Three things happened this week. The Felipe Vazquez scare continues in Pittsburgh. Seranthony Dominguez recorded a two-inning save, his second such save of the season. Last but certainly not least, Brad Ziegler is out as the Marlins closer.
Over in Pittsburgh, manager Clint Hurdle has issued the dreaded vote of confidence. After leaving the game on May 27 with an apparent serious injury, Vazquez miraculously recovered in time to pitch the following Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. He performed well in the first two of those three appearances. Alas, three in a row was too much. On Thursday, he allowed five runs without recording an out – picking up the loss along the way. He returned to action yesterday, notching two strikeouts in a clean inning. The Pirates bullpen is rather deep. Kyle Crick is the latest handcuff. Richard Rodriguez, Tyler Glasnow, and Edgar Santana are all candidates to step in as well.
The Phillies are fighting a losing battle against the Nationals and Braves in the NL East. Strong contenders in the NL Central and NL West will make it hard for Philadelphia to capture a Wild Card. They can’t afford to give away games in the late innings. Thus, Hector Neris’ string of four straight appearances with a run allowed is… less than ideal. Seranthony Dominguez has allowed only two hits (no walks or runs) in 14.2 innings. Despite the short track record, it’s quite clear he’s the best reliever on the roster. While the Phillies may prefer to use him in a multi-inning role like Brewers fireman Josh Hader, perhaps they should put a pin in that plan.
The title of “Marlins closer” only matters to fantasy baseball managers. After a couple consecutive losses, the club decided to test some of their other pitchers in the ninth inning. Ziegler will shift into a middle relief role. He was always miscast as a closer. Kyle Barraclough is the man to roster in Miami, but there’s cause for concern. In 26.1 innings, he has 9.23 K/9, 5.13 BB/9, and a 1.37 ERA. However, the ERA is built upon a .117 BABIP. He doesn’t do anything special to limit quality of contact. In fact, hitters have managed a robust 37 percent hard hit rate. Wildness and regression probably add up to a 4.00 ERA going forward.
Let’s shift to the saves leaderboard. Keone Kela, Aroldis Chapman, and Sean Doolittle tied for the weekly lead with three saves apiece. For the season, Edwin Diaz’s 21 saves pace the league. Craig Kimbrel and Wade Davis are in close pursuit with 19 saves each.
Now, shall we go to the tiers?
Tier 1: The Elite (2)
Aroldis Chapman, New York Yankees
Craig Kimbrel, Boston Red Sox
They’re still really good. Chapman did allow a run last Wednesday, but he was working with a comfy three run lead.
Tier 2: Nearly Elite (10)
Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers
Edwin Diaz, Seattle Mariners
Sean Doolittle, Washington Nationals
Brad Hand, San Diego Padres
Blake Treinen, Oakland AthleticsWade Davis, Colorado Rockies
Corey Knebel, Milwaukee Brewers Raisel Iglesias, Cincinnati Reds Brandon Morrow, Chicago CubsCody Allen, Cleveland Indians
Last episode, I said Jansen was just one good week from rejoining the elite tier. He promptly confused me by averaging 91.7 mph on Thursday. We’re looking to see him around 93 mph or higher. We have a lot of data on Jansen. His ERA is closely associated with his velocity. When he’s down in the 91 mph range, he’s a 4.00 ERA guy. When he’s sitting 94, we can bank a sub-2.00 ERA. Since the shabby velo outing, he rebounded while at Coors Field. He did allow a run while recording the save on Friday.
Diaz blew the save on Friday. He immediately recovered with saves on Saturday and Sunday. Doolittle had a typically uneventful week.
Hand recorded another weird hold on Sunday. He came in the eighth to face Joey Votto and Scooter Gennett while protecting a 5-2 lead. Gennett actually hit a solo home run. However, the Padres pushed the lead back up to three runs in the home half of the eighth. Kirby Yates earned the save. For those looking to scrounge a few freebie saves, it looks like the Padres are increasingly eager to use Hand for tough left-handed hitters in the eighth inning. Yates could vulture a few more saves.
The Dodgers got to Davis on Sunday, piling up three runs in the process. He now has a 1.32 ERA on the road and a 5.91 ERA at home. I suspect those two rates will converge somewhere in the middle.
Allen seems to hit a rough patch every season. When the dust clears, he’s always a top five closer. This past week included a blown save loss and two saves in 2.1 innings. He allowed three runs across two outings – all scored via home run. History suggests I should be patient rather than demote him.
Last week, I cracked the third tier in half. Upon further reflection, I really just needed to promote a few guys into the “near elite” group. Treinen, Knebel, and Morrow have all the aspects of a valuable top closer. Iglesias is back from a short stint on the disabled list.
