LAUNCHING PAD
The weather is heating up and with it the home runs are flying. Through roughly 70 games, a whopping 78 players have achieved double digit home runs. Last season, 242 players reached 10 or more home runs. We still have a ways to go. We're still waiting for power bats like Kris Bryant, Alex Bregman, Matt Carpenter, Marcell Ozuna, and others to cross the threshold. Four players have already reached the 20 homer plateau, putting them on pace for about 50 home runs. A full 97 hitters are on pace for 20 home runs. Not all of them will get there, but a few of the behind pace sluggers will replace them. There's an outside chance we see 100 hitters reach 20 home runs.
Nelson Cruz: 5 HR
6 Others: 4 HR
Cruz stood alone atop the weekly home run leaderboard. For those who have been reading all season, Cruz was initially ranked among the top 10 projected home run leaders (the next section). A slow start and a minor injury bumped him from the list. The hot week has boosted him back onto the list with a projection of 39 home runs.
Mike Trout was among those to hit four home runs in the last week. The performance came with a .500/.571/1.091 batting line over 28 plate appearances. He now leads all of baseball with 23 big flies. Paul Goldschmidt and Marcell Ozuna finally awoke. Goldy actually hit six home runs in his last eight games. Before rejoicing too emphatically, four of those came at Coors Field. Ozuna spent much of the early season in a deep, powerless funk. Although his current hot streak is encouraging – he's batting .425/.481/.712 over his last 82 plate appearances – it's odd that his six home runs haven't been matched by an uptick in other extra base hits (one double, one triple). That's a possible sign his power woes aren't truly behind him.
The others to bop four home runs apiece include Freddie Freeman, Ryon Healy, and Evan Gattis. These are all players we should expect to occasionally see among the weekly leaders even if they won't push for the home run crown. Freeman, for example, projects to finish the season with around 34 home runs to go with fantastic run and batting average numbers. Gattis and Healy are both rather similar hitters – power bats with an uninspiring on base percentage. Gattis' playing time is slightly inconsistent while Healy's lack of defensive versatility will eventually cost him at bats.
My Top 10 Projected Home Run Leaders
J.D. Martinez, Boston Red Sox: 22 HR, 47 HR projected
Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels: 23 HR, 47 HR projected Khris Davis, Oakland Athletics: 20 HR, 44 HR projectedJoey Gallo, Texas Rangers: 18 HR, 41 HR projected
Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Indians: 20 HR, 41 HR projected
Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals: 18 HR, 41 HR projected
Aaron Judge, New York Yankees: 18 HR, 41 HR projected
Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles: 18 HR, 40 HR projected Nelson Cruz, Seattle Mariners: 16 HR, 39 HR projected Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox: 18 HR, 39 HR projectedAs a reminder, the arrows represent changes to the projected end-of-season home run total. The process I use is intentionally simplistic. I estimate remaining balls in play, multiply by projected fly ball rate. Multiply again by HR/FB ratio. And viola – rest of season home run projections.
This week's update demonstrates the importance of any given week on the projections. Cruz wasn't even sniffing the top 10 until his recent homer binge. Trout and Davis also improved expectations via four home run performances. On the flip side, Machado, Betts, and Stanton failed to homer. Betts clings to the last spot because he puts so many balls in play. Stanton and Edwin Encarnacion also project to hit 39 home runs.
Disabled
***Matt Chapman, Oakland Athletics (hand discomfort)
***Evan Longoria, San Francisco Giants (fractured hand)
***Jorge Soler, Kansas City Royals (fractured foot)
***Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers (ruptured biceps tendon – out for season)
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels (UCL strain)
Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants (appendectomy)
Josh Donaldson, Toronto Blue Jays (calf strain)
Ronald Acuna, Atlanta Braves (knee sprain)
Franchy Cordero, San Diego Padres (forearm strain)
Steven Souza, Arizona Diamondbacks (pectoral soreness)
A.J. Pollock, Arizona Diamondbacks (thumb fracture)
Paul DeJong, St. Louis Cardinals (fractured finger)
Yoenis Cespedes, New York Mets (mild hip flexor strain)
Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals (back soreness)
Lucas Duda, Kansas City Royals (plantar fasciitis)
Nick Delmonico, Chicago White Sox (fractured metacarpal)
Corey Seager, Los Angeles Dodgers (TJS – out for season)
Wil Myers, San Diego Padres (oblique strain)
***denotes new injury
A few big names returned from the disabled list this week. Mookie Betts missed a bit more time than originally expected with a strained oblique. Even Grade 1 oblique strains can be notoriously tricky to heal. Eric Thames is back from a thumb injury, although he has been used sparingly in deference to the hot hitting Jesus Aguilar. Daniel Murphy finally made his 2018 season debut after offseason knee surgery. With Adam Eaton also back in the fold and the emergence of Juan Soto, the Nationals have enviable depth. Padres outfielder Wil Myers may be the next player to escape DL purgatory. He's on Triple-A rehab assignment.
