Zach Wheeler - Future Jay ?

Following two fairly tame winters in terms of activity, this one should be a different story for the Toronto Blue Jays. So over the next few weeks, we’ll be identifying and assessing players around Major League Baseball — both free agents and potential trade targets — who we think might currently find their name on some of those infamous Blue Jays whiteboards, as the front office looks to improve the club heading into the 2020 season.

Next up, free-agent starting pitcher Zack Wheeler.


Zack Wheeler, the big, hard-throwing right-hander, has overcome prolonged injury issues to prove he can be an effective front of the rotation starter. After declining the $17.8 million qualifying offer from the New York Mets, the 29-year-old is a free agent for the first time and is expected to receive a big pay raise following the two best seasons of his career.
Originally drafted sixth overall by the San Francisco Giants in 2009, Wheeler spent a season and a half pitching in the Giants’ minor league system before he was traded to the Mets in 2011 for Carlos Beltran. Two seasons later, he was among the top prospects in baseball. He debuted in June 2013, throwing six shutout innings against Atlanta and went on throw 100 innings in his rookie year with the Mets.
In 2014, his first full season in the majors, Wheeler showed promise as a future ace. In 32 starts, he had a 3.54 ERA with 187 strikeouts in 185 1/3 innings. But the following March, Wheeler underwent Tommy John surgery after he tore his ulnar collateral ligament. He missed the entire 2015 and 2016 seasons recovering. Wheeler returned to the majors in 2017 but would continue to deal with injuries in his right arm, pitching only 86 1/3 innings before he was shut down.
By spring training of 2018, Wheeler was finally healthy. He started the season in Triple A but was recalled by mid-April and went on to have a career season, going 12-7 with a 3.31 ERA in 29 starts. He remained healthy in 2019 and over the last two seasons, Wheeler has started 60 games, averaging a 3.65 ERA across 377 2/3 innings with a 3.37 FIP and 1.194 WHIP.
Since he rejected a qualifying offer, Wheeler will have draft pick compensation tied to his signing. Recent history suggests that could make teams wary of acquiring him. But with many clubs in need of starters, Wheeler should still attract suitors.

Wheeler’s 2019 in review:
Following a career-best season in 2018, Wheeler entered 2019 — his walk year — looking to put together another productive and, most importantly, healthy campaign. But he got off to a bad start, allowing 20 earned runs in his first six starts for a 5.05 ERA. By July 7, he had only lowered it to 4.69 through 119 innings.
Despite his poor performance, his name circulated in rumours ahead of the trade deadline as the Mets considered what direction — buying or selling — to take. During the height of speculation, Wheeler landed on the injured list with shoulder fatigue, lowering his chances of being dealt. (The Mets also reportedly had a high asking price).
Ultimately, Wheeler remained with the Mets. After 10 days on the IL, he returned with a rested shoulder and his performance improved through the second half. After a strong August, his best month was September, where he posted a 1.85 ERA in five starts. Overall, his second-half ERA of 2.83 was significantly better than the 4.69 ERA he put up in the first half. Wheeler finished the season with a 3.96 ERA, a 3.48 FIP and a 1.259 WHIP. He also threw a career-high 195 1/3 innings.
Following the season, it was an easy decision for the Mets to make Wheeler a qualifying offer; it guaranteed the club would at least receive a draft pick if he declined and signed elsewhere. Meanwhile, as Tim Britton of the Athletic, it was also a no-brainer for Wheeler to reject the offer to explore free agency, where he can seek a multi-year deal with an average annual value close to or above $17.8 million.



How is Wheeler trending?

It’s no secret Wheeler has a nasty fastball, but recently, he’s been throwing it even harder. This season, his four-seam fastball topped out at a career-best 100.59 miles per hour, while it averaged 97 mph, up about half a mile from last year, per Brooks Baseball. Of qualified starters in 2019, Wheeler’s average fastball velocity ranked fourth — behind Mets teammates Noah Syndergaard (1) and Jacob deGrom (3) and fellow free agent Gerrit Cole (2). Over the last two seasons, Wheeler has also increased the average velocity on his slider (91 mph) and his curveball (80 mph).
The right-hander has also significantly improved the command of his pitches over the last two years, lowering his walk rate from 10.4 percent in 2017 to 6.0 percent this season. His 2.30 walks per nine was also a career-best and nearly one walk less than the major-league average (3.29). Meanwhile, his strikeout rate of 23.6 percent was better than the league average, too.
Wheeler has done well limiting the home-run ball, although that’s partly because he pitches half his games at the pitcher-friendly Citi Field. Still, his 1.01 home runs per nine ranked eighth lowest in the National League, sandwiched between Walker Buehler and Steven Strasburg. His very good HR/FB ratio of 10.9 percent ranked third. Overall, Wheeler manages to limit hard contact very well. According to Statcast, his average exit velocity of 86.2 mph is in the 90th percentile league-wide, while his hard-hit rate of 32.2 percent is in the 82nd percentile.
While injury concerns may linger with Wheeler, given his history, over his last two healthy seasons, he’s been worth 8.9 WAR, per FanGraphs, which would rank him as the ninth-best pitcher in the majors over that same span.


