Of the three reasons I suggested staying away from Didi Gregorius this spring, two have gone by the wayside. One was that he was due to hit lower in the Yankees lineup, but that was taken care of by the Greg Bird injury. All spring it looked like Bird would hit ahead of Gregorius, and since the lefties wouldn’t bat back-to-back, Gregorius was looking at hitting sixth or seventh. Aaron Hicks getting hurt on Opening Day also helped; Gregorius hit sixth against a left-hander in the opener, but he’s hit mostly fourth and never lower than fifth since.
Another reason to avoid Gregorius was that he’s a zero in steals. Gregorius, though, was 2-for-3 stealing bases in a series against the Orioles last week. He attempted a total of four steals in 136 games last year. Gregorius shouldn’t remain much of a factor in that category, but having two steals already is part of why he’s rated as a top-10 position player to date.
Neither of those was the big reason I was avoiding Gregorius, though. It was that his power production just wasn’t backed up by his weak exit velocities. Last year, his exit velocity on flyballs/line drives ranked 357th of the 387 players with 100 batted-ball events. His hard-hit percentage, according to FanGraphs, was sixth worst of the 144 players to qualify for the batting title. I didn’t see much to be encouraged about, though I still wasn’t exactly projecting him to be a bust; I had him hitting .271 with 21 homers and 80 RBI.
Did I miss something? There’s certainly something to be said for quantity. Yasmany Tomas kills it when it comes to exit velocity on balls in the air, but he strikes out a quarter of the time and hits grounders half of the time when he makes contract. Gregorius, last year, struck out just 12 percent of the time and hit grounders only 36 percent of the time on contact. That’s a whole lot more chances to sneak one over the wall or dump a double down the line. This year, Gregorius has struck out just three times and hit grounders a mere 31 percent of the time (that would have ranked fourth lowest of batting-title qualifiers last year).
Probably Gregorius has just gotten better. His average exit velocity on flies/liners this year is 93.5 mph, way up from last year’s 88.5 mph. That would have ranked among the upper half of regulars last year, as opposed to the 10th percentile. His hard-hit percentage is up by nearly 50 percent, too. One never wants to read too much into 15 games, but those are very good signs. It also helps his fantasy value substantially that he’d locked into hitting right behind Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton for the foreseeable future. I don’t think he’ll hit like Carlos Correa or Francisco Lindor the rest of the way, but he’s in such a great situation that he doesn’t need to in order to remain very valuable for fantasy purposes. If he wants to keep stealing the occasional base, that’d help, too
American League notes
- Getting pulled from Monday’s game at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre led to speculation that Gleyber Torres was getting called up, though that didn’t make much sense; for service-time reasons, Wednesday was the earliest Torres was going to come up. I’m skeptical that Torres is ready to be all that much of an asset; he’s going to be an excellent player in time, but he’s still just 21 and his power isn’t fully developed yet. If the Yankees do call him up, they’d surely play him regularly initially, making him worth trying in mixed leagues. For the short term, though, his ceiling doesn’t seem particularly high. A Torres promotion would likely result in Miguel Andujar getting sent down; Torres’s last seven starts in Triple-A have all come at third base. Andujar, though, seems to be finding his stroke.
- Ditching his curve in favor of a slider has made a big difference for Reynaldo Lopez, who is sporting a 1.42 ERA over his first three starts. He’s fanned 28.4 percent of the batters he’s faced, nearly double last year’s 14.5 percent from his eight big-league starts. I’m not sure Lopez is a mixed-league asset now; he’s still a big flyball pitcher and he’s walked 11 through 19 innings. He’s certainly gotten more interesting, but I wouldn’t drop anyone of significance to pick him in a 10- or 12-team league.
- With Kevin Kiermaier out 8-12 weeks due to a torn thumb ligament, Mallex Smith is now in line for an extended run as a regular. He was already worth picking up with Brad Miller out, but he has some added value now. Smith has been very shaky defensively, something that could have cost him playing time if everyone were healthy, but the Rays have little choice but to start him nearly everyday and hit him high in the order against right-handers now.
- The Rays just lost Matt Duffy (hamstring), too, which should give Daniel Robertson a chance at regular playing time. Duffy hasn’t looked very good anyway. That’s understandable, given that he’d missed a year and a half, but he was really just producing soft contact. I’m not sure what position he’ll end up at, but Robertson has a better chance of being a big part of the team’s long-term plans than Duffy, Adeiny Hechavarria or Joey Wendle.
- All of the Rangers’ plans seem to be going awry. Part of the problem was that they had some bad plans, but then there was no accounting for losing Delino DeShields Jr., Rougned Odor and Elvis Andrus in the first two weeks of the season. Now they’re in an even bigger mess because Jurickson Profar’s terrible footwork around the bag resulted in him sustaining a concussion on Monday. Isiah Kiner-Falefa will play regularly for a spell, though he shouldn’t have much fantasy value.