Tier 3: Maybe Good? (6)
Ken Giles, Houston Astros
Jeurys Familia, New York Mets
Kelvin Herrera, Kansas City Royals
Felipe Vazquez, Pittsburgh Pirates
Brad Boxberger, Arizona Diamondbacks
Bud Norris, St. Louis Cardinals
Giles flubbed a non-save situation on Sunday. I imagine the Astros don’t feel super confident about their 5.21 ERA closer, especially since they avoided using him in the postseason. However, they’re undoubtedly very aware of his advanced peripherals which support an ERA in the 2.00 to 3.25 range. I don’t think his job is at risk, although that can quickly change with another bad outing.
Norris had a week to forget. On Thursday, he was brought in for one batter in the eighth inning. With two inherited runners on base in a 5-5 tie, he promptly coughed up a three-run home run. He was immediately removed. The Cardinals later won when Vazquez melted down. A couple days later, Norris allowed a game tying solo home run. Once again, the St. Louis bats bailed him out. This time, he even notched a vulture win for his owners.
Tier 4: Not Too Bad (4)
Keone Kela, Texas Rangers
Arodys Vizcaino, Atlanta Braves
Fernando Rodney, Minnesota Twins
Blake Parker, Los Angeles Angels
Kela had a solid week, allowing a run to go with five strikeouts and three saves in three innings. Vizcaino and Rodney were similarly solid.
Angels reliever Justin Anderson was handed the save on Sunday, leading to some worry that Parker had been ousted. You see, Parker had blown the save on Saturday. However, it was a false alarm. Parker also pitched on Friday so he just needed a day of rest on Sunday. He returned to the ninth inning for a save on Monday.
Tier 5: Unsettled (8)
Nate Jones, Chicago White Sox
Shane Greene, Detroit Tigers
Hector Neris, Seranthony Dominguez, Philadelphia Phillies
Brad Brach, Baltimore Orioles
Hunter Strickland, Mark Melancon, San Francisco Giants
Ryan Tepera, Toronto Blue Jays
Kyle Barraclough, Miami Marlins
Sergio Romo, Chaz Roe, Jose Alvarado, Tampa Bay Rays
I suppose we need to be on high alert in Chicago again. Jones very noisily blew the save in a loss last night. He allowed three runs while trying to protect a two-run lead.
Neris hasn’t earned a save in weeks, but he is still in the eighth and ninth inning mix along with Dominguez, Edubray Ramos, Tommy Hunter, Luis Garcia, and Victor Arano. Truly all hands are on deck. Dominguez is the best long term bet, but Neris still has a small chance to cling to the job.
Melancon is back in action, but he’s still working the middle innings. He’s twice pitched the seventh inning, piling up five strikeouts in six batters faced. Strickland maintains a very tenuous grasp on the job.
Romo is serving double duty as the closer and occasional starter. This ensures saves will be split between a trio of relievers. What a mess for fantasy owners.
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Injured
Zach Britton, Baltimore Orioles (Achilles, forearm)
Keynan Middleton, Los Angeles Angels (elbow – out for season)
***Roberto Osuna, Toronto Blue Jays (administrative leave)
Darren O’Day, Baltimore Orioles (elbow)
Barring a setback, Britton will return by mid-June. He’s made three scoreless appearances. In 3.1 innings, he’s notched four strikeouts. All seven balls in play have been on the ground. Sounds like typical Britton to me.
The Deposed
Dominic Leone, St. Louis Cardinals (injured)
Greg Holland, St. Louis Cardinals (injured)
Cam Bedrosian, Los Angeles Angels
Joakim Soria, Chicago White Sox
Alex Colome, Seattle Mariners
Tyler Clippard, Toronto Blue Jays
Brad Ziegler, Miami Marlins
Ziegler is the latest reliever to join the list. Neris and Jones are on the hot seat while Brach and Strickland may soon be replaced by players returning from the disabled list.
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The Steals Department
Improbably, Didi Gregorius led all base thieves with four steals in the last week. Gregorius is an excellent athlete, but he isn’t usually a threat on the bases. Dee Gordon was the only other runner to nab three bags. All in all, not the best week for those in need of steals. The seasonal lead reverts to Gordon (19) with Ender Inciarte (18) and Trea Turner (16) trailing.
The easiest catchers to pick upon include Robinson Chirinos, Kurt Suzuki, Tyler Flowers, Devin Mesoraco, and Russell Martin. Notably, Chirinos has started to lose a few starts due to his struggles controlling base runners and a 41 percent strikeout rate. If you’re stolen base prone, you better at least hit well.
Tony Kemp has an interesting upcoming four game series against the Rangers. He may sit a couple since Texas is bringing three lefties to the bump. However, Kemp can hit both hands. He only sits versus southpaws to get other players like Jake Marisnick some reps. If he happens to play all four games, I’d bet on at least one steal opposite Chirinos.
The Dodgers and Mets are up next for the Braves. These aren’t the best clubs to target for steals. Perhaps Yasiel Puig or Chris Taylor have floated onto your waiver wire due to dissatisfied owners. It’s unlikely. Brandon Nimmo, Todd Frazier, and Amed Rosario are the players to try on the Mets. As for targeting Mesoraco, only Aaron Hicks is both available and a potential thief.
