Tuesday, May 16, 2017

Hot hitter Rundown






You should always have the big picture in mind when it comes to your season-long fantasy baseball leagues. Putting too much stock in a small sample size might cause you to make a decision that hurts you in the long run. That said, it doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be taking stock of what’s happened in the immediate past. It can be useful when it comes to weekly or especially daily lineup decisions, waiver wire considerations, tracking who might be coming into more playing time, etc.

The Rotoworld Player Rater is a handy tool that’s among the extensive offerings in Season pass. Each week, I’ll be using the Player Rater to look at the hottest hitters, position by position, over the last week, and providing commentary.

*The following data is based on 5x5 Roto scoring and cover games played from May 8-14.


Catcher

Rank
Player
Tm
Pos
HR
RBI
SB
AVG
R
VAL
#1
Buster Posey
SF
C
3.93155
1.35806
-0.45701
1.86370
3.00300
9.70
#2
Yadier Molina
STL
C
1.59423
0.87031
2.77375
0.81657
1.41003
7.46
#3
Yasmani Grandal
LA
C
0.42557
2.82133
-0.45701
3.79735
0.34804
6.94
#4
Caleb Joseph
BAL
C
0.42557
1.84582
-0.45701
2.89685
0.34804
5.06
#5
Austin Hedges
SD
C
1.59423
1.35806
-0.45701
1.08185
1.41003
4.99
#6
Drew Butera
KC
C
1.59423
0.87031
-0.45701
1.90567
0.87903
4.79
#7
Salvador Perez
KC
C
0.42557
1.84582
-0.45701
2.38027
0.34804
4.54
#8
Willson Contreras
CHC
C
1.59423
0.38255
-0.45701
0.59326
0.34804
2.46
#9
Gary Sanchez
NYY
C
0.42557
0.87031
-0.45701
0.83056
0.34804
2.02
#10
Austin Barnes
LA
C
-0.74309
0.38255
1.15837
0.62123
-0.18295
1.24

Buster Posey’s home run totals have been in a decline the last few seasons, and he popped just one longball in April. However, he’s now gone deep in four of his last six games and has five dingers already in May. His six home runs is tied for fourth among catchers … Speaking of declining power, Yadier Molina hasn’t had much home run pop the last few years, but he hit two over the boards on Sunday, including a long blast off of Jake Arrieta. You obviously can’t count on many days like that, but Molina is so good at making contact that he remains one of the better bets for average among catchers … Austin Hedges hit two more homers this past week and actually picked up eight hits among his 23 at-bats. He’s hitting just .209 with a .258 on-base percentage, but Hedges leads all backstops with his eight longballs. Essentially, he’s given fantasy owners what they thought they’d get out of Mike Zunino … It hasn’t been a great start for Willson Contreras, but a two-homer game highlighted his last week. I was a little worried coming into the season that Contreras would play a tad less than most starting catchers given that he has a quality veteran backup behind him in Miguel Montero. But, Contreras’ 33 games played so far ranks third at the position …

First Base

Rank
Player
Tm
Pos
HR
RBI
SB
AVG
R
VAL
#1
Paul Goldschmidt
ARZ
1B
2.76289
1.84582
1.15837
0.56528
1.94102
8.27
#2
Tommy Joseph
PHI
1B
2.76289
0.87031
-0.45701
1.75904
2.47201
7.41
#3
Eric Hosmer
KC
1B
-0.74309
-0.10520
4.38913
2.35230
0.87903
6.77
#4
Mark Reynolds
COL
1B
0.42557
1.84582
1.15837
1.08185
1.94102
6.45
#5
Justin Smoak
TOR
1B
1.59423
2.82133
-0.45701
0.94921
0.87903
5.79
#6
Justin Bour
MIA
1B
2.76289
1.84582
-0.45701
0.44663
0.34804
4.95
#7
Wil Myers
SD
1B
2.76289
0.87031
1.15837
-0.21657
0.34804
4.92
#8
Eric Thames
MLW
1B
0.42557
0.38255
1.15837
0.06270
1.94102
3.97
#9
Logan Morrison
TB
1B
2.76289
1.84582
-0.45701
-1.26370
0.87903
3.77
#10
Yonder Alonso
OAK
1B
2.76289
1.35806
-0.45701
-0.58652
0.34804
3.43