- Joey Gallo was only supposed to be a first baseman this year, but he’s in left field now to make room for prospect Ronald Guzman. Guzman is a very solid hitter, but he’s one without the power one wants from a first baseman and he has no ability to play any other position. He might be fine anyway, and since he’s in a good hitting environment in Texas, he could have some value in deeper leagues. It’s still likely that the Rangers will want Willie Calhoun in left field at some point next month, possibly crowding Guzman out of a job. However, much could happen in Texas before then.
- I had my fingers crossed for Derek Fisher in Houston, but he couldn’t establish himself while Yuli Gurriel was out and playing time is going to be hard to come by now. Not that it’s been easy to come by anyway; he has 10 fewer plate appearances than the struggling Jake Marisnick and one more than backup catcher Max Stassi. It’s too bad; Fisher offers a rather rare combination of power and speed. He might not be a good major leaguer yet, but I was really hoping he’d get the chance to succeed or fail.
National League notes
- With seemingly little interest in winning ballgames, the Reds decided against promoting Nick Senzel in the injured Eugenio Suarez’s place last weekend. Senzel did get off to something of a slow start in Triple-A, though given the alternatives, it was hard to justify not making the move. But not only did the Reds pass for now, but they’ve gone back to playing Senzel at second base; he played third in three straight games after Suarez got hurt, but he’s been back at second his last three (he also played second in all four games prior to Suarez’s injury). It suggests that there’s no plan for Senzel to join the team in April, which probably means the Reds aren’t going to chance calling him up until the super-two deadline passes in late May. Which also means the Reds are terribly cheap and thoroughly unworthy of receiving any fan support for the foreseeable future.
- And can we talk some more about Amir Garrett? The 25-year-old lefty showed up this spring with considerably better stuff than he had last year, when he was pretty much handed a rotation spot. He seemed more worthy of the opportunity this time around, but instead he’s been buried in the pen; all seven of his appearances have come with the Reds trailing, and even though he’s yet to allow a run in 9 1/3 innings, the Reds have still lost all seven of those games. I’m not sure Garrett would make for an above average starter as is, but I’d take my chances with him over four-fifths of the Reds’ current rotation. At least it sounds better than having him behind Kevin Quackenbush in the bullpen pecking order.
- When the Padres signed Eric Hosmer over the winter, they were also committing to a long-term future with only one outfield spot open for Hunter Renfroe, Jose Pirela, Franchy Cordero and anyone else who might come along. Of course, there have been plenty of at-bats to go around lately with both Wil Myers (forearm) and Manuel Margot (ribs) on the disabled list, but Myers is aiming to return Friday and Margot could be back sometime next week. So, what happens then? Presumably, either Renfroe or Cordero will be sent to Triple-A to play regularly, since there wouldn’t be enough at-bats for everyone. I doubt they’d just demote Margot, their best position player last year, because he hit .159 in 11 games, but let’s not completely rule that out, especially if he were to come back and struggle for another couple of weeks. I have faith that Margot will be a top-30 fantasy outfielder this year if left alone. However, the Padres could gain an extra year of control with him if they were to send him down for a month.
- Adam Wainwright isn’t the only problem in the Cardinals’ rotation: Michael Wacha’s velocity spike has evaporated and he hasn’t impressed in any of his starts to date. His fastball is down two mph from last year, leaving him back in the 91-95 mph range, and while that might not be the end of the world, he’s also walking too many batters and struggling to get grounders. I don’t want to totally write him off, but given his rather modest upside, he’s droppable in shallow mixed leagues at this point. I’d put him in the 70-80 range among SPs now after ranking him 54th in the preseason.
- I was down on Paul DeJong coming into the year because of his ugly plate discipline numbers last year. Oddly enough, he’s swinging at far fewer pitchers this year, yet striking out a whole bunch more (while also not walking any more). It all seems pretty discouraging to me; it seems like he’s being more selective, but he’s not actually swinging at better pitches or making any more contact. He’ll still get his homers, but the batting average probably won’t be there and he’s a zero in steals, making him a weak bet in mixed leagues.
- The Rockies’ regular first baseman has a 69 OPS+ in 403 at-bats since signing with the team. The Rockies’ regular left fielder has a 79 OPS+ in 819 at-bats since signing with the team. If Ryan McMahon isn’t the answer to one of those problems, the team still has to figure out who else might be. Unfortunately, David Dahl has been limited to two games in Triple-A by a virus of some sort. It couldn’t hurt to give Raimel Tapia a chance to play over Gerardo Parra.
