A lump of Cole

It’s not too early to say I was wrong about Gerrit Cole. There seemed like good reason for skepticism even beyond last year’s big home run spike; he’d always had league-average swinging-strike rates and he’d usually given up quite a few base runners despite pitching in a good situation in Pittsburgh. Sure, Houston is a pitcher’s park, but it’s one that yields a lot of homers and he’d have to face AL lineups. The Astros, though, have changed Cole’s mix, and he seems like a far better pitcher because of it. Gone is the sinker, and in its place are more high fastballs and sliders. The result through two starts is a swinging-strike rate of 19.6%, twice as high as where he is typically. That’s not sustainable, and he will give up some homers since he’s likely to be more of a fly ball pitcher now. Still, I’d rank him in the 18-22 range among SPs going forward (I had him 39^th in the preseason).

American League notes

- So much for the Angels’ pitching depth: J.C. Ramirez just joined Matt Shoemaker (forearm) and Andrew Heaney (elbow) on the disabled list and will require Tommy John surgery. The Angels are about to get Heaney back, which is very good news, but there’s no telling when Shoemaker might return. I was semi-fond of Ramirez after the leap forward he took in 2017, but this was always the risk with him, as he was originally diagnosed with UCL damage last year. Jaime Barria will make his major league debut when he starts Wednesday; he’s an interesting prospect with very good control, but it’s hard to imagine that he’s ready to start in the majors right now. We’ll likely see Nick Tropeano later this week, and he’s worth adding in AL-only leagues.

- Ian Kinsler (groin) is set to rejoin the Angels on Thursday, pushing Zack Cozart back to third base. With Shohei Ohtani in line for more DH time than expected, Luis Valbuena figures to lose at-bats. It’s not like the Angels are going to bench Albert Pujols.


- With three homers and six steals in his first 10 games, Tim Anderson has been a huge plus in fantasy leagues thus far. The power surge looks like it’s for real; he’s focused on hitting fly balls and his exit velocity is much improved. He’s also perfectly capable of swiping 30-plus bases, so he might well be a top-10 fantasy shortstop. I doubt he’s going to hit for average, though; his contact numbers have gone from bad to horrible with him swinging for the fences, and as long as that holds true, it probably won’t make much sense for the White Sox to move him up in the order. Fortunately, he can be a quality fantasy shortstop while still being a mediocre major leaguer.

- I wouldn’t read very much into the Orioles’ surprise promotion of Hunter Harvey on Monday; they needed a rested arm and their options on the 40-man were very limited. Harvey has thrown a total of 31 innings the last three seasons and has yet to pitch above A-ball; he looked good this spring, but he’s still very much a raw talent and it’s more important that he simply get through this season healthy than that he contribute anything at the major league level.

- Alex Cobb will make his Orioles debut Saturday against the Red Sox. I’m not expecting him to be of much use in mixed leagues. Mike Wright Jr. is likely getting sent to the pen, as the Orioles are going to give Chris Tillman a little while longer to show he’s still a major league pitcher (the early returns are very bleak indeed).

- If Randal Grichuk had been in line to lose some playing time because of his slow start, he just got saved by Kendrys Morales’ hamstring injury. The Jays gave Steve Pearce his first start against a right-hander over Grichuk on Monday and he responded with a homer, but with Morales out, the Jays can use both for the next 10 days before making any decisions on how they want to sort out the at-bats. I still like Grichuk in mixed leagues, so if he was dropped in yours, it’s worth taking a shot. That said, if Grichuk continues to struggle, then Teoscar Hernandez could come up in a few weeks and he’d also have a really good chance of being useful in mixed leagues.

- Aaron Sanchez’s much-improved change up has me quite a bit more optimistic about him than I was going into the spring. Both his swinging-strike and his groundball rates are up.

Aaron Sanchez took a no-hitter into the eighth inning Tuesday in a 2-1 victory over the Orioles.