Why Wheeler is a fit for the Blue Jays:
So, the obvious: The Blue Jays are in the market for starting pitchers, and Wheeler is a very good starter available this winter.
He won’t come cheap, but based on several projections, he also won’t demand the kind of money or term Gerrit Cole or Steven Strasburg will. In other words, if the Blue Jays are reluctant to hand over the amount it will take to sign either of those aces, perhaps Wheeler is in their price range. With just $38.4 million devoted to guaranteed salaries for next season, the Blue Jays have the room to spend and potentially outbid other teams. Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins has talked about their “financial flexibility” this offseason — but it’s only an advantage if they use it.

The Blue Jays are in search of starters that can “contribute in significant ways” and over the last two seasons, Wheeler proved he can be a dependable and successful starter. (Yes, the history of arm issues may be a red flag, but at this point, it should be a small one and the team would review his medical records before investing in him.) A healthy Wheeler has an arsenal that stacks up with the upper echelon of the league, and he would represent a significant upgrade to the team’s current rotation. At 29, he’s in the prime of his career and should remain at the top of his game for a few years to come, lining up with the Blue Jays’ potential timeline of contention in 2021 and beyond.

Why Wheeler might not be a fit for the Blue Jays:
If the Mets make Wheeler an offer he likes, he may opt to stay with the club he’s familiar with. “Honestly, I hate change,” Wheeler also told Marc Carig before the trade deadline. “I’m a homebody. I like the group of guys we’ve got here.”

Granted, choosing to sign a contract in the offseason is different from being uprooted from your home in the midst of the season. The fact Wheeler didn’t want to be traded midseason doesn’t mean he won’t sign elsewhere this winter if it’s best for his career. All we’re saying is the self-described “homebody” might be interested in remaining in Queens — especially if it means being part of a rotation that includes reigning Cy Young winner deGrom, Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman.
Even if the Mets decide not to pursue him, it’s fair to assume the Blue Jays will be competing against other teams to win over Wheeler. And selling a free agent on a rebuilding situation is always a tough task, especially when others can provide more competitive atmospheres.
With Wheeler linked to draft pick compensation, it would cost the Blue Jays their second-highest pick in the 2020 draft, plus $500,000 from their international bonus pool, to sign him. While Atkins has said publicly that surrendering a draft pick wouldn’t deter the team from signing a player, it’s an element that will have to be factored into the cost of acquiring Wheeler.

The likely competition:
There are a lot of teams in the market for starting pitchers this season. As one of the best options out there, Wheeler will be highly sought after. The teams appearing willing to spend include: the Phillies, Braves, Brewers, Cubs, Giants, Dodgers, Mets, Padres, Yankees, White Sox, Rangers, Angels and Astros.
Jim Bowden suggests  the Mets, Phillies, Brewers or Angels as potential landing spots for Wheeler.

Dollars and Sense:

Wheeler declined a $17.8 million qualifying offer from the Mets, so he’ll presumably be seeking a multi-year deal, likely with an average annual value in the range of $18-20 million.
MLB Trade Rumours  they predicted Wheeler could receive a five-year deal, worth $100 million. Fan Graph's predicts a four-year contract worth $72 million for an average annual value of $18 million. Meanwhile the Athletic guessed Wheeler could earn a $74 million, four-year deal with an AAV of $18.5 million.

In conclusion:

The Blue Jays have vowed to be aggressive this winter in pursuit of starting pitching. While they may not be players for guys like Cole or Strasburg, the Blue Jays have the financial means to go after a guy like Wheeler, who overcame injuries early in his career to finally look like the star pitcher many predicted he would be.
In the past, we’ve seen the Blue Jays make moves to raise the team’s floor — but adding a starter of Wheeler’s ilk would raise the ceiling. If the team is intent on competing in the American League East by 2021, they need to make moves that bolster their young position player core. A pitcher of Wheeler’s calibre would do that.
But the Blue Jays aren’t alone in their need for front-of-the-rotation arms and there will be other teams in the mix for Wheeler’s services, including his former team, the Mets. Wheeler will cost a draft pick plus a significant investment in terms of dollars and term. The Blue Jays have the financial flexibility to accommodate Wheeler but even if they decide to use it, will it be enough to lure Wheeler north?