Didi is out of this world

Air Ball Revolution continues. It’s the job of this column to celebrate all those big flies. Teams have combined to hit 821 home runs through the bulk of April. It’s a pace of 5,320 home runs over the full season. Although a far cry short of the 6,105 homers hit in 2017, the current pace would represent the third highest total since 2006.

It’s also important to remember the effect of weather. This has been a cold spring. As temperatures warm, more balls will leave the park. On a league wide level, pitchers become less effective throughout the season as teams reach farther and farther into their depth to deal with injuries. In other words, we should expect an uptick in home run rate. I know I can’t even count how many almost-home runs I’ve seen that would have left the yard in 95 degree field temperatures.


Week Four Leaders

Didi Gregorius: 5 HR
Joey Votto: 4 HR
Mitch Haniger: 4 HR
C.J. Cron: 4 HR
Matt Davidson: 4 HR
Yonder Alonso: 4 HR

Six players whacked at least four home runs in the last week, led by Gregorius’ five yakkers. Every year, somebody has an insane, unexpected breakout. Gregorius is benefiting from spontaneously improved plate discipline. It’s the kind of thing you hope for but can’t actually see coming. An aggressive hitter for his entire career, he’s trimmed his swing rate on all pitch types, especially those out of the zone. The result has been a LOT more hard contact. Combined with his fly ball, pulled contact rates, and tiny home park, he could become a legitimate 40 home run threat this season. He’s already bopped 10 with five-sixths of the season remaining. This is a case where I’d be willing to buy high.

Oh, hello there Votto. You’re hitting .280/.392/.430 with more walks than strikeouts? I thought I heard you were slumping? We knew the correction was coming. He’s back to standard Votto. I hope you didn’t sell low in a panic.

Haniger! Last week, I introduced a new feature to this column, the Power Spotlight. First under the light was Haniger. How’s that for instant gratification? I mentioned feeling bullish about his power potential, pegging him to reach the 30 home run plateau. At the time, projection systems were expecting no more than 25 home runs. With nine long balls on the season, the projection systems now predict between 28 and 33 home runs. I remain more bullish than them. Mark me down for 35 home runs. Hopefully he stays healthy.

The remaining sluggers to hit four home runs are a trio of volatile veterans. Even with the positive week, Alonso may be available as a buy low target. An uncharacteristic .194 BABIP has held down his batting average. By comparison, Davidson and Cron are playing at their ceilings. Both whiff far too frequently to be viewed as a consistent fantasy asset. That said, they make for a good power source off the waiver wire. Both players will bounce on and off rosters in typical 12-team formats.

My Top 10 Projected Home Run Leaders

Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels
Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees
Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals
Khris Davis, Oakland Athletics
Joey Gallo, Texas Rangers
J.D. Martinez, Boston Red Sox
Charlie Blackmon, Milwaukee Brewers
 Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles Didi Gregorius, New York Yankees

With four home runs apiece, Nolan Arenado and Brian Dozier have fallen off the top 10 list. They’re not far beyond the fold – there’s plenty of time to make up ground with a hot week or two. Dozier in particular isn’t having his usual first-half slump. Joining the list in their place are Gregorius and Machado. We discussed Gregorius in some detail above. As for Machado, he’s off to a hot start with nine home runs and a shiny .356/.440/.693 batting line. The Orioles offense is execrable. I worry teams will simply stop pitching to Machado. I know I would.

The other big shake up of the week is the rise of Trout to the top spot. Is this the year he breaks all of baseball? The 26-year-old is already an instant Hall of Famer. His pitch recognition has reached new peaks. He’s attacking mashable pitches while spitting upon anything out of the zone. Like Machado, I’m concerned opponents will give up on throwing anything near the strike zone.