Tommy Joseph was one of the worst-hitting regulars in baseball in April with a .476 OPS and just one home run, but he’s really turned it on in May with a .400/.512/.886 batting line, four homers and nine RBI in 12 games. It’s good timing on his part, as he was facing the possibility of losing playing time to Howie Kendrick (oblique) when Kendrick returns from the disabled list … Although he didn’t homer and drove in just two runs, Eric Hosmer remained hot this past week with a .986 OPS while also chipping in three stolen bases. Hosmer has a career-low strikeout rate (14.7 percent), but he’s still hitting a ton of balls on the ground (55.1 percent), which is why it’s looking unlikely at this point that he’ll have back-to-back 20-homer seasons … Justin Bour’s hot week – which included home runs in three straight games – got him moved up to the cleanup spot Sunday (he went hitless in four plate appearances). Bour is 6-for-22 (.273) with a home run against lefties so far this season, which is an encouraging start for a guy who’s generally been helpless versus southpaws … The consistency hasn’t been there from month-to-month, but overall Logan Morrison has been quite good since his unspeakably bad April of 2016. Since May 1 of last year, LoMo boasts an .828 OPS and a wRC+ of 127, which ranks 35th in baseball among those with at least 400 plate appearances. He’s batted cleanup for the Rays in eight of his last nine games (and he hit fifth in the other one) …

Second Base

Rank
Player
Tm
Pos
HR
RBI
SB
AVG
R
VAL
#1
Neil Walker
NYM
2B
1.59423
3.79684
-0.45701
2.75022
1.94102
9.63
#2
Brandon Drury
ARZ
2B
1.59423
1.84582
-0.45701
1.99634
0.34804
5.33
#3
Jonathan Villar
MLW
2B
0.42557
1.35806
1.15837
1.34713
0.87903
5.17
#4
Robinson Cano
SEA
2B
1.59423
1.35806
-0.45701
2.03831
0.34804
4.88
#5
Rougned Odor
TEX
2B
-0.74309
-0.59296
4.38913
-0.34921
1.41003
4.11
#6
Jason Kipnis
CLE
2B
1.59423
2.33357
-0.45701
-0.48185
0.34804
3.34
#7
DJ LeMahieu
COL
2B
-0.74309
-0.10520
1.15837
1.83573
0.87903
3.02
#8
Whit Merrifield
KC
2B
0.42557
-0.10520
1.15837
0.69792
0.34804
2.52
#9
Chris Taylor
LA
2B
0.42557
0.87031
-0.45701
-0.36320
1.94102
2.42
#10
Starlin Castro
NYY
2B
0.42557
0.87031
-0.45701
-0.08393
1.41003
2.16

Neil Walker put up an ugly .583 OPS, which was especially worrisome given that his season ended last year due to back surgery. However, the second baseman has come out with guns blazing so far in May, batting .360/.429/.640 with two dingers and 12 RBI across 12 games. Walker has been a fixture in the Mets’ cleanup spot of late and it will stay that way at least until Yoenis Cespedes returns … Brandon Drury’s ability to hack it defensively at second base has been questioned, but he’s been a beast at the plate over his last 19 games with a .364/.417/.621 batting line, three homers and seven RBI. Drury doesn’t steal bases and needs to hit more balls in the air in order to take advantage of his good raw power. But, he’s now batted .290/.336/.466 over 628 plate appearances since the beginning of last season. He can hit … After swiping bases in three straight games over the weekend, Rougned Odor now has four steals to go along with six home runs. That puts him on a 25-homer, 17-steal pace. However, he’s hit only .200 so far this month after a .196 average in April. Odor has upped his walk rate a tad this season, but I think it’s fair to say many in the fantasy industry underestimated the batting average floor for a guy with such awful plate discipline …  Jason Kipnis’ production has been sluggish since he returned from the DL. But, Indians manager Terry Francona stuck him in the leadoff spot Sunday and that seemed to spark him, as Kipnis responded with a four-hit game that included his first two longballs of the season. Carlos Santana hit fifth Sunday with Kipnis in the leadoff spot. We’ll see if that arrangement continues …