 

Sanchez was economical with his pitches in cruising through seven frames without yielding a base knock before a Tim Beckham scorcher to lead off the eighth got by Josh Donaldson to end the no-hit bid. The righty gave up two more hits and the lead in the frame but escaped further damage with an inning-ending double play. A Curtis Granderson homer in the top of the ninth made Sanchez a winner. Sanchez walked five on the night and struck out only four, so as far as no-hit bids go it wasn’t the sexiest. Still, we’re not going to complain.   The right-hander gets the Royals next. 

- Alex Colome was at his best in 2016, when he was throwing his fastball slightly more than his cutter. Last year, he threw his cutter two-thirds of the time and went from striking out 31 percent of the batters he faced to 21 percent. This year, he’s throwing his cutter four-fifths of the time and he’s struck out just one of the 25 batters he’s faced. One would think he’d notice the trend. Colome’s cutter is fine, but it’s not a rival for Kenley Jansen’s. For one, he throws it 89 mph, unlike 94 mph or so for Jansen. He needs to get back to giving hitters something else to think about. Fortunately for him, the Rays have no one they want to step into the closer’s role. Sergio Romo would likely be the short-term replacement if the club is forced to make a move. Jose Alvarado is the team’s most talented reliever, but he’s probably not ready for that kind of responsibility yet.

- Thanks to some ugly outfield play from J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts is down for a couple of weeks with an ankle injury that could have turned out considerably worse. Eduardo Nunez’s knee still seems to have him somewhat limited, so rather than ask him to move, the Red Sox should just live with Tzu-Wei Lin’s weak bat at shortstop while Bogaerts is out.

- The Indians’ Tyler Naquin should get the chance to start in right field against right-handers while Lonnie Chisenhall (calf) sits out the next 4-6 weeks. He’s probably not a shallow mixed-league kind of guy, but he’s an option in deeper leagues. While he was a non-factor last year, he hit .296 with 14 homers in 321 at-bats as a rookie in 2016.

- Jurickson Profar should be playing left field over Ryan Rua for the Rangers, but instead he’ll get a look at second base after Rougned Odor suffered a hamstring strain Monday. Mixed-league value doesn’t seem particularly likely; he’s not a basestealer and he just hasn’t demonstrated much power lately.

- Mallex Smith seems like a good bet in mixed leagues while Brad Miller is sidelined by a groin strain. C.J. Cron is also looking at additional at-bats against righties.

- Boog Powell’s knee injury opens the door for Dustin Fowler in Oakland, but the A’s are going to want to see Fowler put up some numbers in Triple-A before giving him a chance. That’s good news for Trayce Thompson, who didn’t originally seem long for Oakland’s roster after being claimed on waivers from the Yankees last week. Thompson makes for a solid add in AL-only leagues.

 The Reds couldn’t call up Nick Senzel when Eugenio Suarez (thumb) got hurt and risk him amassing a full season of service time, but that will change this weekend and he could be added Friday or soon thereafter. Then it becomes a matter of whether he’s mixed-league worthy. Senzel certainly looked the part of a top prospect after moving up to Double-A last year, hitting .340/.413/.560 with 10 homers in 209 at-bats for Pensacola. Still, he failed to homer this spring and his Triple-A experience to this point consists of four games in which he’s hit .235/.235/.294 with five strikeouts. Senzel is a great bet to turn into a fine major league regular, but he doesn’t have exceptional power at the moment and he might never be a true fantasy stud. My guess is that, even though he should get the chance to play regularly, he’s not going be much of an asset in shallow leagues this year.

- The Braves, too, can call up their top prospect this weekend, and it’s always seemed to be the plan to promote Ronald Acuna as early as possible, though Preston Tucker’s hot start and Acuna’s cold one in Triple-A could delay the move for a bit. I’m high on Tucker, who is hitting .333/.364/.600 with two homers in 30 at-bats. He’s not that good, of course, but the power is legit, and he’s helped by being a lefty swinger in a great ballpark for them in Atlanta. Acuna came up with a couple of hits for Gwinnett on Tuesday after opening up 0-for-12. Even if the Braves don’t promote him this weekend -- and it’d allow them to keep up appearances versus some possible future grievance by holding off for a little longer -- it’s highly unlikely to turn into a lengthy stay in Triple-A for him. Tucker can come off the bench for a spell and hopefully supplant Nick Markakis later if anyone is interested in taking on Markakis’s salary.