Ryon Healy returned as expected, bumping Dan Vogelbach to Triple-A in the process. Surprisingly, Eugenio Suarez raced back to the majors too. I guess he didn’t want to give Nick Senzel a chance to debut. Donaldson is still on the cusp of return. He’ll begin a rehab assignment today. When he returns, he’ll play designated hitter while he completes a throwing program. That’ll come at the expense of Kendrys Morales. Buxton, Rendon, Trumbo, and Renfroe are likely to return in the next week.

Five new sluggers joined the disabled list. Rendon has a lingering toe contusion. He should be back any day now. Renfroe was battling some elbow inflammation. He’s throwing and eligible to return as soon as tomorrow. Beltre and Gonzalez also aren’t likely to miss much more than the minimum 10 days on the disabled list. The news isn’t as good for Thames. A torn thumb UCL will sideline him another six to eight weeks.

Teams Visiting Launching Pads

For Opening Week, I provided a detailed report on home run park factors (skip to the part titled “Park Factors” on page two). This section will be used to highlight which teams are visiting the most homer happy venues – namely Citizen’s Bank Park, Coors Field, Yankee Stadium, and Great American Ballpark.

The Phillies, Rockies, and Yankees will spend most of the next week on the road. The Yankees return home next Friday to host the Indians. It’s a great time to own players like Yonder Alonso, Michael Brantley, Bradley Zimmer, Jason Kipnis, and even Tyler Naquin.

The one launching pad on full display is Great American Small park. The Reds will host the Brewers and Marlins. Injuries have opened up regular playing time for Domingo Santana. Jesus Aguilar is playing irregularly – basically any time Ryan Braun isn’t up to covering first base. They represent the two best potentially available power hitters on the Brew Crew. Jonathan Villar isn’t a total zero in the power department. As for the Marlins, Martin Prado is back from the grave. Starlin Castro, Brian Anderson, Derek Dietrich, Lewis Brinson, and Cameron Maybin all have some modest pop too.

Power Spotlight

Since we’ve already covered the salient points of Gregorius’ emergence as a power threat, let’s focus on a different player in this week’s Power Spotlight – A.J. Pollock. I’m modestly hopeful that Pollock is in the midst of a meaningful power breakout. Combined with his 20 to 30 steal speed, this has the makings of a monster fantasy season.

Despite spending parts of seven seasons in the majors, Pollock hasn’t fully established himself as a reliable fantasy threat. His superb 2015 performance was followed by an injury marred 2016. When he returned last season, he looked rusty. Entering his age 30 campaign, it was fair to wonder if Pollock lost most of his prime years.

Good news! The early results are extremely promising. He’s doing all the things I look for in a potential power breakout. His 43.9 percent fly ball rate is a career high by a wide margin. Similarly, his 36.4 percent ground ball rate is easily a career low. He’s making frequent pulled contact, and his 43.9 percent hard contact rate is also a career best. If those rates hold steady, we can expect about 40 home runs over a full season. He’s already banked six.

For this added power, Pollock is whiffing more frequently. His current 26 percent strikeout rate is supported by a big uptick in swinging strike rate. It’s not unusual to see this strikeouts-for-power tradeoff any time a hitter changes their approach. If there’s good news, it’s that most of the whiffs are coming on pitches outside of the strike zone. Pollock could conceivably learn to lay off the offerings he can no longer handle.

I suppose somebody has explained regression to you before. Basically, when a veteran has atypical production, we should expect his future numbers to look more like his past performances. In the case of Pollock, that would include fewer flies, more grounders, and fewer whiffs. Instead of 40 home runs, we’d anticipate closer to 25 big flies. Due to the Air Ball Revolution, I’m more inclined to attribute performance like Pollock’s to a change in approach.

Either way, a healthy season should include a career high in home runs to go with valuable five category production. Unlike past seasons when his RBI totals have been constrained by his role, he’s batting cleanup for the Diamondbacks. That’s a lot of opportunities to drive in Paul Goldschmidt. And since the bottom of the Arizona lineup is weak, he’s incentivized to steal bases too. I’m buying high.