As always, good news is matched with bad. Cabrera will miss the remainder of the season. Soler's 2018 campaign is at risk too. The recovery time for a fracture of this nature is usually two to four months. Longoria will likely miss a month or more. Chapman isn't technically on the disabled list yet. Every indication points to a 10 day rest. Ohtani's season as a pitcher is probably over, but the Angels still hope to use him as a designated hitter.
Teams Visiting Launching Pads
For Opening Week, I provided a detailed report on home run park factors (skip to the part titled "Park Factors" on page two). This section will be used to highlight which teams are visiting the most homer happy venues – namely Citizen's Bank Park, Coors Field, Yankee Stadium, and Great American Ballpark.
The Cardinals will visit Philadelphia for a three game set. Although they aren't free agents, it's a great time to use players like Matt Carpenter, Tommy Pham, and Marcell Ozuna. All three were buy low targets at some point this season – the time to buy is now for Pham. Digging deeper, Harrison Bader is playing regularly in place of Dexter Fowler. Yairo Munoz, Jedd Gyorko, and Yadier Molina are all available in many 12 team formats.
The Rockies will be home all week, hosting the Mets for four games and the Marlins for three contests. If you jumped early on the Brandon Nimmo bandwagon, here is a chance to profit. Todd Frazier, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jose Bautista, Dominic Smith, Devin Mesoraco, and Amed Rosario are all widely available. As for Marlins, Derek Dietrich and Brian Anderson are the best of the batch since J.T. Realmuto is 100 percent owned. Justin Bour is around in shallow formats while Starlin Castro, Lewis Brinson, Cameron Maybin, and Miguel Rojas have some lesser potential.
The Mariners are the next club to visit New York starting on Tuesday. You'll have to reach deep to find free M's like Ben Gamel, Denard Span, and Guillermo Heredia. None of them are stand out performers. Ryon Healy is floating around in some shallow leagues. Beware, the New York bullpen can overpower visitors to Yankees Stadium.
Detroit has a two game series at Great American Ballpark. Then the Cubs visit for a four game set. The good news about the Tigers is nearly their entire team can be rostered straight off the waiver wire in most leagues. Only Nick Castellanos is complete unavailable. The bad news is the unit as a whole isn't very effective. As for Cubs, very few can be found for free, although Albert Almora is hot and only nine percent owned. Ben Zobrist, Jason Heyward, Addison Russell, and Ian Happ are some alternatives.
Power Spotlight
Prior to this season, Gleyber Torres never hit more than 11 home runs in a single campaign. He achieved that in 2016, spread across 547 plate appearances at the High-A level. He flashed a power breakout last year in his age 20 season, but injury caused him to miss most the season. Now, in just 175 major league plate appearances, Torres has 13 home runs. Is he a premium power source?
We can't talk about a Yankees prospect without a nod towards Yankees Stadium. As Didi Gregorius has taught, the power bar is lowered in New York. Gregorius features tepid exit velocity with plentiful home runs. It's no accident that 12 of his 14 homers have come at home. Torres has shown less reliance on the small venue, hitting seven of his 13 home runs on the road. Remember, this is all small sample and non-predictive. We're just observing what has happened to date.
So we know the park is ripe for power, but what about his batting profile. Torres has combined a 44 percent fly ball rate with plenty of pulled, hard contact. His 26 percent HR/FB ratio feels fluky. We should regress heavily towards the mean, especially given his history of HR/FB ratios in the 11 to 13 percent range. Let's say he receives another 350 plate appearances. Applying his current batted ball profile and the regressed home run rate produces a 14 home run projection over the rest of the season. I don't think anybody will complain if Torres hits 27 big flies this year. This projection is completely blind to Yankee Stadium too.
As with any young rookie, there are red flags. Pitchers and scouting reports are bound to discover a flaw in his approach. The time it takes Torres to adjust will greatly affect his fantasy value and 2018 home run potential. Additionally, despite a long history as a contact hitter, Torres has a 26.9 percent strikeout rate supported by a 14.7 percent swinging strike rate. Although he's making quality contact, his new whifftastic approach is an obvious area in need of improvement.