Upcoming opponents for the Blue Jays include the Orioles and Rays. If you can snag Craig Gentry in a rare start, he’s the only Oriole with a tendency to run. He also has a piddling .221/.287/.267 batting line. A slew of Rays could be of use, starting with Mallex Smith and continuing with Joey Wendle, Carlos Gomez, Johnny Field, and Matt Duffy.
Keone Kela, Texas Rangers
Arodys Vizcaino, Atlanta Braves
Fernando Rodney, Minnesota Twins
Blake Parker, Los Angeles Angels
Kela had a solid week, allowing a run to go with five strikeouts and three saves in three innings. Vizcaino and Rodney were similarly solid.
Angels reliever Justin Anderson was handed the save on Sunday, leading to some worry that Parker had been ousted. You see, Parker had blown the save on Saturday. However, it was a false alarm. Parker also pitched on Friday so he just needed a day of rest on Sunday. He returned to the ninth inning for a save on Monday.
Tier 5: Unsettled (8)
Nate Jones, Chicago White SoxShane Greene, Detroit Tigers
Hector Neris, Seranthony Dominguez, Philadelphia Phillies
Brad Brach, Baltimore Orioles
Hunter Strickland, Mark Melancon, San Francisco Giants
Ryan Tepera, Toronto Blue Jays
Kyle Barraclough, Miami Marlins Sergio Romo, Chaz Roe, Jose Alvarado, Tampa Bay RaysI suppose we need to be on high alert in Chicago again. Jones very noisily blew the save in a loss last night. He allowed three runs while trying to protect a two-run lead.
Neris hasn’t earned a save in weeks, but he is still in the eighth and ninth inning mix along with Dominguez, Edubray Ramos, Tommy Hunter, Luis Garcia, and Victor Arano. Truly all hands are on deck. Dominguez is the best long term bet, but Neris still has a small chance to cling to the job.
Melancon is back in action, but he’s still working the middle innings. He’s twice pitched the seventh inning, piling up five strikeouts in six batters faced. Strickland maintains a very tenuous grasp on the job.
Romo is serving double duty as the closer and occasional starter. This ensures saves will be split between a trio of relievers. What a mess for fantasy owners.
*********************************************
Injured
Zach Britton, Baltimore Orioles (Achilles, forearm)
Keynan Middleton, Los Angeles Angels (elbow – out for season)
***Roberto Osuna, Toronto Blue Jays (administrative leave)
Darren O’Day, Baltimore Orioles (elbow)
Barring a setback, Britton will return by mid-June. He’s made three scoreless appearances. In 3.1 innings, he’s notched four strikeouts. All seven balls in play have been on the ground. Sounds like typical Britton to me.
The Deposed
Dominic Leone, St. Louis Cardinals (injured)
Greg Holland, St. Louis Cardinals (injured)
Cam Bedrosian, Los Angeles Angels
Joakim Soria, Chicago White Sox
Alex Colome, Seattle Mariners
Tyler Clippard, Toronto Blue Jays
Brad Ziegler, Miami Marlins
Ziegler is the latest reliever to join the list. Neris and Jones are on the hot seat while Brach and Strickland may soon be replaced by players returning from the disabled list.
*********************************************
The Steals Department
Improbably, Didi Gregorius led all base thieves with four steals in the last week. Gregorius is an excellent athlete, but he isn’t usually a threat on the bases. Dee Gordon was the only other runner to nab three bags. All in all, not the best week for those in need of steals. The seasonal lead reverts to Gordon (19) with Ender Inciarte (18) and Trea Turner (16) trailing.
The easiest catchers to pick upon include Robinson Chirinos, Kurt Suzuki, Tyler Flowers, Devin Mesoraco, and Russell Martin. Notably, Chirinos has started to lose a few starts due to his struggles controlling base runners and a 41 percent strikeout rate. If you’re stolen base prone, you better at least hit well.
Tony Kemp has an interesting upcoming four game series against the Rangers. He may sit a couple since Texas is bringing three lefties to the bump. However, Kemp can hit both hands. He only sits versus southpaws to get other players like Jake Marisnick some reps. If he happens to play all four games, I’d bet on at least one steal opposite Chirinos.
The Dodgers and Mets are up next for the Braves. These aren’t the best clubs to target for steals. Perhaps Yasiel Puig or Chris Taylor have floated onto your waiver wire due to dissatisfied owners. It’s unlikely. Brandon Nimmo, Todd Frazier, and Amed Rosario are the players to try on the Mets. As for targeting Mesoraco, only Aaron Hicks is both available and a potential thief.
Upcoming opponents for the Blue Jays include the Orioles and Rays. If you can snag Craig Gentry in a rare start, he’s the only Oriole with a tendency to run. He also has a piddling .221/.287/.267 batting line. A slew of Rays could be of use, starting with Mallex Smith and continuing with Joey Wendle, Carlos Gomez, Johnny Field, and Matt Duffy.
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