Buy Low and Sell High

Justus Sheffield - bait

The 10-pack of trade tips this week should have something for those in leagues big or small. We will touch on the trade value of some star players such as Josh Donaldson and Eddie Rosario, while also looking at deep-league options such as Kole Calhoun and Logan Morrison. It is also worth taking a moment to note that while owners can still look for value-based trades during the second half of July, we have reached the point in the season when owners in roto leagues need to focus on players who can make a major impact in their tightest categories.

Buy Low

Josh Donaldson, Third baseman (Blue Jays): Donaldson could be the ultimate buy-low candidate right now. His 2018 season has been a disaster including multiple DL stints and disappointing results (.757 OPS) during 36 games of action. But the slugger is due back in the next couple weeks, and I am optimistic that he can have a strong finish to an otherwise forgettable season. My positive vibes have little to do with the calf injury that he has been rehabbing and are more related to the condition of his right shoulder. Donaldson missed time earlier this season with shoulder inflammation, and he did not have his trademark power stroke upon returning in early May. But a two-month reprieve to rest his calf strain could be just what he needed to regain shoulder strength. Additionally, there is a chance that Donaldson will return just in time for Toronto to deal the slugger to a top-notch lineup on a contending team.

Edwin Encarnacion, First baseman (Indians): Encarnacion has been fine this season (22 homers, 66 RBIs), but he has the potential to be even better down the stretch. His lofty RBI total is mostly the result of hitting behind Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor, and the 35-year-old could be driving in runs at an even higher rate if not for his struggles to collect base knocks (.231 average). The good news is that Encarnacion is known as a slow starter who often does his best work later in the year. In fact, from 2013-17, the slugger has posted a .934 OPS after the All-Star break that is 67 points higher than his mark prior to the season’s only multi-day rest period. With a similar late-summer surge this year, Encarnacion could lead the Majors in RBIs from this point forward.

Logan Morrison, First baseman (Twins): Admittedly, this advice is for those in AL-only or 15-team mixed leagues. Morrison has been virtually non-existent as a fantasy asset this year, producing just 11 homers and a .193 average across 264 at-bats. He has been especially bad of late, logging a .578 OPS in June and spending part of July on the disabled list. But Morrison should return soon, and there are reasons to believe he can be better than he has been thus far. According to Statcast, his batting average should be 58 points higher and his slugging percentage ought to be 130 points higher than his current mark of .367. His 2017 results (38 homers, 85 RBIs) show what the 30-year-old can do when things are going right. Overall, Morrison is worth a minimal investment on the deep-league trade market.

Kole Calhoun, Outfielder (Angels): My second tip for deep-league owners this week is to trade for Calhoun, who has terrible stats this season (.187/.237/.319 slash line) but has shown some signs of life of late. The veteran recovered from a miserable start to post a respectable .742 OPS in June before really finding his stride by batting .298 with six homers to this point in July. Calhoun is hardly in the class of star disappointments such as Donaldson and Encarnacion, but he is typically a mixed-league asset. After all, the 30-year-old produced at least 18 homers, 71 RBIs and 77 runs scored in each of the previous three seasons. Calhoun has dealt with extremely poor fortune this season, and Statcast shows that his batting average should be .244. He won’t be a game-changer down the stretch, but Calhoun could be much more valuable than his miserable season-long stats indicate.

Adam Duvall, Outfielder (Reds): Owners who are looking for a low-priced option to empower a move up the RBI standings should make a reasonable offer for Duvall. The slugger has driven in 60 runs across 298 at-bats, and he is only slightly off his 30-homer pace from the previous two seasons. His rate of RBIs could also experience an uptick in the second half if his batted-ball luck (.235 BABIP) normalizes. The potential favorable fortune on batted balls would push his current .201 average to resemble his .249 mark from a year ago.




Sell High

Albert Almora Jr., Outfielder (Cubs): According to Statcast, deep-league owners who are using Almora for a batting average boost are living on borrowed time. The outfielder is hitting .319 but owns an xBA (expected batting average) of just .247. Additionally, his xSLG is nearly 100 points lower than his actual mark. Overall, Almora has shown poor plate discipline (0.34 BB:K ratio) and an inability to produce hard contact (29.2 percent) and line drives (19.0 percent) this season. His batting profile looks nothing like that of a .300 hitter.

Eric Hosmer, First baseman (Padres): The list of players with the lowest average fly-ball distance is full of slap hitters such as Travis Jankowski, Dee Gordon and Jon Jay. But none of those players can match the lowly average fly ball distance of Hosmer (116 feet). In addition to struggling to produce powerful fly balls, the first baseman rarely slugs a fly ball in the first place (17.4 percent). Even rookie fantasy owners will recognize that they don’t want to roster corner infielders who have Hosmer’s limited power potential, especially when those players hit in one of baseball’s worst lineups. Hosmer’s trade value may not be especially high right now, but his owners should get whatever they can for him.

Sean Manaea, Starter (A’s): Although the best sell-high window for Manaea was back in April, there is another opening to trade away his services right now. The left-hander has enjoyed stellar batted-ball luck this year (.223 BABIP) despite giving up his share of line drives (22.0 percent) and hard contact (38.6 percent). His 4.50 FIP gives owners a better picture of someone who should be a marginal ratios asset, and his meager 16.7 strikeout rate shows that Manaea has limited upside. Owners of the 26-year-old should consider trading him away for help at a position of need.

Eddie Rosario, Outfielder (Twins): Rosario is having a special season, easily ranking among the top-10 fantasy outfielders while batting .310 with 19 homers and 61 RBIs. While he should get plenty of credit for making improvements with his fly-ball rate (44.8 percent) and hard-contact rate (38.3 percent), the 26-year-old could be outperforming his skill set at the moment. His plate discipline remains poor (0.32 BB:K ratio), and according to Statcast, his batting average should be a less-impressive mark of .260. Rosario could tail off from a personal perspective down the stretch, and he might also receive less help from a Twins lineup that could lose some key pieces via trade in the coming days.

Scooter Gennett, Second baseman (Reds): Like Rosario, Gennett may not be quite as good as his 2018 numbers indicate. According to Statcast, his outstanding .326 average should be similar to his .285 xBA. His .521 slugging percentage should more closely resemble his less-impressive .468 xSLG. Also, like Rosario, the trade deadline could have a negative impact on Gennett;s fantasy value. But in this case, it would be the 28-year-old himself moving, as he is a prime trade candidate if he does not sign a contract extension by the end of this month. Although he could fare well with a new team, players who are significantly outperforming expectations are usually best left undisturbed.