We only have two decent looking options tomorrow. I'll also offer a few stretch scenarios for ultra-deep leagues and the truly desperate.
J.C. Ramirez is the top guy on the wire. At 17 percent owned, he's widely available too. The righty has abandoned his four seam fastball in favor of a sinker. The new fastball is still a well below average offering, but it's also much better than the four seamer. His success can be tied to a sharp increase in slider usage – from 25 to 40 percent. He's also throwing a new curve ball. Tally it all up and he went from 73 percent to 43 percent fastballs. Ramirez has maintained a healthy 2.27 BB/9 despite the sharp uptick in breaking balls. He has a tough matchup against the Rays. They have the second best offense versus right-handed pitching.
Mike Foltynewicz is 13 percent owned. He'll face a feeble Pirates offense. Foltynewicz has a similar statistical profile to Ramirez even if he arrives there via a completely different process. He's been steadily regaining velocity. Folty once again looks like the solid starter from 2016. There are still a few flies in the ointment. He remains slightly homer prone, and his strikeouts are down. If Ramirez is option 1a, then Foltynewicz is 1b.
If you're just hunting for ratio help, you may consider Brad Peacock. The Astros righty is off to a hot
Those hunting for warm bodies could try either end of the Josh Tomlin versus Scott Feldman matchup at Great American Ballpark. Since Tomlin can be homer prone, I prefer the Feldman end of the pairing. He's an uninspiring option despite four quality starts and a complete game in nine outings. He also has four brutal meltdowns to his name. High risk, medium reward.
Pitchers to Abuse
Let's talk more about Tomlin here. By dropping his arm angle, Tomlin has converted into a ground ball pitcher. Even though he continues to suffer from an elevated HR/FB ratio, the increase in ground balls has brought him down to a tolerable 1.33 HR/9. Unfortunately, he may have partially solved one weakness at the expense of his greatest strength – an ability to limit hits on balls in play. His .364 BABIP this season is a sharp reversal from his career .281 BABIP. The increase in hard grounders may be to blame. Tomlin continues to post one of the lowest walk rates in the league. Perhaps the next step in his growth as a pitcher is to work outside of the strike zone more often.
Assuming Baltimore isn't rained out, the battle between Adam Wilk and Ubaldo Jimenez may be a race to the bottom. Wilk is a soft tossing lefty who lacks major league stuff. He's nothing more than a spot starter. Meanwhile, the Orioles may be leading the AL East, but it's not because of Jimenez. He has a luck neutral 6.52 ERA with dreadful command. It's about time for Baltimore to scavenge up a replacement.
Ty Blach is another soft tossing lefty whose stuff doesn't quite cut it. Unlike Wilk, Blach is probably just good enough to remain in a major league rotation. He'll need to develop a better breaking ball for his fastball-changeup heavy repertoire to become fantasy relevant.
Other exploits include Feldman and Jeff Hoffman. To my eye, the Rockies prospect has years of adjustment ahead of him before he's a true stud. In reality, adjustments are chunky. He may suddenly mature or never reach his projected peak. As for tomorrow, I'll happily pile up some Phillies.
Hitters: Power
The first Phillie on my list is Tommy Joseph. The fly ball masher has quietly climbed out of the gutter. Since the start of May, he's slashing .352/.429/.741 with five of his six home runs. Joseph is always going to be a streaky hitter, and he certainly won't maintain a .389 BABIP. When he's running hot, he bats cleanup for the Phillies squad. He's out there for the taking in 78 percent of leagues.
Ian Happ is less widely available, but he's still on the wire in 62 percent of leagues. The Cubs top prospect has useful 2B/OF eligibility on Yahoo, and he's batting cleanup most days. Chicago originally called up Happ to cover for a flood of injuries. Everybody is back in the lineup now which means Happ needs to mash to stay on the roster.
So far, so good. He's hitting .333/.462/.714 with a couple home runs and doubles through 26 plate appearances. He also has a strong 19.1 percent walk rate to go with 23.1 percent strikeouts. Oddly, his 19.6 percent swinging strike rate practically makes Joey Gallo look like a contact hitter (that's called hyperbole). Something's gotta give – either fewer whiffs or more strikeouts. In the short term, use Happ indiscriminately in all leagues. Just be prepared for a demotion.
Orioles slugger Trey Mancini is only 14 percent owned. He regularly starts versus bad left-handed pitchers like Wilk. Mancini has actually played his way into every day duty. His results have lagged since the promotion to regular work. He's homerless in his last 33 plate appearances. It's a sign that the scouting report may be catching up. Even so, don't let this dissuade you from using him tomorrow.
The rest of the options all share one trait – their matchup isn't bad. Or good. That includes Luis Valbuena versus Jake Odorizzi and Scott Schebler against Tomlin. In both cases, the batted ball profiles favor the pitchers – just not enough to scare me off from giving them a try. Logan Morrison's pairing with Ramirez is better, assuming he can jump on one of those crappy sinkers.
Kennys Vargas and Max Kepler could do some damage versus Jimenez. Camden Yards massively buffs left-handed power numbers. David Peralta and Brandon Drury are decent alternatives against .
Hitters: Speed
I have just three speedsters to offer tomorrow. Two of may be better bets for power while the third doesn't run all that often. Like Happ, Bradley Zimmer is probably only up for as long as he mashes. Through 14 plate appearances, the results have been mixed. It's nice to see a home run and a 14.3 percent walk rate but not when combined with a 50 percent strikeout rate. He stole his first base on Saturday. Between contact oriented Scott Feldman and GABP, there's a chance for Zimmer to go wild. He's available in 78 percent of Yahoo leagues.
Freddy Galvis may have supplanted Odubel Herrera as the Phillies second hitter. If so, he'll be a solid source of run production sandwiched between Cesar Hernandez and Aaron Altherr. Galvis is one of those defense-first shortstops who has slowly eked out gains at the plate. Sometimes these guys suddenly turn into Yadier Molina or Zack Cozart for a brief time. Galvis doesn't really belong at the top of a lineup. Despite solid power and speed, he has just a .297 OBP in what's shaping up as a career year at the plate. A thin schedule plus a good role making him relevant on Monday.
Last up is Joey Rickard. He bats leadoff when the Orioles face a lefty. The former Rule 5 pick is off to a miserable start at the dish, slashing .232/.259/.339. Despite the low OBP, he has stolen three bases in 58 plate appearances. He has slightly better numbers versus southpaws. Rickard is clearly trying to hit more fly balls. It's also clearly not working.
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