More Toronto Blue Jays ‘Off season Targets’:
Edwin Encarnación
Dallas Keuchel
David Price
Justin Smoak
Zack Wheeler
Wade Miley
Next up, Japanese first baseman/left fielder Yoshitomo Tsutsugo.
Over the past several years, Yoshitomo Tsutsugo has been among the preeminent sluggers in Japanese baseball. But after 10 seasons playing in Nippon Professional Baseball, Tsutsugo wants to play in North America. Earlier this month, the 28-year-old, lefty slugger was made available to all 30 MLB clubs via the Japanese posting process.
How the posting system works: Any MLB team is free to sign him by paying a fee to his current team, the Yokohama DeNA Bay Stars. Teams have until 5 p.m. ET Dec. 19 to agree to terms.
Tsutsugo debuted for Yokohama in 2010 at 18 but played only three games that season. By 2014, he was a full-time player appearing in 114 games and batting .300/.373/.529 with 22 home runs. In every season since then, he’s hit at least 22 home runs, including 44 in 2016 when he led the league. Tsutsugo is now the captain of his club, a respected teammate and a popular face of the franchise. He’s also represented Japan on the international stage, including at the 2017 World Baseball Classic.
Off the field, calling for less tournament-style play and stricter pitch limits to protect young arms.
After the Bay Stars were eliminated in the 2019 playoffs, Tsutsugo announced his intention to play in MLB. Over his 10-year career in Japan, Tsutsugo has hit .285 with a .910 OPS and 205 home runs. As for the rest of his game, he’s not known for his baserunning skills, thanks to his stocky, 6-foot, 210-pound build. Defensively, he’s spent most of his time in left field, but he also has experience at first and third base. He’s not considered a plus-defender at any position.
Naturally, there are questions surrounding Tsutsugo’s possible move to the majors: Will his power translate? How will he fare facing more elite pitching? What position will he play?
His raw power is intriguing, so while he’s a bit of a wild card, he’ll have no shortage of off-season suitors, including perhaps Toronto.
Tsutsugo’s 2019 in review:
Statistically, this past season was Tsutsugo’s least productive since 2013. In 131 games (557 PAs), he slashed .272/.388/.511, although he still hit 29 home runs, and posted an above-average 15.8 percent walk rate. However, he stuck out more than usual — 141 times — with a career-worst strikeout rate of 25.3 percent.
Defensively, Tsutsugo moved from left field to third base for the first time since 2014 after the Bay Stars’ regular third baseman broke his finger in August. And while he wasn’t elite at the hot corner, Tsutsugo was serviceable, according to Jim Allen, who has written about Japanese baseball for more than two decades and currently writes for Kyodo News.
“It’s not that he could play it OK, but it didn’t bother his offence at all,” Allen said.
Following the season, after the second-place Bay Stars were upset in the first round of the playoffs by the third-place Hanshin Tigers, Tsutsugo was emotional — not only because of the loss, but also due to the fact he had likely played his last game of Japanese baseball.
Here’s what teammate Spencer Patton, a relief pitcher with the Bay Stars since 2017, told The Athletic about his captain.
“He felt as the leader of the team, and us getting beat out in the first round of the playoffs, he felt responsibility to stay and help the team win a championship,” said Patton, who made 52 appearances in the majors between 2014-16, before moving overseas. “But he said he wanted to come over to the States and try to get better and try to compete with the best players in the world. I think it’s about testing his skills and proving that he can do it — to himself and to everyone else. I think that’s ultimately why anybody pursues Major League Baseball; to say that you got a chance to compete with the best players in the world.”
Quote that best sums up Tsutsugo’s 2019:
“Of course, it’s baseball, so batting and defence and base running are all important,” “I can’t assess myself. But I can say for sure I’ll do the best I can.”
How is Tsutsugo trending?
Tsutsugo is a gifted fly-ball hitter with exceptional raw power. FanGraphs reported that he averaged 92 m.p.h. off the bat last season in the NPB, a number that in MLB would have placed him among the top 30 players in 2019. He’s a natural pull-hitter, but he can still hit the ball the other way with power to centre and left-centre.
Patton said Tsutsugo’s power to the opposite field is one of his most impressive attributes.
“Most guys that are pull hitters are yanking balls down the line and really driving the ball over the pull side a lot, (and) really struggle hitting good quality pitches to the other side,” Patton said. “But Tsutsugo, he’s hitting doubles off the wall to left-centre and he’ll have no problem beating shifts over there.”
How his power translates to the majors, however, is the big unknown. One of the challenges for Tsutsugo will be how he adapts to MLB pitching, specifically, facing guys who on a regular basis throw 95 and up with elite breaking stuff. In Japan, there are some pitchers who throw 95-plus, but not many.
According to Allen, Tsutsugo has struggled to hit upper-90s fastballs in his career.
“Anything 95 and up inside is probably going to eat him up,” he said.
So he’ll need to work on his timing at the plate. That said, Tsutsugo has excellent plate discipline. He can also crush breaking balls — and if you can do it in Japan, where breaking stuff tends to be nastier, you can probably do it over here — and punish mistake pitches.
“What I see from him, he’s going to force people to throw fastballs,” Allen said. “He’s going to force people who throw mediocre fastballs to throw them, and he’ll crush them. I think that 25 to 30 home runs is not an impossibility and because he’s a left-handed hitter, of course, he’ll have the platoon advantage most of the time. I see him as being a fairly useful player.”
Defensively, Tsutsugo has drawbacks. In the outfield, he has a weak arm and he’s not quick. He’s likely limited to a corner outfield spot, first base or DH. He can play third base, but ideally not on a regular basis. Because of these limitations, there are questions about where exactly Tsutsugo fits on an MLB diamond.