Third Base

Rank
Player
Tm
Pos
HR
RBI
SB
AVG
R
VAL
#1
Travis Shaw
MLW
3B
0.42557
2.33357
1.15837
1.46578
1.41003
6.79
#2
Nolan Arenado
COL
3B
0.42557
1.84582
-0.45701
1.06786
3.00300
5.89
#3
Mike Moustakas
KC
3B
1.59423
1.84582
-0.45701
-0.09792
1.41003
4.30
#4
Jedd Gyorko
STL
3B
0.42557
1.84582
1.15837
0.43264
0.34804
4.21
#5
Joey Gallo
TEX
3B
1.59423
1.84582
-0.45701
-0.97045
1.94102
3.95
#6
Yunel Escobar
LAA
3B
0.42557
1.35806
-0.45701
0.43264
1.41003
3.17
#7
Trevor Plouffe
OAK
3B
1.59423
-0.10520
-0.45701
1.22848
0.87903
3.14
#8
Evan Longoria
TB
3B
0.42557
0.87031
-0.45701
0.80258
1.41003
3.05
#9
Alex Bregman
HOU
3B
0.42557
1.35806
1.15837
-0.46786
0.34804
2.82
#10
Miguel Sano
MIN
3B
1.59423
-0.10520
-0.45701
0.09067
1.41003
2.53

Travis Shaw kept it rolling with another big week that included a .942 OPS and seven more RBI (he’s tied for sixth in baseball with 31 ribbies). He’s even contributed a surprising three stolen bases for fantasy owners so far. Shaw left Sunday’s game with a finger injury, but X-rays came back negative … “Only” hitting one home run qualifies as a disappointment for Jedd Gyorko these days, but he drove in six more runs and had an .804 OPS. In 556 plate appearances since the start of last season, Gyorko has slugged 37 home runs. Jhonny Peralta (illness) is due back this week, but that should be irrelevant to Gyorko at this point. He’s locked in as the Cardinals’ third baseman and cleanup hitter … Yunel Escobar’s hamstring injury came at an inopportune time, as he was batting .357/.400/.571 with three home runs and 10 RBI over his last 13 contests. The Angels did at least just get C.J. Cron back, and he should be in line for regular duty at first base, with Luis Valbuena sliding over to third to cover for Escobar … Alex Bregman didn’t have a great week overall, but he did finally club his first home run of the season – a grand slam on Sunday versus the Yankees. Bregman has been batting eighth for the Astros, but his plate discipline has remained excellent even with his struggles and he’s a guy I’d be happy to buy low on …

Shortstop

Rank
Player
Tm
Pos
HR
RBI
SB
AVG
R
VAL
#1
Carlos Correa
HOU
SS
1.59423
3.79684
-0.45701
2.24763
2.47201
9.65
#2
Nick Ahmed
ARZ
SS
2.76289
0.38255
1.15837
0.99118
1.41003
6.71
#3
Elvis Andrus
TEX
SS
-0.74309
1.35806
1.15837
0.68393
1.41003
3.87
#4
Ryan Goins
TOR
SS
0.42557
0.87031
1.15837
0.94921
0.34804
3.75
#5
Corey Seager
LA
SS
0.42557
0.87031
-0.45701
0.16736
1.94102
2.95
#6
Orlando Arcia
MLW
SS
0.42557
1.35806
-0.45701
-0.06994
1.41003
2.67
#7
Xander Bogaerts
BOS
SS
-0.74309
0.38255
2.77375
0.94921
-0.71394
2.65
#8
Trea Turner
WAS
SS
1.59423
1.35806
-0.45701
-1.11708
0.87903
2.26
#9
Pat Valaika
COL
SS
1.59423
1.35806
-0.45701
-0.58652
0.34804
2.26
#10
Jorge Polanco
MIN
SS
0.42557
-0.10520
1.15837
-0.06994
0.34804
1.76

