in stolen base attempts over his last 27 games.

The power he’s showing is nothing new, of course. Since the beginning of the 2016 season, among players with at least 1,000 plate appearances, only Aaron Judge, Joey Gallo, J.D. Martinez and Matt Carpenter have a higher hard-hit rate than Story’s 43.4 percent mark (going into Monday’s game). He ranks 11th with a 45.7 percent fly ball rate over that span when you attach the same qualifiers. It’s a pretty good combo to have when you call Coors Field home.

Perhaps the biggest key to Story’s season has been the improvement in his contact rate. Yes, his 25.5 percent strikeout rate is still relatively high when compared to the entire league, but it’s a massive step forward from the 33.1 percent rate he had in his first two seasons. A good average looks sustainable when your 25.5 percent whiff rate is paired with a 44.9 percent hard-hit rate and you play in Denver.

We also can’t discount health being a key factor here. Story’s 2016 season ended with thumb surgery and it’s possible it contributed to his slow start to 2017. He got better as the season went on, posting a .834 OPS in the second half after a .699 first-half OPS.

I will be interested to see how high Story ultimately goes in drafts next spring

Williams Keeps Rolling

Quick, guess who leads the majors in ERA since the All-Star break. Jacob deGrom? Nope. Aaron Nola? Try again.

OK, this could take a while so I’ll just tell you. It’s Trevor Williams.

To this point Williams might be known more for his exploits on Twitter than his pitching, but the 26-year-old is doing his best to change that. He shut out the Reds for 6 2/3 innings on Monday, limiting them to five hits, a walk and a hit by pitch while striking out four. The Pirates won 5-1 and Williams improved his record to 12-9.

Williams’ ERA since the All-Star break now sits at 0.72. If you go back to his last outing prior to the break, his ERA comes in at 0.66 across his last nine starts. He’s managed to lower his season ERA from 4.60 all the way down to 3.15, which ranks ninth in the National League.

The right-hander doesn’t possess wipe out stuff. He’s striking out just 6.1 batters per nine innings this season, which ranks 63rd among 70 qualifiers. The lack of bat-missing ability will cause some fantasy owners to dismiss Williams even as he’s in the midst of this incredible run, and it’s certainly true that it limits his upside.

However, what Williams has going for him is an ability to avoid hard contact. Going into Monday’s outing, his hard-hit rate was at 30.9 percent, which ranks 14th in baseball. Limiting hard-hit balls isn’t something new for Williams, either. His 30 percent hard-hit rate since entering the league in 2016 ranks 24th among 119 pitchers with at least 300 innings pitched. That puts him right behind Chris Sale and right ahead of Clayton Kershaw.

Williams will take on the Marlins at PNC Park this weekend. Giddy up.

Donaldson Back to DL

The Indians made a splash when they acquired Josh Donaldson from the Blue Jays last Friday in time for him to be eligible for the postseason roster. However, it’s going to be a little longer before we see him on the active regular season roster after he was placed back on the disabled list Monday.

"We had multiple conversations, multiple meetings with medical people and with Josh," manager Terry Francona said. "Just felt like to put him in the best position to succeed … we felt like him playing a handful of games would put him in the best position to be healthy, where he could come back and play maybe back-to-back and play multiple games."

Donaldson resumed a rehab assignment Monday, this time with Triple-A Columbus, and belted a grand slam in one of his three plate appearances while playing six innings at third base. He’s now homered in back-to-back rehab games and gone 5-for-12 with seven RBI and a 0/3 K/BB ratio over five rehab contests.

The plan is for Donaldson to return to Cleveland Tuesday to continue rehabbing his left calf and getting in a workout out before joining Double-A Akron later this week. He will be eligible for activation on September 11 in Tampa, and Francona said Monday that it's "definitely the hope" to get the former MVP back at that time.

With a commanding 14-game lead in the American League Central, the Indians can afford to proceed cautiously with Donaldson, as the goal ultimately is for him to be healthy for the postseason. He will take over as the Tribe’s everyday third baseman, with Jose Ramirez shifting to second base and Jason Kipnis moving to center field.


American League Quick Hits: Aaron Judge (wrist) has resumed swinging a bat and took swings off a tee on Monday … Ryan O'Hearn belted two home runs Monday in the Royals' victory over the Indians … Marcus Stroman struggled in his return from the DL Monday and Blue Jays manager John Gibbons said after the start that the righty’s blister is "clearly affecting him" … Jake Junis allowed just two hits over seven shutout innings Monday in the Royals' defeat of the Indians … Francisco Lindor singled and launched his 30th home run of the season Monday in the Indians' loss to the Royals … Eddie Rosario (quad) did some light running and took a few swings in the batting cage Monday but missed a fourth straight game … Matt Davidson walked and slugged a walk-off, two-run homer Monday versus the Tigers … David Price (wrist) is expected to rejoin the Red Sox’ rotation on Friday … Reynaldo Lopez pitched seven innings of one-run ball and whiffed six in a no-decision against the Tigers on Monday … Justin Upton (concussion) remained out of the Angels' lineup Monday … Matt Shoemaker fired five scoreless innings in a no-decision against the Rangers on Monday in his first start back from the DL … Michael Fulmer was lifted from Monday's start against the White Sox with a right shin contusion but is expected to be OK for his next outing … White Sox general manager Rick Hahn said Monday that the club has discussed the possibility of shutting Avisail Garcia (knee) down for the remainder of the season … Marwin Gonzalez was forced to exit Monday's game with right oblique discomfort … The Red Sox will call up Brandon Phillips from Triple-A Pawtucket on Tuesday …

National League Quick Hits: Franmil Reyes went 2-for-3 with a pair of home runs and four RBI to power the Padres to a win over the Diamondbacks on Monday … Adam Frazier went 4-for-4 with a home run and three RBI in the Pirates' win over the Reds on Monday … Jacob deGrom struck out six over six frames of one-run ball in a no-decision versus the Dodgers on Monday … The Dodgers are considering holding Kenley Jansen (heart) out of this weekend's series in Colorado as a precaution … Anthony Rizzo went 3-for-4 and hit a two-run homer Monday against the Brewers … Bryce Harper tied Monday's game versus the Cardinals with a two-run homer in the ninth inning and won it with a sacrifice fly in the 10thJose Urena struck out seven while firing seven innings of one-run ball in a win over the Phillies on Monday … Scooter Gennett doubled and swatted a solo home run Monday in Pittsburgh … Max Scherzer fanned 11 but was saddled with a no-decision Monday, allowing three runs over seven frames in the Nationals' comeback win over the Cardinals … Cardinals manager Mike Shildt was noncommittal when asked whether Bud Norris was still his closer following a second straight poor performance by Norris on Monday … Brandon Belt sat out Monday with a sore right knee … Zach Davies fanned seven over five frames of one-run ball against the Cubs in his return from the DL Monday … Yairo Munoz went 3-for-4 with a solo home run Monday versus the Nationals … Maikel Franco missed a second straight start Monday because of a right wrist injury … Mike Dunn is expected to undergo season-ending surgery on his left shoulder sometime in the next couple of weeks … Adam Wainwright (elbow) will make his return to the Cardinals' rotation next Monday against the Pirates … 

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