“I think he can play,” said Patton. “I think he can find a spot on the roster and play and be beneficial to a team — but in my opinion, I don’t know what position he would play.”
Thanks to the excellent work of colleague Eno Sarris, we have an idea of how the 28-year-old might perform in the majors.
But briefly, by using Clay Davenport’s website to translate Tsutsugo’s Japanese stats into MLB equivalent numbers, Sarris projects Tsutsugo could slash .271/.339/.442 next season. From there, Sarris combined his offensive projections with his poor base running and defence and found that J.D. Davis, (Mets), Ji-Man Choi (Rays) and Brandon Belt (Giants) were apt comparables.
Why Tsutsugo is a fit for the Blue Jays:
Earlier this offseason, Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins expressed interest in adding a first baseman who could play multiple positions. Tsutsugo fits the bill there, even if he won’t be a Gold Glove candidate. As a lefty bat, Tsutsugo would also give the Jays’ right-handed heavy lineup some balance. Although, his addition would rule out any possible platoon with fellow lefty Rowdy Tellez.
When asked directly about Tsutsugo earlier this month at the GM meetings, Atkins admitted the team has looked at the Japanese slugger.
“He’s an exciting hitter and versatile,” “An interesting player, for sure.”
He’s not projected to be a star, but he has the chance to be an average-to-slightly-above-average major-leaguer. Even if his home run rates drop, his ability to get on base and draw walks should hold steady, which is an area Toronto needs to improve in. In terms of intangibles, Tsutsugo is said to have an outgoing, positive personality and a strong work ethic, useful traits during a rebuild.
“I think getting used to failing at that level is probably not going to get him down,” Allen said.
That said, any team acquiring him may need to be patient. A contending club may be unwilling to wait out potential early struggles, but with a young roster, a rebuilding team like the Blue Jays may be able to offer him more runway.
According to Patton, Tsutsugo has tried to connect with his foreign teammates, picking up a few words in English and Spanish. In 2015-16, he played a season of Dominican Winter Ball.
“He’s just eager to learn other cultures and try to speak different languages and stuff like that,” Patton said. “He’s a great guy to have in the clubhouse. He’s not strict about anything or tries to be too hard on people. He likes to keep it light and play around and then once it’s time to go between the lines, then it’s all business.”
Why Tsutsugo might not be a fit for the Blue Jays:
There are a lot of unknowns regarding Tsutsugo and how he’ll fare in the majors. Because of that, there seems to be a wide variance in expectations. Allen called him a “wild card.”
“He has a high upside,” he said. “He has a super-high ceiling compared to the other guys who are (being posted). He could be a guy who could hit 30 home runs, 35, depending on the park. Or, he could be a guy who basically has no role because he’s essentially a 28-year-old Triple-A player with poor defence who can hit 25 home runs. So, there’s that gap.”
With the way the ball flies in the majors now, hitting 20-25 home runs is more commonplace and therefore, what Tsutsugo offers may not be that hard to find elsewhere. There is also a chance that he is a complete bust.
Meanwhile, the Blue Jays have also been a bottom tier defensive team over the past two seasons and must get better in that area. Tsutsugo won’t help them there.
But currently, three of the six current Japanese major leaguers (Shohei Ohtani, Yusei Kikuchi, Kenta Maeda) play on the west coast, while Yoshihisa Hirano is in Arizona. Yu Darvish is with the Cubs, while Masahiro Tanaka plays for the Yankees.
The likely competition:
Milwaukee is a logical landing spot for Tsutsugo, The Brewers declined a team option on Eric Thames — who himself was a successful international signing after he played three seasons in Korea — and are now in the market for another first baseman.
The Mariners, Nationals, White Sox or Angels could also be potential fits.
Dollars and Sense:
Because Tsutsugo would be acquired via the posting system, his financials are a little more complicated than merely signing a free agent. Per the revised rules of the posting system, the MLB team that signs Tsutsugo would need to pay his Japanese club a posting fee that is calculated using the guaranteed money in the contract. Teams pay 20 percent of the first $25 million, 17.5 percent of the next $25 million and 15 percent of any amount above $50 million. For a minor-league contract, the fee is a flat 25 percent. In essence, a club is playing Tsutsugo a salary, plus a little more, to acquire him.
Kiley McDaniel projects he could earn a two-year deal at $8 million per year, while the median projection for the Japanese slugger is a four-year deal worth $40 million for an AAV of $10 million.
Whatever he ends up signing for, Allen suggested Tsutsugo could be a “bargain” because of his makeup and intangibles. “They’re going to get more, I think, than scouts see. I think because of the makeup and because of his attitude and his desire.”
Tsutsugo is a proven slugger in the NPB, but there’s no guarantee his game will succeed in North America. He has swing-and-miss in his game, and that could accelerate in the majors, where he’ll face elite pitching on a more regular basis. And with little to offer defensively, his success will rely primarily on whether he can produce offensively.
He has the chance to be an above-average hitter, although as Eno Sarris points out, he can contribute, but he likely won’t move the needle for a big-budget contender.
Not yet a contender, the Blue Jays could be a nice landing spot for Tsutsugo, where he won’t face the pressure to immediately perform, the way he might with a contending team. He fits the Atkins-preferred mould as a first baseman who can play other positions, and at 28, he’s younger than many of the free agents out there. If he pans out, he should still be in his prime years when the Blue Jays hope to become AL East contenders.
The Blue Jays could be a fit for Tsutsugo. But does the upside outweigh the potential risk?
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