- While I’m not concerned about Ronald Acuna’s start, there isn’t much reason to call him up while he’s batting .139 with 14 strikeouts in 36 at-bats. Acuna undoubtedly would have made the Braves out of spring training if not for the service-time concerns, so it’d be understandable if he weren’t in the best frame of mind while riding buses in the minors. I don’t imagine the slump will last for long, and while I do like Preston Tucker, there shouldn’t be any blocking Acuna once he heats up.
- I still don’t know about the whole Jacob Barnes vs. Matt Albers issue, but I like what Craig Counsell is doing with Josh Hader, who has earned a pair of two-inning saves over the last week. Reserving Hader for the ninth would be a bad call, but using him like this and giving him the chance to finish games when he’s got it going is the right way to play it. Hader might not get more than a couple of more saves while Corey Knebel is out, but he’s a valuable fantasy property anyway. As for the righties, I still don’t trust Jeremy Jeffress at all, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he gets the next chance.
- Joc Pederson is quite possibly the Dodgers’ best outfield option against right-handed pitching, yet he’s started just five of the team’s 16 games thus far. His big problem is that the team has declined to give Chris Taylor any infield starts, even though there’s a Justin Turner-sized hole there (entering Tuesday’s game, the Dodgers had gotten sub-.600 OPSs from both second base and third base). I find that baffling; Taylor is a pretty good infielder and quite likely a better second baseman than a center fielder (though he is also a better center fielder than Pederson). Obviously, the Dodgers still have plenty to sort through. Besides the infield problems, Taylor and Yasiel Puig haven’t hit much. Logan Forsythe, who was a major liability while trying to play through shoulder problems, has joined Turner on the disabled list. I assume the team will eventually figure out it needs Pederson’s bat. It might also need the all-around game of Andrew Toles, who was off to a 12-for-26 start in Triple-A before going down with a hamstring injury.
- Josh Harrison figures to miss six weeks with a broken bone in his hand, giving Adam Frazier the starting job he would have had if anyone had wanted to trade for Harrison over the winter. Frazier won’t have the homers or steals to amass much value in shallow mixed leagues, but he can hit for average and score runs batting at the top of the Pirates lineup. He’s worth using in deeper mixed leagues.
- The Diamondbacks lack any great alternatives to step into the injured Taijuan Walker’s place in the rotation. Randall Delgado might have been an option, but he’s still down with a strained oblique. It’ll likely come down to Matt Koch or Braden Shipley. Shipley is off to a nice start in Triple-A, having posted a 1.56 ERA in 17 1/3 innings. I haven’t been impressed with his stuff in recent seasons (he lost something after emerging as a top prospect a few years ago), but he probably still has more upside than Koch, who would fit better as a middle reliever. I’d be scared to play either in an NL-only league initially.
- I’m not finding myself overly impressed by Dansby Swanson’s hot start; he has mediocre power and a mediocre contact rate, which suggests he’ll be a mediocre hitter again before long. It is good that he’s getting the ball in the air more frequently, but I still wouldn’t rank him among my top 20 fantasy shortstops.
- With seemingly little interest in winning ballgames, the Reds decided against promoting Nick Senzel in the injured Eugenio Suarez’s place last weekend. Senzel did get off to something of a slow start in Triple-A, though given the alternatives, it was hard to justify not making the move. But not only did the Reds pass for now, but they’ve gone back to playing Senzel at second base; he played third in three straight games after Suarez got hurt, but he’s been back at second his last three (he also played second in all four games prior to Suarez’s injury). It suggests that there’s no plan for Senzel to join the team in April, which probably means the Reds aren’t going to chance calling him up until the super-two deadline passes in late May. Which also means the Reds are terribly cheap and thoroughly unworthy of receiving any fan support for the foreseeable future.
- And can we talk some more about Amir Garrett? The 25-year-old lefty showed up this spring with considerably better stuff than he had last year, when he was pretty much handed a rotation spot. He seemed more worthy of the opportunity this time around, but instead he’s been buried in the pen; all seven of his appearances have come with the Reds trailing, and even though he’s yet to allow a run in 9 1/3 innings, the Reds have still lost all seven of those games. I’m not sure Garrett would make for an above average starter as is, but I’d take my chances with him over four-fifths of the Reds’ current rotation. At least it sounds better than having him behind Kevin Quackenbush in the bullpen pecking order.
- When the Padres signed Eric Hosmer over the winter, they were also committing to a long-term future with only one outfield spot open for Hunter Renfroe, Jose Pirela, Franchy Cordero and anyone else who might come along. Of course, there have been plenty of at-bats to go around lately with both Wil Myers (forearm) and Manuel Margot (ribs) on the disabled list, but Myers is aiming to return Friday and Margot could be back sometime next week. So, what happens then? Presumably, either Renfroe or Cordero will be sent to Triple-A to play regularly, since there wouldn’t be enough at-bats for everyone. I doubt they’d just demote Margot, their best position player last year, because he hit .159 in 11 games, but let’s not completely rule that out, especially if he were to come back and struggle for another couple of weeks. I have faith that Margot will be a top-30 fantasy outfielder this year if left alone. However, the Padres could gain an extra year of control with him if they were to send him down for a month.