Carlos Correa’s batting line sunk to an embarrassing .196/.292/.250 after his fifth straight hitless game on April 22. Since then, the young shortstop has put up a blistering .363/.422/.638 pace with four home runs and 19 RBI across 20 games … Ryan Goins is filling in for Troy Tulowitzki (hamstring) at shortstop because of his defense, but he managed an .843 OPS with a homer and a stolen base this past week. No, the career .224/.272/.329 hitter won’t keep it up. Tulo is due back this week, anyway … Orlando Arcia remains a work in progress offensively and is stuck at the bottom of the Brewers’ lineup. However, he’s up to four home runs already and I expect the steals to come … Pat Valaika has started every game at shortstop for the Rockies since Trevor Story (shoulder) went down, and he cracked a pair of two-run homers in Sunday’s win over the Dodgers. Valaika produced an underwhelming .261/.311/.414 batting line in the minors, but he did show a little pop and speed. The 24-year-old is worth plugging into fantasy lineups when the Rockies are at home. Unfortunately, they’re beginning a 10-game road trip on Tuesday …

Outfield

Rank
Player
Tm
Pos
HR
RBI
SB
AVG
R
VAL
#1
Mookie Betts
BOS
OF
2.76289
4.28459
1.15837
1.46578
3.00300
12.67
#2
Keon Broxton
MLW
OF
1.59423
2.33357
2.77375
1.84971
3.00300
11.55
#3
Jose Bautista
TOR
OF
2.76289
2.82133
1.15837
-0.33522
1.94102
8.35
#4
Aaron Altherr
PHI
OF
3.93155
2.82133
-0.45701
0.57927
1.41003
8.29
#5
Bryce Harper
WAS
OF
2.76289
2.33357
-0.45701
1.98235
1.41003
8.03
#6
Mike Trout
LAA
OF
2.76289
1.35806
2.77375
0.47461
0.34804
7.72
#7
Lorenzo Cain
KC
OF
-0.74309
0.38255
4.38913
2.49893
0.87903
7.41
#8
Leury Garcia
CWS
OF
1.59423
1.84582
1.15837
1.36112
1.41003
7.37
#9
Kevin Pillar
TOR
OF
0.42557
-0.10520
2.77375
0.81657
3.00300
6.91
#10
Michael Conforto
NYM
OF
1.59423
0.87031
-0.45701
1.73106
3.00300
6.74

Keon Broxton was sent down to the minors last season after a rough start, and it was beginning to look like that might be a possibility again after he hit an ugly .119/.196/.214 with a 21/2 K/BB ratio over his first 46 plate appearances this season. However, he’s come on like gangbusters since then with a .362/.421/.652 line with three home runs, 10 RBI and seven stolen bases over his last 20 contests. He’ll continue piling up strikeouts, so slumps will occur, but Broxton remains an enticing power/speed guy … Jose Bautista put up a 1.075 OPS over the past week, smacking three homers and driving in eight runs. He’s got four longballs already in May after hitting just one in April … After posting an .877 OPS in April, Aaron Altherr has been otherworldly so far in May with a ridiculous 1.435 OPS, six home runs, 16 RBI, 10 runs and one stolen base. He’s also walked 10 times over that stretch, and the 26-year-old has made significant strides with his walk (13.1 percent) and strikeout (25.3 percent) rates this season. Howie Kendrick (oblique) is going to be back before long, but Altherr isn’t going anywhere … Leury Garcia has seized the White Sox’ center field job and has also batted leadoff for them each of the last three games. The 26-year-old’s four home runs certainly look like a fluke, as he’s never hit for power in the majors or minors. However, I will buy Garcia as a speed threat. He put up some gaudy stolen base totals in the minors and has swiped 24 bags in 440 plate appearances at the big league level …

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