All in all, Torres is likely to experience regression in more than just his HR/FB ratio. Fortunately, he's probably a fundamentally better player than what we've seen from his peripherals to date. Genuine improvement can serve to counteract any natural declines from fluky performance. With the help of his home park, Torres seems likely to breach the 30 home run plateau at some point in his career.
For Opening Week, I provided a detailed report on home run park factors (skip to the part titled "Park Factors" on page two). This section will be used to highlight which teams are visiting the most homer happy venues – namely Citizen's Bank Park, Coors Field, Yankee Stadium, and Great American Ballpark.
The Cardinals will visit Philadelphia for a three game set. Although they aren't free agents, it's a great time to use players like Matt Carpenter, Tommy Pham, and Marcell Ozuna. All three were buy low targets at some point this season – the time to buy is now for Pham. Digging deeper, Harrison Bader is playing regularly in place of Dexter Fowler. Yairo Munoz, Jedd Gyorko, and Yadier Molina are all available in many 12 team formats.
The Rockies will be home all week, hosting the Mets for four games and the Marlins for three contests. If you jumped early on the Brandon Nimmo bandwagon, here is a chance to profit. Todd Frazier, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jose Bautista, Dominic Smith, Devin Mesoraco, and Amed Rosario are all widely available. As for Marlins, Derek Dietrich and Brian Anderson are the best of the batch since J.T. Realmuto is 100 percent owned. Justin Bour is around in shallow formats while Starlin Castro, Lewis Brinson, Cameron Maybin, and Miguel Rojas have some lesser potential.
The Mariners are the next club to visit New York starting on Tuesday. You'll have to reach deep to find free M's like Ben Gamel, Denard Span, and Guillermo Heredia. None of them are stand out performers. Ryon Healy is floating around in some shallow leagues. Beware, the New York bullpen can overpower visitors to Yankees Stadium.
Detroit has a two game series at Great American Ballpark. Then the Cubs visit for a four game set. The good news about the Tigers is nearly their entire team can be rostered straight off the waiver wire in most leagues. Only Nick Castellanos is complete unavailable. The bad news is the unit as a whole isn't very effective. As for Cubs, very few can be found for free, although Albert Almora is hot and only nine percent owned. Ben Zobrist, Jason Heyward, Addison Russell, and Ian Happ are some alternatives.
Power Spotlight
Prior to this season, Gleyber Torres never hit more than 11 home runs in a single campaign. He achieved that in 2016, spread across 547 plate appearances at the High-A level. He flashed a power breakout last year in his age 20 season, but injury caused him to miss most the season. Now, in just 175 major league plate appearances, Torres has 13 home runs. Is he a premium power source?
We can't talk about a Yankees prospect without a nod towards Yankees Stadium. As Didi Gregorius has taught, the power bar is lowered in New York. Gregorius features tepid exit velocity with plentiful home runs. It's no accident that 12 of his 14 homers have come at home. Torres has shown less reliance on the small venue, hitting seven of his 13 home runs on the road. Remember, this is all small sample and non-predictive. We're just observing what has happened to date.
So we know the park is ripe for power, but what about his batting profile. Torres has combined a 44 percent fly ball rate with plenty of pulled, hard contact. His 26 percent HR/FB ratio feels fluky. We should regress heavily towards the mean, especially given his history of HR/FB ratios in the 11 to 13 percent range. Let's say he receives another 350 plate appearances. Applying his current batted ball profile and the regressed home run rate produces a 14 home run projection over the rest of the season. I don't think anybody will complain if Torres hits 27 big flies this year. This projection is completely blind to Yankee Stadium too.
As with any young rookie, there are red flags. Pitchers and scouting reports are bound to discover a flaw in his approach. The time it takes Torres to adjust will greatly affect his fantasy value and 2018 home run potential. Additionally, despite a long history as a contact hitter, Torres has a 26.9 percent strikeout rate supported by a 14.7 percent swinging strike rate. Although he's making quality contact, his new whifftastic approach is an obvious area in need of improvement.
All in all, Torres is likely to experience regression in more than just his HR/FB ratio. Fortunately, he's probably a fundamentally better player than what we've seen from his peripherals to date. Genuine improvement can serve to counteract any natural declines from fluky performance. With the help of his home park, Torres seems likely to breach the 30 home run plateau at some point in his career.
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