- Robbie Ray is down two mph across the board in the early going, which is scary news. Ray has poor command and no changeup; his success is a function of him throwing hard enough to make hitters focus on the fastball and chase breaking balls out of the zone. If hitters can stay back just a little longer on him, they’re not going to swing at as many tough sliders and curves, giving Ray nothing to fall back on. I don’t want to panic; Ray’s fastball has never been quite this slow as a major leaguer, but he did start off slower than normal in April each of the previous two years and pick up velocity as the season went along. The humidor will help cover up some mistakes, too.

- Jacob Barnes and Matt Albers both took blown saves in their first save opportunities for the Brewers in the wake of Corey Knebel’s hamstring injury. Barnes took another after coming in mid-inning, for some reason, Tuesday against the Cardinals. Barnes was really let down by his defense in the first blown save, but he made his own trouble in the second, issuing two wild pitches after coming in with a man on second. Albers, too, didn’t get much help in his chance, but that’s the kind of thing that’s more likely to happen when you’re not striking out 15 batters per nine innings as Knebel has done lately. I favor Barnes as the Brewers’ best right-handed reliever going forward, though I wouldn’t want to count on him getting the next save chance. Josh Hader still might be the most valuable reliever in the group for fantasy purposes, even if he’s not a threat to pick up more than occasional odd save in a multi-inning situation. Some have picked up Jeremy Jeffress because of his track record, but his velocity has been well down since the spring and I just don’t have much faith in him at the moment.

- I’m holding out hope that Tyler Beede will turn into a quality major league starter, but it doesn’t seem like now is the time. While he showed some strikeout potential with his curveball, he walked five and lasted just four innings in his major league debut Tuesday against the Diamondbacks. Beede wasn’t any good in Triple-A last year and didn’t impress this spring, so it was mostly desperation that got him his opportunity this week. Maybe he takes a step forward this year, but he still has something to prove in Triple-A.

- It was a surprise that the Cardinals announced immediately that the newly signed Greg Holland would join the active roster after just two appearances in A-ball. It took only a couple of minutes Monday to demonstrate why that might not have been the best idea. Pitching in a tie game in the 10^th, Holland walked four of the five batters he faced and took a loss to the Brewers in his Cardinals debut. While Holland did try to keep his arm strong this spring, there isn’t a really good substitute for game action, and Holland obviously needed some more before being added to the roster. The ugly showing suggested that it’s going to take some time before Holland is ready to ascend to the closer’s role. Mixed leaguers might want to keep him reserved for a week or two if possible. Bud Norris is the favorite for saves in the meantime.

- The Marlins want Brad Ziegler to close in the hopes that he’ll build some trade value, but he’s given up six runs -- five earned -- in 5 2/3 innings to date. If only the Marlins had a clear No. 2, he’d probably be worth a speculative pickup in mixed leagues. However, the ninth could fall to either Kyle Barraclough or Drew Steckenrider if Ziegler is replaced. Barraclough seems to be the eighth-inning guy at the moment, which could give him the edge, but his velocity is down some and he did allow two homers on Tuesday. Steckenrider has yet to give up a run in 5 2/3 innings.

- One week later, it seems safe to write off Ryan McMahon for now. What a disappointment it is that the Rockies chose to carry him and then give him one start in the first 12 games of the season. It’s not even like the team is getting sterling performances from the veterans playing over him. Gerardo Parra is hitting .182/.270/.303 through 10 games, and while Ian Desmond and Carlos Gonzalez are doing OK, they have OBPs of .256 and .268, respectively.

- One hopes that Anthony Rizzo’s back troubles don’t amount to much, but now that he’s on the DL, he’s already locked into missing more games than he has any of the previous three years. Victor Caratini and Ben Zobrist are picking up starts at first base in his place.