- Adam Wainwright isn’t the only problem in the Cardinals’ rotation: Michael Wacha’s velocity spike has evaporated and he hasn’t impressed in any of his starts to date. His fastball is down two mph from last year, leaving him back in the 91-95 mph range, and while that might not be the end of the world, he’s also walking too many batters and struggling to get grounders. I don’t want to totally write him off, but given his rather modest upside, he’s droppable in shallow mixed leagues at this point. I’d put him in the 70-80 range among SPs now after ranking him 54th in the preseason.
- I was down on Paul DeJong coming into the year because of his ugly plate discipline numbers last year. Oddly enough, he’s swinging at far fewer pitchers this year, yet striking out a whole bunch more (while also not walking any more). It all seems pretty discouraging to me; it seems like he’s being more selective, but he’s not actually swinging at better pitches or making any more contact. He’ll still get his homers, but the batting average probably won’t be there and he’s a zero in steals, making him a weak bet in mixed leagues.
- The Rockies’ regular first baseman has a 69 OPS+ in 403 at-bats since signing with the team. The Rockies’ regular left fielder has a 79 OPS+ in 819 at-bats since signing with the team. If Ryan McMahon isn’t the answer to one of those problems, the team still has to figure out who else might be. Unfortunately, David Dahl has been limited to two games in Triple-A by a virus of some sort. It couldn’t hurt to give Raimel Tapia a chance to play over Gerardo Parra.
- While I’m not concerned about Ronald Acuna’s start, there isn’t much reason to call him up while he’s batting .139 with 14 strikeouts in 36 at-bats. Acuna undoubtedly would have made the Braves out of spring training if not for the service-time concerns, so it’d be understandable if he weren’t in the best frame of mind while riding buses in the minors. I don’t imagine the slump will last for long, and while I do like Preston Tucker, there shouldn’t be any blocking Acuna once he heats up.
- I still don’t know about the whole Jacob Barnes vs. Matt Albers issue, but I like what Craig Counsell is doing with Josh Hader, who has earned a pair of two-inning saves over the last week. Reserving Hader for the ninth would be a bad call, but using him like this and giving him the chance to finish games when he’s got it going is the right way to play it. Hader might not get more than a couple of more saves while Corey Knebel is out, but he’s a valuable fantasy property anyway. As for the righties, I still don’t trust Jeremy Jeffress at all, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he gets the next chance.
- Joc Pederson is quite possibly the Dodgers’ best outfield option against right-handed pitching, yet he’s started just five of the team’s 16 games thus far. His big problem is that the team has declined to give Chris Taylor any infield starts, even though there’s a Justin Turner-sized hole there (entering Tuesday’s game, the Dodgers had gotten sub-.600 OPSs from both second base and third base). I find that baffling; Taylor is a pretty good infielder and quite likely a better second baseman than a center fielder (though he is also a better center fielder than Pederson). Obviously, the Dodgers still have plenty to sort through. Besides the infield problems, Taylor and Yasiel Puig haven’t hit much. Logan Forsythe, who was a major liability while trying to play through shoulder problems, has joined Turner on the disabled list. I assume the team will eventually figure out it needs Pederson’s bat. It might also need the all-around game of Andrew Toles, who was off to a 12-for-26 start in Triple-A before going down with a hamstring injury.
- Josh Harrison figures to miss six weeks with a broken bone in his hand, giving Adam Frazier the starting job he would have had if anyone had wanted to trade for Harrison over the winter. Frazier won’t have the homers or steals to amass much value in shallow mixed leagues, but he can hit for average and score runs batting at the top of the Pirates lineup. He’s worth using in deeper mixed leagues.
- The Diamondbacks lack any great alternatives to step into the injured Taijuan Walker’s place in the rotation. Randall Delgado might have been an option, but he’s still down with a strained oblique. It’ll likely come down to Matt Koch or Braden Shipley. Shipley is off to a nice start in Triple-A, having posted a 1.56 ERA in 17 1/3 innings. I haven’t been impressed with his stuff in recent seasons (he lost something after emerging as a top prospect a few years ago), but he probably still has more upside than Koch, who would fit better as a middle reliever. I’d be scared to play either in an NL-only league initially.
- I’m not finding myself overly impressed by Dansby Swanson’s hot start; he has mediocre power and a mediocre contact rate, which suggests he’ll be a mediocre hitter again before long. It is good that he’s getting the ball in the air more frequently, but I still wouldn’t rank him among my top 20 fantasy shortstops.
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